₦airaland Forum

Tears

Dsalvo:
Obi fans have no shame. Contesting for Presidency means highlighting your direct leadership history which must be validated by performance in your leadership jurisdiction. Anambra in the case of Obi. Not Lagos.

What is Obi's affiliation with Lagos to justify his unhealthy obsession with the State?

Bad enough Obidullards are covetous refugees, yet it is atrocious their unintelligent dullard of a leader is now showing the same shameless covetousness. Which other candidate is doing what Obi is?

Obi and his fans do not even have the commonsense to understand how wrong it is that Peter Obi want to die in Lagos, of Tinubu, where everything works yet he avoids Anambra, he led for 8 years, where nothing works today. Obi is just too dull and unintelligent.

Dicey elections:
1. With Buhari not on the ballot for the first time, will APC still garner those bloc votes in the North?

2. Will Atiku be able to significantly mobilize Northern votes to PDP?

3. Which will be more, northern voters that will stick to APC as per party loyalty or those that will vote PDP as per tribal and religious loyalty?

4. With the Obi factor, will PDP still garner those bloc votes in the Southeast and Southsouth?

5. Which will be more, southern voters that will stick to PDP as per party loyalty or those that will vote APC as per the Obi factor?

6. For Obi, inability to penetrate the core North either by account of personal charisma or party loyalty provides little or no route to the victory

Mynd44, Dominique, Justwise rules 2, 3. Tribal hate.

Okealaaye:
The Eboes will hear ween! Conceited fools who have taken more than the owners can ignore. Foolish fools who have taken enough for the owners to notice.

Exactly! I don't know why these people deliberately try to be obtuse when it comes to the Southsouth and southeast. When it comes to Obi's stronghold, they all of a sudden don't recognise the reality on the ground. They start hiding behind delusions like "Oshiomhole is in Edo, so therefore, APC will win Edo." Umahi is in Ebonyi, therefore, APC will win Ebonyi". Very dull analysis [quote author= post=121033978]Atiku doesn't exist in South-east same with Tinubu they will struggle to get 5% each save my post[/quote]

Okay, from your poll, nothing much will change for APC overall, despite the fact that Buhari won't be on the ballot and APC are infighting? But you took the the infighting of PDP into consideration?
And to show you're just a clown, you split southsouth votes for APC and PDP? Southsouth that is even more obidient than southeast? Then you have Benue to APC for presidential? People that have been killed for 8yrs by APC, you think they are so daft they don't know the difference between governorship and presidential?
You have southeast 72% for Labour. Something that is in the region of 95%?
Meanwhile for you, nothing will change for APC in the southwest, even though Lagos, where the bulk of southwest votes are is being split almost to the middle by Obi with APC?
Abeg, take down this embarrassment of a prediction, you're just another urchin.

You people are so cowardly, you can't even face the Fulani Buhari that is forking your tinubu up. You are still calling Ibos. Hate is a bad thing. You so much hate a tribe, you are willing to even hurt yourself just to spite them.

Godwin4444:
at least u igbos have rejoiced that tinubu can’t access cash now

At least he did this without d crowd n it was a success

Now my question to d igbos


Now that u have all agreed tinubu doesn’t have access to cash, what if tinubu still wins?

Hope we won’t hear another story?

I'm from Edo, there is nothing "Igbo" about Edo state. Edo is supprting Obi because most people there feel he is the best candidate, period.
You guys from the Southwest cannot process the thought that some other people can actually take decisions not based on tribal considerations. That is why you're looking for the ibo in even Edo of all places.
Even with Tinubu raising stick for national anthem, you would still insist on voting him, because, you just can't see yourself voting for an ibo man, a people you so despise.
Its a shame. Hate will make you hurt even yourself just
to spite another

senatordave1:
That is what I reasoned.apart from edo which has igbos in edo South, most ss that are backing obi have igbotic roots like in delta,rivers,...the people that vote in akwa cross are still stuck with broom and umbrella.that lp logo is widely unknown

I agree with you in many of the states you called and disagree with some others:
For your (1), the points I disagree are Delta: Obi will win Delta, it is a South-South state... That region is locked down for Obi.
He will get 25% in Ogun.
2 Atiku will get 25% in all those states you listed

Mynd44:
Every electoral year, SBM does this.

1. Obi isn't winning Kogi, Ondo, Nassarawa, Delta and Taraba. Not getting 25% in Sokoto, Ogun, Kebbi and Kastina and Oyo

2. Atiku isn't winning Borno, Yobe and Niger. Not getting 25% in Lagos, Ogun, Kogi and Cross River

3. Tinubu isn't winning Kano

But a Tinubu Run-Off with Obi? Stop the count!!!

