₦airaland Forum

I wont. I am an old political hand. I supported DP in 1990s as teenager and we use to lose to Moi's KANU.
Finally Kibaki won in 2002. I supported Raila in 2007 and he lost (or was rigged).
Then have supported Jubilee and now KK.
They have been losses and wins.

When you team loses, you take a day or two off, and you comeback, because kenya is not a lost cause yet.

Shma:
Time will tell. And don't vanish on 10th August, When RARUA elections will be celebrated.

Opinions are dime a dozen. Everyone has one.
Jubilee defended their 1st term record in 2017 - and were re-elected for five years - by bigger mandate than in 2013.
That is far as Jubilee 1st term goes for me.

We move to Jubilee 2.0 - 2017 & 2022.
I am looking forward for results of August when Handshake crew will also defend their record - and Kenyans will mark it.
So yes please defend the handshake record - without going back to Jubilee 1.0
Because Kenyans will be judging Jubilee 2.0 on August.
And if you're confident the handshake has delivered - then for sure Raila will be rewarded.
If not he will be punished - and Ruto team given the saddle to drive kenya for next 5yrs.

So the verdict of the handshake or Jubilee 2.0 will be delivered in a month time.

Shma:
RVP. I know you're passionate about Ruto and his endeavors. In all honesty, that dude was a liability to the government. All mega corruption cases were scaled in 1st term. Grand projects stalled in 1st term; talk of the pinnacle, kimwarer, 88 condominium(revived in 2nd term), habitat... I can mention everything but for loyalty purposes, will let them slide. But the point I'm making is that we've seen a tremendous achievement past 2017 - owing to the handshake.


This is what macharia had to say.

He cited the Ksh.72 billion Nairobi Expressway, which was started last year and is due for completion in March 2022, as one prime project since Jubilee returned to State House in 2017..


CS Macharia further noted that during the Jubilee government’s first term between 2013 and 2017, the transport ministry was only able to lay 4,000 kilometers of tarmac road, compared to over double the distance he says they have achieved during the second term.

“These roads that we are doing now, we have done 10,500 kilometers. In the first term, I believe we did less than 4,000 kilometers in first term,”

6'000km currently undergoing. stated Macharia.

Despite the hike in production costs and global 'plandemics', we've managed to crush against the Ideal economic growth rate (2%-3%)- even in the Cov19 era. I'm not saying the credit should go to that old man, but the point I'm putting across is that we can see order and development in his regime.

60% of jubilee brigade are in Azimio - So the same jubilee will still be in power.

Put you numbers down and let's meet on 9th of August otherwise I consider very funny(for lack of a more apt term) when you call my political analysis shallow when I have predicted almost every election and referenda in kenya to the dot.

Let me help with 2017 for example.

1) Presidential race - I predicted 53-54 verus 45-46 with 1% for others. It was a dot. See the difference.
2) MPs: I predicted Jubilee & allied 159 - and result (158) - and NASA & allied 108 versus 108 - if you add women mp - it went 175 for Jubilee and 130mps for NASA.
3) Governors; I called 38 correctly and missed out on 9 (which were tight races) - Granton Samboja was only suprise for me.
4) Senate: same thing;

For 2022
Remember this figures
The presidential election projection.

Ruto - 52-54%
Raila - 44-46%
Wajackoyah -1%
Mwaura - 0.3%

The Parliament, Senate and Governors Projection

Parliament Senate Gov
UDA 182 27 26
ODM 63 11 5
JUBILEE 26 3 4
WIPER 18 3 4
ANC 12 0 2
FORDK 9 1 2
KANU 2 1 0
KK(affl) 7 0 0
AZ(affl)- 17 1 4
336 47 47
UDA Nom 7 12
ODM Nom 3 5
JUBILEE Nom 1 2
WIPER Nom 1 2
SPEAKER(KK) 1 1
349 69 47

Kenya Kwanza will control parliament of 210-220 - just 10mps shy of absolute majority required to change constitution.
Azimio - will struggle to get 130mps.

They are headed for a rout.

Wuoche:
Your political analysis is wanting. How can you claim that jubilee has distanced themselves from Rails when the likes of Peter Keneth, Sabina Chege, Ngunjiri Wambugu and Kanini Kega are among the the front mobilizers for Raila? One thing you have to understand is that Raila usually miss on Kisii and Kuria votes and this time round he has them in his pocket. For Mt. Kenya, he just need a fraction to clinch the seat, Western province is a fat dream for Kenya Kwanza. Again how can you depend on wetangula a person whose MP and governor are all from Raila's party? Even if we look at Mudavadi, he vied for presidency in 2013 and Raila defeated him on his own turf.

