₦airaland Forum

easimoni:
@Sweet_aura,
I've heard this gist before in different flavours. From the same brokers who had "BUY" recommendations on Wema just weeks ago?

And why shouldn't they buy their own shares. If everyone one is losing their cool and selling, why shouldn't they buy up only to sell when they have good news.

Naija is full of urban legends. Everybody "knows" what's going on only after it happens.

Bro i couldn't agree more with you! A lot of publicly quoted companies buy back their own shares to prop up the price. Can someone honestly tell me what FBN is going to do with the N250B oversubscription from the last PO? They originally intended to raise N100B and now they are absorbing N250B i tell you this for nothing they will capitalize the oversubscription(which means they will increase their authorized share capital) and of course mop up the shares either in the open-market or through some investment vehicles or return cash to their loyal investors via mouth-watering dividends (least likely)

Going back to the mattter in hand WEMA has value going forward and their risk management framework is shot to pieces which is why they have paid a heavy price by the huge provisions they have made for bad and non-performing loans albeit indirectly by those of who have vested interest via our shareholding in the bank.

They will never come to the market without a set of good interim results next time around and dont forget the IPO or is it PO? has to be undewritten to the tune of 80%(by stockbrokers) before they can get approval to approach the market so that should be interesting

I'm HOLDING FIRE!

yodiyokun:
forget ZEnith ooo they be whinch.

My source at Zenith told me they make about 3 Billion every month PAT. He just told me early this week. I found it very hard to believe.

Now this Q1 result has shown he was not fibbing.

This guys are aiming for the stars ooo.


IF I can extrapolate based on the salary war between Zenith and Oceanic - They may be making PAT almost as much as Zenith is.

For some of us that have long term investment objectives, there is no better time than now to pump money into NSE.

If you see the yeye returns mutual funds give in Canada, you will laugh.

I beg I am expartriating all the spare cash I have to Naija.

Investing in places like Canada, US,UK(apart from properties) etc is not worth the effort(those markets dont need us) if you want to include overseas stocks in your portfolio you are better off investing in funds that have the bulk of their holdings in emerging markets like Brazil, Mexico,Vietnam even closer to home Angola, Ghana, S/Africa.China and India are over-heating and a bubble waiting to burst so i wont touch them with a barge pole

@Allwell
If you are looking for where to invest look thru the last 5 pages of this thread and i'm sure you will have nothing less than at least a shortlist of 5 solid stocks you can plough your money into

easimoni:
That wouldn't be because of the 8.6B 1Q PAT no shaking graciously shared with us? . It's very impressive. Shows they are on their way to N30B at FY. But let's not forget that they are setting us up for the N250B offer and 5B new shares will push the forward EPS to just under N2.

easimoni i see you have changed your tune well i suppose HOLDING fire is probably the way to go as far as WEMA is concerned i have a sneaky feeling there is still one more twist in this WEMA soap opera so we are just about ready for the good 'news' those guys have yet to show their hands

easimoni:
That wouldn't be because of the 8.6B 1Q PAT no shaking graciously shared with us?   . It's very impressive. Shows they are on their way to N30B at FY. But let's not forget that they are setting us up for the N250B offer and 5B new shares will push the forward EPS to just under N2.

Not many banks  will come even close to achieving a forward EPS of nearly N2.00 Zenith  bank is the biggest bank in Nigeria by market cap as we have been made to believe

I can only draw one conclusion from these spate of PO/IPO's with all these banks outdoing one another to approach the capital market to raise capital for one reason or the other(from the sublime to the ridiculous) i think we will have less than 25 banks in 2 years' time with some of those who cannot compete being gobbled up(with little help from foreign equity firms) and the banks that are left standing falling into either the premier or division one category and then you can expect the big boys from overseas to start showing their hands that is when the MEN will be separated from the BOYS so things are looking interesting at the moment

So the banks are basically strategizing to position themselves for the next round of  consolidation this is not going to be as a result of any directive it will just be the logical thing to happen

You have  heard  it on N'land so be ready to take off on the B of the Bang without making a false start!

If it the price keeps gyrating like a yo-yo as it is now i think it's safe to assume that no mortal damage will be done before we see the interim results
Monday it was a definite SELL now its HOLD fire
Nigeria we hail thee oh how i love my country!

easimoni:
I'm tired of this NSE. One day Wema is on offer (80M units yesterday) and the next it's on bid? The sold N1.8B in shares today. Someone want's us to dump so they can buy. They must know something we don't.

