₦airaland Forum

Temmie10:
@shigidi
Access is looking good. granted.
You'd do well to ask, why is there so much selling pressure on the stock just after the ts has been lifted though?

@whitelexi
what insurance stocks are u holding? what price did you buy them. That sector is not as general as it looks.

@alliednetw
the price of lasaco has been trading in the same range for about 5 months now.
So i dun subscribe to the gist that its becoming cheaper. There's not much new happening to lasaco.

I suppose peeps are taking profit and it probably will dip a little when all those who bought into the PO get their certs verified and the market gets flooded with Access shares to lock in their profits

@Gbengaijot

i think you might want to read this--->http://businessdayonline.com/National/463.html

UNTL is closing down operations with the loss of 4000 jobs so i'm just a bit baffled where you got the info that UNTL might be worth investing in or what gave you the feeling you seem to have about investing in UNTL. There's nothing like doing your own due diligence and as someone has already pointed out you dont invest based on your feelings
Sounds a bit harsh but it just goes to prove there's no substitute for doing your own homework

shigidi:
heard oceanic want to absorb shares to get up to 22 billion.
wouldnt be too worried though. i would expect the price to fall to about 26-28 based on this news. wont be too bad to pick up some then for the long term

Now is probably the time to take profits when certs are released (very imminent) and peeps start verifying you can expect the market to be flooded with oceanic shares and price will nose-dive and that is when you need to re-enter at least that way you have taken your profit and still hold the stock

jungle700:
@ Roughcut

Can you please let us know the source of your news on Wema Bank? I mean about the dispute,

stockmarketnigeria.com and then http://www.stockmarketnigeria.com/forums/banking-stocks/523-wema-bank.html

easimoni:
@ RoughCut,
I followed that article as well and I had serious thoughts to dump my Wema. If true, it's a shame to let beef get in the way of millions of shareholders. Anyway, I'm holding to xmas, then if no results, I go comot hand.

What these morons dont understand is if the institutional and major shareholders revolt they will be out on their ears without a leg to stand on. I'm sure they did not become investors for some misguided peeps with over-bloated egos to paralyse the company
Did 7M shares yesterday with price inching downwards net offer so the proverbial tide may be turning afterall
Anyway will hold fire till Dec

mee25:
ACCESS BANK closed at N20.85 today . Is it heading N27 before december

Post suspension bull run  will drive up the price and  after verifying  certs and then a dip when everybody starts to sell(profit taking). So the post suspension euphoria may drive the price to 27 by that time frame(it's a possibility!)

It is being speculated on the stockmarketnigeria forum that probably the reason the results for YEnd Mar 2007 for WEMA bank has not yet been released is because there is a beef between Lemo(former MD WEMA bank) who is now Dep Gov CBN(Banking Supervision) and Owoyeni who is now MD about some bad loans approved allegedly under Lemo when he was at WEMA and that probably explains why the YEnd Mar 2006 financial results have remained unaudited even in 2007!. Apparently the big 'oga' is throwing his weight around to surpress the results so by the time the results are audited a lot of shenanigans would have gone on as per the results

I mean is there not a statutory requirement for publicly quoted companies to report within a specified period of time? doesnt seem to apply to companies quoted on the NSE

na wa o!

yodiyokun:
Guys,

where can I get info on which stock closed on net bid or net offer?

The sites I visits for analysis no get that infor!!

Try http://www.firstglobalselect.com/scripts/cgiip.wsc/globalone/htm/country_home.r?vcountry-id=55.com and select the hyperlink Complete Company List and select the company of your choice

Also try www.nigerianstockexchange.com (this is epileptic though especially if you want the Daily Summary)

Try good old cashcraft.com and the Market Anaylsis

easimoni:
C&I is a great company with solid earnings growth potential. Just note that there was a PO in June of 2006 and the total outstanding shares is now 1.60B

cheers for the info

@easimoni
i'm supremely confident they will do >N4B so i guess i`m jumping in.  As we speak 9M units of WEMA shares have already changed hands and we are talking net bid here

@easimoni
of course they are pushing up the price with the raft of good news left right and center they are dishing out into the public domain

@easimoni
A lot is riding  on WEMA for you but i'm sure the results would not be disappointing as a minimum i'm expecting them to double the PAT from N2.2B for YEnd Mar 31 2006  to ~N4B for YEnd Mar 31 2007.

Tmoni:
good news on ACCESS,

AT FORUM MEMBERS, at what time do you think we should exit ACCESS,

not going to get the DANSUGAR bug BITE me again

I'm waiting for the N20 mark not too sure its got a lot go again i still think its a N25 stock in the next 6 months. I bought a lot of the stock when it was N1.65 so i guess i should quit while i'm ahead. Dont like all the business with share reconstruction and there's a lot of convertible debenture and loan and preference stock on their balance sheet. If the holders of the convertible instruments decide to convert it means more dilution!

