₦airaland Forum

Yes that been Raila problem. He cannot plan long-term. He lives for the moment. So we sisypeahn situation where just before he tip the stones; he re-start again. It's inconceivable that he has not won - 1997 to date is - 25yrs?

kikuyu1:
He thinks Karua will give him Mt. Kenya! And Tayser thinks so too!? He's not and has never been a planner but a schemer which is his undying problem. Shortsighted and reactive and behind the curve.

Kenya Azimio crew. Infact with final registered voters released - it takes some serious leave of reasoning - to imagine Raila has a path to victory. This question was posted in Kamba (Azimio stronghold) and 70% said Raila has no path to power. Ruto has serious lead in Mt Kenya, Riftvalley and now western. Those are the top 3 voting blocks....how will Raila recover from there?

This really the problem with Raila and most his supporters. You're suffering from tunnel vision. You're so focused on Mt kenya that you've lost ground in your base. It's proverbial pursuing two birds in the bush and leaving the one at hand.

Even if you win some Mt kenya votes...unless you hit 60%...to go even with Ruto...you're dead.

Let me break it down.
MtKenya population is about 23% - 17.5% kikuyu,4.5% meru, Embu/Mbeere 1%.
Due to their population structure (more adults than kids) & higher turnout - their national voters share is higher - at 28% (rough estimate of 2017)
If turnout is subdued by 10% - that will slice off 2.8%
So this election MtKenya is 25% of the total expected voters nationally...about the size of entire rift valley province.

50% of that 12.5%....

The gap btw Jubilee and NASA in 2017 was about 9-10%.
If Ruto loses half MtKenya(12.5%) but retain the rest of Jubilee he would be around 54.5% - 12.5% - (42%)

But we know Ruto has gained by campaigning for 5yrs nationally - all over - with Hustler Revolution - so give and take - 3-4% - like he helped Jubilee in 2017 improve from 51% to 55% (rounding off).

So Ruto essentially with half MtKenya is 45%. That is UDA Ruto - that for argument sake has lost 50% of MtKenya

And that is without Kenya Kwanza.

Weta brings Bukusu votes...he has never run but he is influential in Bukusu who are the largest subtribe in Luhyaland (give him 2% nationally - I think Bukusu are 5% nationally - maDVD last time got 1% - Ruto already has had his play - so I think he really add Ruto 2%)
MaDVD brings Maragoli and other Luhyas...he got 4-5% in 2013. It didn't quite show in NASA - who improve slightly because Raila like he does hammorage more votes than maDVD brough to NASA from Amani caolition.

So at 45% UDA with half MtKenya (for argument sake) - with MaDVD 5% - Ruto is already 50% - with Weta - he is at 52%.

Ruto still has little play from Mutua & Kingi (latest acquisition maybe worth 1% nationally) - to afford to lose another 10% of MtKenya (3%) - and still win by 51% - a whisker.

In Short for Raila to go 50-50 with RUto - he better be playing around 60% of MtKenya.

But reality - Ruto is not losing 50% of MtKenya. Ruto is losing 20-30% of MtKenya - that about 7.5% nationally- so he essentially starts at 54.5% - minus 7.5% ---which is around 47% of 2017 as his UDA base. He gains another 7% - and wins by 55%.

Comeback on the 9th August. The result will be the usual. Ruto 55% - Raila 45% if not worse - Ukambani for example Raila is doing very badly.

And these things are easy....get an excel...and I can show you the tribal percentage of each county...crunch the numbers.

Raila will lose because while he is focussed on gaining Mt kenya (so far evidence suggest he isnt making much headway) - Ruto will double or triple what Uhuru got in 2017 in former Raila strongholds like Western, Ukambani, and Coast. That will negate all the little gains Raila will in Mt kenya.

And that really is Raila political story...a sisypean curse where he get into next election cycle...destroy his coalition and then start again..instead of consolidating that support and trying to get the 5-7% he has so far missed in three elections..he is a month from his 5th (or 6th if you add 1982) loss.

Same same 2017 story - He gained MaDVD - improved in Luhyaland to 85% - but lost votes elsewhere - so Jubilee improved from 51% to 55%. In 2017 his maths was simple - he had 44% - he only needed to gain 5% from MaDVD - but he forgot that he needed not to leak votes elsewhere.

