Welcome, Guest: Register On Nairaland / LOGIN! / Trending / Recent / NewStats: 3,152,739 members, 7,817,038 topics. Date: Saturday, 04 May 2024 at 12:17 AM |
Nairaland Forum / 4Play's Profile / 4Play's Posts
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (of 277 pages)
Crime / Abusive Husband Killed Wife With Skateboard by 4Play(m): 2:02pm On Apr 25 |
An abusive husband beat his wife to death with their son's skateboard while police outside waited for permission to enter from superiors. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13349449/Abusive-husband-beat-wife-death-skateboard.html 2 Likes 1 Share
|
Politics / Re: Filling Stations Are Selling Petrol At N110: Why? by 4Play(m): 1:57pm On Mar 10 |
There were at least 2 comments on that first page speaking highly of Venezuela. This was in 2012. Look what happened to Venezuela shortly after and what is happening to Nigeria now: Venezuela is introducing economic reforms including new banknotes that lop five zeros off its fast-depreciating currency as the country battles hyperinflation. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/20/venezuela-bolivars-hyperinflation-banknotes |
Business / Re: Countries Where Binance Is Banned, Restricted (Full List) by 4Play(m): 2:08pm On Mar 02 |
Binance is banned in those countries to protect customers from excessive losses due to crypto volatility and scams. Nigeria is taking action against Binance to use it as excuse in a blame game regarding naira's collapse. 1 Like |
Politics / Re: The Irrationality Of The CBN Interest Rate Hike by 4Play(m): 9:22am On Mar 01 |
DevilsEqual: This argument, that Nigeria is exceptional and so standard or "textbook" economic theories don't work in Nigeria is an often trotted out claim that has only served to justify some of the most bone-headed policies you will ever see. Nigeria is not exceptional when it comes to the understanding that if central bank interest rates are way below the rate of inflation, the rate of inflation cannot be curtailed. If these people disagree, please give us examples of where significant and protracted high inflation was resolved without raising rates. Of course, businesses need low interest rates. But if consumers are suffering from inflation and the currency is losing value, businesses are not going to invest. Where were the business investments when rates were lower? In this environment, if I run a business and you lend me money at low interest rates, the best returns I can make would be gained by finding a way to convert my money into dollars and waiting a few years for naira to lose value to the dollar and I can pay back the naira denominated loan. The reality is that low interest rates makes it very profitable to swap naira for dollars. If you are a saver in naira, your savings lose value and is not offset by the interest rates you get on your savings. You cannot stimulate your economy out of an inflation crisis. I also agree that increasing rates is not enough as you need to curtail government spending growth which I think is a key driver of inflation in Nigeria. The thinking, as with low interest rates, that you can stimulate growth through government spending which we have seen implemented since 2015 has always been flawed. The late economist, Rudi Dornbusch, touched on this in relation to Latin America: Again and again, Latin America has seen the populist scenario played to an unfortunate end. Upon gaining power, populist governments attempt to revive the economy through massive spending. After an initial recovery, inflation reemerges and the government responds with wage an price controls. Shortages, overvaluation, burgeoning deficits, and capital flight soon precipitate economic crisis, with a subsequent collapse of the populist regime. https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/macroeconomics-populism-latin-america Don't claim that Nigeria is exceptional. 3 Likes 2 Shares |
Politics / Re: CBN’s 22.5% Interest Rate Will Worsen Economic Situation – Peter Obi by 4Play(m): 2:25pm On Feb 29 |
Very disappointingly ignorant comments from Peter Obi. Maybe he wants to oppose everything the government does for the sake of it. Expansionary monetary policy including rapid increases in the money supply and negative real rates (the difference between inflation rate and MPR) is one of the main drivers of inflation and currency depreciation in Nigeria. 2 Likes 1 Share |
Politics / Re: Wale Edun's Plans To Improve The Nigerian Economy by 4Play(m): 10:40am On Feb 24 |
