₦airaland Forum

Paulheyman:
If only you guys can allow them, make a joke of themselves and Lord emilokan. Two months to the end of their permutations.

The only reason obi stands a chance is because
1) Nigerians are fed up with APC and PDP
2) Atiku, kwankwaso and Tinubu are all contesting (this takes precedence): The so called kano, Kaduna and kastina votes are divided amongst three Muslim, one being less Muslim than the other. Moreover the north needs power
3) Mu-Mu ticket: Christians in both southwest and north are scared of dying. Remember the song "peter Obi will save us"
4) Obi's character: Dude stands out amongst the two thieves
5i) All supporters of APC are counting on rigging which is of the old order to win: Most people felt Jonathan was gonna rig and win, so they didn't vote and he lost
5ii) BVAS: APC senators are already crying on this

You are very right.

Just that it’s good to do them some psychological blow from time and again to help them have a grasp of the reality on ground and refrain from grandstanding.

00FFT00:
Second to who in SS, Tinubu?.

Ask am o!

Because I don laugh tire

OnyeAshuaUru:
Tinubu BATstards wish Atiku wins some states in the SouthSouth. Note that this is just their mere wish and has nothing to do with situation on the ground.
This also has nothing to do with love for Atiku.
It's actually just the only way they can propagate their delusion that Peter Obi's road to Aso Villa is not as bright as pollsters say it is.

Lol! You are right.

It is the reason that they believe that Southeast that has always voted PDP can switch away from PDP but will argue blindly that Southsouth can’t do the same.

Very funny set of people.

ybn1306:
Unfortunately religion alone cannot decide who wins NC. Several Christians in the Christian north will vote Atiku. Apart from Benue and Plateau, the muslim population in other NC states even with that of Christians

Are you sure about that?

Because reality on ground point to the contrary.

Mrmb:
He is attacking obi because obi tells open lies. Dowore hasn't been telling lies like obi did, he is deceitfully gathering atentiins that's why he is being attacked. Obi is a clear fraud, sowore will make a better leader than obi

Then vote for Sowore.

Thank you.

garfield1:
Datti and okupe are political nonentities in their states,they dont have any electoral value,no one knows them.okowa dominates delta politics,has a stranglehold on rigging.tpu saw how he defeated ibori.atiku is winning aks not because of udom but because the people prefer pdp.they are not very receptive of obi.can't you see the way people in rivers and Edo are dying for obi?

Can you make your analysis without reference to rigging?

And talking about Okowa winning Ibori in Delta, when did Okowa and Ibori fall out? Was it not during the PDP primaries of this year? Were Okowa and Ibori in different camps in 2019?

Try to always get your facts right na; not just saying whatever you think will buttress your pointless point.

Paulheyman:
I would prefer that labour party supporters pipe low, let's pretend as if Tinubu and Atiku are doing very well in the South South until after the election. Stop conducting the online pools, this pools always prompt the evil party to start nursing sinister moves just as we have seen in Ogun of recent.

If Umahi could tell state civil servants to bring their nominal role to the stadium for signing, and mandate secondary school principals to bring their students to the stadium to welcome Tinubu then I believe I have seen enough nonsense already.

Let's keep hailing Lord emilokan till he loses the elections

I can’t help but agree with you.

In fact this thing you said is the reason I have not analyzed one of the jokers that is working for Peter Obi in the upcoming election.

We need to play the dummy to catch the sucker by downplaying Obi’s chances with them so they don’t see what’s coming.

Tor!

They’ve finally decided to share the ones wey dem bury remain.

I hope they have set modalities in place to prevent Tinubu thugs from harassing innocent Lagosians who would want to collect their PVCs?

Hypocrites!

How can you reject Tinubu’s Muslim Muslim ticket but support a Muslim succeeding a Muslim and a northerner succeeding a northerner, and you claim to be fighting for the rights of Christians?

No sir, you are just a selfish hypocrite.

Imagine saying Atiku is the most capable in the race? Someone that is third behind Obi and Kwankwaso.

garfield1:
Gej won nc,got 40% in core north

Yes. But this time around, there are three candidates to make sure those votes do not go to one person which is advantage Obi.

ImmaculateJOE:
@Penguin2
Obi can't win NC, reason is that, there isn't any state in the region that Obi can boast of a landslide victory, as the case in SE and some SS states..

From all Indications, he is winning Benue, FCT and maybe Plateau.. But can he do that with 50% and above..? I don't think so.. PDP and APC will each, take 25% here..

This is where Tinibu would beat him.. Emilokan is sure of 60% upwards in Kwara, 50% in Kogi,
40% in Niger, and more than 25% in the remaining states of Benue, Plateau, Nasaarawa and FCT.
Obi can't get 25% in all the states of NC but Tinibu can..
Atiku has lesser chance here. Man is now a regional candidate of NE&NW, just like Buhari pre-2015

I agree with you that Atiku is now restricted to NE & NW.