2013 - he started with 45% of 2007 - all he needed to win was keep kalenjin in ODM...and try to get 5% from Kalonzo. He failed.

2007 - Oranges Referendum had won by 58% - all they needed to do was to retain Kalonzo - they failed - Ukambani left for ODM-Kenya and Raila was rigged out because his numbers were not good enough to beat an incumbent.

Tayser:
@Kikuyu1, told you couple weeks ago about a 'Martha Effect'. You almost put a noose around my neck. Its actually confirmed. What do your latest more believable numbers say? According to Prof Kagwanja, over the past month, she has extended Azimio's lead in the Mountain by 10 %. FYI, the Star is aligned to Ruto. As I said before, this will be the most clear cut elections since 2003. RVP actually believed Kyuks will be blindly led by Ruto like goats to the abattoir.

Yes overhead cables need to go in business districts -

Shma:
True. Fixing Concrete is the only way to stop them.
For the hanging electric wires, I believe it's possible to do away with them. Those electric wires are becoming an eyesore, especially on those upcoming CDBs. They should try to borrow a leaf from those fiber guys, while at it, make a long-term serving underground tunnel for its operations.
Downtown has eradicated it... And the decency can be seen. Kilimani,westlands, and upper hill are yet to do that. I was in upper hill some two weeks ago, and there was a section where they were burying those electric cables, although a large part is still having them.

The problem were those fiber guys digging up pavements every now and then. Gov should build pavement with proper conduit for electricity, water, fiber, like is being done in Konza city.

Shma:
Westlands should be the next destination for NMS.
This place will be more of Newyork if we fix the streets, bury electric cables in the ground, and add more Automated traffic control systems.

Nairobi leafy suburbs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBvBvLHTxvk


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hy3st_8q-j4

Nairobi should focus on NMT - non motorized transport - like developed cities are doing. It easy for us because people like walking. We just need to build roads - not for cars - but people to walk. Nairobi because it has not sprawled alot - most people will need to walk or cycle or scot less than 10kms to their place of work.

So yes I think gov should focus on NMT - for example in 50m corridor along all the rivers - build roads for cycling and walking - this will assist the slum dwellers - who are settler in river valleys to easily move.

Secondly Matatus and Bus should have priority lanes - everywhere. This will discourage personal cars except in weekends. People should use personal cars in weekend to get out of Nairobi or to travel.

These are proposal that cost very very little.....and has biggest impact on mass transport.

If we have money - we can think of investing in metro - especially that extend to Nairobi Metro. I am not sure we will have money in the next 3-4yrs - so maybe we can get PPP like expressway - for someone to come and invest in metro - and get paid - if it profitable.

Shma:
Heard in the next 2 days, All matatus in the CBD will be relocated to the New bus terminus - great move! They are now rehabilitating the previous Railway station and the famous Ambassador -- where matatus were packing.

Nairobi CBD is 80% there. We now need to focus more on a better transport system within it, like BRT or Commuter. That will save the congestion in the town.

Nairobi downtown needs some thorough work. Repainting and rehabilitating old buildings should be primary.

Upper hill is the future city in making. Let it develop then maybe, later on... electric poles and cables should be eradicated to pave the way for some decency.

Westlands is a futuristic city. Development is in every corner. 5yrs from now, westlands will be among the top 3 best CBDs in Africa.

Day 1 highlight

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ii2DNZldN8Q

Nairobi has few issues it need to fix to become great city. Pavement is the easiest and could provide jobs to many - also the reduce the need to use public transport - because more people can walk - if pavements are smooth. This should be top priority.

Water I think deficit is small and will be bridged easily.

Then slum and informal housing eradication with full sewer coverage.

Then rest are easy day to day collecting of garbage.

Kigali has done #1 - pavement - and we can do that easily.

Shma:
This street tour has some Newyork vibes. No country in west Africa can come close - I've already told them that.

We just need small improvements to catch up with two notorious south African cities: cape town and Joburg.

