₦airaland Forum

yodiyokun:
There are so many offers and opportunities out there, and you only have so much money.

Some offers just have to be "back benchers", because of opportunity cost.

Anyone know whats up with FSDH daily report, I have not received it in the last 2 days - where else can I get a downloadable format of the daily price list.

I need to apply it to Pumpings Spreadsheet.

@Easimoni, any luck with applying the macro on @Wanaj0's spreadsheet.

@Fatherof2 are you watching UBA,

EMMAACHILE:
Those who participated in international breweries's offer must have realised about 50% appreciation on their investment

EMMAACHILE:
Wonder why some people are castigating International Breweries.
With the German Brewery Giant, one of Europe's largest taking 60% of the company shares and its offer, International Breweries is definitely a good long term buy.
I know 2 big stockbroking firms that bought above 100 million units of this offer and I myself participated massively in this offer.
We will at the end of the next year (2008) God willingly, know whether na money miss road and na gold mine the shareholders strike.

RoughCut:
hmnnnnn, there is irrational exuberance like i said because a lot of peeps are not really buying the good stocks they are throwing money at the good, the bad and the ugly i mean there is indiscriminate buying because some think all you have to do is invest in the NSE and by the time folks realise they have probably not made wisest of investment that is when there will be a scramble to dump these over-priced and over-bloated stocks

Like you said the key is to pick the few good men, i meant the few good stocks

pinokio:
hmmmm

apart from "hmmmm" of course 

wanaj0:
I get your gist. Just not that enamoured with it.

PO's normally come out at PE's of <10. Because of the bullish environment, we are having PE's at outrageous PE's!!!

Right now, keeping my money under the pillow is now an option. It is not a MUST to BUY. Not sure the market can sustain the ridiculous PE's for long. 70.00 stock paying less than 1.00 dividend? Not sustainable!

model1780:
I get what u're sayin, would make more sense making the assumption that u bought @ d highest in Nov. & sold @ d lowest in march, i'll use those figures now to c if it'll still ve a reasonable return historically.

wanaj0:
On Bagco, I consider it expensive.

Windy's analysis was spot on.

However, a FORWARD PE of 23 for end year 2008 for the packaging sector is expensive!!!!!!!!!!! Except I am not reading right, the PE in the prospectus was for FY 2008!!! Flour Mills itself has a forward PE of about 15.00. Would rather buy Flour Mills than BAGCo. That is not to say that you will not amke money by buying the IPO.

Actually, BAGCo has the highest margin in Flour Mills operation. Solid company but I consider the offer expensive. . .

damoche07:
Think he used past performances in that quarter to project.seems they made less profit in Q4 for the last two years.Think the pattern might not be sustained?

pumping777:
AG Leventis (Last Fiscal Year)

The turnover of the company increased by 1.43%, from N7 billion to N7.1 billion in 2006. profit after tax also increased from N343 million to N395 million in 2006, an increase of 14.9%. The full year EPS stood at N0.18, while a dividend of N0.10 was approved. The company is likely to begin manufacturing of generators here in Nigeria, and this will boost its profitability in the nearest future. It would interest you to know that Nigeria is the largest importer of generators in the world at present.The register closure date ids May 14, 2007.

So in Q-4, turnover grew from 5.08B to 7.1B but PAT only grew from 0.36B to 4B. Most of the PAT was reported in Q-3 in 2006 and also in 2007, but Q-4 2006 recorded a PAT that is only about 25% of the PAT in Q-3 2006.

To summarize, I think one can enter this short term because this growth may not be sustained in Q-4.

easimoni:
My bad. It was aktopgun that quoted the proshare article.

https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-31554.6592.html#msg1741358

Pennywise:
@all
This thread has no doubt become the single most important resource on the NSE. My brother called me today asking precisely the same questions about the NSE that have been addressed on this forum. Of course all I did was send him the link.Great forum greater people.

Perhaps the single most important contribution I have seen yet is from fatherof2. It is the concept of picking specific stocks on monday and selling on thursday or friday to make 25%. This concept that I will call the Fatherof2 factor of the NSE, immediately obnoxious, detestable and entirely against the idea of a stock exchange was not devised but revealed to all by our contributor. There is no doubt that a lot of people have made billions from the system using this ingenious tactic. We hope regulators are observing this trend (if they are not part of this awoof strategy). . .

Mr. Cee:
@WINDYWENDY,

PLEASE WHICH FIRM IS YOUR STOCK BROKER ?

easimoni:
My guy, the answer still seems to be no. I decided to build my own (after all, they are nothing but glorified designer spreadsheets) but oga Wanaj0 unleashed a killer amount of data and I've been too buy drooling to start work on the technical aspect of my spreadsheet. It looks like we (nairalanders) have no choice but to build ours since no broker/analyst/website/programmer has released a useful working version. I'll prob have mine done in a week.

Wendy was quoting a proshare article. It was also CSMAs. Not much required to calculate those.

aktopgun:
@windywendy

thats exactly what i mean ma'am.
NAMPAK are their main competitors in the packaging industry and will have the muscle of their larger company to push Bagco all the way. NAMPAK are doing well in that area already and will look to consolidate of course as thats one of the few areas they've managed to do well in, but as brother jehoshaphat pointed out, bagco have other ways of reducing operational costs and have a ready made client in flourmills.

aktopgun:
@WINDYWENDY
plus the fact that their main competitor NAMPAK is not doing at all greaat as far as i can see from their results

my worry is that if NAMPAK can't get business to generate profit, can bagco?

presumably there is a market out there but if probably the largest company in that sector can only report a 70% loss in profit i just wonder if their market isn't shrinking or at best not properly identified (less likely option)

what say u?

no_shaking:
Not quite so! The burden to be relieved _post-IPO would just be marginal! Remember total interest expenses (pre-IPO) only account for about 10% of its turnover and with the company's intent of using 90% of its PO to clear its existing debt, earnings growth would not be substantial  _{re.opportunity cost}, and besides strategically, nothing much is changing overtime - its strategic intents, business model; Flour Mill still major customer etc.

