₦airaland Forum

frankiriri:
I don't think Bayelsa is involved in Oceanic. Its only Delta state govt that I know of.
In Naija govt patronage is never really a hindrance as long as it is within certain limits. The worst is that a new Goverment would move the funds deposited with them. But the CBN is already taking measures to reduce the risk of this happening in the system. So I don't find that a problem with Oceanic. No state Government has up to 10% of its stock so it does not fall under the CBN classification of banks that govts have to divest from.

Sorry, I meant to say Delta state govt. I'm not aware that the Delta state govt has reduced its deposits in oceanic -- the last time I checked, no such thing had happened. I thought the FG told other govts to move their deposits from banks to the CBN??

So my question is what happens to oceanic's turnover if these funds are moved out? And what's the driver behind the N55 prediction in the next 5 months?

I'm not saying there's a problem with oceanic, I just personally don't see the share price going to N55 in the next 5months. I'ld say based on P/E, a reasonable target would be N30 - N32. But then there might be some info i might be missing out on. So if anyone knows anything, I'ld be happy to know it too.

Tmoni:
i just recieved this from my broker today

Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc released its three months interim results for period ended March 31, 2007. The company grew its turnover by 1% and Profit after Tax by 40% when compared with the prior period. The company has also declared an interim dividend of N0.40 per share. Closure of register will be on April 23, 2007. Full details of the released result are in the attached report.

DANGOTE SUGAR REFINERY PLC
3 MONTHS PERIOD ENDED MARCH 31, 2007
2007 2006
N'b N'b

Turnover 20.04 19.88 1%

PBT 7.16 3.82 87%
TAX (1.79) -
PAT & MI 5.37 3.82 40%

Interim Dividend Proposed 40k
Closure Date 23-Apr-07


looks like our investment is getting close to the N70 axis,
i feel so bad for the money that was returned to me but overall happines
e go better for dangote

I'm actually worried about the fact that they were able to increase their top-line by just 1%. I would have expected higher growth considering that they're virtually a monopoly. But anyway, I hear they're planning to begin exports next year so that should be good. I expect they should be able to double EPS within the next 1 year at least, considering the 40% growth in PAT. So perhaps we should be looking at a cummulative dividend of somewhere in the range of N2 - N2.5. Anyone have any takers? Where do you see the share price one year from now? I have a good feeling this stock will be the next nestle . . .

oshkosh:
I believe very strongly that Zenith and First bank would hit N55 within the next 5 months (Zenith sooner).  If your outlook is end of year (December), then I'll add UBA and Oceanic to that list.

@ Oshkosh, can you let us know why you think Oceanic should be on that list? I'm not too keen on their biz strategy plus the fact that the Bayelsa govt is heavily involved in the bank and will have to divest due to the recent CBN pronouncement and also the fact that they're heavily dependent on government business. Is there something else you know that makes you think the share price will rise to N55 within the next 5months? Pls let us know.

Even more worrisome are the reasons that BT cited for pulling out:

unavailability of working capital needed to turn around NITEL and MTel, and the lack of adherence to corporate governance principles by the companies' management and their boards

These are serious issues.

IPO undersubscribed by 70%

Now, why am I not surprised Obviously not a lot of people were fooled by all that hype . . .

frankiriri:
You can hold the same stock for short term and long term purpose.
To use this I adopt a principle called arbitraging. It involves taking advantage of a differences in the price of a security in two different markets.
I used this principle recently and reaped a handsome reward.
I had intercontinental shares which I bought at the 2004 PO. When they came out with their 2006 offer the price on the floor was N16.13 while the PO price was N13.5 So I placed my shares on the market and simultaneusly bought an equivalent number of units at the primary market locking in a handsome profit. At the end of the day the shares were sold for N16.94 resulting in a profit of over N3.44 per unit on that transaction alone. When my dividends and bonus are taken into considertion , the figure goes higher.

Frank, can you expain further how this arbitrage thing works? becos from my experience, it is often difficult to sell shares of a company on the floor once the company is doing a public offer, esp. since most offers are at a discounted price.

Also, ever heard of margin trading? I'm about venturing into that and was wondering if I could hear from someone who's done it or is doing it currently.

I'm sick and tired of reading posts that imply that if women don't look gorgeous after marriage, then the husband will turn to the secretary or the next gorgeous woman he sees. Not surprisingly, most of such posts are from the unmarried. Marriage is not as finicky as that my dears, and any man or woman who is prepared to cheat on their spouse on the grounds of a change in the spouse's appearance is simply spineless and insincere. What would happen if you were Dana Reeve, whose hunky man-of-men husband suddenly got struck with paralysis and had to be in a wheel chair the rest of his life? Or what would happen if you were that man whose wife got caught in a fire that gutted a good part of her once-very-beautiful skin? Would you immediately turn to another good looking person? Is that why you got married in the first place?

