₦airaland Forum

Yet Sakaja a kalenjin is going to become Nairobi governor and we have Kalenjin Mp in Nairobi. You need to update yourself. Kalenjin are everywhere - just not that many in slums yet. If you go to any university - they are the majority.

StivoH2022:
The Kenyan Bantus don't like war maybe because they're more civilised most live in urban centres and have interacted with each other....
The Kalenjins are still stuck in old way of life and thinking....you can easily spot them out in Nairobi and they're not more than 2k

When was Raila in the system . Ruto is the SYSTEM - he was in Moi's kitchen cabinet, run Uhuru first term, and even now has intelligence and counter-intelligence. This is how you win election - by foiling gov rigging plans. Raila has failed before because he was blind to gov activities. Ruto has invested in parrallel intelligence that knows everything that Uhuru ate for lunch and will have for supper. Once you do that...you can beat gov..and opposition combined...like Ruto has done for 5yrs. Just 72 hours to go.

StivoH2022:
Ruto is still learning...the only thing he have is "big mouth" ....Raila understand the systems a hundred times better than Ruto

Thankfully they have. This week desperate Uhuru tried to incite tribal clashes - by you can imagine - writting leaflets warning his own kikuyu people - to vote for Ruto or be attacked - then they deployed paramilitary police on the kalenjin-kikuyu "hotspots" - and their plan was to burn a few kikuyu and kalenjin homes - to spark tribal clashes - so they wont vote for Ruto.

This akin to Moi in 1992 - because Moi wanted to evict a million of immigrants from Rift valley so they wont vote. So what do you do - spark tribal clashes - have a million people killed, raped, injured, properties burnt - and they are displaced. Coming voting day - you have reduced the opponent voting block.

This was one of Uhuru card - apart from many others.

US gov issued advisory saying Kisumu(Raila home) was likely place for violence not rift valley - and that killed their hate propaganda and attempt to incite violence.

What has helped is that Kikuyu community have refused to be pawns of Uhuru Kenyatta and have totally rejected him. The message for Uhuru and his elite has been simple....if there is any war you want....take your kids to the frontline.

This is why I think we will have peace.

So far so good - they failed. I have just seen kenya top security official talking like rained on cats. I hope they called out rest of their rigging and sabotage plans.

Elections if they are free and fair - Kenya will be very very okay. If gov interferes brazenly - then we get a civil war.

Just40:
Politicians never learn from anything... Citizens are the ones who create the atmosphere for politicians to learn.

Ghanian Justice Akilano Molade Akiwumi. was appointed to probe 1992 tribal clashes. Apparently no lessons were learnt. 2007 happened - another commission Waki - and then International Criminal Court - and now in 2022 - we are trudging along to civil war because the GOV of Kenya is irresponsibly playing with election against a community that are like Somalis - and will fight you.

All I do is provide people with early warning so they are aware of the upheavals.

Just40:
Thank you....

I can't believe, people are openly advocating for violence over an election..

Personally I dont want war. In 2007 - I spent all the time escaping and hidding from being conscripted to fight in that violence. They were people moving house to house checking to see if anybody had remained at home who should be out fighting - if you ageset was active warrior group. Eventually I was evacuated by my employer after they charted a flight. Learn from 2007 and never allow yourself to be caught on the offside.

Again you need to understand Kalenjin are not folks who fear war with anybody. Not even the police. In 2007 all prov adminstration were destroyed - some DOS and Chief killed - policemen too.

So you're right Kalenjin, Somalis and Maasai have the same mentality - they are warlike - meaning they see war or fighting as normal activity - in fact before arrival of Brits - a kalenjin man did nothing except fight, go raid for cattle - and all that - when they were active warrior group - so taking war to them is just going back to way things were before the British civilization.

Maasai have Morans, Kalenjin Murenik, Somalis Mooryan. The same word. This specialization of having a standing military ageset.

I suggest you familiraize yourselves with 1992 - Kalenjin attacked Luo, kikuyus, Gusii and Luhyas simultaneously. Luos are very smart of all tribes - they normally the first to raise white flag and havent been massacred in any number. They know the ferocity of kalenjin and will never allow a war with kalenjin to last a day.

In 1992..I was young - I use to listen to BBC radio then - there was nothing on KBC then - it would be "Kabila la ndogo la Moi versus other tribes".

StivoH2022:
Seems like you want war or something � �
Most Kalenjins are just like Kenyan Somalis who pretend that they are against terrorism while they enjoy inside them...this is one of the reasons while Ruto should/will not be the president until he matures

Most Kalenjins have nothing to lose since almost all of them are in their native place...but the question is who are you going to attack if not Kikuyus

2007 you had a backup of Luos and almost all other tribes that's even the police took sides...this time don't dare

Kenya opinion polls have never gotten any election or referendum right. That you can ask anyone or Mr Google. They have very bad reputation.

