₦airaland Forum

looks like the cats out of the bag for nigerian-german, fantastic result, though i think the ibtc report was a bit conservative, by march 2008(by the time its full year is released) the eps will be 1.4 and it should make it to 25naira easily.
its funny but japaul oil is now a net bid stock almost evry day now. it was on net offer for a long time. gues that result has pushed up its bidding.

windywendy, congratulations on ur bundle of joy, may she give u all the happiness ur heart can desire
pls post often cos ur opinions r always very much appreciated

Temmie10:
The story of the NSE

obviously eps and pe calculations are difficult cause to get an audited result takes like forever.
And when u do get it, u'll need mo answers to your mo questions, all u need to do is look at access' audited reports
if and when you do get the answers, the cat has moved, the market has acted and you may not be able to take advantage of your total due diligence.

this is naija and as u know, our problem is information disparity especially regarding our market.
Most companies release half year unaudited result for june in august, audited only comes next year at the time of the company's choosing.

we cannot make 100% calculations or predictions then but the best i feel is to act even with the incomplete information, take a calculated risk and still profit. we can at least say with some level of clarity, which company's figures look more attractive within the realms of available information., afterall thats why we share views, not that we have the fuller image but we complete our views to the best of our abilities

i am not saying its wrong to get audited reports, i am just highlighting the flaws in our system.

temmie10, very well said.
whatever the case may be with crusader and the acquired coys., i know it is one of the power houses of the insurance sector. will stick with it, what u think

EMaachile, u mixed the eps with the pes. but nice report, from what u have down, zenith and intercontinental look like the best going forward, but pay attention to diamond and skye, these are sleepers that will give u as much gains as the rest

deezle, if u read the last 5 pages of this topic alone. you will know what to buy.
good luck.

concerning the mbenefits 400m result, they should do better in their last half as that was the case last year, im sure they will record at least 100% growth in profit as most of these coys. are doing, however, all the confusion on which coys.will make it might make me take a chill pill on this one.
for now at least

---------------------------------------------------------------------------- easimoni, why are u so off banks right now. is there something im missing

yudiyokun,
5 was gotten by projected eps of 0.25 multiplied by an assumed pe of 20

easimoni:
@ koksie,

Nice work Shig!

i learnt from the best oga.
by the way, easimoni, why are u so off banks right now. is there something im missing

koksie boy
i would say crusader , mbenefits , oceanic, wema for short term aggresive stuff(6 months)
for long term, oceanic, intercontinental, diamond, flour mills and oando, these have the lowest pes in their respective sectors with very good projected eps.

@ easimoni,
thanks for ur great work on insurance stocks at you- know- where
what i want to ask is are u sure mbenefits doesnt have anymore outstanding shares cos its eps looks pretty good and i want to make sure b4 jumping in.
also, on niger insurance, did u factor in the recent 1 for 5 bonus that was issued . cos niger insurance looks like another gem.

@ whitelexi, i think he is right , mbenefits has a projected eps of 0.25. it should be at least 5.20 in the next six months.

koksie baba
how u doing. the lower pe ratios dont always mean thats the one to buy and different industries have different average p/e ratios so u shouldnt take average of every thing. banks have an average of about 28 while petroleum sector is about 16, so do it industry by industry. however, the best parameter to use should be forecasted eps and also forward p/e(dividing the current price by that forecasted eps) these 2 should give u an idea of which stocks should be good by its year end or thereabouts ,also always remember to factor in shares not yet listed when calculating.
also, the portfolio division makes perfect sense.

@ temmie10, easimoni, thanks for the info on c&i, guess ill just hold and wait, thats the funny thing about this market, all these asset management coys. never seem to factor in new yet-to-be listed shares.
anyway, i thought id let you guys in on 2 banking stocks not so talked about but should do well by middle next year.
(easimoni, i know u dont like banks )
1) diamond bank; by my calcs has a projected eps of 1.12k by its year end and that is assuming 45% growth, these banks are doing better than that presently. that gives it the same projected eps as access bank and its trading at a lower price. unless they decide to come out with an offer as well, this is a good one with a strong eps. its also important to note they have the 2nd smallest forward pe among all banks.
2) skye bank; rumor of bonus issue by its year end, also coming out with po in 1st half of next year and it has a projected eps of 0.6, which should talk it to a fair value of 16(if u compare with fcmb which has just a slightly higher eps and assuming pe of 26.
hope this helps.

