₦airaland Forum

Yes IRS surveys are the best of the worse - Kenya opinion polls have long way to go - they so inaccurate they almost get it wrong every election. They still do 1500 sample in a complicated tribal country - and in era of very cheap telephone interviews. They have very little probative value except in an election where winner is obvious.

kikuyu1:
In 02 I knowingly voted for the loser. My ear to
the ground and opinion polls told me the idea of an Uhuru victory was a bridge too far but I had issues with Kibaki and doubted he could
contain RAO and happily pulled the lever for Uhunye: principles won out over reality. I said that to say this: everybody pls take a deep breath, count to three, exhale and R-E-L-A-X! We'll all be here on the 10th til 10/8/23 and beyond; ie we'll still be living with each other.
In the meantime check out what a credible opinion poll looks like.




https://www.kenyans.co.ke/news/77515-raila-trails-ruto-latest-popularity-poll-report

Observe methodology and sample size.



It should specify if the choice of respondents for sampling was randomised BUT it's accurate though def conservative.
Like I said, everyone chill and enjoy Ruto's swearing in a month later!

Verbiage.

Shma:
Catha edulis talks from a demented old man. Grow some nuts and drop the source. Don't conjure data from your @ss then try to prove a point. You can do better than this.

Your KK is already dead and forgotten. Don't punish your brain trying to speculate figures from miasma of your imagination.

56% is a dream you wish could come to pass... But simple advice, don't die in nairaland trying to stress a point we care less about. I have nothing to lose if KK wins... Maybe you have cos you sound like a shoddy businessman needing protection from the state.

No he doesnt. He always speak the truth.

Stubborn truth - Early this year - it already exceeded 100%
https://guardian.ng/news/nigeria-on-fiscal-cliff-as-debt-service-trounces-revenue/#:~:text=This%20is%20the%20first%20time%20the%20country...&text=for%20price%20instability-,Hard%20times%20are%20already%20here%20for%20the%20Federal%20Government%2C%20hard,or%20exceed%20100%20per%20cent.
Hard times are already here for the Federal Government, hard, as its debt servicing exceeded retained revenue by as much as N310 billion in the first four months of 2022. This is the first time the country’s debt service to revenue ratio would hit or exceed 100 per cent.

Now I am reading things have gone further haywire....as of mid this year.

Bloodofthelambo:
shma was right to have called you an old man with dementia,

Everyone knows that, that guy spews lies 99℅ of the time except you.

Let me cut you some slack. You're learning the ropes. We can only have sane conservation after 9th August. If you will show up here.

Your old dude is getting a beating of his life.

Remember these figures on the morning of 10th August. Raila 7m(43-44%). Ruto 9m (55-56%). In about 16M of the total votes.

Shma:
Gibberish.

Nigeria operate on it's own universe. Debt servicing ratio of 130 percent. Arent the oil revenues helping? But I read production has fallen to below a million barrels per day - below Angola.

SUFFERInSMILIIN:
Nigeria's debt to revenue generation is now 130%, unfortunately Nigeria is now with 30% more on every month than its total revenue generation which is being paid to debt. Just imagine if you get all the revenue in Nigeria you will still have to look for 30% more money to pay its debts.

52 hours later and power generation is still at 40 megawatts total National Grid collapse. To make matters even worse bandage in Niger state katsina state sokoto and kaduna are refusing the electricity people to solve the fault and maintain the power lines

There is a good reason why he has been rejected since 1982. We are two weeks from permanently ending his misery and then rescuing his people from his violent grip. The Luo Nyanza used to produce great brains and now it's a wasteland.

Siaya his home county lead in mortality rate.

Siaya records the highest crude death rate nationally, with 15.5 deaths recorded per 1,000 people while Makueni records the lowest with about 5.5 deaths recorded per 1,000 people annually

kikuyu1:
Imagine the wasted opportunity! The lost income locally, regionally and nationally from job losses and reduced forex earnings ....and people insist this clown will rescue us!?
Frankly you RAO fans be quiet, take several seats and hold that L forever!

You're really blowing a casket way before the 9th august . At least try to be coherent and stop trying to impress folks here with mumbo-jumbo that is foreign to English.

Let us try have an adult conservation.

