₦airaland Forum

It is now very evident that a lot of the pro-zoning champions are only using that to drive their personal inordinate ambitions.

In the said zoning of the PDP, Offices are zoned to geo-political regions e.g SW,SE,NC etc. This explains why PDP retained the senate presidency in the SE(Evans ewerem,chuba okadigbo,pius anyim,ken nnamani) throughout the  OBJ years. All other positions followed the same pattern e.g Speaker,party chairman etc. It was not just a case of NORTH and SOUTH as the zoning champions seem to be saying now.

Now we have a case where the NORTH WEST(yaradua from katsina) has done juts one term and need to run another term to balance the equation. [size=18pt]What I find now are two northern politicians that are struggling to get the PDP ticket in the spirit of zoning. ATIKU IS FROM NORTH EAST (adamawa) and IBB FROM NORTH CENTRAL(Niger).

Even if we are to continue with zoning, can someone please tell these two desperados that the states that qualify are  ;

sokoto
zamfara
kebbi
katsina
kano
jigawa
kaduna[/size]

Una dey mad? which kind question be dis? Our super eagles performed poorly at the WC , but to suggest that this falconets will even get a draw is the biggest insult. These falconets can not even beat the main falcons team. The best players in the falconets are fringe players in the main super falcons team.

For the female game they tried, but any selected u-16 male side will beat them silly not to talk of our super eagles. abi una head no correct?

He made his policies so sophisticated that people only understand their irrelevance at the end, when it is too late.

^^^^^^^^^^^
Why u dey vex na ? abi the guy done show understanding with this statement:

Fellow Nigerians, I wish to finally acknowledge the tremendous value of your patience and understanding, especially in the face of national provocation

An Address By the President, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces
of Nigeria, General Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida, CRF, FSS, MNI to the
Nation on Saturday, 26 June, 1993


"Laying the Foundation of A Viable Democracy and the Path of Honour"




Fellow Nigerians, I address you today with a deep sense of world  history and particularly of the history of our great country._{](He actually made history here)}[/color] In the  aftermath of the recently annulled Presidential Election, I feel, as I believe you yourself feel, a profound sense of disappointment at the outcome of our last efforts at laying the foundation of a viable democratic system of government in Nigeria.

I therefore wish, on behalf of myself and members of the National Defence and Security Council and indeed of my entire administration, to feel with my fellow countrymen and women for the cancellation of the election. It was a rather disappointing experience in the course of carrying through the last election of the transition to civil rule programme.

Nigeria has come a long way since this administration assumed power and leadership about eight years ago. In the attempt to grapple with the critical and monumental problems and challenges of National existence and social progress, this administration inaugurated and pursued sound and justifiable policies and programmes of reform.

These policies and programmes have touched virtually all aspects of our national life – the economy, political process, social structures, external relations, bureaucracy and even the family system. I believe strongly that in understanding, conception,
formulation and articulation, these policies and programmes are not only sound but also comparatively unassailable. I believe too that history, with the passage of time, would certainly score the administration high in its governance of our country.

Let me also express my deep conviction that the core strategy and structures of our reform policies and programmes, as enunciated in 1986/87 would, for a very long time, remain relevant and durable in the course of changing our country positively. I believe that at the exit of the Administration from power, we would leave behind for prosperity, a country with an economy, the structures of which have been turned around for good. The average Nigerian person has come to reconcile himself with the fact that his or her social progress remain essentially in his or her hands in collaboration with other fellow Nigerians and not merely relying on what government alone could provide for him or her. The days are gone for good, when men and women trooped to government establishments for employment and for benevolence.

This administration has built the foundation that would take Nigerians away from their previous colonially-induced motivations and the encumbrances of colonialism. We have laid the foundation for self-reliant economic development and social justice. We have established a new basis in our country in which economic liberalization would continue to flourish alongside democratic forces and deregulated power structure. In all these, the average Nigerian person has more than ever before this administration imbibed and assimilated the values of hard work, resilience and self-confidence.

It is true that in the course of implementing our reform policies and programmes and especially because of the visionary zeal with which we approached the assignment and responded to incidental pressures of governance, we engendered a number of social forces in the country.

This is so because we sought to challenge and transform extant social forces which had in the past impeded growth and development of our country. We also sought to deal with the new forces to which our programmes of action gave rise. Thus in dealing with the dynamics of both the old and new social forces, we ran into certain difficulties.

In particular, during the course of handling the interlocking relationships between the old and new political forces and institutions, some problems had arisen leading us into a number of difficulties and thereby necessitating our having to tamper with the
rules and regulations laid down in the political programme. As a result, the administration unwittingly attracted enormous public suspicions of its intentions and objectives. Accordingly, we have experienced certain shortfalls and conflicting responses to the pulls and pushes of governance in the course of policy implementation.

I believe that areas of difficulties with the transition programme, especially from the last quarter of 1992 to the recent cancelled presidential election, derived primarily from the shortfalls in implementing the programmes of actions which, though objectively taken, may have caused a deviation from the original framework and structure of the programme.

Fellow Nigerians, it is true that by the cancelled presidential election, we all found the nation at a peculiar bar of history which was neither bargained for, nor was it envisaged in the reform programmes of transition as enunciated in 1986/87. In the circumstance, the administration had no option than to respond appropriately to the unfortunate experience of terminating the presidential election. Our actions are in full conformity with the original objectives of the transition to civil programme. It was also in conformity with the avowed commitment of the administration to advance the cause of national unity, stability, and democracy. In annulling the presidential election, this administration was keenly aware of its promise in November 1992 that it would disengage and institute a return to democracy on August 27, 1993. We are determined to keep the promise.