Sold or is it bought(not sure now) 190M units today after gyrating between 9.10-N10.04 finally closing on N9.63 well why do i have the suspicion that someone or is it a group of people is/are seriously manipulating events?

Well no shaking two can play that game!

wanaj0:
The problem has nothing to do with National Bank. The problem was with WEMA itself!!!!!!

If you are patient enough, WEMA will definitely come good.

The issue is whether you will wait for SURULERE when OLORUNSOGO is there!!!!!!

One thing that is becoming obvious on this WEMA issue is that a lot of people have not learnt to remove their emotions when making investment decisions. Sentiments still drive a lot of people.

BTW, anyone checked FCMB prospectus. Hope you noticed that Q1 assets was less than the FY 2007 assets. WHich shows that something is FISHY!!!!!!

WEMA has  steadily been writing-down their assets for their positions on risk assets as follows;
N8.10B, N6.50B, N1.99B, N2.19B for 2007, 2006, 2005 and 2004 respectively.
So to borrow your words i like to believe that they have cleaned their books now!

Talking about FCMB i read the full prospectus and i think i made the point somewhere on this thread the major shareholders have leveraged (borrowed money from the bank itself) to fund their equity acquisition and for 2007 alone the sum involved i believe is about  N5B (why  don't i like that?)

Well i would like to believe their risk management framework( i think they have one!) will ensure the bottomline is not adversely impacted and what i found out also is that their projection for PAT for YEnd April 30 2008 will grow from N5B in 2007 to a whopping N15B in 2008(look out for the interim results!)  i think that's very aggressive personally

EMMAACHILE:
I think Wema should be able to post a minimum PAT of at least 8 billion naira going forward to June 2008 and this gives you an EPS of at least 0.8. Assigning a PE of 25 to this shoud give 20 naira which is not bad by WEMA.

The PAT this year should have been above 8 billion but due to problems with loans, etc which i think will not repeat itself this financial year.

I will buying more if it drops below 8.00 in place of buying FCMB. This may sound crazy to some people.
WEMA is still among top traded and may turn to bid if the interim results for Sept 2007 is good

I will keep my fingers crossed.

The year end for WEMA is March 31 so by my estimation their interim 6-month result for YEnd March 2008 is due any time(at least they've pushed out the 'bad' news) and that way we can project the forward PAT for the YEnd March 2008 so that should make up our minds for us. From some of the figures i have seen they have been amortizing their bad and non-performing loans for the last 4 years so i believe they  have now cleaned up their 'classified accounts'(another phrase for bad loans on their books i think) by making a provision of N8B for doubtful assets and liabilities they acquired from National  bank.
Anything short of market expectation they realise will be disastrous for the bank and i sincerely hope somebody from WEMA bank is reading all  the stuff we have been posting on this thread:-)

[/quote][quote author=wanaj0 link=topic=52566.msg1634673#msg1634673 date=1193816130]If you are not a weather forecaster, be careful with Okomu Oil and Presco!!!!!!

Ha ha wanaj0 you must have read my mind! How did you do that?

aktopgun:
sorry roughcut i tried to open your response but couldn't
is there any way u can send it to me again or to my e-mail, its seunarasilk@yahoo.com

many thanks

Sorry that was an error on my part(still a bit groggy:-) i have posted the response as below but not directly to your question. I believe wanaj0 suggested Diamond bank is a good bet going forward at least i like the idea of  foreign capital injection from Actis private equity so that will increase capacity and can only add an upside. I have not analysed the stats but they sure have impresive results if you are interested i can oblige you at no cost to you at all

Dont know about Okomu oil though

KDK:
As a servant of God, I can't involve myself in certain biz ( brewery ) however, the stock I am looking to invest in but still watching are as :NAHCO, 1ST BANK,GTB,BANK PHB, intercontinental, c & i ( weary but watching carefully)

Like i said in an earlier post, I have been away for somew time so I am not really up to speed yet but as for now, these are my pick but my fingers are still crossed.
I am trying to get some fundamentals and future prospects so don't take my word for it yet but u can take my instincts.