RoughCut:
That's why it's a speculative and should i add a risky one. If the results are not what its cracked up to be all those millions of shares bought in anticipation will be dumped without looking back and the share price crashes  if on the other hand, i hate to predict the outcome
Already as we speak its traded 9M units already. So i guess its your call

If you have the information you have now regarding Costain and you own the stock would you sell? i dont think so and the scarcity will ensure the stock price remains at the level it is so i suppose if anybody is waiting for a drop i'm not sure its going to happen soon!

yodiyokun:
Costain W.A is gradually inching up.

I placed an order at 21 naira yesterday, I hope they got it ooooooo or else!!!!!.

The unit traded yesterday was just too small Approx 65k , haba!!

I no sabi for WEMA ojare - its btwn the devil and the deep blue sea. IF we wait for financials be4 plugging in and the results are good - it will be too late then to get on the bandwagon. If we get on now and the result isnt impressive -------na loss be that ooo

That's why it's a speculative and should i add a risky one. If the results are not what its cracked up to be all those millions of shares bought in anticipation will be dumped without looking back and the share price crashes  if on the other hand, i hate to predict the outcome
Already as we speak its traded 9M units already. So i guess its your call

shigidi:
@ easimoni,
the berger paints has forecast eps of 0.6. so it should give a 12 naira stock as you rightly pointed out.
the chemicals and paints sector seems to be booming this year.
nigerian german, CAP ,have very solid fundamentals and now so does berger points.
BTW, easi do you know anything about university press limited. it seems to be a BUY recomendation in CSL, meristem , and its pe looks low, whats your take on it

d shigidi is finally awake:-)
_{cant help cracking up with laughter}
Shigidi can you please do a little a cookbook with a list of alternative stocks that we can jump into based on the analysis we make and we agree on that are looking good right now (bank-free zone)

@easimoni
WEMA bank's results are not so rubbish afterall i have cobbled together some figures

Unaudited results for YEnd Mar 31 2006 PAT=N2.2B compared with YEnd Mar 31 2005 PAT=N1B

#Shares Listed 10B(can you double-check this for me?)

Trailing EPS= 0.26 and at the current price of N9.89 that gives a trailing  PE Ratio of  38.9 (expensive)

So when they report in November this year that would be for  YEnd  Mar 31 2007( i assume)

So when they finally get round to reporting in November hopefully the PE will be more affordable and possibly trailing EPS of 70k so excellent

Looks like you have scored a direct hit on this one with your acquisition! I guess they are going to use the much-awaited results in November to push up the share price before they approach the market and with the massive number of the shares changing hands  it is very unlikely the share price will remain in the N9-10 region by the time they go to the market

Well well

The more i keep diging the more i like what i'm finding out about C and I Leasing. They enjoy a virtual monopoly in the leasing space they are the only leasing company listed on the NSE. They have just acquired a majority stake in the most profitable and second biggest leasing company in Ghana.
They have diversified their business operations to include leasing mini containers to Esso Nigeria Ltd and still looking for more clients.
They have also acquired their own vessels which they have leased to three multinational oil exploration companies (they have a more a diversified operational base compared with Japaul Oil still trying to work out the difference between these two)

Apparently they also own the Hertz car rental franchise and they had a massive capital injection of about N1.3B sometime last year so things are looking up for this company

yodiyokun:
Right now, I think I am gradually swaying to @Wanaj0's theory that Banks are no longer the cash cows at least in the nearest future.

We should try to look for gems in other sectors, you never know.

Shoreline that bought the company struck a goldmine, especially as it seems the economy is improving gradually.

My concern however is, does the fundamentals support the market price. And is their change of fortune sustainable ?

I think that is expected when the banks are responsible for 90% of the IPO/PO on the capital market and mopping up the liquidity there is. That cannot be too healthy for the broader economy when there is a concetration of liquidity in a particular sector of the economy.
Anyway back to the issue at hand i will add Nigerian-German Chemicals and C+I Leasing. Looking at the numbers

@Temmie10
So the value of the transactions yesterday is about 6 times what was done day before yesterday and in 407 trades!
chei! when the results are finally released and they look good as a lot of peeps expect i dont want to speculate about what will happen to the share price your guess is as good as mine

@easimoni
so everything rests on WEMA's MD All-important statement in November!

Temmie10:
@roughcut
u're right. 216m naira today as against 36m naira yestada.

