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Crime / Abusive Husband Killed Wife With Skateboard by 4Play(m): 2:02pm On Apr 25
An abusive husband beat his wife to death with their son's skateboard while police outside waited for permission to enter from superiors.

Officers heard 'a number of bangs' inside the house which Olubunmi Abodunde had gone into, despite bail conditions imposed the day before that banned him from the property following another violent episode.

When they finally entered 25 minutes later, they found Taiwo Abodunde, 41, with her 'skull smashed in'.

Abodunde, 48, who had been repeatedly investigated by Suffolk Police about domestic violence, was due to go on trial for murder but changed his plea to guilty yesterday after a jury had been sworn in.

Judge Martyn Levett, sitting at Ipswich Crown Court, warned him the only possible sentence was life imprisonment.

Officers heard 'a number of bangs' inside the house which Olubunmi Abodunde had gone into, despite bail conditions imposed the day before that banned him from the property following another violent episode.

Abodunde had a history of jealousy and suspicion and accused his wife of having affairs. He had been investigated by police a number of times over alleged domestic violence incidents before his wife death.

He was arrested on April 27 last year when police arrived at the couple's home in Newmarket, Suffolk, and found Mrs Abodunde with a split lip.

Later that day he was freed on police bail with a condition that he stayed away from the marital home and didn't approach his wife.

But after working a night shift at Tesco, he went home just after 9am to allegedly pick up his mobile phone.

Two officers arrived at 9.20am to take a statement from Mrs Abodunde about the previous night's incident and heard repeated banging noises inside.

But it wasn't until 9.55am that they forced their way in after getting approval from senior officers and found Mrs Abodunde 'obviously dead' near the front door.

A post-mortem examination later showed she had been throttled until she fell unconscious, then stamped on until her ribs were broken, before her husband used the skateboard to finish her off. The blows were so violent that the skateboard was damaged.

Prosecutor Simon Spence KC told the court the banging officers heard was likely to have been Abodunde continuing to attack his wife after she was unconscious or dead.

During the hearing, the court heard the couple, who had three children, arrived in the UK from Nigeria in 2022.

As well as clashes over the alleged affairs, there were also arguments about bills.

Mrs Abodunde had a job as a care home assistant in Cambridge but her husband, who had trained as a civil engineer, was unable to find work in his profession and took shifts at Tesco and Wickes.

After his arrest for the murder, Abodunde was taken to hospital 'because he appeared to have some sort of mental episode'.

He later claimed in a statement to police he had acted in self-defence, saying: 'My wife has subjected me to physical abuse for a number of years.

'On November 28, we got into an argument. She ran at me with a knife, I grabbed the knife and cut my hand. I was defending myself.'

But the court heard while he did have an injury to his hand, there wasn't a knife near his wife's body.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13349449/Abusive-husband-beat-wife-death-skateboard.html

2 Likes 1 Share

Politics / Re: Filling Stations Are Selling Petrol At N110: Why? by 4Play(m): 1:57pm On Mar 10
There were at least 2 comments on that first page speaking highly of Venezuela. This was in 2012.

Look what happened to Venezuela shortly after and what is happening to Nigeria now:

Venezuela is introducing economic reforms including new banknotes that lop five zeros off its fast-depreciating currency as the country battles hyperinflation.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/20/venezuela-bolivars-hyperinflation-banknotes
Business / Re: Countries Where Binance Is Banned, Restricted (Full List) by 4Play(m): 2:08pm On Mar 02
Binance is banned in those countries to protect customers from excessive losses due to crypto volatility and scams. Nigeria is taking action against Binance to use it as excuse in a blame game regarding naira's collapse.

