₦airaland Forum

dollyp1cute:
What beats me is the fact that they have stated that the fair value for the stock is N1 and yet suggest a buy

Their buy suggestion is based on their projected value

software:
My dear, i don't think marriage is all about 50-50,
I will want to assume, that when the man is Acting irresponsible, the woman needs to stand in the gap for him, Pray and interceed for him, if a woman or a man thinks marriage is about 50-50 then they don't know what they are into,

Thats why they say marriage is a Big Commitment, Big institution

Oh yes and I agree. When the woman is acting irresponsible, the man needs to stand in the gap for her, pray and intercede for her too. When both partners are that way, there'll be no question of either one looking outside the marriage relationship to satisfy unmet needs. The issue of taking a second wife or husband would not arise.

Truth be told, our society and culture has changed a lot. Back then when men would marry many wives and treat them like property, etc those were the days when it was believed that only the man could work outside of the home. And of course when someone feels like they're the source of your livelihood (for instance when they're the one providing for you financially), there's always the very real possibility of abuse, especially as most people associate money with power. In a situation like that, it'll take a man of really strong character not to resort to abuse (like cheating on her, etc). These days however, most women are very well educated, work outside of the home and can earn their own livelihood.

If a man is going to be successfully married to a woman that can stand solidly on her own two feet financially and hold her own in most any aspect of life, he's going have to redefine his usefulness to that marriage relationship beyond one of just being a financial provider. She doesn't need your money to survive, so what else do you have to offer? She'll only stay with you if you can meet those of her needs that she NEEDS you to meet (otherwise what's the point?). Such needs as companionship, security (and contrary to what most people are apt to conclude, this to a woman DOES NOT MEAN MONEY), commitment, being a reliable and credible husband and father, spiritual leadership, etc. A man who'll use any excuse to run off and misbehave just because he puts money on the table won't last long with a woman like that. Of course, if you look very closely at marriages in which there is abuse on the part of one party, the "abusee" is most often overly dependent on the abuser in one form or the other (financially or otherwise).

frankiriri:
I don't like the fact that Afoil is on the buy list. Read in this weeks moneywise that they can't be located. What kind of management would relocate their operations and not inform the stock market.

Yes, I didn't think it should be on the buy list either. I guess that's why they've indicated it as a speculative investment, because it's highly risky.

Olu Abuja:
I didn't want to make any reply to this post but changed my mind
because i was involved in a case where we had to counsel a wife
to resign from her work. The husband claimed that their marriage
will collapse and infact was ready to divorse his wife because their
children are not getting enough attention.

He also claimed that his wife does not give him attention.

3rdly, he claimed that his wife's job is not making her more intelligent
enough because she does routine work.

The man violently insisted that she must resign from the job lest he
would file for divorce and he was dead serious about it.

Personally, i was shocked to my marrow as regards the above reasons
and i think it is more than that. I suspect another woman is turning his
head because you guys need to see his wife, very beautiful young woman.
She cried throughout the meeting and my wife even joined her to cry.

The man was just too hard. My wife and i really sympatised with the lady
but what else could we have done but to give some sort of solution that
will appeal to the two

In order to keep their marriage, the lady had to agree to the husband's terms.
We had to request that he allow 2months for disengagement from the job.

I doff my hat for the lady and pray that God will turn the situation for her good.

The simple truth is that her family/marriage is superior to her job

Friends, there are many reasons that can make a husband to ask his wife to resign from
her job. Some are selfish reasons, another might be for health reasons and
some might be or family reasons.

What will you do if you find yourself in that position? May God help you take the right
decision in Jesus name.

I'm sorry for the man in question because whether he realizes it or not, he has just signed up for a miserable life. You can't just suddenly turn a woman who's used to the corporate world and enjoys her work into a housewife against her will and expect her to be happy. Her unhappiness will in turn spill over to the kids and might impact negatively on their upbringing. There's a huge difference between kids being raised by a happy and satisfied mother and those being raised by an unhappy and frustrated mother. And I would think that the man in question would be smart enough to realize that. Of what use is it staying with someone and making them unhappy? What satisfaction is he going to derive from coming home everyday to a dull and depressed home? The guy just made a stupid decision, and he doesn't even know it

phrankie:
The decision's the couple's not the husband's nor the wife's. I'm getting married to an electrical/electronics engineer (_{soon i might add}), so the issue of her not working does not even arise.(_{Of course she'll practically murder me if i suggested it}) but I really would not want my wife to work for anybody. I'd rather she owns her business. That way she can mange her time, work as much as she wants as well as have time for the kids.
how does this sound??