@yodiyokun
sad as it sounds, me thinks a professional statement cook is exactly what transcorp needs at this time. They have to find a way to restore condifence and belief in the company.

@mypeace
those two cashcraft funds are 2 new mutual funds that are being launched by cashcraft. the forecasts which might not be met are not ambitous, don't look good except you really are happy with a relatively low return. You'd be better much better off if all you did was listen to easimoni, wanaj0, shigidi, frank, roughcut et al.

36M yesterday!in two days 57M shares of WEMA bank have changed ownership and its on net bid well well what can i say? I rest my case
Nuff said

21M shares of WEMA bank were traded on the NSE just today there is serious and heavy speculation going on here. This is a bank whose EPS is 0.08(one of the lowest in the sector) and EP Ratio 119(highest in sector) and yet the share has appreciated by about 47k today. Talk of a classic case of market irrationality!
Somebody knows something that we don't or at least i don't

easimoni:
If you know how I've been kicking myself for missing this one. Been so focused on banks over the last year that I've taken my eye off several gems. Quick math projects Costain to N40+ by mid 2008 (just look at the forward PE). There isn't much to go on but what there is sure looks promising.

Well well the oracle has spoken!If someone had given me Costain shares even for free in january this year i would probably have told them where to stuff it. I hope the horse has not bolted from the stable. So i think i have got the message NOW

Peeps are taking intrest in Costain(WA) Plc and should i say i wont be surprised if the share price starts inching upwards i think its now N20.46 from N19.49 the lst time i checked. May be this is a BUY signal. Guys let's know what you think

easimoni:
Earnings growth the the fine art of investing. If a company makes N100M in 2006 but makes N75M in the 1st quarter of 2007, do you consider the 75M as an aberration or a sign the company will make N300+M this year? If you choose the former and the 2,3 & 4Qs go back to normal, the company will make 75+25+25+25=150, if the latter, then you have a 200+% growth rate.

If the company has 1B shares and is selling for N5ea, the current (trailing) EPS is 75M + the earnings over the last 3Qs of 2006 = 150M/1B shares = 15K.
Current PE = N5/15k = 33

The forward EPS (if u believe the company will make N300M) is N300/1B = 30k, Forward PE becomes N5/30k = 16.7

THe difficulty is in predicting future earnings. No one can do it with a reasonable degree of success. Several companies have projected well and done poorly while others have projected poorly and released amazing results resulting in a stampede (been watching Costain?)

And dont forget as easimoni said there are other factors that affect share price movements that do not have anything to do with how well the company is doing(fundamentals). Some companies have mastered the art of manipulating share price i mean there are companies that have not declared or released any resûlts that we can look at in the last 3 years and their share prices are skyrocketing(market irrationality) but that should not be your  basis for determining which stocks to invest in. Use the figures you can lay your hands on and financial reports and that way you have  a fairly good idea how well a stock is performing. All these quantitive ratios give us an idea of how the stock is likely to behave at any given point in time(it does not mean that will be the case) so in summary there is no substitute for doing a bit of reasearch and that way you have the info you need  before you make your investment decision
Happy investing!

Here are some numbers to digest for Costain (WA) Plc

Outstanding shares listed:                            159.9M
Current Market price        :                             N19.49
Trailing PE Ratio (YEnd Mar 2007)                  72.19
Trailing  EPS                                                   0.27

Forward PE Ratio (YEnd Mar 2008)                2.85
Forward EPS                                                  0.60

They are hoping to grow their EPS and by extension their PAT by a massive  122%. Already for the first three months of this year (YEnd Mar 2008) the PBT(Profit Before Tax) is N120M  and they grew their turnover from N1.1B  YEnd 2006 to N3B in 2007 a massive 174% leap.
As a minimum i'm expecting the share price to cross the N25 mark(considering the rate at EPS is projected to grow) by the time they report  in March next year.
Going forward this is a good one and deserves the award  for  one of the most improved stocks (share price was N1.46 as at January 2007)  and this was a company that was rapidly going into terminal decline until it was rescued by Shoreline Power company. They have also changed their business strategy by concentarting on contracts from the private sector a strategy which seems to have paid off. All their recently awarded contracts are from the private sector.
The contracts on their order books are in excess of N5.5B and in the last 24 months they have invested N1B in capital/equipment and in the next 12 months it is planned that a further N2.5B will be invested in operating assets and they hope to start paying dividends in the next 12 months
The parent company has also committed to recruiting 170 graduates every year in their quest to become the biggest engineering conglomerate in Africa. These are sentiments the market and investors alike  like to hear.

