₦airaland Forum

Naijadr:
@RoughCut, oga so I'm sticking with COSTAIN long term, looks a lot more lucrative more long term, or even in the next 12mths. What do u think? Fundamentals are great, and I think they can meet up what was speculated in their prospectus.
That it unless it goes mad and jumps to something crazy like N80 or something by June

I'm sure anyone who has been following the stock agrees medium-long term it is the Real McCoy. If there are signals that peeps are taking profit in the short-term by all means join the party and do a partial CICO/RO-RO.

Going forward it would make anybody's portfolio medium-long term it has made mine.

I read the PO brochure again and i was impressed with the projections for '08 and 09 very bullish indeed so hopefully they get there!

If you want to take profit i'm planning to by the way _{now that will be blood money!}go on soun but it has just made my long-term protfolio. Even for long-term portfolio you can take profit every now and then just get back in again that's how to play the game so either bullish or bearish you can sleep soundly even if you like addd valium to your milk_{excuse the pun dollypcute}

Do you need me to add CAVEAT EMPTY/EMPTRESS/EMPTOR


@All

BTW: Any Formula 1 car racing fan in the house?

pumping777:
---------
You have to be careful with Costain so it does not do you an Oceanic.

Shares to be listed for the PO qualify for any bonus and dividends declared for FY March 2008.

This suggests that the PO shares must be listed before the FY results or at least before the closure of the register.

---------

I believe that scarcity is what is driving the price of Costain right now. BTW, what result are you expecting from Costain this March that will justify the current price bearing in mind the outstanding shares that will be listed from the PO?

In the prospectus it is already stated that over 1B shares will be outstanding by FY March, 2008 and they are projecting a PAT of N0.514B. Based on the current price the forward PE is already over 100.

Of course by 2009, based on the project that PAT will multiply 3x this is still okay long term. However, short term, I think it will be necessary to take profit and soon.

I think it will be suicidal for them to declare a bonus if the PO shares are to be listed before FY!

Dont forget they still have the proceeds from the PO which obviously they will capitalize so that will not do their balance sheet any harm at all and they can afford to give dividend which hopefully will help to sustain the share price at least till when they declare FY results.

Hopefully they will put the proceeds from the offer to work after the fiscal year and we would know what impact it will make to the bottom-line. Profit taking i expect in the short-term but going forward its looking good in the medium-long term

That's my prognosis sha like the medics would say

blueband:
ABC had an accident today.I doubt if it will be able to continue it's journey to Maiduguri until sometime next week.Profit takers have set in.

Accident ke? if he get accident na im be say journey don finish be dat. The bus just dey take opportunity load more passengers

easimoni:
Barge,
donde téngale estado?Bid means there are more buyers than sellers; the price is likely to go up. AKA "net bid"
THe opposite is to be on "offer" or "net offer". NO such thing as "on sell"

The Guru Emeritus hope  u dey enjoy your semi-retirement

Naijadr:
cashcraft and gti have same prices
The trend continues, COSTAIN closed at N44
NIG-German closed at N31.59, another high, its on the move, could be enough gas to take it to N40
Dunlop continues the rise closing at N5.86, with a high of N6.07, looking to hit N6 by friday

There's no stopping Costain!

Dont forget FY is March so we expect results around May or thereabouts so its safe to assume that the PO shares would not be listed for FY results so they have room to give dividend if they so desire. Not sure about bonus_{that would not be a good idea considering they have just done a PO}

Costain will comfortably and without breaking sweat break the N50-mark by March/April

Go on soun

[quote author=invisible! link=topic=31554.msg2004810#msg2004810 date=1204204897]Naija is moving forward na! All the roads around where I live are under reconstruction, all new roads, lets start from there first.[/quote]Let me know when they finish the reconstruction. Nowadays i travel in my  Gulfstream so my feet never touch ground yet

BTW:
Peeps have started moving SKYEBANK even the stock still dey on TS. When TS is lifted na race to the north-pole!

SKYE SHELTER is flying at a super-sonic speed trying to catch up with my Gulfstream

[quote author=Mr. Risky link=topic=31554.msg2004802#msg2004802 date=1204204813]@Roughcut, This looks like '1ST quarter pricelist" for today [/quote]And this one na 2ND Quarter

http://www.gticapitalltd.com/showprice.php

loma:
We need to get some Superdelegates to broker which is the right results from the floor.

Sharpish

BTW:

Anybody who needs to get in touch with Oceanic registrars you can ring them on 01-815 2470 or 01-813 8623. Try the second number first. The bloke i spoke with was quite helpful and he actually gave me his mob number but dont think its a good idea to post here.