Whether anyone likes to admit it or not, both men and women are visually stimulated, and we all are capable of appreciating beauty in another. But that is not all that counts when it comes to marriage. At some point that hunk of a husband is going to go bald or develop grey hair or a pot belly or get thicker in embarrassing places, and that woman will not be as shapely as she once used to be. If that causes you to begin to look to another, then there isn't much to be said about your marriage or your understanding of what marriage is all about.

And for heavens sake, if you're thinking of having a happy marriage, by all means put all forms of childish and unwarranted threats (such as, "if you don't look drop dead gorgeous, I'll start looking at my secretary" or "if you don't cater to my financial needs, I'll start looking at the next rich hunk" out of your marriage. This is especially true if you want a secure and productive environment in your home. There's more to life and people than just good looks and other physical or financial attributes!

And always remember, NO ONE is indispensable -- that spouse you're threatening CAN live without you, so you might as well be a blessing to him/her _{and not a threatening little brat}.

Irrespective of the amount involved, I think it is very disrespectful and in very bad taste for anyone to take money from anyone else without telling them, either before or after. I would consider it very disturbing if my hubby takes money from my handbag and then keeps numb about it like nothing happened. That's deception!! . I can't imagine myself doing the same wrt him either -- that's just so low. What would that achieve, other than create an uneasy silence and tension?? There's nothing wrong with asking him before hand or letting him know after the fact (and this is only if it was absolutely impossible to let him know before the fact.)

@ Poster: If it really bothers you, I suggest you let your wife know and you both work out a way for this not to happen again. Find out the reasoning behind her behavior (could it be that she's afraid of asking or has become wary of the types of responses she gets each time she asks that she now thinks it's better to just take it without going through all of the stress involved with asking?) and do all you can to nip that undesirable attitude in the bud. And you might also want to consider always leaving her with well enough money to take care of her needs and those of the family, so that she doesn't find it necessary to go pick-pocketing (not that the attitude is justified at all, but sometimes people act out that way out of lack). Just my 2 cents.

Interesting topic.

It's amazing to see the men blaming the breakups on the women. Donzmen and co, isn't the man supposed to be the head of the home In my book, that means he's primarily responsible for whatever happens to it.

But just my one-liner on this issue: not many women will leave a really good man who treats her with love, gentle consideration and respect.

frankiriri:
With the prospects for oversubcription of its IPO . . .

Don't be too sure about transcorp's shares being over-subscribed. See below:

Transnational Corporation of Nigeria Plc. Initial Public Offering (IPO) Extended to Thursday, February 15, 2007.


Thank you for your interest in the TransCorp initial public offering.

Please be informed that TransCorp has received approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the extension of the float till Thursday, February 15, 2007. Previously, the offer was scheduled to close on Wednesday, January 31, 2007.

To learn more about the initial public offering, please visit www.transcorpnigeria.com/ipo . All links on the IPO page have been activated and visitors may read or download all content. The Multimedia Road Show Presentation may now be viewed.

If you have any questions related to investing in the IPO, please contact me. However, clarification or support for investment decisions can only be given by an accountant, lawyer, investment advisor or other trusted counselor. TransCorp does not give investment advice.

Once again, thank you for your sustained interest in becoming a shareholder of Transnational Corporation of Nigeria Plc.

This smacks of a lack of sufficient interest in the IPO, if you ask me.

Minimum deposit they accept is N1million.

Charges are as follows:
Purchases
 
S/N  Charge  Description 
1  Broker's Commission  See breakdown below 
2  SEC fee  1% of consideration 
3  Stamp duty  0.075% of consideration 
4  Value Added Tax (VAT)  5% of broker's commission 
5  CSCS  0.1% of consideration 

Sale
 
S/N  Charge  Description 
1  Broker's Commission  See breakdown below 
2  NSE fee  0.65% of consideration 
3  CSCS fee  0.45% of consideration 
4  Stamp duty  0.075% of consideration 
5  Value Added Tax (VAT)  5% of broker's commission 

Consideration refers to the price of the shares purchased, i.e. unit price times the quantity of shares purchased. Furthermore, broker's commission is graduated as follows:

Minimum Commission - N50
First N250,000 - 2.75% of consideration.
Next N250,000 - 2.50% of consideration.
Next N500,000 - 2.25% of consideration.
Next N2,000,000 - 2.00% of consideration.
Next N2,000,000 - 1.5% of consideration.
N5,000,000 and above - 1.00% of consideration.

I actually took this off their website (http://counterstrust.com/faqs.asp) , but it's the same like they charge. In addition, there's the recently introduced 5% VAT on the NSE and CSCS fee when one makes a sale -- that one I think was instituted by the NSE.

