₦airaland Forum

Could the delay in starting the second phase of operation turai taka bango eventually be a catastrophic mistake? The military weakened one faction of the terrorists group and now the other faction is trying to feed fat on the weakness of their rivals and grow in strength.
What exactly is causing the delay in starting the second phase of the offensive. The raining season is here(though we haven't had much rains) and it has not even begun at all. Did we change the former service chiefs at the wrong time?
Nigeria's best bet is to hope the jihadi civil war will continue for as long as possible to weaken both factions. JAS is very weak right now but I pray they get the help of their allies soon.

Valkrie:
So you also have insider in swap now that give you Intel that the trucks where not up to 50 or you have some cia agents on ground who counted the trucks when they where going for the attack...?

Haba small small nah...this your intel don dey look like APC people promise oh...!!

How did the person whose report we are relying on also know the number of guntrucks? C'mon now.....

SamuelAnyawu:
50 Guntrucks ain’t much Na. ISWAP moves sometimes with more than this number. Even Fulani’s always come to military formations to give them info of seeing Large numbers of ISWAP gathering.


The problem is our sit down nature of the military here. Such info is no ish in as much as they don’t come to attack the military formation.

We cannot win this war by allowing them to bring this attacks to us.

Well let’s see how things unfolds.

Please SamuelAnyawu, has the frequency of air operations increased or decreased since you got to Maiduguri?

Valkrie:
We should be ashamed and crying...what the almighty Nigerian army could not do..I swap did with their 50 gun truck...!! Haba who is deceiving who?

What's the big deal here? Sambisa has been cleared more than once by the army. The army has attacked and dislodged JAS several times from various parts of sambisa. The problem had always been preventing JAS from coming back and the fact that ISWAP is also dislodging them today doesn't mean they won't come back. It will be stupid of NA to commit troops to preventing JAS from reoccupying sambisa when same troops can be used for offensives elsewhere.
I really don't understand why you are so emotional over nothing.

I'm seeing people being alarmed on Twitter because ISWAP has 50 guntrucks. I will even be shocked if they don't have more than that. A group that routinely deploys 20-30 guntrucks when attacking army bases and super camps will now not have more than times 2 or 3 that number.
The only disturbing development is that they can now get enough PMS to fuel up to 50 guntrucks per operation and have enough ammunitions to deploy on at least 50 guntrucks at a time. DHQ needs to do something about the fuel blackmarket around that side. It could be that they just pulled almost all their resources this time for an expansion campaign though which will mean a weakened Gudzamala. DHQ can then decide to launch an offensive in that axis from supercamps 15, 17 and 18. ISWAP will definitely pull back fighters from central Borno to defend Gudzamala which will in turn lead to stalling the expansion campaign.
Also, ISWAP moving to JAS areas southeast of Konduga(if that is where the battle occurred) isn't a big deal, they already have presence west and southwest of that axis. It might increase the frequency of attacks on konduga or might be part of a larger unfolding scenario.

Reducing the frequency of air interdictions in favor of CAS has created a huge loophole ISWAP is taking advantage of. Do the ISR platforms still operate in the northeast like this?

I got the coordinates. The location is about 18km from Bama and 27km from Kondugua.

11°26'31"N 13°32'57"E • 342 m

cutievik:
Listen bro, for them to be attacking themselves means only one thing, they don't give a fvck about the Nigerian Army! You can't have a strong enemy and be concerned about piecemeal (NA).

Not necessarily. JAS has been very weak even before the start of operation turai taka bango. That operation further weakened them. There are several reports from January and February of factions leaving the JAS to either join ISWAP or move to the north west to join bandits. The last series of attacks from JAS has been very mediocre. Just sting and harass in nature and they mostly failed. ISWAP is just the vulture moving in to feast on the carrion left by NA and NAF.

youghs:
There was a hell of a fight here

https://earth.app./NKDBn3

Can you please provide the coordinates for this... The link isn't working and I believe this is the effect of either artillery or airstrikes. There was a report of 40 terrorists killed near Kondugua earlier this week.

