₦airaland Forum

I know KDF capability - fighting outsiders - I know KDF incapability fighting internal enemy like Kalenjin. First no Kalenjin in army will accept to fight their own people pursuing just cause. So first understand you'll get Ethiopia civil war - where Tigray simply desert - with weapons or not.
First police - GSU or APS - simply cannot handle Kalenjin warriors armed with rudimentary weapons - leave alone guns.
KDF the same - if it comes to gun fight - they will run.
So that leave Kenya having to bomb maize fields and forests

Underrate Kalenjin war machine at you own peril. I have seen it up close and personal twice - 92 when I was small boy and 2007 when I was older. How kalenjin can turn one minute from peace to war machinery is incredible.

The British saw it in 1890 to 1906 - just small band of Nandi about 2,000 men - fighting for 15yrs - at some point against entire East Africa Brits army then. And without cold blood murder of Koitatel under the guise of peace negotiation - Nandi would probably have been left alone as independent state.

Again unless you're prepared for a long drawn war - when economy is already sick - then pray for Kenya.

Heck without internal support of GEMA - I think war will end easily - because Kikuyus will join in

In short - Uhuru had better pray we have very free and fair election - if Ruto loses fairly - I dont see any problem.

Sending water cannons hoping to scare kalenjin has to be most laughable thing he has done so far. He needs to sober up, allow Chebukati to hand certificate to Ruto, negotiate bankruptcy proceedings as their wealth has to be nationalized, go to exile in shame and spend the money they have abroad.

I dont see any other peaceful resolution to the stalemate.

NTSA:
Overstatement ...seems you are ignoring the simple concept of force multiplication ,density of Fire and manuaver warfare.

Ruto is calling for an international press conference tomorrow - like I said - unless you're a slowpoke - keep your passport and your family very intact. What I know for a fact - Ruto cannot and wont be rigged without dire consequence. The dire consequence will be end of kenya as we know. I am not sure what extend he will go - but I know Museveni and Kiir are on board Ruto - and will be very happy to provide arms - if shiet was to hit the fan. Kalenjin warriors are ever prepared - just waiting for the signal from Ruto - to get started - and in an hour - they will transform into a fighting force - that police will not contain.

It's upon Uhuru to accept to be liquidated - otherwise he will just mess kenya. Uhuru had better accept to be bankrupted in Kenya, go to exile abroad and keep the pandora money. He took war to wrong guys - and he has to accept the consequences without taking everyone down with him.

Taking water cannon to Kalenjin land - he must be out of his mind.

For this will be Ethiopia or South Sudan scenario playing out.

Didnt Kibaki unleash KDF in Nakuru....when police split into factions?
Kalenjin warriors evicted 0.6M people in 48hrs - something that left even the US totally astonished.
Kibaki had to share power because after KDF from Lanet were deployed - the next was the END of KENYA.
Because once KDF split into factions - we are kaput - and they will because the tribal contours are huge.

Moi and Ruto have managed not to escalate the Kalenjin into a fighting force - except for small section around Pokot.
Can police or KDF beat Pokot - even now - NOPE. They struggle mightly.
When some few SLDF were armed - possibly 1,000 people with 100 guns - Kenya Police failed to contained them.
It took the intervention of KDF - to quash them.

Now imagine if Ruto was to provide kalenjin proper with say 10,000 guns and bullets.
If they did - by simply providing such light weapons.
Kenya is kaput kaput.

The reason is obvious - KDF plus kenya police - at best can raise 25K plus 75K - say 100K fighters(1/4 of them I bet are kalenjin) - Kalenjin the way the community is wired can easily raise a million fighters - rudimentary trained - but with two months of training can become as good as kDF

The power matrices changes completely.

Read Waki report....

“lots of serious coordination and logistics
put in place for the warriors to approach Eldoret town from all directions at the
same time”, noting that in his area he observed over 5,000 in one go and that
they smeared themselves with the blood of the victims they had killed. He said
that friends who were under attack and called him from other areas observed
large bands of between 5,000- 7,000 youths approaching from Burnt Forest.

NOw imagine one front has 7,000 forces (give them guns) - entire KDF has 25K force - significant numbers are kalenjin in that security sector - you'd have to unleash bombs/drones/rockets to even out things.

Kenya police simply collapsed in 48hrs and became IDP centers. They couldnt move because all roads were blocked in 24hours.

NTSA:
At times you exaggerate too much

Kenya not going Nigeria way - Ruto's billboard on what Raila leadership means - the guy can barely stay awake

Choice has never been clear - a brilliant 55yr old going for his maiden run & win - versus a senile 78 yr old going for his 5th (6th if you include 1982 coup) loss

If we exclude Discovery Research and Strategic Africa - this how it looks like now.

