₦airaland Forum

Sounds like bla de bla to me. I have seen enough of West Africa to know you dont get it. It's about tending to grass, hedges and trees.

Naijasauce69:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-10/nigeria-plans-to-increase-forest-cover-to-25-of-landmass.

Nigeria is a continental leading force in landscaping, seeding, gardening, and reforestation. We’re greening neighborhoods and growing forest where they have or will exist. Our lush neighborhoods are well populated because people can actually afford to live there and not left mostly empty like in Kenya or Rwanda. Even in the future will be a major player in participating in terraforming the Sahara.

Contemporary Nigeria and West Africa at large is naturally a Tropical Eden. No filters needed. Even in our Sahelian and far northern region depending on the season sees numerous oasis and forest springing up. I can’t say the same for Kenya a natural desert savanna.

Nairobi at night has more light than Lagos in daytime

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIhBkqa3Ekc

Nairobi Muthaiga drive through; West Africa can learn about growing trees, hedges and grass from this;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1qf-qA-Ks3g

Nairobi, Luanda, Addis Ababa should be in top...that kind of listing is not serious.

68816419:
Fastest growing cities in Africa (2022)

Terrible idea with fuel levy now costing 75B. That is already nearly a billion dollar. Subsidies are terrible....except maybe well targetted small ones like farmers subsidies.

vizboy:
KPLC Receives 7 Billion Kenyan Shilling Subsidy To Reduce Bills By 15 Percent

The Kenyan Treasury has offered a 7.05 billion Kenyan Shilling subsidy to Kenya Power and Lighting Company, which is more commonly known as Kenya Power or KPLC in order to make it possible for the electricity distribution company to reduce the consumer electricity bills by an additional fifteen (15) percent without the move affecting its cash flows.



https://nexbitke.com/kplc-receives-7-billion-kenyan-shilling-subsidy-to-reduce-bills-by-15-percent/

Unfortunately the country cannot be run like private enterprise with moonshot ideas. Gov just need to do the basics very very well. In fact according to Ruto there is really no need for new ideas. The old ideas will customized from views of Kenyans.

Kenyans want common sensical issues fixed for them...roads, access to credit, piped water, dairies, more feed for their cows, very very basic stuff.

So Ruto will have 47 Manifestos. 1 diaspora minifesto - with a minister. And national manifesto.

The 47 county manifesto will focus on BASIC for each county - some will be want tourism - some cattle keeping - some coffee farming. They will be SMART - costed, realistic and achievable.

Where Ruto excel is in execution of common sensical reform that will not cost a lot of money. Some of them dont even cost anything.

kikuyu1:
What I need to hear is outside the box thinking and specifics on these issues,mzee. Eg,after all this time we're mainly still relying on rainwater for farming. In the early 70s a feasibility study found it workable to pump water from L Vic to Timboroa 120 km away at 10000 ft,the highest point west of the highlands providing drinking water and irrigation for all towns and urban centres in the region and the lake basin as it would flow back via simple gravity. The individual towns would be responsible for end consumer distro.
Knowing our climate and the economic challenges ASAL dwellers face what plans are there to reintroduce hunting? Those in the industry are benefiting majorly!


http://www.rojeleather.com/species-and-leathers/zebra-hides-and-rugs/

And dikdik,gazelles,eland,lions,leopards and on and on and on.


[url]https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989418302336#:~:text=Using%20multiplier%20analysis%20based%20on,than%2017%20000%20employment%20opportunities.[/url]

Iow,the neediest at the local level,the skinners,trackers and drivers benefit. That's why every state in the US allows hunting as well as every country in Europe-from Belgium,to the UK and the Scandis they allow wild boar,red stag and moose hunting. But here we burn wildlife trophies worth millions to the empty applause of neurotic Westerners and their local disciples.
Good to see the social housing will continue-its the surest way to poverty reduction but I can't object more to scrapping of the CBC. Living in Africa and among Africans I long ago realised 2 things:
-Nothing is perfect
-Change is ALWAYS resisted
It would be a disaster to succumb to emotional complaints and go back to the 8-4-4 system also for sociocultural reasons. We need to make niggas move out of their comfort zone! We need to learn to make progress,difficult as it may be and not stagnate.
On security we need a fair firearms bureau or a tribunal! I'm the last to advocate arming Somalis,single mothers,Kisiis and Merus with micro uzis but frankly seeing unarmed victims of cattle rustlers constantly crying for police reservists and protection is too much. Fyi,some people in Laikipia have long abandoned cattle keeping! We need a transparent licencing not just for Elites but for all. Rmbr,the Westgate would've been a complete massacre but for the few armed civvies.
If you get me smth solid on these issues before the 30th,the better. If you agree with anything steal my ideas and talk to his team.