[size=15pt]Since this transition, and indeed any transition, must have an end, I believe that our transition programme should and must come to an end, honestly and honourably[/size].(_{[color=#990000][/did it really end honourably? a journey from 1985-1993 that climaxed with an annulment and an illegitimate interim govt?)}

History will bear witness that as an administration we have always striven, in all our policy decisions, to build the foundation of lasting democracy. Lasting democracy is not a temporary show of excitement and manipulation by an over-articulate section of the elite and its captive audience; lasting democracy is a permanent diet to nurture the soul of the whole nation and the political process.

Therefore, it is logical, as we have always insisted upon, that lasting democracy must be equated with political stability.

Informed by our sad experience of history, we require nothing short of a foundation for lasting democracy. As an administration, we cannot afford to leave Nigerian into a Third Republic with epileptic convulsions in its democratic health. Nigeria must therefore confront her own reality; she must solve her problems notwithstanding other existing models of democracy in other parts of the world.

In my address to the nation in October 1992, when the first presidential primaries were cancelled, I had cause to remind our country men and women that there is nowhere iin the world in which the practice of democracy is the same, even if the principles are similar and even for countries sharing the same intellectual tradition and cultural foundation. The history of our country is not the history of any other country in the world which is either practicing advanced democracy or struggling to lay the foundation for democracy. Yet, in spite of the uniqueness and peculiarities of Nigeria, there are certain prerequisites which constitute an irreducible minimum for democracy. Such essential factors include:

A. Free and fair elections;
B. Uncoerced expression of voters preference in election;
C. Respect for electorate as unfettered final arbiter on elections;
D. Decorum and fairness on the part of the electoral umpires;
E. Absolute respect for the rule of law.

Fellow Nigerians, you would recall that it was precisely because the presidential primaries of last year did not meet the basic requirements of free and fair election that the Armed Forces Ruling Council, the, had good reason to cancel those primaries. The recently annulled presidential election was similarly afflicted by these problems.

Even before the presidential elections, and indeed at the party conventions, we had full knowledge of the bad signals pertaining to the enormous breach of the rules and regulations of democracy elections. But because we were determined to keep faith with the deadline of 27th August 1993 for the return of civil rule, we overlooked the reported breaches. Unfortunately, these breaches continued into the presidential election of June 12, 1993, on an even greater proportion.(_{f o.o.l}[/color])

There were allegations of irregularities and other acts of bad conduct leveled against the presidential candidates but NEC went ahead and cleared them. There were proofs as well as documented evidence of widespread use of money during the party primaries as well as the presidential election. These were the same bad conduct for which the party presidential primaries of 1992 were cancelled.

Evidence available to government put the total amount of money spent by the presidential candidates as over two billion , one hundred million naira (N2.1 billion). The use of money was again the major source of undermining the electoral process.(_{so how much do you now plan to spend in your already failed presidential bid?)}[color=#990000]

Both these allegations and evidence were known to the National Defence and Security Council before the holding of the June 12, 1993 election, the National Defence and Security Council overlooked these areas of problems in its determination to fulfill the promise to hand over to an elected president on due date.

Apart from the tremendous negative use of money during the party primaries and presidential elections, there were moral issues which were also overlooked by the Defence and National Security Council. There were cases of documented and confirmed conflict of interest between the government and both presidential aspirants which would compromise their positions and responsibilities were they to become
president. We believe that politics and government are not ends in themselves. Rather, service and effective amelioration of the condition of our people must remain the true purpose of politics.

[size=15pt]It is true that the presidential election was generally seento be free, fair and peaceful.  However,there was in fact a huge array of election malpractices virtually in all thestates of the federation before the actual voting began.  There were authenticated reports of theelection malpractices against party agents, officials of the National ElectoralCommission and also some members of the electorate.[/size]

If all of these were clear violations of the electoral law there were proofs of manipulations through offer and acceptance of money and other forms of inducement against officials of the National Electoral Commission and members of the electorate. There were also evidence of conflict in the process of authentication and clearance of credentials of the presidential candidates.  Indeed, up to the last few hours to the election, we continued in our earnest steadfastness with our transition deadline, to overlook vital facts.

For example, following the council’s deliberation which followed the court injunction suspending the election, majority of members ofthe National Defence and Security Council supported postponement of theelection by one week.  This was to allow NEC enough time to reach all the voters, especially in the rural areas, about the postponement.  But persuaded by NEC that it was capable of relaying the information to the entire electorate within the few hours left before the election, the council, unfortunately, dropped the idea of shifting the voting day.  Now, we know better.  The conduct of the election, the behaviour of the candidates and post-election responses continued to elicit signals which the nation can only ignore at its peril.

It is against the foregoing background that the administration became highly concerned when these political conflicts and breaches were carried to the court.

It must be acknowledged that the performance of the judiciary on this occasion was less than satisfactory.  The judiciary has been the bastion of the hopes and liberties of our citizens.

Therefore, when it became clear that the courts had become intimidated and subjected to the manipulation of the political process, and vested interests then the entire political system was in clear dangers.

This administration could not continue to watch the various high courts carry on their long drawn out processes and contradictory decisions while the nation slides into chaos.

It was under this circumstance that the National Defence and Security Council decided that it is in the supreme interest of law and order, political stability and peace that the presidential election be annulled.  As an administration, we have had special interest and concern not only for the immediate needs of our society, but also in laying the foundation for generations to come.

To continue action on the basis of the June 12, 1993 election, and to proclaim and swear in a president who encouraged a campaign of divide and rule among our ethnic groups would have been detrimental to the survival of the Third Republic.  Our need is for peace, stability and continuity of politics in the interest of all our people. (_{see who is talking}[/color]?)

Fellow countrymen and women, although the National Electoral Commission and the Centre for Democratic Studies officially invited foreign observers for the presidential elections, the administration also considered it as important as a democratic society, that our activities and electoral conduct must be open not only to the citizenry of our country but also to the rest of the world.   In spite of this commitment, the administration did not and cannot accept that foreign countries should interfere in our internal affairs and undermine our sovereignty.