Ruto is head and shoulder above Raila - not only because of age - but pretty much everything else - brains, energy, managerial skills, oratory skills, leadership skills.

Moi was my tribes man and I didnt support him even a single day. Ruto was supporting Moi and our political paths met in 2005 when Kibaki had disappointed me - and we supported Raila in 2007.

I personally started noticing Ruto in 2001 - and I remember telling my college friend - this guy will become president - and I am not surprised that he just hours from becoming one. Ruto is gifted salesman or propagandist. I notice him because he was able to sell dirty very dirty Moi and convinced you....and then he sold Uhuru kenyatta..unkempty 38yr old drunkard...entire opposition had to unite otherwise KANU & Moi would still be on it.

Ruto of course has gone on to sell many things - the most outstanding was selling their join ticket while both were under trial at ICC for crimes against humanity. The Western countries are still dazed. They gave up on influencing kenya politics that day unable to countanance how people can elect indicted suspect out of bail in most serious criminal court facing trial on charges similar to genocide. Ruto just turned the narrative 360 degrees.

Now this election - he has started a class war essentially btw the poor - and rich political families - although he himself is very rich. That Hustler Revolution long caught fire - and is carrying him to statehouse.

Raila has absolutely no chance against Ruto - who is a political beast at his prime. Ruto will nick at his 1st try aged 55yrs against combined mighty of gov and opposition because he works incredibly hard and smart.

obaaderemi:
It might just happen if the opinion polls are anything to go by, and from what I read here. If you are above 70, you have no business running a country.

Bush jnr became president in his 50s when he came in in 2000. I remember how fiery he was. Same for Obama.

A nation like America may risk putting a dinosaur like Biden in office, they got all the right institutions running well. But Africa? That's a different kettle of fish. I wish your people would understand. But then, tribalism has always been a compliment to Africans. Probably you are also supporting Ruto because he is from your tribe.

I have no such powers or influence. It upon the main actors with influence or power to understand that free and fair election is critical for peace in Kenya - and this month of august - can either buy us time as we deal with serious ethnic divisions or send us Ethiopia way.

chrisooblog:
Rafiki I know this election season can be tense and emotional, but you and your fellow Kenyan compatriots should tone down the threats and tribal rhetoric.

Kenya will outlive Ruto and Odinga. Don't let selfish politicians instigate people into crisis that will take generations to undo.

Kalenjin produce most surplus food and produces in kenya. The rest can barely satisfy their own consumption needs. End of story.

StivoH2022:
Most are inherited land of which they're not utilised....or the kalenjin rent it out to Kikuyus and that's one of the reasons why Kalenjin are always bitter with Kikuyus,just jealousy.
You'll find a kalenjin owning a 30acre but goes to buy vegetables to a kikuyu who owns a 50/100 plot...
And check the kind of houses there...those are slums in the village ...that's poverty.

I know Uasin Gishu and Tranzoia produce allot of maize, but it's not profitable

Even so called Kibaki in kenya was an epic failure because he was too old and senile. I supported Kibaki in 1990s - and he was still okay. The kibaki of 70s and 80s was very brilliant. The one that became president gave us the worst violence - because he was not in charge. He got into bad road accident then survived two strokes - and just became an idiot who was making incoherent speeches in public. The people around him took over and made a huge mess. He got his own people - about 0.5M of them in IDP camps - send Kenya to ICC - and had to share power - and really economic growth we saw was default because Moi another old kleptomaniac had taken it to rock bottom.

Now Raila is just a disaster - he can barely stay awake - he is another Buhari - his wife Aisha and other cabals run things while he is mostly sick - and same would happen in Kenya if Raila was to win. It would be an epic disaster. In fact Uhuru and cabals think he wont last long enough - so they are backing him knowing he might even die Yardua style.

Good thing it wont happen.

obaaderemi:
I'm telling you this because we've been there. We threw out a president Jonathan who grew Nigeria's economy, kept petroleum products prices down and ensured food was cheap. We brought in an aged Buhari in the name of anti- corruption. Now the economy has taken a tailspin the kind of which we have never experienced even in the worst of military rule.

This old people don't understand the new realities when it comes to modern economy. And by nature they're stubborn and inflexible, thinking they know more than everyone else.
They're old and lazy and often do not understand the role of fiery nationalism in modern natiion building.

