₦airaland Forum

pumping777:
Before today it was a rumour. Today it was supported by fact.

9 MONTHS REPORT SEPT 31 2007
UNION HOMES PLC, 9 MONTHS RESULTS FOR THE PERIOD ENDED 31-12-2007

GROSS EARNINGS 07 N5.592b, 06 N5.451b

PBT 07 N1.711b, 06 N864m

TAXATION 07 (N291m) 06 (N148m)

PAT 07 N1.420b, 06 N716m

Careful about these guys oh! Last year they posted a more than 750% increase in PAT only to come out with a 5kobo dividend plus a 1 for 4 bonus. Investors vex commot for their side, and of course the stock price came tumbling down like an out-of-control roller coaster on slippery ice _{as if an in-control roller coaster on slippery ice isn't bad enough abi?}

pumping777:
Something strange about Bank PHB. Only 4M+ units were sold today. There must still be a lot of profit takers outstanding tomorrow and the stock will be under serious pressure again.

I still dey sha. I must exercise my right to greed  

Hehehehe   . Ok o, make you dey exercise your right to greed well well. But no dey there too long oh, there are other opportunities to take advantage of. My broker was just telling me that a single individual placed an order for like 30m units of one of the insurance stocks today   . Thankfully, he was able to get me my share before the yeye moneybag individual made the price go sky high  

@all: which company is WAAP and what's making it close on high bid? I just asked my broker that question and he says "don't bother about it, it's a dead company". Why would a dead company be in such high demand . Anyone knows anything about this company? Pls share

wanaj0:
Yes, they are collecting Naira from you but the trasanction is in US$. Let's assume at you paid N1.25m to gt one unit @ $10,000. Let's assume that by some magic, exchange rate now become N100 to $1.00 and you wnat to exit. Excluding capital appreciation, your N1.25m investment is now only N1.0m. That's the currency risk for the investor. With US$ falling against major currencies and Soludo bent on Naira appreciation, this is a posible scenario.

Are you sure the shares of the exit SPV will be quoted in dollars? Might be quoted in naira you know, esp. if they choose to list on the NSE. Afterall it's MTN Nigeria we're talking about abi . . . Unless of course you're talking about those that will want to exit prior to the exit date. But then again, my understanding is that this is a closed end fund, which means that investors will be locked in for the first 3years. Or is Afrinvest doing its own differently?

wanaj0:
Don't get m wrong, MTN is a BUY. Just trying to highlight the things that is not making it as SWEET as I would have loved it to be.

Yes, they are collecting Naira from you but the trasanction is in US$. Let's assume at you paid N1.25m to gt one unit @ $10,000. Let's assume that by some magic, exchange rate now become N100 to $1.00 and you wnat to exit. Excluding capital appreciation, your N1.25m investment is now only N1.0m. That's the currency risk for the investor. With US$ falling against major currencies and Soludo bent on Naira appreciation, this is a posible scenario.

There are other new entrants that will give MTN a run for their money. Yes, VGC acquisition is good but that is not enough to drive away the competition.

Note also that they will start to service the $2bn loan so interest on loan will start to eat into the profit unlike in previous years when the loan portfolio was minimal.

As per competition, a lot depend on strategy and your Unique Selling point. Glo played catch up. Came up with per second billing and that was it. If the otehr competitors can break into the data market then it is MTN and co that will be playing catch up.

I also read of a plan by the new entrants to enter into a lease agreement with existing operators for use of their equipment just to reduce the start-up time. You can however see that with competition, there will be reduction in margins but still good enough for us to issue a cheque for the offer.

I SERIOUSLY doubt that the bolded portion above will happen, at least not within the next 3years, which is my investment horizon.

GLO entered the market at a time when penetration was very low -- i.e. not too many subscribers had signed up with GSM companies. Therefore they could still capture a good chunk of the market by using a simple marketing strategy. Penetration has since increased, and I hear it will increase to about 44% by year end 2008. It will be more difficult for newbies to accomplish the feat that GLO accomplished at the time. Remember, switching costs are quite significant for customers in this business, esp. with those lease agreements they sign . . .

wanaj0:
Dangote, Mubdala and Jim Ovia all got licenses. I know Jim is planning to come out in March or thereabout. Mubdala are also getting set. They all have DEEP pockets. The competition will not be on voice but data. That's where the greatest growth is right now. So, it will not be business as usual. Same way GLO changed the landscape, the new entrants will surely raise the barrier.

