₦airaland Forum

fxuser:
loll
u wud have to apply d Robobo Discounted Cash Flow model using the PRAMT random walk pattern analysis
una no go kee me here loll
need a beer
cheers good people.

.

lol

The PRAMT is not all Spiritual, there is some part of the equation that is science if u use UBA / ACCESS as a an example.

that use to be between 0.6 and 0.7 until the most recent bull ( up until April )

currently it is between 0.9 - 0.95

anything outside this band currently is an invitation to arbitrage (subject to txn cost)

someone here also once establish a PRAMT between Dangsugar and Dangflour (though i cant remember the figure used then)

Oga Prof

i await your response

fxuser:
the distance btw gt and zenith is outside d bands of Prof Rugged Avg Moving Tolerance #PRAMT
it is certain that one of d above must adjust to acceptable PRAMT levels
And we know wh one ! ( dat wh d wkly RSI crosses 69.1 )

#tgif

@prof @fxuser

what do u think the ideal PRAMT is (.6 / .7 / 0.8

what is d historical PRAMT (.6 / .7 / 0.8

wld appr8 a response

fxuser:
vol precedes price & price precedes news

words on marble

action shall be judged according to intention

intention = volume

price = action

DeRuggedProf:
Even when results are good, the price may have been factored into the price already and rally may last only for part of a trading session, a day or two, then lamentations take over.
The good result may reverse after auditing at year end.
In some cases, the price starts dropping immediately after a wonderful result and you become confused...

Look at year to date return of a stock you want to buy. Look at its support and resistance and [b]also look at where it traded very high volumes last [/b]and you may get a little guide in addition.

Word

also as a small caveat to the bold neglect the crossdeals when looking at these high volumes cos they cld be misleading (a la recent UBA 2.08b units crossdeal)

pluto09:
I will not be suprised if it turns out that vanguard retract that story. I cant connect with what the story is
saying.

Thank you

That Vanguard report was written by a financial illiterate ( no insult intended).

How can you be saying that Afriprudential be buying the shares and UBA is cancelling the same shares in the SAME report.

fxuser:
umm i have this book
Just go straight to Chapter 6: The Psychology of panics

pg 140


pg 140a

'' capital markets have

Thank you appr8

DeRuggedProf:
HOLD.

Offers were blocked deliberately in an oil coy...

Oga Prof but why u dey vex for this txn naaaa

Oga Intendy warn of a technical suspension on d Stock some days ago naaaa

maybe that is the "technical suspension"

pluto09:
But one would want to ask, why didnt the management buy the share back when uba was selling for N4 or N5

wicked question

but i think it is because share buy back is not authorized in Nigeria (just like short selling is not ) , i might be wrong though

could also be because this is being bought back from a staff scheme which has a shelf life which just matured (hence not available when it was N3 /N4 / N5 e.t.c)

my layman thinking though, wld appr8 the experts opinion on same

DeRuggedProf:
https://www.google.com.ng/?gfe_rd=cr&ei=7_ptWZXACq-k8wffxYjwAg&gws_rd=ssl#q=MARKET+PANIC+STEPHEN+VINES+PDF

God Bless you plenty Sir (i have something to consume for the wekend)

This is the unquantifiable benefit of this forum

and not unnecessary bickering

shigidi:
The OCI to me represents available for sale equities or bonds THAT HAVE NOT BEEN liquidated yet. Paper profit. If they do not liquidate at year end, it is not transferrable

better insight and clarity, was only looking at the equity side of the business, totally agree with the "paper profit".

thank you

BullBearMkt:
...if UCAP's Q2 results is not good, don't worry keep dumping your holdings...Smart monies (sentiment investors/traders) are ready to accumulate everything even at previous low in March!!!

...just been sarcastic!

they are already doing that. double 20 days average volume (6m units) already traded as at half day today


there could be room for more though

rebekah2011:
I do not think it is a disappointing results. Check the OCI, if this is factored the EPS will be 56k.

the available for sale which carries almost 1.4b in the OCI should denote the income from proprietary trading of the stockbroking arm

however the real question here should be "would the income be shareable (dividend) at the end of the year when the income is moved to P&L? considering that the fair value reserve is already in negative.

practicing accountants in the house could help out here as i am very rustic knowledge wise on its treatment



Caveat: im VERY heavy here

DeRuggedProf:
Another priceless advice, but only people like me who were severally detained there will likely value this reminder.
'JI' is almost always possible, but the 'JO' part is where the scenario may get tricky for days, weeks or even months.
Anytime you want to 'JI' into an illiquid stock, Imagine being asked to submit your manhood in exchange for a beautiful virgin.
After this momentary reflection, you may proceed with your purchase....