SamuelAnyawu:
This information usually moves even within the military and locals. As Humanitarians we usually get this info on movements.

This ISWAP taking over Southern Borno started some months ago. In fact previously ISWAP did not control Dikwa area. It was after pushing JAS out of Dikwa that ISWAP started attacking Dikwa.

Previously Dikwa was very peaceful because JAS barely attack military formations reason most of the Soldiers were really overwhelmed by ISWAP attacks as they have never being used to such attacks on Dikwa community.

If ISWAP fully takes over Southern Borno it’s going to be a real war with Southern Borno soldiers who have not been used to ISWAP attacks. My location was last attacked in 2018. Imagine what would happen if ISWAP starts its pattern of continuous attacks here. In my location you could see some Soldiers strolling inside the town without their AKs.

Tho one of the disadvantages Insurgents will always have in Southern Borno areas is life limited locals support as Southern Borno/Sambisa areas are not Kanuri’s aside Bama and Damboa.

Well let’s watch as things unfolds.

The funny part is that ISWAP hasn't attacked the isolated bases in Northern borno like Mallam Fatori, Cross Kauwa, Baga, Mogunno and Gamboru Ngala for years. These are the areas adjacent to their stronghold but they prefer to attack towns in South and Central Borno. I see it as they sensing that JAS is dying and moving in to get their lands. I pray the greed will eventually choke them when their fighters are spread so thing they wouldn't be able to carry out reasonable attacks.

mekussa:
I don't know if I should be happy they are fighting themselves or sad ISWAP came out on top......................

If its true

Considering that power has changed hands in the ranks of ISWAP, and that there was a lull last week, it is actually very possible that ISWAP is restrategizing.

Mt own question is that how did they move 50 guntrucks from northern Borno to Central brono without being spotted by military intelligence and NAF doing the needful?
It will be sad if after 11 years, the military doesn't have locals in strategic communities providing them with intels and the plans and movement of the terrorists.
The 50 guntrucks could have been going for any of the garrisoned towns, is it after the terrorist have penetrated that the airforce will deploy aircrafts for CAS?
50 guntrucks is a lot for the terrorists and could be the majority of their firepower, imagine hitting such convoy with fuel-air bomb, cluster munitions and rockets? Imagine how much it will weaken the terrorist?
Even the army cannot lose that much guntrucks within a day and remain normal for a long period of time.

Whyem15:
I will estimate more than that. If every air interdiction and CAS kills at least 3 terrorist everyday such operations are carried out and we have such operations 1/4 of the year, that alone is almost 400 terrorists killed by the airforce alone. The frequency of air operations might be much lower than the estimate but we all know the casualties is much higher per air operation.

This is the reason I'm glad Nigeria will be receiving more fixed and rotary wing platforms which will result in increase in frequency of air operations. This will dissuade bandits and terrorist from setting up camps and aggregating in meaningful numbers from fear of being bombarded by the airforce which will in turn lead to significant reduction in their capabilities.
The low operating cost of the super tucanos is another advantage that will eventually increase frequency of air operations.

DHQ should start thinking about getting high resolution military satellites that will reduce the use of ISR aircrafts while covering large areas of land. It will also be very useful for border security.

Sizzorkay:
I'd estimate around 500 bh / Iswap get killed yearly. Just a guess. 21k?

I will estimate more than that. If every air interdiction and CAS kills at least 3 terrorist everyday such operations are carried out and we have such operations 1/4 of the year, that alone is almost 400 terrorists killed by the airforce alone. The frequency of air operations might be much lower than the estimate but we all know the casualties is much higher per air operation.

SamuelAnyawu:
Bro’s I don’t argue on this at all.

Where are we killing the Terrorists? In our ducking FOBs and Supercamps?

We are conducting ambushes? Wulgo, Kirenowa, Logomani?

We are attacking their locations?

I don’t bring emotions into my thinking I’m a Rugged Dude. I’m saying what the real scores ongoing here.