The presidential election was not an exercise imposed on Nigerians by the United Nations or by the wishes of some global policemen of democracy.  It was a decision embarked upon independently by the government of our country and for the interest of our country.  This is because, we believe, just like other countries, that democracy and democratization are primary values which Nigerians should cultivate, sustain and consolidate so as to enhance freedom, liberties and social development of the citizenry.

The actions of these foreign countries are most unfortunate and highly regrettable.  There is nowhere in the history of our country or indeed of the third world where these countries can be said to love Nigeria or Nigerians any more that the love we have for ourselves and for our country. Neither can they claim to love Nigeria any more than this administration loves our country. (_{YES O, YOU REALLY LOVED AND STILL LOVE NIGERIA. OKU IFE)}[color=#990000]

Accordingly, I wish to state that this administration will take necessary action against any interest groups that seek to interfere in our internal affairs.  In this vein, I wish to place on record the appreciation of this administration for the patience and understanding of Nigerians, the French, the Germans, the Russians and Irish governments in the current situation.  I appeal to our fellow countrymen and women and indeed our foreign detractors that they should cultivate proper understanding and appreciation of the peculiar historic circumstances in the development of our country and the determination not only of this administration but indeed of all Nigerians to resolve the current crises.

Fellow Nigerians, the National Security and Defence Council have met several times since the June 12, 1993 election.  The council has fully deliberated not only on our avowed commitment but also to bequeathing to posterity, a sound economic and political base in our country and we shall do so with honour.  In our deliberations, we have also taken note of several extensive consultations with other members of this administration, with officers and men of the Armed Forces and will well-meaningNigerian leaders of thought.  We are committed to handing over power on 27th August 1993.

Accordingly, the National Defence and Security Council has decided that by the end of July 1993 the two political parties, under the supervision of a recomposed National Electoral Commission, will put in place the necessary process for the emergence of two presidential candidates.

This shall be conducted according to the rules and regulations governing the election of the president of the country.  In this connection, government will in consultation with the two political parties and National Electoral Commission agree as to the best and quickest process of conducting the election.

In the light of our recent experience and, given the mood of the nation, the National Defence and Security Council has imposed additional conditions as a way of widening and deepening the base of electing the president and sanitizing the electoral process.  Accordingly, the candidates for the coming election must:

(1)   Not be less than 50 years old.
(2)   Have not been convicted of any crime;
(3)   Believe, by act of faith and practice, in the corporate existence of Nigerians;
(4)   Posses records of personal, corporate and business interests which do not conflict with the national interests;
(5)   Have been registered members of either of the two political parties for at least one year to this election.

All those previously banned from participating in the transition process other than those with criminal records, are herebyunbanned.  They can all henceforth participate in the electoral process. This is with a view to enriching the quality of candidature for the election and at the same time tap the leadership resources of our country tothe fullest.  The decree to this effect will be promulgated. _{(see maradona  )}[/color]

[size=14pt]Fellow Nigerians, I wish to finally acknowledge the tremendous value of your patience and understanding, especially in the face of national provocation.[/size] ( _{[color=#990000]no be today you see us finish, e don teh. and you still dey provoke us})

I urge you to keep faith with the commitment of this administration.

I enjoin you to keep faith with the unity, peace and stability of our country for this is the only country that you and I can callour own.  Nowhere in the world, no matter the prompting and inducements of foreign countries, can Nigerians ever be regarded as first class citizens. Nigeria is the only country that we have.  We must therefore renew our hope in Nigeria, and faith and confidence in ourselves for continued growth, development and progress.

Thank you all, and God bless you.

IBB and ATIKU that want to hide under zoning to get the PDP ticket must consider the following:

1. Zoning is a PDP issue and not that of the entire north.

2. In the North Buhari is more popular than ATIKU and IBB combined.

3. Buhari will NEVER drop his bid for IBB or ATIKU. Hence the only route to a consensus candidate in the north will be if IBB and ATIKU drop their plans and back Buhari, which in it self might spell doom for their personal political careers

4. If in the end the north as expected finds it hard to produce a consensus candidate, that will work to GEJ's advantage, as the idea will be for votes to be split in areas where he is not very popular.

5. The few states in the north (Benue,kogi,taraba,plateau) that have supported jonathan will always remain with him, as it is getting clearer by the minute that the Zoning call is more of a HAUSA/FULANI agenda.

I think this scenario presents an opportunity for political reallignments across the nation. The SS may never again go with the core north. The middle belt now craves a new identity , hence is forging a new alliance with the SS.

This is a chance for the SE and Sw to study the scenario properly and align where they stand to benefit most.

mikeansy:
WHY PEOPLE CELEBRATING PDP'S ABILITY TO RIG ELECTIONS?

I THOUGHT WE WERE HOPING FOR FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS IN 2011

IT SEEMS TO ME NIGERIANS ARE EVEN ALREADY PREPARED FOR RIGGING.

True. But the truth remains that for a presidential race, even without rigging PDP is the party to beat. They have the structure that make campaign very easy.

mikeansy:
I have a Plan B for Jonathan Goodluck.

He should openly denounce zoning and step down from the race on the grounds that he wants to be an unbiased umpire.
He should then proceed to secretely support the Donald Duke campaign with whatever he can and help him mobilise the Organised Labour (NLC) to defeat PDP.

That way Jonathan will go back home a Nigerian Hero and become a Godfather of South-South politics waiting in the wings to replace Edwin Clark but with greater influence on National Affairs.

Because there is no way Jonathan will win this election except through massive rigging and nobody wants that.

(Donald Duke / Ribadu or Donald Duke / El-Rufai) will make a great ticket.

But I fear selfishness will not allow Jonathan Goodluck see his deficiency on time. Jonathan will simply not win, a candidate has to be able to excite their base to win election but unfortunately the South as a whole are not necessarily excited about Jonathan.

