₦airaland Forum

easimoni:
Am I the only one who saw the C&I Leasing result?     

Is it time to become a growth investor and just KILL this stock? Ki lo de? I know they have 1.6B shares and forward EPS  is only 25k (forward PE is 23) , but what will the forward EPS/PE be if the coy keeps growing PAT at 200% p.a? Can they keep growing? I know some peeps brought it up and I said it wasn't time but hmmmmmm.

Well well they increased PAT for Q3 by 248% from N85M in 06 to N298M in 07 so that gives us a forward PE of 21 and EPS of 29K(the PO in 06 was 75% subscribed) and i noticed the share price did a max 5% today so i think something is definitely on the boil for this stock
Just watch the space!

Has anybody noticed that  RedStar express has appreciated 47% since it got listed about 2 weeks ago? Dont have the financials to do the quants. The funny thing is only one person is responsible for shifting about 20K of the stock today and it did the max 5% today as well.

Anybody with the results please holla

@Roughcut
I think there is a mistake in your calculation
177 m for qQ2 is projected to 354 mil for year end jan31/2008
proj. EPS is 22k NOT 44k as you stated
proj . PE at today's price of 5.37 is 24 NOT 11 as you stated.
So with enlarged1.6 billion shares ,i don't think C & I is any thing to write home about.

Actually the listed shares will be 1.35B(75% subscription for the PO in 06 according to the SEC website) and that gives us an adjusted forward EPS of 26K and forward PE ratio of  ~21

More to the point if the projections for PAT 2007 are correct then they would have grown  PAT by a massive 250% from N90M in 06 to N354M in 07 and therefore in my books that's a lot to write home about and that's why i'm pinning for this stock in 08

FatherOF2:
Where you beginning to doubt yourself before?.

me no shaking i dey kampe i agreed with what Temmie10 said that relying on rumours to trade is in more ways than one a recipe for disaster!

Temmie10:
@fatherof2
i have always said, if something works for you, stick to it so i am happy you have a system that works for you.
The problem however arises in when you take what works for you and you try to turn it into a universal principle.
Trading on rumors is hardly a proven recipe for success.

I'm with you on this one bro

FatherOF2:
Those who are advicing you not quickly bail out of Wema because of TS are people who never buy POs and hate being on TS.You tie your money down during
TS.I bet you before Wema TS is lifted next year,some guys would have made 25% from GTB from 14th Nov, made 25% from Intercontinental from 13th Nov.Made 25% from WAPCO from Dec 21 2007,and still take part in wema after TS is lifted.All this while you tied money down in Wema and still wait another 7 or 8 months to collect just 43% after verification of your wema PO certificate.
They Law is Buy cheap and sell high

BUY ON RUMOUR AND SELL ON NEWS.

Happy investing.

if you buy on rumour that turns out to be false you will be seriously burnt_{to borrow wanaj0's catch phrase}

aktopgun:
@roughcut

oh really.
who are abbey mortgages? heard something about them recently but turned a deaf ear

but as my bros don mention am now, whats the 411?

Mutual benefits one of the big players in the insurance space is acquiring or has acquired 20% equity in Abbey Mortgage and if the mortgage sector is taking off as we suspect in naija at least you need life insurance to take mortgage so i can see the synergy in these two sectors and i think we are going to see a lot more strategic alliance between the providers in the mortgage and insurance sectors so why not?

Dont forget also a lot of these banks that are doing these PO/IPO's are hoping to deploy a substantial chunk of the proceeds of their offers to develop their retail banking and mortgage businesses(at least from FCMB and bank PHB prospectus as they have identified this sector as growth areas) so i kinda like the idea of taking position before everybody wakes up to the fact(Abbey are preparing for listing on the stock exchange this month)

aktopgun:
red star gained 5% againn yesterday
its for the brave though as it isnt tried and tested per se yet

profits have increased steadily for 11yrs or so according to the CEO

definitely one to watch i suppose

only worry is when it would be best to take up a position

any thoughts fellas

And they have been paying dividends for the past 10 yrs but looks like there might be liquidity issues which the stockbrokers who were trading the stock before it got listed were complaining about so with the listing they are setting up for an IPO in the not-too distant future so i suppose a bit more dilution would be welcome and if the price goes a bit lower definitely for me and now its got listed we can access the financials

Abbey mortgage (to be listed this month) is one of my dark horses for 08

aktopgun:
spreadsheets, columns, multiply by 4 divide by 3  

heeeeeeeeeeeeeelllllllllllpppppppppppppp, my brain is on the fritz!!

not really, only joking
but it does sound a bit tech really

so i get a list of all the securities on an excel worksheet manually ? and then what columns do i include

hope this isn't stressing u out

have a look @ nigeriansecurities.com and the relevant columns you need  are

Current Price -- Outstanding Shares---Current PAT----Projected PAT---Projected EPS----Projected PE Ratio

I will yarn later how to project these ratios

yodiyokun:
@at all,

We need to have a rule on new comers not reading the whole thread before asking questions.

