₦airaland Forum

What useless point?
Ghana when it had electricity problems - did not invest money - it simply changed the regulations - and invited IPPS.
IPPS came - put down the investment - and generated power.
Kenya did the same.
Nigeria can do the same.
Only mistake Ghana did was to go overboard - in signing IPPS - which have take or pay clauses.

And situation now - half the capacity is going to waste - Ghana is paying IPPS not to run the turbines.

Ghana currently has over 5,300 MW of installed generation capacity, though actual availability rarely exceeds 2,400 MW due to changing hydrological conditions, inadequate fuel supplies and dilapidated infrastructure.
https://www.usaid.gov/powerafrica/ghana

Just40:
Posting a whole lot of non issue like the lunatic you are.

You made a useless point and you were corrected, now you are all around the place. Where were you educated again?

I know you're mad man but for sake of others - let me engage you.

The last large public investment Ghana did was 1960s buiding of volta dam.

Otherwise most of the investment came from IPPS - as of 2016 - private sector were doing 2000MW compared to 2500MW that gov of Ghana has invested (with 1,000MW being the Volta dam built by Nkurumah ages ago).



The participation of independent power producers (IPPs) in Ghana has continued to grow since the thermal Takoradi Power Station was first built in Aboadze in 2004. Indeed, IPPs are quickly catching up to public generation in terms of capacity. As of October 2017, the power capacity that is provided by IPPs and non-state-run power plants in Ghana stands at 1925 MW, compared to 2456 MW of installed capacity at the state-backed primary electricity generation utility Volta River Authority (VRA). In total, there are nine IPPs providing electricity, including the 400-MW Bui Dam, seven thermal plants with installed capacity of 1505 MW, and the 20-MW solar plant completed by BXC Ghana, a subsidiary of China-based industrial conglomerate Beijing Fuxing Xiao-Cheng Electronic. The interest in IPPs is likely to continue into 2018 and beyond as additional projects come on-line and policies encourage the engagement of private energy players.


According to a 2016 World Bank report, there are 126 IPPs present in 18 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, providing more than 13% of total installed generation capacity. Ghana has the fourth-highest capacity generated by IPPs and ranks third in terms of investment, after South Africa, Kenya and Nigeria, with both metrics growing

https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/analysis/private-players-independent-producers-set-have-increasingly-important-role#:~:text=In%20total%2C%20there%20are%20nine,Beijing%20Fuxing%20Xiao%2DCheng%20Electronic.

Just40:
There's nothing like zero cost when it comes to resolving electricity issue.
It cost Ghana 13 to 16 billion dollars to resolved it recent electricity issues.

As I speak, some of the works are still going on. Like the restraining of over 10,000km of high voltage GRIDCO transmission lines in order to completely move the transmission lines from the 1950s technology.

As well as making the country less vulnerable by creating 3 more energy hubs instead of relying on the current ones in Tema and Takoradi.
Power plants are being moved to Central Ghana specifically Kumasi to stabilize the entire central Ghana.
And others will be moved to Northern Ghana.

All of this is money intensive and Nigeria will need at least 40 billion dollars.

Transmission should be split.
It's like road network.
There are federal roads.
There are state roads.
Abuja should build federal transmission lines.
Those are heavy ones that can transport lots of power from big power stations - say 1,000MW - to each state transmission center.
From there - the state transmission take over.
They can feed into federal line or their own lines.
Gov jobs ends there - to be umpire - now each supply company and each distribution company - sell power to each other
And gov ensure payments are done in timely manner - and any maintainance coordinated.
These state govs can do.
Abuja then focus on building high transmission lines and really big power stations that become the backbone of the network.
States then focus on reticulation - and ensuring law and order - no illegal connections, timely payment to generating companies, etc.
That is hard part that Nigeria has not started working on.
Adding more hardware - will not solve such problems - of illegal connections, tampering, late or no payment to generating companies, no payment to oil or gas companies, no payment to banks who lend such sectors, delayed salaries to power staff.

theenchanter:
exactly, this was the talk sometime ago, but I don't think they're ready for full unbundling.

Some states are actually building theirs.

But another thing I want u to know is that fed govt is only involved in transmission section of the power sector, not generation and distribution.