Collaborating with CBN by increasing interest rates to attract FPI. I find this to be short-sighted if attracting hot money is the perceived benefit of raising interest rates and not the reduction of inflation, & FDI. Also, our real interest rates are still negative, so how will this work? ❌ Increasing interest rates is vital as a way to cool inflation as you can't fight inflation with interest rates which are below the rate of inflation. Attracting portfolio inflows would be an added bonus. In addition, they need to curb government spending and money supply growth as this is fueling inflation and Naira depreciation. Increasing the supply of naira leads to increased demand for dollars. So it's not so much about directing spending to the poor (if they can do that, great) but curbing the growth in government spending. PS: Ultimately, they need a quick and sizeable injection of forex which they can source from the IMF. 9 Likes |
Politics / Re: Nigeria’s Money Supply Hits New All-Time High Of ₦93.72 Trillion In January 2024 by 4Play(m): 8:58am On Feb 24 |
IamAtikulate: If they wanted to know what are the key drivers of inflation and Naira depreciation, this money supply growth is one of the major causes. Here is what an article on hyperinflation has to say about a characteristic of this phenomenon: By and large, these episodes all occurred because of a rapid (or accelerating) increase in the supply of money that wasn't matched by a corresponding increase in goods and services. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2012/08/21/great-hyperinflation-episodes-in-history-and-what-they-tell-us-about-the-fed/ Production of goods and services, nor the availability of the dollar, hasn't suddenly increased in Nigeria so this money supply growth has to be "accommodated" through higher prices for the same goods and services and for the dollar (lower naira value). |
Politics / Re: Please What's Causing The Rise In Cement Price? by 4Play(m): 10:58am On Feb 17 |
Who remembers this thread? https://www.nairaland.com/7842393/bua-moves-crash-cement-price Apparently, the cement price rise problem was resolved in September 2023: Those Igbos brains is fvcked up. |
Politics / Re: Group Of Primary School Students Came Out Asking Thunder To Strike On Tinubu by 4Play(m): 10:54am On Feb 17 |
AntiZikist: So in your mind you are a winner? This sort of imbecility should be studied by PhD students in the future. You are bragging online when many of your relatives are struggling to make ends meet. 2 Likes |
Health / Nigerian Nurses In The UK Embroiled In Qualification Scandal by 4Play(m): 10:07am On Feb 14 |
NHS nurses being investigated for ‘industrial-scale’ qualifications fraud https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/feb/14/nhs-nurses-being-investigated-for-industrial-scale-qualifications 6 Likes 1 Share
|
Politics / Re: How Nigeria’s Economy Nosedived In 10 Years by 4Play(m): 5:33pm On Feb 11 |
The average figure for 2014 was 8.1 percent. The inflation figure was 8 percent in January and ended with 8 percent. While in 2015, the average inflation rate was 9.01 percent with 8.2 percent recorded in January and ended in December with 9.55 percent. I remember posting multiple times in 2015 and 2016 about this. The crazy expansion in government spending from 2015 onwards in the mistaken belief that it will stimulate the economy was very wrong-headed. You can't stimulate your way out of a forex scarcity which Nigeria began to experience from the 2nd half of 2014. To make matters worse, they put in place a fixed exchange rate system which deterred forex inflows and distorted the market even more. 36 Likes 3 Shares |
Health / Re: Nigerians Turn To Traditional Healers As Prices Of Drugs Go Out Of Reach by 4Play(m): 2:22pm On Feb 11 |
christejames: See below: Catapault: 6 Likes |
Foreign Affairs / Re: African Countries Should Be Recolonised Because Their Leaders Are Corrupt – Erik by 4Play(m): 2:13pm On Feb 11 |
Our leaders are incompetent and corrupt and in large part are a reflection of the kind of people we are. But what we are going through is part of the learning process. After many missteps, we learn the hard way what mistakes to avoid. |
Politics / Re: Why Blame Tinubu For Inflation When Obi Vowed To End Subsidy “On Day One”? by 4Play(m): 10:52am On Feb 11 |
