₦airaland Forum

Tinubus billionaire accounts are still bouyant with stolen funds, na Father Mbaka empty thousandnaire account na im EFCC go freeze.

This man is a politician pure and simple!!

Young03:
And, can i know their mission?

To ensure a peaceful atmosphere during the elections!!

Without the army, Nigerians would be left at the mercy of Buahri's Almajiris and Tinubu's area boys!

peace peace peace is all we should strive for

He called Enugu a battleground state.
Thats enough to stop looking at the map!!

Anyway, for someone who took his wife, and family members to his polling booth and yet scored only one vote(that means they voted against him), I can understand his bitterness towards GEJ!!

funstufz:
Yeah everybody is allowed to advertise products as deem fit but should also be reasonable. Nobody is pulling anybody down...

Different people value themselves and their services differently. We are not in a communist country where prices are fixed. If @world1 chooses to sell at N50 and he has a reputation for delivery as well as maybe would offer free advice, then naturally I'd rather buy from him than buy from a complete stranger who is offering same for 10 Naira.

All hotel rooms sell space for you to sleep for the night. They offer a bed, toilet space, maybe an air conditioner and a few other pecks. Now if you go to some, you'll be offered for 5000 Naira per nite while there are others who would offer for 40,000 Naira per nite. Now its up to the buyer to choose from the various services which best suits him!!

WisdomFlakes:
Are you telling us that you would rather the naira continue to lose value relative to the dollar instead? Don't just make Stu.pid statements all coz you supprt Gudluck. Use your brain for once!

Illiteracy no be moi moi oh!! Ha! So if someone tells you he will equate the value to the dollar you would just swallow it hook line and sinker??
What were you doing when others were attending Economics class??

For the Naira to be equal to the dollar, you would need to see our dollar reserve rate go to something like a trillion dollars!! Even with 20 years of 20% economic growth rate, we would probably not be there!!


Now the bigger lesson for you is that a very strong Naira is not good for our country especially if you want to produce goods and export competitively..
Now let me explain that to you:
A bag of Dangote cement sells for 1500 Naira.
When the dollar was 160 Naira, that bag of cement was equal to $9.
At the new rate of 215 Naira, that same bag of cement is now equal to $7.
That means if Dangote wants to sell his cement in Albania, he has a better price point than he would have had 5 months ago.

Now imagine the Naira is exchanging at 5 Naira to a dollar.
That same bag of cement would now be equal to $300. Where on planet earth would he be able to sell his bag of cement at that price??

Any country that desires to produce and export to the rest of the globe, prays for a weaker currency to allow its goods better pricing amongst competitors. If Buhari understands economics, he will never pray for a very strong Naira except of course he wants us to keep importing everything!!

Princecalm:
This is someone that understands the economy speaking and not the clueless one who keeps Naira unstable.

Are you serious Your speech just gave you off as someone who lacks complete understanding of Economics>



Illiteracy no be moi moi oh!! Ha! So if someone tells you he will equate the value to the dollar you would just swallow it hook line and sinker??
What were you doing when others were attending Economics class??

For the Naira to be equal to the dollar, you would need to see our dollar reserve rate go to something like a trillion dollars!! Even with 20 years of 20% economic growth rate, we would probably not be there!!


Now the bigger lesson for you is that a very strong Naira is not good for our country especially if you want to produce goods and export competitively..
Now let me explain that to you:
A bag of Dangote cement sells for 1500 Naira.
When the dollar was 160 Naira, that bag of cement was equal to $9.
At the new rate of 215 Naira, that same bag of cement is now equal to $7.
That means if Dangote wants to sell his cement in Albania, he has a better price point than he would have had 5 months ago.

Now imagine the Naira is exchanging at 5 Naira to a dollar.
That same bag of cement would now be equal to $300. Where on planet earth would he be able to sell his bag of cement at that price??

Any country that desires to produce and export to the rest of the globe, prays for a weaker currency to allow its goods better pricing amongst competitors. If Buhari understands economics, he will never pray for a very strong Naira except of course he wants us to keep importing everything!!

1k001:
I prefer not to reveal it for now. We have only just started operating and remains to be seen whether we will be successful or not.