Tayser:
Don't forget Uhuru has core supporters in his home turf. Its not all about the rowdy youths on TV.

How does he transfer that to Raila and rally them when he is hiding in statehouse afraid to be heckled.Looking at Martha poorly attended rallies she cannot manage it alone.Unless uhuru engages directly which could cause image problems his jubilee folks are doing everything to distancing themselves from Raila..so Raila support base in Mt Kenya will remain at best 25 percent..if not even worse than that...Uhuru himself has an image problem as he seen by Mt Kenya has having dropped kibaki economic ball and bringing shame to the community by presiding a collapsing economy...so I don't see much hope for Raila in Mt Kenya.Maybe in a rigging schemes he stand a chance..

Jubilee 1st term ended in 2017 and the results was big win for Jubilee - meaning Kenyans liked what they had seen.

Jubilee improved from 51% to 55% - so much Raila boycottted a re-run. Normally incumbency is a curse because you've cannot promise people stuff - you've to defend previous promises - but Jubilee delivered and Ruto is a gifted propagandist who can sell your mother back to you.

What made Jubilee popular in 1st term - mostly the rural access roads- which has more than doubled compared to all years to independence - and electricity coverage that was world fastest. Those won votes Jubilee.

Now as we go to this election. Gov is VERY UNPOPULAR. This is mostly due to COVID, Ukraine and debt mismanagement. But whatever the case - anybody running on platform of the last five years - is going home with Uhuru. People are not in business to understand or excuse gov failures - it doesnt matter if it ukraine - or covid- they are hurting because inflation is gone through the roof. Their intuition therefore is change the gov for something is broken.

This has been Raila albatross - people are hurting from tough economic times - and the last thing they want to hear is status quo. They want change.

Shma:
Are we forgetting that Raila has been out of power since 2012?
Raila came into the picture in 2017(Again, where our economy saw a growth spurt with a whopping 5% - 10% growth rate.)

First 5yrs, the country was filthy, and projects were collapsing/stalling ubiquitously. Nairobi for instance was stinking to the high heaven, in the wake of poor leadership; Ruto being second in command.

I feel like RARUA can take our country far if given a chance.

If 2017 were real(Supreme court never really impugned the numbers - just the processes) - then UhuRuto had almost 1.5M gap - with Raila's NASA.

Therefore Ruto task is simple - to keep the 1.5M gap - every lost Mt kenya vote - he has to gain NASA vote. He can even afford to lose another 0.5M and still beat Raila by a million.

I think he done that. He has MaDVD, Weta, Kingi,Isaac Ruto, Nanok, Muthama - who were NASA generals - and has only lost the now lameduck Uhuru,Gideon & whatever Martha can marshal.

If you sum up the voters Ruto is gaining in NASA strongholds - it probably exceed what Raila is hoping to get in stubborn Mt kenya - and he still has 1.5M gap to surmount.

Martha/Gachagua is desperate attempt by Azimio to manufacture momentum. From her poorly attended rallies - I dont think Ruto has to worry about Mt-Kenya - Ruto has sustained Mt kenya for 5yrs - despite heavy barrage from state sanctioned onslaught - picking DPORK will not be deal breaker for those who have supported him.

Ruto numbers have remain solid for 5yrs now - almost at 50 percent of the decided voters for 5yrs - nothing will change Ruto core supporters in the next 50 days.

In terms of numbers - unless Mt Kenya is split 50-50 - Raila has no path to victory. We know he will struggle to even get 30 percent.

Tayser:
This has actually had the opposite effect because it has become easier to sell Raila with UK off the picture. People were against the old man because he seemed like a project. Dont also forget Rigathi is the main reason Ruto's campaign lost the oomph. He's literally a liability. Then his past was dug and horrific stories emerged. Regarding votes, do you think Ruto will gain as much votes from Mt K as Uhuruto in 2013/2017? If not then you can see why I see no chance for him. He needs to get virtually the entire vote and hope Rao gets nearly zero as has previously been the case. My bet is as good as yours.

I disagree. Kenya need men of steel like Gachagua. Kenya for a 20 yrs has been on carefree handling led by weak leaders - that has resulted in drug/betting epidemics - that would require a bit of Museveni/Kagame iron-clad leadership - and Rigathi bring that. If he was not DPORK - he would certainly be the Interior Minister.