Seriously, I have re-read this thread about 3-4 times already - why can't newbies do the same. There is a wealth of information on this thread, and learning about this game takes time and effort.

Now I understand what P.E , EPS is and how to claculate them and make sense of it all. Not too long ago I was a JJC as well.

Stop asking what is P.E bla bla , READ THE THREAD FIRST , then ask clarifying questions.

Doing some work yourself shows some committment.

Nuff said

My exam went o.k (thanks for asking)

all the best!

[quote author=no_shaking link=topic=31554.msg1684490#msg1684490 date=1195141230](Ta
Seconded (technicals wise)!! Crusader, Unic then Law & Union for now. Crusader & Unic are yet to release their Q3 reports, whilst Law & Union already did. Short term traders can position themselves now before the release of these Q3 reports. For Law & Union, the FY 2007 (next report due) should take about 3 months after yr end before its release (around Apr 08).

So, first thing first, make u chop breakfast first, before eating lunch (if u get my drift) [/quote]Mutual benefits was in pole-position all the while and all of a sudden it got shunted to the back burner

crusader,law union and rock and unic are top of the pops for me_{i dont have a reverse gear as far as these are concerned!}

yodiyokun:
@roughcut,

swap UNIC position with Law Union, thats according to me sha oo.

But those three are definitely good to go.

I'm buying all three!

i have issued BUY order for CRUSADER, LAWUNION and UNIC in that order_{easimoni is that right?}

easimoni:
My interpretation is that the value of the shares I still own will remain the same but the PE/EPS will still get diluted once the cash injection for shares is effected. It's still the same effects as a PO but without the proliferation of shares/shareholders which causes excessive price volatility. I'll need more details to see if it's really a good deal or not.

The value(if i assume you mean the price) of the shares you own will not be the same. The way i put it is  your shares are reduced  by whatever ratio they desire but the value or is it the price of your shares will go up in the same proportion effectively the value of your holdings(share price x units you hold) will remain as it was before which is why they need to go on TS.

Since the the number of shares outstanding is reduced they can re-issue the cancelled shares so to speak  in return for the cash injection so we would be where we started before the TS and depending on the prevailing sentiments after TS and share reconstruction would we start noticing the impact on the share price.

If the yet-to-be named foreign investor is a heavy-weight then we can assume what is happening to UBN share price now will also happen to WEMA share price

Those in the fray to take up 30% of UBN equity are the creme-de-la-creme of the financials and i'm quite sure any bank in nigeria would dearly love to be associated with them we are talking Merryl Lynch and HSBC here_{you dont get bigger than that!}

aktopgun:
@roughcut
u are still the master though
i defer to u and the other gurus any day
i'm a small but enthusiastic player

the young shall grow

now where have i heard that before?

anyway back to making some dosh< anyone got that lucky 40 insurance list?
a look in would be appreciated fellas

and the old shall?

yodiyokun:
You these people, will not killy me. Haba !! in just 2 days, I have well over 5 pages to read!!!. God Bless Seun for starting this thread, thanks to easimoni, Wanaj0, roughcut , shigidi and others for keeping it alive.

Yes oooooooooooo Insurance has taken off!. Not one single red flag, I hope it continues like this oooo.

With additional 80B, the sky is the limit.

Can anyone share the list of of net bids on the floor today?

And they wont be doing a PO soon with all that cash! so its all systems go but downside might be that the ins stocks may now become illiquid on the floor

yodiyokun:
You these people, will not killy me. Haba !! in just 2 days, I have well over 5 pages to read!!!. God Bless Seun for starting this thread, thanks to easimoni, Wanaj0, roughcut , shigidi and others for keeping it alive.

Yes oooooooooooo Insurance has taken off!. Not one single red flag, I hope it continues like this oooo.

With additional 80B, the sky is the limit.

Can anyone share the list of of net bids on the floor today?

somebody just shared this with us very useful

aktopgun:
@roughcut
if u remember a few days back i suspected this to be the case
what am i? a genius or what!!!

i just hope my cheque book agrees with my currently overinflated ego!!

May be you should be consulting for these banks on strategy and tactics

aktopgun:
roughcut
what say u?

all those whispers about a PO was a complete 'red-herring' they completely wrong-footed everybody! those guys up there at the head-quarters are master tacticians!

shigidi:
@ easimoni, you are right. the bulls are coming back in full force. nigerian german is now 19 naira and i havent enterd. do u think it will still come down a little because at 19naira, there is not much room for gain again.
is it true the insurance funds have been released by the way

As at today the money is being released to  the 'lucky' insurance coys http://www.proshareng.com/myproshare/portal_news.php?id=3189

aktopgun:
roughcut, men u just returned the joy to my soul
thanks man
see u at the bank!!
kching!!!!!!!!!!

send me an e-cheque!

aktopgun:
chei chei chei!!
missed wema tech susp by 1 day.

just hope there's a bull run after its lifted
does anyone know what all the talk about share reconstruction/foreign investment for wema is about?