Baba boys Dey go down unnecessarily

It’s well sha. God Bless Nigeria

Let's factor in air interdiction and CAS. One of the videos released by NAF around February (the battle for Marte I think) featured so many dead and wounded terrorists. About 4 gun trucks were totally destroyed, a few others sustained some degree of damages that would have resulted in casualties on the part of the terrorist. Not to even talk about the terrorists who were trying to hide in a trench that were picked up by the helicopter.
Then at the initial stages of Operation TT bango, we saw large numbers of dead terrorists. We also have casualties from artilleries and mortar strikes. The army might not be performing well against the terrorists but the airforce extends the gap by far. The military doesn't release pictures of dead enemies so we might not know the real extent of the casualties on both sides.
When we consider the poor quality of life the terrorists have and numerous infightings and lack of access to reasonable health care which will definitely lead to losing more of their wounded fighters than NA. Then diseases too, early last year some of the terrorists camps were dealing with cholera outbreaks.
When you consider so many other factors, it will be reasonable to conclude that the terrorists lose far more men than the military.

On average, how many men do we lose when the terrorists attacks garrisons? Even by the terrorist's own accounts, it is usually very low.
NA loses more during raining seasons due to increased success chances of ambushes but apart from this, I don't know any other scenario the army loses soldiers more than 10 per attack.
Check Tomasz thread for the terrorists account of the battles. In many of the attacks on army bases, the terrorists claim they "killed and wounded several soldiers" which Tomasz has interpreted as the terrorists not knowing whether they killed anyone.

The president of Chad is in Nigeria, I pray military and security partnership will be deepened with this diplomatic visit.

truthshots3:
So does nigerian army.
Actually it seems most nigerians with enough money eat very badly.
It sounds weird to say, but many poor nigerians have a better diet than most middle class and rich nigerians.

You are also very wrong. Both the rich and the poor eat badly. Nigeria is currently suffering the double burden of malnutrition, some are suffering from undernutrition and some from over nutrition then both from micronutrients deficiency. While the rich eat enough to fill their stomachs, the food they eat have little to no nutrients. Thank God for Dora Akuyili that started the fortification of certain staple foods with some micronutrients.
Anyways, this is a military discussion thread, let's stop derailing.

I really pray this NIMASA can pave the way for the establishment of a coast guard different from the NN.

URGENT ALERT: BOKO HARAM ISWAP LEADER DIRECTS EID-EVE ATTACK TO DIVERT TROOP ATTENTION FROM LEADERSHIP PRAYER LOCATION
The most recent leader of the self-proclaimed Islamic state of West Africa Province (ISWAP) -one Mohammed Dawud and his closest allies have directed various battlefield unit commanders to plan and launch multiple tactical attacks targeting military and security post across strategic locations in Borno on or before the last day of the Muslim Holy Month of Ramadan Eid-el-Fitr.



Sources familiar with the ISWAP jihadist operational tactics say the aim of these multiple planned attacks is to distract the Nigerian military and security services from embarking on ground and aerial offensives that could possibly impede the ISWAP leadership from holding Eid prayers, feast and take propaganda videos in remote locations in the Tumbus aimed at justifying their activities to their covert sponsors.



The leadership had earlier singled out Dikwa for multiple attacks promising to celebrate Sallah in the town. This was confirmed after ground sources reported spotting large movements of ISWAP linked terrorists and weapons around the axis of Abadam, Marte and Duguri in Kukawa LGA.



Same sources report that Muhammad Dawud was spotted on May 11, 2021 in the company of some ISIS leaders embarking on a sinister first tour to join unit elements in the strategic location within the Tumbus in Marte LGA. It is believed that the ISWAP leader was smuggled in the night of May 10th from a location only given as Duguri – passing the night in a makeshift tent in a location given as Sabon Tumbus.



