₦airaland Forum

wanaj0:
Your bad belle for Access serious OOOO. Do your calculations well and you will see that you have made a LOT of money from ACCESS. (never really likes Access).

As to it not going anywhere, what do you expect? Where has First Bank gone since its PO? Let's wait and see where Fidelity and co will co. The liquidity that drove the market in the first half of the year is no longer there. PFA funds are also not available. That's why you are seeing a slow down. Times like this presents opportunity to go for fairly/undervalued stocks.

I'm just waiting for the thing to drag itself over the N20 mark  then i can start 'cleaning' my portfolio i have dumped first bank so i think the time has come for ACCESS to go the way of UBN

wanaj0:
Your bad belle for Access serious OOOO. Do your calculations well and you will see that you have made a LOT of money from ACCESS. (never really likes Access).

As to it not going anywhere, what do you expect? Where has First Bank gone since its PO? Let's wait and see where Fidelity and co will co. The liquidity that drove the market in the first half of the year is no longer there. PFA funds are also not available. That's why you are seeing a slow down. Times like this presents opportunity to go for fairly/undervalued stocks.

Na true true  you talk my brother i have made a lot of money on this stock  since 04 from N1.65 but somehow i don't think its the fundamentals that's driven  the share price to where it is today. The funny thing  its my first stock on the NSE and its the single largest  holding in my portfolio may be that's why i'm getting frustrated with them

First bank is the big elephant in the equation i have decided to ignore not my cup of tea

bankymi:
wanajo,
Thanks wanajo for buttressing that point for me.
The truth is share reconstruction was good for access bank as it was for bank BHP.I'm not saying SR will always be good.But i don't believe it will always be bad.

Doesnt look like ACCESS is going anywhere at the minute

I stand corrected

bankymi:
Roughcut,
I will say you are very wrong on this one.That share reconstruction is ALWAYS a bad move is very incorrect.It was after access bank did their SR that they started to record appreciable raise in their share price,based on more profit of course.fidelity bank is now planning to take a step access took one year ago and im very sure that would be good for them.beside that,the bank phb that you have rightly identified to be a very good one also did 3-1(access was only 2-1) share reconstruction back in december 2006.And it was after that that their share price began to surge.

Correct me if i'm wrong this share reconstruction for bank PHB is not technically a reverse split there was a merger between habib bank and Platinum and they exchanged the shares between the two banks' shareholders in the ratio you mentioned and that's how bank PHB came to be. Check again there was no share recosntruction.

ACCESS did a share reconstruction 2 for 1(may be as a result of the banks they acquired) by doubling the price and reducing in half the shares outstanding so that way the shareholders do not see a reduction in the value of their holding this is is no way comparable to the situation with habib and platinum

pumping777:
More to sell but at a lower price. If the price does not rally after the mark down for bonus and dividends you will lose out. FBN was a good example.

I think they will mark down the price by the amount of dividend they are paying which is N1.00 so if you have made more 100% on the stock since the PO then i'm sure you can afford to live with selling your holding including your bonus less the dividend afterall the dividend is going in your pocket by the way

So nothing lost

krisbobo:
@easimoni et al

Thanks for you advice; I appreciate o.

Will sell the UBN tomorrow and buy Crusader.

Thanks everone.

Make sure you receive confirmation of your bonus b4 you sell so that way you have more to sell and of course your dividend. Did the same in anger

adeyinkat:
@ All


Just wait for me, I'll be a multi-millionaire (even in Soludo naira) at this rate.

Gurus, you too much!

You mean the Naira with two decimals to the left

adeyinkat:
@ All

Hi everyone. Please am I the only one that has seen that Japaul have doubled their half year PAT in the 9 months report? Boy, I think I have hit a goldmine here, now the FY forecast in the PO prospectus suddenly seems like bread!

Even if the certs take a while to get to us PO grabbers, the coy has shown that it can out perform forecasts. You guys are turning me to a guru in this matter o! And to think I'm also smiling broadly as l watch WEMA too.

Just wait for me, I'll be a multi-millionaire (even in Soludo naira) at this rate.

Gurus, you too much!