@ easybabe
u fine for that ur picture ooo.
im yellow and handsome, lets hook up.
contact me if intersted.
but on the real. abortion is a serious thing, if ou love her so much, u shouldnt have even given her the idea to abort.
just pray hard and go and talk to her about it. love is a great thing and if shes what u say she is, losing her will be devastating

@ temmie10, thank you very much for your advice and ur assistance. that kind of talk really gives me confidence.
remain blessed.

@ easimoni,
thats the spirit dont give up on wema. there was a report this morning in the vanguard about wemas upcoming p.o and the MD advised people to buy wema now cos when the result hits, the price is gonna go haywire. lets hope and pray.
thanks for the intercontinental advice. with this bearish market, im getting confused as to what to buy right now, u see im a new investor(bout three months old) and i dont know any other market but the bullish one. these are what im thinking right now, pls tell me what u think.
c&i leasing; with that forecast eps of 66k, it should be good even in a low p/e ratio market.
crusader; good result and full year should be better.
wema, nig-germ, and oceanic/intercontinental for the long long term.
i know flour mills is very good, but the price is kinda high and hence margins should be low.
holla back.

@ easimoni
how bodi? i am caught in a dilemma when it comes to intercontinental bank. i have a forecast eps of 1.44 by year end which should bring it to a value of 38 naira all things been equal. i made sure i factored in the p.o shares but my problem is i hear its 774% oversubscribed . do u think i should still go for this one or should i wait a bit cos i dont want to miss out . it might be a very very diluted eps.

steevie, i thought i gave u advice on first inland earlier and u said u would hold on to it. so whats the big fuss, i dont think much of first inland in the short term but who knows.

@ egoldman, companies normally make their results public 2-4 months after the year end, so u can expect oceanics full year result around late november or early december, however, i think u should buy about 2 months before hand as im sure the price will appreciate b4 the result in anticipation of a bonus offer.

i don miss evrybody here .
@ temmie10, i was able to lay my hands on some crusader myself.
@easimoni, c&i leasing lost 5% yesterdsy, i think it should be available now if ure still intersted.
what do u guys think bout mbenefits for now.
pls holla

@ easimoni, i think im in the same position as you cos i got a lot riding on wema!! what has kept me going is this rumor of bonus and public offer. i think i might divest some as well and go for something else. right now, im thinking c&i, or mbenefits cos its half year is expected soon.

@ easimoni, dont tell me ur giving up on wema too? at least hang on for a while.
so wanajo, whats ur take on wapic cos this sector gets more confusing the more u seem to think u can understand it.

@ wanajo, but surely ,fundamentals will still hold sway even in the bearest of markets shouldnt it

its very wise to do that for access but thats if youll get it. i dont nkow of any1 who succesfully got first bank after the ts was lifted cos it was scarce. the same will probably happen with access but if ure lucky enough to get it go for it!!!
i think japaul is too far away from now for me to say.

koksie boy, if thats the case then intercontinental, oceanic, mbenefits, wapic, crusader, japaul, the list is endless for 1 year return. u should get at least 40% on any of those in 1 year, its good to see uve already programmed ur mind to a year, when i first came here i was looking for three months

valhalla, if u already contribute 10% of ur salary, thats a good step, as per the loan , i think its risky cos most people are happy to get 30% returns on investment in a year. and u need to outperform that, i dont think its worth the risk, unless u can beat those rates down.

koksie boy, one very important thing ive learnt on nairaland is there is no investment with at least six month time frame, there should be no rush in trading stocks.
the best i can say for short term is wema bank, oceanic, and crusader or mbenefit on the insurance side.
mbenefit still has to release their half year result and it should be impressive

oga wanajo, when our beloved wema go release result its getting frustrating.

koksie boy, first of all, what exactly are u looking for. is it long term investment or short term of 6months? u have invested very well so far in first bank, oceanic and skye, but these are all long term cos u wont get ur certificates for some time(put a year in mind). if u ask me, the 1m u have now should be put in stocks u can get in the secondary market(from the floor) cos uve already tied down quite a lot of money.
for long term gains, go for intercontinental , oceanic(from floor), c&i leasinng, and maybe insurance stocks like wapic, crusader.
u should get some good gains out of those.
good luck

@ easimoni, pls dont forget wapic? i think thats the number 1 insurance coy. right now.
in its last result, it got an eps of 69k, although i dont know anything about how many shares they yet have to list from their p.o, but their projections for its next year result is looking good even though its just a ten month year. forcasted eps of about 1naira.

@ valhalla, really dont know much about sterling trust and asset managers, but if u are going into a loan of 1 million, i hope ur knowledge of fundamentals are good cos the interest rate might be high.
what r the loan conditions?