He actually advised me  to come back to naija that naija is moving forward. As if i needed to be told

And to complicate matters further here is another one from cashcraft.com

http://www.cashcraft.com/pricelistprint.asp

afamako:
@Roughcut

I can't lay my hands on the full prospectus anymore but I did not realise the 1.5b from csl is over 3 years.

I no fit complain too much sha as I bought 650bags in Jan'07 at an average of 6 and 200bags at PO price. Sold 350bags at 19 to recover my costs and rest I dey ride for free.

You have more than recovered your costs!

afamako:
@Roughcut on FCMB

Their prospectus said part of the money raised would be used to acquire csl stockbrockers which will deliver 1.5b FYE. There was another 1.5b from another source which I can't remember now. If you add this 3b to the expected 12b from the banks PAT, they appear on course to meet the projection.

I also heard from the grapevine that they used/are using their GDR money on some juicy turnaround deals that will even add to the bottomline.

We shall see at FYE.

Looks like you have only some of the facts and not the complete picture!

I would refer you to the post by me sometime last year i had a very long discussion about this with wanaj0 and you can read it here

https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria?topic=31554.msg1661253#msg1661253

The facts from that post are that FCMB will be spending N12.5B  to acquire CSL that represents about 17% of the proceeds from the PO. The fact again is CSL is expected to generate N1.5B by 2010 which i think is what you made reference to and that represents about 5% of the attributable income to FCMB. The issue i had with the transaction was that FCMB did not need to spend N12.5B on CSL they only need to capitalize it to the tune of N1B to satisfy regulatory requirements

CSL on its own i estimated the netweorth of at around N275M and annualized PAT at around N925M. By the way this was from a report compiled  by another fund manager based in  UK.

So as far as i'm concerned that deal does not make sense financially so that's what put me off that stock and that is not saying FCMB is not a good company to invest in.
Sometimes you need to look under the bonnet so you have all the facts at hands before making your investment decision.

I can tell you now you are not going to see anything spectacular FYE!

Although i know  that Otunba Subomi owns CSL and is the founder of FCMB and Ladi is his son and the MD/CEO of FCMB but you need to separate sentiments from

hard-nosed business decisions sometimes!

*deleted*

loma:
Wth Love to FO2 from WindyWendy!

I sabi that lady from Wendy's Burger_{dont eat junk food anymore though!}

wanaj0:
Well, before you sing the praise of Beta Glass check their previous figures (like 3 -4 years)  and you will see that the current PAT is lower than that!!! there market is shrinking but currently good enough to own.


yes they gave a 1 for 10!!! that no dey show for my spreadsheet. Look NAHCO na their mate wey giove bonus 3 for 2!!!! First bank   1 for 1, WAPCo 1 for 1, 1 for 2, UNIC did 3 for 1 self and now you dey talk abou 1 for 10!!!



Enron had Arthur Andersen and that did not stop them from behaving like cowboys!!!!

Haba! marshall wanaj0 all those companies wey you mention dey for totally different sectors now!

And of course we know what happened Arthur Andersen!

Infact when the Enron scandal broke PWC the largest management consultancy in the world dropped 140 clients who happened to be some of their most profitable  so that what happened to Arthur Andersen will not happen to them

Any professional services organisation will not get involved in any corporate shenanigans now for sure

donilors:
@All

just got this from proshare

FCMB PLC UNAUDITED Q3 RESULT FOR THE PERIOD ENDED 31 JANUARY 2008


2007    2006   CHANGE     % CHANGE
N'b N'b N'b %

GROSS EARNINGS
35.861  17.543  18.318 104.42

PBT
11.244  4.431  6.813 153.76

TAXATION
2.248  -0.886  -1.362 -153.72

PAT
8.995 3.545  5.450 153.74

They made a projection of N15B for FY '07 in their offer prospectus so is it possible that they  make ~N7B in the next 3 months?. Something tells me not i thought the projection in the prospectus was way too aggressive.

lawalidowu:
@ AKTOPGUN

WHAT R D CANDLES SAYING ABOUT FATHEROF2

Aktopcandle will have to locate FO2 first

[quote author=Mr. Risky link=topic=31554.msg2001951#msg2001951 date=1204130322]Pumping777, more seriously, THE NAFDAC threat to Beta Glass biz, what do you have to say.  I thought I overheard NAFDAC saying they will be doing away with bottled drinks etc etc etc.  Don't have details, even WANAJO has mentioned it briefly in passing some time ago.  Hence I seem scared of BETA GLASS in the long term, otherwise, they have become nothing recently but VERY PROFITABLE.  118% PAT as per their 3rd quarter result for me is impressive.[/quote]That is to tell you that all the talk and no action have not made a dent in  BetaGlass profit margin. I remember wanaj0 mentioned this issue some months ago not sure where NAFDAC is going with this one.

pumping777:
Wonderful plan. I sent out an order today to sell off all the "penny" stocks with wacky fundamentals. Fear don dey catch me. I don't want to be caught when things go sour. Now these stocks are still hot cake and there is no shortage of buyers. They have served me well already.