How cool will it be if we have the following candidates

PDP - IBB or Atiku

ANPP - Shekarua

CPC - Buhari

Labour & AC - Donald Duke / El-Rufai or Ribadu (With secret backing from Jonathan Presidency).
Then our future will be bright!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

U dis guy , e be like say u don dey read too many books

This your theory can not work. Secret backing ke? Even open backing for Donald duke will change nothing. The abokis that see GEJ as a southern opportunist will not see duke in better light. LP/AC combo will not even get majority of southern votes.

It will make the race a straight fight between Buhari and IBB. Atiku is a complete outsider for the PDP ticket.


PDP - IBB/KEN Nnamani or Orji kalu

ANPP - Shekarua/anyone from SW

CPC - Buhari /anyone from SE/SW

Labour & AC - Donald Duke / El-Rufai or Ribadu (With secret backing from Jonathan Presidency

~Bluetooth:
So you would want jonathan to win through the party before he destroys it. ? What is jonathan scared of,that he can't win an election against pdp or he is scared of ibb or atiku.
fyi,Atiku did not contest against obj;he only opted to contest after pointing out that the zoning system did not specify 2 terms in office which makes him a contender then.the idea didnt fly because obj had to plead with him after promising to handover to him in 2007 which he didnt.jonathan cannot make any difference as far as he's in that evil party,so it's high time he left pdp if he truly want nigeria at heart.however,i dont see him doing that because he needs the pdp to win next year

Instead of asking what Jonathan is scared of, why not ask it the other way; "what is the north scared of". From you post , they(north) own PDP , hence once they leave the party en masse, what will be left will just be empty carcass, so why are they not doing that?

So if it was OBJ that pleaded with ATIKU and not the party executive as stated in the constitution? Meaning that the North could as well make do with the one term UMYA has done. Or does the constitution now state that it must be two terms?

We may all not like PDP, but in present day Nigerian politics , it remains the "best" brand through which a presidential ambition can be actualised. Many of us are quick to say they rig, which is true anyway, but in terms of national coverage and the ground soldiers to do the "work", they are the party to beat.  

Consider this, in every state, the election has been between PDP and other parties. Justifiably ANPP,APGA, AC,LP won some states in the last general elections but PDP never fell below second spot(except Anambra). It will be real political suicide to leave that party as president and go contest the election from another platform.

What is the north afraid of if I may ask? The truth is they are not as united as they have always claimed. Once Jonathan gets the PDP nomination form just like rimi and gemade did in 2003 and  Odili, Donald duke and a host of other southerners did in 2007, he will win the PDP ticket.

These ABOKI people just want to harass jonathan. If they have the numbers they claim, then let them get their delegates to the PDP primaries and disgrace GEJ. But no , the north would not do that. Their strategy is to harass GEJ out of the race with the promise of being a statesman. bullcrap.

This is the sequence things are likely to take; GEJ will win the PDP primaries,then some agrieved northerners will leave the party. Thereafter reconcilliatory meetings to bring back agrieved members will start. A reasonable proportion of agrieved members will return and life continues. shikena.

What i think the northern PDP members  should be doing  noW is how to get a written commitment from GEJ that he will do just one term and handover. They atleast will have something to hold on to.

~Bluetooth:
If jonathan cannot abide by pdp constitution,he may as well decamp to another party.zoning is the only thing that can keep this country in peace when it comes to succession of the prseidential seat.The northa nd south should work out modalities that would give constitutional recognition to power sharing between the two.for how long are we going to keep having the same problem at end of every tenure.something should be done as soon as possible

Dis one na lie. It should rather be the other way. When jonathan wins the PDP ticket, the northern candidates that feel cheated should decamp and contest from or supoort other parties. We cant be fooled. If this rotation was always there , why has the executive committee been allowing candidates from regions not favoured contest? why was ATIKU trying to contest against OBJ?

I dont care if GEJ losses, but he must understand that to the SS it is a "sin" if he chickens out of this race becuase of people like IBB and ATIKU. If the party threatens him with a breakup if the north does not produce the candidate, he should make them know that he can destroy PDP if he doesnt get the ticket too. QED.

Anyhow and anywhere they like they should meet. The fact that they are meeting every now and then shows that there is tension in their ranks. However as they meet , they must consider the following:

1. Zoning is a PDP issue and not that of the entire north.

2. In the North Buhari is more popular than ATIKU and IBB combined.

3. Buhari will NEVER drop his bid for IBB or ATIKU. Hence the only route to a consensus candidate in the north will be if IBB and ATIKU drop their plans and back Buhari, which in it self might spell doom for their personal political careers

4. If in the end the north as expected finds it hard to produce a consensus candidate, that will work to GEJ's advantage, as the idea will be for votes to be split in areas where he is not very popular.

5. The few states in the north (Benue,kogi,taraba,plateau) that have supported jonathan will always remain with him, as it is getting clearer by the minute that the Zoning call is more of a HAUSA/FULANI agenda.

I think this scenario presents an opportunity for political reallignments across the nation. The SS may never again go with the core north. The middle belt now craves a new identity , hence is forging a new alliance with the SS.

This is a chance for the SE and Sw to study the scenario properly and align where they stand to benefit most.

monkeyleg:
Why must we always read meaning to these things. David West is simply stating the truth. I used to be a long time support of Buhari, i was convinced that he was the only man that had the balls to challenge what was going on in Nigeria, until I was swiftly reminded of his deep religious attitude.

I would galdly back him if he can come out and be more inclusive in his approach.

. . . . and very tribal too. About 80% of all PTF(petroleum trust fund )projects under him were executed in the north. Besides even that his force may count for less in a democratic setting.

REAL TRUTH:
Redeemed Pastor Arrested Over N8m Fraud


A 40-year old pastor with the Redeemed Christian Church of God,

I dont want to comment on the story, but this man is definitely not 40 years old.