1 Like

Politics / Re: The Irrationality Of The CBN Interest Rate Hike by 4Play(m): 9:22am On Mar 01
DevilsEqual:



Do u guys ven follow the updates and Stats from MBS??
We've had less import in the last 9months and even gained more from Exports toward the last quater of 2023 yet u think this sudden 100000% increase in importation is the only way out

U talk as if Nigeria hasnt been import-dependent since ages yet $ never rose to this level


I think most of u who think "Textbook Jargon" wouldnt work here in Nigeria actually think theories are being passed with no proper tests, arguement, reality checks and counter arguments

U prolly failed Economics in your waec and Neco...Thank Goodness, U didnt need it to advance your University education

This argument, that Nigeria is exceptional and so standard or "textbook" economic theories don't work in Nigeria is an often trotted out claim that has only served to justify some of the most bone-headed policies you will ever see.

Nigeria is not exceptional when it comes to the understanding that if central bank interest rates are way below the rate of inflation, the rate of inflation cannot be curtailed. If these people disagree, please give us examples of where significant and protracted high inflation was resolved without raising rates.

Of course, businesses need low interest rates. But if consumers are suffering from inflation and the currency is losing value, businesses are not going to invest. Where were the business investments when rates were lower?

In this environment, if I run a business and you lend me money at low interest rates, the best returns I can make would be gained by finding a way to convert my money into dollars and waiting a few years for naira to lose value to the dollar and I can pay back the naira denominated loan.

The reality is that low interest rates makes it very profitable to swap naira for dollars. If you are a saver in naira, your savings lose value and is not offset by the interest rates you get on your savings. You cannot stimulate your economy out of an inflation crisis.

I also agree that increasing rates is not enough as you need to curtail government spending growth which I think is a key driver of inflation in Nigeria. The thinking, as with low interest rates, that you can stimulate growth through government spending which we have seen implemented since 2015 has always been flawed. The late economist, Rudi Dornbusch, touched on this in relation to Latin America:

Again and again, Latin America has seen the populist scenario played to an unfortunate end. Upon gaining power, populist governments attempt to revive the economy through massive spending. After an initial recovery, inflation reemerges and the government responds with wage an price controls. Shortages, overvaluation, burgeoning deficits, and capital flight soon precipitate economic crisis, with a subsequent collapse of the populist regime.

https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/macroeconomics-populism-latin-america

Don't claim that Nigeria is exceptional.

3 Likes 2 Shares

Politics / Re: CBN’s 22.5% Interest Rate Will Worsen Economic Situation – Peter Obi by 4Play(m): 2:25pm On Feb 29
Very disappointingly ignorant comments from Peter Obi. Maybe he wants to oppose everything the government does for the sake of it.

Expansionary monetary policy including rapid increases in the money supply and negative real rates (the difference between inflation rate and MPR) is one of the main drivers of inflation and currency depreciation in Nigeria.

2 Likes 1 Share

Politics / Re: Wale Edun's Plans To Improve The Nigerian Economy by 4Play(m): 10:40am On Feb 24
Collaborating with CBN by increasing interest rates to attract FPI. I find this to be short-sighted if attracting hot money is the perceived benefit of raising interest rates and not the reduction of inflation, & FDI. Also, our real interest rates are still negative, so how will this work? ❌

Increasing interest rates is vital as a way to cool inflation as you can't fight inflation with interest rates which are below the rate of inflation. Attracting portfolio inflows would be an added bonus.


In addition, they need to curb government spending and money supply growth as this is fueling inflation and Naira depreciation. Increasing the supply of naira leads to increased demand for dollars.

So it's not so much about directing spending to the poor (if they can do that, great) but curbing the growth in government spending.

PS: Ultimately, they need a quick and sizeable injection of forex which they can source from the IMF.

9 Likes

Politics / Re: Nigeria’s Money Supply Hits New All-Time High Of ₦93.72 Trillion In January 2024 by 4Play(m): 8:58am On Feb 24
IamAtikulate:

This one don go copy Economics text book.

increasing Ms stimulates spending which exerts inflationary pressure on the economy, consequently leading to demand-pulled inflation. It's a pity that Economics textbook you copied didn't tell you that.

If they wanted to know what are the key drivers of inflation and Naira depreciation, this money supply growth is one of the major causes.