Nairobi fixing pavements problem...if this done in entire city..Nairobi would be as good as any developed city.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PCAg0h2iPo


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNLqnwoJqmM

Night - lot more can be done to make it more vibrant with outdoor dinning

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIhBkqa3Ekc

Kikuyu, Look like Ruto is not keen to kill CBC but will fix the issues identified. Look like he has refuse to go with popular route to kill CBC like happened in South Africa - but is ready to face the teething challenges head on.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BC9RYNOHJpc

They have been doing this for 30yrs - same with electricity

gallivant:
I can't believe Nigerians are still queuing for petrol. Really sad state of affairs for the biggest oil producer.

South Africa - is both a regional and africa power. It's private sector tentacles are almost in every African country. It has struggled to project it's influence beyond their borders after it epic failure or mess in Zimbwabwe. They tried NEPAD to take away some shine from AU - but it failed.

South Africa foreign policy will only recover when they deal with Zim problem.

Raila politics revolve around violence - and since he has resisted retirement - for long - kenya politics has become violent - once we retire him in a month - kenya politics will become peaceful again. The people that will feel impact of peace are his Luo people who are under 30yr siege where opposing Raila is met with gang violence and almost ex-communication.

Jaramogi his father was a very peaceful man.

This is an except of Raila long history of violence - that starts in 1960s - many attempted coups in 70s and 80s - ended up in prison for almost a decade - came back - we saw great violence in street of kisumu and then it shifted to Kibera. I remember in early 1990s - Kibra then led by a white man - saw great violence for 1st time as he shifted base from Kisumu to Nairobi - and the violence has continued in Nairobi slums since then.

By Opiyo Gordon.
You all saw the stoning. You all saw the violence. This is not propaganda cooked by anyone. This is reality.
This is why I hate Raila with pure unadulterated hatred.
Using young men to create havoc and then pretend to be "savior".
In October 1969, just a few months after he came from East Germany, he organized a group of young men in Kisumu to stone the motorcade of Mzee Jomo Kenyatta. Jaramogi had no idea what his son was planning. And after the harsh trading of words Jaramogi thought things would end there. But his son had organised some "small discipline for Mzee Kenyatta" and several people lost their lives. The exact number may never be known. Some say 200 people died that day. Others say 100.
In 1982 he cheated several Luo soldiers in the Kenya Airforce to stage a coup lying to them that he had backup from Tanzania. Of course there was nothing of the sort. This led to hundreds dying. And in his usual style Raila betrayed the soldiers and Gallant Snr Private Ochuka was hanged as the cowardly betrayer bought his freedom. From 1982 to 2002, Luos suffered open discrimination after the aborted Coup. Raila effectively ended plans by Moi to bring Luos to the mainstream Government. The impact of the marginalization is seen in the population of Luos in Slums....
You know what happened in all elections that the cowardly betrayer lost..... No need to repeat.
And today, the stoning of the DP was just a continuation of what has been going on for decades. His intention was for the Security detail of the DP to shoot in self defense, and cause bloodshed. So that he gets enough blood to activate his evil altars.
But the DP, was wise and ordered every one not to retaliate.
Such actions may excite the short sighted people. But they are extremely dangerous. You cannot openly and violently attack the leading Presidential candidates and walk away like that.
Had anything happened to Ruto, do you think that we would be at peace?
My only hope is that in 50 days, this Era of bloodshed will be over. President Ruto should never think about any handshake with Raila after defeating him on 9th.
To us in Luo Nyanza, who are under the bondage of this wicked ruler, we are praying for the 50 days ziende haraka. We can't wait to see and taste freedom.....

Kazikazi:
I think we shouldn't just blame those poor souls.The blame should be directed at their leaders. The leaders should be arrested.
What puzzles me about Kenya's elections is this culture of violence which is repeating while many people can't find a better way out of that mess.
Why are we hearing the name of Ruto and raila all the time?
Are they no other better leaders than these fellows? Why recycling the same dudes though we know they have done these same crimes of igniting violence in the past?

Pray for kenya

Amhrest - a premier art ivy college - where he studied political science and history bachelors degree - might want to confirm if he indeed graduated - there are romours he isnt on the year book of 1985 but seriously Uhuru capitulation will have serious ramification on the kenyatta and Moi empire - Raila or Ruto win. They are politically exposed without GEMA backing for Uhuru and Kalenjin for Moi. By Christmas their wealth within Kenya would have evaporated SportPesa style.

They are handing over a broke treasury - and ravenous greedy new elite will find IMF undertakers in treasury closing all the taps - so they will go for kenyatta and Moi elite wealth.