Onlytruth:
You have a point there except that the south east is not interested in the vice president slot. Of course that can change (politics is a fluid game ) if the right candidate is picked. But the south east would likely vote en block FOR a PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE of their choosing. If the south east governors stick to their guns, they would frustrate any VP candidate from the south east.

The south south on the other hand is a more fluid political space. If you pick an active agitator like Tam David West who can make noise about resource control, you can easily split south south votes. Already MEND is losing confidence in the Jonathan presidency over the resource control issue. A more militant voice may garner some support and split south south votes.

David west as VP will not even get 20% river state(his home state) votes if GEJ is contesting as president. Except when a northerner who shows strong loyalty is the VP, a southern VP be it EAST, WEST, or SOUTH is sometimes even not as powerful as some ministers. From Ekueme to GEJ , experience has shown that the VP office is most times far less attractive as it appears on paper.

Gbawe:
My brother, the debate don finish - more or less. Wetin remain na for all of us to wait and see. We have all postulated our theories. Let us now wait and see what actually happens . My point with the articles is that most I have read , even if permutations are varied, roughly consider Jonathan's mission a very difficult one. Not at all the done deal you , and many folks from the ND region , assume it is.

Overall I think Jonathan will find it difficult to achieve what OBJ failed to. We can talk about constitition and other minute details as evidence of the difference between OBJ's third term project and Jonathan's 2011 project but both are the same IMO.

OBJ , as a man who had benefited from and agreed to a pact within his own politica party, tried to cheat the most clannish region in Nigeria to a Presidential slot the region correctly feels has been zoned to it .

I say correctly because the PDP was designed to be the only Party , for many reason , that can realistically win the Presidency . Many PDP members would actually see Jonathan's ploy as an attempt , using the hitherto 'gauranteed' winning platform of the PDP, to usurp a Presidential term he would not have had the ideological right or support to aspire to had Yar Adua not died !!!! This is why some PDP folks have come out to ask Jonathan respect a pact he benefited from and assented to .

Jonathan , like OBJ , is a PDP President who is trying to move the goal post in the middle of the game. Let see if he succeeds . You say he will and I feel he won't . We will have to wait and see because , aside from time , no amount of writing will prove either of us right or wrong.

Kool. You have a point here. Lets wait and see. in politics 24 hours is a very long time. We still have weeks to even the party primaries.

Dreamer. Let him try governorship election in his home state for size first. Even a weak party like NCP will never present his type.

Onlytruth:
I suspect that Tam David West is gearing up to work with Buhari somehow. He may even be a vice presidential candidate. That opens up Jonathan's rear.
Watching this closely.

Picking David west as a VP when GEJ is contesting as a president is a waste of political space. The VP slot of Buhari should rather go to the SE, where it can affect voting.

But I have a problem with David west ,his position has not been consistent over time, he has severally asked GEJ to respect the zoning principle, so how come he now supports a view that zoning is outdated?

tkb417:
how can Bankole say that to Dagash?

who the hell is he?

[b]Bankole can never , i repeat can never say "you who do you think you are" to OGD[/b]all these reports

few days/weeks from now, another reporter will come with another version of what happened

and how come the reporters heard all he said when they were not on the bus

smh

And who is OGD that Bankole can not say that to him?

Gbawe , wetin dey happen na? u never still see anoda article?

adamawa:
ZIDDY & CO.

Keep shut if you don't know what to say . We know good from Bad. PDP in Lagos God forbid bad thing. Check out the achievement of AC to PDP controlled States.If Fashola has offended you and your family let us know

Stop castigating TINUBU, FASHOLA and AC. Oyinlola of PDP ruled Lagos, we are leaving testimony to his achievement. Lookt at you FG should pay attention to Lagos state to have free and fair election.Imagine

What nonsense are you talking about? People castigating tinubu are not all PDP members, but the truth is , Tinubu is even worse in criminality than a lot of PDP thieves we know.

So Sulivan chime of Enugu state and Ameachi rotimi that are doing well are AC governors too?

I still dont understand how oyinlola came into this thread. Marwa achieved much more in his few years in lagos than your tinubu that spent 8 years.

Sometimes when I hear this zoning argument I get confused.

1999 election general election remains special in the history of this nation. MKO’s election was annulled and he  was subsequently  killed, when the powers that be felt their was no way any democratic process can start again with the hanging  June12  mandate and MKO  still alive. The Yorubas that were always perceived to be non-violent saw the emergence of groups like OPC and there were calls for the resurrection of the old “agbekoya warriors”  Everyone knew that it was almost going to be impossible for the SW to be interested in any  democratic process then. This was seen as a crack that soldiers could exploit and either remain in power or return very quickly.

The general idea was to kickoff the process by placating the yorubas and making sure the next president came from SW. This in my view is not zoning per se but an attempt to say “sorry” for June 12 and the death of MKO.

We presently hear that zoning is a PDP affair , but to underscore my point even the other parties adopted a Yoruba candidate for the presidential  election. 1999 was the first and only  time in the history of the country where the two frontrunners for the presidency where yorubas and one of the candidate was carrying the mandate of two parties (OBJ-PDP , OLU FALAE--- AD &ANPP).

So if PDP’S case was zoning, what do we call that of ANPP?  If ANPP/AD  was zoning too, then for how long was it planned, and why was there not a repeat in 2003?  

Prior to the 2003 elections, when OBJ and ATIKU,  were still in good terms, some powerful elements in the north got uncomfortable with the rising political clout of Atiku  in the nation  and started mounting some veiled pressure on OBJ to replace him as running mate for the next elections. At that time even OBJ had not signified any intention to contest the 2003 elections.

In the wake of this development Atiku’s supporters started mounting pressure on OBJ to answer the following questions as they were running out of time:
1. Will you(OBJ) seek re-election by contesting the 2003 elections?
2. If  you(OBJ) are seeking re-election , will you pick our canadidate(ATIKU) as your running mate?

