koruji:

@PapaBrowne
Our thieving elites have colluded as usual. The election is already over, and it is for GEJ.

All we asked them to do is give the man the PDP ticket if the alternatives were IBB and Atiku. The other political parties were not supposed to lay down and let him walk over them. That unfortunately is what they are doing.

GEJ is going to get the presidency in the name of "unity". Tinubu basically implied the other day that without the CPC/ACN alliance GEJ would "not" lose the election.

As such, GEJ is throwing caution to the wind and showing his true colors while making high falutin promises - people are dying everyday in Jos, but the man is promising to eradicate tribalism from Nigeria. It seems that his "humility" at the end of the day is mere pretention.

Same ol same ol.

noblezone:

He only made analysis based from his perpective and you are calling him names? I am optimistic that GEJ will win. I prefer his humility and calmness to arrogant Buhari who led his gang of criminal minded soldiers like Abacha and IBB and truncate our second republic. He claimed Shagari was corrupt, but later discharged and acquited same.

Let the truth be told, the PDP as led by GEJ is not the same as that led by OBJ and Atiku. If there is any election rigging, I will blame Jega and not GEJ. Reason, I have seen in GEJ a commitment for a free and fear election. The concluded voters registration is a pointer.

For the first time in along time, we have president who is not a tyrant, unlike Buhari, IBB, Abacha, and OBJ. I know we need a change, and that change has already taken place.

I cant understand why many are not seeing the light.

PapaBrowne:

Let me start by acknowledging the fact that the Bakare pick by Buhari, has improved Buhari's fortunes desperately. In many online polls I've come across of recent, Buhari/ Bakare's popularity has skyrocted sometimes surpassing that of Jonathan. What I observed however, is that the biggest loser is Ribadu. All his fans seemed to drift enmass to the Buhari/Bakare ticket. Jonathan's popularity remains good, just a little less than the early days.
Given the fact that Buhari controls the North West with 19 Million Voters and has a pretty Good Showing in the South West, you would think Victory should be certain for CPC.
However, I'm 1000% sure that after a free and fair election come May 29th Buhari would not be anywhere near Aso rock for the simple reasons stated below

1)They are not campaigning
We have just 5 weeks to the elections and I can't see any sign of Buhari campaigning anywhere in Nigeria . He hasn't visited any states in the south or middle belt. No rallies whatsoever. Does he think everybody reads newspapers or have internet connection?? Ruralites which constitute the real voters in Nigeria have never heard about CPC. How are they going to give him votes. How is the farmer in Isale Egan, Arochukwu or Gbaramatu going to vote a Buhari he has has never heard about? Jonathan on the other hand is travelling everywhere despite the fact that he has the required visibility already.

2)The CPC has very limited structures
CPC has no structures in many states across the country. In fact, they didn't even field Governorship candidates in many states. Elections are won by politicians and not on the pages of newspapers. People actually think PDP wins because they rig. Thats far from the truth. PDP winS elections because they built structures across the country. Every Okada Association, Taxi drivers Asscoc, Market women group, and every other group that controls large swaths of REAL voters are all on the payroll of the PDP. The CPC structures start and finish in the North West and some states in the North East. Structures in the South West are shared between PDP and ACN. Without these structures, there is no way CPC is winning even 10% of the votes in the South West.

3)Jonathan's Popularity
[/b]It is not very often you see a popular incumbent. Jonathan is very popular, not because of his performance but because of the nature of his ascension. Nigeria is a very religious country and many people have come to believe that Jonathan has been propped up by God to bring change to the country. There is the impression amongst so many I've spoken with, that God will use Jonathan to change Nigeria.
Buhari knows this so well, so he calculatedly brings in a Pastor as running mate to tilt the balance. Was it a good strategy,I think very much so! Will it improve his fortunes, sadly I don't think so as Bakare is known to have discredited all the crowd pulling ministers including Adeboye whose he seems to be courting desperately these days.

[b]4)Cash, Money and Finance
Seriously, in any election, Cask is King. Whether that Election is in America or Zimbabwe, Nigeria or New Zealand!! Obama raised $600million dollars to execute his election. Without that war-chest, he would have lost to McCain. Fact is, He bought that election legitimately!!
Nigeria is not an exception! Money rules! Donald Duke estimated that it would cost close to 20 Billion naira to execute a honest presidential election. And that's just for campaigning minus settlements. My opinion, 50 Billion wouldn' t even do. If Buhari can raise that money in 5 weeks, then trust me he stole it!!

