₦airaland Forum

etrouble:
It's just starting, it's going to get hotter. If you can't withstand the heat, then get out if the kitchen.

We have disgraced and humiliated the flat headed miscreants severally, we will completely annihilate them next year.

Yea!

Like you did in Osun where Tinubu cousin was disgraced out of office and Tinubu had to run back to Abuja in shame?

Or like you did in Edo where Ize-Iyamu was disgraced after Tinubu released a video supporting him while proclaiming himself as the father of democracy?

Or like you did in Anambra after APC bought all available stakeholders in Anambra and still came third?

Obi is your next president.

OsunOriginal:
Following Tinubu's successful outing and robust delivery at Chatham House, Obi and his team have fought for a slot on Dec 15 at Chatham House. Instead of facing his campaign at home (which isn't doing well at the moment), Peter Obi is going to London with his team to deliver a speech at Chatham House.

How this will help his dwindling campaign momentum at home is yet to be explained by his handlers.

Are Adeleke’s certificates no longer blurry?

Concentrate on that bro!

Leave Obi matter for Obidients

Tinubu is not just an old drug lord suffering dementia…

He’s also a blood sucking demon.

Nigerians must resist this man at all cost.

This man will destroy all our institutions and bend them to his will and caprice because that’s the only way he’d be able to “run away” with power.

You can imagine the anachronistic mentality that Tinubu has of power…

Over 8 years after a sitting President declared that his ambition is not worth the blood of any Nigerian, a senile old man wants to introduce “do or die” politics into our system again.

Never!

Tinubu and his urchins will be disgraced in Jesus name.

Hmmmm

So Dbanj is a yam eater ?

No wonder we didn’t hear from him during the EndSARS.

Lol

Jonathan finally goes ballistic on old and senile Emilokan idiot and his herds of foolish and brainless BATstards.

To think that Tinubu BATstards harboured an inkling of hope that Jonathan would support Tinubu can only be likened to the 9th wonder of the world.

Like someone said, “the aim is not only to kill Tinubu’s Muslim Muslim ticket but to do it in such a way that nobody will ever contemplate it.”

Ndi ala!

slimfit1:
When you think she has class, she ends up disappointing you with her fat face. She won't arrest the kabals or kabba running her husband's government but has the nerves to chase after innocent-school kids.

Don’t mind her…

Now, the embarrassment is on the international level. The world will now have to judge if what the guy said is true or not.

That someone who was like broom in 2015, is now fat, shapeless and rounded like an elephant, and she said we have no right to ask questions.

If Patience arrested all those who made disparaging tweets about her when she was First Lady, half of Nigeria would be in prison by now.

I’m sure they released that boy because they found out he’s a young terrorist, if not, his journey for long.

Lol

Garfield1

Come and see your Arabambi in the mud.

Light will always triumph over darkness.

CNN International has made a report about the arrest and torture of the young student, Adamu, who made a tweet against her.

This is not good for Nigeria’s image as regards freedom of speech and human rights.

https:///9O7UisvxGF

Nlfpmod
Mynd44

socialmediaman:
Lagos
LP - 350
APC - 315
PDP - 115
Others - 45


Anambra
LP - 400
APC - 15
PDP - 45

E go shock Them! Get Ready

PDP no fit get up to 115 votes in any polling unit in Lagos except the Hausa quarters.

Lagos is strictly between Tinubu and Obi.

Moferere:
Loser hosts loser

Lol! Say it without crying

That’s the Jonathan that Atiku has been sending emissaries to go and beg o!

That’s the Jonathan that Tinubu went hand in cheek to go and beg for support.

But you, without surname, are calling him a loser.

And you think the world will not think u are not fine?

Tor

When human beings are talking, this presidential candidate without a political party will also be talking.

Onye ala!

treesun:
Can Wike sustain this war!

He can!

It is the turn of the south.

Atiku can go to hell.

Aiel123:
I don't believe this is coming from you...
You mean even with a PDP governor in Osun... 5% won't be feasible?
Atiku is winning the SS, come second after Tinubu in SW. PO is not in consideration. His candidacy is a gain for Tinubu.

To win the Southsouth, Atiku will have to win Rivers, Edo, Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa and Delta.

Do you realistically think that is possible?

yomi961:
shut the f*ck up, you think everything ends on nairaland??
Based on previous elections, the south eastern votes are often not as expected. This is not to say that the region can't produce significant number of votes, I for one believe that this is going to change with an Obi on the ballot, but the fact is that votes from Katsina or Kano often cover that of 3 or 4 states in the east. See, elections aren't won by
mere emotions, ethnic or primordial sentiments, they are won through empirical study, critical analysis and due diligence. If by any chance no significant votes do come from the east, you can see reason why Atiku is so confident of winning.

You wanted to pretend to be critical and empirical but ended sounding emotional.