Looks like you scored a home run there. you can expect the share price to rally when the TS is lifted based on impressive performance if the rally will continue when certs are released is another matter

shakasha:
Thanks aktopgun for your fast response but don't u think Fidelity will be much higher than it's current secondary market value by the time certificates are out or allotment is concluded? This is considering the upward trend in other banks' share prices. Sentiments though! Do you suspect reconstruction of shares post offer??

I hope you are not relying on share reconstruction to jerk up the share price. Its always been a bad move look at ACCESS the price has not left the N19 mark since lifting TS and its going to dip when share certs are sent out because a lot of peeps would like to sell to realise the profits from the PO

itchy fingers!

easimoni:
Not yet, my broker wants to see the Wema proceeds before buying anything. Ikeja Hotel dropped the 5% again today. Peeps are still selling big-time. Regardless of tomorrow's direction. I'm buying starting monday.
My own piece was only a fraction of the volumes being moved  . Besides, I only sold 1/2 of my Wema. Trying to squeeze some more gains with the other 1/2.

I'm shifting about half of my WEMA but a bit confused when to shift the other half i'm tempted to think that the price would rally near the N18 mark after TS and that way i can press the GO button. If this scenario is realistic i guess i have the patience to wait for   the post TS rally but then this is a gamble though.

Anyway if you have bought WEMA i suppose you couldnt have taken a  bigger gamble or should i quit while i'm ahead or is it  leave the stage when the ovation is loudest i have this sneaky feeling the ovation is somehow going to get louder!

pumping777:
I suspect you drove down the price when you hit the market .

Seriously the temporary drop in price portends a bad sign but my real worry is the TS. Many investors are selling because they don't want to be caught by TS.

easimoni if na play make you stop am o

A lot peeps are buying because they think  there will be a post TS rally so i'm hedging my bet both ways

pumping777:
The movement of Wema's price after TS will depend on the price when it goes on TS. If Wema goes into TS at N13 I will expect a rally after suspension is lifted as long as the bank can maintain potential PAT of at least 10B and the books are clean.

That is what i think would happen i'm totally with you on this one. They have spent a large chunk of their earnings 'cleaning' their books so dont expect them to mention the dreaded goodwill or is it risky assets (another fancy word for  bad and non-performing loans) in their annual reports.  Peeps have succeeded in mixing up  these two items.  

Shout out to any accountant in the house to enlighten me on the difference between the two so when next i see that on any annual report i know exactly where to stick it _{in the wotsit}

pumping777:
The reason I call it a downgrade is that they had a projected PAT of around 10B listed there just 2 days ago

I would say they are being conservative

easimoni:
But the average price was N12.71. Some people bought/sold at less than the full 5% increase (I hope that was not my broker ); it's the first sign that the momentum might be waning.

Well lets say i dont see it opening at less than N12.88 tomorrow!

Geebaba:
« #4279 on: Today at 11:14:35 AM »  

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hi everyone, respects to all the gurus in the hse,shigidi, roughcut, easimoni,gees, temmie et al, u guys av been doing a great job
can anyone give a light into the supposed merger of sterling and ecobank, what effects will it have on their share value.
i av some sterling shares, just to know what to do now that they av been placed on technical suspension



guys some shld comment on my request now,shigidi, roughcut, easimoni,gees, temmie et al

It will be a bit premature to start commenting on the implications of this merger  or is it acquisition without the memorandum of understanding (MOU) in the public domain. Not even sure if it is a merger or an acqusition  think its a merger though if that is the case the shares most likely of both banks will be cancelled and  new ones  issued in the name of the new entity  to shareholders of both companies based on existing shareholding and that's why the shares of both companies have been placed on TS.

So don't think any significant changes will happen there except that you are now a shareholder in enlarged entity.

If its an acquisition the acquiring partner is compelled to buy the shares of the acquired company(at least 51%) at the market rate or if they  they are feeling generous or if the board of the smaller entity can play hardball buy the shares at a premium or exchange one share for so many of the smaller company if they are not willing to splash out cash and  the acquired company ceases to exist as an entity.  Standard bank of SA(bigger than all the banks on the NSE combined) acquired IBTC(majority shareholding) through stanbic its subsidiary in Nigeria.