In addition to all of the above fees, they also collect like N1k for share certificate verification (I've never had to pay that, but I think they just introduced it because I got an email to that effect like 2-3days ago). I can also check my share verification status online and view my CSCS statement online as well. For someone who's based outside the country, this service is invaluable as I don't have to be making several phone calls to follow up on stuff.

Yep, Frank is absolutely right. In addition, with the big ones, you can check your account online, and some like mine (counterstrust) send daily market updates and analyses and other weekly reports that can help you to analyze different stocks. Also, when there is news on any of the stocks that I own, they send me an email if they think the news will impact my decision to hold or sell. Also, whenever I do have excess funds, they invest it at their call rate. The rate is not very much (about 6 - 8%), but it's much better than leaving it idle, and is available to me immediately I spot an investment opportunity and decide to buy.

If you ask me, that's definitely service worth paying for.

Of course there would be a lot of debate -- and that's just one more reason to avoid. If it were a sound investment, that would be clear and there would be no hot arguments about it _{take dangote sugar for instance}. Like one of the world's greatest investors _buffet would say, if you're having a hard time convincing yourself about the viability of an investment decision, avoid it.

[quote author=Iyke-D link=topic=34303.msg816135#msg816135 date=1168716703]@windywendy,

Go on with your bad self. If you find the preceding sentence offensive, here is
my apology as well.


@adconline

I am going to ignore your crap from now on as you have just revealed your total
ignorance.[/quote]Hmmmm, very sad indeed _{***shakes head***}

Anyway, anyone else who's interested, let's continue the discussion. Does anyone have any other NSE stock ideas?

@ Iyke-

I wasn't drawing attention to my credentials, infact no where did I talk about or make reference to myself or my credentials. I was simply stating the fact that some wharton grads went to work for an oil coy in nigeria, didn't do well there and had to return. I referred to them as classmates, because that's what they are, and I know them personally. All this was in a bid to elaborate on my point that having a US education means nothing without experience. You didn't have to attack me, it (your attack) just simply gave me the impression that you do have a complex, which I don't believe is the case. So please don't tell me that you didn't think my initial wharton reference was called for.

Take an objective look again at the excerpt from my earlier post on the subject and read carefully this time

windywendy:
Forget all that US-education thing oh, it's experience that counts for real. Some of my classmates from wharton resigned from Mckinsey and went to work for O&O when that company newly took over Oando (formerly Unipetrol). They all returned to the states very shortly after 'because they realized that working in the oil and gas sector in nigeria is totally different from what they thought it was and had little or nothing to do with their US education.

By the way your apology is accepted. Please don't let that type of unnecessary personal swipe re-occur. Thanks.

[quote author=Iyke-D link=topic=34303.msg815032#msg815032 date=1168659231]Stupid
=====
I may have bungled what you said but there is no where in my write up that I suggested that you were stupid.
My take still on your earlier write up was that [b]you will invest some money anyway [/b]in NITEL - but the amount
of "up to N5m" may depend on the pricing. So if its priced at N1, you may max out, but if it was priced at N10, you
may draw that down to N1m. Anyway, when it gets to the point of parsing words, I start looking for the exit door.[/quote]Hey Iyke-D, let's just agree that you got me wrong there OK?. At least I've explained what I meant _{which is NOT what you've said again in your above quote}, so let's leave it at that. And by the way, I wasn't trying to say that you suggested that I'm stupid, I was just trying to say that I would consider both growth prospects and price before making any investment. Afterall, what's the use of buying a company with excellent growth prospects that is way overpriced?

[quote author=Iyke-D link=topic=34303.msg815032#msg815032 date=1168659231]NITEL
====
You did not make any financial claim about NITEL, but I also asked that you share those observations and research
that have you convinced to "may be" part with up to N5m "depending" on whether the price is right or not. You are
yet to see the financials but we are supposed to be sold on the fact that NITEL may warrant your shelling out up to
N5m on their IPO. Oh, I see, you were just thinking out aloud, as you will get your hands on the financials should the
need arise. And by the way, about company financials, I know people that at one point or the other that may have just
tinkered a little with a couple of 10-K, and 10-Q, especially when the controller or CFO has a certain figure in mind, if
you get my drift. The numbers themselves are just numbers, doesn't mean they are always accurate.[/quote]I'm not trying to "sell" anyone on the fact that I will invest, I was just talking about the growth opportunities that I see for Nitel in Nigeria. Given that, the only other thing I would do before investing is the financial analyses, and if both jive, then bingo, i'm game. Simple.