The OP's question only makes sense if you believe that all that is driving inflation is subsidy. In reality, inflation is also driven by the scale of the increase in government spending (FG budget went from N21 trillion in 2023, from N4.5 trillion in 2015, to N28 trillion budgeted for 2024). The increase in naira supply drives demand for dollars. Monetary policy is also too loose, CBN interest rates should not be below the rate of inflation. But when you have a CBN governor appointed partly because he was part of Tinubu's inner circle, it erodes the independence of the central bank which is necessary to restore central bank credibility. Loose monetary policy loosens the appeal of holding naira as inflation erodes the value and you can't get interest rates that offsets inflation. Psychology also drives forex markets and electing an APC stalwart who has been making noise in the past about spending to drive growth (including suggesting printing naira) and who has a chequered personal history (to put it mildly) does a lot to cement the perception that Nigeria is not turning a new leaf and will sustain with its reputation as a corruption-riddled kakistocracy. All 3 candidates would have reduced subsidy as there was no choice given the fiscal hole the country has dug itself into. Even Buhari, if he was elected to a 3rd term, would have done same. But by failing to tackle all the other issues I have referred to as we are witnessing today, it's made the situation a lot worse. 3 Likes 1 Share |
Politics / Re: Respite For Businesses As ‘sit-at-home’ In S/east Fades by 4Play(m): 9:59am On Feb 11 |
IPOB's appeal lay in the perception that they were a means of counteracting the perceived threat of Fulanis. With Buhari no longer in power, their appeal has diminished. The sort of people who filled the ranks of IPOB (poorly educated young men) were indoctrinated to resent the Muslim north. |
Politics / Re: Citizens Groan As Rice Hits N77,000 Per Bag by 4Play(m): 9:30am On Feb 11 |
The official inflation figure from the National Bureau Statistics is a lie. My guess is that inflation has gone far higher than captured in the data as naira depreciation gathered pace amplified by the reduction of fuel subsidy. 1 Like |
Politics / Re: Hunger Protests: Why Tinubu Can’t Govern Like Buhari By Farooq A. Kperogi by 4Play(m): 3:11pm On Feb 10 |
Everydaylove: This is one of the things that annoys me with the Tinubu fan club who place blame on Buhari for today's situation. Without Tinubu's staunch support for the 8 years of Buhari's regime and before, Buhari would not have wreaked the havoc he did. To now suggest that he should be given more time to clean up Buhari's mess beggars belief. He traded his countrymen's well being, literally their lives, for his own personal ambition to be president. One cannot separate today's circumstances from the people who facilitated it. 3 Likes 1 Share |
Politics / Re: Hunger Protests: Why Tinubu Can’t Govern Like Buhari By Farooq A. Kperogi by 4Play(m): 3:04pm On Feb 10 |
ivolt: Being CBN governor at a time of rapidly increasing oil prices, which comes with increasing forex inflow, is different from being governor at a time of oil prices being stagnant or falling and your predecessor ran forex reserves low and printed naira to support government spending. It's an entirely different set of circumstances. Oil prices were lower during OBJ's era than now but that is irrelevant. What matters is that they were much higher, and rapidly increasing, compared to the preceding 2 decades. That's part of why things felt better for Nigerians. 1 Like |
Politics / Re: To Those Guys Who Said Buhari Will Be Better Than Tinubu by 4Play(m): 11:53am On Feb 10 |
The economic situation today is a byproduct of decades of misgovernance. That being said, Buhari made things worse in a way that meant whoever was his successor was going to oversee severe economic challenges. I think where Tinubu, and his economic team, have gone wrong is that he was part of a school of thought that still believes that the a key policy response to Nigeria's economic doldrums is a variety of monetary and fiscal stimuluses. Government spending has been escalating rapidly since 2015. But an increase in naira supply circulating in the economy, leads to an increase in dollar demand. The start of Buhari's government in 2015 led to a massive increase in fiscal spending. Whilst GEJ's last budget was circa N4.5 trillion, Buhari's 2016 budget was N6 trillion. By 2018, the FG budgeted a spend of N9 trillion, 2023 was N21 trillion, Tinubu's 2024 budget was for N28 trillion. My figures may not be exact but they reflect the general trend. To accommodate all this spending, the CBN