₦airaland Forum

BullBearMkt:
...if this led to pullback, there is no specific duration how long it will last, but we have idea how far the pullback can go. Timing depends on market emotions.

BullBearMkt:
MARKET IS SCREAMING CAUTION!!!
NSE All Share Index starts the week on a bullish tone with the index appreciated by 0.73%. Very encouraging. However, the candlestick formed after the close is called SHOOTING STAR. Technically, this indicate potential price tops and reversal is likely imminent. The market is therefore shouting caution to whosoever want to listen.

Same candlestick pattern is observed this same time last year bull run (black circle), as you can see, there was a "major" pullback in the market.

This doesn't mean the rally cannot continue, but it is a warning to those that follow Technical Analysis.

Cheers

yom2:
ok, is he in charge of d market machines?

yok:
My advise is that we should not allow our profits to turn to a loss. For example on FBN, I was able to get in at NGN3.61 (purchase price including commission and other charges, I pay fairly high commission with my Stockbroker, but this is like 1.73% on the average, this doesn’t worry me as they do a good job by getting me the best prices both in and out), if anything happens and the prices retraces to below 4.70, I will exit halve of my holding with about NGN1.00 per share. I will not allow a profit to turn to a loss.

If there is a retracement, I will buy more shares/look for new purchases as long as there is no breakdown in the supply point/support. A breakdown of the support means, it is time to slow down on new investments.

The above sound interesting and logical. The days of the big losses will be over with this supply and demand point strategy. I will be posting more of this, but may not necessarily be explaining what is supply and demand all the time.

Caution: This is my personal opinion. Use at your own risk. If you need supply/demand point on any stock, you can contact me. I am enjoying this market good time.

lancee:
Highly volatile

BullBearMkt:
...next major resistance is @ 31,078 with minor one close to 30K
This is Wave 1 from the Impulse wave; aint seen anything yet

fxuser:
On days like these , i look at link below:
https://www.globalxfunds.com/funds/nge/

- see csv file
- i randomly track every now and then to see if changes in holdings of nge ETF
- i notice d cash position is up while holdings have been growing umm
- its highly skewed towards nb m gt and zenith m they make up 45% of fund

#JustObserving


Thank you boss

God bless you plenty

Tracking this cld help serve as a very rough gauge of FPI temperature towards NSE in the absence of direct NAFEX volume which cld ve been a better gauge

Willie2015:
Bros, just plan your trade as always preached by BullBear, you wont worry about market noise.

You can always watch the Volume Analysis on your chart. Only volume is the true indicator of price action, no one can manipulate volume.

fxuser:
Emefiele will be smiling
30 billion for account
Oil above 50
Prod > 2m bbl
Devalued via NAFEX without political and public back lash codedly

#WeyDonSir

BullBearMkt:
...kindly see my responses in bold blue fonts

BullBearMkt:
...wait for Daily pullback while the Weekly is still bullish

BullBearMkt:
SHOULD INVESTORS SELL IN MAY AND COME BACK IN SEPTEMBER?
I love analyst backing up their assertions with data or evidences. I have been hearing the popular statement, "sell in May and Come back in September" since I can even remember. Experience they say, is the best teacher. This may be what many investors have witnessed and encountered in the market place.

I have been looking at NSE data recently to determine if this assertion is valid. To a large extent, the statement is valid, but with a little modification. Table below shows NSE winning percentage rates. Between 2002 to 2016, the month of May has the highest winning rate (73%) followed by June at 53% and the least is August having just 27% wins. Selling in May after reaching my investment objectives seem fine, but June is not totally bad either.

That is not the whole story, before the great depression in 2008, sell in May and come back in September did not hold water as virtually all the months won apart from August which was flat. However, after the economic depression in Nigeria, the theory is reasonable; only month of May appreciated by 67% while the remaining 3 months are on losing streak.

What interest me however is in the chart below. The almost similarities between Price & MACD from March 2012 and March 2017 is of interest to me. The arrows on the chart are pointing at the Month of May. Nigeria economy started picking up from 2008 depression in 2010 and GDP was growing before it got to its peak in 2014. Impact of the economy recovery is shown on Investors attitude towards investment on NSE ALL Share Index.

Yesterday, MPC reported a GDP growth rate of -0.52 better than previous 4 quarters. This is an improvement in the economy.

Key Questions
-If the economy is improving, will investors shy away from investment, NSE in particular?
-If the economy is improving, why should I sell my holdings in May again?
-If the economy is improving, do I have to go away until September?
-If the economy is improving, can I get fundamentally sound stocks that are not yet overbought and invest in them for long term?
-If the economy is improving, what do I do with fundamentally sound stocks that are in overbought level?

Presently, the market is flat and seriously looking for a catalyst to either continue its bullishness or drive it down. Will the theory of sell in May and come back in September valid in 2017? Personally, I don't know. But one thing I know is that with improving economy, there will be opportunities in the Market to tap into in June through August.

NB: Winning Percentage is the ratio of the number of year stocks appreciated/gained to the total number of years considered

fxuser:
Not sure how shallow or deep but for stocks in an uptrend (where SP >major trend lines, Eg: big 4 banks)
We expect to see prices make higher lows after d recent rally to higher highs (HH) and then continue since nothing moves in straight line

fxuser:
bears finally taking their turn
#Pullback season

BullBearMkt:
...Smart man!!!
If it was wave 1, then comes wave 2 before the "biggi" you're waiting for...let's take a look

feelamong:
Dont worry...In a weeks"s time we would compare our notes...

From the Sea View mansion top where I am seating now..I am seeing a lot of mopping up being done..

fxuser:
MIB tranx . . ! wow

BullBearMkt:
...Absolutely correct!!!

austinkenneth:
I don't still know what it is exactly. Still observing.

austinkenneth:
Transcorp, FCMB, Fidelity and now UBA. JIJO guys are exiting

Willie2015:
Banks rally still need one more day, I beg this bull to wait for one more day.

austinkenneth:
This rally seems to be slowing down.

robobo:
please anybody that could help with source to get daily volume on NAFEX txns?

robobo:
.

in that case mayb we need to start following the volume on d NAFEX as a tracker/ proxy for the direction on the NSE.

Where can one get the volume done daily on the NAFEX window (i think FMDQ only quote the price)

BullBearMkt:
...Absolutely correct!!!

BullBearMkt:
...black arrow pointing to the next resistance level; previous support is a step before the arrow. What a BULL RUN!

fxuser:
- This has happened technically & quietly with the introduction of NAFEX window (investors window) !
- Using the Nigeria ETF has a gauge, foreign holdings have adjusted to the Investor window price rather than d official price
- Technically , investors have been hit wt a devaluation from N306/$ to N380/$ region
- also making Nigeria cheaper in dollar terms anyway . .

lancee:
Why a week Bull on impt stocks ?
Is the Economy getting beta , or Are the foreign porf managers back[cos of the window forex ] or who dey buy all these stocks
Are they seeing what am not seeing

Pls any info ..Myjoy08, Tritri, coolcash , Angelo , Bullbear, intendy , Manonamission and others