₦airaland Forum

wanaj0:
Nigerian environment is different. Different in the sense that the risk matrix differs. You need to know the risk drivers so that you can hedge your risk when you invest. You need to know the business model of Costain and how it fits into the economy at large. Are they set to profit from the economic climate? That information is not totally available in the public domain.

No problem in taking risks. But take risks that you UNDERSTAND!!!!!!!!! Take calculated risk.

wanaj0:
The Zenith bank story is still a rumour so take it with a pinch of salt!

As per WEMA, hopefully by December the waiting will be over.

On Costain, I am not that convinced about them. Cappa and D'Alberto looks better to me then. Not sure of now. It is a sector that is very volatile!!!!

wanaj0:
No go get heart attack with this your Wema OOO. Too me, it is quite a risky venture.

Tending to shift towards Diamond Bank now. It appears Actis will be injecting the funds now. That should affect their bottomline.

Time to cash out on IBTC. Grossly over valued stocks. Enough returns if you are not greedy.

WAPCO and Flour Mills looking good. May start with WAPCo and shift to Flour Mills in February next year.

Rumours of Zenith acquiring Equitorial Trust Bank. Not sure how true this is.

Geees:
Crusader became a holding company Crusader Nigeria (Plc)(now the investment vehicle) with 2 wholly owned subsidiaries Crusader Life Insurance(Nig) Ltd and Crusader General Insurance because ins coys are now legally required to split their businesses into two: life and general insurance. So those companies acquired would have been spun off as part of either the general or life insurance business with Crusader (Nig) Plc as the parent company which explains why you wont be able to ascertain the number of shares listed.
So the situation is you have Crusader (Nig) Plc with two wholly owned subsidiaries Crusader life and Crusader general and going forward the acquisitions will probably not make much dent to the shares outstanding

Not sure what happened to the fifth insurance company may be they havent come to an arrangement


SO LONG AS THESE EXTRA SHARE ACQUIRED DOES NOT ADVERSLY AFFECT THE COY I GO FOR IT. Children today will become elders tomorrow. Time will change things.
Any way of getting these valuable information early enough. Have a strong feeling people actually profit from this lack of information.

easimoni:
Work dey. Heroes is on episode 3 (or 4) am I'm luving it!

Crusader acquired 5 companies and wanaj covered them a few days ago but you can find the list on the SEC website under the mergers section. Those mergers (but one) were all consummated in over 8 months ago and no shares seem to have made it on the NSE. I think someone may have mentioned the new companies were paid for using warehoused shares (not sure how that works).

Our calculations are somewhat inconclusive but I will be SHOCKED if they list up to 1B additional shares. and I don't think an addtional B shares will be a major game-changer. If more? ? ? Anyway, we'll get the audited results in ~6 months and all will be clear. If it drops on Monday, I buying more.

easimoni:
Work dey. Heroes is on episode 3 (or 4) am I'm luving it!

Crusader acquired 5 companies and wanaj covered them a few days ago but you can find the list on the SEC website under the mergers section. Those mergers (but one) were all consummated in over 8 months ago and no shares seem to have made it on the NSE. I think someone may have mentioned the new companies were paid for using warehoused shares (not sure how that works).

Our calculations are somewhat inconclusive but I will be SHOCKED if they list up to 1B additional shares. and I don't think an addtional B shares will be a major game-changer. If more? ? ? Anyway, we'll get the audited results in ~6 months and all will be clear. If it drops on Monday, I buying more.

aquita:
@easimoni and the other gurus in nairaland,

you guys should be teaching us how to analyse companies (stocks). is better for u to teach a man how to fish intead of giving him fish all the time. regards.

jehosaphat:
Roughcut, Temmie 10, Shigidi et al,
Is it better to wait till next year for the INS COYS to come out with offers in '08 so that one can shoose the best or is it better to buy right now ( secondary market) because it would suck if one bought now and then they come out "at a discount" lower than I bought, meaning i'd have to scramble to sell and buy at that lower price, so what d'yall think?

jehosaphat:
Roughcut, Temmie 10, Shigidi et al,
Is it better to wait till next year for the INS COYS to come out with offers in '08 so that one can shoose the best or is it better to buy right now ( secondary market) because it would suck if one bought now and then they come out "at a discount" lower than I bought, meaning i'd have to scramble to sell and buy at that lower price, so what d'yall think?

easimoni:
It is advisable to buy insurance companies now because they are down ~30-50% from the highs in June. They may drop further, they may not but it's a good time to buy.

UBA is very impressive and should deliver N23B in profits. But with shares now totalling 11.5B following the PO, N2 EPS is too small for a stock selling at N53. I'd pass on UBA for now.