The PDP can buy up all those almajiris in the North West with N1000 each and they would line up enmasse for Jonathan. 19 Million almajiris will cost the PDP only 19 Billion Naira= Now that's chicken change for a party that has controlled a the economy of a country with some of the world's finest oil wells.
On a serious note, where is Buhari going to get the money required to campaign across the nation in just 5 weeks.The man needs to advertise, billboards, posters, etc they all cost money !!

[b]5)Jonathan is relaxed
[/b]Jonathan is so relaxed. When a man is so relaxed, you can tell that he has very little to worry about. The Buhari ticket would have worried the Jonathan camp if they had teamed up with ACN. But as it is always with the opposition their selfish interests carried the day.
Before the PDP presidential Primaries, Jonathan was very uneasy until Babangida was out of the race. When Atiku was left in the race, Jonathan became relaxed because victory was now certain. Atiku was an easy case. Exactly the same is playing out with Buhari. Jonathan's relaxed mien suggests that Buhari's CPC is nothing but a paper tiger!!

[b]6)25% in 24 states
[/b]Buhari cannot win up to 25% in any of the South South or South East states. That takes 11 states out of the running, leaving him with 25 states to score at least 25% of the votes. Is that a possiblity? I doubt especially given the fact that in the south west, the votes will be split in three between Jonathan, Ribadu and Buhari. Also states like Plateau and Benue would hardly give Buhari 25%. It will be so hard for Buhari to score that 25% in 24 states. That automatically nullifies any numerical victory he wishes he might obtain.

[b]7)Time and Chance
[/b]One of the most fundamental principles in life is the Time and Chance principle. Somehow it just appears like this is Goodluck Jonathan's time. Despites many miscalculations on his part, his popularity just doesn't seem to want to go downhill. Whether we like him or not, it looks like he is here to stay at least till 2015.
Same way Obama came and upset the dreams of so many like McCain and Hilary Clinton, so also Jonathan has truncated the life long ambitions of the likes of Babangida, Atiku, Gusau and come April it looks like Buhari will be added to the list of those who have fallen under Jonathan's dream killing sword!!

fodiyo:

one of the best analysis on NL i've ever read. well researched

kokoA:

The B.B ticket still remains my choice inspite of the poster's calculations.

PapaBrowne:

Let me start by acknowledging the fact that the Bakare pick by Buhari, has improved Buhari's fortunes desperately. In many online polls I've come across of recent, Buhari/ Bakare's popularity has skyrocted sometimes surpassing that of Jonathan. What I observed however, is that the biggest loser is Ribadu. All his fans seemed to drift enmass to the Buhari/Bakare ticket. Jonathan's popularity remains good, just a little less than the early days.
Given the fact that Buhari controls the North West with 19 Million Voters and has a pretty Good Showing in the South West, you would think Victory should be certain for CPC.
However, I'm 1000% sure that after a free and fair election come May 29th Buhari would not be anywhere near Aso rock for the simple reasons stated below

DeeJay20:

Point 1, 2, 3,4,5,6, 7 CORRECT CORRECT CORRECT CORRECT CORRECT, CORRECT, CORRECT

Cant see Them winning, i guess GEJ has this one, t[b]he money was  the real weapon, [/b]

ogunniyi2:

papabrowne! please you are on your own. just do what you think is right but you can not convince others to do what is wrong!!

PapaBrowne:

Let me start by acknowledging the fact that the Bakare pick by Buhari, has improved Buhari's fortunes desperately. In many online polls I've come across of recent, Buhari/ Bakare's popularity has skyrocted sometimes surpassing that of Jonathan. What I observed however, is that the biggest loser is Ribadu. All his fans seemed to drift enmass to the Buhari/Bakare ticket. Jonathan's popularity remains good, just a little less than the early days.
Given the fact that Buhari controls the North West with 19 Million Voters and has a pretty Good Showing in the South West, you would think Victory should be certain for CPC.
However, I'm 1000% sure that after a free and fair election come May 29th Buhari would not be anywhere near Aso rock for the simple reasons stated below

1)They are not campaigning
We have just 5 weeks to the elections and I can't see any sign of Buhari campaigning anywhere in Nigeria . He hasn't visited any states in the south or middle belt. No rallies whatsoever. Does he think everybody reads newspapers or have internet connection?? Ruralites which constitute the real voters in Nigeria have never heard about CPC. How are they going to give him votes. How is the farmer in Isale Egan, Arochukwu or Gbaramatu going to vote a Buhari he has has never heard about? Jonathan on the other hand is travelling everywhere despite the fact that he has the required visibility already.

