Bros i enjoy you. Please help us tell those of them wey dey say human beings no dey north simply because they have visited one state in the north before. Their arguments are filled with sentiments.

long story my brothers, can you pls explain to me how Kano and Jigawa could have a growth rate of 143% ? Just that alone and it suffieth me!

davidylan:

long story my brothers, can you please explain to me how Kano and Jigawa could have a growth rate of 143% ? Just that alone and it suffieth me!

Don't forget that kano state alone has about 46 LGA's

Arguments are lame? Ok let's have you consider this,

www.un.org/esa/population/pubsarchive/urbanization/urbanization.pdf+un+">http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:d8blThXvxKcJ:www.un.org/esa/population/pubsarchive/urbanization/urbanization.pdf+un+%2B+lagos+population&hl=en&gl=uk&ct=clnk&cd=2
(Scroll down to number 20, 21, and then view the population tables)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_population

http://www.clickafrique.com/Magazine/ST014/CP0000001488.aspx

http://geography.about.com/od/urbaneconomicgeography/a/agglomerations.htm?rd=1

Kano and Jigawa = total growth rate of 143% => combined yearly growth rate of about 19%? *rolleyes*
Lagos (Commercial and economic centre of the country) = total growth rate of about 59% => yearly growth rate of approx. 4%

By those figures Kano will be one of the most populous cities on Earth by 2020.

They must think us to be absolute fools.

ishmael:

Don't forget that kano state alone has about 46 LGA's

Dont also forget that most local governments are unviable creations of the northern millitary bent on skewing figures in favour of the north so as to give it an unfair advantage in federal houses of legislature, federal cabinets and most importantly the lions share of oil revenues generated solely from the south.

Going by your warped logic, are we to assume that number of local governments is directly proportional to size of population?

I am not here to say that census figures are right or wrong. I don't work for NPC nor did i count people. some figures like Zamfara are surely not true. However the Lagos-Kano controversy can be resolved simple. A large number of Lagos residents moved home for the census count. Alot of northerners moved north so did alot of south-easterns and people from south-south. That could explain why Lagos became a few thousands less than Kano. It is as simple as that. Migration may have altered Lagos true figures!
But to completely say that the North is just a desert, obscure and without population is just foolish. I bet you that most of the people from the south here shouting left,right and center have never stepped foot in the North or have only been to a few places and have presented their miscalculated conclusions. The CIA says Northern Nigeria has more population than the south. CIA is not some crack-head organization to argue facts with, go check it out yourself( CIA factbook). People just feel they are right without checking their facts. People from elsewhere must know their words when talking about Northern Nigeria, don't go about saying nonsense and thinking people are not watching.

How comes foreign organisations had our population data even before the census?? how did they do their estimation??

Have you forgotten that these foreign organisations rate Lagos as one of the most populous cities in the world.

How come Kano that is more according to the census was not mentioned

dayokanu:

Have you forgotten that these foreign organisations rate Lagos as one of the most populous cities in the world.

How come Kano that is more according to the census was not mentioned

Did u see me anywhere on my post say that Kano is more populated anyday than Kano! I said migration during the census might have greately altered the figures of Lagos! Go to the CIA website and check the population of the Hausa/ Fulani, Kanuri and Tivs, then add to other minorities ( Katafs,Idoma, Fulfude,Birom etc). Read, analyse and understand before making comments people!

In 1991 16 years ago Lagos was more than Kano given the massive migration into Lagos on a daily basis for anyone that schooled outside of Lagos you can be guaranteed that after graduation 50% of your mates are on their way to Lagos.

There are 4.1 million houses in Lagos then are we sating we have an average of less than 3 people per household? go to Ajegule, IyanaIpaja,Agege even Alimosho local govt alone should be about 4 million.

The large number of `LAGOS' settler that live in Ogun state how did that affect the population of Ogun State. I mean Ogun State should have a large population too?

For the past few year UN agengies have regarded Lagos as one of the Largest cities population wise in the world these are organisations that have no political interest in Nigeria how come they never mentioned a city called Kano?

The land mass does not have much influence on number of inhabitant the natural condusive environment like fertile land and mild weather determine population concentration

80% of families in southern Nigeria have at least a relation living in Lagos, 60% of South Eastern adult reside in Lagos, all ethnic nationalities are represented in large numbers in Lagos

What natural disaster has happened in Lagos between 1991 and 2006 that would make Kano overtake it and we all know of the frequent religious and political riots starting from June12 Kano has witnessed that has claimed many lives and sent numbers away from Kano.

There is high infant mortality in the north including Kano the women deliver a lot but the children die a lot. Polio and other child killer diseases are still prevalent in the north. so how come Kano is more than Lagos??