Maybe you're half pokot or tugen. Otherwise where I come from - we have always been one richest kenyan tribes. Kipsigis, Nandis and Keiyo definitely feed kenya.

StivoH2022:
I'm half Kalenjin half kikuyu and I can see anything to be proud of in being a Kalenjin.
The Kalenjin is next to Maasai and turkana when it comes to civilisation.
Despite being one of the largest tribes 98% of them have never been out of their five counties.

There's no reason to support Ruto apart from tribalism

I assume you're asking me this.
There are a big distinction btw reality and intent;
The reality of our politics is ethnic; and it was always violent; even before the British arrived.
I think you're shifting the blame from politicians to someone like me who is an analyst.
It's upon you to protect yourselves from violence - like I have done - I warned guys months ago to get their passports ready to evacuate.
Dont be caught nabbing again.
I know the actors - and I know what they are capable of.
Forget about what happened in the past - focus on the future.
The immediate future is Kenya is going through a very political risk period - because of the actors - Ruto and Kalenjin will not accept a rig process without a lot of bloodshed.
I am also aware that Ruto has the backing of Uganda and South Sudan - and if he decided to real go hard - we can get a civil war.
There is nothing special about kenya - Uganda, Ethiopia, Somalia, name them - mismanage your politics - and you have war.

You should count yourself fortunate because I know the beast and I can help you understand it.

Now if you want my help to understand the geneis of violence in RV - I can help you.
1992 was Moi instigated violence - very similar to what Uhuru was trying this week - except he failed because he is a drunkard.
Moi knew the kalenjin self defense mechanism - all he needed in 1992 was to trigger violence - by burning Kalenjin houses along the borders
from Molo to Mt elgon.
Kalenjin once a war cry is sounded - respond within an hour - once they establish that indeed kalenjin have been attacked - the rules of engagement changes - it war mode.

In 1992 - I was in upper primary - I was still uncut innocent boy- one afternoon we hear this wierd wailin or cry - attack molo attack molo attack molo- that suddenly stop and is picked in the next ridge - it goes like that that - attack molo - 3 or 4 times - the first woman in a village repeat - and it stops. The next village first woman - the cry went I am told to as far as transmara - in one hour - it had covered almost 300kms - attack molo attack molo!

Immediatetly our school bell rung - we were told that school was closed until further notice - male students to walk on the right to home - female to walk on the left. Now school was half boarding - half day. I was boarding. We took like an hour to pack our stuff.

By time we are get out - the school was teeming with maybe 1,000 warriors all armed - all silent - as we waited for transport - there number had increased to cover entire school field - 10,000 men . The entire kipsigis land had mobilized thousands of warriors in an hour - all assembled at nearest village assembly point...schools then...village joint next village..next school.The they began treking through Mau forest to get to Nakuru...as we heading home. That was longest file of people I had ever seen in my life all armed to the teeth - all dressed now in shukas.

The rest of people who are not in warrior class - cook food and leave on the road. Nobody speaks or say anything. It total silences - as war is on. The following morning - there was thousands of cows, bicycles, name it - out of the forest - I can imagine destruction visited on Molo that day was huge.

You need to understand kalenjin war infrastructure is unlike anything you've seen. It the total mobilization of all warrior class - 15yrs each - 15-35yrs old - in shortest possible time - you dont want to wake that monster or worse arm it.

Rarely have kalenjin been united - many subtribes - rarely are threat seen as that huge. Ruto and Moi were first to unite them.Ruto has united them in a cause - and I am afraid Ruto is so ambitious he could do the worse - which to arm kalenjin with guns.

That will be the END OF KENYA as we know.

Ruto has a huge leverage because he knows at sound of his cry - a million in my estimate warriors will be available for war - in all corners of kalenjin land. Now it depends on him - if he arms them - kenya is gone!

Dont be found nabbing - dont buy into propaganda that Kalenjin were assisted by Moi or police or planned or trained. Kalenjin have incredible traditional war infrastructure like no one in East Africa. This exist by default - and is watered every year - by training of new warriors - in peace or war - and sit there just waiting for a war cry. Ruto hold all the cards now.