2)The CPC has very limited structures
CPC has no structures in many states across the country. In fact, they didn't even field Governorship candidates in many states. Elections are won by politicians and not on the pages of newspapers. People actually think PDP wins because they rig. Thats far from the truth. PDP winS elections because they built structures across the country. Every Okada Association, Taxi drivers Asscoc, Market women group, and every other group that controls large swaths of REAL voters are all on the payroll of the PDP. The CPC structures start and finish in the North West and some states in the North East. Structures in the South West are shared between PDP and ACN. Without these structures, there is no way CPC is winning even 10% of the votes in the South West.

3)Jonathan's Popularity
[/b]It is not very often you see a popular incumbent. Jonathan is very popular, not because of his performance but because of the nature of his ascension. Nigeria is a very religious country and many people have come to believe that Jonathan has been propped up by God to bring change to the country. There is the impression amongst so many I've spoken with, that God will use Jonathan to change Nigeria.
Buhari knows this so well, so he calculatedly brings in a Pastor as running mate to tilt the balance. Was it a good strategy,I think very much so! Will it improve his fortunes, sadly I don't think so as Bakare is known to have discredited all the crowd pulling ministers including Adeboye whose he seems to be courting desperately these days.

[b]4)Cash, Money and Finance
Seriously, in any election, Cask is King. Whether that Election is in America or Zimbabwe, Nigeria or New Zealand!! Obama raised $600million dollars to execute his election. Without that war-chest, he would have lost to McCain. Fact is, He bought that election legitimately!!
Nigeria is not an exception! Money rules! Donald Duke estimated that it would cost close to 20 Billion naira to execute a honest presidential election. And that's just for campaigning minus settlements. My opinion, 50 Billion wouldn' t even do. If Buhari can raise that money in 5 weeks, then trust me he stole it!!

The PDP can buy up all those almajiris in the North West with N1000 each and they would line up enmasse for Jonathan. 19 Million almajiris will cost the PDP only 19 Billion Naira= Now that's chicken change for a party that has controlled a the economy of a country with some of the world's finest oil wells.
On a serious note, where is Buhari going to get the money required to campaign across the nation in just 5 weeks.The man needs to advertise, billboards, posters, etc they all cost money !!

[b]5)Jonathan is relaxed
[/b]Jonathan is so relaxed. When a man is so relaxed, you can tell that he has very little to worry about. The Buhari ticket would have worried the Jonathan camp if they had teamed up with ACN. But as it is always with the opposition their selfish interests carried the day.
Before the PDP presidential Primaries, Jonathan was very uneasy until Babangida was out of the race. When Atiku was left in the race, Jonathan became relaxed because victory was now certain. Atiku was an easy case. Exactly the same is playing out with Buhari. Jonathan's relaxed mien suggests that Buhari's CPC is nothing but a paper tiger!!

[b]6)25% in 24 states
[/b]Buhari cannot win up to 25% in any of the South South or South East states. That takes 11 states out of the running, leaving him with 25 states to score at least 25% of the votes. Is that a possiblity? I doubt especially given the fact that in the south west, the votes will be split in three between Jonathan, Ribadu and Buhari. Also states like Plateau and Benue would hardly give Buhari 25%. It will be so hard for Buhari to score that 25% in 24 states. That automatically nullifies any numerical victory he wishes he might obtain.

[b]7)Time and Chance
[/b]One of the most fundamental principles in life is the Time and Chance principle. Somehow it just appears like this is Goodluck Jonathan's time. Despites many miscalculations on his part, his popularity just doesn't seem to want to go downhill. Whether we like him or not, it looks like he is here to stay at least till 2015.
Same way Obama came and upset the dreams of so many like McCain and Hilary Clinton, so also Jonathan has truncated the life long ambitions of the likes of Babangida, Atiku, Gusau and come April it looks like Buhari will be added to the list of those who have fallen under Jonathan's dream killing sword!!

tolu001:

Under normal circumstances of a free and fair election, BB ticket will definitely secure a landslide victory over the Jonathan/Samba going by the present political calculations and number of registered voters from each state.

If votes would be allowed to count, then you can surely throw the so-called power of incumbency into the dustbin, cos GE will loose gallantly.