True, true. However I'm not worried for MTN. Abi what do you think they're doing with the $2b they raised in Oct. 2007? How many of these other companies you've mentioned have built their own international gateways or laid down their own fibre optic cable networks? They're just starting out so I believe they'll have to play catch up before anything significant begins to happen.

wanaj0:
Naaaaaaaaaa.

Its is those using Naira to pay for the stocks in dollars. If the Naira apprecaites, by the time the conversion of the dollar denominated fund is made to Naira, you may not be making as much gain due to the change in exchange rate. This is from the point of view of investors. For MTN, it is in their benefit since they earn

As per numbers, during Christmas, Glo was allow to do a promo while MTN was not allowed to due to congestion on their network. I am also aware of some deals that Glo entered to with some corporate organisations thus creating another income stream.

Going forward, with competition, margins will reduced compounded by the end of tax holiday.

But wait o, the brokers are collecting naira. Of course the shares are quoted in dollars but subscribers are required to pay in naira. Dividends are also in naira. I'm still not understanding the exchange risk you're talking about. Or are you referring to the exit SPV which may be quoted in USD? Please elaborate more.

Yes, I agree with you that going forward, margins will be reduced, which is why my assumed growth rate over the next 3years was 50%. With MTN's acquisition of VGC, they've made a headway into the corporate market which is obviously a higher margin sector. Can you just even begin to imagine the potential of that market especially with all of these companies doing branch expansion (banks esp.)?? Even tantalizers is talking of deploying technology   Who do you think is going to be carrying all that voice and data, if these companies decide to go with vsat which is amongst the cheapest technology useful for the purpose of interconnecting branches? The possibilities here are huge my brother! We're not even talking of broadband internet connectivity yet . . .

dollyp1cute:
Wendy who is offering the MTN shares/

Is it IBTC or Afriinvest?!

I am interested in picking some of it.

Both. I believe you can contact them for details.

blueband:
http://allafrica.com/stories/200801220718.html

Leadership (Abuja)
22 January 2008
Posted to the web 22 January 2008
Yakeen Nurudeen

Even as the move by the National Communication Commission, NCC to licence more investors to roll out their services in the mobile telecommunication industry, has been seen by many Nigerians as a welcome development towards providing quality service delivery, others see it as an attempt to compound the already troubled sector. Yekeen Nurudeen x-rays the prospects and challenges of this move.

With all its attendant benefits and opportunities, many Nigerians dispassionately admit that one of the unforgettable legacies of the last administration of former President Olusegun Obasanjo was the introduction of the Global System of Mobile Telecommunication, otherwise known as GSM. Since 2001 when operating licence was granted to the then Econet Nigeria Limited, now Celtel wireless, MTN Nigeria Limited, and later to the Globacom, the first and only indigenous mobile telecommunication operator, telecommunication system and business have grown in leaps and bounds.


Even when the duo of Econet and MTN were the major competitors in the business, Nigerians were made to pay through their nose to acquire mobile phones and lines. Yet, they were willing to pay more for the services due to barriers that the arrival of the system was able to surmount. Then, it was an apparent case of day light exploitation of subscribers as alleged by many Nigerians, until the Nigerian Communication Commission, NCC granted Glo Mobile the licence to operate as the third GSM service provider. Although Mtel, a sister company of the moribund Nigerian Telecommunication Company, NITEL came into existence before Glo, it was merely a paper tiger in the business.

In the analysis of some subscribers and telecommunication business experts, the arrival of Glo Mobile broke the ranks of the earlier comers, MTN and Econet, who were apparently taking much from the subscribers in terms of tariffs charged for their services without commensurate quality services and value added. They argued that both MTN and Econet, now Celtel would have milked dry Nigerians who were in desperate need for the new technology were it not for the introduction of per second billing system introduced by the Glomobile. That singular action by the alternative service provider in the guise of Glomobile did not only force the two GSM giants to review their billing systems but were also made to be more alive to their responsibilities to the subscribers.

They have since introduced series of services and offers that have provided subscribers with many alternatives and bonuses for their money. While their services have aided business transactions tremendously and have also made life a lot easier, the Nigerian Communication Commission, NCC, which is the nation's sole regulator of the telecommunication is no doubt confounded by what it described as the poor services delivery of the GSM providers. The NCC, under the leadership of its Executive Vice Chairman/Chief Executive, Mr. Ernest Ndukwe has been at the forefront of campaign to make subscribers get services from GSM service providers that measure up to their money.