If you go to most place in kenya - you find entire generation lost to miraa/drugs/betting - and this will require someone like Gachagua to straighten things up - by ensuring gov functions and runs. Otherwise laziness will continue - nothing will get done. Something need to be done to fix the broken society.

Asides of course of political consideration - Ruto was looking for someone strong enough to wade off Uhuru - and Gachagua has scared off Uhuru from campaign trail - so he already achieved his objective.

Does he scare people and remind them of KANU terror - of course - but both Ruto and Gachagua - share that same Moi philosophy of hands-on leadership

Tayser:
Rigathi is a stone age zinjanthropus whose brain is stuck to nyayo-era KANU like a broken clock. Ruto just needed to pick Kindiki and Raila would never have had a chance. But the sinister man armtwisted Ruto, who turned out to be surprisingly naive and controllable. Regarding corruption, both teams are equally tainted but atleast one is talking of fighting it while the other is mute.

Raila was great when we were dealing with governance issues. This ended on 2010 when we passed a new constitution. Now we are 10yrs into the 2nd republic and we need to refocus our energies into economic realm - bread & butter issues - and simply implement the 2010 constitution - a brilliant modern constitution.

Raila simply doesn't grasp the contemporary challenges and issues facing kenya.

Shma:
Bruv, I disagree with the emboldened. I'm not 'pro- him' per se, but the Azimio team as a whole. That being said, we shouldn't also take away the +ves of an old man. That man has Kenya's best interest at heart. He worked with Kibaki - when our economy took a new shape - with an upward trajectory. ( that's the only scenario where we can pluck the assertion of his capability on boosting Kenya's economy since he was in power)

Ruto manifesto will be out on 30th June. According to Ndii - Ruto has assembled the largest policy wonks ever - about 200 top brains are involved. Ruto has kept it under wraps because Raila is clearly running on empty and has been waiting to copy-paste. For the first time we have a semblance of issue based campaign although ethnicity remain the key.

Some of highlight of Ruto manifesto that I have been able to decipher.
1) Big push on Agri sector - there are at least 8 million farmers in Kenya - mostly dealing with basics - financing farming through cooperatives like happens in 60s and 70s - before Moi killed AFC/KGGC in 1980s and 1990s.

2) Big push on housing - end of slums/slum scrappers/kayoles - more formal housing - built on unprecedented scale that will be sold cheaply like used to happen before 1990s. There is no need of kayoles or pipelines or kiberas - informal housing sector.This will employ at least a million people. It will also free people investing in rental/housing to invest in proper business. The gov exit of formal housing in early 1990s due to Jirongo/mugoya company messes - gave us the rise of slumlords and kayoles all over - unplanned expensive dangerous and unsafe housing.

3) Big push in healthcare -everyone will get free primary healthcare. Continued investment in TIVET. End of CBC (unfortunately) and return to 8-4-4- implementation was bungled - cant be saved.

4) Big push on Water - for everyone.

5) Big push on SMES. Fixing market inefficiencies including removing large monopolies/regulatory/state captures. Leveling the playing ground for SMEs to thrive.

Nothing fancy.Nothing over-ambitious. Don't expect large infrastructure projects. The economy requires at least two years to recover from Covid/Ukraine blowout.

kikuyu1:
We're in agreement as in most cases....but. Frankly,I'm really not impressed with Ruto's recent moves. Firstly there was the abandonment,some say betrayal of Kindiki. Then there's other pronouncements like returning the ICD depots to Mombasa,free diapers for 3 months, 50% women in cabinet that have me rethinking things. I'm yet to hear viable ideas like operationalising the bottom up economic approach via reviving ethnic welfare associations to pool resources for members in group initiatives. Like your Sarun Amabet Welfare association or Myot group but more financially and economically inclined like Luo union or GEMA with group investments in real estate,hospitality,manufacturing etc,etc.
Mzee,as things stand now I may actually sit this one out.

He was always that - plus now old age has caught up with him. He will be a disaster except he has no way to win against an engine like Ruto who is meticulous

Saddamochieng00:
Raila's economic plan is an utter joke and begs the question if he even has an economic team. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if this is the case. The reports I've received from some of his people in 2007(ODM) and 2017(NASA) speaks of disorderliness, lack of vision, massive corruption(direct tickets), poor decision making, disloyalty, ingratitude....the list is long. All I'm trying to say is Baba is of questionable character and can't be trusted with that seat.