Sounds like wishing for the moon. Infact having and running her own business will be more demanding than doing a regular 9 to 5 job.

The truth is that no one person who holds down a full time job that's demanding will have time enough for most other things, including kids. And that's why you as the husband are there. Raising kids involves TWO people, not just the wife. Just as I wouldn't like to take on a job that takes me out of the house at 5am when the kids are asleep and brings me back at midnight when they're again asleep, I won't find it funny with my husband if he took on such a job either. I want my kids' father to be involved in their up-bringing, and I definitely want to spend quality time with both my husband and kids.

With two people (husband and wife) actively involved in making time for the kids, the responsibility is shared and both can handle their jobs reasonably well.

Seun:
I wonder why wives are so eager to forgive their unfaithful husbands
knowing that those husbands would not forgive them in a similar situation.

Anyway, if I catch my wife in bed with another man, the first thing I'll do is go to a hospital for HIV and STD tests. My behavior afterwards will depend on the result of those tests. If I'm positive, I guess I'll sue her. That's all.

Very funny. Assuming you win the suit, that means she'll have to pay you damages right? The only thing is that the money will come from you both, since you're married. Kind of like "robbing yourself to pay yourself".

Hey I just got the following from Proshare. Some of it makes sense

                 
Stockpick for the week May 14-18, 2007
Posted Monday, May 14, 2007

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS
Stock Basis for Stock Pick Current Price (N) Fair Value (N) Price Forecast (N) Fwd EPS Fwd PE YTD Price Mov't (%) General Commentary
Union Homes F 7.85 7.2 9.8 0.48 16.35 124.29 Good earnings. Set to take advantage of favourable policies
Flour Mills F 74.1 66.29 90 5.73 12.93 14.26 Expanding revenue base through cement. Bright outlook
Wapco F 64 62.46 82 4.68 13.68 18.54 Looks cheap in view of earnings expectations
Oando F 73 72 90 5.26 13.88 4.29 Cheap, given past and future earnings.
Mutual Benefit Assurance F 2.85 5 5 0.26 11.92 330.56 2-3 month investments time-frame.
Costain W.A. F, T, MP 16.63 23.2 30 1.16 12.4 884.93 Agrressive Buy.
Afroil T 4.27 1 9 n/a n/a 988.24 Specualtive.
Diamond Bank F, MP 10.7 17 17 0.85 12.58 43.24 Undervalued. Limited Supply.
African Petroleum F, MP 65.85 87.3 87.3 4.85 13.57 42.26 Agrressive Buy.


SELL RECOMMENDATIONS
Stock Basis for Stock Pick Current Price (N) Fair Value (N) Price Forecast (N) Fwd EPS Fwd PE YTD Price Mov't (%) General Commentary
OKOMU Oil F 35.28 27.1 27.1 0.83 42.51 3.61 Overvalued
7UP F 50 37.83 37.83 2.14 23.36 25.82 Overvalued. High operating costs, low margins.
                 
                 
           
* Opinions and estimates constitute CSL's best judgement and are subject to change without notice     
**Price as at May 11, 2007                 
                 
Price forecast is our expectation of where the market will likely push the price to.       
Fair value is the actual worth of the company at the present time i.e. the ideal price to take position in stock if the market price is higher.
Forward (Fwd.) EPS & PE ratio are based on expected figures for the next financial year end.     
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Explanation of Basis of Opinion               
F: Fundamental                 
T: Technical                 
MP: Market psychology

chrysler:
To be candid, it is true that to err is human and, but one thing is sure,we men are emotinally attached to our wives despite the fact that we still cheat on them, we love them jealously to the extent that we don`t want anybody else to share them with us,
So a man can still love a woman n at the same time cheat on them bt we don`t want them to cheat on us because of the man thing or ego we have in us that we feel is being let down as a result of this,

Is this anything serious

So let's assume all men want to cheat and at the same time don't want women to cheat on them. Who are the cheating men cheating with? I presume they're cheating with other women that are in relationships with other men. Stop deceiving yourself. IF you're cheating on a woman who's content to stay with you despite the fact that she knows you're cheating on her, chances are very very high that she's cheating on you too and you just don't know it.