The latest effort of the NCC to grant licence to more companies to start GSM operation in the country this year. The move is a further reaction, according to the NCC boss, to the deplorable GSM services the current operators are rendering to the consumers of telephone services. He emphatically said that more operators in the nation's GSM industry will increase competiton and translate to better value and choice for the consumer. "2008 will be a good year for telecoms in Nigeria," he said.

While this is seen as a welcome development at widening the nation's telecoms industry, and making Nigerians whose money are being used by telecoms operators to expand their businesses to have value for such money. It could also mean a double - edged blessings for Nigerians who have always been victims of exploitative tendencies of the GSM service providers and their poor service delivery, argued some experts.

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Those who view this attempt at registering more operators by NCC to roll out their services as a positive move, opine that consumers of telephone services would now have competing alternatives beyond three or four that are presently available to them, and that would invariably compel those who have been in the business earlier to strive to maintain their market dominance by improving on their services and give their subscribers value for their money. "None of them could claim to be indispensable when there are many others that are out with better services and perhaps at cheaper rate." One GSM subscriber who gave his name as Ganiyu Kamorudeen said.

IN the analysis of those who share this view, MTN, Celtel and Glo would be forced to review their billing systems than they have done recently and would equally be intimidated to invest their huge proceeds on acquiring facilities to expand their services towards quality service delivery. They added optimistically that some of these providers may be forced to learn how to give back to the society what they have taken through more open and transparent social responsibility programmes, than are being done at the moment.

There are however fears being expressed in some quarters as to how the NCC would regulate a barrage of more than five GSM operators, given its predicament at the moment to make the three or four current GSM service providers to comply with its directive about improving upon their services. If words of Mr. Ernest Ndukwe are anything to go by concerning how it has been an Herculean task to make GSM operators to be alive to their responsibilities to consumers, many begin to wonder what service improvement and quality delivery can be expected from the newly licenced operators.

Hmmmm, interesting. So NCC is licensing newbies huh? Well, unless these newbies have seriously deep pockets, it would take them a while to catch up. From where I stand though, I don't see any of these newbies posing any real threat to the already existing oldies (MTN, GLO, VMOBILE, etc) over the next 3years. There are significant barriers to entry in this sector, the most of which is the sheer amount of capital commitment required to lay out all that infrastructure. This doesn't even consider the inherent switching costs involved in this business -- how many people would want to change their phone company, especially when there's no number portability?? _{Unless of course the phone company is just terribly terribly bad} . As always, let's wait and see . . . 

eniyanman:
All their competitors face the same currency risk. However, since the naira is appreciating relative to the dollar, this is actually good for MTN Nigeria. If I recall properly, their naira cost base isn't as high as their dollar cost base.

oh ok I see what you're saying. If it's a case of currency risk as regards their cost base, I have no problem there. These guys have proven their ability to keep costs under control. Just check out their profit margins and how consistent they've been at maintaining it despite all of their growth. Amazing! Infact I hear they do all of their procurement centrally (across all MTN operations worldwide) in order to keep costs down. So no big issues there for me at all!

wanaj0:
windywendy, nice write up except that you did not talk about the risks. Currency risk is a major one hear.

well, before we start the analysis paralysis, my broker sent a mail asking whether I am still interested in the MTN offer and I was like, what else should I be interested in? I mean very few stocks are that cheap especially for a TESTED company (unlike CHAMS)

Downside is that MTN is not growing as fast as Glo, they are also loosing market share. Quality of the network is dwindling and people are getting frustrated with their service. Put in another way, GLO is now the prefered choice. Most corporate organisations are actually linking up to GLO. Remember GLO launched balckberry before MTN, started per second billing and is seeing to be more friendly and 'patriotic'. Big organisations are actually entering into partnership with GLO. One of the multinational oil companies operating in Nigeria just did that. So, the management need to really step up.

That said, the offer is a good offer that those with LONG term view should not miss. It may be a quiet ride for the 3 years but after then, there will hardly be space left for new joiners. The dividend yield alone is massive.

Like I said, just wait for the subscriber numbers that will come out in Q2 or Q3 this year and we'll see if GLO is still the fastest. From what I've been reading in the papers and hearing from some other sources, these MTN guys are ramping up seriously. Let's wait and see .