Dawud is said to have been received by one Muhammad Malumma, the Chief Imam, and Chief Judge of ISWAP ; another Ali Kwaya, known to be the Operations Commander of ISWAP; the jihadist own Amirs of Kirta, Wulgo and Sabon Tumbus; Ali Chakkar, the current Governor of the Lake Chad and one Malam Musa Malmat, Chief Tax Collector for ISWAP. Sources say the leader and other senior leaders spent most of the night conducting Tahajjud prayers.



It is suspected that the ISWAP leader plans to embark on a strategic tour of other ISWAP strongholds in locations given as Kusuma, Kirta, Kwalaram and Yarwa Kura – to reassure and congratulate newly appointed unit commanders under his leadership. Thereafter Muhammed Dawud who is accompanied by several gun mounted trucks could be crossing via a location given as Minok and Jakana possible attacking troop locations for clearance purpose.

The ISWAP leader and other senior members are likely to end the tour in a location given as KIRTA where they will conduct their version of Eid-el-Fitri Prayer.

Urgent Action: Extreme Red Alert from All Stakeholders and the local population.



To prevent and effectively repel planned Boko Haram ISWAP attacks within the next 48 hours during this critical period – Nigerian Troops and other sister agencies involved in the ongoing counter-insurgency operations in the North East must remain on VERY high alert and in a state of battlefield preparedness.

Nigerian Airforce Surveillance mission is imperative to identify given locations of Non state actors for COIN precision action against high value targets and associates. Special surveillance attention should be given to locations around Dikwa, Baga, Mafa, Gubio, Marte, Monguno, Damasak and Marte as well as a continued monitoring within Borno state Capital – Maiduguri.
https://eonsintelligence.com/details/david-otto-col-13882973037/urgent-alert-boko-haram-iswap-leader-directs-eid-eve-attack-to-divert-troop-attention-from-leadership-prayer-location-1740333346

SamuelAnyawu:
Looks like a bomb blast

Stay away from crowded places, some suicide bombers might have infiltrated yesterday and waiting to detonate tomorrow during eid prayers.
It is typical for them to release propaganda videos on eid day. And since JAS hasn't recorded any victory this year, they might be desperate to clinch to anything they can. They might even talk about operations in the northwest and other parts of the country in the propaganda video they will release.

We've all discussed the quality of NA recruits recently and I came across something on Twitter that made me do a bit more research on it.
The bulk of NA's fighting force are usually from either depot recruitment or ex boys from NMS. The depot recruitment course is a crash course of about 6 months while the NMS is basically a secondary school that uses four days of the week for academic studies and a day for military training for 6 years(military training will definitely be continuous and everyday in one way or another) throughout the week. It is only normal to expect soldiers from NMS to be far better than those that passed through the depot training.
Now, knowing that the 7 division is basically new and isn't even up to full strength yet, the bulk of their force are those trained in depot within six months. I don't know Sha but I think this is the reason for the poor quality. If NA can work on the training at the depot, things might change.

Lurker4Long:
Isn't going to be rainy season soon in north east Nigeria?
Meaning the military will be constrained?
Looking at the pattern of attacks, I can't shake the horrible thought that ISWAP is trying to encircle Maiduguri, cutting it off from support should they attack it just before the rainy season.

Dem no dey take the war serious no be like Maiduguri. There are lots of high ranking military officers based in Maiduguri that will pull everything within their power to ensure the city doesn't fall. The terrorists should continue with their economic warfare as any other form won't work. Few weeks ago, I was also thinking that could be their plan but they will fail woefully and lose a lot of men.

A truck tripped over in Onitsha today, the truck was filled with bullets. Why on earth are we pretending we have a port or port security?
Ports authority workers, customs officers, police officers in checkpoints from the port till Onitsha only care about the extra money they will get while on duty. The same money they will use to Ransome their family members when abducted. The properties they will be forced to abandon when the crime and violence they facilitated becomes too unbearable for them. Majority of Nigerians are unfortunate people and that is why we will keep on having unfortunate leaders.