Very wicked analogy

i wld keep that in mind not only on illiquid stock but on most transactions i entered into

classical agba lowo meri

BullBearMkt:
...yes, we are still in corrective wave 4. Wave 5 will be confirmed after breaking the highs of wave 4 (pointed arrow)

thank you

appreciate your response

BullBearMkt:
...correct. Over 25% of Impulse wave 3 has already been reversed

@bullbear @fxuser

where are we on this wave (still corrective wave 4) ?

BullBearMkt:
WHAT IS THE MARKET DIRECTION IN JULY?
Historically, the month of July is more bearish than bullish. As indicated in the table below, between 2002 and 2016, 63% of the time, July is more bearish than 47% it is bullish. Breaking this further down; the years we witnessed explosive bullishness on NSE (between 2002 -2007), July was more bullish as 67% of the times, July ended in price appreciation in the market. On the other hand, between 2008 - 2016, which are the worst years on NSE, the market price appreciated as little as 33% of the time.

Considering above statistics, where will be market direction go this month?

Let start by looking at recent activities this year. From mid April, NSE ASI has since created new 52 week high with many stocks creating new highs every single day as investors' sentiments keep increasing. On top of this, Nigeria economy is said to be coming out of recession as the country's GDP has been consistently growing. All these are pointing to the fact that we are in a bullish year.

Analysing recent market activities, last week Friday's market close was bearish, but that is what I call, "a good bear". Using 5 mins chart, bears initially drove market price down to 32,766 before the bulls came in forcefully and took the price up to 33,117 in order to ensure that NSE price depreciation is kept "low" at -0.46%. Adding market close with previous 3 day candlestick gives a Doji pattern. Meaning for 4 consecutive days market cannot decide which direction to take the price to.

Technically, from the close of Friday, price can go either up or down. So, future trading days are critical to determine market direction in July. If price can close above the highs created in the last 4 days (on high volume), more bulls will be introduced into the market, however, if bears can attack the market ferociously and dominate, a close below the low of the last 4 days will further drive the price down!

REASONS FOR PRICE GOING UP IN JULY
-We are in a bull market
-Growing investors' sentiments
-Growth in GDP and Manufacturing index
-NSE 30 most capitalised stocks Q2 reports to be more positive and market perception of such reports
-Oil price Rising cum Falling in value of Dollars globally: Major determinants will be this week's FOMC meeting and US Nonfarm Payroll reports


REASONS FOR PRICE GOING DOWN IN JULY
-Historically, July favours bears more than bulls
-Many banks exposure to NPL
-Unforeseen unrest locally & govt handling

WHERE DOES BULLBEARMKT STANDS?
Let me state before hand that market does not respect individual opinion or analysis, what we are just doing is to provide educative prediction based on experiences.
If the price can close above previous 4 days high as explained before, I am of the opinion that with the high market sentiments and growth in economic data, July is more likely to end in price appreciation. My trading plan is to pick stock(s) of interest and look for long-term support level to place my entry with a pre-determined stop loss, which I can easily control and allow market to determine my profits (if any).

Welcome you all to the month of July (the month of "7")... what does 7 means to you?

Chief thank you for this

God bless you real good

ibe9ja:
The bulls may resurface next week but they won't last.

.

Hello Chief.

kindly share your reason why u stated that it wnt last

wld appr8

BullBearMkt:
...correct. Over 25% of Impulse wave 3 has already been reversed

.

Thank you chief

i am trying to keep my eyes on the macro so as to use it as the northern star for the micro

thank you once again

BullBearMkt:
...sorry, you're wrong. Not yet

hello Chief

a we now witnessing the corrective 4th impulse wave?

fxuser:
Banks
- the big 4 pull back is much different from the non-big 4
- its shows the type of active players in both
- if d penny banks drop below N1 for ex, d support will turn up like winch lol (me included)

Hello Chief

Kindly expatiate on bold

who are d type of active players in teh big 4 and the non big 4 respectively

BullBearMkt:
MARKET IS DEFINITELY SICK
For couple of weeks NSE ASI has been on a very impressive rally, causing more stocks to create new 52 week high every single day! However, recently, as the market price is rising, momentum is falling. short term breadth indicators (AD line, McClellan Oscillators) are drastically falling. Technically, this indicates that the market is not healthy.

To be healthy, market price and momentum needs to align. Either market price will swallow its pride and go to meet momentum (meaning market pullbacks) or momentum goto meet price on its "mountainous castle" (price continue to rally).

My opinion is that greed (sentiment) will push the market price above 2 year high at around 35,770 before there can be any pullback (if there will be any at all) in coming days.

this was what i perceive (though i cldnt explain it technically as u just did) when i asked yday if the 4th corrective impulse wave has begun

the increase in ASI for d past few days (3 - 4 trading days) had been largely due to last minute minute (2.00pm upward) gain in the stock of big cap (e.g Dangote and NB in particular) while overall market had been flat at best and in some cases even a decline.

i think for dis reason the second options (i.e pullback) is more likely however the big cap stock might still pull the usual last minute stunt for some few more days to get to the mark u mentioned (35770) before the pull back begins.