By the way, can you enlighten me more on the currency risk you mentioned? As I understand, dividend payments are in naira. perhaps there's something i'm missing here?

oooookkkkk. Here's the analysis on MTN I promised _{una go pay me oh, 'cos I put in time to do this}  


From my perspective, MTN is a good deal for the following reasons:

1. With regard to the company’s market, there is a lot of growth potential there. Apart from the mobile network coverage which they’ve been growing substantially, they’re also branching out into fixed wireless telecoms. In 2006 they acquired VGC (a PTO), which gives them a foothold in the corporate market. The most exciting part of that acquisition to me is the domestic VSAT and international gateway licenses. With all of the banks and other companies doing their branch expansion, most of them use VSAT to interconnect their branches _{(I’m no techie here, but I did look up wikipedia for some of these stuff).} VSAT is the same technology used to transmit narrowband data for POS transactions such as credit cards, and broadband data for the provision of Satellite Internet access to remote locations, VoIP _{(remember skype??)} or video _{(think video conferencing, etc).} So as more and more banks roll out their credit / debit cards and ATMs and also expand branches, they’ll be making more and more demand on this technology, which I hear is amongst the most efficient. The fact that the company also has international gateway licenses means that they can carry voice and data internationally. So I can imagine that MTN will be top choice for companies demanding such services, esp. if those companies are looking to expand internationally. Also, don’t forget that with the international gateway license, MTN can also carry voice and data for other PTOs (Private Telecom Operators) who hitherto used to depend on NITEL [sub[i]](sorry Transcorp investors), [/i] [/sub] especially if they can do so at a cheaper rate. The VGC acquisition was definitely a very smart move on MTN’s part. The only word I can use to describe the market potential here is HUGE!!!! Mind you, banks are not the only potential users of this technology. Any company that operates in more than one location and needs to have all those locations talking to one another electronically will be needing this technology. SSSWEEEETTTT!!!!
2. The company acquired a license for 3G services sometime in March or April 2007. With this, they can provide voice, video, multimedia, web browsing, video streaming and surveillance and broadband services amongst others. I mean, just thinking about the broadband services alone, and I’m like whao   ! You only need to experience broadband connectivity, and it’ll be a matter of minutes before the dial-up gets thrown out. Potential market would be both individuals and corporates. From the looks of things, MTN has started working intensely on infrastructure to roll out this service. They recently raised a $2billion loan facility _{(which by the way was over 200% subscribed by banks – I mean, who no like beta tin ),} and so far, it looks like they’re the only operator investing sums of that magnitude since the acquisition of the 3G license (heard Glo is doing something, but haven’t seen much in the papers – perhaps they’re doing theirs without as much pump . . ._{sorry Pumping, no intention to use  your name  )}
3. From a valuation perspective, this company is cheap! I mean, who makes EBITDA margins of over 50%?? . This company is a cash cow! They definitely know how to use leverage to maximize returns to shareholders. Return on Equity consistently over 40% (even as high as 84% in ’04) and return on assets consistently over 20%. I’m like   . And yet PAT margins are still growing! The fascinating thing about these guys is that despite all of the growth, they’ve been able to keep costs under control. I LIKE THAT!!!. What this tells me is that most of the future topline growth (which is virtually certain) will find it’s way to the bottomline. Based on my analysis, projected P/E for 2007 is about 11 (projected EPS of N260.6 at a price of $24.56), which is cheap considering the multiples we’re seeing for other companies on the NSE _{(which is what I would consider as alternative investment outlets for now).} Projected P/E for 2011 is less than 3.5 – and this assumes a 50% EPS growth rate for the 3years until 2011. Considering the growth potential this company has, _{(I mean, market penetration for mobile phones is still less than 30% in Nigeria. Subscriber base is projected to increase to 52million by 2011, which is less than half of the country’s population, and I believe MTN will have a substantial if not majority share of that. Add to that the market for their vsat and internet services . . . think BROADBAND!! )} I believe the growth rate I’ve assumed is extremely conservative. A P/E of less than 3.5 is extremely cheap, going by the multiples on major stock exchanges around the world. Granted, we’re not sure on which exchange the shares of the exit SPV will be listed, but with a P/E like that one, you can be sure of significant capital appreciation on any major stockexchange, especially for a company like MTN _{(by the way, did I mention that MTNI is a staple stock in the international portfolio of several of the big portfolio managers here in the US – I’m talking investment management shops like Fidelity and Co.)} operating in a sector like Telecoms, which enjoys huge investor sentiment around the globe – they had to turn down banks wanting to lend them money for crying out loud!!! And did anyone notice that IFC refused to sell out any of its stake to make room for investment by Nigerian investors??. These guys aren’t issuing new shares, which is something they very easily have done to raise money. And I can bet that if they had decided to issue new shares, there would have been massive oversubscription. But NO, they decided to go get a loan instead – kinda like keeping the loot in the family innit? I LIKE THEM!!  