I dont remember the last time I bought Kerosene. It must be about 20yrs ago when I last saw a kerosene stove and a lamp. I dont even see it being sold in petrol station anymore ever since it was forced to retail at same price as petrol/diesel. It was mostly being used by crooks to adulterate petrol and diesel - and frankly those panelist were more interested in side-shows than substantive issues. Price of bread, Ugali, rice, meat...yeah those kind of things I would expect someone would know.

Shma:
Don't trade with feelings. English contest is not the bone of contention, old man. Take your feelings and shove into your rotten bum . If you can't stand the truth like a real man, just get the f*ck out of my mention. The HELL!

Mind you, the kerosene price has nothing to do with the submission I gave, listen before yelling like a deranged pee-brained kid. everybody knows kero is bought in a petrol station. & If you suffer from selective amnesia - or dementia, then take the pills and calm down your old age disease.


THE HELL!

This as it should. At least Suluhu doesnt have Magufuli chip in the shoulder. Continue exporting raw materials to kenya. We will export finished goods you way.

We now have about 1 billion dollar trade.

Tanzania’s major exports to Kenya include cereals, wood and vegetables and Kenya’s exports to Tanzania include soap, coated flat-rolled iron, and packaged medicaments.

Kazikazi:
khekhekhekhekhekhekhekhe

So Itumbi has monopoly of fake accounts. Online polls have evolved. I personally keenly watch opinion polls including online ones. In early part of year Ruto was ahead. In mid feb-april - Raila caught up - when he signed Kalonzo. In May Raila was actually ahead of Ruto - this was Martha momentum period. Online polls around that period were neck to neck. Then Wajockayah happened in June.

From June 30th (July) when Ruto launched his manifesto - it been a rout - every opinion poll online - Ruto plays around 60 percent - Raila is struggling to get to 30% percent. I believe that was momentum from Manifesto Launch.Rigathi I believe has given Ruto yet another impetus. I expect Ruto to play around 65% of opinion polls online going forward...the thinking class definitely think Ruto ticket is now the most sensible choice. Next week Raila had better do a good job to turn the tables. Good luck - he will be facing a colossus

Regarding the debate - Rigathi went for jugular of Uhuru and Martha - and ignored Raila. It was a brilliant strategy. Martha was toungue-tied when confronted that Uhuru was Chairman of Azimio. When Martha tried to hit Gachagua on corruption - Gachagua fired back on BAT bribery and the went home to Kirinyanga land scandal.

All what was left of Martha after that was heap of make up badly applied and her kitenge dress. Gachagua walked away with the winner BY FAR.

MzeeMwenyewe1:
Online polls arenot the yardstick for measuring debates especially when you have people like itumbi. Let me give you this opportunity to tell me where he out gunned martha karua, i want to see the level of thinking of a Uda supporter.

Rigathi was winning by default because AZIMIO had caricatured him as a cartoon - and they believed their own propaganda. That is cardinal sin in politics. DO NOT CONSUME YOUR OWN PROPAGANDA.

Twitter, Facebook, Youtube. Everywhere there has been a poll - Rigathi won.

Look for all opinion polls done in twitter, youtube and facebook; find me one where Martha won.

This is tragic because AZIMIO decided to run propaganda that depicted Gachagua as incompetent buffon - for almost two months.
They should not have turned up for this debate - but they are foolish because they eventually believed in their propaganda.
Those of us who have watched Gachagua before - knows he became Ruto DPORK because he is very good debator, very good propagandist and very eloguent.

I really pity Azimio because this not debate like next week - I dont see any effect from Raila/Ruto - everyone knows Ruto is better communicator - nobody will be surprised that Ruto will come tops.

But for Azimio this very tragic - I see them losing 5-10% in Mt kenya - from little 20% they had- they caricatured Gachagua for months as unworthy buffon, believed in their own propaganda and then come the match up - everyone was surprised that Gachagua was lethal, well spoken presidential and passionate.

Lesson no 1 for Azimio. Never believe in your propaganda. Martha should not have shown up for debate. Gachagua badly needed this debate. Martha is well known...she didnt need to show up. Last minute she should have called in sick .