Biggest advantage is the numbers that can be raised in shortest possible time....other communities will struggle to convince people to join war...kalenjin at sound of war cry saying ATTACK XYZ - will all respond - and descend on XYZ immediately - questions asked later.

kikuyu1:
Mzee, I've been reading for the past 2 days trying to clarify where exactly you're coming from.
I'm seeing what appears like straight out declarations of intent; threats and/or celebrations of violence inflicted on fellow Kenyans.
Every Kenyan here and IRL over the age of 15 knows of the terrible events that happened in the former Rift Valley. We know as far back as 1981Nandis attacked Luhyas- IIRC over 30 died in a month before things calmed down.
One of the first Molo victims in Nakuru county in 91 was actually a Kao lady, Mary Kamene, then 60. What was it all about? Why did Kenyans, Kikuyus, Kisiis, Luhyas and Luos have to suffer violence?
Especially when the multinational tea companies whose directors are directly descended from those who mass murdered the original Kipsigis and Nandis late 1890s still own over 200k acres?
Pls just make it make sense.
Thanks.

We got 72hrs to election - and then Kalenjin once again sit on your for 10yrs - min - but 25yrs - like Moi did - is very possible as demographics are changing- and most of you are yet to recover. Luo influence who? Most of you guys are farm hands in our farms Almost every household where I come from - there is Luo, Gusii and Luhya we have employed to pluck our tea, till our land and do such menial jobs.

If not working hard manual labour - you're living in Nairobi, Mombasa and name every slum in Kenya.Do you see our people in slums influencing slums culture - of course not. Do you even want to compare yourselves to kalenjin who produce most of the food in kenya - if we stopped growing maize, wheat, tea, beef, sheeps, dairy, name - kenya will be on it's knees.

Only Kikuyus can speak to us - and I think after 2007 beating - they have accepted a power deal that will see power rotate btw Kalenjin and Kikuyu - and Uhuru is having lose bowel movements - as we speak because kikuyus are committed to the power deal.

Remove Kikuyus and Kalenjin from kenya - and you've nothing left - just bunch of tribes with half an acre of land at best, unable to feed themselves, filling up slums, and working hard menial labour for most of their lives. This is why Kalenjin and Kikuyu sat down - and realised why fight - they have done 60yrs - they can do another 60yrs together. Uhuru has tried for personal interest to undo the power pact but his people have said NO. This what this election really boils down to.

The rigging schemes, the attempted violence, so far have been nipped in the bud, and the usual suspect have booked the exit flight out of kenya. Kenya might just be lucky to escape a civil war.

Come wednesday - Ruto will begin the most painful purge on dynasties ever undertaken in kenya - Miguna Miguna will probably lead it. By then most of the cowards will be running to exile.

Then you'll once again know - like you did in Moi era - Kenya has only few men - the rest are sissies like you.

Worse case scenario - I will be watching from Europe as you get butchered.

Obiano13:
Kalepithecus violence would be a localized blob with zero impact on the rest of the country, nothing close to 207 when all corners of the country erupted. The govt was unprepared, no reinforcements as happens now. Since then they know anything can happen hence the massive deployment of security forces in kalejinga territory. Your people live in one tiny manyatta that can be contained with little effort. 92' Moi your fellow kalepithecus was in power I wonder what you were fighting. If you are as bad as advertised you wouldn't be so dispossesed by fellow Kenyans from all walks of life. Kikuyu people are literally overrunning your landmass despite your best efforts to route them out. 2007 you literally run mad trying to kick them out and the takeover has only accellerated. You rely too heavily on outdated prehistoric survival tactics of bows and arrows when the modern world requires brainpower. God gave you thin running legs and played hardball on IQ. Thats why culturally you influence no one in Kenya, aside from the Pokots, who have even refused to be associated with you in this election. Luos influence everyone n the western part of the country and even nationally. Kikuyus influence everyone. What about you? NO ONE!!! People just laugh at you. The best thing for you and fellow sheeple is to keep the peace and hope your thief can play his cards right going forward. The polls are being fair to him, the real gap is even worse. I keep reminding bots like you that Raila has had his votes stolen since 2007. Thats why pollsters cant get any election right. This will be the first election where his true numbers will be allowed to show. David Murathe confirmed as much same with Moses Kuria. Raila is the owner of numbers. Everybody else is a pretender. Not even Uhuru can marshall the numbers he boasts. The shock that awaits Ulliam is massive! Dont also put Uhuruto votes in the bag because they arent one n the same. Premium tears loading. By wednesday you will be on the verge of suicide.

You're starting to become incoherent - when face with facts.

For example - Bungoma - Ruto has Weta and entire Ford-K crew. In 2017 - thanks to Speaker Lusaka - they improved from 12% in 2013 to 24-30% in 2017. All opinion polls shows Ruto has flipped Bungoma and Tranzoia.

Example 2 - Machakos - Ruto has Muthama & has retained Mutua - and this time round Kalonzo is not Raila DPORK - there a lot of disaffection in Ukambani - the usual 90 is impossible.

I have added more data - showing this election is a repeat of last time - prepare for premium tears.