Omoba3:
Windywendy - Thanks for your positive sharing. It helps to know who the culprits are so as to avoid them.

Have you ever tried using variations of your name to buy stocks especially offers? If yes, how does it actually work. It was a suggestions from Frank sometime ago.

Yes I did use variations of my name to buy DSR simply because I wanted a large quantity and also didn't want to have a significant amount of returned money. It worked. After the allotment was over, I scanned and sent signed letters to my brokers for each certificate authorizing them to collect my certificates, returned money and dividends on my behalf. They did that and were able to lodge all certificates into only just one of my CSCS account and also lodged my dividends and returned money into my account with them. So it did work for me. Hope this helps.

I used to use BGL and Oh My God!! If there was anything like poor customer service, they were the epitome of it! It would take months for me to get statements from them and the silly accounts officer that was assigned to me would never respond to my emails, never keep to appointments that we set, etc etc. I finally got fed up and switched to FSDH. So far I've not been disappointed. I can easily monitor my account online, including the status of verification of my share certificates. My CSCS account statement is also scanned online and so I can see my position each month. I have access to all of the brokers -- including their cell phone numbers -- and can call to discuss stock ideas or follow up on my buy/sell orders. I must say they're quite good and proactive. They send me research and daily updates on the market. Of course, this is not to say that they don't have their little quirks here and there. They're sometimes too busy to respond, esp. when there's a public offer in which they're heavily involved. But overall, they're ok and get me good execution prices in good time -- of course I always specify floor/ceiling prices for my sell/buy orders.

I still keep BGL however, because I use them when I want to make multiple applications to good public offers. But I've nearly liquidated all my positions with them.

Just my own 2 cents.

I find it absolutely amusing and at the same time disgusting when I hear grown up adults blame their actions on others. How can a grown up married man sit around expecting his wife to keep him in check? Is that a husband or some boy that needs to be "mothered" in order to do what's right for his family? Do you think the woman married you because she wanted someone to be mothering If that's the case she might as well do away with you completely and face the kids -- they'll be more than enough for her to practice her mothering skills on, and much less of a hassle . Of what use is a way-ward husband that needs to be monitored in order to do what's right? Is that a husband Further more, is that the kind of person that'll be a father to her kids? God forbid!! I personally won't hang around a man like that for 2 seconds!!!

I'm shocked at women who put up with that crap -- it's just a sign of very low self esteem. Culture and society have absolutely nothing to do with it. Afterall no one can force any woman to stay with any man whom she chooses not to stay with. I honestly don't understand any woman who'll want a man that irresponsible, or who'll want to continue staying with a man that chooses to go out and bring destruction and misery upon his family and then have the effontery to blame his actions on her, saying that she's responsible for his behavior. Is that the type of husband that a wife is supposed to be submitting to? Someone who expects her to tell him what's right from wrong or who holds her responsible for his actions What the heck is that? That's like asking her to submit to her toddler!! That's absolute nonsense. By the way, I don't believe that any man should stand by and tolerate an attitude like that from his woman either. Life is filled with choices, you don't have to go down a destructive path with anyone.

A real man, and husband, is one who takes the initiative to do what's right and sets the example for his wife and children. He's a leader and care-taker and caters to the needs of his family in every aspect. His family's needs and well being come before his own. That's the kind of MAN a woman wants, and any woman settling for less is just short-changing herself.

PS: by the way, this applies to the men too, with regard to their women. Marriage is for matured people with plenty of sense upstairs, not people who run around doing mindless things and blaming their actions on others.

frankiriri:
@wendy
Have you heard of the 'greater fools theory'most institutional investors/analyst buy a stock they beleive is overpriced because they believe that there is a 'greater fool' out there who will buy it at a higher price.
I am enlightened enough to know that bonus issues on its own does not make a stock better, however, in the light of the Nigerian mentality I give some consideration to a company's bonus history.