Danmasani:

However the Lagos-Kano controversy can be resolved simple. A large number of Lagos residents moved home for the census count. Alot of northerners moved north so did alot of south-easterns and people from south-south. That could explain why Lagos became a few thousands less than Kano. It is as simple as that. Migration may have altered Lagos true figures!

We do not need a soothsayer to tell us that Lagos is more than "a few thousands" more than the population of Kano! How many millions migrated home from Lagos in the space of less than 5 days just for the census? Let's be realistic here!

Danmasani:

But to completely say that the North is just a desert, obscure and without population is just foolish. I bet you that most of the people from the south here shouting left,right and center have never stepped foot in the North or have only been to a few places and have presented their miscalculated conclusions. The CIA says Northern Nigeria has more population than the south. CIA is not some crack-head organization to argue facts with, go check it out yourself( CIA factbook). People just feel they are right without checking their facts. People from elsewhere must know their words when talking about Northern Nigeria, don't go about saying nonsense and thinking people are not watching.

Yep, i wonder when the CIA came to carry out their fact finding mission. Even the CIA factbook puts Nigeria's population growth rate at 2.38% while the UNFPA estimates it to be around 2.5% for the yr 2006. If the yearly growth rate of just Kano and Jigawa states is 19%, that must mean the growth rate in certain states would either be zero or negative!
According to the UNFPA, Lagos is listed 7th among the 19 megacities in the world with an estimated population of 13.4million in 2000 projected to become the 3rd most populated city in the world by 2015 with an estimated population of 23.2million! You will agree with me that the UNFPA is not some crack-head organization to argue facts with too!
Just to remind you that Kano is conspicously missing from that list! Perhaps you might want to remind them that Kano and Jigawa states the highest population growth rates in the world at 19% per yr!

Going by your unreasonable logic that attempts to stand reason on its head, at least  5 million people must have migrated out of Lagos within 3-5 days during the census!

Well, it is not the best to come into any arguement with a specific mindset as such practice lead to name calling when people do not agree with a particular position.

Just as the CIA did not conduct a census in Nigeria, a lot of us here maintaining that Lagos has more population than Kano did not conduct any either.

Let us also remember that people living in Akute and its environs will not be counted as Lagosians just as any single person that traveled out of Lagos would imply minus 1 for Lagos and plus 1 for the destination.

But I believe Lagos conducted its own census side by side the federal one. Let Lagos release its results so that we can get a handle of what is really going on because I expect Lagos to counter the claims by making available the results it recorded instead of making general and sensational statements about the results being rejected.

We must promote intelligent discussion with a view of understanding our environments and preventing our leaders from toying with our future.

Lagos has already rejected the results. The official NPC figures will have us believe Lagosians suddenly experienced a dip in Birth rates and a simultaneous increase in death rates while the North experienced Large Birth rates and Low Deaths rates within the same 15 year period. That's the only logical explanation. Migration of people before the census cannot explain the large number gap. That amount of people migrating before the census would have caused chaos, especially as airports were all but deserted.

Let Lagos state release its own results, afterall they counted the people side by side the NPC.

Rejecting it is one thing, going a step further to show us what the real figures are is another.

They should release its findings unless it is hiding something.

Afam:

Let Lagos state release its own results, afterall they counted the people side by side the NPC.

Rejecting it is one thing, going a step further to show us what the real figures are is another.

They should release its findings unless it is hiding something.

My brother, these guys are being sentimental thats all. CIA did not conduct any census in Nigeria so how do you expect them to give you a good approximation of the number of people in Lagos state?? They only gave us an estimate which at the end of the day would either be correct or wrong. Now a complete census has been carried out and the CIA estimate has been proven to be incorrect. Its the same thing as the estimate they were giving about "NIgeria" in general; before the census the whole world was told that nigeria had an estimated population of 150 million, but today it is less than that figure.
Please lets stop arguing about these figures jo, it won't help us.

ishmael:

My brother, these guys are being sentimental thats all. CIA did not conduct any census in Nigeria so how do you expect them to give you a good approximation of the number of people in Lagos state?? They only gave us an estimate which at the end of the day would either be correct or wrong. Now a complete census has been carried out and the CIA estimate has been proven to be incorrect. Its the same thing as the estimate they were giving about "NIgeria" in general; before the census the whole world was told that nigeria had an estimated population of 150 million, but today it is less than that figure.

Only a while ago, DRANOEL used this same CIA factbook you are now discrediting to buttress his claim that there were more people in the north than the south! Are you now indicating that the UNFPA projections are all wrong? It belies all forms of logic that Lagos the commerciall nerve center of the nation with seaports will be smaller in population compared to Kano, a desert and landlocked state without any viable industries!

ishmael:

Please lets stop arguing about these figures jo, it won't help us.

