₦airaland Forum

You're starting to become incoherent - when face with facts.

For example - Bungoma - Ruto has Weta and entire Ford-K crew. In 2017 - thanks to Speaker Lusaka - they improved from 12% in 2013 to 24-30% in 2017. All opinion polls shows Ruto has flipped Bungoma and Tranzoia.

Example 2 - Machakos - Ruto has Muthama & has retained Mutua - and this time round Kalonzo is not Raila DPORK - there a lot of disaffection in Ukambani - the usual 90 is impossible.

I have added more data - showing this election is a repeat of last time - prepare for premium tears.

StivoH2022:
We're using the nullified election as a base but it's OK just for argument

Uhuruto got 12% in Bungoma,10% in Machakos...meaning Ruto should get 35% for you to say he has added 25%...which is not possible remember how hard they tried in vain back in 2017

Sometimes all you need is an excel.

I have analyzed - and assumed Ruto & Raila gains 25% from each of these top 10 strongholds. Although we know Ruto will gain more - but also Mt kenya generally turn out more.

Conclusion. Raila get a million more votes. Raila loses a million votes. Ruto loses 1 million votes. Raila gains a million votes.

What remain - the 1.5M gap we had in 2017 - Raila has to increase his votes by 800K - to beat Ruto by 100K. I hope you follow the logic.

So for Raila to close the gap - he still need another a million vote to beat Ruto by 100K votes.That is 50% of Mt Kenya - WE KNOW THAT IS IMPOSSIBLE - and therefore we know he CANNOT WIN

StivoH2022:
The issue is how many votes does those counties have?
Kikuyus/Gema have almost 6m votes across the country.

....while the entire western have 2m, Coast 1.9m, Eastern 1.9m...Uhuruto got a good percentage from it...while Raila got almost zero in Mt Kenya

They will even be more biased - it's called a civil war.

StivoH2022:
They were biased...I was there during the whole PEV

Gain 25% in Mt kenya (10 counties) - Lose 25% in Western, Ukambani & Coast (5,3,4)...end of day..you're doing nothing.
Raila will gain in 10 counties in Mt Kenya & possibly 2 Gusii Counties (12) -
Ruto will gain in 13 counties by even bigger margins (as some have completely flipped) - Bungoma, Tranzoia, Kakamega, Vihiga, Busia,Machakos,Makueni,Kitui, Taita Taveta, kwale, Mombasa & Kilifi.
The Northern Kenya - From Turkana to Mandera remain 50-50 game - and they have very few votes.

StivoH2022:
This is true....and if Raila gets 25% of kikuyu votes he'll definitely win

Where was the mighty gov in 2007.

StivoH2022:
Hahaaa what are you trying to say here....that the government can be defeated by some primitive villagers with arrows

Kenya politics - desperate Raila now put opinion polls on billboard. This must a first in the world. This level of desperation is hilarious

Kenya politics is personality driven. Nigeria parties are ahead of kenya. We have new parties every election. Uhuru did not want to share power - especially after 1st term experience. Ruto is very forcefully and in their first term - got perhaps 60-70% of power - while Uhuru is habitually drunk.

So the 2nd term - Uhuru knowing it was final term - he want to monopolize power - so he had to kick Ruto out - by bringing Raila without sharing the pie. Raila is easy to please idiot - given fake AU job and few outriders - he was happy.

At some point Uhuru thought he is too young to retire - and wanted to ammend the constitution to expand executive - get prime minister - so he can go for it.It failed...and now he is Azimio Chairman - in 50-50 coalition with Raila - except his own Mt kenya people have rejected his moves.

68816419:
Even if Ruto loses, I will still respect him for fighting the battle on his own, with minimal help from his official political party.
But if I may ask, why may Uhuru Kenyatta have abruptly deserted Ruto without taking into account the repercussions for his own party?

Sure I wont forget this. On Tuesday night, I will be here Inshallah. Just out of curiosity how did you calculate 57%?

It very easy maths. Raila had is 2017 base - 45% - Ruto had is Jubilee base 55% - now Raila start -10% - or well 5% to hit 50%.