The votes from Southeast, no matter what you make of the number, goes in one direction and this time it will go one way traffic for Obi.

The votes of Kano, Katsina and Kaduna, that used to go one way for Buhari and APC is now being contested, strongly, by three forces; Atiku, Tinubu and Kwankwaso. By the time they are done balkanizing the votes amongst them, you’d would see why the man who will get bloc votes from Southeast will be at an advantage.

If you were empirical, critical and logical enough like you claimed, you would have realized that the dynamics that played out in 2015 and 2019 are no longer at play now.

I know the reality is painful to you but face it and accept it.

Like Southsouth and southeast, nobody will vote Atiku in Southwest.

Tinubu will Southwest and Peter Obi will be following closely at second place.

Atiku will not see 5% of vote cast in any Southwest state including Lagos, Osun and Oyo.

I’m willing to bet on that.

Obinoscopy:
As the presidential election draws near, it's becoming certain to me that there will be a run-off. This is because, there are 4 major contenders (Atiku, Kwankwaso, Obi and Tinubu). These four major candidates will split the votes in each region, therefore making it very difficult to get 25% of the votes in 24 States.

The electoral law and the constitution is very clear, the winner must get both a simple majority and a spread of 25% votes in at least 24 States.

Tinubu dominates only the SW and might not get 25% in the NE and NW as the votes will be split between him, Atiku and Kwankwaso. In the NC, he will also be contending with Atiku and Obi so getting 25% in the States in that region will be difficult. The SS and the SE is almost a no go area for Tinubu. So I don't see Tinubu getting the required 25% spread.

Kwankwaso dominates some parts of NW but will see his votes split between him, Atiku and maybe Tinubu. Kwankwaso has no base in the South so it's clear as day that he won't meet the 25% spread.

Obi dominates the SE and SS. He might get 25% in some SW States and some NC States, but he has no base in the NE and NW. So I don't see him making the spread even though he has more spread than Tinubu and Kwankwaso.

Atiku would have dominated the North if not for Kwankwaso. However, it's almost certain that Atiku will get 25% in the entire North. In the South however, he has lost his base to Peter Obi. So I don't see him getting the 25% there. That invariably means Atiku is not getting the statutory required spread. However if Atiku can pull a 25% in the SS and parts of SE and if he can dominate the North, then Atiku is home and dry.

So based on this analysis, it is safe to say that there is a very strong possibility that this election will go into a run-off. The constitution states that if the elction goes into a run-off, the candidate who had the majority vote will be in the run-off balot. The second candidate that will make the run-off ballot is the candidate who won the highest number of States. So the question is, who are the two candidates that will make the run-off ballot.

My projection is that Kwankwaso will not make it to the run-off.

Obi will only make it to the run-off if he got the majority vote in the initial election. If Obi fails to get the majority vote, he won't make it because I don't see him winning more States than either Tinubu or Atiku.

Atiku will almost certainly make it to the run-off.

Tinubu will only make it if Obi doesn't get the majority vote in the initial election.

So, in summary, all I'm saying is that there will be a presidential run-off because it's a 4-horse race. And the run-off will be between Atiku and Obi/Tinubu. Who will win in the run-off? I don't know. It looks like Atiku will win but I pray the south will unite for once and vote Obi.

Even in your analysis, you made allusion to Obi’s clear victory at first ballot with the requisite spread.

Walk with me…

Obi is sure of victory and more than 25% in all the 5 states of the southeast. That’s 5 states.

Secondly, Obi is sure of victory and more than 25% in all the 6 states of the Southsouth; even Okowa knows he can’t win Delta for Atiku. That’s 11 states of 25% for Obi.

Obi will do 25% in all the 6 states of the Southwest. I’m not saying he will win any state, but he will do 25% in all the states. I don’t see Southwest voting Atiku. Now, add 6 Southwest states to 11 Southsouth and southeast states, that’s 17 states.

Now, let’s go to the North Central…. In the North Central, even opposition has conceded that Obi will win Benue, Plateau and Abuja. That’s 3 states plus 17, which equals to 20 states.

Furthermore, Obi will do 25% in Nasarawa, Kogi, Kaduna and Taraba. That’s 4 states plus 20, there you have your 24 states.

These are very realistic statistics I’ve given you. The only margin of error here might be some states in Southwest which I doubt.

Add the votes that will come from places like Christians in Adamawa, Southern Borno, Southern Gombe, Southern Kebbi, Southern Bauchi and other areas, and you see Obi’s spread and simple majority staring at you in the face.

Tor

MURIC never talk finish and Sanwolu don rush dey Obey.

Na so him fear MURIC reach?

Boy boy governor

LegalWolf:
Let us analyse the three states you mentions:

Abuja We have six LG in Abuja, two HOR and One Senate. All these positions are dominated by PDP majorly and then APC. Also bear in mind that the natives of these places share no affinity to PO neither are Southerners the majority inhabitant of FCT. Again, there is the Muslim factor. So what do you expect?