Uhuru in 2017 refused to participate in the debate because he didnt need it. Martha didnt need this debate to repeat herself - her brand is known - Gachagua badly needed it but pretended he wont attend until last minute. Raila-Ruto match up is for me no biggie - both are well known. Uhuru needed to debate Raila in 2013 - he didnt need it in 2017 because he was PORK - and he skipped it.

MzeeMwenyewe1:
It seems you dont know how twitter works. I have people who are part of itumbis bots, they each have 5 accounts on twitter, they send the links on kenya Kwanza whatsapps group and they disrupts polls. You think a fool like Gachagua can match karua? Did you see how the crowd was laughing at bwana DO despite been warned several times. You think twitter polls are a yardstick gor a debate. You are better than this lad.

That generally problem with Raila - he cannot run complex political strategy - like Ruto has done - because it takes more discipline, more handwork and organization skills. Raila cannot run a kiosk and has come this far because he is an Odinga.

So when this come to end in two weeks - it will come down to Raila leaving two birds in hand (NASA stronghold) to chase the one bird in the bush (Mt Kenya).

As for Ruto - he is effective, efficient and really work hard - always will be in office by 6am - the problem he isnt an economist of course - so he needs the like Ndii and other brilliant minds to give him a workplan. China and even close home Ethiopia managed to do miracles because they get brilliant people to come up with 5yr plan - and they religiously execute it. Chile under Pinochet got Chicago Boys - top economists - to come up with plan - and he delivered - made Chile the only developed country in Latin America- to join Argentina. Kagame does the same - get a plan and execute it with military precision.

The most important thing that is lacking in leadership is people who can get stuff done - without excuses.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSOdu0I6_Vk&feature=emb_logo
If you listen Ndii talk about Ruto these are the take aways to copy someone.

1) Ruto was a believer in these big infrastructure projects as a way of transforming the country (before Ndii changed his mind)

2) Ndii says Ruto actually tried to implement his plans on the ground during the 1st term i.e. he actually does what he says he is going to do (they built 10k roads; put 5 million people on the electricity grid although most couldn't pay; tried to revive the dairy sector through cooperatives by buying fridges & started in Muranga until uhuru stopped it)

3) Ndii says his alignment with Ruto began because of his efforts to stop the BBI which he believed was an attempt to reverse the 2010 constitution and was going to be a disaster for the country

4) After aligning with Ruto to stop the BBI, they then started talking about economics (ruto reached out to him) -- Ndii was the first to tell ruto that his plans to implement his ideas in the 2nd term didn't work because of state capture -- e.g. his idea to help dairy farmers would threaten the Kenyatta's brookside; Other idea's would threaten northlands. Sounds like this was when ruto knew it was over.

5) Ndii has managed to change Ruto's economic ideology -- they will not focus on big infrastructure projects. Instead, they will focus on reviving the agricultural sector through cooperatives which make up 60% of Kenya's economy and get away from big projects.

6) The bottoms-up approach was worked on and sold for 4 years at the ground level (they totally out worked and out smarted uhuru who never seems to have seen this coming)

The alliance of Ndii and Ruto might just work. Uhuru was just out-worked ( he was too focused on stealing) and they just out smarted everyone else in Uhuru's camp.

Saddamochieng00:
I'm now totally convinced that Ruto could very well surpass your projections. Raila keeps on repeating the same mistakes and this time round, the punishment will be heavy. His bases in Western, Gusiiland and Coast have slowly slipped away from him and I foresee Ruto doing better numbers than Jubilee (in 2017) in these three regions. This was his last chance and he blew it big time just as he's the done every other chance he got.

Ruto is a brilliant mind and I have high expectations of him. He has a clear plan and a team that's devoted to the same vision and I believe we're on our way to upper middle income country status and our GDP growing exponentially .

Uhuru has two weeks to make his last pitch on Mt Kenya. He has serious trust deficit and is pushing an ever harder product in Mt kenya - Raila. Let see if they will pull all the stops the last minute. I know they have rolled out the prov administration but they dont seem ready to spend money - they are giving them 1k . Martha might have destroyed herself yesternight - and the 20% I expected they would get in Mt kenya - might just halved into 10 percent.

Saddamochieng00:
The moderators tried diverting into unimportant issues but still Rigathi came out on top. Mount Kenya has made its decision.