MzeeMwenyewe1:
Tifa polls Raila 49% Mwizi 41%

It's very sad that desperate president knowing he is getting liquidated next week want to plunge the country into violence and civil war - then next week they will be crying and begging Ruto to stop Kalenjin - and descent into civil war.

Look like they never learn. They we will hear cries for international community to intervene. Right now Kalenjin are sitting pretty because they just need an hour - to mobilize - it's almost 7 million people to such a fighting force - a civil war will be inevitable in a week.

"“The Kalenjins just like many other
pastoralist communities tend to be militarily organized and can respond to
perceived threats in an organized manner. This rapid and organized reaction is
what most people have confused for pre-planning of violence.”
"Variances of the “Kalenjin
culture” theory aimed to explaining some cultural predilection of Kalenjins to
engage in warfare were offered by a former Rift Valley PPO when, answering the
question whether violence in North Rift was spontaneous or planned. He told the
Commission that the violence was probably spontaneous because “the Kalenjins
require just a war cry... They don’t need to plan. You injure one kalenjin they respond immediately"

In 5 days - we will know which opinion pollster are credible or not - I think we can generally agree that it very hard to corrupt or rig IEBC election.

Obiano13:
Forget the fake opinion polls commissioned by Mwizi to save face. Out of the pollsters below IPSOS is likely to be the mos correct, they predicted 2017 better than the rest.



FYI riot police trucks are being ferried to your homeland, the defacto new opposition stronghold of Kalenjin Rift Valley where tantrums are expected next week after your son is politically emasculated. Enyewe Mungu Si Kipmeno!

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-08-02-state-deploys-additional-security-in-parts-of-rift-valley/

Ruto has no chance of fomenting chaos next week. He is headed behind bars at Kamiti Maximum where he can cry for weeks on end with no interruption.

Kalenjin - and water canon; What for . Kalenjin are not going to start any war until this over; I dont think you understand how disciplined and well organized our people are. The day Ruto says start. You'll see kenya police shaking in their booths.

Like in 2007 - Kalenjin will take 24-48 hours to overrun police from Mt Elgon to Nakuru town - from West Pokot to Narok - and the army will be deployed on 3rd day - and then civil war will start.

Our people are laughing at those jokes. Those ones should be taken to Kisumu - to deal with stones throwing.

For Kalenjin - you need to prepare KDF - kenya police cannot handle anything - kalenjin are going to deploy millions of warriors who will fight at night - during the day they will be resting - at middle of the night they go for the police - what will those things help you If Kalenjin get 10k guns - Kenya is over and done with. Those 10K guns can hold the KDF until it's split into factions.

Dont even think of waking the monster that is Kalenjin warriors - in the day and age when Ruto has almost cult like following. You just want kenya to join failed states.

Obiano13:
Police Water cannon trucks being ferried to RVP's homeland of Kalenjin Rift Valley to quell expected chaos after their kingpin, a known thief and murderer is beaten

@RVP If you see this parked around your hood, just behave.

Weeeh! Police water cannons trucks transported. pic.twitter.com/vw7WCdg1T2

— Kawangware Finest ™ - Geoffrey Moturi (@cbs_ke) August 2, 2022

Dont sweat it. We have 5 days to go. We will comeback and see if NIS were right. What is more concerning is to see desperate ODM trying to incite hate in RV - I think deep state has given up - and now Junet-Joho shallow ODM state has taken over - printing leaflets,deploying police and releasing edited hate videos.

MzeeMwenyewe1:
Kenya has gone to the dogs, you mean there are people who take Moses Kuria words as nuggets of wisdom The person who laughed at the death of Chris Musando, the man who flushes middle fingers in rallies.

When did NIS conduct and release those polls. Bring their website, if you can't puliz spare the international readers the misinformation. I know you are desperate to find credibility but this is too low for you.

Let's see look like Kenya's National Intelligence Services - duly informed the CIA - where premium tears will be loading - Kisumu - not the neigberhouring county of Kericho - where I call home . In Kericho we will be drinking non stop for a week

What Ruto has done is astounding - beating combined gov and opposition is no joke.

MzeeMwenyewe1:
The kind of shock awaiting you is unimaginable, for now enjoy yourself on Nairaland.

