₦airaland Forum

KarlTom:
OandO...

Time to do some JIJO

The big buyers will show up later in the day.

chimex38:
Thank you for the Real time update..#much appreciated.

Nevertheless, the Okpai plant is in 2 phases:1 and 2.

Just to be clear Sir:
Are you certain it's the entire Power plant not currently connected to the Grid or just the phase 2 that's not connected as stated on the punch article?
Thanks for the effort to update the group..

As for your second paragraph..
No harm done..
There nothing like negativity or badbelle, when there is a constructive criticism towards a stock and it's worth considering or giving a real time info.
Same goes for positivity or "goodbelle" , when there is a constructive praise towards a stock worth considering.

If the thread is monotonous, it won't serve the purpose of having a diverse group of people.

Good morning @Chimex. Sorry for late response. I was off for a while. I did not discuss phases. My only understanding is that it is one site for the power plant and the transmission station. There was the necessity to sand fill the whole site. But the IOC sand filled only the power plant side. The project cannot be done without the base sand filled. This later got complicated by the other issues.

chimex38:
Constructive criticism is welcomed..

Concerning the Okpai Power plant..As at March 2024:

Yes, 480MW has been connected to Grid.( ABJ, Anambra n Enugu,etc...)
As for the upgraded MW,
No, I don't think it's been connected yet due to no fault of the power Plant but the TCN.
132kv Transmission line needed for evacuation of the power supply hasn't been constructed yet(Punch: March 2024).

Link:
https://punchng.com/senate-probes-delay-in-power-distribution-to-delta-communities/#google_vignette

The bolded may not be correct. Just talked with an Engineer at TCN and he categorically said that Okpai is NOT yet connected to the grid. There are engineering foundation, access, security and contractual issues to resolve before the necessary systems needed to evacuate the power can be constructed.

Please don't take this as being -ve. Just trying to learn the actual position from sources I know. I believe whatever problems are preventing the project can be resolved by Oando given their connections.

Laso09:
Background
It is also called Okpai power plant, Kwale-Okpai Independent Power Plant, Kwale Powerplant or the Kwale IPP[10][11]. The phase 2 expansion is also called Okpai Phase 2, Kwale IPP Phase II[10] and Okpai Phase II Independent Power Project (IPP),[12] depending upon which company is talking about it.[13]

Phase 1 of the plant was commissioned in 2005.[12] In 2017 Oando Plc secured the Nigerian federal government’s approval for an expansion, essentially doubling the plant's size.[14][15][16]

Oando reported spending on $17.5 million on capital expenditures on Kwale IPP Phase II in 2017,[10] indicating construction had begun.

Over the years, Oando has faced serious financial issues that came to a head in mid-2019 when Nigeria's Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) ordered Oando's entire board to resign.[17]

The plant's commissioning was delayed to Q3 of 2019[18], however even post-commissioning in 2020 power was not being sent to the grid

Thanks so much for your clarification. But please be patient with me as I am now having more questions. Is my understanding correct that this is a single power plant initially built by the FGN under the IPP projects of OBJ, which was then purchased and expanded by Oando? If so how did Eni come into the picture?

debeey87:
Okpai and kwale can't use over 500MW of electricity as they are a small community. I don't know about the installed capacity at the Ebocha center.

Ok so where is the generated power going if not the national grid? Oyibo doesn't do zero work. They will not install that much capacity if they are not using it.

ositadima1:
This is a very interesting point. It does not seem like their power plants are linked to the national grid, based on my experience while I was at Ebocha.

The surrounding community was using free electricity; nobody paid a dime. The power supply was steady. Also, the gas plant in Omoku was used to power the Ebocha Oil Center operations. As far as I know, these power generating plants are not commercial but used to run the in-house operations and neighboring communities.

If Oando decides to commercialize this power, then it will be a big issue between them and the surrounding communities.

So Oando is really buying a liability here. They will soon learn why Eni had to leave. I hope they did their DD well.

olig:
It seems you have very little or no idea about the initial topic and your comment about ASUU.