Meanwhile someone should sit down Wanjohi and tell him to sober up. He is playing with fire here. If Ruto get injured - he is risking the lifes of many people in an ethnic progrom.

https://twitter.com/Kip_K1/status/1538532631532429313

kikuyu1:
Poliscis worldwide will study Wanjohi as an epic case of reversal of political popularity. He was in the low 60s early 2017!

Maybe he meant Nakuru city or town? Because I own several farms in Nakuru and I know Azimio pale will struggle. Raila is assured of the almost 20 percent (luhyas are ish-ish) Non-Kalenjin/No-Kikuyu - will score zero in Kalenjin cluster - and will get few Kikuyu votes; So give and take he might get 30 percent of Nakuru. Lee as governor is gone - Susan will nick it and Keroche Tabitha has senatorship. UDA brigade will sweep the board except maybe in Nakuru East, Naivasha and Bahati.

kikuyu1:
What else do you say when someone says," Naks is overwhelmingly pro Azimio." (!?)

Kenya august election is essentially a fight btw the current Deputy President Ruto - and the scions of Kenya political families of Kenyatta (kenya 1st president), Raila Odinga ( kenya 1st Vice President) and Gideon Moi (2nd and longest serving president) backed by the state machinery and a motley of supporting cast.

Ruto has managed to survive the twin assault - both from their political network/capital - and the state machinery - for 5yrs - by outsmarting, out-spending and out-manourving them for that long - and it's now down to last 50 days.

Ruto though of humble backgrounds - at one point hawking chicken on the road as young man - is wealthy (source of it questionable), energetic, quick thinker, fast talker, courageous and a really gifted propagandist.

Raila - who lost twice to current president - and has contested for 5 times now- is backed by current president having fallen out with Ruto- Raila is now approaching 80yrs (1st attempted a coup in 1982!!) - so august will be exactly 40yrs since his 1st attempt at power.

Ruto is just 55yrs and on his 1st attempt at president - though he is now finishing 10yrs as the deputy president.

Ruto inspired a class/political divide/war pitying the majority poor against the few elite - that became Hustler Nation - and because he is such a gifted propagandist - the elite wealth, power, mainstream media and name all arsenals they have thrown at him - have almost all come a cropper.

Now they are resorting to last minute desperate measures that will include attempt to rig election, cause violence and all sort of desperate measure because Ruto has promised to end their state capture and go for their business/land/wealth. And they know he will.

Very shameful - few such violent events happen - it mostly restricted and isolated - and this because police complicity. Kenya police remain a huge blot in our progress - corrupt, violent and mostly illiterates buffons.

Our constitution gave the police and security arm - security of tenure/operational independence -to be independent and professional - we did thorough vetting of all them again - interviewed them again - fired those with unexplained wealth - but it remain unprofessional bunch of thugs in uniform.

On that particular event...

Azimio are feeling the heat so they incited violence with police complicity in a slum near there called Soweto. But they are wasting time - Ruto doesnt backdown from a fight - and went ahead and held his rally on that ground few minutes ago

Kazikazi:
Shma
My son
What's going on at jacaranda grounds, I see azimio and Kwanza supporters fight about 1hr ago during electioneering

Once your ran out of dollars soon; you will lack more than food;

PetroDolla2020:
kenya boy, people are not starving to death in Ghana oooh carry your frustrations elsewhere,huh?

Ghana is not the reason kenyans are suffering,huh? Fuckeduppedness

Africa leading inflation champions; The usual suspects; Ghana up there at 48 percent

Sounds like bla de bla to me. I have seen enough of West Africa to know you dont get it. It's about tending to grass, hedges and trees.

Naijasauce69:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-10/nigeria-plans-to-increase-forest-cover-to-25-of-landmass.

Nigeria is a continental leading force in landscaping, seeding, gardening, and reforestation. We’re greening neighborhoods and growing forest where they have or will exist. Our lush neighborhoods are well populated because people can actually afford to live there and not left mostly empty like in Kenya or Rwanda. Even in the future will be a major player in participating in terraforming the Sahara.

Contemporary Nigeria and West Africa at large is naturally a Tropical Eden. No filters needed. Even in our Sahelian and far northern region depending on the season sees numerous oasis and forest springing up. I can’t say the same for Kenya a natural desert savanna.