You are missing out on one important rule!! Tell it to the whole world.

Now, as at the time of writing, your article has garnered 5301 views. A percentage of these people could easily have become a market base or at least could have introduced the company to one or two people are better still could have served as a sampling of whatever tweaking the product would have needed.

I'm like that. I hardly speak about my company. My younger brother, who is my co founder speaks about it everywhere. He spoke to his professors in the University, to his friends, to everybody he has met and today those speeches have produced some really fine deals.

Speak about it wherever possible. Forget the shame if it fails, that's the nature of start ups, they either succeed or fail. Every opportunity is a free advert.

So please lets know the business except of course its still in developmental stages..

Now this is interesting because outside Nigeria people say my name is Japanese and then I tell them I'm Edo and they laugh and say, Edo is the former name of Tokyo. And I'm thinking are you serious?? Then I find out later that Osa which means God in Bini means Head or Chief or Leader in Japanese. The I start to check other names and there are so many similarities. So many similar words, so many similar stories.

More research needs to be done to find whence this connection emanates from!

The problem I've just realized i that SW has the lowest PVC collection rates and might also present the lowest turnout rates in which case might not be too much of a determining factor.

Turnout rates would be the greatest determinant of the election results. If turnout rates in the North east and Northwest trump turnout rates in the south east and south south the GMB gets it, if its vice versa GEJ gets it.

SW is recording an average of 60% collection rates where the rest of the country scores above 80%.

An insult on responsible Edo women worldwide.

Are Edo women the only prostitutes abroad?

The plan

Surely I am not from the same country with those folks.

BluIvy:
@Papa Brown,you did a good job with you predictions but you are also killing and making your own predictions insignificant if you are holding your word and understanding as the only superior argument.

Predictions and assumptions work a lot using all information available to you at that moment and going forward. For instance you have 4-5 people from Venue & Nasarawa saying your assumptions are flawed. Right there stats beat you by 5:1 but instead of filtering it into your assumption you are arguing it. Same with Kaduna & Lags, Edo.

Your assumptions then have too much possibility of being insignificant if you do not filter in even slightly such information available.

I agree with you. The statistics are seperate from my opinions. What I shared that you quoted is my opinion which is seperate from my assumptions which were based on historical data and current realities as well as other permutations.

For instance, I can confident express an opinion that Jonathan would score above 95% in Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom and Cross River, but they were placed statistically at 85% for GEJ.

All in all, I agree with you. I ought to assess and probably accept the opinions about Benue since they posters appear to be on ground. However, the practical realities don't point in that direction.

Obiagelli:
It will be a miracle for gej to win benue, a lot has changed since 2011.

Interesting assumptions. Wish you understood the dynamics. If Benue is dissatisfied with GEJ, what you would see is low turnout and not support for GMB. At the core of voting decisions in the middle belt is not so much Boko haram as it is Fulani herdsmen. Benueans are farmers and have been getting the beating from Fulani herdsmen. Voting a Fulani is the last thing on the Benue farmer's mind. Now that's in the rural areas.
In the cities its a different ball game. And most of the chatter you get is from the cities. However, majority of votes come from rural areas.
Akume, Ortom and Gemade would have an impact, but that's why you see the 25% allocation for Benue.

DRANOEL:
you might want to change what you postulate on Benue & Nassarawa, the dynamics have changed in those places especially Benue where APC have swelled their ranks with political heavy weights, also the general feeling/action of insecurity and non payment of workers salary doesn't put PDP on the choice list. Even PDP supporters in Benue say they will vote differently in the presidential, besides those in the villages now have an anthem 'se soo or Ijaw la ga, a wase ga' meaning 'we don't want the Ijaw man, he has done nothing', in Benue its 65% - 35% in favour of GMB. For Nassarawa, its 60% - 40% in favour of GMB

No sir, elections don't work straight up like that. Benue and Nassarawa are PDP fair and square. Osun state hasn't paid salaries but that wouldn't mean PDP would trump APC there. For Akume, Gemade and Ortom, thier impact would be felt, but not so much as to improve radically to meet your 65% for APC postulations---impossible. Even core northern states like Gombe would probably superceed that postulation.

tuniski:
your postulation is so wrong. No state in the federation that GEJ won't get at least 25%. Furthermore, only kwara will be a marginal gain for Buhari due to the saraki's factor in NC. Buhari won't get 5% in the entire SS and SE. GEJ will win at least a state in the NW and get over 32% of total votes there. NE is a 50/50. Bottomline SW to swing GeJ and a total margin of 6 to 8million win for GEJ. Buhari will try but, will be rejected the 4th and final time! Nigeria sai Goodluck!