Here is what an article on hyperinflation has to say about a characteristic of this phenomenon:

By and large, these episodes all occurred because of a rapid (or accelerating) increase in the supply of money that wasn't matched by a corresponding increase in goods and services.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2012/08/21/great-hyperinflation-episodes-in-history-and-what-they-tell-us-about-the-fed/

Production of goods and services, nor the availability of the dollar, hasn't suddenly increased in Nigeria so this money supply growth has to be "accommodated" through higher prices for the same goods and services and for the dollar (lower naira value).
Politics / Re: Please What's Causing The Rise In Cement Price? by 4Play(m): 10:58am On Feb 17
Who remembers this thread? https://www.nairaland.com/7842393/bua-moves-crash-cement-price

Apparently, the cement price rise problem was resolved in September 2023:

Those Igbos brains is fvcked up.
They hate tinubu
They hate dangote


Innoson is an "angel" 😂
Perhaps they would say tinubu should had visited innoson instead😂

Imagine people continually wailing because of the high price of cement and now that something had been done about it are still unhappy because tinubu was the man to get it right and not their failure Obi the Pandora thief 😂🏃
Politics / Re: Group Of Primary School Students Came Out Asking Thunder To Strike On Tinubu by 4Play(m): 10:54am On Feb 17
AntiZikist:


You have 7 plus years to go.


After which you will begin drag Aboki again.


Nothing for you sore losers

So in your mind you are a winner? This sort of imbecility should be studied by PhD students in the future.

You are bragging online when many of your relatives are struggling to make ends meet.

2 Likes

Health / Nigerian Nurses In The UK Embroiled In Qualification Scandal by 4Play(m): 10:07am On Feb 14
NHS nurses being investigated for ‘industrial-scale’ qualifications fraud

Scam involves more than 700 healthcare workers who used proxies to pass test in Nigeria enabling them to work in the UK

Hundreds of frontline NHS staff are treating patients despite being under investigation for their part in an alleged “industrial-scale” qualifications fraud.

More than 700 nurses are caught up in a potential scandal, which a former head of the Royal College of Nursing said could put NHS patients at risk.

The scam allegedly involves proxies impersonating nurses and taking a key test in Nigeria, which must be passed for them to become registered and allowed to work in the UK.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/feb/14/nhs-nurses-being-investigated-for-industrial-scale-qualifications

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Politics / Re: How Nigeria’s Economy Nosedived In 10 Years by 4Play(m): 5:33pm On Feb 11
The average figure for 2014 was 8.1 percent. The inflation figure was 8 percent in January and ended with 8 percent. While in 2015, the average inflation rate was 9.01 percent with 8.2 percent recorded in January and ended in December with 9.55 percent.

In 2016, the country could no longer maintain the single digit inflation rate with the figure jumping to 15.6 percent on average. It entered the year with 9.62 percent and ended it with 18.55 percent.

I remember posting multiple times in 2015 and 2016 about this. The crazy expansion in government spending from 2015 onwards in the mistaken belief that it will stimulate the economy was very wrong-headed. You can't stimulate your way out of a forex scarcity which Nigeria began to experience from the 2nd half of 2014. To make matters worse, they put in place a fixed exchange rate system which deterred forex inflows and distorted the market even more.

36 Likes 3 Shares

Health / Re: Nigerians Turn To Traditional Healers As Prices Of Drugs Go Out Of Reach by 4Play(m): 2:22pm On Feb 11
christejames:
APC will add this as an achievement!

Growth of herbal medicine practitioners shocked

See below:

Catapault:
FANTASTIC NEWS.

This is why they say “In every cloud there is a silver lining”.

If it takes poverty and inflation to force us to look inwards as a people instead of depending on foreigners for everything including medicine, like some lost people with no heritage, then more grease to their elbows.

What they MUST do now is standardise, brand, and package the medicine in the right way and market them effectively.

Great university courses in Traditional African Medicine should be established up to doctorate level.

I want to see university-trained DOCTORS of Traditional Nigerian Medicine.

Excellent stuff.