Very funny. So if this theory is really real, then share prices should always be overpriced because those who buy it overpriced will turn around and sell to someone else at a higher price, who'll then turn around and sell to someone else at an even higher price, and the pyramid goes on and on

Anyway back to first bank. Have you seen their prospectus? I'm curious to read through it. I'ld like to know what expansion plans they have, etc and how they intend to put the money they raise to use.

frankiriri:
Very good analysis.
However I want to take you up on certain issues.
1. First Bank did not make N60 last year because of its fundamentals. It was just investor frenzy and the Nigerian investor's misguided preference for bonus at all cost that caused the price to rise.
2. The impact of the proceeds of this public offer willonly reflect in the earnings of the company in the financial year ending march 2008 and you are using their figure for the financial year 2007. Thus you are not comparing like with like.
As I said earlier I can't state cartegorically on how good the deal is until I see the financials. But I do know that given the current state of the market where even redundant companies are being priced at handsome multiples I woul gladly settle for a First Bank.
In fact I would rather buy a First Bank at N33 than buy a NASCON at N12 or a NAHCO at N63 or a Transcorp at N9.71

I'm neither endorsing nor discouraging the purchase, I'm just provoking people's thoughts -- infact I might buy into it myself on further analysis, but this is just my back-of-the-envelope calculations. But then, let me address the issues you make in 2 above.

So then, let's assume that for the FY07, the bank makes a profit of N20.46bill (that is, double what they've made in the half year). And then in FY08 they again double that and make N40.92b (and this is being very optimistic). This will translate into an EPS of N3.03, which will be good because at a P/E of say 25 (which is about the same P/E a bank like Zenith is going for), this will bring the share price to about N76. The question I need to ask myself then is: Can first bank make that type of EPS in FY08 -- that's what I need to figure out. Perhaps when I read the prospectus and find out what plans they have, I'll be able to assess if those plans can increase (or at least sustain) their EPS.

Trust me on this one: The current state of the market is not going to last, and as usual, stocks will revert back to reasonable levels and investors who buy at unreasonable multiples will wind up biting their fingers wondering what the heck they were thinking. Infact that correction is already taking place. Also remember that the more institutional investors that come into the market, the less opportunities there will be for overly outpriced stocks, as they'll most likely do some serious analysis prior to buying and will only purchase reasonably priced stocks.

On the face of it, the offer looks good, esp. compared to UBA. But let's do some math and assess this offer (just for the fun of it).

First bank currently has outstanding shares of 10.36 billion, and with the conclusion of the public offer, this number will increase to 13.481 billion (assuming the offer is fully subscribed).

Now let's assume for a moment that we're expecting the stock price to rise to the range of something in the N60's, which is what happened during the company's last financial year end. For this to happen, this means (at the very least) that the bank will have to earn the same EPS that it did back then, which was N3.3873. For this to happen with 13.481billion shares, the bank would have to make a PAT of N45.66 billion (i.e. 3.3873*13.481billion) this financial year end.

The question is: Can first bank make that much money, especially given that it's half year ending 9/2006 PAT was just about N10.23 billion?

Alternatively, let's approach it from the P/E ratio angle. First Bank's current P/E ratio is 20.61, as compared to Zenith's 25.23. Now let's even assume that the market gets unreasonably hyper active and the stock will trade at a P/E of 30. Also, let's assume that for FY 2007, first bank will be able to double it's half year result and make a PAT of N20.46billion -- or let's even say N30billion. This will bring EPS to N2.225. At a P/E ratio of 30, the stock price will be worth N66. Based on this analysis, First Bank is a good buy and I would go for it. But the big question is: Can first bank make an EPS of N2.225 anytime in the near future and will the market be willing to purchase the stock at 30 times earnings??

If you can figure out the answer to any of these questions correctly, then you have your answer as to whether or not to buy into the first bank offer. Otherwise you might want to ask yourself if there are better deals out there that are more certain to make you the type of returns that you want.

Now, I'm not going to deny the fact that hype might come into play, causing the share price to rise to some unreasonable level. But as always, the market will get corrected (think Nigerian Breweries which was once trading above N100 and can't even get to N50 these days) and prices will fall back to reasonable levels. Investors will only make serious bucks if they're able to quickly get in and get out while the hype is still on . . .