Why hasn't he resigned? You can't be part of a government and oppose its policy.

The jumah messages today in mosques all over the north will seal the fate of Tinubu.
The message is simple and on just two points:

1. When a muslim and a non muslim are contesting for leadership, you're obliged to pick the muslim. And when two Muslims are contesting, you're obliged to pick the better muslim. (and the north considers a northerner a better muslim to a southerner).

2. Rebellion against constituted authority is a grave sin in Islam. So, clerics are frowning upon el rufai, ganduje and even Tinubu for opposing Buhari.

In all these analysis, i think what is deceiving you is the lazy old school assumption of identifying one or two big men in a state and automatically give that state to that party. For instance, in Imo, you will say, Uzodinma is an APC gov, therefore, APC will get lots of votes or in Edo, Oshiomhole is there, so therefore, APC will do very well there. It doesn't work that way. Only a political neophyte analyses that way. It shows how detached you are from the reality on the ground
The kind of delusion I see here... Bros Edo is 100% for Obi, stop being a clown.
Look at Plateau, so the northern Christians who have seen so much death in the hands of APC in this past 8yrs will still vote APC? are you not a comedian like this? Even the minority fulani muslim population of Plateau are going for their brother Atiku.
There is nothing swinging in Rivers, it is a southsouth state and the people of that region don't follow political leaders unlike the north or yorubaland, they have made up their minds on Obi. Ditto Cross River state. Imo is where I knew you were a clown. Imo is 100% for Obi. [quote author=wwwkaycom post=120974994]Honestly I agree with you, Peter Obi will win in Imo State but Asiwaju will secure his 25% there. Remember that even Buhari got 25% in Imo State in 2019.

Asiwaju will win in Plateau State convincingly.

I am removing Kano and Rivers States from Asiwaju's projected wins, he will do extramely well in Kano if he did not win outright anyway, he will get nothing less than 25% in Rivers, mark my words.

So I will put Kano and Rivers States in the swing.

Let me place this on record here how the candidates will perform in the swing states

Plateau - Asiwaju convincingly with Peter Obi doing so well too

Bauchi - Atiku narrowly with Asiwaju doing so well. Peter Obi won't get 10% in Bauchi State.

Benue - Can go to either Asiwaju or Peter Obi, with Atiku coming 3rd.

Sokoto - Atiku narrowly with Asiwaju doing so well there. Peter Obi won't get 10% in Sokoto State

FCT - Atiku, Asiwaju, Peter Obi neck to neck. Many Christians in Abuja will favour Peter Obi, Civil servants will prefer Atiku (I am so sure of this), other voters will vote Asiwaju

Edo - Peter Obi may win narrowly with Atiku and Asiwaju trailing

Cross River - Asiwaju or Peter Obi with Atiku not doing badly

Imo - Peter Obi with Asiwaju and Atiku getting more than 25%

Kano- Kwankwaso or Asiwaju with Atiku not doing badly at all. Peter Obi won't get 10% in Kano State

Rivers - Peter Obi with Asiwaju getting his 25-35%. Atiku won'tdo so well in Rivers State[/quote]

Nope you're wrong. The southeast and southsouth would not have rated Obi as they are rating him right now and would have very big apathy to troop out to vote another Fulani man in the person of Atiku. So, very low turnout in the southeast and southsouth.
While in the north, For picking an Ibo as vice, the core muslim north would shun Atiku and stick to APC. (notice I said APC, not Tinubu).
So it would have been easier for Tinubu to win.

But in this present scenario, with the 3 candidates holding their strongholds, the election will go to a runoff and then, one of the three will have to back one over the other to win

Sammy07:
Yeah, I swear if he was atiku vice year.

That's all.
Nothing can stop them from winning.

If you don't want Obi, then choose someone else, a person physically and mentally fit, there are 18 candidates, why must it be the most frail of them all? See what we suffered with Buhari cos of his health, you want to put someone in even a worse health state. Why?? Because you're so loyal to him? Because he is your religion or tribe? Pity other fellow suffering citizens na

yarimo:
so someone that defrauded small Anambra state as governor for 8 years is fit candidate in poor mind

Religion kee you there! We are talking about fixing a natiin in distress. If despite the suffering and hardships, you're still insisting on choosing a clearly unfit candidate because of religion, then, you're clearly a mad person.

yarimo:
Don't vote for someone who has no regards to his own religion

It is an anonymous forum, you can claim to be anything. The only thing that truly points to who you are is your view on an issue. To insist on having someone who raised a staff up with both hands up for the recital of the national anthem in a very obvious manifestation of cognitive decline to be president confirms all I need to know about you. You're either doing it for the meagre pittance they will pay you or simply because you so much hate the people of a particular ethnic group.

emkz:
I have a daily job that pays me enough to be able to live a decent life and even support others and those I believe in. Not every supporter of a person you dislike is paid to support him. Some of us support because we know the candidate and his cpacity for development.