6 Likes

Foreign Affairs / Re: African Countries Should Be Recolonised Because Their Leaders Are Corrupt – Erik by 4Play(m): 2:13pm On Feb 11
Our leaders are incompetent and corrupt and in large part are a reflection of the kind of people we are.

But what we are going through is part of the learning process. After many missteps, we learn the hard way what mistakes to avoid.
Politics / Re: Why Blame Tinubu For Inflation When Obi Vowed To End Subsidy “On Day One”? by 4Play(m): 10:52am On Feb 11
The OP's question only makes sense if you believe that all that is driving inflation is subsidy.

In reality, inflation is also driven by the scale of the increase in government spending (FG budget went from N21 trillion in 2023, from N4.5 trillion in 2015, to N28 trillion budgeted for 2024). The increase in naira supply drives demand for dollars.

Monetary policy is also too loose, CBN interest rates should not be below the rate of inflation. But when you have a CBN governor appointed partly because he was part of Tinubu's inner circle, it erodes the independence of the central bank which is necessary to restore central bank credibility. Loose monetary policy loosens the appeal of holding naira as inflation erodes the value and you can't get interest rates that offsets
inflation.

Psychology also drives forex markets and electing an APC stalwart who has been making noise in the past about spending to drive growth (including suggesting printing naira) and who has a chequered personal history (to put it mildly) does a lot to cement the perception that Nigeria is not turning a new leaf and will sustain with its reputation as a corruption-riddled kakistocracy.

All 3 candidates would have reduced subsidy as there was no choice given the fiscal hole the country has dug itself into. Even Buhari, if he was elected to a 3rd term, would have done same. But by failing to tackle all the other issues I have referred to as we are witnessing today, it's made the situation a lot worse.

3 Likes 1 Share

Politics / Re: Respite For Businesses As ‘sit-at-home’ In S/east Fades by 4Play(m): 9:59am On Feb 11
IPOB's appeal lay in the perception that they were a means of counteracting the perceived threat of Fulanis. With Buhari no longer in power, their appeal has diminished. The sort of people who filled the ranks of IPOB (poorly educated young men) were indoctrinated to resent the Muslim north.
Politics / Re: Citizens Groan As Rice Hits N77,000 Per Bag by 4Play(m): 9:30am On Feb 11
The official inflation figure from the National Bureau Statistics is a lie. My guess is that inflation has gone far higher than captured in the data as naira depreciation gathered pace amplified by the reduction of fuel subsidy.

1 Like

Politics / Re: Hunger Protests: Why Tinubu Can’t Govern Like Buhari By Farooq A. Kperogi by 4Play(m): 3:11pm On Feb 10
Everydaylove:
Both Buhari and Tinubu have wrecked this country. He had his personal ambition since but not for the betterment of the people. I only blamed the braindead mumu supporters Tinubu used to achieve his selfish goal.

This is one of the things that annoys me with the Tinubu fan club who place blame on Buhari for today's situation. Without Tinubu's staunch support for the 8 years of Buhari's regime and before, Buhari would not have wreaked the havoc he did. To now suggest that he should be given more time to clean up Buhari's mess beggars belief. He traded his countrymen's well being, literally their lives, for his own personal ambition to be president. One cannot separate today's circumstances from the people who facilitated it.

3 Likes 1 Share

Politics / Re: Hunger Protests: Why Tinubu Can’t Govern Like Buhari By Farooq A. Kperogi by 4Play(m): 3:04pm On Feb 10
ivolt:

You guys continuously underestimate the value of financial prudence in economic management.

If you are right, Lamido Sanusi should have been the best CBN governor since
oil price was highest during his tenure.
But in real fact, the best CBN governors were the one in charge during the
lowest average oil price of 1999 to 2007. That is Joseph Oladele and Charles Soludo.
Joseph even managed to hit a 10% growth rate which is unmatched since then.

Nigeria's FDI at 1999 was about $1 billion and it increased to $6 billion in 2007.
If a 600% rise is not significant enough, you should remember that somebody actually took it from
4 billion dollars in 2015 to negative value by the end of 2022. Now, that's a record.