Just my 2 cents


PS: If anyone emailed me recently, I apologize for not having responded. I've been crazy busy and will respond with time.

Hmmm, Dangote flour mills to be out in June? Thank you all for the information -- means we have to start gearing up again for another offer . . .

Any takers on how the flour mills will do compared to Flour Mills of Nigeria (I'm referring to the one already quoted on the NSE)? It seems competition in that market is tougher than what obtains in Sugar. Also, Flour Mills of Nigeria has been at the business much longer and is more popular in the market (probably has a larger market share than most of the other flour mill operators). So how does any one foresee Dangote flour mills' share price doing after the IPO?

All views welcome 

@ Cheexy: Bid price is the price the broker will buy your shares from you if you want to sell to them, while the offer price is the price they'll sell to you if you wanted to buy from them. The difference is called a "spread" which is what the broker makes as profit. However this doesn't apply to stocks on the floor of the exchange as they're traded at one price. It's probably more applicable to mutual funds.

Btw, any news on why Stockwatch thinks Afribank is a hot stock? My brokers seem bullish on it too

@Tmoni

I've not been around for a while due to work pressures. But my schedule has freed up a little more, so I can send quick responses to questions

barge:
@windy wendy,

thanx 4 your in depth analysis in your posts. i will like to speak with u.I will be grateful if u can mail me @ baggio1800@yahoo.com

Have a nice week!

why not mail me at windywendy121@hotmail.com with any questions you might have?

@ cheexy:

Thanks for the info from stock watch.

Did they say why Afribank is a stock to watch? My broker (FSDH) is also bullish on that too. I bought it sometime back and i'm about to offload. I hear they're coming out with a public offer soon and that a core investor (a Nigerian individual) has acquired the controversial NSITF shares. Other than that, I haven't heard anything else. I'm wondering if I should just sell off or wait . .  .

Talktrue:
The sector to watch out for next is Manufacturing ie if there is any change from NEPA, favourite stock for me include, Unilever, unilever, unilever

Errr, can you tell us why unilever? I've been researching that company for a while and it seems they're in so much trouble that they can't really get out of without a drastic restructuring. Their market share is being eroded on all sides by companies like PZ (which by the way, invested heavily in expanding their production capacity and distribution networks and also partnered with some investors from China to branch out into cooling products -- haier, etc) and P&G. I'm not seeing any moves on the part of Unilever to regain or at least retain their market share, and yet their costs are not particularly under control.

So what's it about Unilever that you like? Pls share. I'll love to buy into it too if there's anything interesting on the horizon

Tmoni:
@windywendy,

thats some deep analysis,
been following your posts 4 a while,
seem to worth your salt,

1.so whats your take on dangote again i ask, i want to rough it out-- is it advisable, kind of panicking because each naira depreciation costs a lot to me.

I'll hold to Dangote because I think it's a good company with solid fundamentals. They're beginning exports next year and this will definitely have a positive impact on their revenues. Since they've proven to be good at managing their costs, a significant part of the positive impact should reflect in their bottomline and dividend payment, and this should shore up the share price significantly. The current sell off is something that I believe is temporary. So unless I see any other more profitable opportunity, I'll still hold on to it. Below is someone's view from Proshare:

Q: I recently received a question from a reader regarding the shares of Dangote. The reader's question is as follows: "Please advise on DANGSUGAR. I logged in @46 and it appears to be on the spiral

[b]Response:

Reviewing the charts, it appears people are taking profit. Since attaining a 52 week high of N56 on April 19, 2007, the stock has had four (4) consecutive days of losses.

The trading volume was 12 million yesterday (April 24, 2007) and 6.8 million today.

The fundamentals of the company has not changed. Therefore I will not be very worried. However, it appears that there are a lot of sellers in the stock for now, but the volume is declining – a good sign.

To illustrate, the stock opened at N47.68, and closed at the same price today. The current price is about N2.50 below yesterday's close.

The loss is equivalent to the maximum allowed daily loss by NSE. I need to see the stock open up, test a low of the day, and snap back to close at a higher price, before I will be convinced that the selling has stopped in the short term.