Are you aware that every penny generated by every federal university is going directly to the TSA ? This includes the 400 naira vehicle sticker (so that you have an idea).
Are you aware that every institution in Nigeria is now a revenue generating institution?
Are you aware that Crawford University (a private university) paid over 300 million of Naira for the month of May 2024?
Are you aware of the outcry of Dr Save a life that pays 20 million naira for a month in just one of his hospital units?
Are you aware that one bedroom self contain pays between 15 to 20k per month in band A?

I guess UNILAG will be on the band A.

Fine, universities should be able to generate electricity on their own. But where is the initial fund? Is it the university where students needs to send samples to Canada, US, SA, etc for analysis, because of lack of equipments?

Anyway, I understand your pain, as you latter mentioned. One year is a long time to waste, I agree. But trust me, if not for ASUU push, I wonder where Nigeria universities would have been.

I worked in a Nigerian university. I know what university funding and fund utilization are like. Most infrastructure and equipment in universities had nothing to do with ASUU push as you put it. They are just a bunch of heartless people who don't care about the lives of the young people they are training. ASUU has resisted every move to make universities truly self supporting, including the recent student loan idea.

Mpeace:
If not for ASUU, some of us for no go school.

That is what they made you believe. On the other hand it's because of ASUU that many never graduated.

ololufemi:
Many of these institutions should be generating their own power source and electricity for use within their environment rather than relying on government subvention and subsidies.

Their environments should be an ecosystem on its own. I don't see why UniLag should not have a ferry station and services from there to the Island?

Almost all Universities have massive land, water and economic resources that can be used for cash crops, food crops, water supply, housing, etc by generating power supply, food security, affordable housing, and planned towns through their various departments or faculties. I have always believed that economic and income activities (excluding subsidies on education) in Universities should be run by seasoned business and management experts with proven experience in the corporate world to enable them become sustainable.

Nobody is coming to have save Nigerians except themselves. If only most Nigerians could have a glimpse of what obtains abroad, the leaders won't be taking them for a ride and wasting resources.

You have to get rid of ASUU first. They are the ultimate leaches that believe everything has to come from government. If Unilag is a private university in the example you gave they would have built the ferry.

emmanuelewumi:
Because you don't rebalance your portfolio, I told you to book profit on Transcorp Hotel that the price does not make sense at over N100

Have you forgotten that United Capital was marked down, with your 600,000 units of UCAP that alone would reduce your portfolio value by about N10 million until the 1.2 million bonus shares are credited to your CSCS account .

Yes. Isn't it crazy? I still wonder why, at today's level of technology and speed of business, it takes so long for CSCS accounts to be credited with bonus shares.

megawealth01:
Soonest UNITY BANK will be the toast of many INVESTORS for many months...

Expect the unbelievable. Take position once suspension is lifted...

GenerationalWealth might be loading in the COY

It's going to be another bank that FGN will have special interest in especially in the area of farming...

Bulaba will do all he can not to disappoint the north because of 2027... Many Northerns are heavily invested in that COY so nothing negative will happen there...

Write this down somewhere...

Few will take positions but many will queue up to have a taste of unity but by then it will be above #5... Just look at the transformation of WEMA... The possibility of UNITY getting to #10 is just matter of Mr Time and the profitability of the coy

Read my past chats about how I kept shouting g"amble Oando" in the past when it was trading at sub #6

The beauty of this game is get in early and start exiting when the MM are now involved maybe you can lock some parts of your profits with them until they are done with their games

A new dawn is here for UNITY BANK... No longer business has usual

What do you think the new bank will be called Unity or Providus? Either way don't you think they will have to do a restructuring including a share restructuring?

Don't you think the suspension is intentional for a CBN regulated bank? Usually banks that are defaulting go through a license withdrawal by CBN first.

How long did it take your portfolio to hit N50m? What did you start with? What was your biggest break?

Mankind2024:
My View on the Illusion of Stock Overvaluation and Why Investors Should Rethink Stock Valuation.
When Total was trading at sub-N400 a year ago, it appeared overvalued in the sights of many investors.
Low liquidity and low volume were also cited by some forum members, with daily prices sometimes static. Then, speculations by retail investors emerged that there was a hidden gem in the company. The story changed, and the price is now heading towards the N1,000 mark, same is true for OANDO, We NSEMPA members single handedly dictate its current price.
This motivated me to research why the concept of stock valuation using the traditional methods of FA, CCA, ABV, GGM, EV/EBITDA, P/S RATIO, P/B RATIO, DCF, DDM, P/E RATIO
All these may no longer be absolutely relevant in modern settings. No wonder the legendary investor Warren Buffett described the modern stock market as a casino due to massive participation by retail investors. Behavioral and financial psychology is now the order of the day.
In light of this, I came up with the following supporting opinions to buttress the assertion that the concept of stock overvaluation lies in the eyes of an individual(buyer), not the dictate of the market.