StivoH2022:
We're using the nullified election as a base but it's OK just for argument

Uhuruto got 12% in Bungoma,10% in Machakos...meaning Ruto should get 35% for you to say he has added 25%...which is not possible remember how hard they tried in vain back in 2017

Sometimes all you need is an excel.

I have analyzed - and assumed Ruto & Raila gains 25% from each of these top 10 strongholds. Although we know Ruto will gain more - but also Mt kenya generally turn out more.

Conclusion. Raila get a million more votes. Raila loses a million votes. Ruto loses 1 million votes. Raila gains a million votes.

What remain - the 1.5M gap we had in 2017 - Raila has to increase his votes by 800K - to beat Ruto by 100K. I hope you follow the logic.

So for Raila to close the gap - he still need another a million vote to beat Ruto by 100K votes.That is 50% of Mt Kenya - WE KNOW THAT IS IMPOSSIBLE - and therefore we know he CANNOT WIN

StivoH2022:
The issue is how many votes does those counties have?
Kikuyus/Gema have almost 6m votes across the country.

....while the entire western have 2m, Coast 1.9m, Eastern 1.9m...Uhuruto got a good percentage from it...while Raila got almost zero in Mt Kenya

They will even be more biased - it's called a civil war.

StivoH2022:
They were biased...I was there during the whole PEV

Gain 25% in Mt kenya (10 counties) - Lose 25% in Western, Ukambani & Coast (5,3,4)...end of day..you're doing nothing.
Raila will gain in 10 counties in Mt Kenya & possibly 2 Gusii Counties (12) -
Ruto will gain in 13 counties by even bigger margins (as some have completely flipped) - Bungoma, Tranzoia, Kakamega, Vihiga, Busia,Machakos,Makueni,Kitui, Taita Taveta, kwale, Mombasa & Kilifi.
The Northern Kenya - From Turkana to Mandera remain 50-50 game - and they have very few votes.

StivoH2022:
This is true....and if Raila gets 25% of kikuyu votes he'll definitely win

Where was the mighty gov in 2007.

StivoH2022:
Hahaaa what are you trying to say here....that the government can be defeated by some primitive villagers with arrows

Kenya politics - desperate Raila now put opinion polls on billboard. This must a first in the world. This level of desperation is hilarious

Kenya politics is personality driven. Nigeria parties are ahead of kenya. We have new parties every election. Uhuru did not want to share power - especially after 1st term experience. Ruto is very forcefully and in their first term - got perhaps 60-70% of power - while Uhuru is habitually drunk.

So the 2nd term - Uhuru knowing it was final term - he want to monopolize power - so he had to kick Ruto out - by bringing Raila without sharing the pie. Raila is easy to please idiot - given fake AU job and few outriders - he was happy.

At some point Uhuru thought he is too young to retire - and wanted to ammend the constitution to expand executive - get prime minister - so he can go for it.It failed...and now he is Azimio Chairman - in 50-50 coalition with Raila - except his own Mt kenya people have rejected his moves.

68816419:
Even if Ruto loses, I will still respect him for fighting the battle on his own, with minimal help from his official political party.
But if I may ask, why may Uhuru Kenyatta have abruptly deserted Ruto without taking into account the repercussions for his own party?

Sure I wont forget this. On Tuesday night, I will be here Inshallah. Just out of curiosity how did you calculate 57%?

It very easy maths. Raila had is 2017 base - 45% - Ruto had is Jubilee base 55% - now Raila start -10% - or well 5% to hit 50%.

If he was smart - he'd retain NASA stronghold - and go for that 6% in Mt kenya - and he'd be home and dry.

But he istn't - he has hammorrage western , coast, ukambani - some by 20-30% - others have completely flipped.

In short - we are back to 2017 - because while Raila went hunting in former jubilee zones - Ruto similarly went hunting in NASA zones - the gains cancel each other.

68816419:
I am familiar with tribal calculations in Kenya because I have lived there. According to my understanding, Ruto and Odinga will each receive a portion of the Kikuyus and Mount Kenya regions, while Raila would receive at least 80% of the votes cast in Kisumu and the surrounding counties. And don't forget that Raila has consistently prevailed in Kenya's coastal region; nothing would change this time.
Therefore, the elections would now be won and decided by these smaller counties. Don't forget the "Martha effect," which is the fact that most Kenyan women and her tribal people support Kikuyu lawyer Martha Karua as his running partner.

That impressive considering intimidation Uhuru pulled to stop the rally - and this new ground Ruto is making - because Mombasa and entire coast was pro-Raila. Now it's a battleground.