Dividend yield from my calculation is about 13% gross on an annual basis. Considering the yield you would get on a fixed deposit in a good bank, I’ld say this yield isn’t bad. Besides, how many stocks on major exchanges around the world offer such yields?? And when you factor in the potential capital appreciation at the end of the waiting period, hmmmm . . . _{I’ld leave you to complete the statement.}

BOTTOMLINE: This company has a really good (almost essential) product in a market with astronomical growth rates. It also has a solid management team that seems to have its strategy together. It’s an innovative company with very clear foresight. I like their marketing strategy and the partnerships they’re forming. I also like the fact that they’re using debt to significantly enhance returns to equity holders _{look at those debt/EBITDA margins, they’ve dropped from over 71% to about 40% and yet debt has increased}. I especially like the fact that they’re good on the cost management thing. If you’re into long term investing, this is one really good deal.

@Wanaj0, I read the article(s) about GLO surpassing MTN in subscriber numbers. I won’t say I’m too worried by that as there’s no evidence that MTN actually lost market share. Infact, the number of subscribers increased during that period. Plus since then, they’ve acquired a $2billion loan and have started investing heavily in infrastructure to expand their network. I hear they’re moving rapidly into the hinterlands (outside of the major cities like Lagos, PH and Abuja). The good thing is that now they can offer more services with their 3G license -- they can bundle the other services (like multimedia, web browsing and video streaming) with their mobile phone services in targeting new customers in those areas. The expansion is properly timed in my opinion! Let’s wait for numbers that will come out in Q2 of this year and you might be hearing a different story as per subscriber base between MTN and GLO.

@Pumping777: I was on board that PHB flight oh! But I got off yesterday at maximum comfort level to take advantage of some insurance opportunities capable of flying at higher altitudes than that which the fuel left in that PHB plane can allow it go. Make you land the plane safely oh . . .

@Roughcut: size doesn’t matter huh? I’m guessing the saying doesn’t apply to the wallet or pocket or purse size right?

By the way, did anyone catch PRESCO at N14 last week? I saw it and I was like WOW!!!   Kia, I called my broker and the deal was done, sealed and delivered  . At that price, the company had the highest dividend yield on the exchange!

Laters!

@Yodiyokun, LOL!!! okunrin meta in this my petite 5ft 2in frame weighing in at 59kg? I no sabi o. Chei, you too funny sha! i've missed you guys! Will be posting later this week as my schedule might free up some more then.

afamako:
@Wanaj0

I was just thinking of a different way to approach this MTN thing, since MTN Nigeria is responsible for 40% MTN Group's profits and are currently trading at about 420Rand ($59.xx) on the SA exchange, does it make some sense to use 40% of this list price as a guide to MTNN value? This translates to about $24, in which case there isn't a discount. Responses welcome from all.

Quick answer to your question is: NO. MTN Nigeria has far higher growth prospects than MTNI and operates in a very different market. Unlike MTNI which operates in a more mature market. Valuation should therefore be different.

Don't have time to post now but will post my analysis on MTN Nigeria tomorrow or thereabout. Needless to say, it's a very very solid offer at $24.56 (which is the offer price, and also the price at which IBTC is offering it). In my opinion, 3 years is worth the wait for this.

@Wanaj0, thanks. I'll be taking a third look . Won't really want to compare MTN to GLO though . . .

@aksance, sorry I was looking at the wrong thing. The numbers weren't projections. Just got word from my broker that the original PP memo from MTN didn't include projections.


@dollyp1cute: sorry, i don't have the MTN prospectus. I think the brokers have it and are not releasing it -- some nonsense about it being in hard copy _{like they don't have scanners}. I'll be discussing with mine over the phone though.

@everyone who's directed one comment/question or the other at me, abeg make una bear with me as my schedule dey too tight these days. I'll respond in time.