Well is Ecobank not a subsidiary of ETI? and ETI is a very big bank  on the west african coast well, things may change in which case the there may be a material effect on the share price of sterling bank

Like i said i don't know the details i have only tried to paint the scenarios that may unfold i don't have the facts of this particular arrangement

WEMA closed at N12.88 another 5% upside 246M shares in transaction worth N3.1B

@Temmie10

I think Mr Olofintila the director of corporate affairs did mention that WEMA is looking for a strategic partnership with offshore investors for capital injection in the form of equity/debt and raising funds from the capital market in te forthcoming PO is one of the strategies they are looking at. So to butress your point i dont think increasing their capital base will involve issuing an astronomical number of shares

@wanaj0
Yeah i have done that quite alright that's why i will be offloading some of my holdings and if needs be some more by the time the TS is lifted

FCMB to me have not  made a good investment as far as acquiring CSL stockbrokers is concerned we know why they have splashed out big time  by the way. If they wanted to satisfy the regulatory requirements they only need to capitalize CSL to the tune N1B and not 12B(if CSL has not already attained the requisite capital base) 

If  you havent read my post regarding this investment i have kindly rehashed it for you so you know why i think its not a good move

From the report i read FCMB is shelling out $100M(N12.5B) to acquire and capitalize CSL(they only need to capitalize it to the tune of N1B) and a little bit more for working capital. This is a company that is projected to generate $13.5M(N1.6B) in 2010 representing a paltry 5% of the attributable income to the FCMB group. The question i ask is why are you spending N12.5B for a company that is expected to contribute only 5% to the bottomline in two years' time?

The net worth of CSL is estimated at $2.2M(N275M) and correct me if i'm wrong net worth is the difference between assets and current+long-term  libilities(sorry i'm not an accountant) and the annualized PAT for 2007  is estimated at $7.4M(N925M) so if they are projecting an income of  N1.6B in 2010 in effect they expect to grow earnings by only 700M in the intervening 2 years

For a company that is going to generate N1.6B in 2010 spending N12.5B that is about 17% of the amount they are raking in from the PO  in 2007 does not sit with me as a good investment and  of course this is not in the prospectus. Looks like they got their priorities wrong there

Union bank is almost a waste of space for a bank of their size and Diamond is good  and so also is  bank PHB i think i have found a replacement for FCMB in those 2 banks (i'm becoming fatigued by these banks IPO/PO's)
I think we are singing from the same hymn book as per looking for the next golden hen or is it the goose?

@All

I'm already  on the prowl for the next big thing for 2008 so please let me/us know if there is anything out there yet to be unmasked

Temmie10:
Japaul's result was very good.
They are on course to meet their projections easily at this rate.

@ Roughcut
Wema bank's turnover for this current year will be close to 40 billion naira (even without po).
People underestimate the potential of this bank.

There is serious potential there! This is a winning horse so i'm expecting this one to clean up

Temmie10:
The po buyers will most likely not partake of march 2008 earnings which suggests better things for current holders.
At that rate, wema could come up with a PAT very similar to diamond's.
To me, def an option. Its the cheapest bank out there currently.

Looks like you are reading my mind pls see my post.

wanaj0:
Dunlop is set for a turn around. At below 3.00 (2.50), is a good price to enter. I expect them to declare a loss of full year 2007 but enter to profit hence forth. By then they should have paid back and restructure the balance of loan used to finance the new radial tyre plant.

UNIC, cleaned its books some two years ago. Owned mainaly by ernest Shonekan. Don't think they have any management problem. To concentrate on life insurance. They planned spinning off their non-life insurance. Major player in health insurance. Also involved in Critical Rescue. Building a club at VGC. I think they are well positioned.

BAGCO, waiting for the prospectus. But I am in love with the company. As per the litigation, nothing special based on the opinions of their lawyers. Good thing that it was disclosed. When I see the prospectus, will be able to say whether it s BUY.

Don't buy Union Bank. This is the time to sell. UBN is a sleeping giant that may eventually die if care is not taken! Union is one of the WORST bank out there. WHy anyone will buy Union Bnak is beyond me!