I don't think GEJ will win a state in the NW except maybe Kaduna swings his way which is hard but possible. NE at 50/50 is only possible if Borno and Yobe voters are not able to come out due to the insurgency. It will be a close election but GEJ is more likely to win.

emiye:
From your postulations, North east is too positive for GEJ, expecially in Taraba, Adamawa, while gombe might be understandable coz of a sitting governor seeking 2nd term.
Kaduna is too positive for GEJ, it was roughly 45% for GEJ in 2011, it must be somewhere around 30% now.

Benue and nassarawa too positive for GEJ, Benue will be around 6o% for GEJ. while nasarrawa is around 40% for GEJ. GEJ will likely get more than 50% in FCT., Even kogi at 60% for GEJ is suspect, but permissible.

In the south east, i will raise the bar for GEJ from 85% to 92% in the states ,excluding Imo, where he will get around 75%.

In the South south, again, it is 92% in 4 states(Akwa Ibom, cross rivers, Delta and Bayelsa) , 75% in Rivers state, and 65% in Edo state

In South West, Lagos too positive for GEJ, 40% is realistic, Ogun at 40% too positive, 30% appears more objective. Oyo at 45 % also too positve, 35 % is more realistic.

I like your assumptions but they are basically off the cuff and based on what you feel. Thats the way I feel too but the realities are different.
Your assumptions negate the fact that most voters are rural and don't make thier decisions on the same performance indices as do city dwellers. Benue is strong for GEJ. I understand the Akume and Gemade factor but it will be same as it was in 2011 and most of those votes would come from city dwellers. As for Nassarawa, the ethno religious sensitivity has changed as the previously laid back Eggon tribe and others are less likely to support a Fulani.
I agree with you on the south east and south south but the 85-15% benchmark was for statistical balance. South West is the battleground. Turnout of Ibos and south south indigenes would be a major factor. Plus Jimi Agbaje's followers would have a play. About the south west, forget what you read on the papers. Take a look at Osun state election results. Omisore scored 300,000 votes vs the incumbent Aregbesola's 400,000 votes. That's the kind of pattern SW politics follows.

All in all, let the ideal man win!

sincerenigerian:
Op, thank you for this postulation of yours.

I have my own statistics that I've been trying to bring to the forum. Mine is quite close to what you have. I am an ardent APC and Buhari supporter and I don't support the notion that it is going to be a landslide for Buhari despite my belief of Buhari winning this forthcoming election. I believe a Buhari's narrow victory over Jonathan is going to happen. I am seeing large turn-out in the North and low turn-out in the South-west and South-east. I believe the turn-out of South-south is going to be higher than that of Southwest. I don't see Buhari winning more than 17 States while Jonathan winning 19. Jonathan is expected to win more states than Buhari but Buhari will surely have between 2 million votes and 4 million votes more than Jonathan.

My little disagreement with you is putting Adamawa and Nasarawa in GEJ's column. Political landscape has changed in those areas. The Christians in the Adamawa axis are very angry with Jonathan and are willing to vote for Buhari. Buhari won in Nasarawa last time and he's going to win there again. I don't see how Jonathan is getting up to 10% of the votes in any of the North-western states except Kaduna where GEJ is expected to be competitive.

As it stands today, Buhari is going to win all the States he won in 2011 and add Lagos, Ogun, Kogi, Kwara, Oyo, and Adamawa to his column this time around. Buhari is expected to do well in South-south and South-east. I have been surprised to see a lot of Igbos supporting Buhari this time around, unlike in 2011. There is so much anger against the incumbent. People really want change and ready to give Buhari and APC a chance. They want to see what change looks like.