This is coming from a former supporter who practiced selective blindness over all these issues but with time couldn't overlook them anymore.

Nope. I am democrat. I will accept the result and move on.

Tayser:
Hopefully you won't mind deactivating for a week in my honour

Kazikazi:
you dont know TZ. By law,u cant refuse to move out of the land if the gov wants to use the land for public projects or any development projects.Those masais who tried to go against gov are from kenya.Even on SGR,many folks have been moved from their land to make a space for the longest electrified speedy SGR in Africa.

Even all other protected areas like the one I showed u above,people were moved from those areas.

One reason you can't develop..such weak property rights make people afraid to invest

Kazikazi:
About 35% of TZ land is a protected areas set aside for conservation.
Thanks to millions of fellows who gave away their ancestral lands for the sake of conservations.

Why do you need more land in this century.

Tayser:
I think the Roots fella is doing a social experiment? Hard to understand what he's doing. Typically I don't get too deep into these things but I can give an estimate of 51-57 for Azimio and 42-49 for KK, barring a massive change in the political landscape. 55 days is a very long time in politics anything can happen. We live in the same environments but perceive reality differently.

Well noted..45 for Ruto versus 55 for Raila with 3 percent error rate..Let's see on night of the 9th.It should be easy to call once results stream in.

Did you finish evicting Maasai from their ancestral so you can sell the land for hunting by a few Arabs - your dependable colonizers since 10th century.

Kazikazi:
loomalasin,Tanzania

There is no runoff scenario unless Wajackoyah gains momentum. This already a run-off as the line up is very clear binary choice.

Kenya politics is tribal - Martha can only cause an impact in Mt Kenya - and if she fails to get traction there - then Azimio will have wasted DPORK...because Ukambani might not vote enthusiastically like it would.

Is she getting traction in Mt kenya - it appears her momentum didnt last a week - and it's fizzled out.
Her rallies this week in Muranga, Kirinyanga and Nyeri were pure disaster as folks kept off.


Anyway we have one and half month to go.

Put you numbers. After 9th August. We will meet here.

Tayser:

Alright bro, we'll see. In my view it all hinges on Martha's effect. If the undecided voters go her way the Azimio camp will easily garner 60 %. If not then there will be a runoff. I just cant see how Ruto will win, honestly. Lets wait and see.

He has no upper hand. Kenya elections are easy to call. I have personally predicted every kenya election or referenda bar 2007 almost to a dot.

This British Prof who has Phd in kenya politics similarly does this regularly.
http://www.charleshornsby.com/kenya-blog

He is predicting 51 percent for Ruto and 49 percent for Raila - I am predicting 53 percent with 46 percent for Raila. Opinion polls in kenya have very serious reliability problems because their sampling framework is faulty. Until you factor ethnicity as the key variable in understanding kenya politics - you're bound to get wrong - and all you need is deeper understanding of the ethnic tapestry that is kenya - as 1st step.

Dr Charles Horsnby understand kenya politics like no one - and some of his books - are very illuminating.

You should read his 2022 take - and if you're interested his previous analysis and books are available
https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds/2022/03/28/predicting-winners-and-losers-in-the-august-2022-poll-the-numbers-game/

http://www.charleshornsby.com/kenya-blog

Shma:
I still think Raila has Kenya's best interest at heart. That old man has pioneered most projects which are currently ongoing; including the expressway.

Currently, he has an upper hand... Maybe 57% against Ruto.

I had to read that twice.

My father also met Ruto under almost exact same circumstance around the same time.
Previously my father had no time for KANU and it's orphan. Despite us being same tribe with Moi - my father was key DP (Kibaki) supporter.
I grew up also supporting DP - my dad considered kibaki a brilliant leader - so through 90s we supported and voted for him - he use to get 3-5 votes in entire constituency from our family - Moi got everything else.

Long story short - in 2007 I was disappointed with Kibaki tribalism and abandoning the narc dream - esp devolution.federalism - in Bomas - so I joined ODM - my father stuck with Kibaki - distrusting Raila - he was now reduced to 1 vote for Kibaki - in our family.

Of course we have violence and all that - Ruto get appointed to Min of Kilimo. My father and others had been struggling to be allowed to sell their tea to multinationals- who are besides our farms. KTDA had blocked all such attempts despite tea being liberazed (sp) in 1995. Sometimes they would allow it - then block it.