DO NOT invest for 4 months. Stocks are designed to deliver superior returns in the LONG-TERM and not 4 months. Think of it as a long-term savings account and not a trading opportunity.

wanaj0:
I think they are planning an offer. Capital Oil control the distribution of petroleum products in the South East

Flour Mills did not grow profit for Q1 due to the gas supply distruption around April/May that affected the operating cost. That said, Flour Mills is as solid as you can imagine. Margin in Flour is thin but the margin in Fertiliser and BAGCO is huge. Don't forget they also have a terminal at the port now. Add that to the cement importation and the new cement plant and you will see a well diversified company. They've increased their holdings in some of their associates/subsidiaries. Flour Mills should actually be a conglomerate.

well, I tend to buy stocks that I am willing to hold for LIFE.

If I know the expected gains for ALL stocks then I must be GOD!!!! My brother we can all only speculate and pontificate but there are so many things outside our control. Many things can turn ALL the analysis into trash. Imagine a coup in Nigeria for example? What of escalation of the Niger Delta crisis?

That said, I see Crusader as a GOOD stock to have in the insurance sector. Same thing with UNIC.

Diamond is also a stock that you can look at. FCMB offer also is not bad.
One good thing about the FCMB offer is the strategy. For once, a bank is not spending money opening unprofitable branches! That's my problem with Zenith especially!!!!! Why open loss making branches? Why not leverage on e-banking? Why not role out ATMS all over? Of what advantage is having branches located less than five minutes walking distance to each other.

I am just fascinated with FCMB. With all the mergers and acquisitions that are to come, expect them to be a major player there. If they can get their mortgage financing plans on track, that will also be a good revenue stream for them. The board also looked experienced (apart from the MD). All in all, it is looking attractive.

wanaj0:
FCMB looks better than Fidelity for sure!!!!! Also, most of the funds to be raised will be contributing to profit within one year. Looking attractive to me.

RoughCut:
Yaa will send the link depends on which version you are after. There is an abridged version about 30 pages and there is the full version about 94 pages (but there is a lot of information which is very very useful still digesting the info myself)
Be right with you

easimoni:
HUGE FAN. Best show on TV.

GTB is usually good about releasing within 6 weeks of the close of any quarter. Should be any day now. But the GDR propsectus did not contain any enticing forecasts.
Speaking of forecasts, anyone have the FCMB prospectus yet. Googled it to no avail yesterday.

Temmie10:
The smart money is still on Insurance. The big questions is 'when this plane will take off?'.
Many insurance companies are taking advantage of the favourable govt policy of underwriting for the oil and gas sector and the bottom line is already being impacted.
The impressive growths of 400-1000% profit increases in half year profit have happened without the release of the escrow funds. If this growth continues in the next quarter of their earnings, this sector will create a new batch of billionaires. The fact that Crusader, mbenefits, wapic, lasaco et al all posted exponential increases in earnings without reciept of the funds hints at the opportunity inherent in the sector.
The industry is still a gold mine waiting to happen. The trends of the next results released will indicate whether the growth is sustainable so i am looking at march 2008 onwards for the returns. Btw do you know that the Abbey society intending on listing on the NSE is 20% owned by Mutual Benefits. Some of the smarter md/ceos in insurance are pulling some major strings into making their firms fully fledged insurance firms with life and non-life assurance, oil and gas, asset management, medical insurance etc. I see more prospects in the sector abeg. The market will not react immediately but this is where one must definitely consider taking a significant position if one does not already have a stake (obtained at a reasonable price). The gap between insurance and banking is Nigeria is too Huge despite the fact that insurance is growing at an alarming rate. The economics of it will catch up eventually.
When the funds then get released, it can only create more value.

wanaj0:
The result by UPL is good but I tend to think that Longman has more value. I expect Longman earnings based on previous trend to come mainly in Q3/Q4.

High PE just shows the value that investors place on future growth/earnings. The growth potential in Nigeria is just huge. The banks are yet to scratch the surface of the potentials. MTN just syndicated a loan of $256m. This was done by MANY local banks and some foreign banks. Soon, that will be done locally. Just note that we've not even talked about Mortage.

Look at insurance, the opportunity there is HUGE. Look at companies posting 400% increase in profit.

While it is good to be cautious, the reality is that if the current growth in the economy is sustained, I expect the current situation to continue at least till 2010. So no shaking.
Definitely there will be corrections. Nigeria will not have a market crash at least not now!

easimoni:
MD said they raised N175B , which is ~10.6B shares @ 16.50ea. Not yet official.

easimoni:
N176M was for 6 months! not just the 2nd Q! The EPS is 22k!

wanaj0:
Shigidi, like I've always said, WEMA is not meant for the lilly livered.

If the profit forecast is not met, you are toast.

If the forecast is met, then you don 'hammer' be that.

Based on your risk appetite, you can make up your mind.

If the price drops below 9.00 next week, I will be picking up some. Selling Oceanic to pick up Wema or Diamond.

How did you not make money in NOSPETCO? Were you part of the last joiners??