I know Adamawa quite well. Factors that can affect Adamawa negatively is if IDPs are not allowed to vote in ADAMAWA. Most of the IDPs are Christians. The Christians in Adamawa axis appear more angry with Islam and what they perceive as Fulani domination. They would probably not be voting Jonathan, but against Fulani domination. I hope Nigeria can go past Ethno Religious voting patterns but in 2015 especially in the north that is a voracious factor.
Nassarawa in 2011== GEJ= 408,000. GMB=279,000.

As per Jonathan getting 10% of Northern votes, I'll tell you how politics works. As long as there is a strong Governorship candidate and other party stalwarts, they have the capacity to pull especially village votes to the side of thier party. In Sokoto for instance, Bafarawa would ensure that his village votes Jonathan the same way George Akume of Benue would ensure his village votes APC. In Bauchi all those on Muazu's payroll, all those on the FCT minister's payroll, all those on the Governor's payroll would ensure thier hordes of followers thumbprint umbrella, same as Oyegun would ensure his power structure in Edo state votes APC. Remember there is no candidates name or picture on the ballot paper, its just party symbol and name. So while you assume, less than 10%, I guess it would be more than.

For Lagos, the amount of IBOs and South South indigenes present would definitely have an impact on the elections.


All in all, its a very close election where every vote counts.

I await your own postulations, it would be nice to analyze it.

emiye:
kogi state is missing from north central

THANKS. I've corrected it.

abduljabbar4:
I'm from kaduna state and I am telling you that even though southern Kaduna didn't like Buhari last year, they have now learnt their lessons. They have suffered the bomb blasts. The fake promises. Come and see for yourself. I swear they don't like pdp at all

You dont seem to understand the mindset of your southern Kaduna neighbors. Its not about Jonathan for them, its about handing back power to what they see as their oppressors. Funnily and you might not know this, in the same way many Northern muslims see Jonathan as responsible for Boko Haram, many northern Christians(much more than southern christians) see Buhari as a supprter of Boko Haram. Its just the sad dynamics that have enveloped our politics. I genuinely wish Nigeria can get over this ethno religious voting patterns.

Now my observations...

First, this election would be determined by voter turnout in both candidates strongholds.
If the SOUTH SOUTH and SOUTH EAST dont come out enmasse and the North West comes out in droves, then that would be a difficult case for GEJ.
Secondly, the SOUTH WEST is the only region left up for grabs. Like I said earlier, it is the reason GEJ is constantly in the region these days spending 5 nights at a stretch on one particular occasion,visiting Yoruba elders and holding meeting with Youth AND Nollywood. The goal is simple, get those sitting at home to come out on March 28th.The young people, the villagers, the touts, the market women. Get an extra 500,00 voters here and you have the election in your hands.

APC should be worried except they don't understand the dynamics. Yemi Osibanjo shouldn't be anywhere else right now but in the South West working the votes. Visiting churches and going to villages.


One reason APC should be worried is because in my postulations, I gave an edge to Buhari despite certain obvious realities.
For instance, I ignored historical data and awarded 15% of votes in the South South GEJ strongholds to Buhari. Its impossible for Buhari to score 1.1million votes in the south east. But for statistical balance I awarded all the same.
Also based on historical analysis and practical realities, Jonathan should score above 15% in many North West states, but I awarded 15% for statistical balance. Despite these distortions, GEJ still ends up with slightly higher numbers.

It's barely 10 days to the elections.... I can't wait for it to be over and lets get back to normalcy!!
But before then, lets do a state by state analysis and lets come out with permutations and postulations as to the likely winners!!

I have taken time to study the different electoral landscape, I have spoken with people from virtually all Geopolitical zones and I have used both historical electoral data as well as current realities to arrive at my postulations.

Now if you observe, GEJ has been visiting the South West consistently over the last three weeks and has been spending nights on end.....hmmm, It is not for nothing. If APC is wise, they wouldn't take that for granted.
This election would be decided by two factors 1) The south West voters. 2) Voter turnout. And whosoever wins will do so by a very narrow margin. It is a very close election. At the end of this analysis, you'll understand why.