If he was smart - he'd retain NASA stronghold - and go for that 6% in Mt kenya - and he'd be home and dry.

But he istn't - he has hammorrage western , coast, ukambani - some by 20-30% - others have completely flipped.

In short - we are back to 2017 - because while Raila went hunting in former jubilee zones - Ruto similarly went hunting in NASA zones - the gains cancel each other.

68816419:
I am familiar with tribal calculations in Kenya because I have lived there. According to my understanding, Ruto and Odinga will each receive a portion of the Kikuyus and Mount Kenya regions, while Raila would receive at least 80% of the votes cast in Kisumu and the surrounding counties. And don't forget that Raila has consistently prevailed in Kenya's coastal region; nothing would change this time.
Therefore, the elections would now be won and decided by these smaller counties. Don't forget the "Martha effect," which is the fact that most Kenyan women and her tribal people support Kikuyu lawyer Martha Karua as his running partner.

That impressive considering intimidation Uhuru pulled to stop the rally - and this new ground Ruto is making - because Mombasa and entire coast was pro-Raila. Now it's a battleground.

68816419:
Wacthing RUTO's Mega rally at the same time

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AwD7TavZww

Okay 57 percent from where. You certainly dont understand the tribal arithmetic of kenya.

Ruto is perceived to be corrupt - because first he cut his teeth in the very corrupt regime of Moi - he has new money - and isnt afraid to flaunt it.

Ruto being very smart and ambitious learnt in Moi era that Kenya politics was TRIBE AND BRIBE. Just like in Uganda you need a AK47 - in Kenya you better have money - people dont respect poor folks. That is why Sonkos, Johos, almost entire leadership is full of thugs, drug dealers, conmen - MONEY SPEAKS.

If Ruto didnt have bottomless pockets of money - he'd already be dead now after Uhuru betrayed him, send entire gov machinery to crush him and worked with entire opposition. Ruto had to literally rain money, have politician on weekly retainer, and have entire church on M-pesa mobile money every sunday.

Once Ruto get PORK - he wont need to accumulate money - nobody will challenge him political for a decade plus - and he will transform kenya because he very smart, very hardworking and very gifted.

68816419:
Since he is too elderly and doesn't comprehend current development trends, I would prefer that he didn't win, but it appears quite unlikely that he won't loose. In my opinion, Raila will prevail with 57 percent of the total votes.
I can see why the majority of Somalis would support Ruto, but why do most of my Kenyan friends believe Ruto to be far more corrupt than Raila?

You definitely never heard of Kalenjin (Nandi) resistance that lasted 15yrs against the mighty British - from 1890 to 1895 - ending with cold blood murder of the military and religious leader Koitalel Samoei.

The British were so impressed by Nandi resistance they took the skull of Koitalel. The Brits could believe how savages armed with bows and arrows could beat them - for 15yrs.

One particularly shocking case is that of the skull of Nandi chief Koitalel Arap Samoei. He fought against Britain’s railway project through his land and in 1905 was shot dead by British colonel Richard Meinertzhagen. Samoei’s body was decapitated and the head taken to London.

chrisooblog:
Get off your high horse dude. The Vietnamese Army and Vietcong battled against and overcame the might of the American Army, while you're here beating your chest because your ancestors were playing hide and seek with the brits


I have more respect for Ashanti and Zulu armies that faced British soldiers head on in battle with lesser weapons and sometimes won.

That is the home ground of the perennial loser - which US embassy has already declared no go zone - because they know Odinga is heading for a loss and those people will be inconsolable come wednesday

68816419:
I am really enjoying this Finale LIVE Raila Odinga Rally in Kisumu

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8f-Ssi_Jct8

Kalenjin are the most prepared of them all - because every male - at his mid teens is taken through a rudimentary military training -in the forest for a month now coz of schools (my father went for six month - my grandfather a year - I took 1.5months - a military bootcamp where you trained to make weapons and fight )- the rest really is to upgrade or not upgrade their weapons. Those that have guns like Pokots - though just few hundrends - are tough nuts.