You went on speculating that it could be hatred for people from a certain ethnic group. If you have no hate in your heart, you won't suspect other people of nursing hate towards you or an ethnic group.

You usually have nothing to attack, but jump to deploy insults and peddle lies because someone does't agree with you? It shows the level of your political maturity. I have been participating in elections since 1993, and there is one thing I will tell you: insulting people won't win them to your side. If it is a lie, ask Omoyele Sowore.

An urchin, labouring for his meagre pay from same people who put him in penury. Instead of labouring for a better Nigeria, so he will be free from economic slavery.
Or maybe it is not even the money, some urchin's motivation is the deep hate they have for people of a certain ethnic group. They hate that ethnic group so much that they would rather choose the destruction of their souls and mortgage the future of their kids just to spite that other ethnic group. It is a sad place to be... The life of an urchin

emkz:
I think what you need is to learn how to think.

You are used to "Rivers of joy", someone played with words and said "Rivers will be a forest of joy". Instead of you to think and even use the internet, you come online to say it is a gaffe.

Education goes beyond being able to read and write, but being able to apply knowledge through thinking and doing.

I watched Tinubu's engagement at the Nigerian Economic Summit Group, and it became clear why he doesn't talk to the media. Tinubu is way too intelligent than the average politician. His clarity of thought is so impressive and he thinks ahead of your time.

There is a book: "In the Forest of No Joy: The Congo-Océan Railroad and the Tragedy of French Colonialism by J. P. Daughton". You can see where the phrase "forest of joy" comes from.

Before you criticize Tinubu, at least have above average intelligence.

The percentages are rounded up. Of course other parties will get little percentages here and there in each other's strongholds

chinchum:
but allocating 0% to a ruling party in any of the 36 states automatically makes me question your understanding of Nigerian politics. There is no chance in hell that a ruling party at the centre will have 0% votes.

1. LP won't get 25% in all Southwest states, check Osun. In most of the south, most of PDP's votes would go to LP.
2. For Kaduna, Kwankwanso cannot get Obi's votes, Kwankwanso, Atiku and APC will all share the muslim votes. No Kaduna Christian will vote for any of those 3. The 25% Obi is getting in Kaduna is from the Southern Kaduna Christian population, which make up about 25% of the population of Kaduna state.
3. The breakdown for South East and South South is there for you to check again. In some states, it is 80s, some 70s. Check it again

Godwin4444:
Error number 1…..u wisely put it that obi will get 25% in all south west

Error number 2…. Peter obi can’t get 25% in kaduna, y not give it to kwankwanso

Error number 3…..so Peter obi will get over 95% in both south east n south south

U are decieving yourself

Nope, the race is between APC and PDP. With APC slightly having the advantage.
By failing to penetrate the core muslim north, LP has no identifiable path to victory.
This is a neutral realistic poll. By seeing the percentages I allocated to LP in its strongholds, you immediately jumped into conclusions. But if you can be open minded, you will see the larger picture predicts an APC victory

chinchum:
let me humour your prediction.
Who is going to win the run off? Or you think because obi wins 101% of votes in Se and Ss states, he will be declared president?

The most ovbious fact is that the opposition hurt its chances by splitting up... Imagine adding the margins of PDP, LP and NNPP.
It might go to a runoff, however, APC and PDP have the brightest chances.
In failing to penetrate the core muslim north, LP has no path to victory.

They are not voting Tinubu, they are voting APC

socialmediaman:
These numbers are probably assuming a high voter turnout for the APC in the north. Why do you think voters will massively turn out to vote for Tinubu in the NC, NW and parts of NE?

This prediction looks at how the top 4 contenders will fare across the country in the presidential elections. It doesn't make unrealistic assumptions, but based solely on the raw facts on the ground.
Look through it with an open mind and tell me what you think.