If you are looking for safety which is safer than UBA?  I won't go there sha. Not now anyway.

Dangote Sugar, Flour Mills, Beta Glass and Ikeja Hotels catch my fancy at the moment due to strong fundamentals.

I suspect that there is already an insider scoup on AG Leventis regarding the full year results. Of course OandO is a good candidate if you have a superman or superwoman broker.

The way I see it, we will soon run out of "penny" stocks on the exchange since most are doing 5% daily and will soon cross the N10 mark. By the time that bubble bursts folks will be looking for fairly priced stocks. I guess many bank stocks will also benefit from this.

In insurance, I believe Aiico will present a very good opportunity if the bleeding can be sustained. A lot of resistance though.

Does anyone know if International Energy Insurance has plans for a PO?

CAVEAT EMPTY PATAPATA.

I will add Costain to that list. As at last year before it went on TS it was one of the top 3 on the NSE in terms of fundamentals so that company will make anybody's list anyday. Even better now with the funds they have got and hopefully results to match

In the Insurance space i will add UNIC and LASACO. I agree with you that AIICO has to shed some more blood like i said before that one get loooooong MOT o!

I'm not adding CAVEAT EMPTY/ EMPTOR/ EMPTRESS because these are safe-havens_{excuse the pun madam wendy!} for the long journey ahead

And of course Oand O if you have an 'agbero' broker hmnnnnn _{SKYE REIT will go into my list but the volumes are too thin for now only 20M}

windywendy:
But why are you worried about corporate governance? I happen to know that Tinubu, Boyo and co don't take that corporate governance thing for granted. They hired some peeps I know from a consulting firm called mckinsey to do a lot of re-design and controls strenghtening stuff for them recently. Abi am I confusing them with something else?

Mckinsey is American and one of the top management consulting outfits in the whole wide world. Guys like that dont come cheap i tell you for a fact so if Tinubu and Co have hired their services they must be pretty serious about corporate governance. They are probably paying the consultant £1000+ a day. That is not yam!

wanaj0:
Not on my shopping list. Yes mortgage sector is good but the margin is small and the gestation period is too long for the Nigerian environment. Solid company but does not fit my investment plan. Left only 5,000 units there to enable me get annual reports and monitor the company.

UAC properties is not in the mortgage sector  i think its only Union Homes that is listed in that sector. UAC properties is into property develoment and maintenance. And if i'm correct UAC owns 1004 in V.I which they bought for about N7B some few years ago.

The mortgage sector is maturing and as more coys get listed in that sector things should stabilize and going forward  as we see their plans for the medium and long-term they should be safe-havens for long-term investing.

aktopgun:
omo i tire for this NSE o! crusader that is on TS is 4th most traded stock today. it didnt even get anywhere near that when it was open for business. makes me think some people know something or is it just a case of hoping the price rises post TS? hmmmm . either way, i gethand luggage for this one

Universal insurance is highest traded for 2nd straight day. with 16b shares listed? what is it with the company that is pushing these high volumes? its definitely not profit because they haven't even had time to perform yet let alone have a track record that can be analysed.

The question is who are those buying? For starters Universal insurance will have to do a share reconstruction and/or IPO as soon as possible so it is in their own interest to bid up the price beforehand and it looks like someone or some peeps are doing just that

NSE we hail thee!

aktopgun:
This should be interesting to crusader's bottomline: its from Nigeriansecuritites.com

The new drive by insurance companies to expand their sources of revenue to cope with challenges of meeting the needs of their teeming shareholders, no doubt, is helping these firms explore untapped opportunities in the financial services market.


[b]Crusader Insurance Plc which already has investment in life and non- life arrears of insurance, pension and real estate states that it will before the end of the year conclude acquisition of two investment banking outfits.

As it happens Crusader is on TS

@Aktopgun
As we don blow the cover now make we dey watch wetin go happen now

aktopgun:
. no u don't need to.

UNHomes has shed some weight and it seems to be stabilizing around N9. the patterns are inconclusive as far as the candles go and all the others are trending into negative territory. i think i calculated a PE of 42 for them actually and an eps of 0.21.
i want to get into the mortgage sector and since they are the longest there now that i think skyreit is added there(need to confirm this though) ,i was looking at unhomes. they are in the black in terms of profit and are in a growing sector.
they are coming out with a P.O to raise 20b in the next financial year and You KNOW HOW I FEEL ABOUT P.Os

i just wonder if they might be good for the longer term.