But about Obi winning North Central, I disagree.

Who do you think will come second in Nasarawa? Who do you think will come second in Kogi? With both states having above 40% population of Christians, don’t be surprised to see Obi pull an upset in both states after Atiku and Tinubu have divided Muslim votes.

The only two states Obi might not perform well in the North Central are Kwara and Niger.

Kwara because it is predominantly Yoruba and they are likely to vote majorly for Tinubu. Now, with Saraki dynasty still very much alive, I concede that Saraki will help Atiku come second in Kwara while Obi comes third.

Then in Niger because they are Muslims and I really don’t know who is stronger in the state between Atiku and Tinubu.

Sum these percentages together and you’d realize that Obi is winning North Central.

Again, this is devoid of emotions but empirical postulations.

garfield1:
Ss is a battle ground sir.pdp seems to lead in delta and aks,lp seems to lead in edo and rivers while crs tilts to apc and bayelsa is between apc and pdp

Lol!

I will ask you the question I asked Immaculatejoe, if you think Atiku will win Delta because of Okowa and Akwa Ibom because of Udom, does it make sense therefore to say that Obi will win Kaduna because of Datti and Ogun because of Doyin Okupe?

ImmaculateJOE:
How can Atiku win Plateau..? It's between Tinibu and Obi..

Niger state is his closet bet in NC..
The highest number of state Atiku can win in the north is 6
Adamaw, Taraba, Gombe, Kebbi, Jigawa, Sokoto. In the south, only 2 from (Delta, Aks amd Bayelsa)

Kwankwoso will take 1st or 2nd in Bauchi.

I’m always in awe of what makes you guys think Atiku will win Delta or Akwa Ibom or Bayelsa. Because of Okowa?

If you argue that Atiku will win Delta because of Okowa and Akwa Ibom because of Udom, does it make sense therefore to postulate that Obi will win Kaduna because of Datti and Ogun because of Doyin Okupe?

Kyase:
All these talks will be tested and confirmed by march 2023
Obi won't come second in SW either

First in SE and MAYBE second in SS
He won't smell second anywhere again

Lol!

Do you know that I still feel very stupid that I once used to take you serious; I don’t know if I will ever forgive myself.

If Obi is coming second in Southsouth, then who will win the region?

And if Obi is not coming second in Southwest, who will?

Peterobiisathie:
KKK states matter alot

Jonathan didn’t win the KKK states in 2011 but yet he won the election.

In that year, the 3 states went to Buhari; same in 2015 and 2019. But in 2023, the votes from those states will be shared between Kwankwaso, Atiku and Tinubu which will render it almost useless compared to its effect in previous elections.

If only you think far enough, you would have realized this and wouldn’t need me to remind you.

I will try to be as concise and straight to the point as possible….

As the 2023 elections approach, every supporter of the frontline candidates believes his candidate will win but only a few are able to practically, logically and empirically demonstrate their candidate’s road to victory.

But because I, and most other Obi supporters, am not in that category, I bring you Obi’s realistic and unexaggerated path to victory.

First, of all the 4 frontline candidates, Obi is the only one not contesting his region of Southeast with anyone. And when you consider the fact that the voting pattern of the Southeast and Southsouth has always almost been the same since the 60s, plus the results of several polls already conducted by different bodies, and with facts on ground in the different streets of the Southsouth region, you will agree that Obi is not contesting Southeast and Southsouth with anyone.

In the Southwest, different results of several polls, and facts from the streets of Southwest indicate that Obi is closely behind Tinubu in contest of votes of the region. Even with 2 sitting PDP governors in the region, Atiku seems to be unsurprisingly out of contest for the region’s votes. And even if he ends up garnering votes from the region, the votes he would garner might be too insignificant to be consequential.

In the North Central, even the oppositions have accepted that Obi will win Benue, Plateau and Abuja. He’s also expected to come second in Nasarawa and Kogi. A summation of these will give him victory as the overall winner of the North Central.

In the Northwest, Obi would not be expecting much here except from Southern Kaduna, Southern Kebbi and some votes from the brothers and sisters of Datti Baba-Ahmed in Zaria (yes, we are not expecting much from Datti).

In the Northeast, Obi is not expecting much, just like Northwest, but might do better here than in Northwest. With good showing, or even outright victory, expected in Taraba, then votes from Adamawa Christians, Southern Gombe, Southern Borno and Southern Bauchi, Obi will not do badly in this region.