In the era of digital mobile technologies and social media, the investing landscape has undergone a significant transformation. The emergence and active participation of retail investors has revolutionized the way stock prices are determined, rendering traditional notions of overvaluation obsolete. It's time for investors to abandon the concept of overvaluation and embrace a new reality: a stock's value is ultimately determined by what individual investors are willing to pay.

_Subjective Valuation_

Stock valuation has always been subjective, with different investors holding varying opinions on a stock's worth. What one investor considers overvalued, another might see as undervalued. This disparity highlights the futility of relying solely on traditional valuation metrics.

_The Rise of Retail Investors

The influx of retail investors has demonstrated that collective individual opinions can drive stock prices, making traditional notions of overvaluation less relevant. As more investors participate in the market, their collective sentiment and speculation shape stock prices. This concept alone was the reason my boss Oga Agba has been locked out of the market. He is still waiting for the index to obey the dictate of Ichimoku and fibonacci. 😆 🤣 😂 😹

_Speculation and Sentiment

Speculation and market sentiment, fueled by digital technologies and social media, significantly impact stock prices. This makes it challenging to determine intrinsic value, as prices are influenced by various market dynamics, such as momentum, trends, and herd behavior.

_A New Era of Investing_

The digital age has ushered in a new era of investing, where information dissemination and accessibility have empowered individual investors. Traditional valuation metrics are no longer dominant, as investors rely on diverse sources of information to inform their decisions.

_Price Discovery_

The true value of a stock is ultimately determined by what investors are willing to pay, making price discovery a dynamic and constantly evolving process. This reality underscores the importance of understanding market sentiment and speculation.

_Efficient Market Hypothesis_

The efficient market hypothesis suggests that prices reflect all available information, making it challenging to consistently achieve returns in excess of the market's average. This theory supports the idea that stock prices are influenced by individual opinions and speculations.

_Behavioral Finance_

Behavioral finance highlights how psychological biases and emotions influence investment decisions. This further supports the notion that stock prices are influenced by individual opinions and speculations rather than solely by fundamental valuations.

Lastly, the concept of overvaluation is no longer relevant in today's investing landscape. Investors must adapt to a new reality, where stock prices are determined by individual opinions, speculation, and market sentiment. By embracing this shift, investors can better navigate the complexities of the modern market and make more informed investment decisions.

This means TA is the way.

Oando traded 93.8m shares worth N6.8b. Clearly institutional buyers at play. Probably Wale himself was buying.

yMcy56:
Ok. So fair value is now around 76, not 16 again?
*Edited* 😁

Madam I didn't say it. This where I saw it.

brotherly:
2.3b Naira has changed hands on Oando alone this morning . 28m bids still unfulfilled.

Smart money deciding it's time. One analyst website gave the fair value around 76.

The way people are hyping Oando and Aradel now is exactly how BUBBLES are formed in the stock market. The news about Aradel buying Olo and Olo West oil fields was out some 2 to 3 weeks ago, and is now being recycled as breaking news. People should be careful because bubbles do burst. This is just a caution. Please don't read me wrong. There is a famous Buffet saying to be afraid when others are not.

emmasoft:
@Raider76, you must first open a NASD cscs account with a firm that is have NASD trading license before you can register on the app for trading.

You can open a NASD cscs account with investment one.

Thanks

Please those trading on NASD, how does one fund one's account? I tried registering on my phone they ask for CSCS number. Is it same as CHN? Or must one open a CSCS account with a broker first and supply that number?

yMcy56:
Oga make una dey interprete it the way it seems to you jare.
I don talk my own.
Anyone wey fit read the post and explain can also give us his/her own view/explanation.

Madam please no vex.

yMcy56:
More like it...
The bids you can see at highest price of 69.95 are far more than what Morgan is displaying possibly.
Morgan only showing first 100 Orders......and if you noticed, the few bids that are selling on the floor did not alter the number at all.......the queue long.....
Some of the few ones we can see as sales are even more of cross deals.