Ruto speaks to South Africa SABC.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AtMjTYr6osk

You have one lonely apartment and you're all over the map.

samorobo:
Ikoyi a very big neighborhood with so many sub -wealthy neighborhoods under its wings.
This is also ikoyi .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3Q_huF6j1A
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAE0WwwXJFg
Now this is Westland . What is it about Westland from the aerial view that would make Westland pass as wealthy and ikoyi pass as middle class. You talk a lot.
Wait for the guy to get to the rooftop then you see what I am saying.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLYXOMCkFHQ

Looks good but for the wealthiest neigberhood...that looks more middle class.

samorobo:
Amazing property with an amazing view.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=prOBUeF2aGc

Yes the coast is slipping away. I have seen Raila rallies in Mombasa today, Kwale and Taita Taveta - very low key. It's really difficult time for any incumbent candidate to campaign (self-inflected destruction by Raila) - economic situation worldwide- is hurting people. Looking at the opinion polls - and taking them at their highest - they remind of 2010 referendum - where undecided voters remain very high - till election week. Come election day - the Nos did very well - scoring 32% against project 20% - because like now (Ruto folks are mostly unwashed poor hustlers) - the Nos where mostly poor christian fundamentalist- while the Yes were mainstream - shied away. So generally prepare for "shocking" margins of defeat of Raila.

My predictive model looks like this.

Total Registered votes 22.1M
National Avg Turn out 73% - down from 78% in 2017
Expected Total Votes 16.3M
Ruto win 54% of 8.7M
Raila second 44% of 7.2M
Waja & Mwaura score 1% of 231K.

GOV SEN WOW MPS
UDA 24 26 26 148
ODM 7 11 9 43
JUBILEE 2 2 1 25
WIPER 4 3 5 25
UDM 4 3 2 12
ANC 2 0 1 12
FORDK 2 1 1 12
DAP 1 0 0 6
KPU 1 0 0 6 1
OTHER 0 1 2 1
TOTAL 47 47 47 290

Both sides right now are trying to see who can outrig or sabotage the election. Uhuru knows it's gone but he is not going down without a fight. The political risk therefore of a 2007 kind of meltdown is very high. But given their defeat is overwhelming....my numbers I suspect are about 2-3% underrating Ruto victory - that are disguised now as undecided voters - they will fold their camp. But again expect all kind of shenagians and prepare yourself accordingly.

kikuyu1:
He disappointed me! Was again in Msa and Kwale and confirm Ruto has a solid support base,moreso in the latter where he's positively identified with road projects.

I dont remember. I remember saying they are his strongholds. I have kept tabs of opinion polls data over the last two years - Mt kenya remain Ruto stronghold. Uhuru lost the war in the battle of Kiambaa.

Tayser:
That statement applies more to you than me. Rem telling me how Ruto only needs the mountain and the rift. Now the tune has changed.

Nairobi has it tribal arithmetic.
Mt kenya (Kikuyus) 30%; Luo; Luhya; Kambas are 15% each; rest of tribes; 25% (mainly Gusii, Somalis, Kalenjin)
Now I keep track of all opinion polls.
Raila has edge in Nairobi of 10-20% in almost all.
Nearly all of them have 15-30% undecided voters?
Who are these undecided voters?
You can bet these are mostly lower class Nairobieans - who are mostly Ruto kind of supporters
I expect Raila will win Nairobi - but I think it will be close.
Something like 55 versus 45 - while Raila and Igathe have the tribal arithmetic in their favour - they dont have the message/ the economy is bad/ people are hurting.
Ruto has SONKO like messaging of 2017 and will suprise many by how he does in urban poor.

Raila cant save Igathe - Nairobi elected Sonko and Raila - ODM women rep won. Opinion polls show parties do not matter in Nairobi - people are voting individuals.

Maybe Raila & Kalonzo - can try to influence Nairobi Luo and Kamba and try to save Igathe - in the last week - that would make it go to the wire.