These stats are based on INEC PVC collection rates(12th March 2015) and are approximated to the nearest decimal. Also it is based on an assumption of 100% turnout with is practically impossible.

NORTH CENTRAL
States-------------PVC Collected--------GEJ--%----Num---------------------GMB--%-----Num
Benue--------------------1.6 m-------------------75----1.2m-----------------------------25-----0.4m
FCT-----------------------0.6 m-------------------50----0.3m-----------------------------50-----0.3m
Kogi----------------------0.9 m-------------------60----0.5m-----------------------------40-----0.4m
Kwara--------------------0.9 m-------------------40----0.5m-----------------------------60-----0.4m
Nassarawa---------------1.0 m-------------------60----0.4m-----------------------------40-----0.6m
Niger---------------------1.7 m-------------------30----0.5m-----------------------------70-----1.1m
Plateau-------------------1.5 m-------------------75----1.1m-----------------------------25-----0.4m

______________________________Total GEJ=====4.6m___________Total GMB======3.6m

NORTH EAST
Adamawa-----------------1.4m-------------------55----0.8m-----------------------------45-----0.6m
Bauchi---------------------1.8m-------------------20----0.4m-----------------------------80----1.4m
Borno----------------------1.4m-------------------15----0.2m-----------------------------85----1.2m
Gombe---------------------1.1m-------------------30----0.3m-----------------------------70----0.8m
Taraba---------------------1.3m-------------------65----0.9m-----------------------------35----0.5m
Yobe------------------------0.8m------------------15---- 0.1m-----------------------------85----0.7m

_____________________________Total GEJ======2.7M____________Total GMB=====5.2M

NORTH WEST
Jigawa---------------------1.8m-------------------15----0.3m------------------------------85----1.5m
Kaduna--------------------3.2m-------------------45----.1.4m------------------------------55----1.8m
Kano-----------------------4.1m-------------------20----0.8m-------------------------------80----3.3m
Katsina--------------------2.6m-------------------15----0.4m-------------------------------85----2.2m
Kebbi----------------------1.4m-------------------15----0.2m-------------------------------85----1.2m
Sokoto--------------------1.5m--------------------20----0.3m-------------------------------80----1.2m
Zamfara------------------1.4m--------------------15----0.2m-------------------------------85----1.2m

_____________________________Total GEJ======3.6M_____________Total GMB=====11.2M

SOUTH EAST
Abia----------------------1.2m--------------------85----1.0m-------------------------------15----0.2m
Anambra-----------------1.7m--------------------85----1.4m--------------------------------15----0.3m
Ebonyi-------------------0.8m---------------------85----0.7m--------------------------------15----0.1m
Enugu--------------------1.2m---------------------85----1.0m--------------------------------15----0.2m
Imo-----------------------1.7m--------------------80----1.4m--------------------------------20----0.3m

_____________________________Total GEJ======5.5m_____________Total GMB=====1.1m

SOUTH SOUTH
Akwa Ibom--------------1.6----------------------85----1.4m---------------------------------15----0.2m
Bayelsa------------------0.6----------------------85----0.5m---------------------------------15----0.1m
Cross River--------------0.9----------------------85----0.9m---------------------------------15----0.2m
Delta---------------------1.9----------------------85----1.6m---------------------------------15----0.3m
Edo-----------------------1.3----------------------70----0.8m---------------------------------30----0.4m
Rivers--------------------2.1----------------------80----1.7m---------------------------------20----0.4m

____________________________Total GEJ======6.9m______________Total GMB=====1.6m

SOUTH WEST
Ekiti---------------------0.5m---------------------60-----0.3m--------------------------------40----0.2m
Lagos-------------------3.7m----------------------55----2.0m---------------------------------45----1.7m
Ogun--------------------0.9m----------------------40----0.4m---------------------------------60----0.5m
Ondo--------------------1.1m----------------------60----0.7m---------------------------------40----0.4m
Osun--------------------1.0m----------------------35----0.4m---------------------------------65----0.7m
Oyo---------------------1.6m----------------------45----0.7m---------------------------------55----0.9m

____________________________Total GEJ=======4.5M_____________Total GMB======4.4M


Now the totals:
GEJ=== 4.6 + 2.7 + 3.6 + 5.5 +6.9 + 4.5=---- 27.8m
GMB===3.6 +5.2 + 11.2 + 1.1 +1.6 + 4.4=----27.1m

Very very close. Barely 700,000 in difference in GEJ's favour but thats well within a statistical margin of error so it can swing any way.