The position of ATIKU’s  supporters then was that ATIKU was strongly considering to run in the 2003 elections(possibly against OBJ if he was not picked as running mate). So can someone ask ATIKU what he taught of zoning then?

The Actual Tone of hausa/Fulani………,

The North (Hausa/Fulani) does not believe in zoning, their current position is predicated on the feeling that since the south just finished 2 terms under OBJ, they(hausa/Fulani) must do same before further consideration can be made. I want to ask, if someone like IBB wins the pdp ticket will he relinquish power  after the first 4-year term?

I strongly believe the if it lies within the powers of the hausa/Fulani, Nobody from the SE or SS will smell that office. They only managed OBJ as pay-back for 1979 and the general feeling that he is a southerner than can be managed.

I do not know what the IGBOs think, but I can tell you that except by divinely orchestrated means as the present status of Jonathan where there is reasonable national visibility and incumbency factor, the SS or SE will hardly ever produce the president of this country.

I presently give  my 100% support to GEJ, but If the Hausa/Fulani are sincere, let them document what will happen in  2015. I mean which zone will produce the president and let all the important elements in the North (including their emirs accross party lines) sign. Then we can consider asking GEJ to drop his ambition.

lord krato:
Buhari the north will not vote an inch for that guy.They are looking for someone with their interest in mind and knowing buhari,he is most def not the man they will pick,

Which buhari are we talking of here? is he not the one that executed almost PTF projects in the north without any regard for other regions? So if someone like him does not protect northern interest , i wonder who has.

kobikwelu:
^^^^

lol



these writers are always living their fantasies


does not forget that the odd are stacked in john's favour,


also just heard that shekaru just declared his intention on the ANPP platform? kai is he the most formidable candidate the "north" has to offer in opposition to john (that's if he finally deciedes to run)

Yes shekaru is strong in ANPP, He pushed Buhari out of the party. This move could still be interpreted a step to checkmate IBB's likely move , when he fails to get the PDP ticket. Anpp is just a 3 state party, even with the planned alliances it will still not measure up.

He is however no threat to Jonathan, even with all the noise these mallams are making.

Another thing i wait to see happen is how, BUHARI,SHEKARU and IBB can work together. Its like mixing diesel,water,and kerosene.

I know people will want to say the North knows how to manage things, but i beg to differ. Even in the second republic when notable notherners supported shagari, people like Aminu Kano (PRP) and Waziri Ibrahim (GNPP) did their own thing.

This Gbawe sef . This analysis by this your adored writer(M. O. UYOUYO, writing from Abuja) is just too watery.

First it is not a balanced report, which does not in any way consider the odds that stand in jonathan's favour. I expect a professional to look at the factors that could boost GEJ's chances and the once that can scuttle it, and then take a subtle position.

If I understand the writer properly,
1. SW will go to the northern candidate,  because they have the VP slot with a promise to return the presidency to SW after the "northern" term.

2. SE will be divided, but the northern candidate still has an edge becuase GEJ only thins out the chance of an IGBO president in future.

3.The votes GEJ will get from the SS  will predominantly be IJAW votes while the itsekiris,the urhobos and the entire edo state goes to the northern candidate.

4.In the writers mind  , the "north" is one whole unit.

5. The writer assumes that in the end there will be only one "northern" candidate in the presidential race. Hence in the end Buhari,shekarau, Ibb,RIBADU,ATIKU,Danjuma Goje will merge forces at all cost.

6. That becuase of the general discontent for the PDP by the electorate, they will vote the consensus candidate of the "north" , regardless of who it turns out to be.

7 That the merger of  AC,DPP,CPC and Some factions of the ANPP and PDP will be big enough to have the kind of national coverage needed to win a presidential election.


By the assumptions above jonathan will win just 1 million votes, and the northern candidate 15 million votes. GEJ is finally disgraced for failing to heed popular advice.

Thanks for the analysis. Help me thank the writer too. GEJ has thrown in the towel. He will no longer contest.

Gbawe:
@na-so.

Bruv you don't need a list if you are not observing issues from a biased perspective. Jonathan has done enough things worng for us to know he is another "business-as-usual" leader that is a clueless servant of  those keeping Nigeria down.

I will only give you and Beaf one example (others can supply more if they want). Jonathan withdrew Nigeria from t=International participation in football events. We all applauded because we thought the cabal will be dismantled and competent hands will be brought in to salvage our football.

As soon as I saw the names of those replacing Lulu, et al I raised the alarm with a thread of how Jonathan is merely playing to the Gallery.

Does it not make sense to you that Jonathan , if he is serious and a sincere leader, should remain unconcerned while we actually gained a new head of the NFA  (Aminu Maigari) who , along with Lulu, is a corrupt administrator involved in the very rot Jonathan pretends he wants to see an end to ? Maigari has been grilled by the EFCC  with Patience Jonathan (Madam corruption) having to come to his rescue !!!  At the very least one would expect a cull of the NFA to usher in technocrats and achievers if the cull was sincere in the first place?

Are you guys not worried about the obvious  incompetence and lack of knowledge (or perhaps deliberate deployment of corrupt individuals) of Jonathan with his action of replacing a thief with another thief?

Well if from the long list you have , it is only an event that happened yesterday that readily comes as reference , may be your list is not as long as you always thought.

I was one of those that condemned the initial ban of our teams from fifa competitions . When later the govt rescinded the decision after Lulu and others have been shown the way out, I felt  it was a well thought out move.

Maigari is a government appointee that now heads the NFF. This is a clear case of govt interference but Fifa is pertending not to see it so. I hope you know why?


Maigari most likely would have been a recommendation of the PTF, if recent findings seem to show that it was a bad choice, I know GEJ is humble enough to change his mind.

The NFF elections have not taken place yet , and if between now and the election time, govt still goes ahead to back him, even after damning revelations come to the fore, then we can blame jonathan.