I understand your sesitivities be that as it may on your watchlist take a closer look at Bank PHB, Intercontinetal and C&I i have done some analysis on Bank PHB and C&I somewhere on this thread(cant fish it out now) or on the other thread i'm sure by the time you thrawl through the last 5 pages of this thread or the sister thread you should find the info on these two stocks. Hope this helps

nkc:
please i would like to ask one question, to d gurus in d house,
someone that bot into first bank shares at 33naira, and now does not want it again and wants to get his money back at d same 33 naira, is it possible and how does one go about it , if it were possible. thanks

Very simple just wait till when the price is above N33(the stock is not my cup of tea so not sure what the price is) and sell so by the time the commission and brokerage fees are deducted you probably get your N33 back but get the share cert first

Very easy i would say!

dollarmani:
Iwerebor,

I think if nothing, one of the things we have learnt from the usefull  non-condescending contributions so far before you joined, is that anlyst opinions and buy recommendations are theirs and not necessarily ours. For a lot of us here, we use it as a pointer as to what we may look out in the future and not the absolute fact in making a decision.  This forum  provides us the opportunity to table such recommendations determine the merit  from usefull contributions and then go again to indivually do due dilligece before making the decision. I don t hink there is any resource out there including my brokers and IBTC reports that i follow well that does not warn you about the the objectivity of their buy and sell recommendations. By the way IBTC which i use has WEMA as a Buy buy, as at their last posting. I will not call them or sue them for such if i bought WEMA as a result of that ssuming i lacked the ability to make my own buy decision.

Please don't call people names here because the internet obscures your identity.

If you really have to be negative and i understand that some people can't resist the urge to be jerks. !Find the jerksconsortium blog!

FOR MY PEOPLE WITH WEMA

For people who have WEMA. In the short term it may look bad now, but you have a stock with good forward earnings potentials and it can only drop so low. If i were u i will not get out now but reduce my exposure by buying more when it bottoms out to reduce my exposure. The market will reprice it in a short while now that the bad loans and the liabilities on their books are largerly gone (subject to confirmation).

The key is not to panic, this seemingly short term mistake might turn out to be a medium to long term bumper harvest

Sayings of the wise. The fountain of wisdom you are drinking from will not run dry rather it will be replenished on a daily basis

I owe you a lot of igbosas!  You will kill another one!

pumping777:
I'd be surprised if they won't know the impact of releasling only the FY results.

For me, if they will release a good result say in 2 weeks if you will, then this provides the opportunity for some insiders that sold at 11 Naira last week to buy at 7-8 Naira during this glut and start smiling in 2 weeks time

I would like to believe they are pushing the 'bad' news into the public domain first and when the dust settles hit us with the 'good' news anything short of that will be an unmitigated disaster

If you hold WEMA _{speaking to myself} dump now and specify a limit order for your broker i.e a price below which they must not sell!You can assume WEMA share price will be losing the max it's permitted to lose for a few days until they come out with a spectacular!

yodiyokun:
@Roughcut,

I tell you Wema is in for a beating.

We need to know what the 8.1B was for exactly That will show the true picture of things.

Let anyone that has further details on this result please post it. It will shed light into whats going on.

If they had such terrible results, they should have been smart enough to release the 6 months interim along side ( assumption - the 6 months should be better).

That was the stretegy FIB used and the price did not even blink.

Lets see what the rest of this week holds for Wema.

Obvoiusly they did not have anybody advising them on strategy and if they are planning to come to the market they know what they need to do and if they cant show us anything to prove they know what they are doing they might as well put up the bank for sale.

It is speculation though until i see the breakdwon i think the N8.1B write-down of their assets would have been sustained mainly for the goodwill in acquiring the assets of National bank remember that they would had to assume the assets and liabilities of National bank which they would not have been able to quantify reasonably since they did not audit the accounts of National bank and the rest would go on bad and doubtful and non-performing loans which i understand is one of the things that caused a lot of 'aggro'

Going forward short-term you are right WEMA bank is on the racks

The 53K drop in WEMA share price represents exactly 5% which i think is the limit to which the price can drop i hate to think what would have happened if there had been no cap

It would have been a carnage chei!

[quote author=no_shaking link=topic=31554.msg1628858#msg1628858 date=1193665616]Likewise, so no shaking!!

Summary of WEMA FY 2007

Net Operating Income - N19.86b
Less:
Provision for risk assets - N8.1b
Operating Expenses - N11.01b etc

PBT N1.88b
+ Tax Credit - N0.68b

Thus, PAT - N2.56b[/quote]Let's put the results into context though they have made provision to write-down their assets to the tune of N8.1B for goodwill and bad loans so going forward it is not a total disaster (will like to see breakdown when it's available to confirm this is the case) but the problem is how many peeps will see it this way?
In the short-term it's not good news at all and already the share price has lost 53K just today how much more in the days ahead?