@Wanaj0, I'm just taking a second look at this MTN deal. The deal dey sweet oh, i'm seriously liking it! Going by last year's dividend alone, the dividend yield is close to 10% -- that's not bad at all. I think it's a SOLID SOLID long term buy. Considering the company's prospects, can you just imagine what the capital appreciation would be even in the next 1yr talkless of 3? Abi didn't they just get the 3G license in March 07? Plus there's going to be an exit mechanism, which I believe will be very liquid. What's your problem with the offer? abeg make we discuss before I commit. Thanks.

@all: Just a quick note -- from FCMB's prospectus, they should be listing the additional shares from the offer next week. So make your decisions.

On the MTN PP, I just got a document from one of the issuing houses inviting me to participate in a fund that will be invested in the MTN PP. Does anyone know how I can get my hands on the original PP document? The projections and historical results are looking really good.

faketan:
Please Pumping, windywendy

What are the fundamentals you guys keep mentioning. I just want flow with your posts.

Thanks

quarterly results plus growth rates in both turnover and PAT (for both the annuals and quarterlies), P/E ratios. A lot of my analysis involves assumptions based on what the company's peers are doing, what the company has historically done, what's happening in the industry, and on news I get from both my own research, rumors and discussions with my brokers etc.

Gotta run now. Wonderful week everyone!

Mr. Risky:
I would prefer you first ask yourself if you can stand Japaul if the bonus "news" turns out to be just what it is "rumour". Can you stand when others bought at N3.95, and you are buying at N9 plus.  You may have to wait for the next one or more years if the the rumour turns out to be RUMOUR! That is the risk. At its current price, it will take half a century to recoup one's investment there!  I wish Pumping or Wendy will pump more action into this my theory or blow the Wind of risk away from it

Hehehehe  . Sorry, but there's no amount of Wind that can blow the risk away !! It's highly risky, and your theory is very correct. I'm only in it because I know the market will react like crazy to any bonus news. As it were, I've already pocketed more than 50% in returns and will even exit at anytime if I see another stock with a higher upside potential. I believe the stock can do another 30 or so percent based on the feelers I'm getting. Risky, but with the predictability and craziness of the market, the odds of winning are in my favor _{at least until this strategy stops working . . .}    Can you imagine I bought vitafoam in the last week of december at 8.55 and exited last monday at 11.06? You do the math. That's not a company i'ld invest in for the long haul but the craziness of the market will drive down the price one time and then ramp it up again in anticipation of results, and then ramp it down again for whatever reason. It's senseless but profitable _{call it profitably senseless if you like, or senselessly profitable} 

pumping777:
I think this is almost certain. Remember the PO was at N3.95 and new shares don't qualify for dividends or bonus?? The PO discount will end up being artificial. Another First Bank.

Ok cool. I'm still in that one from the last rumor I heard from my brokers. I traded some to do the Chams PP but still have more than half left 'cos of the bonus rumor I heard. Results should be released sometime in April or March

top_kin:
I am sooooooooo happy with the Japaul i bought    Omo, i don hama!!!     

Good for you! I hear rumors of a bonus issue, not sure how true this is though

tonyjon:
Pumping 777 and wendy,

What is your take on WAPCO now that the banned on imported cements has been lifted by the Govt.

Peace.

In all honesty, I don't know much about wapco. But from an interview with Dangote that I read in the papers sometime last year, he says it's cheaper to import cement than to produce it locally. He was even saying that cement companies that produce locally would suffer if the government doesn't enforce the ban on cement. I'm not too sure of the ramifications of this whole new deal concerning cement importation. I'm thinking perhaps the authorities would place a quota on the quantities imported so that it's just enough to meet the shortfall they talked about. If that's the case, then perhaps the local producers might not hurt that badly, in which case there may yet be hope. But I guess the more realistic scenario would be to assume that the importers would undercut local producers' price in order to sale more volumes and that any quota placed on imports wouldn't last long. So I'ld say if you don't already have wapco, wait and see how this turns out. Again this is based on what I know now o, and things may change rapidly if anything changes.

pumping777:
Ha. This is how we know those that went to Harvard.
High volatility and serious volume. I now have a list. Now I have to sift for low nominal price and reasonable fundamentals. Chei. I feel like someone playing the slot machines.

It's not personal tax refund that is holding yodiyokun. Afterall I never do my own. I have sent appeal to IRS to let me make my returns to Naija tax office. Awaiting their response.

I believe this is related to one of her functions at work.