BullBearMkt:
...sorry, you're wrong. Not yet

ok sir thank you appreciate ur response

BullBearMkt:
...next resistance is @ 35,770 & previous support @31,078
We are still in Elliot Wave 1, Impulse wave 3. Expecting Corrective wave 4 anytime soon

Hello Oga BullBearMkt

it seems corrective impulse wave 4 is currently on?

kindly correct me if i am wrong

wld appr8 if the fundamentalist in teh house help critique the numbers / assumption of cardinalstone as per link belo


thank you


https://www.proshareng.com/news/Stock---Analyst-Updates/Transnational-Corporation-of-Nigeria-Plc/35211

BullBearMkt:
...next resistance is @ 35,770 & previous support @31,078
We are still in Elliot Wave 1, Impulse wave 3. Expecting Corrective wave 4 anytime soon

thank you boss really appr8

BullBearMkt:
...next major resistance is @ 31,078 with minor one close to 30K
This is Wave 1 from the Impulse wave; aint seen anything yet

hello my Ogas @bullbearmkt @fxuser

whats is the next major support and resistance for NSE

In addition which part of the wave are we currently (still in one or the corrective two had begun)

wld appr8 ur response

BullBearMkt:
-For couple of days bears and bulls are at loggerheads to dominate the stock
-Because of this, resistance is forcefully formed at 3.5
-A win for the bulls will cause uptrend continuation
-A win for the bear will drive price to visit previous support at 3.25 or less
-Daily and Weekly are bullish
-I love to siddon dey look when Bull and Bear are at war until a winner emerges

Thank you boss appr8 ur response

@bullbearmkt @fxuser

my ogas pls what is the technical saying as per UCAP

robobo:
Morning Chief

i really wish dis move (of leaving up to 40% on the table by Nipco is true, a la as it happens in IHS some moons back)

i nearly plunged yster morning also but called a couple of stockbrokers friends who pointed out the booby trap of April 20th to me.

that is why i sounded caution call

if the April 20th holds then what it means is that they are either comfortable with teh 60% tehy currently hold or they intend to use that to cause stampede (as currently happening) then use d floor to mop up.

but pls note i am not part of the strategy team of Nipco on this so i am only guessing likely cause of action if teh April 20th holds

you might want to do more DD as implored earlier before u take a plunge

nice day ahead

@deruggedprof @UkwuAmu

see punch newspaper monday advert for the MTO stating April 10 (and not April 20 earlier stated by me) as qualifying date

or is there something i am missing?

wld appr8 if u share ur views in light of the attached

thank you

DeRuggedProf:
So if ALL the minority shareholders sold their stocks to new shareholders yesterday the MTO is STUCK?

Morning Chief

i really wish dis move (of leaving up to 40% on the table by Nipco is true, a la as it happens in IHS some moons back)

i nearly plunged yster morning also but called a couple of stockbrokers friends who pointed out the booby trap of April 20th to me.

that is why i sounded caution call

if the April 20th holds then what it means is that they are either comfortable with teh 60% tehy currently hold or they intend to use that to cause stampede (as currently happening) then use d floor to mop up.

but pls note i am not part of the strategy team of Nipco on this so i am only guessing likely cause of action if teh April 20th holds

you might want to do more DD as implored earlier before u take a plunge

nice day ahead

Zhirinovsky:
Bro thanks for sharing this.
What happens if NIPCO ends up not buying my own shares, considering it will be delisted (not sure though.)?
Any set minimum quantity by NIPCO from investors?

druggedprof

kindly exercise caution and check the qualifying date MTO (something like April 20th )

i think that is why it turned form massive bid to offer in just a day

pls reconfirm again b4 u plunge

NSE Index

double MARUBOZO back to back.


hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm i dont think we have seen anything yet.

this tide is lifting all stocks on its way.

the slowing wld only start when the tide start SELECTING which stock to lift

as for now its ALL stock on its way


"" Marubozo patterns are interpreted to mean there is a clear, unwavering sentiment in the market. Bullish/white Marubozos occur when buying momentum persists for the entire trading day and there are not enough sellers to reduce demand. This is unusual, since trading days that see consistent price rises are often finished with a period of selling and locking-in of gains, which a candlestick shows with a small upper shadow. A white Marubozo is considered extremely bullish, signaling an uncommon conviction about the upward movement of a security's price.""



n:b i am a infant on this technical thing just taking cue from the last time Oga Fxuser mention that candle stick type