[quote author=no_shaking link=topic=31554.msg1628458#msg1628458 date=1193659845]WEMA FY 2007 - PAT N2.55b; EPS 0.25k

FY 2006 - LAT N6.6b

Very disappointing results!!! despite all the +ve insinuations from the MD etc. Just way below the expectation. Share price down 0.50k as at 12.00 today. More downside through the week!!![/quote]The PAT for the 1st quarter  ended June 2006 for YEnd March 2007 was N1.678B  so for the FY 2006(YEnd March 2007) they only managed to add  ~N800M for the last three quarters well i would like to believe the goodwill in aqcuiring National bank must have been written off against their reserves and therefore the PAT.

The only saving grace would be if the 1st quarter or half-year interim results (June or Sept 2007) for YEnd March 2008 meet expectation but going forward this news will send the share price spiralling downwards until calm is restored by 'impressive' interim results

@MyPeace

Cannot give a date that is cast in stone but both companies are on TS meaning they have filed an application and offer documents with SEC which means SEC are in the process of checking if both companies have done their due diligence and if everything is ok hopefully Bank PHP should be out by mid November and Costain later because Costain was placed on TS last Friday or thereabouts.

Hopefully for Bank PHB the offer comes out mid-november(dont quote me though) so that they can conclude the exercise by mid-DEC so it doesnt spill-over into the christmas festive season for the simple reason that a lot of peeps will not be thinking buying shares during or close to that period and things generally are winding down so hopefully it can be done and dusted before Christmas. Costain is a bit more tricky because they have just initiated the process of approaching the capital market and not sure how long it takes to clear the regulatory hurdles from SEC

I do sincerely hope the two offers do not coincide!

KDK:
Hello Guys,
I have been out of the country for long and as such was not privileged to follow things on the floor due to the nature of my job and internet accessibilty while on the job. I am struggling to catch up but what do you guys think about GTB at current floor price?

GTB is a solid bank at any time but they lost the plot with their GDR and a lot of peeps who bought paid more than they should really have done. For where to put your money i would advise you read the last 5-6 pages of this thread and i'm sure you should be a ble to come up with a shortlist of candiadate stocks you might want to invest in

MyPeace:
@Roughcut,

l like your analysis on bank PHB on the other thread.

please at what price do u see FCMB in the next one year?

l don't know why all these coys are coming to the market at the same time, they should allow us to save and get ready!

Only God knows who is advising these banks as per the startegy they are adopting why they think it makes sense to push out a myriad of IPO/PO's almost all at the same time beats me!
Now to your question trying to predict where the price would be this time next year will always be a difficult one but let's start from the basics

PAT for YEnd April 2007=N5.9B

# Shares outstanding  ~9.5B

Trailing EPS                  = 62k

Trailing PE Ratio           =28.14

Already they have made N2.6B for the 1st quarter YEnd April 2008 therefore on an annualized basis the

Forward EPS=74k and forward

PE Ratio      =23.58

Now according to the prospectus they are hoping to grow the PAT from N5B in 2007 to a whopping N15B (200%)in 2008 i would say this is aggressive but achievable especially if all the projects they are embarking on start making money and most if not all of their projects for which they are raising the money  are expected to start earning within a year so their projections may be achievable therefore if we go by the projections in the prospectus i would expect the price to be in the rêgion of 22-25 in a year's time.
Having said that it may prove to be way off or the otherway round.I think somebody predicted ACCESS would be a N25 stock before  DEC but looks like it's stuck on N18.
We may project based on the info we have but then there are other factors which may affect share price movement which you cannot model quantitatively or predict sometimes the market can be so irrational that it's beyond belief.

All in all FCMB IPO is a good buy but Bank PHP is even better!

icez:
Roughcut
thanks very much. sorry i forgot to add FCMB. I also said i had about 70k, shld i use it in buying just from one company or spread it over different ones. and how can i do it

Yaa since you have 70k and in order not to spread yourself too thinly i would advise you go for not more than two different stocks go for FCMB at least you are assured of getting your dividend by the time they release their full year results march next year(they hope to do the allotment by January so which means you will be on the register and therefore qualify) and may be Japaul but i'm not sure if you will entitled to the next dividend they declare by the time they report i will have to check this for you. They have promised to pay dividends

icez:
please, the gurus in da house. I need help. I have about 70k, which of these is/are the best bet to buy;
   intercontinental
    bank PHB
    Fidelity
    Afribank
    Japaul oil and maritime service
ronkebaby, Kg, wills, pumping 777, please i need your advise.