has had to run loose monetary policy keeping interest rates low to enable the government keep borrowing. Where the bond markets have proved insufficient, the CBN has stepped in to lend to support government spending (effectively printing naira). Recall that Tinubu has been a keen advocate of more government spending to support growth: https://punchng.com/coronavirus-print-more-naira-notes-tinubu-tells-fg/. Some people have defended all this spending by saying the absolute level of government spending as a percentage of the economy is low compared to other countries. Whilst that is true, it is the "delta", the change in the rate of spending, that is the problem. If, for instance, you increase government spending almost 700% in about 8 years, at a time your main sources of revenue and forex inflow which is oil, is falling in value, you are injecting more naira into the economy to chase even scarcer dollars. Contrast this with the policy response in 2015, credit to Iweala, when the 2015 budget was N4.5 trillion, as opposed to the N5 trillion 2014 budget. This was in recognition that the government's key revenue source, oil, was falling in value. That being said, GEJ, at least pre-Iweala coming in in August 2011, oversaw a massive increase in spending which enabled him win the 2011 elections. You see, in Nigeria, the key to political popularity is spending. By the way, this is what makes Peter Obi's popularity ironic especially as he was running as a candidate of the Labour party. Most who support him would have hated his policies but assuming he maintained his tendency as Anambra governor to exercise fiscal restraint if he was president, it would have helped significantly ameliorate the havoc the expansion of naira supply is causing. With a tightening of fiscal and monetary policy, Nigeria should seek a significant forex injection in the form of an IMF (or whoever else can provide large dollar-denominated lending) loan. This will provide the CBN ammunition to stabilise the exchange rate which is in a freefall. These solutions will also curtail inflation. By the way, it is absolutely paramount that if you are taking a large forex loan, that you restrain your naira spending otherwise you end up with a large forex debt that would, in future, simply add to dollar demand. 1 Like |
Politics / Re: APC Supporters What Exactly Is Your Problem. Not Seen A More STUPID Group by 4Play(m): 2:21pm On Feb 01 |
It actually makes "logical" sense to be anti-Igbo as the key to uniting people is to identify a common enemy. Think of IPOB and their nemesis: Fulani herdsmen. The idea that you need to suspend the use of your faculties and be very fearful of some nemesis out to get you is at the heart of most political propaganda campaigns. I suspect that the more dire the economic and security situation gets, the more you will see divide and rule tactics used resulting in more ethnicism. If things weren't dire and APC had lots of actual and tangible achievements to point to, then they could leverage these for support. Lacking evidence of positive impacts on the general public's lives, the only way to sustain support has to be through finding bogeymen via tribalism. 1 Like |
Politics / Re: How Is It That Tinubu Cannot Halt Naira Downward Slide? by 4Play(m): 6:36pm On Jan 28 |
nairalanda1: Subsidy has not gone though. |
Business / Re: Huge Losses For Speculators As Dollars Crashed To #805 At Black Market by 4Play(m): 10:06am On Jan 28 |
The "good old days" of N800 to 1USD. |
Politics / Re: Why It Is Dangerous To Speculate On NGN/USD by 4Play(m): 10:05am On Jan 28 |
Birdbyrde440: With inflation as high as it is, the general trend for naira is downwards. You might have some temporary spikes in naira value whenever they complete one of these external loan deals but it's not going to be long lasting unless the policymakers tighten monetary policy (higher CBN interest rates) and tighten fiscal policy (a concerted effort by the FG to curb spending). Nigerians are constantly deceived/manipulated with hope. Go back to July/August when the black market rate was N850 to $1, people were being told that any minute now, the naira will rally and those holding dollars will be severely punished. Check out this thread in August for instance: https://www.nairaland.com/7805012/huge-losses-speculators-dollars-crashed. PS: Another hopium thread in November 2023: https://www.nairaland.com/7899830/nigeria-happening-those-hoarding-dollars. Much of Nigerian politics is about maintaining support by feeding your supporters a steady diet of hope. I have seen this cycle repeat itself for decades. |