GeneralFarouq:
I don't think that a base... I have seen military checkpoints that are better defensible

Ask SamuelAnyawu, he flies over most of them.

Spoke with the daughter of a retired brigadier General, she said her father believes most of those in the military command only care about making money. The man served in Liberia and Sierra Leone, they were faced with worst conditions and they performed far better than today's performance. The were facing criminals living with innocent civilians and they still succeeded. Today's terrorist and bandits have largely isolated themselves from innocent people making it super easy for the military to finish off but then....

Even if no one at army HQ has sense to know those bases are not defensible, what exactly are foreign experts advising them on?

Sizzorkay:
lol. that's a base? hahaha. that country no serious

The military command knows what to do, they just don't care about the lives of the troops deployed. And the troops have also taking the cue and are no longer interested in fighting.

This is how the "bases" being overrun looks like.
What defensive advantage does it provide? And when troops withdraw from these locations we call them cowards.

The gains of 2014\15 offensive and that of 2018 were all lost immediately the offensives stopped. During the offensives, the terrorists either move across the border to neighboring countries or temporarily return to civilian life only to organize themselves back once the offensive has lost its momentum. At some point in time. Gudzamala LGA was recaptured by the terrorists in 2018. Baga was also captured around that period. Unless the army can continue to be on offensive for years(the 7 division lacks the resources for this) or they are able and willing to man every cities, towns and villages, the terrorists will continue doing this.
Supercamp was designed to cut prevent the terrorists from having access to towns and cities for supplies and they've been largely successful and the terrorists haven't been able to expand since then, in fact, NA supercamps 15 and 18 are directly adjacent to their capital and they've never been able to overrun them. The only problem is that the army decided to switch to a full defensive mode. There should be constant aggressive patrols by highly mobile and protected unit from the supercamps to constantly harass the terrorists and keep degrading their capabilities. I have always advocated for the establishment of a mobile strike force to complement the Supercamp strategy. The 72 MSF should have expanded beyond what it was in 2014/15.
If at all they won't re-employ Barlow, they should at least make use of what they learnt from him while he was here.

Majority of the supercamps are also sited in South and Central Borno and Yobe states. There are only 6 in the northern parts of the state leaving many settlements open to attacks.

The recent increase in the frequency of attacks has been attributed to the NAF suspending air interdictions in favor of CAS which has given the terrorists enough space, time and resources to plan, launch and coordinate attacks.

Kaeboy:
I'm of the opinion that the security architecture need to be rejig.

Immigration and customs should form a formidable garrison across borders.

NSCDC should focus mainly on security of schools, and other government infrastructures like hospitals, higher institutions, primary school, government offices, motor parks, railway stations and they should be armed of course, not just wear oversized uniform with fat legs.

FRSC should be trained and armed to form security on all highways 24/7, while all police check points should be removed.

Police should focus on community policing and be stationed in all communities effectively with support from Vigilante groups, communities are lacking security and that's why bandits are doing anyhow. That's traffic control unit of police has no business under police force, they should be under FRSC, while officers under traffic control unit of police should be redrafted to other units where they're needed.

VIO can combine the present duty of FRSC.


So military should not be having divided attention at this time.

This is just treating the symptoms, the illness will just manifest in other forms. The problem lies in governance at all levels. There are huge swathes of lands in Nigeria without any government presence, these are the loopholes non-state actors and criminals are using.
Carve out more states from all these big for nothing states, follow the recommendations of UN on numbers and deployment of reformed law enforcement officers, rejig the judiciary to increase efficiency, build more social infrastructures for people in the rural areas, tackle the flawed wealth distribution and see how things will change.

And reforms in other sectors too.

Unknown gunmen passed through Arondizuogu/Akokwa yesterday.
The gunmen were shooting and taking people's Vehicles.
Intelligence discovered that they later headed to Orlu where the Army joint security operations team engaged them.
Follow us for more details. pic.twitter.com/j4lSoLelEn

— Eons Intelligence (@eonsintelligenc) May 7, 2021

They are already making mistakes. Very soon, people will start hinting security operatives of their movements and other intels.