Long story short - Ruto gave my father and his group - a six am appointment - and in 10 minutes solved a problem that had been lingering for almost 20yrs. The battles we had with KTDA were many. Ruto took a phone call - told the MD of KTDA to read the tea act - and smallholder tea farms in my area were allowed to freely sell their tea. In five years our village totally transformed as now people were able to get 40shs per kilo - paid instantly - and didnt have to wait for a year - and there were no quality or tea overstaying - or name it. Biggest problem if you have large tea farms - those quality standards are too exating.

Anyway from then my father was sold. Ruto is one serious guy who report to office at even 5 am in the morning - and is very punctual - and put in real hardwork for long hours.

Kenya in 10yrs with his leadership will change like Ethiopia did under Meles.

Uhuru and Mois are desperate to stop him using Raila - but as long as they have failed to convince your people the kikuyus to board Raila train - Ruto is sleepwalking to statehouse.

kikuyu1:
My dad interacted with him as their factory imported tea fertiliser around '09 . He said he's hard-working WITH an eye for detail. Fyi, he brought back extension officers when he was in Agri. I know he's one guy who won't take RAOs usual post election loss destabilisation efforts quietly.

In what sense. Most problems can be solved by common sense.

popizaino:
Rvp can sometimes be comical.

No problem. Let's meet on august 10th. These will be more or less the numbers.

The presidential election projection.

Ruto - 53-54%
Raila - 45-46%
Wajackoyah -1%
Mwaura - 0.3%

The Parliament, Senate and Governors Projection

Parliament Senate Gov
UDA 182 27 26
ODM 63 11 5
JUBILEE 26 3 4
WIPER 18 3 4
ANC 12 0 2
FORDK 9 1 2
KANU 2 1 0
KK(affl) 7 0 0
AZ(affl)- 17 1 4
336 47 47
UDA Nom 7 12
ODM Nom 3 5
JUBILEE Nom 1 2
WIPER Nom 1 2
SPEAKER(KK) 1 1
349 69 47

Remember those numbers - and on 10th August - Let's review.

How Azimio hope to win and run gov when Ruto's Kenya Kwanza will have nearly the absolute majority of Mps and senators is BEYOND me

Tayser:
I don't think so. He effed up so badly the last couple weeks while Raila made a serious monkey jump that has made it impossible for Ruto to gain new ground. This will actually be the most clear cut election since 2002/03.

What useless point?
Ghana when it had electricity problems - did not invest money - it simply changed the regulations - and invited IPPS.
IPPS came - put down the investment - and generated power.
Kenya did the same.
Nigeria can do the same.
Only mistake Ghana did was to go overboard - in signing IPPS - which have take or pay clauses.

And situation now - half the capacity is going to waste - Ghana is paying IPPS not to run the turbines.

Ghana currently has over 5,300 MW of installed generation capacity, though actual availability rarely exceeds 2,400 MW due to changing hydrological conditions, inadequate fuel supplies and dilapidated infrastructure.
https://www.usaid.gov/powerafrica/ghana

Just40:
Posting a whole lot of non issue like the lunatic you are.

You made a useless point and you were corrected, now you are all around the place. Where were you educated again?

I know you're mad man but for sake of others - let me engage you.

The last large public investment Ghana did was 1960s buiding of volta dam.

Otherwise most of the investment came from IPPS - as of 2016 - private sector were doing 2000MW compared to 2500MW that gov of Ghana has invested (with 1,000MW being the Volta dam built by Nkurumah ages ago).



The participation of independent power producers (IPPs) in Ghana has continued to grow since the thermal Takoradi Power Station was first built in Aboadze in 2004. Indeed, IPPs are quickly catching up to public generation in terms of capacity. As of October 2017, the power capacity that is provided by IPPs and non-state-run power plants in Ghana stands at 1925 MW, compared to 2456 MW of installed capacity at the state-backed primary electricity generation utility Volta River Authority (VRA). In total, there are nine IPPs providing electricity, including the 400-MW Bui Dam, seven thermal plants with installed capacity of 1505 MW, and the 20-MW solar plant completed by BXC Ghana, a subsidiary of China-based industrial conglomerate Beijing Fuxing Xiao-Cheng Electronic. The interest in IPPs is likely to continue into 2018 and beyond as additional projects come on-line and policies encourage the engagement of private energy players.