Jubilee party popularity has now reduced to 2-3 percent. That is some indictment. And current economic woes doesnt help his case at all...with Kshs weakening to 120...fuel crisis like never before.. food prize through the roof. Uhuru is going home very unpopular.

April he was 4-5 percent - now I have seen he is 2-3 percent - just about where weed advocate Wajackoyah is.

tylann:
Uhuru kenyatta has outperformed kibaki by far in terms of economy if he could have stand again I would give him my vote

Without Uganda oil - it may be hopeless - as recoverable oil is very little to attract investment. But we already trucked some of it and sold it.

Kazikazi:
where is your turkana oil?

do u think talking with empty staving mouth will help you? why are u lacking skills to end hunger? i have no time arguing with a starving man,sorry go first learn how to feed yourselves as a country

Human capital is blocking that Natural Capital. Kenya professionals are some of Africa best and can help you fasten the process. I am sure you have translate everything to Kiswahili and taken months to understands.

This why Kenya despite all that semi-aridness is waay ahead of Tanzania

Kazikazi:
but son,how can we hire a starving man for a job which costs billions of dollars? just imagine,a guy cant feed himself,cant end tribalism,then how can the same man be able to do engineering stuff? madness

remember the cost of a project is now 40b by the latest estimates

With your usual slow pace; you may never see it in your lifetime. Uganda oil discovered in 2006 - by 2025 - 20yrs later it would still be stuck underground. Tanzania the same story. You need to hire Kenyans.

Kazikazi:
tanzania


Tanzania Inks Deal With Shell, Equinor for $30-Billion LNG Terminal
Tanzania has signed an LNG framework agreement to reboot a plan to build an LNG export terminal on the Indian Ocean.
June 14, 2022
The government of Tanzania has signed a liquefied natural gas (LNG) framework agreement with the UK’s Shell and Norway’s Equinor that is expected to kick-start construction of a $30- to $40-billion LNG export terminal to commercialize the country’s deepwater offshore gas reserves.

The deal signed by the three parties on 11 June is foundational to the Tanzanian government’s issuance of a Host Government Agreement (HGA) later this year which will outline the project’s technical, commercial, and legal terms, according to Bloomberg.

Front-end engineering and design (FEED and pre-FEED) will be completed within 3 years of HGA signing, with a final investment decision targeted in 2025. A 4- to 5-year construction period will follow with a first LNG drop planned by 2029–2030.

The plant will be built at the East African nation’s southern coastal town of Lindi. It will be linked via a 100-km subsea pipeline to significant deepwater gas discoveries off Tanzania’s southern coast and have a 30-year life span, according to Equinor.

If all goes as planned, 2025 will be significant also as the year Tanzania becomes a transit state for crude oil passing from Uganda’s Lake Albert development through the East African Crude Oil Pipeline to be exported through the Tanzanian port town of Tanga.

Tanzania LNG render_1.png
Tanzania LNG render_2.png
An artist’s rendering of Tanzania’s future LNG export and gas processing facility at the town of Linde and the deepwater upstream operation offshore that will provide the gas resource. Source: Equinor

Regulatory delays had stalled construction of the LNG project during Tanzania’s late President John Magufuli’s tenure in office, but his successor and current president, Samia Suluhu Hassan, reignited discussions shortly after taking office a year ago, Aljazeera reported. First talks regarding the plant were initiated in 2014. But now there is a new sense of urgency.

Tanzania is among the gas-rich African nations that now see LNG exports as a way to transform their economies in light of today’s geopolitical realignment of energy trade and the opening of new market opportunities. Energy Minister January Makamba singled out Asia as Tanzania’s No. 1 target market given his country’s geographic position on the Indian Ocean, during the LNG signing ceremony.