As of now - Sakaja in poll I saw is now into 60 percent - Igathe 30 percent - Igathe had better just shut up and not say anything more - and hope Raila can carry him along

Tayser:
The same Nairobi where Raila won with 54% against a combined uhuruto with 46% in 2017? Bro. This time round Ruto will struggle to even get 30% in the city. Igathe was never doing well, in fact he was floored in the debate. Sakaja was doing marvelous and most people would have given him the seat despite the deep state and degree issues. BUT Once Rao endorses him the ball game will change completely. He will floor Sakaja.

All you entire theory is based on Mt kenya. I have done the maths. Raila would need to WIN 60 percent of Mt kenya to go 50-50 with Ruto. He aint even getting 20 percent . Ruto has run circles around Raila in almost every region.

Tayser:
That had nothing to do with what I wrote.

Tunnel vision. Ruto knew even before he signed 2013 deal with Uhuru that he wasnt going to get Mt kenya votes 100%. He knew the history. In fact Uhuru promised him his only vote - and he didnt promise him GEMA vote. From 2013 Ruto has been working on Plan A - which was to get votes from old KANU stronghold that had kept Moi in power for 24yrs. If you check how many trips Ruto has made to Coast, Western and such places they are staggering - and they are paying off.

Ruto has now definitely flipped Bungoma, Tranzoia, Turkana, Kwale, will take pastoral regions of Somalis (except for other seats), will take Vihiga by razor thin as Mudavadi is influential in Maragoli, will split Kakamega, has equal footing in Kilifi, name them. Ruto is doing well in Maasai land and related pastoral counties.

Remember in 2013 - Uhuru won only Mt Kenya and Kalenjin - elsewhere he was scoring single digits - Raila had almost 90% - what killed him was the turnout.

2017 - Ruto has improved Jubilee fortunes by innecessant campaigns - areas that voted Jubilee 4-10% like Western - were now doing 10-30% - Gusii had flipped - Coast had improved to 15% - Ukambani same 15-20%. Nationally Jubilee had improved 4% - all thanks to Ruto efforts.

This 2022 - Ruto has essentially beaten two heavy weights - one running the state and coming from Mt kenya - and Raila - by basically running rings all over the country - except Luo Nyanza. UDA is either most popular party or 2nd most popular party in all counties.

Come 9th August you will understand just how brilliant Ruto - he is an A grade Moi student. Moi was able to string unlikely win by focusing on small tribes - while in Mt kenya he was scoring zero, Luo Nyanza zero, most of Luhya zero votes. Yet Moi won with almost 40 percent. That is where Ruto learnt his politics.

You're overly focused on Mt kenya - and you wont know what it you come 10th - because Ruto as we speak is doing 10 rallies - has visited towns nobody has ever campaigned in since Moi era.

Such kind of hard-nosed grassroot focused economy that are well financed is the reason entire gov, deep state, system, Uhuru and Raila are hopelessly staring at their loss.

When it come IEBC - Ruto owns it. Chebukati is busy working to make sure there is only one name in certificate of winner - Ruto. Raila and company have come to that realization late - now they are stuck - they attack chebukati they sent away voters - so seem they have designed last minute to get parrallel tallying systsems, hire and train agents - . They are going to get eaten alive. Uhuru is drunkard - the ENGINE has always been RUTO.

Tayser:
You got it upside down bro. He is back because the people of the mountain are now less hostile and can listen to him. The fact that he is back tells you how deflated Ruto's camp is...

Any incumbent gov worldwide will struggle now leave alone those who were already struggling popularity wise. Joe Biden has gone from creating million of jobs and lifting US economy - to losing mid-term for sure & UK gov is home. The context is hyperinflation of basic commodities. People are not in the mood to listen to excuses - they are getting gutted by inflation.

For Nairobi - the urban poor - where food expenditure is half their expenditure - this are difficult times. Igathe was doing fine until he started Sakaja degree mess - Uhuru showed his direct hand by going all the way to Uganda Museveni to try block him. The debate yesterday essentially was the last nail on Igathe coffin. Nairobi is gone. Sakaja has won that one.

Nationwide - For every single Kikuyu vote ( he really cant influence even embu & meru at poiint) he tries to get - he is losing a luhya, a mijikenda and a kamba. He is making Raila & Martha a project.

He is essentially in damn if he does this; damn he doesnt.

NTSA:
Uhuru has brought back sonko to the campaign trail in Nairobi .A proof that azimio might be struggling .
Like I said Uhuru is the only man who can bring the necessary energy ,combat power and emotions in Railas campaign which is already doing badly.