For me, DIAMOND is the gem. Just watching it closely. Bought at 5.50 Nov 2006. Sold at 20.20 in May 2007. Buying again now at 17.50. I expect it to be in the 25.00 - 30.00 range by June next year at the least. Anyone intesreted in joining me

On WEMA, if you are in by the technical suspension is placed, then you will wait for a long time. They will have to issue a lot of shares to be able to compete. Nothing less than 5bn shares which is still small!!!! Don't expect the rally after the lifting of technical suspension. Check out what happened to Access bank. Note also that money from the PO will likely not add to the March 2008 FY result. So, to me, not an option. Bought at 3.50 at the begining of the year so I can say THANK YOU LORD!!!!!!!

Capital oil is a small company that has cornered the petroleum distribution in the south eastern part of the country. Unlike Lagos where the major marketers hold sway, the independent marketers are in control in other places especially the south eastern part. Did not get the stock to buy at 48k some months ago. Not a stock to hold on for long. But based on activity on the ground, they are doing well.

To say Union bank is underperforming would be an understatement as disappointing as it is i bought the stock <N20 in 05 and i think its now N42 so i think its run its course i would take the dividends and the bonus issue and offload kia kia(thank you very much!) i think its a bit far fetched to suggest that Union bank will be goobled up by another bank don't forget that regardless of what anybody may say Union is one of the most capitalized banks on the NSE unless you are talking of a foreign take-over and you can bet CBN hasnt got the stomach for that now. So the Union bank brand will be with us for a long time to come

If you still have WEMA by the time they go on TS no problems as i'm writing WEMA opened at N12.27 so i'm expecting the usual 5% upside and close in the N12.88 territory. I have not factored  in the proceeds from the PO(because nobody knows what it is) into the FY 2008 results no need because i  think they would have finalized their full year results before they start thinking of what to do with the proceeds from the PO that is yet to see the light of day.

I expect a PAT of N10B by YEnd and even at conservative N8B PAT that  gives me a forward  PE of 15.62 compare that with the sectoral average of 25.56(nigeriansecurities.com) and i arrive at a fair value of at least N20
You can sell now if you have WEMA and i believe their would be a post-suspension bull run why? by the time they finish the allotment for the PO they would have released the full-year results we expect  and that will only send the price in one direction

They would have crystallised  their intention in the prospectus for the PO and hopefully if they make the right noises that can only add an upside to the stock. Frankly i don't think there is any basis for comparing ACCESS with WEMA. the share price was for ACCESS was jerked up because they did a share reconstruction the share price for WEMA is moving up because of their performance and the efforts they have made to 'clean' their books and don't forget that any monies realised from the present debt recovery  strategy will go towards the bottomline and if i'm correct they have recovered about N6B already so there is no reason to doubt the continued success of this hard-ball strategy they have decided to adopt.

In summing up i believe  there is both intrisic and extrinsic value in WEMA either way if you sell now or hold on for the post-suspension bull run it's a win-win situation
I bought the stock less than N6 so i will offload some between now and next week and the rest after the PO and i'm using the proceeds to buy into the PO so i cannot complain

I will put Diamond up there with bank PHB there's not much to choose between them this is actually creating some sort of dilemma for me but i suppose the prospectus will sort that out

@jehoshaphat

I beg you too much if nothing else at least for your parables  you are the real McCoy. Keep it coming and may the fountain of your wisdom not run dry!

I think you asked the question about Mbenefits and Abbey Mortgage. Mbenefits is taking up an equity stake of 20%(and some other offshore investors lined up) and Abbey Mortgage will be listed on the NSE this month. It did a private placement when it raised about N1B and they are also planning to come to the market for their IPO where they hope to increase their share capital to N20B

All this stuff is already somewhere buried in one of my earlier posts but for you sha i don't mind rehashing it

Your parables are awesome!

@pumping777

The projected PAT of N8B for WEMA by nigeriansecurities.com is not actually a downgrade its a conservative projection personally  on an annualised basis i put them down for a PAT ~N10B for the full year

The forward PE is 15.62 and EPS=0.79 and compared with the sector average PE ratio of 25.56  i put the fair value of the stock at around N20

So going forward if the PO comes out around N8(doubt it very much!) and it goes on TS between now and next week let's just say i have hit GOLD_{trying to compose myself} and easimoni has hit DIAMOND!