Developing New Gas Resources
With regard to the development of Tanzania’s gas resource base, Shell currently operates Block 1 and Block 4 offshore where it has discovered 16 Tcf (453 Bcm) of recoverable natural gas. Shell holds a 60% interest in a production-sharing agreement (PSA) with the Tanzanian government that expires in 2024. Other partners include Pavilion Energy (20%) and Jakarta-based Medco Energy (20%).

Pavilion is a subsidiary of Temasek, a global investment company based in Singapore that is focused on LNG shipping and trade in Asia and Europe. Medco has exploration and production operations in Indonesia, Mexico, Libya, and Tanzania as well as interests in power, gas trading and mining, according to the companies’ websites.

Equinor operates Block 2, where it has drilled more than 15 exploration wells since 2011 resulting in nine discoveries at water depths of 2500 m with an estimated 20 Tcf of gas, according to Equinor’s website. The Norwegian major plans to develop the field using subsea wells located on the seabed to avoid having to build expensive facilities at sea level.

Equinor entered the Tanzania market in 2007 after having signed a PSA for Block 2 with Tanzania Petroleum Development Corp. (TPDC). Equinor has a 65% operating interest in Block 2, while ExxonMobil holds a 35% working interest. TPDC has the right under the PSA to participate with a 10% interest.

Overall, Tanzania estimates its recoverable offshore reserves at more than 57 Tcf (1,630 Bcm) which are reported to be the sixth-largest in Africa.

Hassan as well as leaders of other gas-rich African countries have been floating the idea that the continent has the resources to join other global LNG producers in supplying Europe as the EU seeks to end its energy dependence on Russia.

But, as several leaders among those representing the 11 nations present at the Gas Exporting Countries Forum held in Qatar on 22 February (2 days before Russian troops crossed into Ukraine) pointed out, significant investment would be needed to develop new gas infrastructure capable of replacing current Russian imports. Also, Europe would need to sign long-term contracts, Aljazeera noted in its coverage of the forum.

Europe for the most part has moved away from long-term agreements over the past decade, preferring the flexibility of spot market purchases of fossil fuel, especially considering the push to replace carbon-intensive oil and gas with green, low- or no-carbon renewables.

There is also political risk. While Tanzania may be stable, it had planned to join with neighboring Mozambique in a wider vision to create a greater East African LNG hub. But it is uncertain when Mozambique’s stalled LNG development might get back on track after an insurgency caused France’s TotalEnergies to declare force majeure on its multibillion dollar operation in April, 2021.

Equinor Tanzania blocks.png

Kenya politics is tribal. Nakuru is 50 percent Kikuyu; 30 percent Kalenjin; 20 percent others (Gusii, Luhya, Maasai and Luo). Nakuru is obvious - UDA/Ruto will carry the day. Kikuyus in Nakuru and Eldoret - and in most of Rift Valley - are voting peace - they want to continue peaceful co-existence with Kalenjin after 92-07 PEV - that is why not a single MP apart from Arama(Gusii) is in Jubilee - all of them joined UDA. Only Lee is stuck and is going home. The same scenarios play in Narok, Kajiado and Tranzoia - where Kalenjin/Kikuyu constitute a significant minority - that basically decide the seats.


Discuss something else. Politics you're toddlers.

Tayser:
That's the problem of living in a bubble/echo chamber. Whatever he is saying has very little to do with reality. In reality Azimio has nearly 3/4 of Kenyan counties under wraps. KK is banking on the north Rift and Central, and in both areas Azimio will eat a significant chunk. Nakuru for instance, my home county is overwhelmingly pro Azimio yet it's in the rift and has a huge number of voters. The rest of the country is solidly behind the old man.

Common sense is free available.
What ails Nigeria power sector.
Broke Distro and Gen companies.
Why are they broke.
Nigeria dont pay for power - quick search - "Nigeria’s metered customers rise 17.7% to 4.7m"
Kenya has 8.1M metered customers. South Africa has 17M.
Nigeria if we assume at 50 percent electricity supply and urbanization - should have about 40-50 Million households.
If half are supplied - it should have 20M metered customers - half the household.
Lagos alone if it has 20m - with average urban household size of 3 - should have 7M metered connections.