Classic defeatist attitude! The major reason corrupt leaders are still in power.

davidylan:

Only a while ago, DRANOEL used this same CIA factbook you are now discrediting to buttress his claim that there were more people in the north than the south! Are you now indicating that the UNFPA projections are all wrong? It belies all forms of logic that Lagos the commerciall nerve center of the nation with seaports will be smaller in population compared to Kano, a desert and landlocked state without any viable industries!

Classic defeatist attitude! The major reason corrupt leaders are still in power.

Hmm, Kano is now a desert aigh!

The only constant here is that everybody agrees theres an inconsistency in the results, so i dont know the reason for these arguements.

Please for those talking about sentiments i its not about sentiments, its about figures, please look at the figures, someone has done the maths, Its impossible by whatever standard to register those growth rates abscribed to Kano. Anywhere in the world even China and India in the days of population growth their regions didnt exhibit such growths.

Lets forget migration, birth, death rates etc, nothing can explain such phenomenal growth. If such growth had taken place the infrastructures would have crumbled, we would have heard of the stress on everything, it didnt happen we all know that.

@ Afam yes its the NPC that counted but when they have told us to our faces that we are stupid we should clap for them for a job well done, in other civil societies by now Mr. Makawa (NPC chairman is that his name again) would have resigned.

Again i note we all agree on one thing the results doesnt make sense so why is anyone trying to justify senselessness and falsehood. Lagos > or < than Kano, Zamfara > or < than the moon, please the result is a script.

@Buluti,

I am certain former heads of states were present when the results were announced (unless it was another function I saw on TV) so all the stake holders were present and I would not know why one will allow the other manipulate the results the way we all fear now without any challenge.

Under a northern president the arguement may be made that the president wanted the north to get the highest population but with a southern president this same line of thinking can't hold.

I still expect Lagos state to release its own results and let the world see if it is different from what the NPC recorded, afterall they carried out a joint excercise.

The failure of the Lagos state in not announcing this result keeps me thinking.

Is the result as released by the NPC correct?

Why not expose the fraud by announcing its own result? Is the state government hiding something and merely complaining rather than backing it up with a parallel census results for Lagos state?

My dear, I have not learnt to support anything I don't have enough information on.

I asked about the 1991 census and someone stated that the populations of Kano and Lagos were almost the same according to a post made by davidylan

According to the 1991 census figures, Kano state was purported to have a population of 5,632,040 while that of Lagos was put at 5,685,781.

So, as at 1991, Kano was more population by less than 60,000 people.

I really will not stake my head for speculations, postulations or guess work as one may be following a bad lead and I don't like running into dead ends.

I am not surprised at the results recorded in the South East because a lot of us are scattered outside the South East both within and outside Nigeria.

Under Gen. IBB a northerner the population figures for Kano were inflated or falsified; why then under Gen. OBJ a southern will the population figures for kano state in the north be inflated or falsified?? Would OBJ a south westerner have agreed for kano state in the north to have the highest figure, if it were not so?? Let Lagos state release its own parallel census result to clear the air i beg.

ishmael:

Under Gen. IBB a northerner the population figures for Kano were inflated or falsified; why then under Gen. OBJ a southern will the population figures for kano state in the north be inflated or falsified?? Would OBJ a south westerner have agreed for kano state in the north to have the highest figure, if it were not so?? Let Lagos state release its own parallel census result to clear the air i beg.

The highlighted statement is a clear example of tunnel reasoning! That OBJ is southerner does not mean he suddenly supports southern causes, this was the same man who told us Abiola was not a Messiah, the same man who has refused to acknowledge June 12, the same man who handed over power to a northerner, sheu shagari, in a fraudulent election.
This is the same man who in 1999 signed an agreement to return power to the north after his 8 yr rent agreement in office was over, the same man who treated the sharia issue with kid gloves while thundering "CAN my foot!"

Obasanjo might be president but there are more powerful forces at play here that dictate the tune at Aso Rock!

Afam:

@Buluti,

I am certain former heads of states were present when the results were announced (unless it was another function I saw on TV) so all the stake holders were present and I would not know why one will allow the other manipulate the results the way we all fear now without any challenge.