Before you ask, my criteria for best is based on external reserve accumulation, exchange rate control and economic growth rate.


Being CBN governor at a time of rapidly increasing oil prices, which comes with increasing forex inflow, is different from being governor at a time of oil prices being stagnant or falling and your predecessor ran forex reserves low and printed naira to support government spending. It's an entirely different set of circumstances.

Oil prices were lower during OBJ's era than now but that is irrelevant. What matters is that they were much higher, and rapidly increasing, compared to the preceding 2 decades. That's part of why things felt better for Nigerians.

1 Like

Politics / Re: To Those Guys Who Said Buhari Will Be Better Than Tinubu by 4Play(m): 11:53am On Feb 10
The economic situation today is a byproduct of decades of misgovernance. That being said, Buhari made things worse in a way that meant whoever was his successor was going to oversee severe economic challenges.

I think where Tinubu, and his economic team, have gone wrong is that he was part of a school of thought that still believes that the a key policy response to Nigeria's economic doldrums is a variety of monetary and fiscal stimuluses.

Government spending has been escalating rapidly since 2015. But an increase in naira supply circulating in the economy, leads to an increase in dollar demand. The start of Buhari's government in 2015 led to a massive increase in fiscal spending. Whilst GEJ's last budget was circa N4.5 trillion, Buhari's 2016 budget was N6 trillion. By 2018, the FG budgeted a spend of N9 trillion, 2023 was N21 trillion, Tinubu's 2024 budget was for N28 trillion. My figures may not be exact but they reflect the general trend.

To accommodate all this spending, the CBN has had to run loose monetary policy keeping interest rates low to enable the government keep borrowing. Where the bond markets have proved insufficient, the CBN has stepped in to lend to support government spending (effectively printing naira). Recall that Tinubu has been a keen advocate of more government spending to support growth: https://punchng.com/coronavirus-print-more-naira-notes-tinubu-tells-fg/.

Some people have defended all this spending by saying the absolute level of government spending as a percentage of the economy is low compared to other countries. Whilst that is true, it is the "delta", the change in the rate of spending, that is the problem. If, for instance, you increase government spending almost 700% in about 8 years, at a time your main sources of revenue and forex inflow which is oil, is falling in value, you are injecting more naira into the economy to chase even scarcer dollars.

Contrast this with the policy response in 2015, credit to Iweala, when the 2015 budget was N4.5 trillion, as opposed to the N5 trillion 2014 budget. This was in recognition that the government's key revenue source, oil, was falling in value. That being said, GEJ, at least pre-Iweala coming in in August 2011, oversaw a massive increase in spending which enabled him win the 2011 elections. You see, in Nigeria, the key to political popularity is spending.

By the way, this is what makes Peter Obi's popularity ironic especially as he was running as a candidate of the Labour party. Most who support him would have hated his policies but assuming he maintained his tendency as Anambra governor to exercise fiscal restraint if he was president, it would have helped significantly ameliorate the havoc the expansion of naira supply is causing.

With a tightening of fiscal and monetary policy, Nigeria should seek a significant forex injection in the form of an IMF (or whoever else can provide large dollar-denominated lending) loan. This will provide the CBN ammunition to stabilise the exchange rate which is in a freefall. These solutions will also curtail inflation. By the way, it is absolutely paramount that if you are taking a large forex loan, that you restrain your naira spending otherwise you end up with a large forex debt that would, in future, simply add to dollar demand.

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Politics / Re: APC Supporters What Exactly Is Your Problem. Not Seen A More STUPID Group by 4Play(m): 2:21pm On Feb 01
It actually makes "logical" sense to be anti-Igbo as the key to uniting people is to identify a common enemy. Think of IPOB and their nemesis: Fulani herdsmen. The idea that you need to suspend the use of your faculties and be very fearful of some nemesis out to get you is at the heart of most political propaganda campaigns.

I suspect that the more dire the economic and security situation gets, the more you will see divide and rule tactics used resulting in more ethnicism.

