₦airaland Forum

ibe9ja:
The bulls may resurface next week but they won't last.

BullBearMkt:
...correct. Over 25% of Impulse wave 3 has already been reversed

BullBearMkt:
...sorry, you're wrong. Not yet

fxuser:
Banks
- the big 4 pull back is much different from the non-big 4
- its shows the type of active players in both
- if d penny banks drop below N1 for ex, d support will turn up like winch lol (me included)

BullBearMkt:
MARKET IS DEFINITELY SICK
For couple of weeks NSE ASI has been on a very impressive rally, causing more stocks to create new 52 week high every single day! However, recently, as the market price is rising, momentum is falling. short term breadth indicators (AD line, McClellan Oscillators) are drastically falling. Technically, this indicates that the market is not healthy.

To be healthy, market price and momentum needs to align. Either market price will swallow its pride and go to meet momentum (meaning market pullbacks) or momentum goto meet price on its "mountainous castle" (price continue to rally).

My opinion is that greed (sentiment) will push the market price above 2 year high at around 35,770 before there can be any pullback (if there will be any at all) in coming days.

BullBearMkt:
...sorry, you're wrong. Not yet

BullBearMkt:
...next resistance is @ 35,770 & previous support @31,078
We are still in Elliot Wave 1, Impulse wave 3. Expecting Corrective wave 4 anytime soon

BullBearMkt:
...next resistance is @ 35,770 & previous support @31,078
We are still in Elliot Wave 1, Impulse wave 3. Expecting Corrective wave 4 anytime soon

BullBearMkt:
...next major resistance is @ 31,078 with minor one close to 30K
This is Wave 1 from the Impulse wave; aint seen anything yet

BullBearMkt:
-For couple of days bears and bulls are at loggerheads to dominate the stock
-Because of this, resistance is forcefully formed at 3.5
-A win for the bulls will cause uptrend continuation
-A win for the bear will drive price to visit previous support at 3.25 or less
-Daily and Weekly are bullish
-I love to siddon dey look when Bull and Bear are at war until a winner emerges

robobo:
Morning Chief

i really wish dis move (of leaving up to 40% on the table by Nipco is true, a la as it happens in IHS some moons back)

i nearly plunged yster morning also but called a couple of stockbrokers friends who pointed out the booby trap of April 20th to me.

that is why i sounded caution call

if the April 20th holds then what it means is that they are either comfortable with teh 60% tehy currently hold or they intend to use that to cause stampede (as currently happening) then use d floor to mop up.

but pls note i am not part of the strategy team of Nipco on this so i am only guessing likely cause of action if teh April 20th holds

you might want to do more DD as implored earlier before u take a plunge

nice day ahead

DeRuggedProf:
So if ALL the minority shareholders sold their stocks to new shareholders yesterday the MTO is STUCK?

Zhirinovsky:
Bro thanks for sharing this.
What happens if NIPCO ends up not buying my own shares, considering it will be delisted (not sure though.)?
Any set minimum quantity by NIPCO from investors?

BullBearMkt:
...if this led to pullback, there is no specific duration how long it will last, but we have idea how far the pullback can go. Timing depends on market emotions.

BullBearMkt:
MARKET IS SCREAMING CAUTION!!!
NSE All Share Index starts the week on a bullish tone with the index appreciated by 0.73%. Very encouraging. However, the candlestick formed after the close is called SHOOTING STAR. Technically, this indicate potential price tops and reversal is likely imminent. The market is therefore shouting caution to whosoever want to listen.

Same candlestick pattern is observed this same time last year bull run (black circle), as you can see, there was a "major" pullback in the market.

This doesn't mean the rally cannot continue, but it is a warning to those that follow Technical Analysis.

Cheers

yom2:
ok, is he in charge of d market machines?

yok:
My advise is that we should not allow our profits to turn to a loss. For example on FBN, I was able to get in at NGN3.61 (purchase price including commission and other charges, I pay fairly high commission with my Stockbroker, but this is like 1.73% on the average, this doesn’t worry me as they do a good job by getting me the best prices both in and out), if anything happens and the prices retraces to below 4.70, I will exit halve of my holding with about NGN1.00 per share. I will not allow a profit to turn to a loss.