You cannot fix problem by bringing in new hardware.
Fix Gen and Distro companies by aggressive metering.
Inject capital to those companies.
And let them go buy whatever they need.

But if Buhari calls SIemens and say he has 10B dollars - they will supply him all sort of things.
After three months - they will be broken down or vandalized or sabotaged - by same Gen/Distro companies.
And they will be too broke to do anything.

COMMON SENSE: CASHFLOW IN YOUR UTILITY COMPANIES is the problem.

Injecting CASH wont help. FIX CASH FLOW...so money rotate in the entire energy sector...and problems will disappear.

It's like treating aenemia through blood transfusion without fixing the cause of anemia.

popizaino:
Not even most but all problems can be solved used common sense and in the case of our epileptic power supply we will have to pay those expertise who bring the sense on board.

I wont. I am an old political hand. I supported DP in 1990s as teenager and we use to lose to Moi's KANU.
Finally Kibaki won in 2002. I supported Raila in 2007 and he lost (or was rigged).
Then have supported Jubilee and now KK.
They have been losses and wins.

When you team loses, you take a day or two off, and you comeback, because kenya is not a lost cause yet.

Shma:
Time will tell. And don't vanish on 10th August, When RARUA elections will be celebrated.

Opinions are dime a dozen. Everyone has one.
Jubilee defended their 1st term record in 2017 - and were re-elected for five years - by bigger mandate than in 2013.
That is far as Jubilee 1st term goes for me.

We move to Jubilee 2.0 - 2017 & 2022.
I am looking forward for results of August when Handshake crew will also defend their record - and Kenyans will mark it.
So yes please defend the handshake record - without going back to Jubilee 1.0
Because Kenyans will be judging Jubilee 2.0 on August.
And if you're confident the handshake has delivered - then for sure Raila will be rewarded.
If not he will be punished - and Ruto team given the saddle to drive kenya for next 5yrs.

So the verdict of the handshake or Jubilee 2.0 will be delivered in a month time.

Shma:
RVP. I know you're passionate about Ruto and his endeavors. In all honesty, that dude was a liability to the government. All mega corruption cases were scaled in 1st term. Grand projects stalled in 1st term; talk of the pinnacle, kimwarer, 88 condominium(revived in 2nd term), habitat... I can mention everything but for loyalty purposes, will let them slide. But the point I'm making is that we've seen a tremendous achievement past 2017 - owing to the handshake.


This is what macharia had to say.

He cited the Ksh.72 billion Nairobi Expressway, which was started last year and is due for completion in March 2022, as one prime project since Jubilee returned to State House in 2017..


CS Macharia further noted that during the Jubilee government’s first term between 2013 and 2017, the transport ministry was only able to lay 4,000 kilometers of tarmac road, compared to over double the distance he says they have achieved during the second term.

“These roads that we are doing now, we have done 10,500 kilometers. In the first term, I believe we did less than 4,000 kilometers in first term,”

6'000km currently undergoing. stated Macharia.

Despite the hike in production costs and global 'plandemics', we've managed to crush against the Ideal economic growth rate (2%-3%)- even in the Cov19 era. I'm not saying the credit should go to that old man, but the point I'm putting across is that we can see order and development in his regime.

60% of jubilee brigade are in Azimio - So the same jubilee will still be in power.

Put you numbers down and let's meet on 9th of August otherwise I consider very funny(for lack of a more apt term) when you call my political analysis shallow when I have predicted almost every election and referenda in kenya to the dot.

Let me help with 2017 for example.

1) Presidential race - I predicted 53-54 verus 45-46 with 1% for others. It was a dot. See the difference.
2) MPs: I predicted Jubilee & allied 159 - and result (158) - and NASA & allied 108 versus 108 - if you add women mp - it went 175 for Jubilee and 130mps for NASA.
3) Governors; I called 38 correctly and missed out on 9 (which were tight races) - Granton Samboja was only suprise for me.
4) Senate: same thing;

For 2022
Remember this figures
The presidential election projection.