Why not unbundle for every state to manage their small network?
Why do you need that complicated network?
This afternoon law change in Abuja - allow every state to do their own electricity reticulation.
Federal gov should step out.
Each state can attract investment - and deal with power issues.

In Kenya - constitution- Counties (way small than states) - have the power to manage their own electricity.

theenchanter:
it's more of hardware than software. The transmission lines need to be expanded to carry over 25gw of power.

Right now, the transmission lines can only carry 5gw, anything over than that, it'll collapse.

You're wasting money.
Obasanjo spend 16B dollars; Total wasted money; Nigeria remain in darkness.
Kenya and Ghana spend almost zero; most investment coming in as IPPS.
Kenya and Ghana have stable electricity.
The reason is once you fix regulatory and systemic issues - electricity will attract private investment - because this like Telcom.
There is ready market for electricity in Nigeria. Private sector will invest and get money. Nigeria gov should invest IN EDUCATION.
It's just too chaotic for anyone to come in - with illegal meters and broken transmission.

theenchanter:
nah, Lagos can't. Lest many sector will suffer for it.

But the good thing is that u don't to pay once for these kind of projects, it's a govt-to-govt project, no middlemen involved.

I think Nigeria has already made part payment sha.

Nigeria has installed capacity of 12,000MW - and it can barely get 4,000MW. So hardware is not the problem. The problem is software.

From your article...I see 10M meter gap and then we have illegal connection problem. These are easy to fix problems that cost very little. A pre-paid meter cost about 25 dollars....which customers can happily bear ..if not..it will cost 250M dollars. The rest is to get army and police to go house to house like a census....making sure...no illegal connection has been done....and everyone has pre-paid meters.

Those pre-paid meters connected to mobile money/fintech to generate tokens...will see money flowing to distribution companies...and once they are not bankrupt...they will pay for electricity.

As of now - large majority of that 8,000MW that is idle - is because the turbines wont run as distro companies wont pay - generating companies dont have money to buy gas or diesel or whatever they use to run turbines.

End result - waste of money - which is quite common in Nigeria.

Subsaharan:
Over 6m meters are being currently installed all around the country, it's a holistic plan.


https://punchng.com/world-bank-cbn-fully-funding-six-million-meters-fg/

Generation is being upgraded.

Transmission and distribution, these things take time

You've met Nigerians, very impatient.

They were subsidies on power too, they have been successfully eradicated, so as far as the ongoing installation of prepaid meters is a success, Discos would start running a profitable business for the first time.

Okay. I dont think problem is technical - I think problem is commercial- it starts with metering - and until that is sorted - this yet another wasteful expenditure like Obasanjo one.

The solution has to start in installing pre-paid meters - and sending army or someone to remove all illegal connections - and making it illegal to connect illegally.

Once you do that - supply companies - will have money to pay distribution companies - who will then run the turbines. With money flowing - they will then have money to invest in technical stuff.

But if you think the problem is transformers/turbines/transmission wires - you're going NOWHERE. Broke supply and transmission companies will not run the turbines or have staff to fix transmission issue.

The total cost for Nigeria to fix electricity issues - is zero - just send the army with power companies armed with millions of pre-paid meters - and within a week - Nigeria power companies will be swimming in money.

Subsaharan:
The power issues are currently being sorted

Nigeria got a deal from Germany to upgrade its transmission lines(largely the cause of power outages and grid collapses)

Similar to the one Egypt got. A $2.3bn deal(Technology transfer + 50% local content)

https://new.siemens.com/ng/en/products/energy/topics/presidential-power-initiative-nigeria.html

Although Mr. Tinubu would take all the credit, the first set of transformers would be arriving in the country in Q4.


https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2022/04/27/siemens-deal-electricity-supply-equipment-to-begin-arriving-from-germany-in-september/

The he is the best. Electricity issues will for example be sorted by dealing with supply/distribution and generation companies issues. Those are business that are inefficient - and you need a business mind to figured it out.

The same way Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala fixed Nigeria banking - and now it's only sector in Nigeria thriving - is what is required in other sectors.

Subsaharan:
Tinubu is a textbook capitalist.

Nigerian political parties are not ideological, it's just different gangs of the elite class hustling for power for the sake of it.

To run the country the way they feel would be best.

Those are minor issues - how it sold - and for how much - is irrelevant. This something that is choking Nigeria economy.