And mine is every more adverse for your side. You wont be laughing next week.
My prediction is 55 percent win for Ruto - and Raila will 44 percent.
I am predicting UDA will win half counties, senators and women rep.
UDA will also win 150Mps - bringing total 180Mps.
Now add Ford-K/ANC/Small parties - you're starring at a disaster

MzeeMwenyewe1:
My response

I have seen two opinion polls of Mombasa - showing Sarai dramatic rise. So it's not just Mizani. Mike Sonko broke the Joho& coastal cabal bottle and got the genie (jinis ) out. You cannot bottle it back. The Wabaras(upcountry) are now incited and they want nothing to do with Joho and his project Abdulnassir. Sarai is very lucky man.

MzeeMwenyewe1:
Mizani has lost the little credibility they have when they say Sarai will trounce Abdulswamad. The reason they're citing is because of sonko who decamped 2 days ago
Though I am biased but let me tell you Maina there's no competition between the two, we the Mombasa people cancelled Sarai long time ago. Any other person other than him could give ODM a run for their money but Sarai.. HELL NO!

I dont think US has interfered. They are warning their own citizen. In 2013 - US & EU - were openly threatening kenyans with consequence if we elected ICC indicted persons. We did. And from that time - US and EU - realized kenya politics and moral compass is alien to them.

I have worked with few CIAs and foreign service - they know their stuff - trust when they say violence will likely happen in Kisumu - they know Raila has lost.

Kenya gov is desperately pulling last minute stunts - but they are not working. Attempts to cause tribal tension btw Kalenjin and Kikuyus have failed - because an idiot can see through it - why would Ruto self-immolate by threatening kikuyus who are majority voting for him?

My friend - prepare for big loss - kenyans are getting rid of dynasties - Raila, Kenyatta, Mois - and all their tentacles will be plucked out from next week - and by dec 25th christmas - we will be done with them.

They will be running like Guptas and Zumas.

MzeeMwenyewe1:
In 2013&17 you said Kenya is a sovereign state and it won't back down to pressure from US and EU, this time round the chicken seller went crying to the same people that the election is not free and fair
We will reiterate your message that Kenya is a sovereign state and we have our own internal Mechanism which have Identified North Rift as a potential clashes zone, GSU officers are been deployed as we speak.
Regarding kisumu, there's no need to panick because its going to be a friendly celebration like the ones witnessed when we got independence.... Freedom is here

Seem we got one more - this one is like IRS - near factual.

Discovery Research Services operate in the SADC countries carrying out qualitative and quantitative studies. Countries we operate are ,Zimbabwe,Zambia,Malawi.Angola,Botswana,Mozambique

Yes - IPSOS - did also release the first and last survey - so far we know IPSOS (Only one poll) & InfoTRASH are predicting Raila lead - but not a win. Mizani & IRS are predicting Ruto win. Radio Africa & TIFA are saying it's too close to call.

Mizani has been revelation in the number of polls they are doing - they are almost doing political polling as their only business. I did analyze their performance against UDA nomination - they were pretty good.
TIFA is okay as long as Tom Wolf is there - he is best of the worst. IPSOS fired him and now they have some joker doing their polls.
The least said about InfoTrash the better
Radio Africa have been doing monthly - and before that quartely polls for a long time - I'd say they've done a great job

MzeeMwenyewe1:
Speaking of facts where did you leave IPSOS

IRS has done the most comprehensive of surveys - https://irs.co.ke/ - and they show Ruto win is big.
NIS knows Ruto is winning.
US gov knows Ruto is winning - CIA do these kind of opinion polls - and know the winner months ahead.
Now US embassy predicting violence in Kisumu - that means Raila stronghold will see violence - because he will lose.
Meanwhile desperate Uhuru and his gov are trying to pull all kind of last minute stunts - but the dye is cast.
All the desperation - are making the bad situation worse - Unga/Maize floor subsidy(bribe) - has now turned into another petrol - from high prices to complete shortage/starvation.
And you expect voters to reward Uhuru with a 3rd term.

MzeeMwenyewe1:
Mizani Africa the one created in 2020 without a physical address or résumé that shows sarai will win Mombasa gubernatorial by 42% because of sonko effect
I stay in Mombasa and if Sarai will get even 30% let alone winning i'll deactivate my Account

Kibaki was 71yrs in 2002 and 76yrs in 2007 when he went for re-election; Your old due is 78yrs and can barely stay awake; he'd put Buhari to sleep.

MzeeMwenyewe1:
How old was Kibaki when he was elected in 2002?? An old man is better than a thief and a murderer.

Learn to be factual so you can deal with reality in few days.
There were 2 national polls yesterday - InfoTrak (sponsored by Nation) - as you know that is Raila propaganda wing - Raila led by 49 percent
And Mizani Africa - new kid on the block (we will see how good or bad they are) - Ruto had clear first round win.