Business / Re: Banks Lead Nigerian Stocks to World’s Second-Best Gains in 2024 by 4Play(m): 8:17pm On Jan 12 |
Same as before. With naira depreciation and high inflation, where should local investors put their money? I posted this before. I don't know if you are aware that Nigerian equity markets were one of the world's best performing in 2020 and 2022, as well as posting a decent performance in 2021. https://www.thecable.ng/nse-ranked-2020-best-performing-stock-market https://tribuneonlineng.com/nigerian-equities-market-gains-n5-7trn-to-rank-4th-globally/ https://businessday.ng/markets/article/nigerias-stock-market-ends-year-2021-with-positive-return-of-6-7/ 2 Likes |
Politics / Re: Tinubu Can’t Fix In 6 Months What Buhari Failed At In 8 Years – Shehu Sani by 4Play(m): 1:20pm On Dec 30, 2023 |
There is no clear cut government plan to tackle the security situation which is dire. They would need a massive recruitment and equipment investment plan to boost the capacity of the military and police. This will cost a lot of money and they need to work out how to fund this. So far, no sign of urgency from this government or from the last 2 presidents. |
Politics / Re: Dangote Refinery Receives Third Shipment by 4Play(m): 7:49pm On Dec 28, 2023 |
coleon: I don't know much about the crude oil supply arrangements to the refinery but I doubt the refinery will make much difference to Nigeria's currency depreciation issues which I think is driven by high inflation and lack of general confidence in the economy. Supposing supply is via NNPC to the refinery, wouldn't that mean forgone oil export dollars? In other words, oil that could have been exported for forex dollars is simply diverted to a refinery in Lagos leading to less forex inflow into Nigeria. The thinking is that lower import of refined crude will curb forex outflow/dollar demand. That is true. However, I suspect that much of the refinery's revenue will find its way out of the country as Dangote, just as is the case with the cement business and indeed many Nigerians/businesses, prefer to maintain financial assets offshore in more stable currencies like the dollar or Euro. The net effect on naira depreciation will be close to zero. What's driving the optimism is Nigerians desperate tendency to seek for magic/easy solutions to complex problems. Next year, they will be looking for other sources of optimism after the hullabaloo about the refinery comes to nothing. 3 Likes 1 Share |
Politics / Re: 13 States Plan Fresh N2.3tn Borrowing by 4Play(m): 1:02pm On Dec 26, 2023 |
yoruboid: It seems apparent to me that this Abia governor is committing the typical Naija/African policy failure of reckless borrowing rationalised by references to infrastructural demands. The excuse often used for reckless borrowing - that there is a massive infrastructural deficit - is akin to overdosing on iron tablets because you realise you have iron-deficiency anaemia. Much of this borrowing makes it impossible to maintain or invest in infrastructure in the long-run (after the present governor's tenure has expired) due to the unsustainability of the debt load which imposes unavoidable fiscal costs/constraints on future governments. Infrastructure investment has to be sustainable - implemented over a long cycle - without causing fiscal crisis which could distort monetary/fiscal policy. See how the CBN ended up financing government borrowing which added to the inflation and Naira debacle Think of Nigeria in the 1970s, all the infrastructure investments - sea and airports, electrical projects, road networks etc - was still followed by economic contraction in the 1980s that was worse than that experienced by many war-ravaged countries and which only ended when China's entry into the WTO in 2000 helped fuel a commodities (including oil) boom afterwards starting in OBJ's era. It is the one way in which the rather much overhyped Peter Obi stood out from others. That he did not succumb to the typical Naija mentality of erecting financially unsustainable infrastructure projects which could be used for bragging rights. 1 Like 1 Share |
Politics / Re: Is Dozy Mmobuosi A Fraud? by 4Play(m): 7:49am On Dec 22, 2023 |