You should not care who get it. Most of the time whoever get it will become saddled with debts - and huge staff - and will spend years cleaning it up - court cases and name it.

What you should focus is the objective of that privatization. If for example inefficient gov refineries will allow more Dangote to invest in the sector - then Dangotes or private investors - will create more efficient refinieres.

SOEs are closes to having communism that is proven failed model.

Subsaharan:
I have no problem with this.

A lot of those assets are a liability to the state.

Like the refineries for instance(spending $ms to pay union workers for doing nothing)

But it should be done in a proper manner where all investors are given a level playing field and the best emerges.

If precedence is anything to go by, it will not be favourable to Atiku.

The purpose of privatization is not for gov to make money. I can understand Russia type of messed up privatization but overriding reason of privatizing state own companies is to free the economy - to broaden capitalism - and that is magic that will create more companies/wealth.

Nigeria Gov should sell most of it's SOEs for one Naira....and move on. SOEs not only stymie the economy - they also become an albatross as it saddle gov with debts, guarantees and occasional bailout.

Sell nearly all SOES - and focus on being a regulator - capitalism or free market - will work the magic. If you privatize but still do not allow free market to thrive - then that is huge Russia like mess. Otherwise if Atiku bought gov SOES for cheap - but everyone is allowed to compete - soon his companies will go down - because the market economy is VERY BRUTAL.

Subsaharan:
Yeah privatization, but to his cronies and himself for 20% the value of state property.

GeneralDae:
You don't get it. I mean the deals were non beneficial in the end. Sold to incompetent, or corrupt people or sold less than the ideal prices with no benefit to the masses in the end.
Removing Atiku from the equation, generally in my view, Government should have at least 30% ownership in the major businesses. Hence I'm not excited by the idea of privatisation.

You cannot privatize while choking the private sector through Abuja misguided policies.Otherwise gov has no business own even a share of any business and should be a regulator.Privitisation should be done 50 percent through IPO and 50 percent to strategic investor who understands that business... Nigeria privatisation failed mostly because it's didn't sell to strategic investors.Kenya mostly succeeded because we sold at least 40 percent first to big global companies in that space then rest to the public through IPO.

68816419:
So who are you supporting to win the upcoming election?

You have 55 days to decide who to vote for..or skip the presidential ballot or whole election..not voting is part of democratic process

Tayser:
He won't need to. Finally, this time round all stars have aligned in his favor.

on 10th August less than two months.. you will see him lose with huge margin. My prediction is Ruto will win by 54 versus 45 with wajackoyah taking 1 percent.Kenya election are easy to predict because of its ethnic orientation and as long as Raila has failed to get Kikuyu vote he is going nowhere.But no need for long arguments...let wait for 50 days

I am sure you're typing this amidst the humming melodies of generators. Nigeria the zoo I didnt even mention. I mentioned South Africa. You're NOTHING. A dysfunctional country. Ghana is better than you.

Compare yourselves with Somalia. Burundi. Chad. Niger. Such countries.

Balogunodua:
You dumb Kenyan will keep catching up in your fantasy land with Alice as your companion while the hellhole called Kenya rot away in an endless pit of suffering, starvation and destruction...



Now go FCK yourself and say hi to the drunkard you called President...

There is good reason why he hasn't been elected. His father was like Nyerere, Nkurumah and other misguided socialists or communist.

His father became Kenya 1st Vice President and he got shipped to East Germany - where he studied communism and other Russian nonsense. He came back and tried to overthrow the gov and failed severally.

He nearly succeeded in 1982 - when coup plotter took over gov for 6hours - they got drunk - and were taken out one by one - and Moi gov restored.

He was then jailed for 9yrs - got luckly as his father pleaded for mercy - his co-plotters were hanged to death.

His father then run for presidency in 1992 and came third. He run in 1997 - I was in high school then - came third or fourth - and has over the years failed.

This is his last run.

He has absolutely no chance despite being supported by gov and Uhuru. Ruto my candidate is incredibly brilliant tactician with money and unmatched hunger or ambition for power.

Ruto is 55yrs - he is approaching 80yrs. He can barely stay awake. We are going to end his misery in 55 days.

obaaderemi:
If you get Odinga, there would be governance reforms. That guy has his own special agenda since the 80s, probably in line with his father's ideas.