If things weren't dire and APC had lots of actual and tangible achievements to point to, then they could leverage these for support. Lacking evidence of positive impacts on the general public's lives, the only way to sustain support has to be through finding bogeymen via tribalism.

1 Like

Politics / Re: How Is It That Tinubu Cannot Halt Naira Downward Slide? by 4Play(m): 6:36pm On Jan 28
nairalanda1:


I really can't help you son.

You can call me APC supporter, but subsidy has to go, and things have to be sold at a profit.

If it makes you go gaga, so be it

Peace, TInubu worshipper. One day, APC and PDP would be kicked out...

Subsidy has not gone though.
Business / Re: Huge Losses For Speculators As Dollars Crashed To #805 At Black Market by 4Play(m): 10:06am On Jan 28
The "good old days" of N800 to 1USD.
Politics / Re: Why It Is Dangerous To Speculate On NGN/USD by 4Play(m): 10:05am On Jan 28
Birdbyrde440:


Who is "we"?

You think the average joe will source more money to keep buying $?
What if he bought with his last money?
Or sold his home based on your advice just to buy $ and you come and tell him to buy more, from where will he get the money?

With inflation as high as it is, the general trend for naira is downwards. You might have some temporary spikes in naira value whenever they complete one of these external loan deals but it's not going to be long lasting unless the policymakers tighten monetary policy (higher CBN interest rates) and tighten fiscal policy (a concerted effort by the FG to curb spending).

Nigerians are constantly deceived/manipulated with hope. Go back to July/August when the black market rate was N850 to $1, people were being told that any minute now, the naira will rally and those holding dollars will be severely punished. Check out this thread in August for instance: https://www.nairaland.com/7805012/huge-losses-speculators-dollars-crashed.

PS: Another hopium thread in November 2023: https://www.nairaland.com/7899830/nigeria-happening-those-hoarding-dollars.

Much of Nigerian politics is about maintaining support by feeding your supporters a steady diet of hope. I have seen this cycle repeat itself for decades.
Business / Re: Banks Lead Nigerian Stocks to World’s Second-Best Gains in 2024 by 4Play(m): 8:17pm On Jan 12
Same as before. With naira depreciation and high inflation, where should local investors put their money?

I posted this before. I don't know if you are aware that Nigerian equity markets were one of the world's best performing in 2020 and 2022, as well as posting a decent performance in 2021.

https://www.thecable.ng/nse-ranked-2020-best-performing-stock-market

https://tribuneonlineng.com/nigerian-equities-market-gains-n5-7trn-to-rank-4th-globally/

https://businessday.ng/markets/article/nigerias-stock-market-ends-year-2021-with-positive-return-of-6-7/

2 Likes

Politics / Re: Tinubu Can’t Fix In 6 Months What Buhari Failed At In 8 Years – Shehu Sani by 4Play(m): 1:20pm On Dec 30, 2023
There is no clear cut government plan to tackle the security situation which is dire. They would need a massive recruitment and equipment investment plan to boost the capacity of the military and police. This will cost a lot of money and they need to work out how to fund this. So far, no sign of urgency from this government or from the last 2 presidents.
Politics / Re: Dangote Refinery Receives Third Shipment by 4Play(m): 7:49pm On Dec 28, 2023
coleon:
There are still a lot of mystery around this crude supply to Dangote by shell. The global pricing for crude oil is denominated in USD hence why it's refered to as petrodollar. Now if the forward contract between Dangote and Shell is denominated in USD it then means Dangote will have to pay Shell in USD for the supply.
The only way Dangote will pay Shell in USD is if he sells to local petrol supplier also in USD which is why I am laughing at those thinking this arrangement will reduce pressure on FX.
My expectation is that Dangote will get her supply directly from NNPC and they can work out a way of making payments in NGN.
I suppose this is the reason the clueless NNPC MD already sent a disclaimer that nothing will change in the pricing of petrol.
I will be waiting till next year to watch and see how events unfold.

I don't know much about the crude oil supply arrangements to the refinery but I doubt the refinery will make much difference to Nigeria's currency depreciation issues which I think is driven by high inflation and lack of general confidence in the economy.