In conclusion, I want you to realize that Atiku is contesting his Northeast region with Tinubu and even Kwankwaso and Obi. Because Borno and Yobe seem to be gone with Shettima while Obi is likely to take the votes of most Christians in the region while Kwankwaso is not bereft of supporters in the region as well. If anything, Kwankwaso’s outing in Maiduguri was so threatening that Borno government had to seal NNPP office until public outcry made them reverse the decision.

Similarly, Kwankwaso is contesting Northwest with Atiku and Tinubu. It is unarguably a three horse race in this region with none of them sure of victory in the region yet.

In the same vein, Tinubu is contesting Southwest with Obi as results of several polls have shown and as people on ground in the Southwest can testify. If anything, the Muslim Muslim ticket of Tinubu seems to have turned off a lot of Southwest Christians who would have ordinarily voted for him.

But not so with Obi; almost all of the candidates agrees that campaigning in the Southeast is a waste of time and resources because the region is gone with Obi; closely followed by Southsouth.

So, there you have it. Everything I’ve said here is verifiable facts devoid of emotions and exaggerations. And when you have digested it, you would be seeing Peter Obi’s victory staring at you in the face.

Meanwhile, I’d appreciate if respondents stick to countering my position with superior facts and postulation rather than degenerating into throwing illogical tantrums and insults.

Danke!

Penguin is a bird of reason.


Garfield1
Kyase
Tinubuadvocate
Ihordspy
Solvertongue
PandoraObi
NigeriaIsGreat
Okoroawusa
Tinsel
Moh247

Peterobiisathie:
hide your face in shame
What happened to other states not visited?

But have you accepted that he campaigned in the north?

Peterobiisathie:
By December Pandora will quit

Nasarawa is South North, Abi?

Okpo!

I think this guy was ironically talking about Tinubu

The world knows that between Obi and Tinubu, Tinubu is way closer to Stone Age than Obi will ever be.

We are talking of Obi who makes his tweets himself sometimes and a Tinubu who cannot even reply a WhatsApp message.

APC guys are just so foolish, brainless and out of ideas that they just say whatever comes to their head while hoping it makes sense; but unfortunately, it never does.

Ndi ala!

garfield1:
I've told you that most in the cities vote differently from rural.in cities,rigging and coercion is hard.in villages,voters are easily coerced.in my LGA before the eve of election,we usually meet to decide which party each community will vote thats why rural areas usually give bloc votes.in 2015,my village divided votes before my uncle pleaded that the votes should all turn for pdp based on his friendship with the deputy gov

But you agree they are aware of what is going on, right?

And what if they decide to vote Obi? Or what makes you think that is not an option?

garfield1:
Obi will win ph quite alright but the rural areas are still going pdp

Lol!

You talk as if those living in the city fell from the sky.

Kyase:
It's alright boss
But if you are to tell yourself the truth
Obi can't win the election

Lol!

Obi is the only candidate who has 2 regions he’s not contesting with anyone - Southsouth and Southeast.

Every poll, and even reality on ground, has placed Obi closely second to Tinubu in Southwest; Atiku is out of contest for Southwest votes.

With expected victory in Abuja, Plateau, Benue and Nasarawa, which will give him overall victory in North Central, Obi is poised to win North Central.

Add the votes from Taraba, Southern Kaduna, Southern Gombe, Southern Borno and Southern Bauchi, and you see Obi’s victory staring at you in the face.

Atiku is contesting Northeast with Tinubu and even Kwankwaso; Borno and Yobe are arguably gone with Shettima.

Kwankwaso is contesting Northwest with Atiku and Tinubu.

Tinubu is contesting Southwest with Obi.

Do the math…

Trash!

Won’t stop Oshiomole from losing his senatorial election.

garfield1:
Me am in ph which is the capital of ss and from here,I can easily tell the direction of the votes for ss.se is a foregone alternative.

But,this your northern projections is confusing me.today you say its atiku to win nw,tomorrow its Buhari.you can't just be using your friend's view to permutate

Lol!

So, from what you have seen in PH, where do you think the votes of Southsouth is going?

Kyase:
Your sentencing and use of words are similar to the op you quoted.

Now back to the topic
Saying that APC doesn't have a base in Bayelsa is another next level shit, apart from Ogoni of rivers state
, I have more peeps in Bayelsa than any other place in the south south, and all of them including the PDP members will tell you that APC got more chance in Bayelsa than any other SS states
Tell the op you quoted to stick with rivers
How much dem go pay person make e comoth go another state for rally and how much The Tinubu even get self

Let's be reasonable with this politics abeg

Lol!

So you really are insinuating that I quoted myself? To achieve what?

I’m the last person to deceive myself or place Obi where he’s not. I’m a very realistic person. And I will never place Obi where he’s not.