According to a 2016 World Bank report, there are 126 IPPs present in 18 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, providing more than 13% of total installed generation capacity. Ghana has the fourth-highest capacity generated by IPPs and ranks third in terms of investment, after South Africa, Kenya and Nigeria, with both metrics growing

https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/analysis/private-players-independent-producers-set-have-increasingly-important-role#:~:text=In%20total%2C%20there%20are%20nine,Beijing%20Fuxing%20Xiao%2DCheng%20Electronic.

Just40:
There's nothing like zero cost when it comes to resolving electricity issue.
It cost Ghana 13 to 16 billion dollars to resolved it recent electricity issues.

As I speak, some of the works are still going on. Like the restraining of over 10,000km of high voltage GRIDCO transmission lines in order to completely move the transmission lines from the 1950s technology.

As well as making the country less vulnerable by creating 3 more energy hubs instead of relying on the current ones in Tema and Takoradi.
Power plants are being moved to Central Ghana specifically Kumasi to stabilize the entire central Ghana.
And others will be moved to Northern Ghana.

All of this is money intensive and Nigeria will need at least 40 billion dollars.

Transmission should be split.
It's like road network.
There are federal roads.
There are state roads.
Abuja should build federal transmission lines.
Those are heavy ones that can transport lots of power from big power stations - say 1,000MW - to each state transmission center.
From there - the state transmission take over.
They can feed into federal line or their own lines.
Gov jobs ends there - to be umpire - now each supply company and each distribution company - sell power to each other
And gov ensure payments are done in timely manner - and any maintainance coordinated.
These state govs can do.
Abuja then focus on building high transmission lines and really big power stations that become the backbone of the network.
States then focus on reticulation - and ensuring law and order - no illegal connections, timely payment to generating companies, etc.
That is hard part that Nigeria has not started working on.
Adding more hardware - will not solve such problems - of illegal connections, tampering, late or no payment to generating companies, no payment to oil or gas companies, no payment to banks who lend such sectors, delayed salaries to power staff.

theenchanter:
exactly, this was the talk sometime ago, but I don't think they're ready for full unbundling.

Some states are actually building theirs.

But another thing I want u to know is that fed govt is only involved in transmission section of the power sector, not generation and distribution.

Why not unbundle for every state to manage their small network?
Why do you need that complicated network?
This afternoon law change in Abuja - allow every state to do their own electricity reticulation.
Federal gov should step out.
Each state can attract investment - and deal with power issues.

In Kenya - constitution- Counties (way small than states) - have the power to manage their own electricity.

theenchanter:
it's more of hardware than software. The transmission lines need to be expanded to carry over 25gw of power.

Right now, the transmission lines can only carry 5gw, anything over than that, it'll collapse.

You're wasting money.
Obasanjo spend 16B dollars; Total wasted money; Nigeria remain in darkness.
Kenya and Ghana spend almost zero; most investment coming in as IPPS.
Kenya and Ghana have stable electricity.
The reason is once you fix regulatory and systemic issues - electricity will attract private investment - because this like Telcom.
There is ready market for electricity in Nigeria. Private sector will invest and get money. Nigeria gov should invest IN EDUCATION.
It's just too chaotic for anyone to come in - with illegal meters and broken transmission.

theenchanter:
nah, Lagos can't. Lest many sector will suffer for it.

But the good thing is that u don't to pay once for these kind of projects, it's a govt-to-govt project, no middlemen involved.

I think Nigeria has already made part payment sha.

Nigeria has installed capacity of 12,000MW - and it can barely get 4,000MW. So hardware is not the problem. The problem is software.

From your article...I see 10M meter gap and then we have illegal connection problem. These are easy to fix problems that cost very little. A pre-paid meter cost about 25 dollars....which customers can happily bear ..if not..it will cost 250M dollars. The rest is to get army and police to go house to house like a census....making sure...no illegal connection has been done....and everyone has pre-paid meters.

Those pre-paid meters connected to mobile money/fintech to generate tokens...will see money flowing to distribution companies...and once they are not bankrupt...they will pay for electricity.

As of now - large majority of that 8,000MW that is idle - is because the turbines wont run as distro companies wont pay - generating companies dont have money to buy gas or diesel or whatever they use to run turbines.

End result - waste of money - which is quite common in Nigeria.

Subsaharan:
Over 6m meters are being currently installed all around the country, it's a holistic plan.


https://punchng.com/world-bank-cbn-fully-funding-six-million-meters-fg/

Generation is being upgraded.