Supposing supply is via NNPC to the refinery, wouldn't that mean forgone oil export dollars? In other words, oil that could have been exported for forex dollars is simply diverted to a refinery in Lagos leading to less forex inflow into Nigeria.

The thinking is that lower import of refined crude will curb forex outflow/dollar demand. That is true. However, I suspect that much of the refinery's revenue will find its way out of the country as Dangote, just as is the case with the cement business and indeed many Nigerians/businesses, prefer to maintain financial assets offshore in more stable currencies like the dollar or Euro.

The net effect on naira depreciation will be close to zero. What's driving the optimism is Nigerians desperate tendency to seek for magic/easy solutions to complex problems. Next year, they will be looking for other sources of optimism after the hullabaloo about the refinery comes to nothing.

3 Likes 1 Share

Politics / Re: 13 States Plan Fresh N2.3tn Borrowing by 4Play(m): 1:02pm On Dec 26, 2023
yoruboid:
I laugh at those hailing Abia for its insane and ambitious borrowing

The same Abia spending N30bn on a 6km road

Capital projects are the biggest scams by Governments and that’s how they loot funds

It seems apparent to me that this Abia governor is committing the typical Naija/African policy failure of reckless borrowing rationalised by references to infrastructural demands.

The excuse often used for reckless borrowing - that there is a massive infrastructural deficit - is akin to overdosing on iron tablets because you realise you have iron-deficiency anaemia.

Much of this borrowing makes it impossible to maintain or invest in infrastructure in the long-run (after the present governor's tenure has expired) due to the unsustainability of the debt load which imposes unavoidable fiscal costs/constraints on future governments. Infrastructure investment has to be sustainable - implemented over a long cycle - without causing fiscal crisis which could distort monetary/fiscal policy. See how the CBN ended up financing government borrowing which added to the inflation and Naira debacle

Think of Nigeria in the 1970s, all the infrastructure investments - sea and airports, electrical projects, road networks etc - was still followed by economic contraction in the 1980s that was worse than that experienced by many war-ravaged countries and which only ended when China's entry into the WTO in 2000 helped fuel a commodities (including oil) boom afterwards starting in OBJ's era.

It is the one way in which the rather much overhyped Peter Obi stood out from others. That he did not succumb to the typical Naija mentality of erecting financially unsustainable infrastructure projects which could be used for bragging rights.

1 Like 1 Share

Politics / Re: Is Dozy Mmobuosi A Fraud? by 4Play(m): 7:49am On Dec 22, 2023
Update on this story:

A Nigerian businessman who appeared to be closing in on a takeover of the Premier League football club Sheffield United is being sued by the US financial watchdog for a fraud, in which he is alleged to have faked documents and made up companies out of “thin air”.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) said on Monday it had filed charges against Dozy Mmobuosi, claiming he inflated his companies’ financial performance by hundreds of millions of dollars to defraud investors.

The regulator filed its claim against Mmobuosi personally, and his company Tingo Group, which is listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange, and two related companies, Tingo International Holdings and Agri-Fintech Holdings.

The regulator alleges Mmobuosi orchestrated a “staggering” fraud the roots of which date back years.

In a court filing, the SEC said the fraud related mostly to Tingo Mobile, a private Nigerian company Mmobuosi founded that purportedly sourced and supplied mobile handsets and related services to farmers in Nigeria.

It claimed Mmobuosi created fake bank statements and forged supporting documents to give the impression that Tingo Mobile was a “thriving” business worth more than $1bn, when in fact it had “no meaningful customers or operations and about $15 in its bank account”.

He allegedly engineered the sale of Tingo Mobile from Agri-Fintech to Nasdaq-listed Tingo Group in an all-share merger, meaning the fake revenues were incorporated into the new company.

He then repeated the trick with the sale of Tingo Foods, described as an “elaborate fiction”, to Tingo Group for $204m earlier this year.