Now imagine nearly a million of 18-30yrs old (active warrior ageset) already trained on basic warfare against kenya gov entire force of mere 100k. In 2007 - it took 48hrs to evict 0.6m people leading Ruto wrongly to ICC for crimes against humanity - gov embarrassed by their ineffectiveness created a fake story that Ruto had organized and trained warriors - total falsehood.

Now they want to sent water canoons - like someone in kalenjinland will be demonstrating in the streets - nope - if war occur kalenjin will fight almost exclusively at night.

ItooWorWor:
Afgan is a different case they are already battle tested against the soviet and are well armed than machete wielding Kalenjin, they havr cells all over Afagan while Kalenjin are restricted to the Rift Valley, in the case of war the where all Kalenjin are unified like you said they will be beating black and blue by KDF.


Tigray had decades of preparation advantage.



the Houthi in Yemeni are more armed than most Africa country.


Somali is a den of terrorist from every corner so you can't compare it to Kenya were just a section of the country decides to go on a suicide mission.


Talking of Boko haram , terrorism is different from what you are implying with Kalenjin unified war. If the entire Borno or Kanuris where to declare war on Nigeria, I can bet my left balls they won't last a month.

Fact remain the land you took belong to weakest of Africa races - the cape of good to namibia - very weak khoisans - who just hunt and gather.
After 500yrs in Africa - of course you're better harden that weak white race.
White race is very very weak - remove the weapon advantage - the white race leading soft life cannot fight.
So I can understand when white race see you as their warriors.
But you struggled against Zulus.
And now you mostly took the land of the Bush-men.
And British came - colonized you - until recently.

jl115:
my bru the Boere invented modern guerrilla tactics.... The fvcking word commando is an Afrikaans word now recognised worldwide and used synonymously with elite forces around the world..... While the Kalenjin still used sticks and stones to fight wars, the Boere took on half a million British troops that out numbered them 15-1 and beat them black and blue in 2 wars.

"Give me 20 divisions American soldiers and I will breach Europe. Give me 15 consisting of Englishmen, and I will advance to the borders of Berlin. Give me two divisions of those marvellous fighting Boers and I will remove Germany from the face of the earth." "

- Field Marshall B L Montgomery

"The Americans fight for a free world, the English mostly for honor and glory and medals, the French and Canadians decide too late that they have to participate. The Italians are too scared to fight; the Russians have no choice. The Germans for the Fatherland. The Boers? Those sons of bitches fight for the hell of it."

-American General, George Patton

"Take a community of Dutchmen of the type of those who defended themselves for fifty years against all the power of Spain at a time when Spain was the greatest power in the world. Intermix with them a strain of those inflexible French Huguenots, who gave up their name and left their country forever at the time of the revocation of the Edict of Nantes . The product must obviously be one of the most rugged, virile, unconquerable races ever seen upon the face of the earth. Take these formidable people and train them for seven generations in constant warfare against savage men and ferocious beasts, in circumstances in which no weakling could survive; place them so that they acquire skill with weapons and in horsemanship, give them a country which is eminently suited to the tactics of the huntsman, the marksman and the rider. Then, finally, put a fine temper upon their military qualities by a dour fatalistic Old Testament religion and an ardent and consuming patriotism. Combine all these qualities and all these impulses in one individual and you have the modern White Boer."

-Sir Arthur Conan Doyle

I didn't say anything about your people, so don't come here and think you can talk down to mine my bru especially when history clearly shows otherwise

What is Somali or Afganis doctrine of war . It starts and ends with the mettle the people are made of - not everyone has the stomach for war and bloodshed - but some do. You gotta understand your enemy. If the Boer landed in middle of Sahara - it wont have lasted a month. It picked the easiest target of bush-men - weakest of african races - that bantus overrun from Nigeria to south africa without any resistance.

Kalenjin dominate marathons because we are made of sterner stuff - we can withstand pain. Just small section of kalenjin pokot - KDF fears them - the police just go there and hide

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mniw4_O6CZs&t=59s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUoLXbCaCrc&t=378s

jl115:
actually its just doctrine

Warfare is fought by humans. Go to Afgan - and like NATO - spent trillions - they fail. Go to Somalia. Go to Tigray. There are regions you cannot win. Nigeria you're still struggling in the north of your country. Saudi Arabia is struggling against Yemen despite buying every weapon they see

Before you go to modern warfare - and weapons - it start and ends with the human. The harden human living in arid pastoral areas are not easy to battle...like group of farmers. That is a start. Afganis, Yemenis, Somalis, Tigrayans, Kalenjin and others are warriors that can dig in and fight you despite the weapons you bring in.