Those shouting gamble gamble no gree sell again.
Our Oga that said 'e don cast" self don hold tight to his stakes. Lol

It is well.

Thanks Madam. But you don't seem to get my point. Please read my post again.

I seems Morgan iTrade bid/offer table for some reason only shows bids at the highest bid price of 69.95 for Oando. This gives the impression that Oando is on a full perfect bid with nobody looking to buy it lower. I just placed a bid at 69.00. The bid was accepted but not shown on the table. I expect that if all bids are at 69.95 then my only bid of 69.00 should have been listed below those bids. Does this mean anything?

Capitas7:
Fair one!
But I don't think someone who bought shares at $25 a few decades ago and still holds when valued at $600k would see 5% as satisfactory annual yield. With many 50-200 baggers, 5% won't be motivation to pile cash up. Moreover, many of the stocks that are giving us latecomers 1-4% dividends are probably returning 50% dividends on cost price for him. But that said, the rates on high yield savings or CD's are quite negotiable when your principal falls in certain brackets.

You forgot that inflation rate there is normally only 2% to 3%

KarlTom:
CAVEAT

There is a lot of manipulation going on in OandO.

I took this screenshot today at 12:25hrs. See the first set of bids: 3,000,000, 50,000, 100,000, 300,000, 850,000, 10,000, 3,120, 22,819, 6,000
By 14:19hrs, ALL those bids were still there IN THE EXACT ORDER!

Whereas if you check the TRADES, you'll notice that over 2,000,000 units changed hands in over 90 deals between 12:25hrs and 14:19hrs

Be on the lookout for telltale signs.

Every mallam to his kettle...

Probably it won't reach 100 before you see offers

yMcy56:
Think he's talking about this attached page.
Wow! I'm just seeing it too....
Went to search for it based on his post.

We need to know if individual CSCS has been credited with the bonus then.

https://ngxgroup.com/exchange/data/company-profile/?symbol=VFDGROUP&directory=companydirectory

I checked and found the 18b SO of UCAP has been entered too. Maybe this has nothing to do with actual allotment.

CHAMS has joined the full bid club.

mails4funshi:
It has been added on the NGXGROUP/Shares Outstanding Page.
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/DownloadsContent/SHARES%20OUTSTANDING%20FOR%2027-08-2024.pdf

Please are you saying the VFD new shares have already been allocated? The link you gave is not going.

Streetinvestor2:
I didn't really like the 18B Os.i wished it was 12B.Then again it looks they are working seriously to support the 18B Os with this recent 3 moves

1.Handling fund thing for one of this African country
2.The new microfinance bank
3.The lead insuring house for nigeria 50million dollars bond by the government
I expect good revenue coming from those places.
Still it would have been better they did 1 for 1 bonus

They needed the N6b capitalized from the bonus issue to get the mfb to a good start.
My thoughts.

vacanci:
A better performance than UCAP if i must say.

VFD EPS was not annualized. Profit after tax was around 3B naira with outstanding shares of around 1.25B after the split and rights issue. if you annualize their EPS of 2.45, you get 4.9

UCAPprofit after tax was around 7.7B. if we consider the current outstanding share of 18B units after the bonus, EPS will be around 0.43 and if you annualize it, it will be around N0.86

So with the above, the P/E ratio for VFD will be 9.18 (45/4.9) while P/E ratio of UCAP is 21.5 (18.5/0.86)

which one is cheaper?

abeg let those who sabi calculate correct any mistake i make. I may be wrong and it's opened for debate.

Before UCAP will earn N1 per share, it has to make a profit after tax of at least N18 Billion going forward. The dilution is not bad per say, but the price of the stock now is the issue. And to enjoy at least 10% dividend from 18 B naira net income, the share price has to be N10 maximum

Of what effect will their new mfb fintech UCEE be?

yMcy56:
SFSREIT too moved @+10%
Now @134.90 ...up with 12+

Please what's causing this bull beyond Oando?

megawealth01:
They might want to start another fight for control...

DYOR

If they do we will start seeing several million shares in cross deals.

FBNH is quietly moving up despite the AGM postponement. Are the waring parties accumulating?