“Mmobuosi and the entities he controls have fraudulently obtained hundreds of millions in money or property through these schemes,” the SEC said in a statement.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/dec/19/businessman-tried-buy-sheffield-united-accused-elaborate-dozy-mmobuosi?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

1 Like 1 Share

Politics / Re: Moody's Upgrades Economic Outlook On Nigeria To Positive - Reuters by 4Play(m): 10:56am On Dec 10, 2023
In late 2021, Moody's and S&P upgraded Nigeria's outlook to positive:
Global leading rating agency, Standard & Poor’s has affirmed Nigeria’s sovereign credit rating at B+ and revised its outlook from negative to stable.

This comes about a week after another rating firm, Moody’s Investor Services changed its outlook on Nigeria’s economy to Stable from Negative.

In a statement released today, U.S. based Standard & Poor’s, says its stable outlook on Nigeria, indicates that covid-19 related pressures will continue to weigh on the country’s GDP growth and fiscal and external metrics, but improved oil prices will support GDP growth.

https://www.arise.tv/s-and-p-global-revises-nigerias-sovereign-credit-rating-to-positive-from-negative/
Politics / Re: Tinubu’s First 6 Months: FG, States Spend Hugely, Citizenry Not Feeling Impact by 4Play(m): 8:06am On Dec 02, 2023
Compare the amounts shared recently to the same figure in 2015 and you will see that spending in naira terms has doubled at least. The problem is partly that the purchasing value of naira has severely declined in the last 9 years as can be seen converting these sums to the dollar. Adjusted for inflation/depreciation, spending has gone down.

https://www.channelstv.com/2015/06/23/faac-fg-states-lgs-share-n409-3-billion/

https://dailypost.ng/2015/08/27/faac-fg-states-lgs-share-n511-8bn-for-july/
Politics / Re: Nigeria Is Happening To Those Who Are Hoarding Dollars. by 4Play(m): 12:44pm On Nov 04, 2023
We have been through this journey multiple times starting from when $1 exchanged for 70 kobo. The multi-decade collapse in the naira's value does not happen in a straight line.

You have appreciation in naira which is hailed by the government and their supporters but these naira appreciations turn out to be brief as the long-term trend continues. Here are examples of articles written regarding naira appreciation in the last few years alone:

https://www.nairaland.com/7730375/naira-appreciate-settle-n600-1

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/12/naira-appreciates-over-dollar-by-n1-at-parallel-market/

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/08/naira-appreciates-n368-parallel-market/

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/12/naira-appreciated-30-3-dollar-10-months/amp/

https://www.legit.ng/business-economy/money/1512144-naira-ends-2022-a-positive-days-straight-losses-dollar/

Nigeria/Nigerians have a well-embedded expectation that inflation will continue to run high and a general distrust of the economy/political leaders/institutions. As long as this remains the case (I expect it will), then the naira will continue falling.

The fact that people are now celebrating naira exchanging for circa N900 to the $1 when it was exchanging for tells you a lot about how easily it is to sell hope to many, especially if the politician they're supporting is from their tribe. Nigerians love to clutch on to hope, that's why religion thrives in Nigeria. Particularly for the "Ronu" supporters confronted with myriad examples of living conditions getting worse under their tribesman, a little bit of something to hold on to and lavish praise on their "son" gets them giddy until reality sets in and they move on to the next source of hope.

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Politics / Re: Nigeria Is Not Broke, It’s Political Elites That Are “Broque” By Farooq Kperogi by 4Play(m): 9:30am On Oct 28, 2023
Nigeria is tragically broke. That the political class continues to lavish spending on themselves compounds the tragedy.

In some of the poorest countries, whether Somalia or Afghanistan, corruption is still rampant. See for instance: https://qz.com/somalia-is-the-most-corrupt-country-in-the-world-1850063626

Acknowledging that a country is broke is not a minor debating point but an important juncture to begin to tackle it. If you say Nigeria is not broke because politicians are buying SUVs for themselves, it makes it impossible to balance the budget and curtail inflation. More damage is done by failing to spend within the limits a country's finances allows.

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