Lets assume you forgot that all those former heads of state barring the weakling Earnest Shonekan are all northerners! I dont see them challenging a result that gives them a massive advantage ahead of the 2007 polls.

davidylan:

The highlighted statement is a clear example of tunnel reasoning! That OBJ is southerner does not mean he suddenly supports southern causes, this was the same man who told us Abiola was not a Messiah, the same man who has refused to acknowledge June 12, the same man who handed over power to a northerner, sheu shagari, in a fraudulent election.
This is the same man who in 1999 signed an agreement to return power to the north after his 8 yr rent agreement in office was over, the same man who treated the sharia issue with kid gloves while thundering "CAN my foot!"

Obasanjo might be president but there are more powerful forces at play here that dictate the tune at Aso Rock!

Lets assume you forgot that all those former heads of state barring the weakling Earnest Shonekan are all northerners! I don't see them challenging a result that gives them a massive advantage ahead of the 2007 polls.

Pally you are funny o, . So mean OBJ is being controlled by some people?? Na dem who you think say dey dictate for OBJ?? lets hear their names please. i'm waiting!!

ishmael:

Pally you are funny o, . So mean OBJ is being controlled by some people?? Na them who you think say dey dictate for OBJ?? lets hear their names please. i'm waiting!!

I wont humor you with a response beyond this, you clearly have trouble thinking outside a box.

@ Afam i quite apprecitae your patriotism, the Old Kano state then consisted of Kano and Jigawa and had N5.6 million, Lagos alone had N5.6 million, now Kano alone has N9 million, put Kano and Jigawa together and see the results, well if they add up to you its all good and if you believe this census is accurate its your opinion.

You talk about postulations as if its a bad thing, how would there be improvement if we all accept hook line and sinker what the govt says. Tony Blair now is calling on a debate on UK military interventions following the heavy criticism he has received on Iraq and Afghan, , he sees the logic in what people are saying but states his own position, but becos everyone is making sense a debate has been called. Its not i say it and thats final. Thats our the societies gets better, a debate should have been called on this results but again such things are not in our culture.

I dont think we should accept fraud in the name of patriotism thats actually being unpatrotic, not challenging what you dont have info on thats simplistic, you have ifactors such as the topography, climate, risk and presence of diseases, natives and their approaches e.t.c.

Please Nigeria is no exception there are empirically verifiable ways of estimating populations and studying migration, its not postulations, they are empirically verifiable facts, e.g. stating that there is a direct relationship between population growth and natives attitudes i.e the more natives are hospitable to foreigners lets call it non-indigenes the more a given population would grow (assuming certain constants such as occupational mobility, job availability) is no postulation.

To measure population growth is easy, then to measure natives attitudes you decide variables that can capture it, may be number of deaths in riots, state legislation (for this u can set a dummy 0 for presence of religious laws, 1 for absence) etc you can add more variables then run a multiple regression you would see the results clearly, these are empirically verifiable ways, the results have always been consisitent with literature where the study has been done. We have Universities, let the govt fund a research to study census and population growth, our universities should be studying a lot of issues in Nigeria they can, but if that happens how can the distortion continue. As a people we are not interested in research some would call it speculations and there would be no more money for the fleet of cars.

Are you still suggesting these results are accurate? This council of state you are talking about do they have a history of credidibility, have they run Nigeria into Economic prosperity. What have they gotten right in our nation , oh sorry i forgot the census. I would not go into the issue of OBJ, northerner, southerner and if OBJ is sympathetic to north or southern issues or not, the fact that our constitution is the way it is tells a lot.

My aim is to state that its no postulation or speculation but empirically verifyable to estimate populations and then census results using factors peculiar to settlements. What do you think the UN did?

They didn't actually count the PEOPLE in Kano.

Some hausa man who has his wives locked up in the house probably told the 'census people' that, it's against his religion for them to see his wives, but he will tell them how many people are in his house.

The guy probably gave a ridiculous figure, thinking that census is crap anyways.

You all know that this is not the true figure, so i think arguing would be useless. Lagos is filled with people swamming around likes bees on honey. ANd some census is telling me that Kano has the highest population of people in NIgeria. Abeg!

davidylan:

I wont humor you with a response beyond this, you clearly have trouble thinking outside a box.

That means i'm the opposite of you. You think outside the box that is why you find it difficult to know exactly what happens inside or within the box. Cheers!!

@Buluti,

I don't know what patriotism has got to do with the issue of the census. This is a huge departure from the way your posts have been, don't know why and don't really care why.

I am a full blooded Igbo man from Enugu state so I am in the least concerned with all these ethnic or tribal sentiments people easily bring to the fore when issues are asking to be discussed devoid of any sentiments or bias.

Emperically calculated or not, only a census can give a definite answer as regards the population of any nation or state.

Am I still suggesting that the result is accurate? If all the logic behind the objections raised thus far is based on the arguements I have read on this thread then I will most likely stick with the results by NPC than with the objections.