And yes, 10-ks and 10-Qs do get thinkered with like you said. And that's why I mentioned about they being audited by a reputable audit firm. At least, that's the best any investor can rely on, in the absence of actually going in there to do her own audit. Contrary to what you think, the numbers are not just numbers. They tell me what the past performance has been over a number of years (and it should be at least 5years as required for most companies listing for the first time) and on the basis of that I can make projections, comparisons, and all that good stuff that will enable me come up with a valuation or range of valuations as the case may be.

[quote author=Iyke-D link=topic=34303.msg815032#msg815032 date=1168659231]I am glad you cared to drop the "Wharton" thing in there for special effects. Though, you and I know when it comes
to real investment, you really don't need to attend one of those to be able to succeed as an investor especially when
it comes to start ups.[/quote]Now Iyke-D, this is the only one statement that you've made that I really do take very personally. And I will ask you to apologize.

I didn't, like you said, throw the wharton thing in there for special effects. You mentioned in your post that you were confident in the educational qualifications of the transcorp management and that a lot of staffers had some form of education in the US. And I was just trying to simply tell you that that could be irrelevant. I know from your location that  you're based in the US and would therefore know that wharton is one of the very good b-schools around. So in mentioning that classmates from wharton couldn't perform in an oil and gas company in naija, I was simply saying "one might have the best education from a top school, but it might not really count much without experience". So please don't misunderstand me on that one.

In summary, I see this site as a forum just to share ideas. In some instances, there would be disagreements and people will naturally want to defend their positions. There's no doubt that you like transcorp. I personally, for now don't like it. Now that might change sometime down the line as I see things unfold. If I get more comfortable about their business model later on, I might then decide to invest after doing my homework. But like you said, Time will tell.

[quote author=Iyke-D link=topic=34303.msg814380#msg814380 date=1168639692]NITEL
====
I did not misquote you, please re-read your comment about you investing as much as N5m in NITEL's
IPO depending on "whether or not the price is right". Also, kindly share with us the audited facts or
fool-proof observation behind your NITEL's claim and why you will want to invest in its IPO.[/quote]Yes you did. I said that I would invest up to N5m depending on whether or not the price is right while you've quoted me in your earlier post as saying that I would invest whether or not the price is right. When you ignore the phrase "depending on", those are two are very different sentences. The first says in other words, "I'll consider whether the price is right before investing", while the second says "I'll invest irrespective of the price". Those are two very different statements, so let's leave it at that. I'm not stupid, and can never put my money in an investment "whether or not the price is right", no matter how much I like it. So whether or not I invest will depend on whether or not the price is right.

Secondly, I haven't made any financial claims concerning NITEL, so you don't need any audited facts from me. Those statements that I made were just the type of opinions that you would typically find in the MD&A section of a financial statement, and therefore do not need to be audited. They can easily be verified by anyone interested in investing.  Like I said in my earlier post, if I wanted to invest in Nitel, I would do my valuation analyses based on the financial statements, and of course I'ld require the statements to be audited. Now, in the case of hilton, unless you actually went into the hotel to count occupancy rates, etc, you would need to have those figures that you quoted audited before placing any reliance on them _{at least i would think so, especially if you were planning to put your money in there}

[quote author=Iyke-D link=topic=34303.msg814380#msg814380 date=1168639692]Comfort Level
==========
Like a few other folks here, I got involved with Transcorp when it was mainly an idea on paper.
The private placement was about to commence and not a single acquistion has been made then!
What financial track record? We knew that while it might be a risky venture, we were sold on the
IDEA and the fact that its potential for wealth creation will be unparalleled in Nigeria if it succeeds
especially given the fact that most of the founders were at the very top of their games.

Of course, the only way for us to find out whether it will succeed or not was to participate. So, YES,
they are on track as far as we are concerned. And YES, we fully understand that its young and will
need time to get its acts together.

While, the IPO doesn't apply to my situation, I believe the driving vision behind the company's
emergence was one of the primary reason for embarking on an IPO early. That is to make it a truly
Nigerian company that is owned by as many Nigerians as possible. Additionally, this was also buoyed
by the fact that they intended to shed the image of being an "Obasanjo" company or a company for
the elites ONLY. Its a catch 22 situation - they go public, they are criticized and sometimes rightly for
accessing the market so early. If they don't, they have no way of fending off attacks about being an
"Obasanjo and friend's ONLY" company. What gives?[/quote]I personally think it's very OK to invest in an idea that one believes in, but that type of investment does not belong on the stock market -- it's best left to angel investors, venture capitalists and Private equity operators. Usually, the company will come to the market only after it has established a track record. That's the norm, and is even a requirement of the SEC in Nigeria. However, Transcorp of course had to be an exception. Now that makes me feel uneasy. _{Is it that they couldn't convince any VCs or PE firms of their viability and had to break all the rules and come to the capital market knowing fully well that the investors will be less demanding}

The reason you have given for the early IPO is just sentimental. "Nigerian company that is owned by as many nigerians as possible" or "to shed the image of being an "Obasanjo" company or a company for the elites ONLY" are no sound business reasons to embark on an IPO . Otherwise, any company can come up with its idea and then go raising funds from the public through the stock market with whatever sentimental reasons they want to give _{"i want to share my father's company with the rest of nigerians. . . yeah right}. It doesn't happen anywhere in the world.