Ruto - 52-54%
Raila - 44-46%
Wajackoyah -1%
Mwaura - 0.3%

The Parliament, Senate and Governors Projection

Parliament Senate Gov
UDA 182 27 26
ODM 63 11 5
JUBILEE 26 3 4
WIPER 18 3 4
ANC 12 0 2
FORDK 9 1 2
KANU 2 1 0
KK(affl) 7 0 0
AZ(affl)- 17 1 4
336 47 47
UDA Nom 7 12
ODM Nom 3 5
JUBILEE Nom 1 2
WIPER Nom 1 2
SPEAKER(KK) 1 1
349 69 47

Kenya Kwanza will control parliament of 210-220 - just 10mps shy of absolute majority required to change constitution.
Azimio - will struggle to get 130mps.

They are headed for a rout.

Wuoche:
Your political analysis is wanting. How can you claim that jubilee has distanced themselves from Rails when the likes of Peter Keneth, Sabina Chege, Ngunjiri Wambugu and Kanini Kega are among the the front mobilizers for Raila? One thing you have to understand is that Raila usually miss on Kisii and Kuria votes and this time round he has them in his pocket. For Mt. Kenya, he just need a fraction to clinch the seat, Western province is a fat dream for Kenya Kwanza. Again how can you depend on wetangula a person whose MP and governor are all from Raila's party? Even if we look at Mudavadi, he vied for presidency in 2013 and Raila defeated him on his own turf.

Tayser:
Don't forget Uhuru has core supporters in his home turf. Its not all about the rowdy youths on TV.

How does he transfer that to Raila and rally them when he is hiding in statehouse afraid to be heckled.Looking at Martha poorly attended rallies she cannot manage it alone.Unless uhuru engages directly which could cause image problems his jubilee folks are doing everything to distancing themselves from Raila..so Raila support base in Mt Kenya will remain at best 25 percent..if not even worse than that...Uhuru himself has an image problem as he seen by Mt Kenya has having dropped kibaki economic ball and bringing shame to the community by presiding a collapsing economy...so I don't see much hope for Raila in Mt Kenya.Maybe in a rigging schemes he stand a chance..

Jubilee 1st term ended in 2017 and the results was big win for Jubilee - meaning Kenyans liked what they had seen.

Jubilee improved from 51% to 55% - so much Raila boycottted a re-run. Normally incumbency is a curse because you've cannot promise people stuff - you've to defend previous promises - but Jubilee delivered and Ruto is a gifted propagandist who can sell your mother back to you.

What made Jubilee popular in 1st term - mostly the rural access roads- which has more than doubled compared to all years to independence - and electricity coverage that was world fastest. Those won votes Jubilee.

Now as we go to this election. Gov is VERY UNPOPULAR. This is mostly due to COVID, Ukraine and debt mismanagement. But whatever the case - anybody running on platform of the last five years - is going home with Uhuru. People are not in business to understand or excuse gov failures - it doesnt matter if it ukraine - or covid- they are hurting because inflation is gone through the roof. Their intuition therefore is change the gov for something is broken.

This has been Raila albatross - people are hurting from tough economic times - and the last thing they want to hear is status quo. They want change.

Shma:
Are we forgetting that Raila has been out of power since 2012?
Raila came into the picture in 2017(Again, where our economy saw a growth spurt with a whopping 5% - 10% growth rate.)

First 5yrs, the country was filthy, and projects were collapsing/stalling ubiquitously. Nairobi for instance was stinking to the high heaven, in the wake of poor leadership; Ruto being second in command.

I feel like RARUA can take our country far if given a chance.

If 2017 were real(Supreme court never really impugned the numbers - just the processes) - then UhuRuto had almost 1.5M gap - with Raila's NASA.

Therefore Ruto task is simple - to keep the 1.5M gap - every lost Mt kenya vote - he has to gain NASA vote. He can even afford to lose another 0.5M and still beat Raila by a million.

I think he done that. He has MaDVD, Weta, Kingi,Isaac Ruto, Nanok, Muthama - who were NASA generals - and has only lost the now lameduck Uhuru,Gideon & whatever Martha can marshal.

If you sum up the voters Ruto is gaining in NASA strongholds - it probably exceed what Raila is hoping to get in stubborn Mt kenya - and he still has 1.5M gap to surmount.