Yes apart from health concern - I think Tinubu has the cojones to reform Nigeria. Nigeria requires someone who has three balls. Obasanjo for me was that kind of leader. Ultimately lots need to change. In Kenya we are building on the gains. We have 2nd republic with new constitution...and we just need to fully implement it. We dont need governance reforms...we just need to reform our work ethic.

obaaderemi:
Tinubu is a better manager of resources than obasanjo or Okonjo. He dreams big, like he did for Lagos when he was governor. And swatting aside the grand fulani coalition against a southern presidency to emerge his party's candidate shows he hasn't lost his touch despite age and recent battles with his health.

By the time a progressive such as Tinubu finishes 8 years, Nigeria would solidify its rightful place and there would absolutely be no reason for a debate with countries such as Kenya on development.

Like I said I cannot be objective because I am deeply involved in Ruto campaigns. You're free to support the perenial loser Raila and we meet on 10th august. I definitely strongly belief that Ruto is an exceptional leader. That is just me. I am sure your political opinion is also right. Nobody here is wrong. We get one ballot. We tick. No explanation. No right. No wrong. We wait for the results. Whoever has more votes win - and we wait for 5yrs.

cossano:
stop embarrassing Kenyans abroad, what kind of nonsense is this? Ruto a great leader? Oh please!

With Ruto; Kenya in 10yrs will have caught up with South Africa; and poor Nigeria can only dream; We have 50 days almost to elect a Meles Zenawi who will transform our society. And we have good base to start with. I have been volunteering on Ruto campaigns working long hours - we are confident we will beat Raila who is backed by the drunkard president like an African talking drum of Cameroon.

We have the most complete political player - Phd, orator, quick thinker, tactician, smart, name it.

Our calculation is Ruto will win by 55 percent and will have 210-220 mps - ony 10 shy of absolute majority required to change the constitution.

If you listen to Ruto - you immediately know - he is not average politician - he is smart as whip

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4UIksvFAFI

GeneralDae:
Lol . Okay oo

He cant. Too old. Ruto doesnt joke. Raila violence start in 1982 failed coup and is ending in two months. He can barely stay a wake.

You should listen to Ruto - so you know what leaders nigeria are missing. Ruto is closest to Meles Zenawi we have in Africa.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4UIksvFAFI

GeneralDae:
Hope Ralia would not cause infighting and riots if he loses?

Ruto who is one front runner is now live on NTV. I am personally deeply involved in his campaigns and I cannot be objective - but I believe Ruto will beat Raila like an african drum. Ruto is intelligent, charismatic, well spoken, hardworking and a natural leader in the mold of Meles Zenawi, Kagame and Museveni in East Africa.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4UIksvFAFI

Meanwhile Kenya heads to it's general election in less than two months. Kenya has held general elections every 5yrs without fail since independence in 1963. Only Tanzania and Zambia are amongst few countries to have done the same for that long.

The battle has officially reduced to 4 candidates - from 60 candidates - because of stringent requirement - a president or a governor must for example have a degree- to avoid Buhari type - and must collect 48,000 signatures bla de bla.

The front runners is current deputy president Ruto - and former prime minister (when kenya had transitional gov following 2007 post election violence) - Raila. They are neck to neck.

Next is guy who want legalize weed, introduce snake farming, four day work week, and suspend the constitution after he is elected - one Prof Wajackoyah who has 16 degrees and is nut case. The last is pastor I think.

Governors race - of the 47 governors - The mercurial charismatic thug Sonko who was impeached in Nairobi - has moved to Mombasa - and if he is eligible will win second city - by landslide. Drug kingpin, land fraudster, a jailbird, and an alley cat - Sonko - has been blocked for now - for being impeached in Nairobi - but if eligible will make the record by running two kenya biggest cities as it's governor.

That is what democracy give you....a whole array of characters.

If Obasanjo is still eligible why not elect him. He was by far the best president of Nigeria. Next you can ask WTO to release DG Okonjo - that one woman who can fix Nigeria. But I agree Tinubu if he is healthy is way better than useless VP of Buhari - that weakling of a prof.

Whatever you do - look for a reformist - for Nigeria NEED RADICAL DEEP REFORMS - that only Obasanjo was able to undertake as he switched the country from military dictatorship to democracy.

The current VP look like a quintessential conformist. Obina might be hobbled by Igbo exceptionalism.