ItooWorWor:
Someone here don't know how modern warfare works






NTSA just don't waste your time

Ruto just ended his press conference - message is clear - it's over for Uhuru and his project Raila. The Azimio project has totally collapsed.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fg8GKOyDzwY

You cannot win and you cannot govern.

https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/william-ruto-the-chicken-seller-turned-presidential-hustler--3902578

"Ruto is seen by many people to be one of the most effective strategists in Kenyan politics," said Nic Cheeseman, a political scientist at the University of Birmingham.

"He's someone with extensive experience of running campaigns, performing very well in campaigns, of seeing politics from both sides. He stood with Odinga, he stood with Kenyatta, he knows most of these figures intimately well, he knows their strengths and weaknesses."

You underrate one thing. Kalenjin is a very well militarily organized society - and the movement will be swift - you wont know what hit you - it will be a flash - and same way for KDF - it will just happen very fast - and before you know you've lost the war. Most others would need months to prepare. Kalenjin turn into war infrastructure very fast - you should ask those with first hand experience. There is definitely nothing like that in East Africa - where within 2hours the entire society transform into war machine - all they need is for Ruto to declare war - get into a plane - and go to exile. You wont get time to escape...within 2hours...entire Kalenjin will be lockdown.

I honestly dont think kenya bantus or Luos have the stomach for wars! They dont. For every Kalenjin KDF will kill - Kalenjin will simply kill many civilians.Kalenjin will be get free roaming ground in pastoral areas.

Its upon Uhuru and his fools to realize this war they cannot win. He started it in 2018 and I remember warning him he was going to end badly.

Ruto will win - and will proceed to destroy Kenyatta & Moi empire. Those are not negotiable. They can negotiate jail free card but money & land is gone.

This Farah Maalim was brave to say it as it - Kalenjin and Ruto are not people you want to rig out - DO NOT EVEN THINK ABOUT IT.

2007 was just kalenjin helping poor Raila and Luo from being massacred - but to steal Kalenjin mean you dont love kenya.

Should be compulsory listening to all the scared fools who want to make kenya a war zone

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwlnehSIVaI

NTSA:
It wouldn't be that easy for Kdf disintegrate and if it would happen only Kalenjin officers "leave "....infact just like it happened in tigray most of them in barracks away from home would be disarmed and held in special prisons by the military.

A civil war would be a war against kalenjins and it would be an extremely dirty
Neighbouring communities would be baying for blood, Kalenjin Warriors would be fighting on multiple fronts you would be on the defensive in a two week's time .That's why the warriors would retreat to the deep interiors that is forests, valleys and Gorge's.

The fighting capacity would be reduced to lowscale hit and run tactics on Kdf patrol units just like alshabaab or pokot does.

Large scale battalion level assault on Kdf positions would not be possible since they would try to avoid mass fatalities and wouldn't match the firepower.
Airstrikes and helicopter gun runs would further cause havoc while preventing them from massing up huge number of warriors at one place .
The rest of the country would still remain largely functional.


In the next few months women and children would be forced into protected villages (essentially concentration camps) denying the warriors much needed supplies like food etc. remember this has been the strategy during the shifta and the maumau wars.

Even if Uganda supplied arms essentially AKs and G3s in the longrun it wouldn't be sustainable for them since most of their trade would be affected .


Fyi don't compare previous inter-tribal conflicts where your main objective is to chase other unarmed communities from your areas with a military level conflict. in this case it wouldn't be a military intervention like it happens in Somalia ,Rules of engagement would change .
But anyways.. Ruto is taking this one and Kenya will be prosperous he is the only man with a plan.
No fighting will happen.