Lets take this up with the next national assembly and make sure a law is passed to stop the nonsense.

Trust me we can do it. We just need to organise ourselves and get a few senators and House of Reppers to push it.

God saved my Brother'"s life recently because he knew the owner of the hospital and called him up while he was bleeding profusely after robbers shot him. The nurses on duty were asking for police report. Its just sad how Nigeria has become so much of a debased society.

mandarin:
Thanks sir for your thoughts. I was involved in a research recently and wish to state that there are facts behind these figures and estimates.I see it as purely academic and not to raise undue hopes for party supporters or mislead people's expectations.
You can assume but. I think the time is near for this result and I can bet in a free and fair election ,at least 85% accuracy.
Kaduna is going to be different and Southern Kaduna which has a huge population of Igbo and Yoruba and ethnic groups of Southern Kaduna will majorly have igbo voters in support of Jonathan.Religion has no serious play in this because of Osinbajo, call and ask the Christian community there. El Rufai is damn too popular. The truth is this election will defy many long standing ethnic and religious sentiments.
Secondly, [size=13pt]in the best case scenario for GEJ is a 30% votes there which alongside fair performances in Taraba, Nasarawa and Adamawa will give maybe a total 20% of votes cast to GEJ,[/size] now, that will be a good performance for GEJ because Buhari will win massive in remaining states and get up to at least 40% in Benue and Plateau. I just left Kogi and Edo are swing state and not Nasarawa.
So if you agree that voters turn out will be a huge factor in this election let me know because the number of votes in the southwest may nit be impressive in Ondo and Ekiti, maybe both of them can give a total of a million votes.Its difficult to say for certainty who will win in both states and sitting governors and Osinbajo factors will be at play at varying degrees.
if they chose the path of ethnicity because of a Yoruba VP its a great victory for Buhari.I actually believe Edo will be shared while GEJ will win in all of East and Niger Delta.

The bolded exposed the degree of your ignorance on Northern politics. Just to let you know, Northern Christians are much more likely to vote Jonathan than Niger Deltans. And the reason is not thier love for Jonathan but thier hatred for Fulani domination!

stronger:
First of all, kudos for actually attempting to counter-analyse unlike others that just come and insult a decent job and go.

Next, I will concede that Nasarawa might be a swing state. But don't take Edo state out of the swing states o. Big mistake! People make the mistake of lumping Edo state with other S/S states. Error! Apart from the fact that the north of edo has a large muslim population (and religion plays a part sadly), it's not for no reason that it is an APC state! The people of Edo state HATE THE PDP! largely because of Lucky Igbinedion and Tony Anenih! Fact! The only reason it is not an outright WIn for BUHARI is because Oshiomole's popularity has declined. At the peak of Oshio Baba's popularity, GEJ would have been camping there like he is doing in Lagos!

Now, to KADUNA state! This was sooo hilarious!!!

Unlike The S/S and S/W where OUR SON will work for GEJ and osibanjo respectively, Kaduna state will be overwhelmingly won by BUHARI! I can place a bet on this.

Didn't you hear of the catastrophe that was the Kaduna rally? The deputy governor shouted to the LOC to GO AND BRING THE CROWD! Sambo was thoroughly embarassed! The stadium was empty and the people there were (a) paid money (there is pictoral evidence) and (b) The others kept shouting SAI BUHARI that they had to chase them out of the stadium I am surprised you didn't know about this. See link
http://www.punchng.com/news/poor-turnout-as-jonathan-takes-campaign-to-kaduna/

The IMMENSE POPULARITY of EL-RUFAI in Kaduna also means he will take the governorship post. In addition, the Southern Kaduna votes have been further hurt by GEJ's embarassment of Agwai!

Ah, guy, I can write an essay on kaduna o. No need to argue. PM your fellow PDP guys quietly and they will tell you what's up!

If you need further clarification I can help you!