The other guy - who lost to the useless Buhari - is also good. I guess he comes from north and Nigeria is tearing apart on it's seams and another Northerner will just send it more and more to civil war.

obaaderemi:
He is no saint. But he is a total capitalist. He brought a lot of positive attention to Lagos and left behind a solid team. Most of Fashola's projects were his idea. Remember when he brought Enron to Lagos and the FG frustrated it.

His creation of extra lcdas in Lagos was in response to the north instituting sharia law in some of their States. If there's any of these contestants who can stand up to the north, it's Tinubu. Look at how he spoilt buharis game plans at the primaries. He can offer a lot but his health falls under a question mark though.

Interesting - yeah our coast represent huge potential - that remain untapped.

kikuyu1:
Speaking of which recently I was in Msa. I drove down again to check out a Patrol (the same level with ZX performance wise), research jaggery ( rmbr 3 yrs ago I told you about sugarcane in Kwale? Those MOFOS still haven't paid us!) and what may very well make me move base to the coast permanently: fish biz, incl RAS mariculture either land RAS, Recirculated Aquaculture System which uses tanks (check out https://kamuthangafarm.com/ Mua Hills, gallivant , you know the place?) or sea cages.
Mzee, Kenya lies within the tuna belt! Do you have any idea how much Japs pay for bigeye, albacore and yellowfin?
Mind you Atlantic Bluefin easily costs 4x these Indian Ocean types. Anyway, we're farrr behind the curve- Uhuru did good with the Blue Economy thing but we're so behind in fishfarming it's not even funny.
Will get back with a more detailed post.

We are not talking now- we are talking the future. Chinese cities 30yrs ago where shi.tholes - now!!. Nairobi is already the top city in Africa by Expat.

What QOL are you talking about...are you going to rank EIU (economist) above everything else.

10yrs from now - Nairobi will be untouchable in Africa - maybe Cairo will have something to say.

jl115:
agggg please not this "most dynamic" kak again just look at the cities mentioned.... 90% including Nairobi are literal sh1tholes!!

Now tell me where does Nairobi rank on an index that really matters... Like QOL?

Kenya as whole has long way to get to South Africa level - Nairobi as a city - NOPE. This is very real - done by the 2nd biggest real estate company in the world

jl115:
how?.... We spend six times more on infrastructure than Kenya..... Even though our infrastructure gap is less than 1% of GDP....... Kenya has a 11% infrastructure gap..... But you think you are catching up??

Get real bru

Very much doubt - right now it's Joburg, Capetown, Pretoria and Durban - which are in Nairobi level - but Nairobi will leapfrog them - because Nairobi is growing in all parameters - and at much faster rate.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fB3yN-ITb2U

jl115:
except basically every South African city since we are decades ahead

Once again I'd like to remind you that Nairobi is 4th world most dynamic city. 10 more of years of construction - and no sub-sahara city will come close.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMjkHxLp1BA

I see depression everywhere with 30yr old second hand cars.

obaaderemi:
See greenery everywhere.

Compare apples with apple and Oranges with Oranges.
Public infrastructure - your budget is 4 times kenya - though you spend 65 percent on wages and 30 percent on recurrent expenditure.
That leaves you only with 5 percent - for infrastructure.
So if you budget is 130b (last I checked)
That mean you're spending about 7B dollars on development.

jl115:
@shma

Your latest budget for energy, infrastructure and ITC... Was Ksh335 billion

South Africa
Public infrastructure - R812 billion
Energy - R9.2 billion
catalytic and blended finance projects(for infrastructure) - 17.2 billion
ISA fund-R96billion


In other words SA spend about $60-64billion on infrastructure a year and Kenya spends around $2.8 billion.....

Exactly. PPP is use for poverty analysis.

jl115:
poverty figures factor in ppp thus the above is irrelevant.

You can try catch up if you can but Nairobi has joburg on her sight.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cdGYdeL7J4

Reminder; this not even 1/4 of Nairobi. Stop heckling; Nairobi is on it's way to overtaking Joburg.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuoAznN-Alc

Heckling will not slow down Nairobi

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UpfIKfg1qC0

samorobo:
Lmao,I put it to you blind goat that Nairobi is nothing close to Addis Ababa. Now hurry,take that to the bank and cash it taahira.