Ethiopia lost Eritrea and are losing Tigray because few armies are ever prepared to fight a civil war. Actually none is.
Kalenjin are the ultimate guerrilla warfare force - they will fight a insurgency war - the whole kalenjin war philosophy is built on that.
Nandi held the Brits for 15yrs because they fight at middle of the night - day time skirmishes are left for small boys.
The real war start at midnight and end at 3 am. The rest of the day is intelligence gathering.
Kalenjin are very disciplined, organized and very efficient - when they get an opportunity they hit you with devastating consequences, when advantage swing your way, they avoid loses.
The entire RV has forests, gorges, rifts, and all sort of terrain to assist.
The entire community are united in a cause.
Those are very important key strength.
KDF will be left to throw bombs and drones on maize fields....

Anyway this for me is how the cookie crumbles.
Kalenjin versus police/azimio supporters - that end very shortly in 48hours.
I estimate at least a 1-2 million panicked folks just scampering for safety - near Kalenjin.
Kalenjin similarly outside RV - will be trying to get back home.
That already causes an international crisis - of IDPS and refugees.

Panicked gov calls in KDF to bolster police efforts.
That result into a civil war.
Kenya economy at that point has gone to the dogs.
At that point it's who is feared the most - Kalenjin or remnant of KDF.
Do kalenjin go for seccession war or go for Nairobi.
That depends on Kikuyu support - if there is kikuyu support - they will go for Nairobi.
If there is no support - they will kick out non-natives in RV - and go for secession.

Both sides likely to negotiate because I dont see how KDF can succeed without local support.
Kalenjin will be very united.
Kenya economy will be very weak.

In short - Kenyans will be begging for peace in a month.

We might get new constitution based on federalism and new election - otherwise by then military will be running things.

Only way war can be avoided if we have crisis in a week is for united KDF to take over from civilians - if KDF waits and splits - they are done - kenya is done.

NTSA:
Police posts are just mere structures with 5 to 10 officers ,a few G3 s and Aks and they can easily be overrun.
In a "hypothetical "all out war, kalenjin militias would cause havoc against local communities and police stations after which a Military seige would start due to the fact they would be surrounded on almost all fronts. This would then turn into another guerilla insurgency.

Even if all kalenjin officers defected ,Most critical military installation like airbases, Artillery units,Tank units etc would remain intact due to their location hence Kdf will always have upperhand ..
The case in tigray was different due to the fact that TDF had conventional army capabilities they had amased for a long time most military installations were in the tigray region.

Omunyala win 100m gold medal in commonwealth. This hopefully is start of kenya dominance in short races

I know KDF capability - fighting outsiders - I know KDF incapability fighting internal enemy like Kalenjin. First no Kalenjin in army will accept to fight their own people pursuing just cause. So first understand you'll get Ethiopia civil war - where Tigray simply desert - with weapons or not.
First police - GSU or APS - simply cannot handle Kalenjin warriors armed with rudimentary weapons - leave alone guns.
KDF the same - if it comes to gun fight - they will run.
So that leave Kenya having to bomb maize fields and forests

Underrate Kalenjin war machine at you own peril. I have seen it up close and personal twice - 92 when I was small boy and 2007 when I was older. How kalenjin can turn one minute from peace to war machinery is incredible.

The British saw it in 1890 to 1906 - just small band of Nandi about 2,000 men - fighting for 15yrs - at some point against entire East Africa Brits army then. And without cold blood murder of Koitatel under the guise of peace negotiation - Nandi would probably have been left alone as independent state.

Again unless you're prepared for a long drawn war - when economy is already sick - then pray for Kenya.

Heck without internal support of GEMA - I think war will end easily - because Kikuyus will join in

In short - Uhuru had better pray we have very free and fair election - if Ruto loses fairly - I dont see any problem.

Sending water cannons hoping to scare kalenjin has to be most laughable thing he has done so far. He needs to sober up, allow Chebukati to hand certificate to Ruto, negotiate bankruptcy proceedings as their wealth has to be nationalized, go to exile in shame and spend the money they have abroad.

I dont see any other peaceful resolution to the stalemate.

NTSA:
Overstatement ...seems you are ignoring the simple concept of force multiplication ,density of Fire and manuaver warfare.