1. Southwest
Lagos
APC: 45%
LP: 40%
PDP: 15%


Ogun
APC: 55%
LP: 25%
PDP: 20%


Oyo
APC: 45%
LP: 25%
PDP: 30%


Osun
APC: 50%
PDP: 40%
LP: 10%


Ekiti
APC: 45%
LP: 25%
PDP: 30%

Ondo
APC: 45%
LP: 40%
PDP: 15%


2. Northwest

Kano
NNPP: 33%
PDP: 33%
APC: 33%
LP: 1%

Kaduna
APC: 40%
LP: 25%
PDP: 25%
NNPP: 10%


Katsina
PDP: 40%
APC: 45%
NNPP: 15%


Zamfara
PDP: 40%
APC: 60%


Jigawa
PDP: 35%
APC: 40%
NNPP: 25%

Kebbi
PDP: 45%
APC: 55%


Sokoto
PDP: 50%
APC: 50%


3. Northcentral

Niger
PDP: 45%
APC: 49%
NNPP: 4%
LP: 2%


Kwara
APC: 60%
PDP: 25%
LP: 15%

Kogi
APC: 60%
PDP: 30%
LP: 10%


Benue
LP: 45%
PDP: 35%
APC: 20%


Plateau
LP: 40%
APC: 20%
PDP: 40%


Nasarawa
LP: 15%
APC: 45%
PDP: 40%


4. Northeast

Adamawa
PDP: 45%
LP: 15%
APC: 40%


Bauchi
PDP: 50%
APC: 50%


Yobe
PDP: 40%
APC: 60%


Borno
APC: 60%
PDP: 40%


Gombe
PDP: 48%
APC: 52%


Taraba
PDP: 55%
LP: 10%
APC: 35%


5.Southeast

Anambra
LP: 95%
PDP: 5%

Imo
LP: 90%
PDP 5%
APC: 5%


Ebonyi
LP: 90%
APC: 5%
PDP: 5%

Abia
LP: 98%
PDP: 2%

Enugu
LP: 99%
PDP: 1%

6. Southsouth

Rivers
LP: 90%
PDP: 10%


Edo
LP: 98%
PDP: 2%


Delta
LP: 75%
PDP: 25%

Crossriver
LP: 80%
APC: 5%
Others: 15%

Bayelsa
LP: 80%
APC: 5%
PDP: 15%


Akwa ibom
LP: 80%
PDP: 20%


7. FCT
LP: 40%
PDP: 30%
APC: 30%

Cliche... The assumption that all women cook.
Mine hardly. I'm the cook of the house. I love cooking, its a hobby for me and it frees me from being dependent on anyone. Imagine being hungry and having to be at the mercy of someone else to determine whether you will eat or not

The headline should be "Cultists rapes and murders"...not "Cultists rapes to death". The repeated thrusting of a penis or joysticks inside a vagina can not physically lead to death. They killed her after raping her...

The first part of your comment makes perfect sense, frankly, it is same thought that occured to me. There is always a chaperon who accompanies school buses till the last kid is dropped off. That chaperon and the school proprietor must be arrested.

As for the last part of your comment about not leaving a female kid with a man.. I think that is true to the extent of non and distant relatives.
But as for not leaving a female child with her own father, I think you jusy crossed the border of delusion with this pseudo woke foolishness.
I drop and pick up my daughter everyday to and from school everyday. So I should come and employ you to be doing that? Stop indoctrinating hate against men, just because you hate men

LilMissFavvy:
I thought there is always a teacher in every school bus, and the teacher is dropped after all the children have reached their different homes? Arrest the proprietor and the teacher who left the bus. Never leave a female child alone with a Nigerian man, even if it's her father, but some people will not hear.

Shut up! He was a weak man, going to a worthless meeting instead of going straight to the police

Dshocker:
U are a terrible bastard to call the late Federick a weak man.

You come online and type rubbish, all to prove you are a strong man.

They can

Raxxye:
Guy, you well so?
It's a 7 year old girl!
Why would a 7-year old fabricate such a lie against a grown man? I mean how?

Shut up! He said the right thing. The man should have gone straight to the police, the police would then pick the molester and even school proprietor. If he had done that, he would still have been alive.
The worthless meeting the school called, what did it yield? The school is a business place wanting to protect its business. Nigerians must learn that not everything can be handled "as family". Learn to make use of the authorities

jahsharon:
Are you mad ni? Is your father mad? Is your mother also mad?

K

I did not read the article. Immediately I saw "The Nation", I know it can't predict anything but a Tinubu win. So no need

I don't care. It has nothing to do with me. Both the politicians and the military that allegedly want to plan the coup are all after their selfish interest.

K