TIFA released Nairobi and Kajiado polls.

MzeeMwenyewe1:
Out of the 3 polls conducted yesterday by Ipsos, Nation and Tifa.. Raila is leading in ALL of them. The journey to sugoi has never been clearer

KCB follows Equity to DRC Congo
https://twitter.com/moneyacademyKE/status/1554498138496548865
KCB Group to acquire DR Congo based Trust merchant Bank (TMB).

TMB is one of the largest banks in Congo with an asset base of Ksh 179 billion assets.

KCB will first acquire 85% of the bank for at least 2

Let me help with data because I have done this since 2005,

As we come to the close - here are the figures

Ethnic driven predictive modelling.

1) My well acclaimed Mother of All SpreadSheet (MOASS) is predicting 54.5% win for Ruto and Raila at 44.5%. Waja & company 1% - rounded off.
2) My competitor in the business - Dr Charles Hornsby (Oxford and deeply studied kenya politics) - latest prediction was Ruto narrow win of 52 percent against Raila 48.
http://www.charleshornsby.com/kenya-blog

Now looking at final polls they are all over the map

Those predicting a Raila win - that is contigent on undecided votes - to cross 50% plus one for 1st round.
- InfoTrak/Nation - 49 Raila versus 41
- Ipsos - 47 Raila - versus 41 Raila
- Strategic Africa -

Those predicting too close to call - within their margin of error
-TIFA - 47 Raila versus 44 Ruto
-Radio Africa/Star - 46 Ruto versus 45 Raila

Those predicting a Ruto win
- IRS - 53 Ruto versus 42 Raila.
- Mizani Africa - 51 Ruto versus 45 Ruto
- RankAfrica - Ruto was leading

Now pick your poison - add all the rigging - and then in few days we shall see

[quote author=MzeeMwenyewe1 post=115313188]6 days to polls Raila and is leading by 6% according to IPSOS, Kateni miti sugoi kuna watu wajinyonga

https://twitter.com/NationAfrica/status/1554361501644980224?s=20&t=doiemO0xx3P4uXufyzTHMw[/quote]

Yes, age is not on his side, he is 80yrs - unofficially he is 78. He applies black dye on his hair to conceal his old self.

vankelvin:
If Raila Odinga loses this election then that will be it for him

Ruto healthcare plan - Kenya spend 5.5B on healthcare per annum. Target to remove 1.5B dollars out of pocket expenditure. Through reorganizing - primary health insurance - secondary - and tertiary healthcare

Did you know 1/3 Kenyan families are at risk of impoverishment by hospital bills? Guess what. If instead of family mchangos, loans selling cows etc we did one national mchango, we’d only put in 3k/ person to forget hospitals bills. #ThePlan for healthcare. pic.twitter.com/WVOupR77Fd

— David Ndii (@DavidNdii) July 31, 2022

Kenya elections 2022.

With exactly a week to go. Ruto has 10 percent lead in IRS poll - the only serious pollster - who do extensive polls of 20K (because kenya is complicated tribal country).

Meanwhile Mike Sonko - is flipping Mombasa and possibly Nairobi. In short Ruto is heading to an overwhelming win - 60% percent is possible.

My final figures were 55 versus 44 percent - with 1 percent for others.

I might have to revise this upwards..

It's Uhuru who committed a fatal mistake this week by threatening folks. Now Ruto, Rigathi, Kuria and Ndidi have run with "my life is in danger" - I dont see how Uhuru can comeback from that.

As for Smartmatic - they didnt catch anything - the caught three storekeepers/logistic officers - carrying useless barcode serials (even smallest supermarket generate those). They eventually coiled their tails and allowed them to continue their work - basic logistics of distributing KIEMS kit.

Rigging kenya election in this day and age is very hard - they are many layers of oversight - which is why it's world most expensive election - after the one the UN used to conduct in Afgan.

We have a week to go - and we terminate very many political deadwoods.

Obiano13:
Freedom is here! After Odinga wins Gachagua must go to jail for looting public funds. If he can steal over 1.5 B as MP imagine what he would do as DP?? This time there will be no Uhuru to save Arap Mwizi fro ICC. After sensing heavy defeat he wants to incite his Kalenjin kinsmen to violence. Won't fly this time round. You thought you owned Smartmatic and IEBC to rig yourself in. The plans have been thwarted by the hawk eyed security. Your man is fully cornered. All that remains is to incite ethnic strife. Fortunately not even Kalenjins are interested in violence anymore. Kenyans said no to violence after 2007.

Dr Ndii explain Bottom Up economic revolution that Kenya's Hustler Nation (Poor Man) revolution will unleash to triple the economy in less than 10yrs.