[quote author=Iyke-D link=topic=34303.msg814380#msg814380 date=1168639692]Longe & Co.
========
Hmm, so someone that at some point was heading the biggest bank (First Bank) in the country is
not even remotely qualified to be running a holding company like Transcorp? I honestly don't think
they lack the human capital that is obtained anywhere else in the Nigerian private sector, if that is
what you are getting at. The company is very US-heavy (a lot of staffers and directors) have either
worked or had some form of education in the US at some point or the other. I have been to their
office and have dealt very up close with some of these guys and I do not have much grounds to
question their competency. Its at the strategic level that I don't have any first hand experience with,
but that does not mean that they are lacking for that matter. You know, you can buy a lot of these
strategic stuff. Do you think most of the people behind Google, Ebay, Yahoo, and the likes were all
that financially savvy? No, they were mainly techies that hooked up with the right venture capitalists
and the rest is now history![/quote]Now here's where I think you also getting me wrong. I don't have any doubt about Longe's qualifications or competence as an excellent banker. However running a bank requires a very different skills set than running a conglomerate, especially one with a lot of unrelated businesses, none of which he has any prior experience running. While Longe might have been extremely good at running the largest bank in the country, I doubt that he'll be able to exhibit the same level of competence in a business that's totally different, especially one in which he has no experience. Everything's different from the financial services sector, right from the calibre of people you're managing to the distributors and market segments you're dealing with. If Longe had some experience running at least some of the businesses transcorp is to be engaging in, then I might be a little bit more comfortable but he doesn't have any such experience.

You mentioned google and ebay, etc. And yes, that's my point exactly. The google guys were techies and they got into doing what they knew to do best -- Technology!!! That's the type of leadership a company needs. They didn't need to be financially savvy because that's not the focus of their business (they're not in the financial services business). Can you imagine those guys being put at the healm of affairs of a conglomerate manufacturing company? I bet you, if that were to happen, not even the venture capitalists or PE investors would touch such a company with a foot-long pole. Who wants to invest in a company that has as its leader someone without the relevant industry experience??

Forget all that US-education thing oh, it's experience that counts for real. Some of my classmates from wharton resigned from Mckinsey and went to work for O&O when that company newly took over Oando (formerly Unipetrol). They all returned to the states very shortly after 'because they realized that working in the oil and gas sector in nigeria is totally different from what they thought it was and had little or nothing to do with their US education.

Personally, when I invest in a company, I put a higher premium on experience as opposed to education. It's experience that delivers the bottom line. Ultimately though, a good education combined with extensive RELEVANT industry experience is the best scenario.

[quote author=Iyke-D link=topic=34303.msg814380#msg814380 date=1168639692]Bunmi Oni
=======
I suppose there is only one Bunmi Oni managing a listed company in the NSE or just the one that
got caught? So that you know, there are Bunmi Oni everywhere, even in the US. Ken Lay or Benny
Ebbers or Aldelphia guys will not be the last CEOs to be caught padding the books.[/quote]In making reference to Bunmi Oni, I was in NO way referring to his scandal with cadbury. I was simply saying that if you took a guy like Bunmi Oni, who had very extensive experience in the manufacturing sector, and put him at the healm of affairs of a financial services company, it is very doubtful that he would deliver the same type of results that he delivered with cadbury. That illustration was made in my bid to drive home the point that the fact that one succeeds in one industry does not automatically mean that he can succeed in another, especially one which is completely different. So my comments had nothing to do with CEOs padding the books and all of that other stuff you mentioned.

[quote author=Iyke-D link=topic=34303.msg814380#msg814380 date=1168639692]Government
========
What exactly do you mean by government's involvement thing? Is it government's funds, Obasanjo's
purported shares, or government's promised concessions/licenses that you are alluding to? I suppose
also that every other privatization exercises that resulted in other successful bidders were transparent
and fair, not until Transcorp arrived at the scene, right?[/quote]Yes I'm referring to all those and more. It has nothing to do with being transparent and fair, i just don't like the whole political jinx surrounding it. This is just my opinion. The president of the country, the head of the NSE, a nigerian company created to enable nigerians take advantage of the privatization bla bla bla. . . , all of the unrelated lines of businesses with a bunch of hand-picked directors, most of which have little or no experience in the business of transcorp, etc, etc . . . all to me sounds very unbusiness-like and definitely unprofessional. I don't like the feel at all. I'ld much rather invest in a company like BCC or nahco that has a clear-cut private sector ownership, not something hastily put together by the government and a bunch of his friends. Again, this is my opinion.