Martha/Gachagua is desperate attempt by Azimio to manufacture momentum. From her poorly attended rallies - I dont think Ruto has to worry about Mt-Kenya - Ruto has sustained Mt kenya for 5yrs - despite heavy barrage from state sanctioned onslaught - picking DPORK will not be deal breaker for those who have supported him.

Ruto numbers have remain solid for 5yrs now - almost at 50 percent of the decided voters for 5yrs - nothing will change Ruto core supporters in the next 50 days.

In terms of numbers - unless Mt Kenya is split 50-50 - Raila has no path to victory. We know he will struggle to even get 30 percent.

Tayser:
This has actually had the opposite effect because it has become easier to sell Raila with UK off the picture. People were against the old man because he seemed like a project. Dont also forget Rigathi is the main reason Ruto's campaign lost the oomph. He's literally a liability. Then his past was dug and horrific stories emerged. Regarding votes, do you think Ruto will gain as much votes from Mt K as Uhuruto in 2013/2017? If not then you can see why I see no chance for him. He needs to get virtually the entire vote and hope Rao gets nearly zero as has previously been the case. My bet is as good as yours.

I disagree. Kenya need men of steel like Gachagua. Kenya for a 20 yrs has been on carefree handling led by weak leaders - that has resulted in drug/betting epidemics - that would require a bit of Museveni/Kagame iron-clad leadership - and Rigathi bring that. If he was not DPORK - he would certainly be the Interior Minister.

If you go to most place in kenya - you find entire generation lost to miraa/drugs/betting - and this will require someone like Gachagua to straighten things up - by ensuring gov functions and runs. Otherwise laziness will continue - nothing will get done. Something need to be done to fix the broken society.

Asides of course of political consideration - Ruto was looking for someone strong enough to wade off Uhuru - and Gachagua has scared off Uhuru from campaign trail - so he already achieved his objective.

Does he scare people and remind them of KANU terror - of course - but both Ruto and Gachagua - share that same Moi philosophy of hands-on leadership

Tayser:
Rigathi is a stone age zinjanthropus whose brain is stuck to nyayo-era KANU like a broken clock. Ruto just needed to pick Kindiki and Raila would never have had a chance. But the sinister man armtwisted Ruto, who turned out to be surprisingly naive and controllable. Regarding corruption, both teams are equally tainted but atleast one is talking of fighting it while the other is mute.

Raila was great when we were dealing with governance issues. This ended on 2010 when we passed a new constitution. Now we are 10yrs into the 2nd republic and we need to refocus our energies into economic realm - bread & butter issues - and simply implement the 2010 constitution - a brilliant modern constitution.

Raila simply doesn't grasp the contemporary challenges and issues facing kenya.

Shma:
Bruv, I disagree with the emboldened. I'm not 'pro- him' per se, but the Azimio team as a whole. That being said, we shouldn't also take away the +ves of an old man. That man has Kenya's best interest at heart. He worked with Kibaki - when our economy took a new shape - with an upward trajectory. ( that's the only scenario where we can pluck the assertion of his capability on boosting Kenya's economy since he was in power)

Ruto manifesto will be out on 30th June. According to Ndii - Ruto has assembled the largest policy wonks ever - about 200 top brains are involved. Ruto has kept it under wraps because Raila is clearly running on empty and has been waiting to copy-paste. For the first time we have a semblance of issue based campaign although ethnicity remain the key.

Some of highlight of Ruto manifesto that I have been able to decipher.
1) Big push on Agri sector - there are at least 8 million farmers in Kenya - mostly dealing with basics - financing farming through cooperatives like happens in 60s and 70s - before Moi killed AFC/KGGC in 1980s and 1990s.

2) Big push on housing - end of slums/slum scrappers/kayoles - more formal housing - built on unprecedented scale that will be sold cheaply like used to happen before 1990s. There is no need of kayoles or pipelines or kiberas - informal housing sector.This will employ at least a million people. It will also free people investing in rental/housing to invest in proper business. The gov exit of formal housing in early 1990s due to Jirongo/mugoya company messes - gave us the rise of slumlords and kayoles all over - unplanned expensive dangerous and unsafe housing.