If it drops some more why not if not? Funny you mentioned SKYE REIT well they listed 20 million units or is it shares yesterday so that will be very illiquid. Each unit is selling for N105 they are actually planning to raise another N3B they have already raised N2B so will like to know how the price pans out. Interesting that one.

I found loads of other mutual funds listed in the same sector as Deap Capital its hard keeping up with all these companies being listed on a daily basis. by the way Deap Capital might be going on TS in the not-too distant future and they are floating a PP for a mortgage outfit can't remember the name now.

A lot of interesting developments in the mortgage and real-estate sectors

Happy days are here.

The only stocks i have in my long-term portfolio are the top 6 banks and everything else is short-term RO-RO _{Costain might join the long-termers in my portfolio though hmnnnnnn}

aktopgun:
@roughcut


in the mean time i am naira heavy now, looking for where to put it. watching one stock mentioned here many times already thats on a down turn. trying to time the entry. its fundamentally good of course or i wouldnt even look at it.

by the way, i was assessing Union homes fundamentally and it has a PE of about 48 based on the 3Q results released earlier this month. Anything different on your side regarding them?

There's also

[list]
[li]ADSWITCH
[/li]
[li]AIRSERVICES
[/li]
[li]ABC TRANSPORT [/li]

[/list]




_{wonder why all of them started with an 'A'}.

They have been mentioned severally and jointly to borrow the language of my learned colleagues on this forum. They need  to be available  first and shed some more!

aktopgun:
@roughcut

i hope your broker managed to sell your cutix. i sold 40% of my holdings there at close to 70% profit after charges. still expect something from them in terms of price movement so i will be watching


by the way, i was assessing Union homes fundamentally and it has a PE of about 48 based on the 3Q results released earlier this month. Anything different on your side regarding them?

I did a full CICO on that one! Capital +Profit stashed somewhere. I'm looking for LASACO but nothing yet and waiting for AIICO to spill a bit more blood_{i'm not a blound hound o!}.

On union homes a PE of 48 is a bit high though i remember peeps mentioned  this a while ago and i think the train might have left the station so not sure if your broker is an 'agbero' who can catch a moving train or is it bus? without sustaining injuries

I'm on the lookout for NSL and the price is coming within striking range i think its being marked down for bonus so a bit more before i strike

At least for you i no need to add CAVEAT EMPTY

aktopgun:
[b]Crusader Insurance Plc which already has investment in life and non- life arrears of insurance, pension and real estate states that it will before the end of the year conclude acquisition of two investment banking outfits.

That's one of the reasons its going on TS soon to source for funds to acquire the investment banking businesses. Sound business model though in addition to the local oil and contents policy insurance companies are going somewhere.

They first have to clear all the cobwebs that are clouding the business landscape first!

Genuine:
In that thread, 2nd post, he said he'd update the NNSE.xls file regularly and post it to megaupload for people like me, but he hasnt updated it since the 2nd of Jan or 1st of Feb.
I only need to know how to generate that excel file and i will start doing it myself.

Well not sure what post or thread you have been reading but if you look at this post https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-103844.0.html#msg1994522

He has generated two excel files. There's a link to the CSV format in excel for closing prices for the last 2 years i think and there's a zipped file which he's attached that contains the CSV format for cloisng prices from Jan 2008 up till 25.02.08 so not sure what thread you made reference to.

Look through the link i just posted and you should find the info

Genuine:
@AKTOPGUN, WANAJO, EASIMONI, WINDYWENDY, ROUGHCUT, PUMPING777, FATHEROF2, AND THE REST!

Can someone not tell me how to get that file NNSE updated for Aptistock?

Read this thread on TA and Aptistock by our very own easimoni https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-103844.0.html#msg1995381

He is now Guru Emeritus on Stock Market Tips for Nigerians. He's done a fantastic job and i dont think this thread will be what it is without him.

Just my own little tribute to the Grand Master. The boy done well.

wanaj0:
DSR was offered at a discount but the flour was done at a premium.

Which was the reason a lot of peeps did not touch it in the first place. I remember on this forum we agreed that the offer price should not have been more than N10 but as you and i know fundamentals do not count on the NSE anymore at least in the short-term!

And i think that was one of the reasons for the delay in approving the IPO by SEC and NSE

wanaj0:
dangote Flour rode on that hype.

You are right that's one of his motivation for floating Dangote Flour. I hope he doesnt start the quarterly dividend nonsense with this one!

wanaj0:
There was returned money for DSR above 50,000 (or 100,000 units) I think. dangote Flour rode on that hype.

That must be 100K + units  i know quite a few peeps who got 50K