Hehe, you are funny!! First I'm from Edo state and not only do I visit the cities regularly I engage with ruralites there a lot in the course of my work. Jonathan would do better in Edo state than he would do in parts of Delta. Right now, Edo state hates APC more than PDP. Oshiomole's second tenure has been a gigantic disaster. Nothing, I repeat absolutely nothing is currently happening and the APC is in disarray in Edo state. Maybe you didn't notice but the only state Buhari didn't hold a rally in the entire country was Edo State. Edo North muslims would give Buhari some votes but the population there is the smallest in the state: less than 10%. Its going to be more like 70:30 in favour of Jonathan.

As per Southern Kaduna, your ignorance again is explicit. Igbos are not the majority inhabitants of Southern Kaduna state. Yes, a lot of Igbos dwell in the south of Kaduna city, but that is different from southern Kaduna state which constitutes almost half the population of the state and is dominated by Christians. Southern Kaduna will vote in the same pattern as Plateau and Taraba as these are the states where religious tensions are strongest.

The problem with your analysis is in the error of your assumptions.

First error is in placing Kaduna, Adamawa and Nasarawa firmly under Buhari.
Thats an apparent sign that you aren't in tune with Northern politics. You would have had a better analysis if you used historical data to support you postulations.
Kaduna is the best definition of a swing state. Two factors would count for GEJ: 1)Southern Kaduna. 2)The VP & the incumbent. In 2011, Kaduna gave GEJ 1.2m and GMB 1.3m. So lumping Kaduna in the same mould as Kano, Bauchi, Borno and the likes is an error already.
Nasarawa has an APC governor, but would have a PDP victory because of the Ethno Religious politics present in the state. Adamawa would be pretty close to call but a greater likelihood the PDP would hold sway.

Second error is in your swing states assumption. Edo & Taraba.
Edo is safe, very safe for PDP. In 2011, PDP won by a wide margin. At that time, Oshiomole was very popular. In 2015, Oshiomole has become so unpopular that he would lose an today to even to the very unpopular Igbinedion. So while Edo north would give Buhari some votes, majority of the votes would definitely go to PDP. Taraba is PDP and would give GEJ better margins than any state in the SW.

The best statistical analysis would come from lumping states with similar voting patterns together and according them percentage weights.
Better still, do a state by state run and award percentages based on both historical data and current realities.

I'm not voting in this elections. Not very impressed by the chatter of both parties.

But if I must vote, then I'll vote Jonathan 100 times over Buhari.

My one singular reason is this: For the last 15 years, Buhari has done only one thing with his life: Contest Elections.

He hasn't engaged in any academic pursuit.
He hasn't published any materials about Nigeria and its development.

He hasn't created a single employment for any Nigerian.
He hasn't led any companies,sat on any board or engaged in any kind of business activities.

He hasn't offered a single scholarship to anyone of the numerous Nigerians.
He doesn't promote any NGO or support any causes.

Absolutely nothing. Just contest elections every 4 years. Thats a sad life. The things listed don't require money.

My dad will be 71 this year. He retired from an oil company over about 20 years ago. Since then, he has engaged in a good number of issues that contribute to the development of humanity. Same as many other Nigerians not an inch as influential as Buhari. So why hasn't Buhari engaged in anything aside contesting elections?? What happens to the man in the 3 years preceding an election year??

This is one simple reason I cannot vote the man. Do I like his ideals, yes. But He has done nothing with his life in his spare time to motivate my vote.

verakooler:
Benin Ore road is a federal project YES, benin Ore rd was an ongoing project even before obasanjo left office YES
Benin Ore was totally abandoned even after Jonathan assumed office YES! Now here is the FACT the completion of Benin Ore may be attributed to Jonathan but the move to ample it was decried agitated engineered and critically followed up Gov.Oshiomole. so abet talk another thing wet jonathan do

Visit Benin City and see the potholes that magnify the nooks nad cranny of the city. Before you talk about Oshiomole, talk to an Edolite and ask what he thinks!! Decried, Agitated and engineered in you sleep abi??

hotmas911:
we spent #18,700 per acre

Wow! That's cheaper and more efficient than manual labour. Interesting!!