3) Big push in healthcare -everyone will get free primary healthcare. Continued investment in TIVET. End of CBC (unfortunately) and return to 8-4-4- implementation was bungled - cant be saved.

4) Big push on Water - for everyone.

5) Big push on SMES. Fixing market inefficiencies including removing large monopolies/regulatory/state captures. Leveling the playing ground for SMEs to thrive.

Nothing fancy.Nothing over-ambitious. Don't expect large infrastructure projects. The economy requires at least two years to recover from Covid/Ukraine blowout.

kikuyu1:
We're in agreement as in most cases....but. Frankly,I'm really not impressed with Ruto's recent moves. Firstly there was the abandonment,some say betrayal of Kindiki. Then there's other pronouncements like returning the ICD depots to Mombasa,free diapers for 3 months, 50% women in cabinet that have me rethinking things. I'm yet to hear viable ideas like operationalising the bottom up economic approach via reviving ethnic welfare associations to pool resources for members in group initiatives. Like your Sarun Amabet Welfare association or Myot group but more financially and economically inclined like Luo union or GEMA with group investments in real estate,hospitality,manufacturing etc,etc.
Mzee,as things stand now I may actually sit this one out.

He was always that - plus now old age has caught up with him. He will be a disaster except he has no way to win against an engine like Ruto who is meticulous

Saddamochieng00:
Raila's economic plan is an utter joke and begs the question if he even has an economic team. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if this is the case. The reports I've received from some of his people in 2007(ODM) and 2017(NASA) speaks of disorderliness, lack of vision, massive corruption(direct tickets), poor decision making, disloyalty, ingratitude....the list is long. All I'm trying to say is Baba is of questionable character and can't be trusted with that seat.

This is coming from a former supporter who practiced selective blindness over all these issues but with time couldn't overlook them anymore.

Nope. I am democrat. I will accept the result and move on.

Tayser:
Hopefully you won't mind deactivating for a week in my honour

Kazikazi:
you dont know TZ. By law,u cant refuse to move out of the land if the gov wants to use the land for public projects or any development projects.Those masais who tried to go against gov are from kenya.Even on SGR,many folks have been moved from their land to make a space for the longest electrified speedy SGR in Africa.

Even all other protected areas like the one I showed u above,people were moved from those areas.

One reason you can't develop..such weak property rights make people afraid to invest

Kazikazi:
About 35% of TZ land is a protected areas set aside for conservation.
Thanks to millions of fellows who gave away their ancestral lands for the sake of conservations.

Why do you need more land in this century.

Tayser:
I think the Roots fella is doing a social experiment? Hard to understand what he's doing. Typically I don't get too deep into these things but I can give an estimate of 51-57 for Azimio and 42-49 for KK, barring a massive change in the political landscape. 55 days is a very long time in politics anything can happen. We live in the same environments but perceive reality differently.

Well noted..45 for Ruto versus 55 for Raila with 3 percent error rate..Let's see on night of the 9th.It should be easy to call once results stream in.

Did you finish evicting Maasai from their ancestral so you can sell the land for hunting by a few Arabs - your dependable colonizers since 10th century.

Kazikazi:
loomalasin,Tanzania

There is no runoff scenario unless Wajackoyah gains momentum. This already a run-off as the line up is very clear binary choice.

Kenya politics is tribal - Martha can only cause an impact in Mt Kenya - and if she fails to get traction there - then Azimio will have wasted DPORK...because Ukambani might not vote enthusiastically like it would.

Is she getting traction in Mt kenya - it appears her momentum didnt last a week - and it's fizzled out.
Her rallies this week in Muranga, Kirinyanga and Nyeri were pure disaster as folks kept off.


Anyway we have one and half month to go.

Put you numbers. After 9th August. We will meet here.

Tayser:

Alright bro, we'll see. In my view it all hinges on Martha's effect. If the undecided voters go her way the Azimio camp will easily garner 60 %. If not then there will be a runoff. I just cant see how Ruto will win, honestly. Lets wait and see.

He has no upper hand. Kenya elections are easy to call. I have personally predicted every kenya election or referenda bar 2007 almost to a dot.