Remove Fidelity and Afribank from that list and put FCMB instead. You are guaranteed i think 50K div when they report next year March and have a look at Bank PHP(Cant say more than what i have already said----->https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-52566.0.html#msg1619655 about bank PHP until i see the prospectus) then Japaul in that order

easimoni:
I'm buying Insurance companies esp Crusader. I'll also recommend M Benefits and Law Union & rock.

Completely with you on this one but then i couldnt possibly disagree with you!Add to that list Abbey Mortgage whenever its listed (M Benefits is planning or has it already acquired? 20% equity)

Ins stocks are looking affordable at the moment so i'm with easimoni on this one

wanaj0:
No go get heart attack with this your Wema OOO. Too me, it is quite a risky venture.

Tending to shift towards Diamond Bank now. It appears Actis will be injecting the funds now. That should affect their bottomline.

Time to cash out on IBTC. Grossly over valued stocks. Enough returns if you are not greedy.

WAPCO and Flour Mills looking good. May start with WAPCo and shift to Flour Mills in February next year.

Rumours of Zenith acquiring Equitorial Trust Bank. Not sure how true this is.

To Diamond bank also add Bank PHP i have just stumbled on some stats which are staggering

PAT for YEnd June 2007=N7.7B increase of  over 250% on N2.24B for corresponding period last year

# shares outstanding~6B(this needs verifying as an additional 1.6B have been listed not sure if this included in the total # of shares outstanding)

So that gives us a trailing PE of 19.9 and a whopping EPS =1.28 very rare in the banking sector infact not sure how many banks have achieved this feat

Already for the 1st quarter YEnd June 2008 they have made a profit before tax(PBT) of N4.5B and i like the noise i'm hearing about the acquisition of  GTI insurance and PHB Asset Management in partnership with Fortis Investments of Europe(One of the big boys in Europe did some consultancy work for them and also one of the major players planning to swallow ABN AMRO in the biggest banking take-over) so this will only add an upside to the bottomline.

The share price is currently on TS hoping to float an IPO @N17 when approval is granted this will result in additional shares of 5B being listed. To think this was a bank that did a private placement in 2004 @N1.95_{dont know what i was looking at then} now it's trading @ N25.51 and i think it went as far as N34 at some point in the year  so we are talking  N40 stock around June next Year

So this is definitely on the watchlist for me!

pumping777:
Costain on TS today @ N18.89. I hear PO is @ N13 and rights issue @N11. Looks attractive looking at the fundamentals but will wait for the prospectus.

After Flour Mills  Costain (WA) is about the best investment as far as fundamentals go. Looks  this is done and dusted  you have heard it on nairaland if you dont believe me read this---https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria?topic=52566.msg1552345#msg1552345

We are looking at_{with BIGBOY LARRY's borrowed crystal balls} least N25 by the time they report full year March 2008 so if you pick up the PO for N13 ( i dont like IPO/PO's) you are on the home run!

wanaj0:
Doing short term is a plan for high blood pressure. Doing short term with TRANSCORP is a recipe for disaster. Please DON'T!!!!!!!!!

Never do short term with an IPO. At least not less than 6 months!!!!!!!

Like you must have noticed, a lot depend on your risk appetite. I prefer people going to the market with a long term objective even though you can take advantage of short term opportunities.

Diamond and Wema are good if they FIT into your risk profile. Note na your money and the RISK is purely on YOU.

[quote author=wanaj0 link=topic=31554.msg1609656#msg1609656 date=1193152241][/quote]I like that one I couldnt have put it better myself.

wanaj0:
Bought WEMA yesterday at 8.60. Will watch and see if it will get to 15.00 so as to exit.

I have WEMA which i have been holding onto now so the question for me is to sort out how many more units i need to acquire_{i'm talking extra large here}. I feel like i'm taking the biggest gamble since 2004 so i'm a bit jittery just now

shigidi:
WEMA has gained 5% for two consecutive days now!!! i smell a rat somewhere, i might just hold on till the end of next week and see what happens.and flour mills seems to be bleeding, a good entry price for anyone.

it's becoming difficult to ignore the stench coming from this rat:-)

shigidi:
costain right now has the best fundamentals out there second only to FLOUR MILLS. forecast eps is 2.90, if you can get costain at 17naira, jump in, don't forget a po is coming out soon so you might get 30% on that because i know they will not want to come out below 20 naira. not sure about the long term yet.

You have scored a direct hit on this one. Their YEnd is March 31 2008 i suspect when they report for the 3rd quarter in Dec or Jan next year and the results meet expectations then i can bet my bottom dollar they will go for the PO and in the meanwhile the share price will be heading in only one direction