If there is a retracement, I will buy more shares/look for new purchases as long as there is no breakdown in the supply point/support. A breakdown of the support means, it is time to slow down on new investments.

The above sound interesting and logical. The days of the big losses will be over with this supply and demand point strategy. I will be posting more of this, but may not necessarily be explaining what is supply and demand all the time.

Caution: This is my personal opinion. Use at your own risk. If you need supply/demand point on any stock, you can contact me. I am enjoying this market good time.

lancee:
Highly volatile

BullBearMkt:
...next major resistance is @ 31,078 with minor one close to 30K
This is Wave 1 from the Impulse wave; aint seen anything yet

fxuser:
On days like these , i look at link below:
https://www.globalxfunds.com/funds/nge/

- see csv file
- i randomly track every now and then to see if changes in holdings of nge ETF
- i notice d cash position is up while holdings have been growing umm
- its highly skewed towards nb m gt and zenith m they make up 45% of fund

#JustObserving


Thank you boss

God bless you plenty

Tracking this cld help serve as a very rough gauge of FPI temperature towards NSE in the absence of direct NAFEX volume which cld ve been a better gauge

Willie2015:
Bros, just plan your trade as always preached by BullBear, you wont worry about market noise.

You can always watch the Volume Analysis on your chart. Only volume is the true indicator of price action, no one can manipulate volume.

fxuser:
Emefiele will be smiling
30 billion for account
Oil above 50
Prod > 2m bbl
Devalued via NAFEX without political and public back lash codedly

#WeyDonSir

BullBearMkt:
...kindly see my responses in bold blue fonts

BullBearMkt:
...wait for Daily pullback while the Weekly is still bullish

BullBearMkt:
SHOULD INVESTORS SELL IN MAY AND COME BACK IN SEPTEMBER?
I love analyst backing up their assertions with data or evidences. I have been hearing the popular statement, "sell in May and Come back in September" since I can even remember. Experience they say, is the best teacher. This may be what many investors have witnessed and encountered in the market place.

I have been looking at NSE data recently to determine if this assertion is valid. To a large extent, the statement is valid, but with a little modification. Table below shows NSE winning percentage rates. Between 2002 to 2016, the month of May has the highest winning rate (73%) followed by June at 53% and the least is August having just 27% wins. Selling in May after reaching my investment objectives seem fine, but June is not totally bad either.

That is not the whole story, before the great depression in 2008, sell in May and come back in September did not hold water as virtually all the months won apart from August which was flat. However, after the economic depression in Nigeria, the theory is reasonable; only month of May appreciated by 67% while the remaining 3 months are on losing streak.

What interest me however is in the chart below. The almost similarities between Price & MACD from March 2012 and March 2017 is of interest to me. The arrows on the chart are pointing at the Month of May. Nigeria economy started picking up from 2008 depression in 2010 and GDP was growing before it got to its peak in 2014. Impact of the economy recovery is shown on Investors attitude towards investment on NSE ALL Share Index.

Yesterday, MPC reported a GDP growth rate of -0.52 better than previous 4 quarters. This is an improvement in the economy.

Key Questions
-If the economy is improving, will investors shy away from investment, NSE in particular?
-If the economy is improving, why should I sell my holdings in May again?
-If the economy is improving, do I have to go away until September?
-If the economy is improving, can I get fundamentally sound stocks that are not yet overbought and invest in them for long term?
-If the economy is improving, what do I do with fundamentally sound stocks that are in overbought level?

Presently, the market is flat and seriously looking for a catalyst to either continue its bullishness or drive it down. Will the theory of sell in May and come back in September valid in 2017? Personally, I don't know. But one thing I know is that with improving economy, there will be opportunities in the Market to tap into in June through August.

NB: Winning Percentage is the ratio of the number of year stocks appreciated/gained to the total number of years considered

fxuser:
Not sure how shallow or deep but for stocks in an uptrend (where SP >major trend lines, Eg: big 4 banks)
We expect to see prices make higher lows after d recent rally to higher highs (HH) and then continue since nothing moves in straight line

fxuser:
bears finally taking their turn
#Pullback season

BullBearMkt:
...Smart man!!!
If it was wave 1, then comes wave 2 before the "biggi" you're waiting for...let's take a look