Its now viv la crusader gents! its just gone higher than my entry price sice i bought it at N4.45

let the good times roll!

I still have ~30% of my WEMA left. According to proshareng it is going to be  issued share capital reconstruction which means they cancel some shares and adjust the price accordingly. Depends on what ratio they want to do the reverse split if they reduce the shares outstanding (about 10B) by half it means  my holding will reduce in half but double the price which makes the value of my holding the same i.e assuming they do a 2:1 reverse split.

That way they can accommodate the foreign equity without doing a PO. The proportion of the cancelled  shares will simply be sold to the foreign investor in return for cash injection

Those guys are very very  smart many igbosas to them!

UBN is not increasing their authorised share capital the directors are instead giving up 30% of their own equity in the bank to the foreign investors

Someone will be making serious cash here_{i mean the directors}

http://www.punchng.com/Articl.aspx?theartic=Art200709171521281

ololufemi:
Guys which side are you on,

The Bulls or the Bears

You decide

i cant make out the bear from the bull may be you need to increase the resolution or magnify your picture

Temmie10:
It seems the rumour of a foreign investor definitely had meat then. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. I'm staying put.
Attention jumps to Insurance, this is like having your bread buttered on both sides

UBN was looking to offload 30% equity to foreign investors and  Merryl Lynch, Citigroup and HSBC have shown their hands  but it looks like the  management has decided to go with HSBC and Merryl Lynch so we are going to be co-owners with these heavy-weights. I think they are going to increase their authorised share capital to accommodate  the capital injection for which i understand they have already got approval from the AGM

May be i will stay put afterall_{No shaking!}

UBN is on course to do ~N30B for full-year no wonder transactions involving this stock has been in billions in the last 2 days may be i should ride my luck a bit more before i offload i'm looking at ~N55 as my exit point

The giant is slowly being roused from its deep slumber!

easimoni:
I see that the price did not move in any direction today. For such an in-demand stock, that is a sure sign of TS. _{Phew. That was close!}

very very close

@aktopgun
To that list add ikeja hotels, Red Star Express(now listed and if you get to buy) and when Abbey Mortgage is listed (sometime this month) it is the twin brother of Mutual benefits(they have or are in the process of acquiring 20% equity in Abbey)

1Q 2008 is going to be very interesting

easimoni:
Lot's of my colleagues going through the same as well. That's why I hesitate to leverage. You just never know.I've replied.

You have already sold your WEMA! so which one be I'm not selling my WEMA

wanaj0:
Chellarams still holding forth. waiting for Nigerian German to start another rally. Facing resistance at the 19.00 mark.

Yes interest rates are much lower. But when you use a loan/margin, your emotions tend to get more into your reasoning. have many around me now passing through 'counselling' for using short term loans (one year) for long term investment (capital market)

For you to do that successfully, you must be a technical trader. I'm sure you know that technical traders tend to take on much more risks.

You hedge your risks by making sure you will not need to 'sell' to repay the loan

Do you have any updates regarding the zenith/ETB 'arrangement' or is it a far-fetched speculation?

easimoni:
HMMMMMMMM. _{Off to crunch some numbers!}

It might be cheaper if you want to go down that route interest rates are low compared to Nigeria and you probably request it for a fixed period of time (fixed-term)

easimoni:
@ D-DOTS,
my 2008 resolution (not too early to think about it) per investing is to blend tech analysis into my skill set. Done a bit of reading on investopedia. Is there a demo software I can get my hands on that can do the analysis for me?

@Youngdoc
RE: MArgin trading
Liver no gree me yet. I have to make a call in a few days. 1Q 08 is likely going to be quite bullish. Now is the time (if ever). Being out of naija doesn't help either.

And you cant tap into the credit market in the US?

ololufemi:
Hello Guys and to all my peeps,

Easimoni, Pumping777, Wanajo, Roughcut and etc

Just got some news from the grapevine.

Heard Dangote Flour may get to about N40 -N45 early next year. I pray it does.

Also heard that there may be a merger between Zenith and ETB soon. This will be the bomb.

Any views on these.


One Naija, the greatest country in the World.

Things are just getting interesting by the day! Nigeria how i love thee

Infact if what you have just shared  gets repeated in a few more circles guess what happens to ETB share price

Actually i think wanaj0 shared the same on this forum regarding Zenith/ETB
wanaj0 any more gist regarding this?