Hmmm, don't misquote me Iyke-D. I said i'll invest up to N5m in NITEL depending on whether or not the price is right

As per my justification for not buying transcorp, like I said, the sum of the parts is worth more than the whole. Transcorp as a whole will reflect negatively on NITEL's valuation. Read my post again -- even if NITEL by itself puts out stellar results, those of mtel and the other chains will dampen it. I personally don't see the others as companies that will make any profits in the near future (especially mtel), and that'll bring down the performance of the group as a whole _{that's basically what I mean by the sum of the parts being more than the whole}

[quote author=Iyke-D link=topic=34303.msg813655#msg813655 date=1168626922]- Transcorp Hilton . . . Occupancy rate now at about 70% from about 40% prior
to its acquistion. Overall 27% growth in revenue, that is all within 1 year of
ownership.[/quote]Yeah, and I suppose those results have been audited by a reputable firm right??

Few questions to you: Are you honestly comfortable with the management and ownership structure of that company? Aren't you bothered about the fact that they're doing an IPO without any results to show? Do you think the management has the requisite experience in the various lines of business to take the company to stellar heights? I mean the current MD has been a banker all his life for crying out loud. It's like putting Bunmi Oni _{never mind his recent thing with cadbury} at the helm of affairs of a conglomerate in the financial services sector (banking, insurance, credit cards etc)  and expecting him to deliver stellar results. IMO, transcorp hasn't got its act together in that regard and has hastily acquired several unrelated lines of businesses that its management clearly lacks the capacity to run efficiently on a long-term basis. There's no clear and coherent strategy, just a whole bunch of fluffy statements meant to psyche up would-be investors.

Besides, I personally don't like the whole government involvement thing going on there. It stinks. Even the stock market hasn't been too keen on transcorp. Ever since its listing at N6, it's only a handful of "collaborators" that have been buying the shares just to shore up the price in preparation for the IPO. _{Don't ask me how I got my info on that one, but believe me, I have my sources.}

Having said all these though, the stock may still make money. But I'm just not convinced it's worth buying, especially since there are more outstanding investment opportunities on the stock market. Infact, I'ld rather put my money in CPs than invest in transcorp 

goodguy:
I've moved my post to the right thread. I'll respond to you there.

unfortunately, i'm not following you there _{i'm married remember which means I can't be following guys (especially "good guys" ) around}

@ Goodguy, what Jesus said is clear. He is neither justifying adultery nor divorce. Look at the NIV version of Matt.5:31:

31"It has been said, 'Anyone who divorces his wife must give her a certificate of divorce.'[f] 32But I tell you that anyone who divorces his wife, except for marital unfaithfulness, causes her to become an adulteress, and anyone who marries the divorced woman commits adultery.

It's clear. Anyone who divorces his wife, except for marital unfaithfulness, causes her to become an adultress. I mean think about it this way, if she wasn't unfaithful maritally, then she wasn't an adultress in the first place. But if she was already unfaithful maritally (i.e was already sleeping with another man while married to the husband) she was already an adultress. So it's not the divorce that makes her an adultress because she already is . So if the husband divorces her, he does not make her an adultress. I believe that's why Jesus made the exception in that passage. Do you get that now?

OH no, I'm not comparing the NSE to the US market. If you look at my earlier post, you'll see that my case in point was UAC.

As per my views on Nitel and transcorp, I certainly believe that this is a case where the sum of the parts is worth more than the whole. That is, even if NITEL does well, the other divisions of transcorp will make the overall performance of the company (transcorp) unimpressive. Again, this is just my view and like you said, might be totally wrong.

PS: Can you please tell me what early indications of transcorp (apart from NITEL which I've mentioned) show that they are on the right path?

goodguy:
And I want to believe a part of that commitment says, "Till death do us apart", and not "Till cheating do us apart".

Yeah, but the basis of marriage is biblical and the bible does allow for divorce on the grounds of infidelity _{thank God}

goodguy:
Yeah, just like it's still the same loveable man that only made a costly mistake.   (okay, okay you say it isn't a mistake, I hear you! )

You already answered that one  . And eventhough I don't believe it's ever a mistake, I'm glad you used the word "costly" because yes, it could cost him his marriage.

goodguy:
But seriously, are you aware that men that cheat on their wives really do love their wives so dearly?