However, on a long-term, the stock will likely trade above N60, but it will have to breach all the over head resistances it has created with this decline.

CSL Alert: Friday April 27, 2007

Dangote Sugar’s share price continued its slide as it fell 5% and closed on offer.  However, we believe this will soon bottom out, and it will become attractive to investors again, particularly those with long term horizon[/b]

SavvyLanre:
@Everyone
All hail Guru Windywendy, i definitely think your credibility in this house,  is on the same level as Oga Frank. (I have been following your other entries)
@WindyWendy
Back to Mbenefit -
I also noticed the last two weeks activity of Mbenefit,  the trend has been upwards,  but could not find any good information.
Please, what is your take on Short-term and Long-term,
And, please where can i find more information.

Thanks Savvylanre! Please see my immediate response above for the link on the Mbenefit info. As per my take on short term vs. longterm, I think (and this is purely personal opinion) that any company that is undertaking a convertible bond or irredemable convertible preferred stock offer (just like standard alliance insurance) is definitely a short term thing, because this means there's a significant potential for dilution of future earnings, unless of course the future earnings will rise sufficiently to minimize the effect of the dilution (in which case I might go long term). As for Mbenefit, I'm not convinced that their earnings will rise enough to absorb the effect of any dilution in future, because given the nature of the insurance business (esp. non-life), premiums are difficult to collect and since insurance is not compulsory, there's a limit to how much premiums a company can charge (especially when there's stiff competition). I'm not sure how closely you've looked at such companies' financial statements, but if you do, you'll see that most insurance companies (esp. those in the non-life business) have a high percentage of receivables to gross premiums. Mbenefit has a relative high percentage, and for the last three or so years, their operating cashflows have been negative, signifying that their business hasn't been generating any cash (so most of the profit doesn't translate into actual cash that the company can use). This could probably change with the injection of new funds, but then, that's anyone's guess. I'm especially not comfortable that they are not diversifying their revenue streams (unlike a company like cornerstone that's establishing PFA's, going into real estate, etc). I also have a host of other issues with Mbenefit that just makes me take a short term view. The most significant one is the fact that the MD owns like 70% of the company both directly and indirectly (through his wife and other companies that he set up). During the last IPO, he transferred a significant portion of the shares to himself by "depositing" almost about N900m in the company. Now the problem I have with that deposit is that it came in form of real estate he had purchased through another company that he set up and NOT in form of cash!!! For a company with negative cash from operations, and that has had to go out and borrow from banks at a high cost, that's just not a cool thing to do. Besides, there's no guarantee that the value of the real estate is indeed N900k or that it even generates any money, etc. That deal just makes me a tinny bit uncomfortable.

In all though, the company is relatively OK and I believe it can do well short term with all of the injection of capital and with the access to new markets that they've recently got. I'll wait and see how they do this year and then decide on whether or not to go long term.

Meanwhile, does anyone have any info on Firstinland bank?

Talktrue:
@wendy
Could you comment more on the Mbenefit bond - what is the offer price for the bonds? What is the earlist conversion date? Is there a callable-option attached to the bond (ie 2011)? What is the ratio of conversion from bond to equity? What is the coupon payment of the bond? Is the coupon paid annually or semi-annually? Whats the minimum amount one can purchase.

Here's the link to the convertible bond offer -- the only one thing I couldn't figure out is when it is ending or when it began. But since Mbenefit was named stock of the month (4/2007) by these guys (african captl mkts), I'm guessing the offer is recent . . . Other than that, the information in the link should answer all of your questions.

http://africancapitalmarkets.com/page.php?id=104

cheexy:
@windywendy,
I enjoyed reading your post. I am reading a book called "Beating the Streets" by Peter Lynch and i read about convertible bonds. I also bought mutual benefits assurance stock and i have not regretted it. However, i didn't know that the convertible bond thing worked in Nigeria.

Thanks Cheexy. Aparently, they're not marketing the convertible bonds in nigeria (I think) because the price is quoted in USD. I'll find the link and post it soon.

Btw, "beating the streets" is a really good book. I've read it too.

Omoba3:
@ Windywendy - Your knowledge of stock is quite deep. I am really impressed.

Thanks!!