Nairobi at night has more light than Lagos in daytime

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIhBkqa3Ekc

Nairobi Muthaiga drive through; West Africa can learn about growing trees, hedges and grass from this;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1qf-qA-Ks3g

Nairobi, Luanda, Addis Ababa should be in top...that kind of listing is not serious.

68816419:
Fastest growing cities in Africa (2022)

Terrible idea with fuel levy now costing 75B. That is already nearly a billion dollar. Subsidies are terrible....except maybe well targetted small ones like farmers subsidies.

vizboy:
KPLC Receives 7 Billion Kenyan Shilling Subsidy To Reduce Bills By 15 Percent

The Kenyan Treasury has offered a 7.05 billion Kenyan Shilling subsidy to Kenya Power and Lighting Company, which is more commonly known as Kenya Power or KPLC in order to make it possible for the electricity distribution company to reduce the consumer electricity bills by an additional fifteen (15) percent without the move affecting its cash flows.



https://nexbitke.com/kplc-receives-7-billion-kenyan-shilling-subsidy-to-reduce-bills-by-15-percent/

Unfortunately the country cannot be run like private enterprise with moonshot ideas. Gov just need to do the basics very very well. In fact according to Ruto there is really no need for new ideas. The old ideas will customized from views of Kenyans.

Kenyans want common sensical issues fixed for them...roads, access to credit, piped water, dairies, more feed for their cows, very very basic stuff.

So Ruto will have 47 Manifestos. 1 diaspora minifesto - with a minister. And national manifesto.

The 47 county manifesto will focus on BASIC for each county - some will be want tourism - some cattle keeping - some coffee farming. They will be SMART - costed, realistic and achievable.

Where Ruto excel is in execution of common sensical reform that will not cost a lot of money. Some of them dont even cost anything.

kikuyu1:
What I need to hear is outside the box thinking and specifics on these issues,mzee. Eg,after all this time we're mainly still relying on rainwater for farming. In the early 70s a feasibility study found it workable to pump water from L Vic to Timboroa 120 km away at 10000 ft,the highest point west of the highlands providing drinking water and irrigation for all towns and urban centres in the region and the lake basin as it would flow back via simple gravity. The individual towns would be responsible for end consumer distro.
Knowing our climate and the economic challenges ASAL dwellers face what plans are there to reintroduce hunting? Those in the industry are benefiting majorly!


http://www.rojeleather.com/species-and-leathers/zebra-hides-and-rugs/

And dikdik,gazelles,eland,lions,leopards and on and on and on.


[url]https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989418302336#:~:text=Using%20multiplier%20analysis%20based%20on,than%2017%20000%20employment%20opportunities.[/url]

Iow,the neediest at the local level,the skinners,trackers and drivers benefit. That's why every state in the US allows hunting as well as every country in Europe-from Belgium,to the UK and the Scandis they allow wild boar,red stag and moose hunting. But here we burn wildlife trophies worth millions to the empty applause of neurotic Westerners and their local disciples.
Good to see the social housing will continue-its the surest way to poverty reduction but I can't object more to scrapping of the CBC. Living in Africa and among Africans I long ago realised 2 things:
-Nothing is perfect
-Change is ALWAYS resisted
It would be a disaster to succumb to emotional complaints and go back to the 8-4-4 system also for sociocultural reasons. We need to make niggas move out of their comfort zone! We need to learn to make progress,difficult as it may be and not stagnate.
On security we need a fair firearms bureau or a tribunal! I'm the last to advocate arming Somalis,single mothers,Kisiis and Merus with micro uzis but frankly seeing unarmed victims of cattle rustlers constantly crying for police reservists and protection is too much. Fyi,some people in Laikipia have long abandoned cattle keeping! We need a transparent licencing not just for Elites but for all. Rmbr,the Westgate would've been a complete massacre but for the few armed civvies.
If you get me smth solid on these issues before the 30th,the better. If you agree with anything steal my ideas and talk to his team.

Jubilee party popularity has now reduced to 2-3 percent. That is some indictment. And current economic woes doesnt help his case at all...with Kshs weakening to 120...fuel crisis like never before.. food prize through the roof. Uhuru is going home very unpopular.