Ruto is calling for an international press conference tomorrow - like I said - unless you're a slowpoke - keep your passport and your family very intact. What I know for a fact - Ruto cannot and wont be rigged without dire consequence. The dire consequence will be end of kenya as we know. I am not sure what extend he will go - but I know Museveni and Kiir are on board Ruto - and will be very happy to provide arms - if shiet was to hit the fan. Kalenjin warriors are ever prepared - just waiting for the signal from Ruto - to get started - and in an hour - they will transform into a fighting force - that police will not contain.

It's upon Uhuru to accept to be liquidated - otherwise he will just mess kenya. Uhuru had better accept to be bankrupted in Kenya, go to exile abroad and keep the pandora money. He took war to wrong guys - and he has to accept the consequences without taking everyone down with him.

Taking water cannon to Kalenjin land - he must be out of his mind.

For this will be Ethiopia or South Sudan scenario playing out.

Didnt Kibaki unleash KDF in Nakuru....when police split into factions?
Kalenjin warriors evicted 0.6M people in 48hrs - something that left even the US totally astonished.
Kibaki had to share power because after KDF from Lanet were deployed - the next was the END of KENYA.
Because once KDF split into factions - we are kaput - and they will because the tribal contours are huge.

Moi and Ruto have managed not to escalate the Kalenjin into a fighting force - except for small section around Pokot.
Can police or KDF beat Pokot - even now - NOPE. They struggle mightly.
When some few SLDF were armed - possibly 1,000 people with 100 guns - Kenya Police failed to contained them.
It took the intervention of KDF - to quash them.

Now imagine if Ruto was to provide kalenjin proper with say 10,000 guns and bullets.
If they did - by simply providing such light weapons.
Kenya is kaput kaput.

The reason is obvious - KDF plus kenya police - at best can raise 25K plus 75K - say 100K fighters(1/4 of them I bet are kalenjin) - Kalenjin the way the community is wired can easily raise a million fighters - rudimentary trained - but with two months of training can become as good as kDF

The power matrices changes completely.

Read Waki report....

“lots of serious coordination and logistics
put in place for the warriors to approach Eldoret town from all directions at the
same time”, noting that in his area he observed over 5,000 in one go and that
they smeared themselves with the blood of the victims they had killed. He said
that friends who were under attack and called him from other areas observed
large bands of between 5,000- 7,000 youths approaching from Burnt Forest.

NOw imagine one front has 7,000 forces (give them guns) - entire KDF has 25K force - significant numbers are kalenjin in that security sector - you'd have to unleash bombs/drones/rockets to even out things.

Kenya police simply collapsed in 48hrs and became IDP centers. They couldnt move because all roads were blocked in 24hours.

NTSA:
At times you exaggerate too much

Kenya not going Nigeria way - Ruto's billboard on what Raila leadership means - the guy can barely stay awake

Choice has never been clear - a brilliant 55yr old going for his maiden run & win - versus a senile 78 yr old going for his 5th (6th if you include 1982 coup) loss

If we exclude Discovery Research and Strategic Africa - this how it looks like now.

MzeeMwenyewe1:
Tifa polls Raila 49% Mwizi 41%

It's very sad that desperate president knowing he is getting liquidated next week want to plunge the country into violence and civil war - then next week they will be crying and begging Ruto to stop Kalenjin - and descent into civil war.

Look like they never learn. They we will hear cries for international community to intervene. Right now Kalenjin are sitting pretty because they just need an hour - to mobilize - it's almost 7 million people to such a fighting force - a civil war will be inevitable in a week.

"“The Kalenjins just like many other
pastoralist communities tend to be militarily organized and can respond to
perceived threats in an organized manner. This rapid and organized reaction is
what most people have confused for pre-planning of violence.”
"Variances of the “Kalenjin
culture” theory aimed to explaining some cultural predilection of Kalenjins to
engage in warfare were offered by a former Rift Valley PPO when, answering the
question whether violence in North Rift was spontaneous or planned. He told the
Commission that the violence was probably spontaneous because “the Kalenjins
require just a war cry... They don’t need to plan. You injure one kalenjin they respond immediately"

In 5 days - we will know which opinion pollster are credible or not - I think we can generally agree that it very hard to corrupt or rig IEBC election.