68816419:
Wacthing RUTO's Mega rally at the same time

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AwD7TavZww

Okay 57 percent from where. You certainly dont understand the tribal arithmetic of kenya.

Ruto is perceived to be corrupt - because first he cut his teeth in the very corrupt regime of Moi - he has new money - and isnt afraid to flaunt it.

Ruto being very smart and ambitious learnt in Moi era that Kenya politics was TRIBE AND BRIBE. Just like in Uganda you need a AK47 - in Kenya you better have money - people dont respect poor folks. That is why Sonkos, Johos, almost entire leadership is full of thugs, drug dealers, conmen - MONEY SPEAKS.

If Ruto didnt have bottomless pockets of money - he'd already be dead now after Uhuru betrayed him, send entire gov machinery to crush him and worked with entire opposition. Ruto had to literally rain money, have politician on weekly retainer, and have entire church on M-pesa mobile money every sunday.

Once Ruto get PORK - he wont need to accumulate money - nobody will challenge him political for a decade plus - and he will transform kenya because he very smart, very hardworking and very gifted.

68816419:
Since he is too elderly and doesn't comprehend current development trends, I would prefer that he didn't win, but it appears quite unlikely that he won't loose. In my opinion, Raila will prevail with 57 percent of the total votes.
I can see why the majority of Somalis would support Ruto, but why do most of my Kenyan friends believe Ruto to be far more corrupt than Raila?

You definitely never heard of Kalenjin (Nandi) resistance that lasted 15yrs against the mighty British - from 1890 to 1895 - ending with cold blood murder of the military and religious leader Koitalel Samoei.

The British were so impressed by Nandi resistance they took the skull of Koitalel. The Brits could believe how savages armed with bows and arrows could beat them - for 15yrs.

One particularly shocking case is that of the skull of Nandi chief Koitalel Arap Samoei. He fought against Britain’s railway project through his land and in 1905 was shot dead by British colonel Richard Meinertzhagen. Samoei’s body was decapitated and the head taken to London.

chrisooblog:
Get off your high horse dude. The Vietnamese Army and Vietcong battled against and overcame the might of the American Army, while you're here beating your chest because your ancestors were playing hide and seek with the brits


I have more respect for Ashanti and Zulu armies that faced British soldiers head on in battle with lesser weapons and sometimes won.

That is the home ground of the perennial loser - which US embassy has already declared no go zone - because they know Odinga is heading for a loss and those people will be inconsolable come wednesday

68816419:
I am really enjoying this Finale LIVE Raila Odinga Rally in Kisumu

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8f-Ssi_Jct8

Kalenjin are the most prepared of them all - because every male - at his mid teens is taken through a rudimentary military training -in the forest for a month now coz of schools (my father went for six month - my grandfather a year - I took 1.5months - a military bootcamp where you trained to make weapons and fight )- the rest really is to upgrade or not upgrade their weapons. Those that have guns like Pokots - though just few hundrends - are tough nuts.

Now imagine nearly a million of 18-30yrs old (active warrior ageset) already trained on basic warfare against kenya gov entire force of mere 100k. In 2007 - it took 48hrs to evict 0.6m people leading Ruto wrongly to ICC for crimes against humanity - gov embarrassed by their ineffectiveness created a fake story that Ruto had organized and trained warriors - total falsehood.

Now they want to sent water canoons - like someone in kalenjinland will be demonstrating in the streets - nope - if war occur kalenjin will fight almost exclusively at night.

ItooWorWor:
Afgan is a different case they are already battle tested against the soviet and are well armed than machete wielding Kalenjin, they havr cells all over Afagan while Kalenjin are restricted to the Rift Valley, in the case of war the where all Kalenjin are unified like you said they will be beating black and blue by KDF.


Tigray had decades of preparation advantage.



the Houthi in Yemeni are more armed than most Africa country.


Somali is a den of terrorist from every corner so you can't compare it to Kenya were just a section of the country decides to go on a suicide mission.


Talking of Boko haram , terrorism is different from what you are implying with Kalenjin unified war. If the entire Borno or Kanuris where to declare war on Nigeria, I can bet my left balls they won't last a month.

Fact remain the land you took belong to weakest of Africa races - the cape of good to namibia - very weak khoisans - who just hunt and gather.
After 500yrs in Africa - of course you're better harden that weak white race.
White race is very very weak - remove the weapon advantage - the white race leading soft life cannot fight.
So I can understand when white race see you as their warriors.
But you struggled against Zulus.
And now you mostly took the land of the Bush-men.
And British came - colonized you - until recently.

jl115:
my bru the Boere invented modern guerrilla tactics.... The fvcking word commando is an Afrikaans word now recognised worldwide and used synonymously with elite forces around the world..... While the Kalenjin still used sticks and stones to fight wars, the Boere took on half a million British troops that out numbered them 15-1 and beat them black and blue in 2 wars.