I don't think so. You certainly don't kill someone you love. I mean your statement is just riddled with contradiction. How can you CHEAT on someone you love The word Cheat doesn't go with love 

goodguy:
Why do you think they try as much as possible to keep their infedility a secret from their wives, and will do almost anything to prevent their wives from knowing about their illicit affairs?  Do you also know that men that cheat tend to guard their wives more jealously from 'predators' than other normal men?  Most men do not cheat on their wives because they no longer love them, most actually do out of covetousness.

I'll tell you why. . . It's because they don't want to suffer the consequencies of their actions. It's human nature, people who tell lies will try as much as possible to cover up their lies, just as people who steal or kill will try as much as possible to cover up their act all in a bid to escape the consequencies of their actions. It has nothing to do with love, it's just selfishness. If the same man goes out and does some really good deed, he won't try to hide it from anyone. Infact he'll blow his own trumpet if no one takes notice.

Yes, men that cheat like you said try to "guard" their wives from "predators", just the same thing with women that cheat. The reason IMO is because they don't trust themselves with the opposite sex and so don't trust their partners with the opposite sex either. For a man that cheats _{and the same applies to a cheating woman}, it's foreign to his mind for a woman to have close male friends without those male friends trying to sleep with her. I mean the guy knows how he is with women and believes that all other men are like that too. He'll therefore become insanely jealous of his wife's male friends or constantly try to "guard" her from "predators" like you say. Again, it has absolutely nothing to do with love.

Uche2nna:
From what I gather from this thread, this is my summary:

When getting married, forget about the better; Settle for the worse.
_{sagging breast,additional pounds,disproportionate hips,receding hairline,potbellies,snoring,halitosis etc}

Partly true but not all true. There's definitely lots of "better" in the marriage relationship. If nothing else, it stretches you into becoming flexible and you learn to take life less seriously _{which can be a really good thing for your health}. For me, it has also reinforced my sense of self-confidence and purpose, and made me a much better person. And then the kids come and along with that comes all of the thrills and rewards of parenting _{of course there are challenges too, but that's a whole nother story}. Plus being love and cared for sacrificially by another human is definitely one BIG "better".

However people change, especially physically. That hunky husband with the adorable muscles and 6-pack abs suddenly begins to get chubby in all the wrong places and lose the very full head of hair that you loved to run your fingers through . And if you're an exercise junkie like me, you'll still find yourself surrounded by all of your hunky gym buddies with killer 6-pack abs and muscles that . . . _{I'll leave the ladies to fill in the blanks, but you all get the idea}. What are you going to do then Will I because of the husband's newly acquired physical features begin to fantasize about another guy or even go to the extent of cheating? Of course not. I made a commitment to the Husband at the altar and will learn to love that chubbiness and the receeding hairline _{afterall it's still the same loveable person in that body}.

@ Iyke-D:

Yes indeed, conglomerates hardly ever do well. I'm talking more in terms of the valuation multiples investors usually place on them. They're hardly ever a good return on one's investment. At least we're both based in the US. Just take a look at how wall street for instance values conglomerates, they usually have lower valuation multiples compared to companies in similar lines of business but with a narrower focus.

As per my views on Nitel, these have only been informed by my observation and research while I was in Nigeria over the last 1 month. If Nitel were to go public, I would definitely invest as much as N5m depending on whether or not the price is right. Now I haven't gone into the question of what price is right because there has been no need to. But if I had to, then I would simply take a look at their financials and do some thorough valuation analyses. But I believe NITEL is on the right track and will begin to show some respectable performance in the next 24 months at least, based on the steps they've taken to date and the potential they have for growth.

To me, the only potentially profitable arm of transcorp will be NITEL. My reasons being:

1. They already have the infrastructure and network laid out, and so can easily recapture market share from all the private fixed operators. Besides, most people in Nigeria have nitel lines that are currently not working anyway, so it'll probably cost them a lot less to just have NITEL turn it back on, rather than continue to operate the much more expensive private operators -- in other words, switching cost for a lot of people with fixed lines is low!
2. Most of the private fixed operators do not have deep pockets anyway, so in the face of stiff competition with NITEL, they'll most likely fold
3. They have tried and tested technical partners (British Telecom) that have virtually taken over the company
4. Restructuring is right now on track and they've taken the first step in the right direction, which is streamlining staff strength and plugging all the loopholes from which funds were flowing out.

In my view, MTEL doesn't stand much of a chance, especially in the face of companies like MTN. OMG, I wonder how that company's going to do it (I mean MTEL). They don't even have the type of money that MTN has, or even the infrastructure or management or experience. MTN (and other current mobile operators) have now made getting a cell phone so cheap, I doubt that people will want to switch to MTEL in a hurry _{except maybe the MTEL loyal die hards}

The hotel business . . . well I can't say much for that right now, except that the fact that it's in Abuja may possibly be an advantage. But then there is so much competition and not one of the people on the Management of Transcorp is a hotel guru or even knows the first thing about running a hotel. I have my doubts.