Yes o, it's like playing the slot machines, the exception being that with this one the odds of winning are more in your favor Also, while compiling your list, check out for deal numbers (or number of trades) and try to stay away from those with small numbers _{getting stuck in a fundamentally unsound company may not be too funny . . .}

pumping777:
I beg, I am looking from some Unilag (or Harvard) professor to explain the behaviour of this NSE.
Fo2 - I heard that the meeting between you and Madam Ndidi delayed start of trading today. Make you take your time o.

And while you're at it, also look for those stocks with significant price volatility and serious volumes to trade in that should generate plenti plenti cash for your portfolio

pumping777:
@yodiyokun - Where are you now Na USA go first do Tax returns They do it in Nigeria too now and all our Accountants and Auditors are still in the house. I go vex for IRS o.

But wait o, aren't tax returns due in April? Why would Yodi be doing it now -- unless of course she get chunky chunky tax refund

@Yodiyokun, remember to channel some of those refunds my way oh, I'll be very happy to collect . . .

pumping777:
@windywendy
I beg, Let us wait for IkejaHotel to drop for N5.50 before we enter ke. It WAS on its way Very slow but steady.

You're ON YOUR OWN o! windywendy doesn't usually wait too long when she spots a good one 

easimoni:
@ Wendy,
Ikeja Hotels looks cheap at the current price. 2 things that bother me:the 9 months for 2006 was higher than the FY for 2006. Looks like they "lost" money in the last 3 months of 2006 (I thought the last 3 months was when Hotels made most of their money). Also, the PAT growth rate is in the teens. The 06 prospectus is still on the website if you wish to read it.

http://www.ikejahotel.com/

Ok thanks, I'll look that up.

ngegy:
@windywendy

hope you`re doing fine, i was trying to trace back your posts with grabdaloot about eterna oil but could find the start. so please what the news that you want him to confirm? please share

Oh the start was when grabdaloot said that the company was doing some restructuring and had partnered with a downstream oil giant to refurbish fillin stations or something like that. I thought that the news was old and had been factored into the market price. But then again, I just asked him to reconfirm if it was something new and he agreed to do so. That's where we left the gist

crazyT:
Wanaj0, Fatherof2, pumping, Wendy, and other guru’s and sub-guru



I have about 600K to invest this week and these are the stocks I am planning to go for tomorrow, please what is your take on this my options?

NEM
UNIC
FCMB
AG Leventis
C& I Leasing

Sorry, I'm just responding to this. It's tough to follow up on this thread these days. I suppose you must have got good advice from the other members of the house by now. My personal preference on that list, based on just doing a 1 or 2 week trade, would be unic.

easimoni:
I AM a colts fan (really a Tony Dungy fan) but, unlike most sports fans, I'm always quick to congratulate a winner. And that's the best team in any sport I've ever seen.

Read the John Paulson article. At least someone was smart about the whole subprime thing. I've got my own subprime stories (the wife almost bought a 2nd home as an investment a couple of years ago, had to pull the "husband" card and veto the purchase, Thank God! Empty lots left, right and center). My current estate is also half-empty. Kinda has me worried about having to sell when it's time to move back to naija. Shame.

Anyway, back to the lecture at hand!

Ah, you're a good sportsman then. Cool. But just so you know, we won't be inviting any colts fans to the party when we're celebrating our superbowl victory   _{so you might want to change camps now before the fan club gets closed to new fans}  

Pulled the husband card huh?? Funny! Anyway thank God for insightful husbands. God only knows how many crashes I would have made if my dear hubby hadn't pulled that card on occassion   But then again, I probably would have crashed my way out of whatever crashes I might have gotten into! _{kai, i need to slow down sometimes sha . . .}

By the way, what's your take on Ikeja  hotels? I know they projected a 10kobo dividend for this year, but looks like they're going to exceed their PAT projections for this year. The stock is relatively undervalued and I'm thinking of buying

@Aktopgun, I can see a lot of prayers going out for the baby. Is anything the matter? Is he alright? I suppose you're christian right? If so do lay hands on him and pray in the holy ghost. The bible says God is our keeper, and if you look up the original Hebrew word translated "keeper" you'ld see that it means: preserver, maintainer, protector, amongst other things. So He keeps us in totality -- spirit, soul and body. And becasue we're believers, our kids are sanctified and therefore entitled to the same "keeping" that we are entitled to as a result of Jesus' sacrifice. So it's the kid's right too. Lay a hold on it and keep speaking God's word over him. It's well.