And i dare say this if it goes on TS you will struggle to buy on the floor and what do you think will happen when it comes off TS and you already have the stock just before they start releasing the certs? Well your guess is as good as mine

easimoni:
M Benefits did nothing wrong; Unic's interim results is too good to ignore. My ranking is based solely on forward PE.

I beg read this ----->http://businessdayonline.com/National/991.html and what say thou?

shigidi:
completely agree with you. but don't forget may and baker as well as the insurance coys.

oh yes i'm not letting the ins coys slip out of my hands next year especially easimoni's top 3!

easimoni:
Only last week, I mentioned Dunlop as one of my sleeper picks for 2008. I hope the completion of the plant or rumours of a technical partner won't compel people to bid up the price before I'm ready. Dunlop incured bigger losses in FY 2006 and 1Q07 than what was in the prospectus. Maybe because the plant was 10+% over budget. I suspect they may already be coming out of the red and someone knows this and it buying up. _{We may be witnessing another Costain in the making}. With the oversubscription in the PO, they would have to deliver some spectacular results to support~N3 so I'm not fully convinced yet.

One of my dark horses for  08 is C&I leasing i have so much faith in the stock and if i can get Transnationwide express_{Mypeace where are thou?}.

tonyjon:
@ Rob-Roy,

I hope Transcorp will not give their fans heart attack with all these their problems. I still cannot figure it out where they will get #14 b. to pay if they appeal and lose. I think we should continue to pray so that God will turn around the captivity of Transcorp and convert it to gain.

Peace.

Bro i think you will need to start praying if you own the stock. If they take a hit of N14B that would be difficult to recover from

easimoni:
Wema is still the king until TS hits. Aside from that, Diamond, Access and GTBank in that order. Among those doing POs, FCMB and maybe Bank PHB.

Yeah i would pitch my tent with you on WEMA but for the banks doing PO i would reverse the order  bank PHB and FCMB

ACCESS not too sure i have had the damn thing since 2004 and their complex capital structure does not give me confidence in the short -term_{well seems like a lifetime now}. GTB hmmmnnnnnnn, being stagnant since they did the GDR some months back and i would put Diamond up there with bank PHB

RoughCut:
Yaa i remember talking about this stock on this or the other thread a while a go i think in my estimation its a bit late now to enter the fray.The share price jumped from  N5 to N23 sometime in  May and now it's about N8 so not sure  if there's any more room to manoeuvre

See this -->https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria?topic=52566.msg1578447#msg1578447

aktopgun:
NO NO NO ENOUGH SAID. I GET THE PICTURE

BUT BANK PHB ARE ON SUSPENSION ARENT THEY? DO You MEAN BUY THE PO WHEN IT COMES OUT?

HOW DO You FEEL ABOUT ACCESS BANK THOUGH?

Yep out in a few weeks if not days. You can take the risk and buy on the floor N25 i'm looking at N35-40 in 6-12 months
So the call is yours to make

aktopgun:
SO You GET UR INFO BY WORD OF MOUTH OR You HAVE ACCESS TO ANNUAL REPORTS(DO You BELIEVE THE FIGURES IN THESES?) ?

BY THE WAY, I THINK ACCESS BANK LOOKS ATTRACTIVE WHAT DO You THINK?

ACCESS get as he be. I bought the stock in 04 when it was N1.95 i think. They did a  share reconstruction(reverse split) and all what nots. I don't like the capital structure there are lots of convertible debt instruments and  and bonds which means if the holders of these instruments decide to convert them to ordinary shares we are talking massive dilution here. I'm just waiting for price to cross the psychologically important N20 mark before i bail out.

I'm not particularly enamoured with bank jare i bought the shares because a dear colleague was working there at the time(i'm praying for him now) and it was ridiculously cheap but then who sabi ACCESS bank then

aktopgun:
SO You GET UR INFO BY WORD OF MOUTH OR You HAVE ACCESS TO ANNUAL REPORTS(DO You BELIEVE THE FIGURES IN THESES?) ?

BY THE WAY, I THINK ACCESS BANK LOOKS ATTRACTIVE WHAT DO You THINK?

Buy bank PHB instead and yes i do look at annual reports and all the news papers and from colleagues who are in the financials. I also read punch online, businessdayonline, proshareng.com, thisdayonline.com and of course nigeriansecurities.com(nice job by the way) do i need to go on?