So only buy into Transcorp if they spin off NITEL and put it up separately by way of a public offer.

Besides, look around the globe and you'll find that conglomerates hardly ever do well -- the sum of the parts is usually worth more than the whole. CASE IN POINT: UAC, which only started doing well after it stripped off most of its divisions _{I guess the saying "jack of all trade, master of none" rings true . . .}

Just my 2 cents

You're welcome my broda!!

kaecy5:
but getting into marriage with a false dream and false hope give it max 2 years your done with it

I don't believe expecting your spouse NOT to cheat on you is a false dream and false hope, if that's what you're referring to. It is expected!!

I'm sure you wouldn't get into marriage expecting your spouse to cheat on you now would you?

kaecy5:
but i come to wonder why u keep advocating for divorce on stance of cheating
if i may ask r u having some doubt about your man or prbably u have looked in the mirro of late and u know u can't be compared to his secretary? (no offence meant)

TOH i wonder when did pot belle become a problem u know u ladies use to love it back n papa ajasco days

but in the real sense women even add more pot belles compared to men expecially after 3 child births

To me, a marriage relationship (and any relationship for that matter) should be healthy and should be based on mutual respect and consideration. Each person has something to bring to the table and everyone benefits. It shouldn't be based on one of the partners feeling that they can do whatever they want and get away with it just because they think they're in a superior position to the other partner or because they think they're doing the other partner a favor by being in a relationship with them as opposed to someone else. In your case, I'm guessing that you're the kind of man that'll threaten your woman with the thought of going to another woman if she doesn't behave the way you want. Now if you have a woman with a healthy self esteem and that believes she deserves much better in life, she'll tell you to go to hell and get on with her life.  A relationship like that is absolutely unhealthy, manipulative and unnecessary. It's too much stress and I don't have to live with it.

Having said that, I'm not in any way an insecure person and definitely don't go comparing myself to any other person. I absolutely love the way I look and love who I am. So the one thing I never do is compare myself to others or compare my husband to other men, it's extremely unhealthy and could quickly become a manipulative tool. Once I made the decision to marry him, it was good-bye to all others for good 

I have no doubts concerning my husband. He's a great guy _{why else would I bear his kids?.} The fact however remains that I CAN'T STAND CHEATING, and that's the one thing I'll get a divorce for. Period.

PS: I really don't count myself lucky that I have a husband that loves me for me. I love him for him and I'm a blessing to him in every way _{believe me, i know what i'm talking about}. The least we can expect from each other is love and healthy respect. He serves me, puts me first and treats me with so much kindness and consideration and I serve him too. That's the way it should be  

@ whitelexi and goodguy:

You both make me laugh. Jealousy is a two-way street. From my experience, Men are a lot more jealous and insecure when in a relationship with a woman. I've met lots of men who would swear heaven and earth that their women are just plain jealous. But then you need to see the way they react when they see their women even just as much as say hello to another guy. This is most especially true for those men with very attractive women. It's just amazing when the guys begin to express all forms of unreasonable insecurities just because the woman said HI or was on the phone with another guy friend at 9pm  . Infact, in one of the instances I know, the guy went as far as recording his wife's phone conversations with her male friend, meanwhile he argues that there's nothing wrong with his having female friends that he calls regularly. Perhaps the reason people like to say women are the jealous ones in a relationship is because women are more expressive.

Anyway, the bottomline is that there is no excuse to hide your friends from your partner. If there's nothing to those relationships why hide them? And if you're the type of man who believes there's nothing wrong with having numerous other female friends after you get into a committed relationship, I doubt that your woman will be jealous if you also allow for the fact that she can have her numerous other male friends while she's in a committed relationship with you. Just close your eyes and imagine another guy (or other guys) continuously calling your woman everytime you're together  Now wouldn't that just make you feel very secure indeed <sub>especially if the guy is richer . . . 

** and i'm guessing at this point that someone is going to come up with the dumb "a man can have as many female friends as he wants while the woman should not have many male friends" argument **</sub>

I've been investing on the NSE for a couple of years now and have made some really tidy sums. If  you're interested in investing, look for a company with strong fundamentals -- management, market share, brands that are leaders in their respective segments, growth potential and of course, solid financial track record. And most importantly, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!!!

Transcorp lacks all  of these. Infact I wouldn't touch those shares at all. Besides there are far more outstanding opportunities.

Just by way of info, see http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2006/12/04/2136441.htm for some news on transcorp. And I do agree with the writer's views.

Hmmmmm, sure you're not bald? 'because it's only bald men I see exchanging words with women incessantly <sub>just kidding 



**this is the funniest thread I've participated in on this forum**</sub>

Yes it is, esp. developing a pot belly