Obiano13:
Forget the fake opinion polls commissioned by Mwizi to save face. Out of the pollsters below IPSOS is likely to be the mos correct, they predicted 2017 better than the rest.



FYI riot police trucks are being ferried to your homeland, the defacto new opposition stronghold of Kalenjin Rift Valley where tantrums are expected next week after your son is politically emasculated. Enyewe Mungu Si Kipmeno!

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-08-02-state-deploys-additional-security-in-parts-of-rift-valley/

Ruto has no chance of fomenting chaos next week. He is headed behind bars at Kamiti Maximum where he can cry for weeks on end with no interruption.

Kalenjin - and water canon; What for . Kalenjin are not going to start any war until this over; I dont think you understand how disciplined and well organized our people are. The day Ruto says start. You'll see kenya police shaking in their booths.

Like in 2007 - Kalenjin will take 24-48 hours to overrun police from Mt Elgon to Nakuru town - from West Pokot to Narok - and the army will be deployed on 3rd day - and then civil war will start.

Our people are laughing at those jokes. Those ones should be taken to Kisumu - to deal with stones throwing.

For Kalenjin - you need to prepare KDF - kenya police cannot handle anything - kalenjin are going to deploy millions of warriors who will fight at night - during the day they will be resting - at middle of the night they go for the police - what will those things help you If Kalenjin get 10k guns - Kenya is over and done with. Those 10K guns can hold the KDF until it's split into factions.

Dont even think of waking the monster that is Kalenjin warriors - in the day and age when Ruto has almost cult like following. You just want kenya to join failed states.

Obiano13:
Police Water cannon trucks being ferried to RVP's homeland of Kalenjin Rift Valley to quell expected chaos after their kingpin, a known thief and murderer is beaten

@RVP If you see this parked around your hood, just behave.

Weeeh! Police water cannons trucks transported. pic.twitter.com/vw7WCdg1T2

— Kawangware Finest ™ - Geoffrey Moturi (@cbs_ke) August 2, 2022

Dont sweat it. We have 5 days to go. We will comeback and see if NIS were right. What is more concerning is to see desperate ODM trying to incite hate in RV - I think deep state has given up - and now Junet-Joho shallow ODM state has taken over - printing leaflets,deploying police and releasing edited hate videos.

MzeeMwenyewe1:
Kenya has gone to the dogs, you mean there are people who take Moses Kuria words as nuggets of wisdom The person who laughed at the death of Chris Musando, the man who flushes middle fingers in rallies.

When did NIS conduct and release those polls. Bring their website, if you can't puliz spare the international readers the misinformation. I know you are desperate to find credibility but this is too low for you.

Let's see look like Kenya's National Intelligence Services - duly informed the CIA - where premium tears will be loading - Kisumu - not the neigberhouring county of Kericho - where I call home . In Kericho we will be drinking non stop for a week

What Ruto has done is astounding - beating combined gov and opposition is no joke.

MzeeMwenyewe1:
The kind of shock awaiting you is unimaginable, for now enjoy yourself on Nairaland.

And mine is every more adverse for your side. You wont be laughing next week.
My prediction is 55 percent win for Ruto - and Raila will 44 percent.
I am predicting UDA will win half counties, senators and women rep.
UDA will also win 150Mps - bringing total 180Mps.
Now add Ford-K/ANC/Small parties - you're starring at a disaster

MzeeMwenyewe1:
My response

I have seen two opinion polls of Mombasa - showing Sarai dramatic rise. So it's not just Mizani. Mike Sonko broke the Joho& coastal cabal bottle and got the genie (jinis ) out. You cannot bottle it back. The Wabaras(upcountry) are now incited and they want nothing to do with Joho and his project Abdulnassir. Sarai is very lucky man.

MzeeMwenyewe1:
Mizani has lost the little credibility they have when they say Sarai will trounce Abdulswamad. The reason they're citing is because of sonko who decamped 2 days ago
Though I am biased but let me tell you Maina there's no competition between the two, we the Mombasa people cancelled Sarai long time ago. Any other person other than him could give ODM a run for their money but Sarai.. HELL NO!