There is nothing stopping Maigari from answering further questions from EFCC when he returns , besides between now and when he comes, EFCC would have had sufficient time to fine-tune their investigation.

Gbawe:
Not true. I consider Jonathan a dangerous gamble because he is another selected and clueless leader who never deliberately or meritoriously prepared to be President of Nigeria. We all know why he was chosen to be VP to Yardy. His mediocre history as a politician , same as Yar Adua's poor record as Governor, should be ample warning to Nigerians that we are about to gain another highly compromised and clueless stooge in the mould of Yardy.

Jonathan is only trying to hang on to a position that fate has [b]unfairly promoted him into because of how power is intoxicating [/b] same as seriously ill Yar Adua tried to remain President even as he should have been tending to his fragile health in retirement  . We have had enough of accidental leaders foisted on us by selfish interest groups .  We want performers who , one way or the other , have shown Nigerians that they can serve our nation well.

Are you not fed up of OBJ and Yar Adua-type leaders who emerge as the candidates of small interest groups whose agenda always happen to run contrary to the considerations needed for the development of Nigeria? What has Jonathan ever done as a politician to warrant Nigerians gambling on his candidacy at this stage in our history when silly gambles by a select few (OBJ and Yar Adua) has cost the majority of us so much?

If some of us are not speaking out of ethnic jingoism then it will be obvious that Jonathan is a very poor choice , not worth supporting, in comparison to Donald Duke, Nuhu Ribadu, Ken Nnamani, et al . I am not interested in wether my region of origin ever Produce another Nigerian President till I die. I simply want, given Nigeria's peculiar need at the time, the best men and women to get the job of leading Nigeria. No more untested unknowns like Yar Adua.

Gbawe de man . At least u don dey talk ur mind, instead of those fullscap write-up earlier , to justify why the North will not support GEJ, and why Ribadu is  the best bet.

Mediocrity for a deputy governor is when he does not give his boss(governor) any problem. When he does everything within his powers to run a separate agenda from his boss' and make sure the whole nation sees that, then he is not a mediocre?abi?

You have stated how risky it is to gamble the next 4 years on a political greenhorn like GEJ, and in the same  post endorsed ribadu. Is it because of ribadu's political experience? just asking

Beaf:
I am very interested in that list too!
I will be interested to hear any reasons why, a man who has been president for barely 2 months, is facing such withering attacks. What are the things you expect him to have delivered in this 2+ months that he is failing at and what are the things he was not expected to touch in his 2+ months that he's become involved with?

It is easy to gather from Gbawe's many lengthily worded missives that his only grouse against Jonathan is the fact that he came from nowhere and without building any "political machinery", rose to become President. . . It all seems too wishy and unreal; I understand, these are not mikeansy's reasons, but would like to hear some solid reasons, listed in very clear terms, that delineate from Gbawe's.

@Gbawe
Please correct me, if my conclusions are wrong.

Hmm. na trouble u dey find o.

@mikeansy

please in very clear terms list the sins of jonathan. we learn everyday.

_{I dey always fear to argue with you because typing go plenty}

For various reasons , since 1999, the Presidents we have had (OBJ and Yar Adua) had the support of the North and the influential power blocs needed for overall victory. Jonathan is trying to 'buy' that support for a very difficult project in a very short period that does not leave him enough time to understand the treacherous characters he is dealing with.

At the moment politics in Nigeria is about “buying”  and "selling" support.  Politicians support you based on whats in it for them. We all know this. So in 2003 was it the north that ensured victory for OBJ against buhari? What role did the SS,SE and SW play? I am Just being  curious. Besides when you talk about the “north” what north are you talking about? Has Kogi,taraba,plateau etc that have voiced there support for jonathan moved out of the north? People are now wiser to know that when they talk “north” it  is always to advance hausa/Fulani agenda in the national landscape. People are now wiser my friend . 

I actually don't care that Oshiomhole is Ribadu's running mate. My point is that the article may be a realistic indication of the AC's thoughts  because any ambitious Southern Politican may actually join up with Ribadu with the realisation  that , by default and as per the difficulty of what Jonathan is attempting , the most Progressive Northern candidate may win if Jonathan runs on the platform of the PDP. It will be a 100% win for PDP , with its already highly efficient rigging machine, if a decent Northerner runs on its platform.

Progressiveness and politics of the core north run in opposite directions. The Aminu kanoS and the Ibrahim waziris that ran a semblance of progressive politics were never brides of the core north.  Again can ribadu work with  a bola tinubu, seeing all the happenings in lagos between tinubu and fashola?  When northern politicians are faced  with choosing between a progressive politician from the north  who will do some serious damage to the northern ruling class and reluctantly supporting an outsider that offers to work with the ruling class, then you are sure it could go either way.

With an unpopular Southerener , trying to "ungentlemanly" reap where he has not sown, many , including most of the Northern members of the PDP, may be convinced to work for the most progressive Northern candidate available.

So if jonathan is not a gentleman, I wonder who is.
Reap where he has not sown?  Tell me , did OBJ reaped where he sowed when he came from prison to become president and still got a second term in a party alex ekweme formed?  AD had already settled for funsho Williams when Bola tinubu came and twisted everyone’s hand to get the ticket. What did Olu falae sow in AD to have defeated founders like Bola Ige? Abeg forget that talk.

My man,  the "doctrine of neccesity" that made Jonathan Acting President mysteriously emerged after the Governors were 'settled' despite the fact that Nigeria had been in a quagmire for a while. The point is that Jonathan knows he can only buy his way to the Presidency. His approach , so far , has involved bribing everyone and buying support because his project is one that does not ideologically sit well with most Politicians , to include those in his own party, despite duplicitous noise to the contrary. That method of throwing money at everything will only work up until most Northerners are confronted with the stark reality of being regarded as 'traitors' to their region for cheating the North out of what was promised to it.