Again, when was Kano state divided into 2 states? I not sure of the year so I want to know so one can take a good look at the 1991 census results. That way we can separate real issues as some arguement seems to suggest that old Kano's population was the one being compared Lagos.

If Lagos state (that so far has what it takes to rubbish the results based on the fact that it conducted a parallel census at the same time) cannot release its results then the complaints can be effortlessly sent to the trash can.

I never look forward to a future based on rumours, sentiments, bias misinformation.

My worry is that inspite of all the criticisms raised, nothing tangible has been stated to show that the results are fake. All we read here is that the results cannot be correct even when reasons to believe otherwise cannot be made.

Wow, I have  read quite a few posts and in all honesty, I am amazed and somewhat  'impressed' that people have found reasons to justify the fact that Lagos has a lower population than Kano. Life itself  is  against that  theory. Everything we see  and   experience  in our day to day activities say it is wrong. Lagos should be  millions ahead any other state. Land  mass is not significant if  they are  not occupied!

How many ports does Kano have?How many of  Nigeria's big companies  have their head offices in Lagos.Let us ask the GSM companies about the number of calls originating  from Lagos comparedto Kano. How many  Sky scrapers(that people actually  live in) are in Lagos compared to kano. What is the number  of  built up areas?Do you  know the amount of waste(from  people) that  Mushin alone generates is more than many states in Nigeria combined together?We  can go on and  on.Lagos controls a great deal of  economic activity that attracts people and  that clearly  is why people think the figures are wrong.

what the census figures show is that the organisers have given rationale Nigerians a good reason not to take them serious.The manner is which the president received and approved it is also suspect.

For those who saying that northerners travel for the census from lagos. It was not only northerners that traveled; others traveled as well.How  come the figures did not  blow up in other states.

I really dont know wat all the fuss is about, what difference does it make vice versa? If Kano is more populous than Lagos so what? The issue should be how to improve the lot of those millions of people anywhere they are in Nigeria.
When will Nigerians learn to let go of tribal, ethnic, religious and other sentiments that have bedevilled our nations progress?
I am surprise at YOU (the future generation)

@ozorjiu


Tell me who are you going to vote for, Ojukwu? a southerner?

I really don't know what all the fuss is about, what difference does it make vice versa? If Kano is more populous than Lagos so what? The issue should be how to improve the lot of those millions of people anywhere they are in Nigeria.
When will Nigerians learn to let go of tribal, ethnic, religious and other sentiments that have bedevilled our nations progress?
I am surprise at YOU (the future generation

Please do not be dissapointed at the future generation becuase without justice there can never be peace. The northerners will have have unfair and unmerited advantage over the scheme of things in this country which should not be so. They produce the least resources in this country , yet receives the lion share. See until we learn to pay to Caesar to what is Caesar's this country will not know peace.

@ Ishmael such a statement gives credence to why davidylan does not want to humor you.

Staying inside the box or within the box suggest limitations in your outlook and views, its not a good place to be. Believe me its not a good place.

@ Afam i didnt call you a tribalist did i? no need to get worked up in cyber space please take it easy. For the avoidance of doubt my methodology hasnt changed i was just gettin unnecessarily academic but again it was to suggest to you that census results can be contested.

I was trying to challenge you not to take a simplistic approach which unfortunately u still are, remember i told you in a previous post it is important to pay attention to geography becos it tells a lot, its not rumors, sentiments or misinformation as you call it, it is the body of existing knowlege, migration, death rates and so on are the tools used to analyse population. Nigeria cant be an exception.

Afam:

Emperically calculated or not, only a census can give a definite answer as regards the population of any nation or state.

Thats so false and untrue, sorry some carry out researches and never really need to go out, they read journals gatherin existing knowledge then conduct their own study then present their results, in objective societies the field results never differ, where they do explanations are presented and opinions sought. Again i ask you how can the UN estimate world population??  

You ignored all the comments i made on the post, i raised issues on objections, research etc.  These studies and researched are the bedrock of the western civilization.

From your response i can see you didnt understand my post, first in your opinion what do u consider tangible, Lagos results !! pls how can we ascertain that Lagos would not falsify the figures as well, its not about OBJ, Tinubu its about how we can ascertain the veracity of claims made by the govt in an objective verifiable way.

I am in no way underplaying the importance or usefullness of conducting a census, it is desireable but again the results should be consistent with "common sense" even bigger with literature, where it is not the onus of proof is on who conducted it to explain the discrepancies, that has not been done.

The thread on analysis has broken it down further, theres a discrepancy that nobody is explaining, let the NPC do that and not call us stupid assuming that we are all illiterates and cant think.