Omoba3:
From what I've read, Jos Breweries are in serious trouble, despite a core investor coming in. I'm sure the investor went in with eyes wide open, and can hopefully turn things around.

So you're sure a core investor is coming in? Do you have any idea who they are? Can't seem to find any info. I've called the company a few times and got no response. Anyone has any info? Just checking

cheexy:
@everyone
Please who has noticed mutual benefit assurance and first aluminum?

Some interesting things have been happening to Mbenefit lately. Their acquisition of worldwide insurance gave them access to over 1million cooperative accounts and they just acquired new business to provide insurance for some 500,000 exporters under the name of FADU. Mbenefit's management believes that this would increase their projected turnover by about 50% per annum. They've been searching for a core investor to take up 20% of the company, in order to provide more access to funds (and I suspect they're close to finding one -- they already found one for their life business). Anyhow, I learned they're in the market selling convertible bonds (I'm not too sure if the offer has closed already). The good thing about this is that they're able to attract private equity investors with such an offer. The bad thing about the convertible offer is that the investors are free to convert their share to equity at anytime prior to 2011 at an exercise price of N1.50, and this could potentially crash the share price -- unless of course the company is able to negotiate a minimum time frame within which no conversions can be made.

Anyway, I think the best thing would be to buy and hold short-term. I bought close to a million units a few weeks ago and have made almost 45% gain. I'm thinking of getting out within the next month or two, before the convertible bond holders get their share certificates and start to convert to equity -- because with the low exercise price, they could potentially make over 100% profit just by buying the bonds and converting to equity immediately, but I'm banking on the fact that it takes about 3months from the time shares are alloted to when they're verified and lodged with CSCS.

As per first aluminium, don't know nothing about that one.

Does anyone know what's going on with Jos International Breweries? I hear some core investors are taking over . . .

frankiriri:
The demand and supply for other good stocks will also affect the fortunes of the company. The First bank offer is expected to open first week of May and this would take its own toll on the demand for shares so don't expect the demand for Dangote to be too strong anytime soon ( except they relaese some good news)

Don't forget that DSR is committed to releasing results and paying dividends quarterly. The next one is due in early July, so perhaps people might begin to stock up in anticipation of a good result. The bearish trend may not last more than the first couple of weeks in May before the stock heads back up.

noble2007:
@ Dis Guy,
i recommend u go for AFROIL,most likely it wil reach N5 or higher

I hope you've seen their recent (very dismal) result, and I hope you don't get caught holding the bag by the time it starts to crash.

One word of caution: Don't gamble. Research, research and research again before you buy any stock! If it's worth putting your money into, it's definitely worth the ground work.

TayoD:
deejay1,

. . . I called naija yesterday and was told by my mom that she didn't bother to vote because everyone was turned back by thugs during the governorship election.  the thugs told them they have voted on their behalf . . .

Very hilarious

slimayuus:
Could someone please tell me why Guinea Assurance is still .72kobo if it is true that it met the requirements of the recapitalisation exercise. Am I missing something?

If you dig a little deeper into Guinea Assurance, you'll find that the core investor (an individual) has long been associated with doing shady deals and is right now under investigation for fraud in the US. Most people stay away from companies run by people like that . . .

feelgood:
Has anyone been watching ABC transport? It's shares have been steadily rising since it got listed on the exchange. Also the company has rapidly been expanding it's operations nationwide and its fleet has greatly increased. Recently, it entered into a business partnership with fidelity bank on e
booking and payments.
Any comments/advise from the pros out there?

ABC transport got a substantial injection of funds from a private equity investor headed by former anderson chief (kramer) and some ex-goldman sachs and ex- T. Rowe Price guys. I believe it's ACA, the same fund that took over cornerstone insurance and one other company on the stock exchange (which I don't remember now).

frankiriri:
I work in the credit risk management group of one of the leading banks and So I am privy to information that indicates that Banks are still in possesion of public funds. The withdrawa; was temporal. It has happened before and it would happen again. However I still don't think it would materially affect my bank or Oceanic as long as sufficient notice is given it would only increase the cost of short term funds.

So what's your opinion on Oshkosh's N55 target for oceanic? Or better put, based on fundamentals, where do you see oceanic's share price a year from now or by year end?