You seem to be downplaying the threat of a military coup that informed the need to invoke the “doctrine of necessity”. I am not saying that GEJ did not throw money at these politicians but please understand that the journey so far is attributable to an interplay of forces--- monetary inducement,fear of military coup, pressure from international community and most importantly providence. So don’t overstate anything here

Like third term , and when the time is here, you will start seeing how Jonathan will be matched , kobo for kobo and strategy for strategy, by those aligning behind the consensus Northern candidate.

By your logic the third term kite was shot down by the north and the north alone. Abi? Third term was difficult to sell to the entire country and the votes that quashed it came from all parts of the country.  As for the northern consensus candidate , we dey siddon look, when the time comes there will be an appropriate response. The relevance of the north in Nigerian politics owes partly to the consensus backing they have always had from the SS, So if they are ready to change the game, then fine.

Party Structure can quickly dissapear overnight if you are working against a principle most politicians subscribe to but are afraid to support publicly for fear of offending an incumbent President !!!! "Party Structure" can actually become Jonathan's undoing with how the Northerners in the PDP will accept jonathans bribe, pledge their support only to covertly work against his ambition.

Did you say most politicians? Zoning abi? So if a northern candidate is allowed to win on the grounds of zoning, how many years will he spend?  You expect him to do just one 4-year term and leave abi?

See ,I have read commentaries from a lot of the northern politicians that support zoning and the unspoken tone is that zoning will be done away with, only when they must have completed their 8-year term like OBJ did.

The northern ruling class will hardly zone the presidency to the SE or SS. What they are planning is to harass jonathan not to contest and after the first 4-year term of the northerner that will emerge, Zoning will be discussed and dumped/suspended to allow the man continue. Thereafter, the logic will be that since the north and south have had there 8-year turns, the floor should be thrown open.

Working against Jonathan covertly will soon become the weapon of choice because everyone must fear , under the mentoring of OBJ, the partisan ruthlessness of a President who sacked a PDP chairman (Ogbulafor) who stood in his way.

So why could’nt  the north save ogbulafor when they knew that he was suffering for trying to protect their  interest? Yes the north is a powerful political bloc, but can be broken. If jonathans last option is to apply some form of force , he will do that.

As for jonathan's "visibility" , that counts for nothing in the North. Of course everyone knows the President. In a highyly clannish region Jonathan's "visibility" is worthless because the natural agititation will be for the North not to be cheated out of what "belongs" to it.  Northern leaders , when the time is right, can solidify that agitation by promoting the candidacy of a Progressive Northerner . This will ensure that the small rank of Northerners who bring the argument that the "North has not benefitted from Northern leadership" are defeated with the emergence of a Progressive candidate who is a departure from business-as-usual mediocrities who have done nada for the North like IBB, Atiku, Danjuma, et al  . This is what the AC may have keyed into to formulate its strategy . I.e refrain from mentioning zoning and present a very strong Northern candidate as per the understanding that , despite populist talks to the contrary , zoning is still paramount in 2011.

This is just a wish. First there will be serious in-fighting in the north because of ideological conflicts , then if(which is unlikely) the progressive candidate wins , he would have lost his progressive touch that AC stands to gain nothing.  Anyway I do not see AC as a progressive party. So Tinubu is a progressive? What of ATIKU? O yes he was when he joined A C , now he is no more.

Why are the likes of Soyinka, Col.Umar, Balarabe Musa, Femi Falana, Okey Ndibe, Pastor Tunde Bakare, Ken Nnamani, Nigerian Liberty forum , Save Nigeria group , and many principled Nigerians and entities who fought for power to be handed over to Jonathan,  now failing to support  Mr.President's 2011 ambition? You should also ask yourself why many of the folks above seem to be supporting Ribadu to understand what jonathan will face as per the support some influential Nigerians and entities can motivate on behalf of Ribadu.

You this Gbawe sef.   How many voters can this your combined team get behind them, even in a free and fair election? Being a social critic and having a few friends in the media that give you a good rating does not make one a strong politician. Abeg I no fit shout

This is outright fallacy. Ribadu , with his 'exploits', is known to most Nigerians. You may not fancy his candidacy (as is obvious) but let us refrain from stating what makes little sense. Jonathan may be well-known but that does not mean he is popular. Ribadu on the other hand, going by the willing support he is enjoying and that he has not had to pay for , is naturally popular. This will become more obvious when the battle lines are drawn . Jonathan is not doing himself any favours by "buying" support rather than tackling Nigeria's problems. If Ribadu declares, I think the support that will be motivated for ribadu (like the Obama phenomenon) will shock the "cash-and-carry" ideology of the PDP.

Which Obama phenomenon?  Chai u no go kill me with laugh. Like the Obama phenomenon of jimi Agbaje in the last elections in lagos abi? Structure,structure structure.
Check just the thread here on NL and you will see that even ribadu is not as popular as you think. Don’t get me wrong I have always been a supporter of ribadu, But as president I will not.

That may seem so to you. We are only seeing this strategy because Jonathan and his camp are , in a blind panic, trying to throw inducements at everyone. Like I said, we will see what happens , aligned with how the North wants the Presidency in 2011, when Majority of Nigerians get behind a Progressive Northerner candidate after Jonathan's political Popularity will probably have plummeted courtesy of his policy of running an election campaign rather than running Nigeria. Nigeria is not yet the home of progressive politics but things are changing . We all saw the numerous rallies urging the cabals to hand over to Jonathan. I think Ribadu is one of the few politicians that can unite Nigerians into action like that.

Even in this your post you have stated that we are not ripe yet for a progressive to win at the presidential level

And Jonathan is with the financial profligacy and festering criminality we are seeing under him motivated by a desire to remain President in 2011 by all means?

The same way  tony anneneh and Bode George were walking as saints when ribadu was EFCC czar. Abi?