Southern Kaduna - why would an SK man vote PO when Atiku is there? Remember Makarfi (although from Kaduna North, he is well respected in KS) is still in PDP. There are several PDP heavyweight in SK as well. In fact, APC cannot realistically win Southern Kaduna not to talk of PDP

Adamawa - Land of Beauty? Talk more of 10% than 30%. When Binani and other big wigs are there. APDP will jointly get at least 80%. You have even sidelined Kwakwanso's in Adamawa. In fact, let us break it down LG by LG. Mention one LG that Obi will win.. Is Yola North/Jimeta? Yola South? Fufore? Hong? Mubi....Where exactly?

Lol!

Peter Obi a passerby in Abuja?

Let’s leave this talk till after February next year.

kingmaster2009:
See day +dreamer....you sit hopelessly and be typing gibberish ...
30 percent of votes in Adamawa state....for Obi....
If he gets 3 percent, he really tries...

Have you been to Adamawa state I'm your life...?

Even Benue and Jos is a battlegrounds for the 3 major candidates

Obi should forget about Abuja

Forget Abuja for who?

Even Buhari’s kinsmen, who he loves more than even Hausas that gave his fathers shelter, hate him too.

Buhari is a disaster everywhere.

LegalWolf:
On Atiku

I am a little bit confuse on how Atiku can realistically win SE. There are five States in the SE, listed below:

Imo
Ebonyi
Abia
Enugu
Anambra

Imo and Ebonyi are both APC States and I expect that the governors will try and deliver for their parties. Even if APC will not win those states, the chances are better for Peter Obi being the son of soil. So at least 60% of the votes will go to Obi with the rest being shared by the rest (with APC likely coming second)

Abia and Enugu are both PDP controlled states. However, the governors abhors Atiku's ambitions and will do everything to scuttle Atiku winning in those states. Like above, we expect Atiku to gallantly scramble for votes here as well. The same story goes for Anambra.

So can anyone logically explain how PDP hopes to win any state in the SE ?? (I expect 5/5 for PO).

On Peter Obi

I am still convinced that PO cannot win any local government in the North. The only chance he has is Benue because Ortom will likely support him. But outside there, can anyone realistically tell me any local government in the North that PO can win? Just one

Nobody will vote Atiku in the Southeast.

About the north, you claimed Obi only stands a chance in Benue…

Who is winning Plateau?

Who is winning Abuja?

Who do you think will win Southern Kaduna?

Do you know that Obi is likely to do over 30% of votes cast in Adamawa, Atiku’s home state?

I am expecting realistic answers

Just like the arrest of Nnamdi Kanu made him popular and escalated the IPOB issue, same way the arrest of this Adamu has escalated this Aisha Buhari case.

Now all of know she’s fat and blown up from eating what was supposed to be our common patrimony.

The Buharis are brainless; whether the “Mr” or the “Mrs”.

They are a mistake that we would have escaped if not for Tinubu’s stupidity and greed.

Tenses:
No Sir!! Urchins are born to cry and die by 2.07pm on election day.

Very terrible life they have

doggedfighter:




Thankfully the fight is over.

Who's the elderly happy man ?

Are you sure that’s not the Uduaghan, her husband?

Heartbreak for Tinubu BATstards

They were already salivating that the state house of Assembly will soon impeach Adeleke but they no born dem well to try to toil with the mandate of Osun people.

Will this stop Tinubu BATstards from crying?

Lol

Tinubu is running to Oyibo while Oyibo is running to Peter Obi.

Levels!

Ok…

It’s now obvious that this Op is one of Oshiomole’s paid urchins.

The nkapi only writes about Tinubu and Oshiomole - two ugly imps.

SIawomir:
I didn't actually believe it at first, I never took it serious, but I'm actually seeing firsthand the bitterness and filth that constitutes the mind of some depraved individuals. So of a truth, individuals are supporting controversial politicians, not based on their ability or merits, but just so they can spite a tribe. It's quite pathetic.

cc Nwamamaiwota baddestqueen racoon penguin2 mrvitalis

Look at what politics has reduced a grown man to(screenshot attached).

You shouldn’t be surprised; some of us aren’t.

These guys don’t like Tinubu nor do they believe he has anything to offer Nigeria, but they just can’t grow above primordial sentiments to vote for someone not their tribe.

They are behaving as if when Nigeria starts to burn that they’d have a different place to hide.

Give them no heed!

Lol!

There’re levels to this shit niggur…

While Tinubu is in London making fool of himself, UN delegation are visiting Peter Obi in his office in Nigeria.

I’m sure they are already intimating him on how to attend his first UNGA.

Peter Obi is the next president, Tinubu BATstards can go and die.