I quoted you so you could see what he said yourself. And I believe him because he’s not a popular moniker on Nairaland so you won’t say he’s an Obi promoter.

I just want you guys to accept reality.

NigeriaIsGreat:
Hahahaha


Obi dey cash out big time from his gullible online miscreants and chest beater

Obi the smart nigga

Na Datti talk but you are attacking Obi…

The guy is right that you guys are scared to face northerners.

Who do una this thing?

mrkings84:
I am not from Bayelsa neither do I base there, I am based in PH. My boss is a politician, a PDP big name in South South, but he had something he needed to offer them in the rally in BY. He is from there though. He is never in support of APC,not at all. But we went there purely for biz, APC shared money to people to turn up for the rally. (I don't know if this is what they do in every of their rallies), as for the crowd, it was ok, but the truth is BY is just like Rivers, APC have no base here.

As for if Obi have a chance here, I think frankly speaking. You know b4 now the race was usually a 2 horse race (PDP and APC), but as I talk right now, the presidential election is not about party this time but about individual. 70% of even APC people here and like 90 of the PDP people here in BY and rivers are rooting for OBI but are still in there various parties at state level.

See, to be very frank, I really don't see PDP and APC winning any state in Niger Delta and SE......

Even me that's talking to you I am a core PDP member but not on this presidential elections....
And majority of the people here are like that. Go to Akwaibom, Cross Rivers, Delta, Edo, Bayelsa and Rivers.... The case is just the same.
As for the South East states, I am not from that region so I don't know what their stand is for now.

It's looking like it's only Yuruba Muslims and some northerners that are marketing Tinubu....
(Saying so cus even here in Rivers, the few yurubas that are Christian's are in support of Obi, and this might be same in the west and in the north)

To be frank, I am not sure what this elections is going to be like come 2023.... I

Thank you Mr Kingsley for this frank summation of the reality on ground in Bayelsa and elsewhere in the Southsouth.

Meanwhile, I’m actually from the Southeast, so I know what’s going on there. Only some Southeast elites are following Atiku and Tinubu for whatever reason that is best known to them. 99.9% of the people in Southeast are supporting Obi.

Then about Southwest, I’m currently based in Lagos and I can tell you authoritatively that most people in Lagos will not vote for Tinubu. No legitimate hustler in Lagos will vote for Tinubu; Tinubu’s victory will be victory for agberos and these agberos are the reason Lagos is almost inhabitable.

I keep telling people that Southeast and Southsouth are on lockdown for Peter Obi but they like to deceive themselves.

Garfield1
Senatordave
Kyase
Moh247
Tinubuadvocate
Tinsel
Asgard
Ochejoseph
Ihordspy
Silvertongue
Osunoriginal
PandoraObi
NigeriaIsGreat
Okoroawusa
AlternateId

basybasy:
Some idiots will be abusing another person's father as if they don't have father at home. If you don't vote him or ure supporting Obi, no need to be abusing him. We will not take that from u pple

What will you do

CoolAmbience:
Who come be the grace na? Obi?

Oga, I come from Anambra, but I no want Obi.

People should be free to support who they deem fit.

All these petty tribalism should stop. There are Yorubas and Hausas that support Obi.

To even think that Obi's supporters want Soludo to support him at the expense of Umeadi is the height of political madness.

Is LP a bigger political party than APGA?

Your business…

After 2023 elections, we will know which is a bigger political party between Labour Party and APGA.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fiPonN4hMk

For the first time since he was picked, the Vice Presidential Candidate of the Labour Party, Senator Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed, has taken a swipe on the Presidential Candidate of the APC, Alhaji Ahmed Bola Tinubu, telling him to go and rest if he’s sick.

Speaking at a media parley organized by the Labour Party today, the Vice Presidential candidate said that Nigeria is too great a country to be handed to someone who has health problems.

Recall that the media parley was organized to address many lies and falsehoods thrown against the candidate of the Labour Party, Mr Peter Obi, by opposition parties.

Nlfpmod
Mynd44

mrkings84:
See, I was in the rally in B/Y to see things for myself, but me and my boss and his team are fully OBIdient. We went there for our personal interest.

Awesome!

Good to meet with someone in Bayelsa…

Please tell me, how was the attendance at APC rally?

And what is Obi’s standing in Bayelsa?

Be realistic and don’t exaggerate anything or put Obi where he’s not.

I will be waiting for your reply.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVPqGFKPNu4

After losing the PDP presidential ticket and having been quiet since then and being named in Atiku and PDP Presidential Campaign Council, former Senate President and SGF, Anyim Pius Anyim, berates the two leading parties of APC and PDP, says they were not able to serve social justice.

Is Anyim about to switch camp too?

Nlfpmod
Mynd44