April he was 4-5 percent - now I have seen he is 2-3 percent - just about where weed advocate Wajackoyah is.

tylann:
Uhuru kenyatta has outperformed kibaki by far in terms of economy if he could have stand again I would give him my vote

Without Uganda oil - it may be hopeless - as recoverable oil is very little to attract investment. But we already trucked some of it and sold it.

Kazikazi:
where is your turkana oil?

do u think talking with empty staving mouth will help you? why are u lacking skills to end hunger? i have no time arguing with a starving man,sorry go first learn how to feed yourselves as a country

Human capital is blocking that Natural Capital. Kenya professionals are some of Africa best and can help you fasten the process. I am sure you have translate everything to Kiswahili and taken months to understands.

This why Kenya despite all that semi-aridness is waay ahead of Tanzania

Kazikazi:
but son,how can we hire a starving man for a job which costs billions of dollars? just imagine,a guy cant feed himself,cant end tribalism,then how can the same man be able to do engineering stuff? madness

remember the cost of a project is now 40b by the latest estimates

With your usual slow pace; you may never see it in your lifetime. Uganda oil discovered in 2006 - by 2025 - 20yrs later it would still be stuck underground. Tanzania the same story. You need to hire Kenyans.

Kazikazi:
tanzania


Tanzania Inks Deal With Shell, Equinor for $30-Billion LNG Terminal
Tanzania has signed an LNG framework agreement to reboot a plan to build an LNG export terminal on the Indian Ocean.
June 14, 2022
The government of Tanzania has signed a liquefied natural gas (LNG) framework agreement with the UK’s Shell and Norway’s Equinor that is expected to kick-start construction of a $30- to $40-billion LNG export terminal to commercialize the country’s deepwater offshore gas reserves.

The deal signed by the three parties on 11 June is foundational to the Tanzanian government’s issuance of a Host Government Agreement (HGA) later this year which will outline the project’s technical, commercial, and legal terms, according to Bloomberg.

Front-end engineering and design (FEED and pre-FEED) will be completed within 3 years of HGA signing, with a final investment decision targeted in 2025. A 4- to 5-year construction period will follow with a first LNG drop planned by 2029–2030.

The plant will be built at the East African nation’s southern coastal town of Lindi. It will be linked via a 100-km subsea pipeline to significant deepwater gas discoveries off Tanzania’s southern coast and have a 30-year life span, according to Equinor.

If all goes as planned, 2025 will be significant also as the year Tanzania becomes a transit state for crude oil passing from Uganda’s Lake Albert development through the East African Crude Oil Pipeline to be exported through the Tanzanian port town of Tanga.

Tanzania LNG render_1.png
Tanzania LNG render_2.png
An artist’s rendering of Tanzania’s future LNG export and gas processing facility at the town of Linde and the deepwater upstream operation offshore that will provide the gas resource. Source: Equinor

Regulatory delays had stalled construction of the LNG project during Tanzania’s late President John Magufuli’s tenure in office, but his successor and current president, Samia Suluhu Hassan, reignited discussions shortly after taking office a year ago, Aljazeera reported. First talks regarding the plant were initiated in 2014. But now there is a new sense of urgency.

Tanzania is among the gas-rich African nations that now see LNG exports as a way to transform their economies in light of today’s geopolitical realignment of energy trade and the opening of new market opportunities. Energy Minister January Makamba singled out Asia as Tanzania’s No. 1 target market given his country’s geographic position on the Indian Ocean, during the LNG signing ceremony.

Developing New Gas Resources
With regard to the development of Tanzania’s gas resource base, Shell currently operates Block 1 and Block 4 offshore where it has discovered 16 Tcf (453 Bcm) of recoverable natural gas. Shell holds a 60% interest in a production-sharing agreement (PSA) with the Tanzanian government that expires in 2024. Other partners include Pavilion Energy (20%) and Jakarta-based Medco Energy (20%).

Pavilion is a subsidiary of Temasek, a global investment company based in Singapore that is focused on LNG shipping and trade in Asia and Europe. Medco has exploration and production operations in Indonesia, Mexico, Libya, and Tanzania as well as interests in power, gas trading and mining, according to the companies’ websites.