"Give me 20 divisions American soldiers and I will breach Europe. Give me 15 consisting of Englishmen, and I will advance to the borders of Berlin. Give me two divisions of those marvellous fighting Boers and I will remove Germany from the face of the earth." "

- Field Marshall B L Montgomery

"The Americans fight for a free world, the English mostly for honor and glory and medals, the French and Canadians decide too late that they have to participate. The Italians are too scared to fight; the Russians have no choice. The Germans for the Fatherland. The Boers? Those sons of bitches fight for the hell of it."

-American General, George Patton

"Take a community of Dutchmen of the type of those who defended themselves for fifty years against all the power of Spain at a time when Spain was the greatest power in the world. Intermix with them a strain of those inflexible French Huguenots, who gave up their name and left their country forever at the time of the revocation of the Edict of Nantes . The product must obviously be one of the most rugged, virile, unconquerable races ever seen upon the face of the earth. Take these formidable people and train them for seven generations in constant warfare against savage men and ferocious beasts, in circumstances in which no weakling could survive; place them so that they acquire skill with weapons and in horsemanship, give them a country which is eminently suited to the tactics of the huntsman, the marksman and the rider. Then, finally, put a fine temper upon their military qualities by a dour fatalistic Old Testament religion and an ardent and consuming patriotism. Combine all these qualities and all these impulses in one individual and you have the modern White Boer."

-Sir Arthur Conan Doyle

I didn't say anything about your people, so don't come here and think you can talk down to mine my bru especially when history clearly shows otherwise

What is Somali or Afganis doctrine of war . It starts and ends with the mettle the people are made of - not everyone has the stomach for war and bloodshed - but some do. You gotta understand your enemy. If the Boer landed in middle of Sahara - it wont have lasted a month. It picked the easiest target of bush-men - weakest of african races - that bantus overrun from Nigeria to south africa without any resistance.

Kalenjin dominate marathons because we are made of sterner stuff - we can withstand pain. Just small section of kalenjin pokot - KDF fears them - the police just go there and hide

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mniw4_O6CZs&t=59s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUoLXbCaCrc&t=378s

jl115:
actually its just doctrine

Warfare is fought by humans. Go to Afgan - and like NATO - spent trillions - they fail. Go to Somalia. Go to Tigray. There are regions you cannot win. Nigeria you're still struggling in the north of your country. Saudi Arabia is struggling against Yemen despite buying every weapon they see

Before you go to modern warfare - and weapons - it start and ends with the human. The harden human living in arid pastoral areas are not easy to battle...like group of farmers. That is a start. Afganis, Yemenis, Somalis, Tigrayans, Kalenjin and others are warriors that can dig in and fight you despite the weapons you bring in.

ItooWorWor:
Someone here don't know how modern warfare works






NTSA just don't waste your time

Ruto just ended his press conference - message is clear - it's over for Uhuru and his project Raila. The Azimio project has totally collapsed.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fg8GKOyDzwY

You cannot win and you cannot govern.

https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/william-ruto-the-chicken-seller-turned-presidential-hustler--3902578

"Ruto is seen by many people to be one of the most effective strategists in Kenyan politics," said Nic Cheeseman, a political scientist at the University of Birmingham.

"He's someone with extensive experience of running campaigns, performing very well in campaigns, of seeing politics from both sides. He stood with Odinga, he stood with Kenyatta, he knows most of these figures intimately well, he knows their strengths and weaknesses."

You underrate one thing. Kalenjin is a very well militarily organized society - and the movement will be swift - you wont know what hit you - it will be a flash - and same way for KDF - it will just happen very fast - and before you know you've lost the war. Most others would need months to prepare. Kalenjin turn into war infrastructure very fast - you should ask those with first hand experience. There is definitely nothing like that in East Africa - where within 2hours the entire society transform into war machine - all they need is for Ruto to declare war - get into a plane - and go to exile. You wont get time to escape...within 2hours...entire Kalenjin will be lockdown.

I honestly dont think kenya bantus or Luos have the stomach for wars! They dont. For every Kalenjin KDF will kill - Kalenjin will simply kill many civilians.Kalenjin will be get free roaming ground in pastoral areas.

Its upon Uhuru and his fools to realize this war they cannot win. He started it in 2018 and I remember warning him he was going to end badly.