What is #BottomUpEconomicsKE ? pic.twitter.com/oBLXW7h315

— David Ndii (@DavidNdii) July 29, 2022

I dont think DO has anything to worry. Today from Meru to Embu - the rallies have been electric. Meanwhile in Mombasa - it appears ODM are in the ropes - two opinion polls - I have seen - show Ruto is flipping it - in addition to Kwale, Kilifi. Ukambani (ignore the InfoTrash) is going 50-50. Western is playing 50-50. Mt kenya and RV remain UDA strongholds. The loss coming Azimio way is going to be overwhelming. 10 days to go.

The Hustler Nation revolution will not be televised because Azimio own the mainstream media but it will shock you - kenyans are determined to sweep all the Moi-Kenyatta-Odinga dynastic families out - and the inflation has made it more urgent than ever.

Ruto will get them running to exile first as they are bankrupted for benefitting from grand theft and state capture - the mandate will be so huge - and they will have no political leverage to negotiate with.

You lost the propaganda war long time ago.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fDtQCHHSwZE

MzeeMwenyewe1:
Bwana DO is saying that he is being punished for winning the debate

Very good. The same ARA and KRA will be used to deal with Uhuru and Moi. They should not cry. It will be simple. Explain the source of your wealth or lose it. Their taxes will be backdated some decades back.

MzeeMwenyewe1:
The judiciary fact-checking Rigathi Gachagua.

And he killed it. Enough is Enough.

I am proud of him. Everyone I know who is his supporter is very proud of him. He aced very tough probing. He didnt commit any fatal error. At end the journalist were deflated.

Let see couple of opinion polls or some empirical data otherwise we can heckle each other till the sunset.

Raila was smart not to turn up...he is over

Obiano13:
Arap Machozi performed dismally. He turned himself into a circus, a laughing stock for the entire country. You should be thanking the power blackout. If that was the last political action, his last stance as you say, then its fair to say your man is packing his bags along with any remaining loot to Sugoi. The moderators turned him into a cry baby pronto, then refused to let him play victim. There was no sympathy addiction today. He was exposed and shown to lack the swift wit his daft supporters erroneously credit him for. The man has nothing in between his ears. When someone says the cattle rustling violence in his Kalenjin backyard is to punish him yet the same violence existed before he even joined politics you know he has completely lost his train of thought. Nothing flowed tonight. Azimio did a masterstroke.He showed up ready to play the victim card and tried to fix it even in areas it couldn't work. Nobody has sympathy for him tonight, even his followers are embarrassed.

We raise the kenya flag. Ruto will take it higher. We cannot be ruled by your small boys.
We produce exceptional humans every day
Kalenjin have put world record few humans will ever achieve
Remember Rudisha is kalenjin....so was Wanjiru

Daniel Komen - 3000M Mt everest of middle stiance running- will never be bettered by human except a kalenjin.For nearly 30yrs nobody has come remotely close to this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6gLVIAXWQo

Kipchoge put the marathon beyond human limit, It will take an exceptional human to beat this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MoxFkJlVZlA

Cheptegei has done it. It will take many years before someone beat this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GyBBtE3Az4

MzeeMwenyewe1:
No LOVE lost, we are ALL kenyans and kenya is our business.

We are very proud of our teeth.
We call ourselves people of good teeth.
People of milk
Only humans who drink and enjoy milk
The exceptional human race
In the last althetics..kalenjin won I think 15 medals in 4-5 countries. If kalenjin was a country - it would be smack second to US.
We are a special human race.
We are not your type of idiots.

In the entire human race,,,in any competitive event...no group of people have achieved as much as kalenjin have...in any discipline.

Kalenjin are exceptional human beings. The entire 7 billion people on earth...no people have our running or althetic talent...pick a random kalenjin boy or girl...we outcompete human race...

And it comes because we drink lots of milk..giving us good bones, teeth, etc

We produce talent by the second...almost every kalenjin kid born outrun the human race.

We are special type of human race...exceptional gifted in althetic...strong and brave.

"If you look at it statistically, it sort of becomes laughable," says David Epstein, a former senior writer at Sports Illustrated and author of the new book The Sports Gene.

"There are 17 American men in history who have run under 2:10 in the marathon," Epstein says. "There were 32 Kalenjin who did it in October of 2011."

MzeeMwenyewe1:
Kipmeno tell your people to brush their teeth, this is embarassing.

let get serious buddy - we are two weeks from sending your old dude to oblivion

MzeeMwenyewe1:
I didnt know you can lose in a debate with yourself..