I have no problem with nigerian music - I listen to them often - I get it - I dont get say indian or chinese or arabic music.

samorobo:
There is nothing to forget,the world is already addicted to its and that addiction will go on for the longest of time,so get use to it.
On the flip side,you try forgetting Nigerian music and let see how well you succeed with that.

I dont think Raila will even show up for the beating. It's a dog beating....Ruto winning margin now approaching 60

As of today he has asked IEBC to halt recruitment of election presiding officers - demands that are impossible - with only four weeks to go to the election d-day.

He tried manual lame excuse..chebukati told him...it will be there but kept at const store because it highly unlikely it will ever been needed...they are now six replacement voting kits...3 have to fails before a manual register with many signatures is allowed.

Few days ago he sent IEBC letter saying Kalenjin and biased election returning officers were many and placed in strategic counties constituting half the votes.

Prepare to demonstrate on the streets or I dont know how Raila is hoping to stop election. Maybe rush to court?

What does Raila and Uhuru knows...Ruto has opened a huge gap..NIS 10%..prov administration 12 percent...opinion polls (real - not doctored) show the same 10 plus margin.

And Ruto has the momentum from his 30th June manifesto - that was ground breaking in it's seriousness in identifying the problems and proposing realistic solution.

As for Gachagua - that man is submarine - you'll only know what hit you when day comes - he is working the real deep state and mt kenya everyday - while Martha is struggling to pay international muscians to attract crowds - and transport crowds.

Shma:
Trust me when I tell you it's vice-versa. Ruto is losing it. Martha's collaboration with Rao was the final nail in Ruto's coffin. I've been following the Azimio tour in Mount Kenya zone - and I can tell you that the tables have turned. The so-called UDA zone is no more. Rao/Martha doesn't need Uhuru at this point... Masses(from mount Kenya) knows already that Ruto disrespected him - and they will never choose him over Uhuru.

Ruto would have taken this seat easily - if he was patient enough to wait. Now all the big fish are turning against him. The worst thing he did was to pick Gachagua... Someone who can't even influence 1/4 of Kikuyu votes.

In a nutshell... Raila's campaign is gaining momentum every day. Ruto can't save himself from that.

Ethiopia our northern neigberhour did this a decade a go - and their train occasionally stall - electric train without stable electricity is madness. Our southern neighbour TZ - cannot run anything serious - that train will be stalling almost daily.

Kenya SGR is diesel run with option to upgrade to electric when we have very stable power...meaning almost zero downtime otherwise you'll be stalling midway on random hours on random days...causing chaos.

68816419:
Congrats Kaz and Tanzania
Test running of TZ electric SGR

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VvrZj_O0ps
Meanwhile in 254 .

Poor Nigerians. Flutterwave and others will lose their money. Kenya has very strict anti-money laundering laws. Over the last few months - many Nigeria accounts have been blocked - and the money likely to go to gov - by Asset Recovery Authority - you cant explain - you lose the money.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-07-06-court-freezes-56-bank-accounts-with-sh7bn/

“If indeed the Flutterwave was providing merchant services, there was no evidence of retail transactions from customers paying for goods and services. Further, there is no evidence of settlements to the alleged merchants,” he said.

The company’s Equity account number revealed that at some point in May 2021, it received 185 online card payments all sharing the same bank identification number.

The transactions were done using cards issued by the same bank at the same point on the same day raising suspicion of card fraud.

For instance, ARA says the Flutterwave equity USD Bank account was opened in November 2020.

Raila's Azimio you surely can do better than this. Dr Ndii chew Azimio dude. Why not recall Prof Nyongo in Kisumu to help Azimio come with up with an economic plan?
Ruto seem to have the momentum back from Wajackoyah after the Manifesto launch - who got it from Martha.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcCNJ7kGLmE


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sz0hBiQIS5k

All good except it hard to keep PPP accurate; the dollar is very responsive to economic changes and tells a truer picture very fast; unless the forex market is rigged (fixed); so nominal GDP is de-facto and used everywhere for international comparison. PPP are mostly used for internal matters..like poverty analysis.