This British Prof who has Phd in kenya politics similarly does this regularly.
http://www.charleshornsby.com/kenya-blog

He is predicting 51 percent for Ruto and 49 percent for Raila - I am predicting 53 percent with 46 percent for Raila. Opinion polls in kenya have very serious reliability problems because their sampling framework is faulty. Until you factor ethnicity as the key variable in understanding kenya politics - you're bound to get wrong - and all you need is deeper understanding of the ethnic tapestry that is kenya - as 1st step.

Dr Charles Horsnby understand kenya politics like no one - and some of his books - are very illuminating.

You should read his 2022 take - and if you're interested his previous analysis and books are available
https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds/2022/03/28/predicting-winners-and-losers-in-the-august-2022-poll-the-numbers-game/

http://www.charleshornsby.com/kenya-blog

Shma:
I still think Raila has Kenya's best interest at heart. That old man has pioneered most projects which are currently ongoing; including the expressway.

Currently, he has an upper hand... Maybe 57% against Ruto.

I had to read that twice.

My father also met Ruto under almost exact same circumstance around the same time.
Previously my father had no time for KANU and it's orphan. Despite us being same tribe with Moi - my father was key DP (Kibaki) supporter.
I grew up also supporting DP - my dad considered kibaki a brilliant leader - so through 90s we supported and voted for him - he use to get 3-5 votes in entire constituency from our family - Moi got everything else.

Long story short - in 2007 I was disappointed with Kibaki tribalism and abandoning the narc dream - esp devolution.federalism - in Bomas - so I joined ODM - my father stuck with Kibaki - distrusting Raila - he was now reduced to 1 vote for Kibaki - in our family.

Of course we have violence and all that - Ruto get appointed to Min of Kilimo. My father and others had been struggling to be allowed to sell their tea to multinationals- who are besides our farms. KTDA had blocked all such attempts despite tea being liberazed (sp) in 1995. Sometimes they would allow it - then block it.

Long story short - Ruto gave my father and his group - a six am appointment - and in 10 minutes solved a problem that had been lingering for almost 20yrs. The battles we had with KTDA were many. Ruto took a phone call - told the MD of KTDA to read the tea act - and smallholder tea farms in my area were allowed to freely sell their tea. In five years our village totally transformed as now people were able to get 40shs per kilo - paid instantly - and didnt have to wait for a year - and there were no quality or tea overstaying - or name it. Biggest problem if you have large tea farms - those quality standards are too exating.

Anyway from then my father was sold. Ruto is one serious guy who report to office at even 5 am in the morning - and is very punctual - and put in real hardwork for long hours.

Kenya in 10yrs with his leadership will change like Ethiopia did under Meles.

Uhuru and Mois are desperate to stop him using Raila - but as long as they have failed to convince your people the kikuyus to board Raila train - Ruto is sleepwalking to statehouse.

kikuyu1:
My dad interacted with him as their factory imported tea fertiliser around '09 . He said he's hard-working WITH an eye for detail. Fyi, he brought back extension officers when he was in Agri. I know he's one guy who won't take RAOs usual post election loss destabilisation efforts quietly.

In what sense. Most problems can be solved by common sense.

popizaino:
Rvp can sometimes be comical.

No problem. Let's meet on august 10th. These will be more or less the numbers.

The presidential election projection.

Ruto - 53-54%
Raila - 45-46%
Wajackoyah -1%
Mwaura - 0.3%

The Parliament, Senate and Governors Projection

Parliament Senate Gov
UDA 182 27 26
ODM 63 11 5
JUBILEE 26 3 4
WIPER 18 3 4
ANC 12 0 2
FORDK 9 1 2
KANU 2 1 0
KK(affl) 7 0 0
AZ(affl)- 17 1 4
336 47 47
UDA Nom 7 12
ODM Nom 3 5
JUBILEE Nom 1 2
WIPER Nom 1 2
SPEAKER(KK) 1 1
349 69 47

Remember those numbers - and on 10th August - Let's review.

How Azimio hope to win and run gov when Ruto's Kenya Kwanza will have nearly the absolute majority of Mps and senators is BEYOND me

Tayser:
I don't think so. He effed up so badly the last couple weeks while Raila made a serious monkey jump that has made it impossible for Ruto to gain new ground. This will actually be the most clear cut election since 2002/03.