Ruto will win - and will proceed to destroy Kenyatta & Moi empire. Those are not negotiable. They can negotiate jail free card but money & land is gone.

This Farah Maalim was brave to say it as it - Kalenjin and Ruto are not people you want to rig out - DO NOT EVEN THINK ABOUT IT.

2007 was just kalenjin helping poor Raila and Luo from being massacred - but to steal Kalenjin mean you dont love kenya.

Should be compulsory listening to all the scared fools who want to make kenya a war zone

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwlnehSIVaI

NTSA:
It wouldn't be that easy for Kdf disintegrate and if it would happen only Kalenjin officers "leave "....infact just like it happened in tigray most of them in barracks away from home would be disarmed and held in special prisons by the military.

A civil war would be a war against kalenjins and it would be an extremely dirty
Neighbouring communities would be baying for blood, Kalenjin Warriors would be fighting on multiple fronts you would be on the defensive in a two week's time .That's why the warriors would retreat to the deep interiors that is forests, valleys and Gorge's.

The fighting capacity would be reduced to lowscale hit and run tactics on Kdf patrol units just like alshabaab or pokot does.

Large scale battalion level assault on Kdf positions would not be possible since they would try to avoid mass fatalities and wouldn't match the firepower.
Airstrikes and helicopter gun runs would further cause havoc while preventing them from massing up huge number of warriors at one place .
The rest of the country would still remain largely functional.


In the next few months women and children would be forced into protected villages (essentially concentration camps) denying the warriors much needed supplies like food etc. remember this has been the strategy during the shifta and the maumau wars.

Even if Uganda supplied arms essentially AKs and G3s in the longrun it wouldn't be sustainable for them since most of their trade would be affected .


Fyi don't compare previous inter-tribal conflicts where your main objective is to chase other unarmed communities from your areas with a military level conflict. in this case it wouldn't be a military intervention like it happens in Somalia ,Rules of engagement would change .
But anyways.. Ruto is taking this one and Kenya will be prosperous he is the only man with a plan.
No fighting will happen.

Ethiopia lost Eritrea and are losing Tigray because few armies are ever prepared to fight a civil war. Actually none is.
Kalenjin are the ultimate guerrilla warfare force - they will fight a insurgency war - the whole kalenjin war philosophy is built on that.
Nandi held the Brits for 15yrs because they fight at middle of the night - day time skirmishes are left for small boys.
The real war start at midnight and end at 3 am. The rest of the day is intelligence gathering.
Kalenjin are very disciplined, organized and very efficient - when they get an opportunity they hit you with devastating consequences, when advantage swing your way, they avoid loses.
The entire RV has forests, gorges, rifts, and all sort of terrain to assist.
The entire community are united in a cause.
Those are very important key strength.
KDF will be left to throw bombs and drones on maize fields....

Anyway this for me is how the cookie crumbles.
Kalenjin versus police/azimio supporters - that end very shortly in 48hours.
I estimate at least a 1-2 million panicked folks just scampering for safety - near Kalenjin.
Kalenjin similarly outside RV - will be trying to get back home.
That already causes an international crisis - of IDPS and refugees.

Panicked gov calls in KDF to bolster police efforts.
That result into a civil war.
Kenya economy at that point has gone to the dogs.
At that point it's who is feared the most - Kalenjin or remnant of KDF.
Do kalenjin go for seccession war or go for Nairobi.
That depends on Kikuyu support - if there is kikuyu support - they will go for Nairobi.
If there is no support - they will kick out non-natives in RV - and go for secession.

Both sides likely to negotiate because I dont see how KDF can succeed without local support.
Kalenjin will be very united.
Kenya economy will be very weak.

In short - Kenyans will be begging for peace in a month.

We might get new constitution based on federalism and new election - otherwise by then military will be running things.

Only way war can be avoided if we have crisis in a week is for united KDF to take over from civilians - if KDF waits and splits - they are done - kenya is done.

NTSA:
Police posts are just mere structures with 5 to 10 officers ,a few G3 s and Aks and they can easily be overrun.
In a "hypothetical "all out war, kalenjin militias would cause havoc against local communities and police stations after which a Military seige would start due to the fact they would be surrounded on almost all fronts. This would then turn into another guerilla insurgency.

Even if all kalenjin officers defected ,Most critical military installation like airbases, Artillery units,Tank units etc would remain intact due to their location hence Kdf will always have upperhand ..
The case in tigray was different due to the fact that TDF had conventional army capabilities they had amased for a long time most military installations were in the tigray region.

Omunyala win 100m gold medal in commonwealth. This hopefully is start of kenya dominance in short races