Update on this story: A Nigerian businessman who appeared to be closing in on a takeover of the Premier League football club Sheffield United is being sued by the US financial watchdog for a fraud, in which he is alleged to have faked documents and made up companies out of “thin air”. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/dec/19/businessman-tried-buy-sheffield-united-accused-elaborate-dozy-mmobuosi?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other 1 Like 1 Share |
Politics / Re: Moody's Upgrades Economic Outlook On Nigeria To Positive - Reuters by 4Play(m): 10:56am On Dec 10, 2023 |
In late 2021, Moody's and S&P upgraded Nigeria's outlook to positive: Global leading rating agency, Standard & Poor’s has affirmed Nigeria’s sovereign credit rating at B+ and revised its outlook from negative to stable. https://www.arise.tv/s-and-p-global-revises-nigerias-sovereign-credit-rating-to-positive-from-negative/ |
Politics / Re: Tinubu’s First 6 Months: FG, States Spend Hugely, Citizenry Not Feeling Impact by 4Play(m): 8:06am On Dec 02, 2023 |
Compare the amounts shared recently to the same figure in 2015 and you will see that spending in naira terms has doubled at least. The problem is partly that the purchasing value of naira has severely declined in the last 9 years as can be seen converting these sums to the dollar. Adjusted for inflation/depreciation, spending has gone down. https://www.channelstv.com/2015/06/23/faac-fg-states-lgs-share-n409-3-billion/ https://dailypost.ng/2015/08/27/faac-fg-states-lgs-share-n511-8bn-for-july/ |
Politics / Re: Nigeria Is Happening To Those Who Are Hoarding Dollars. by 4Play(m): 12:44pm On Nov 04, 2023 |
We have been through this journey multiple times starting from when $1 exchanged for 70 kobo. The multi-decade collapse in the naira's value does not happen in a straight line. You have appreciation in naira which is hailed by the government and their supporters but these naira appreciations turn out to be brief as the long-term trend continues. Here are examples of articles written regarding naira appreciation in the last few years alone: https://www.nairaland.com/7730375/naira-appreciate-settle-n600-1 https://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/12/naira-appreciates-over-dollar-by-n1-at-parallel-market/ https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/08/naira-appreciates-n368-parallel-market/ https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/12/naira-appreciated-30-3-dollar-10-months/amp/ https://www.legit.ng/business-economy/money/1512144-naira-ends-2022-a-positive-days-straight-losses-dollar/ Nigeria/Nigerians have a well-embedded expectation that inflation will continue to run high and a general distrust of the economy/political leaders/institutions. As long as this remains the case (I expect it will), then the naira will continue falling. The fact that people are now celebrating naira exchanging for circa N900 to the $1 when it was exchanging for tells you a lot about how easily it is to sell hope to many, especially if the politician they're supporting is from their tribe. Nigerians love to clutch on to hope, that's why religion thrives in Nigeria. Particularly for the "Ronu" supporters confronted with myriad examples of living conditions getting worse under their tribesman, a little bit of something to hold on to and lavish praise on their "son" gets them giddy until reality sets in and they move on to the next source of hope. 2 Likes |
Politics / Re: Nigeria Is Not Broke, It’s Political Elites That Are “Broque” By Farooq Kperogi by 4Play(m): 9:30am On Oct 28, 2023 |
Nigeria is tragically broke. That the political class continues to lavish spending on themselves compounds the tragedy. In some of the poorest countries, whether Somalia or Afghanistan, corruption is still rampant. See for instance: https://qz.com/somalia-is-the-most-corrupt-country-in-the-world-1850063626 Acknowledging that a country is broke is not a minor debating point but an important juncture to begin to tackle it. If you say Nigeria is not broke because politicians are buying SUVs for themselves, it makes it impossible to balance the budget and curtail inflation. More damage is done by failing to spend within the limits a country's finances allows. 3 Likes 1 Share |
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (of 277 pages)
(Go Up)
Sections: politics (1) business autos (1) jobs (1) career education (1) romance computers phones travel sports fashion health religion celebs tv-movies music-radio literature webmasters programming techmarket Links: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) Nairaland - Copyright © 2005 - 2024 Oluwaseun Osewa. All rights reserved. See How To Advertise. 116 |