Transmission and distribution, these things take time

You've met Nigerians, very impatient.

They were subsidies on power too, they have been successfully eradicated, so as far as the ongoing installation of prepaid meters is a success, Discos would start running a profitable business for the first time.

Okay. I dont think problem is technical - I think problem is commercial- it starts with metering - and until that is sorted - this yet another wasteful expenditure like Obasanjo one.

The solution has to start in installing pre-paid meters - and sending army or someone to remove all illegal connections - and making it illegal to connect illegally.

Once you do that - supply companies - will have money to pay distribution companies - who will then run the turbines. With money flowing - they will then have money to invest in technical stuff.

But if you think the problem is transformers/turbines/transmission wires - you're going NOWHERE. Broke supply and transmission companies will not run the turbines or have staff to fix transmission issue.

The total cost for Nigeria to fix electricity issues - is zero - just send the army with power companies armed with millions of pre-paid meters - and within a week - Nigeria power companies will be swimming in money.

Subsaharan:
The power issues are currently being sorted

Nigeria got a deal from Germany to upgrade its transmission lines(largely the cause of power outages and grid collapses)

Similar to the one Egypt got. A $2.3bn deal(Technology transfer + 50% local content)

https://new.siemens.com/ng/en/products/energy/topics/presidential-power-initiative-nigeria.html

Although Mr. Tinubu would take all the credit, the first set of transformers would be arriving in the country in Q4.


https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2022/04/27/siemens-deal-electricity-supply-equipment-to-begin-arriving-from-germany-in-september/

The he is the best. Electricity issues will for example be sorted by dealing with supply/distribution and generation companies issues. Those are business that are inefficient - and you need a business mind to figured it out.

The same way Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala fixed Nigeria banking - and now it's only sector in Nigeria thriving - is what is required in other sectors.

Subsaharan:
Tinubu is a textbook capitalist.

Nigerian political parties are not ideological, it's just different gangs of the elite class hustling for power for the sake of it.

To run the country the way they feel would be best.

Those are minor issues - how it sold - and for how much - is irrelevant. This something that is choking Nigeria economy.

You should not care who get it. Most of the time whoever get it will become saddled with debts - and huge staff - and will spend years cleaning it up - court cases and name it.

What you should focus is the objective of that privatization. If for example inefficient gov refineries will allow more Dangote to invest in the sector - then Dangotes or private investors - will create more efficient refinieres.

SOEs are closes to having communism that is proven failed model.

Subsaharan:
I have no problem with this.

A lot of those assets are a liability to the state.

Like the refineries for instance(spending $ms to pay union workers for doing nothing)

But it should be done in a proper manner where all investors are given a level playing field and the best emerges.

If precedence is anything to go by, it will not be favourable to Atiku.

The purpose of privatization is not for gov to make money. I can understand Russia type of messed up privatization but overriding reason of privatizing state own companies is to free the economy - to broaden capitalism - and that is magic that will create more companies/wealth.

Nigeria Gov should sell most of it's SOEs for one Naira....and move on. SOEs not only stymie the economy - they also become an albatross as it saddle gov with debts, guarantees and occasional bailout.

Sell nearly all SOES - and focus on being a regulator - capitalism or free market - will work the magic. If you privatize but still do not allow free market to thrive - then that is huge Russia like mess. Otherwise if Atiku bought gov SOES for cheap - but everyone is allowed to compete - soon his companies will go down - because the market economy is VERY BRUTAL.

Subsaharan:
Yeah privatization, but to his cronies and himself for 20% the value of state property.

GeneralDae:
You don't get it. I mean the deals were non beneficial in the end. Sold to incompetent, or corrupt people or sold less than the ideal prices with no benefit to the masses in the end.
Removing Atiku from the equation, generally in my view, Government should have at least 30% ownership in the major businesses. Hence I'm not excited by the idea of privatisation.

You cannot privatize while choking the private sector through Abuja misguided policies.Otherwise gov has no business own even a share of any business and should be a regulator.Privitisation should be done 50 percent through IPO and 50 percent to strategic investor who understands that business... Nigeria privatisation failed mostly because it's didn't sell to strategic investors.Kenya mostly succeeded because we sold at least 40 percent first to big global companies in that space then rest to the public through IPO.

68816419:
So who are you supporting to win the upcoming election?

You have 55 days to decide who to vote for..or skip the presidential ballot or whole election..not voting is part of democratic process