Equinor operates Block 2, where it has drilled more than 15 exploration wells since 2011 resulting in nine discoveries at water depths of 2500 m with an estimated 20 Tcf of gas, according to Equinor’s website. The Norwegian major plans to develop the field using subsea wells located on the seabed to avoid having to build expensive facilities at sea level.

Equinor entered the Tanzania market in 2007 after having signed a PSA for Block 2 with Tanzania Petroleum Development Corp. (TPDC). Equinor has a 65% operating interest in Block 2, while ExxonMobil holds a 35% working interest. TPDC has the right under the PSA to participate with a 10% interest.

Overall, Tanzania estimates its recoverable offshore reserves at more than 57 Tcf (1,630 Bcm) which are reported to be the sixth-largest in Africa.

Hassan as well as leaders of other gas-rich African countries have been floating the idea that the continent has the resources to join other global LNG producers in supplying Europe as the EU seeks to end its energy dependence on Russia.

But, as several leaders among those representing the 11 nations present at the Gas Exporting Countries Forum held in Qatar on 22 February (2 days before Russian troops crossed into Ukraine) pointed out, significant investment would be needed to develop new gas infrastructure capable of replacing current Russian imports. Also, Europe would need to sign long-term contracts, Aljazeera noted in its coverage of the forum.

Europe for the most part has moved away from long-term agreements over the past decade, preferring the flexibility of spot market purchases of fossil fuel, especially considering the push to replace carbon-intensive oil and gas with green, low- or no-carbon renewables.

There is also political risk. While Tanzania may be stable, it had planned to join with neighboring Mozambique in a wider vision to create a greater East African LNG hub. But it is uncertain when Mozambique’s stalled LNG development might get back on track after an insurgency caused France’s TotalEnergies to declare force majeure on its multibillion dollar operation in April, 2021.

Equinor Tanzania blocks.png

Kenya politics is tribal. Nakuru is 50 percent Kikuyu; 30 percent Kalenjin; 20 percent others (Gusii, Luhya, Maasai and Luo). Nakuru is obvious - UDA/Ruto will carry the day. Kikuyus in Nakuru and Eldoret - and in most of Rift Valley - are voting peace - they want to continue peaceful co-existence with Kalenjin after 92-07 PEV - that is why not a single MP apart from Arama(Gusii) is in Jubilee - all of them joined UDA. Only Lee is stuck and is going home. The same scenarios play in Narok, Kajiado and Tranzoia - where Kalenjin/Kikuyu constitute a significant minority - that basically decide the seats.


Discuss something else. Politics you're toddlers.

Tayser:
That's the problem of living in a bubble/echo chamber. Whatever he is saying has very little to do with reality. In reality Azimio has nearly 3/4 of Kenyan counties under wraps. KK is banking on the north Rift and Central, and in both areas Azimio will eat a significant chunk. Nakuru for instance, my home county is overwhelmingly pro Azimio yet it's in the rift and has a huge number of voters. The rest of the country is solidly behind the old man.

Common sense is free available.
What ails Nigeria power sector.
Broke Distro and Gen companies.
Why are they broke.
Nigeria dont pay for power - quick search - "Nigeria’s metered customers rise 17.7% to 4.7m"
Kenya has 8.1M metered customers. South Africa has 17M.
Nigeria if we assume at 50 percent electricity supply and urbanization - should have about 40-50 Million households.
If half are supplied - it should have 20M metered customers - half the household.
Lagos alone if it has 20m - with average urban household size of 3 - should have 7M metered connections.

You cannot fix problem by bringing in new hardware.
Fix Gen and Distro companies by aggressive metering.
Inject capital to those companies.
And let them go buy whatever they need.

But if Buhari calls SIemens and say he has 10B dollars - they will supply him all sort of things.
After three months - they will be broken down or vandalized or sabotaged - by same Gen/Distro companies.
And they will be too broke to do anything.

COMMON SENSE: CASHFLOW IN YOUR UTILITY COMPANIES is the problem.

Injecting CASH wont help. FIX CASH FLOW...so money rotate in the entire energy sector...and problems will disappear.

It's like treating aenemia through blood transfusion without fixing the cause of anemia.

popizaino:
Not even most but all problems can be solved used common sense and in the case of our epileptic power supply we will have to pay those expertise who bring the sense on board.