Meanwhile Damboa was attacked yesterday and the troops in the base were dislodged. The terrorists are attacking poorly defended bases but they might be preparing to attack supercamps.

SamuelAnyawu:
The Biggest mistakes ESN is making is recruiting 90% of their members from Cultists, Armed Robbers and Kidnappers in the Southeast.

They are enjoying the ride for now until the Chicken will come home to roost.

Good morning boss.... Hope you are enjoying your stay in maiduguri? What's the situation of things over there. It has been quiet for a while. Another weekend coming Sha.

ugo4u:
This may sound as a good idea but the reality is that if they create a vacuum ESN will step in to fill the void and in the process they may win more converts, I think it will be counter productive for the security agencies to totally withdraw. What is needed is a bit of fine tuning in their strategy, professionalism shouldn't be compromised for any reason most of the grievances of motorists is the incessant extortion from security agents manning these checkpoints.

They will make mistakes, in fact they are already making mistakes. Seeking recruits from amongst criminals can end in several dangerous ways. It is only a matter of time.

JohnBullMySon:
I won't blame the military anymore for whatever they do in that state. UGM have made their point through violence. Now lie low, they won't. they want to keep attacking soldiers. Now soldiers are out to fight them back. Uzodinma don go give them excess cars and equipment. I haven't seen a governor donate that much before. Now, people get shot for simply misbehaving at checkpoints. You can't report to police because they'll definitely be defended. Armed robbers are all over the place and you can't call police. attacking security agencies sounded like a good revenge, but it was the wrongest move that will yield only tears.

It doesn't sound like a sound move though. The military should be doing everything possible to get the support of the locals in the region. It would have been better if they just avoided everyone both armed and unarmed and allow criminals have free reign until the people starts clamoring for their assistance.

Xbee007:
Can't we pay Russia to do a bombing raid on terror hotspots? They have long-range bombers capable of holding dozens of high yield bombs.

They can codedly carry out their own isr and then do the needful when they are done.

All these piecemeal bombs we're dropping on terrorists have no major impact. They use advance tunnels to store their weapons and secure their personnels in bombing raid.

We can pay mercenaries to go after the bandits/terrorists in the northwest instead. It is a low threat zone and it will give the military breathing space but they said bubu doesn't like mercenaries .
It won't achieve much though, force can't solve a problem that resulted from poor governance but it will at least reduce kidnapping for ransome and killing with impunity.

ocelot2006:
The last pic with the Major in a vest is a clear example of what's wrong with Nigeria. Billions have been released in the name of purchasing equipment, yet the Officer has not simple holster to tuck his service pistol in. I'm no fan of Senator Ndume, but he was absolutely right about one thing: our poorer neighbours have far better kit for the soldiers and security personnel. Our politicians claim to love our troops, but I see no reason why in the 21st century our basic infantry man is still armed by the OBJ006, a Nigerian copy of the Chinese Type 56, one of the 5 WORST copies of the AK47, according to Kalashnikov THEMSELVES! Even if we adopted the design, why still use wooden furniture when there are better composite materials. Plus no optics, nothing.

Abeg I'm tired.

Last week I was really tired and weak, I'm back for now, another thing will happen that will weaken me and the cycle will continue but I'm optimistic that it won't be like this forever.
I thought FG got license for DICON to produce berryl riffles some years ago.

In fact, there is a budget for it, what has happened since 2017

Nigeria’s 2017 federal budget proposal allocated NGN364 million (USD1 million) and NGN390 million respectively to establish production lines for the Beryl M762 and AK-47 assault rifles, the latter possibly being a reference to the OBJ-006, a Kalashnikov derivative unveiled by DICON in 2006.

https://www.africanmilitaryblog.com/2018/03/nigerias-dicon-to-manufacture-beryl-m762-assault-rifles

Meanwhile, the report on BH attacking Bauchi is fake news. The governor shouldn't wait until it starts happening before he acts though.