jl115:
I've told you and rvp2018 this same thing many times ... But I'll do it again..... GDP nominal is the simple measurement of the value of goods and services in US dollars.... However the problem lies in the fact that goods and services are not equally priced in every country hence what $100 buys you in the US is not the same as what $100 buys you in Kenya( aka difference in PPP)

Thus a basket of goods in the US might cost $100 but for the same basket it might only cost $50 in Kenya now for argument sake if a countries gdp was based of only this one basket the GDP nominal would be $100 for the US but only $50 for Kenya however this obviously isn't a fair comparison and isn't a true reflection of the countries wealth

The fact is PPP measures goods and services at the prices that they are locally and thus compares the absolute purchasing power of the countries own currencies.

GDP nominal is in fact a horrible and outdated way of comparing economies

Some many gems from Dr Ndii response

I like he compared IMF austerity measures (that generally harm the country) with what the unorthodox (heredotox) measures they proposing to fix kenya debt crisis.

https://twitter.com/DavidNdii/status/1543880188794179584

Tayser. Dr Ndii explain Ruto gov manifesto - and knocks it out of the park for poor Azimio.
https://twitter.com/DavidNdii/status/1543880188794179584

With expected devaluation of many currencies - this list will change a lot - Egypt or South Africa will come tops. Nigeria might get 40% haircut. Now you - seem to go IMF nominal GPD - when favourable - and PPP when unfavourable.

jl115:
@samorobo... Chech this graph from the Imf

No, debt to gdp, these are conscious decision people take. It start from the budget. You cannot steal outside the budget. Ruto has been out of gov for 5yrs - debt to gdp has become even more terrible.

Kibaki indeed benefitted from the democracy dividends like the re-admission of kenya to Paris club of creditors and debt restructuring thereof - but he took very deliberate actions to reduce debt -and one of them was to finance budget deficit by sale of kenya public assets.Kibaki sold Kengen, Kenren and of course Safaricom - whopping 25% of it - earning enough money to finance deficit. Gov has to watch those macro-economic figures like a hawk watches his prey - Kenya when it cross 60% - should have stopped borrowing - and switching to finance budget through privisation or such schemes.

Jubilee is a victim of it's infrastructure success - because it has come with huge debt burden - and what Ndii has done - is to re-focus the gov from investing in infrastructure - whose ROI is long term - and focus on short & medium term goals.

Ndii is proposing to shift public investment to private sector through PPPs - and also to increase investment from savings - this mean you will soon be paying more for NSSF, Pension funds will have more money , housing levy.

This will reduce the need to borrow - and budget deficit will reduce to 3% in 4-5yrs - and we could have a balanced budget like we did during kibaki regime.

Tayser:
The debt to GDP was high during Moi's era because of two things mainly.

1. The govt was WAY TOO corrupt - all the monies went to people's pockets and nearly zero for development. Those were the monies he went dishing around to churches every Sunday, same thing bwana asifiwe wants to return. Osiris forbid!!
2. Western sanctions.

You didnt need any magic to correct that. With or without Ndii, Kibaki would have made the correct choice. You just need common sense. Even currently its obvious that heavy borrowing has to take a back seat for the next 2-3 years. You don't need Ndii to tell you that. What I dont get is how he convinced Ruto that with 90 B he can get an ROI of 500% (500B)! That nigga is a charlatan.He is the king of sham manifestos.

Yes they are delusional. Ivory Coast is a country that is admirable...save for small civil wars...it way better run almost exclusively on cocoa. Ghana should just copy them.

popizaino:
Ghanaians are not ready to take the bull by the horns just yet and I like i said earlier, they love to walk before crawling. They live in the delusion of been more special and better than every African country so they rather study the economy policies of big countries like Switzerland, Norway, Singapore,Hongkong than to study economy policies of countries closer to them and also forgetting it's a different world with different challenges thus leaving out the core fundamentals of how those countries got there. You need to be here and listen to the local media to see the standards they have set for themselves. It is always about how Sweden,Denmark has done it not about how their very next door neighbours Cote d'ivoire has been able to keep inflation to the bearest minimum,not about how Nigeria has been able to keep her economic aloft despite her challenges,it is about how the UK has done it. In economy you study parallel models not unparallel stuffs like they do.