They are planning a PO(not sure but very soon)

This is a stock you might want to watch!

walcolm:
don't quote me but i will suggest you cautiously put in some money.

you might not get the spectacular returns you're presently dreaming about if they do what dunlop did (delayed release of certificates ). what that means is that you will not be able to take advantage of the initial price surge because your shares are not in the CSCS yet

As with any investment cautious is the word. We can conclude on a long-term basis Japaual Oil is a good stable and solid stock and very good potentials for the upside to buy into depending on your investment strategy and horizon if you are looking for something spectacular on a short-term basis then may be not that was not the intention of the analysis i did earlier.
I hope this has answered your questions and cleared up any doubts

wanaj0:
Never liked UBA management. From Bello-Osagie to Tony Elumelu, I am suspicious of them. For me UBA has no unique selling point. Will not complain though. Made some huge profit from it. But will never be my LONG term holding.

Oceanic is well positioned so should do well on the LONG run. Above 30.00, Oceanic is pricey so if you wnat to speculate, just look for 25% return or thereabout.

WEMA is risky. Bought @<4.00 this year so I can ride the tide. If the result is as expected, WEMA should reach 15.00. If the planned offer go ahead, then WEMA should reach 20.00. If expectations are not met, WEMA will be around 6.00.

So based on your rsk profile, make a decision.

Yeah bought  a lot of Oceanic during the PO(should have bought more) so i will wait for the  post-suspension bull  and bear run and then take the opportunity when people are dumping to acquire some more and DEFINITELY a long-term hold for me. It just looks attractive and stable
On UBA i think earlier this year they were involved  in a money laundering scam and i think they were fined millions of dollars by New York financial regulators so your take on the management style is spot-on  let`s just say i' don't regret not taking a position as such

wanaj0:
Well, you need to take and look at each company on its own merits.

WAPCO will not grow turnover that much. However they should grow profit based on the debt restructuring and improved efficiency. For half year, the profit margin was affected by gas supply disruption due to the ND crisis. Line is now fixed with gas supply restored so expect improvement in the second half of the year.

On Ashaka, similar problems. LPFO was not available so could not produce at full capacity. Hence expect a drop in turnover and profit. Trying to do some improvements on the plant. The only good thing about ASHAKA, is the huge cash reserve. So they may still be able to give 'fairly good' dividend even in the face of dwindling profit.

CCNN, for is a no no until it goes to 10.00 or thereabout.

IBETO has nothing to do with the cement industry in Nigeria. Ibeto is a marginal player. Total capacity is 1.5m tonnes. That is not enough to affect the market in the scheme of things. All the noise made by IBETO is nothing but propaganda.

From your  analysis i can conclude like almost everyone else cement stocks are not looking as rosy as we would  like and if the market is flooded with imported  cement then that's it. Apparently there is a very powerful lobby going on to make sure this does not happen(whose interest shareholders or ordinary folks who need to have cement prices at a reasonable level) so the geo-political situation does not augur well for cement stocks at the moment
Looks like i'm staying clear too much shenanigans for my liking

wanaj0:
I am not a fan of any stock really.

On Dangote Sugar, at 40.00, I will let it pass. However at 31.00 (30% discount) that is a bargain. The discussion was held when dangote was 40.00 - 42.00 range and people were still expecting further appreciation. For me, that was a no no. But it 31.00, it is a MUST BUY. At 40.00 - 42.00 it is a HOLD/SELL depending on your strategy.

I prefer Oceanic to UBA. Never trusted UBA one bit!!!!!!

Even when the entry price for UBA was about N35 it was not an option for me  although may be i should have bought then but it was expensive  even then considering the P/E ratio. So Oceanic is it for me and possibly WEMA(speculative i dare say but looks like there's real dosh to be made still crunching numbers) but it looks cheap at the moment .Although it doesnt help they havent released anything close to a proper result in about 3 years so watching and waiting

yodiyokun:
Wanaj0
I thought you were not a fan of Dansugar - I recall you saying somewhere else that its not a growth stock and not suitable for capital appreciation.

Any reason for the change of mind.

Easimoni,

I know it I buy either Oceanic /UBA, its to sit tight on it , thats why I am looking for suggestions. I am tired of my money sitting with my broker ojare.

Those who bought into the PO for Oceanic @ N16 back in April have now made a paper profit of almost 100% so hopefully the cert should soon be out and you can expect a lot of peeps who bought into the PO to start taking profit and obviously share price slides and that would be the best time for you to dive into oceanic just pray that the share price does not trend downward before the certs are out. I'm sure you realsie if the price remains at the present level or higher when certs come out there will surely be a mad scramble to offload once peeps realise they have made 100% returns on their stake
So there you go