At best, Bagco is just a CAUTIOUS BUY not based on fundamentals, but on sentiments surrounding company's first public listing on the floor and the subsequent price rally etc. Hey, my opinion though!

Temmie10:
@windywendy
Dun move the mkt too much with this stash of cash o
Personally i really like the phb po. i think its december's winner in terms of pos/pps.
BUt i'd appreciate if you helped scrutinize it

youngdoc:
NAIRALANDERS

If Dangote Flour is going to be oversubscribed then this is confirmation to me that market sentiment could greatly overwhelm fundamentals when applied wisely. In the case of DF, all the pundits and gurus denigrated the stock, too expensive, too this, too that. Dont forget that this is NSE and this is Dangote! After DSR, and with the market share he holds ( with Dangote Flour, who hasnt bought a sack or have a family member use one) I made a gamble to see how much market sentiments would factor into appreciation and it seems like i learned something.
Fingers crossed to see the rest unfold. My stethoscope picks up a growing heartbeat in DF,

Windywendy welcome back!

Will Bagco go the way of DF due to market sentiment? what sayeth thou?
I join to await your analysis with a confocal microscope.!

RoughCut:
Yeah got in at the right time on that one even if i didnt get in on the PP i would have jumped in on the secondary market i mean those guys enjoy a virtual monopoly. If i remember correctly what i read in the PP prospectus their business model is quite unique even though there are other medical dignostics outfits but they look like a monopoly when you drill down to the details of what they are offering so i should clean up on that one!

jehosaphat:
@ Windywendy

Awaiting your analysis on Bagco. Could you do PHB too? 
Thanks a bunch.


Better to have too much than too little.

Mr. Risky:
Femi,

Thank you very much for this news.  Unfortuntely,with the system I now use, I hardly, if ever receive external mail, and so have lost out on the CSL daily market report.  Could you do me a favour please.  Could you be so kind to post the daily market reports from especially CSL beginning from TODAY, it shows the stocks on BID and those on OFFER.  The information helps me a lot, and it also posts COMPANY RESULTS as they are released at the NSE.

PLEASE CONSIDER THIS A SPECIAL REQUEST.

Before I make another appeal LET ME SPECIALLY WELCOME BACK WINDY WENDY, you are especially honoured and respected.  You were missed.  You proved true to your goodself with your recommendation of LEVENTIS.

Now to the other Gentle men and Women,

Could we shift a little further away from ourselves?

Now that Wendy is back and WanajO also back from the UK and Roughcut not currently flying or about to catch a flight, and easimoni too back from his Sabbatical, could we make some stock selections?  What I mean is that could they help pick some stocks for short term (say 6 - 12months  time frame), Medium term (1 - 2years time frame) and others for long term.  And they will help, if they add a brief note against each stock as to the factors influencing their decision.  And also suggested entry price. CAVEAT though is ever there.  As someone said, afterall the money belongs to whoever is using the material for his decision.   That will sure help quench the thirst for some questions that may be lurking in the minds of many lurkers here on the forum.  We will ever remain grateful.

This is important because, in a matter of hours December is here and the beginning of 1st quarter 2008 is just a few weeks away.  I see the Bull going mental come 2008, just my idle prediction though.  I personally do not see the market dropping too low than we are experiencing right now.

REGARDS to you all.  Let's get the thread FOCUSED, we all stand to benefit.

samstone4:
@Roughcut, Nairalanders,

I did not buy Dangote Flour because like many others thought it was overrated.
Hear that those who applied for 100,000 will only get 12,000 units!

Should be good for speculators to quickly get in and out. . .
Samstone4

RoughCut:
Ah! welcome back from your sabbatical leave i hope you are back with us full-time_{i know you have another very important full-time commitment}and talking about full-time commitments how's the little madam? hope i got it right  and all the best

i remember we said something about Dangote Flour IPO being expensive because of the PE ratio we arrived  at then and it was agreed it should not have been more than N10 but if the chinese whispers i'm hearing are true because there's a massive massive over-subscription then i think the price when the positions are resolved  will beat the all-comers record on the NSE so the N15 IPO will look like peanuts in comparison but i think it will probably shadow Dangote sugar's price trajectory

Another case of market inefficiency!

FatherOF2:
[quote author=MyPeace link=topic=31554.msg1735102#msg1735102 date=1196433434

This is why i'm getting PHB on the floor at N25.
1. They just announced a bonus of 1 for 4.
2. 6 months result expected at least in January 08'
2. The stock enjoys goodwill post TS.
3. Fair value for me is N32-N33 (Bail out point 25% plus)post TS.
4. Remember GTB (when they start issueing the bonus) stock becomes diluted and some will cash in(Meanwhile you've bailed out) price falls
   and you jump in again after it settles.
5. Know the past deep to predict the future.

.

easimoni:
As my peeps say; "when you are big, you are BIG"

Naijadr:
I agree, had me converting that to $$ like shuoooo! Windywendy I want to be like u when I grow up

***post modified to refocus attention to the "koko" of what I'm trying to pass across*** 

wanaj0:
Windywendy, long time no hear!!!!!!!

The transfer pricing you talked about with Dangote Flour is about to happen now with BAGCO. So what saith thou??

at least until it stops working

think of it as taking money from both ends  .