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obonujoker:To me this is irrational. That corruption investigations are deployed to hound political adversaries is no basis for supporting corruption. It's usually better to tackle corruption in a politically biased way than not to tackle it all. There is no innocent reason explaining Patience Jonathan's wealth. |
legislatively:The president doesn't travel by sea so why should this road matter? |
There is nothing like football age when you are born in the UK. Had he been born in Nigeria, he would be celebrating his 24th birthday. |
Good politics probably bad economics. |
omohayek:You are right, for the average Nigerian, a technical definition of the end of recession is meaningless if it doesn't materialise in strong growth. Arguably in Nigeria, and for distributional reasons (the windfall from growth is reaped unevenly), you need close to double digit GDP growth to make serious improvement in the life of the average Nigerian. Without major pro-market economic reforms (unlikely given the disposition of this government) or a major sustained rally in oil prices, we are far away from attaining rapid GDP growth any time soon. It is such an unpardonable waste of economic potential. |
buffalowings:Anambra state propaganda is in overdrive. If there was a state government propaganda league table, Anambra and Lagos will be running neck and neck. |
Jasboi:I think it's plausible Nigeria is out, or will come out, of recession this year. Remember also that for recession to end, the economy simply needs to stop contracting for at least 2 quarters (6 months). Therefore, the end of recession doesn't necessarily mean that things will start getting better but that it will stop getting worse. |
The passion is inversely related to the amount of knowledge Daboomb actually has. A rather gratuitous exhibition of rank idiocy complete with coloured post! Daboomb: Wednesday 7 January 2015 14.33 EST Last modified on Wednesday 7 January 2015 19.08 ESThttps://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2015/jan/07/oil-price-brent-crude-falls-below-50-barrel |
LionDeLeo:It is also late here in London so I will have to call it a night. I used the N160/$1 to N305/$1 currency range as the former was the exchange rate when oil began its plunge and seemed most apropos to your friend's analogy. If you use the period when the official rate was N197/$1 (Q1 2015) as the baseline, it's even more difficult to grasp why the analogy of the 70% plunge in household income has been deployed. Oil prices today are roughly where they were in Q1 2015 and apart from the brief plunge to $28, the aggregate price (the average price since June 2015) has not seen a major decline since Q1 2015. As to the rest of your earlier post, I do not think it adds much to the debate as the key issue of contention is how that affects a government whose primary obligations are local currency denominated. It is part of the reason why I have kept harping on the futility of maintaining a fixed exchange rate regime. By exchanging its dollar income at the official rate of N305 instead of N410, the government is short changing itself by reducing its purchasing power when most of its counterparties are domestic and are paid in Naira. |
southpole:You are conflating two claims - oil as a source of forex inflow (which many, though questionable*, cite as constituting 90%) and oil as a source of FG income. As a source of FG income, oil has been in the 60-70% range. Look at this 2014 article: In 2013, oil revenue actual receipts for the federal government totaled N1.99trillion, as against N2.35trillion projected in that year’s budget, despite oil prices staying above average $100 per barrel against the $79 per barrel benchmark.Source:http://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/173682-budgit-analysis-2015-budget-shows-nigerian-govt-not-committed-austerity-measures-oil-price-falls.html Non-oil revenue was N1.07 trillion (billion was a typo) or 33% of FG receipts. You also failed to understand that what affect the oil sector affects all other sectors since it constitute about 90% of the financial back bone.Sorry, the above is balderdash. This thread is about the FG's budget and I took offence to the oft-cited analogy (used ad nauseam by BMC posters here) that the FG's fiscal health was similar to a household that saw its income fall 70%. This as I have pointed out is hogwash. But if you want to widen the debate to the economy at large, your household analogy is even more fatuous. Despite perceptions to the contrary, Nigeria's GDP (the sum total of the economy's output) or gross national income is not dominated by oil exports. Oil is less than 20-25% of GDP so your example of a 70% household income decline is wholly inappropriate. * Non-oil sources of forex in 2014 totalled $52bn: $21bn in remittances, $10.5bn in non-oil exports and $20.7bn in investment inflows. See sources below: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/04/nigerians-living-abroad-remitted-21bn-in-2014-world-bank/ http://www.vanguardngr.com/2016/01/cbn-blames-declining-non-oil-revenue-on-low-export-loans/ http://investadvocate.com.ng/2016/03/07/investment-inflow-nigeria-drops-n2-3tn/ |
LionDeLeo:1. Having an official exchange rate is economic illiteracy and represents the government short-changing itself. I used the official rate in my rebuttal but the market rate of N420/$1 makes my case with greater force. The government, in its adherence to a debunked model of economics, decided to over-value the currency at a fixed rate and effectively deprived itself of spending resources to meet its domestic obligations. That's not an argument in the government's defence but it's an emphatic exemplar of the government's utter incompetence. 2. This is a vacuous postulation. Irrespective of the original denomination of the government's income, what matters most is the denomination of the government's obligations. Yes, there are constraints to quantitative easing but this is academic in this context as the exchange rate depreciation offset most of the problem. It helps that Nigeria's government spending is small as a percentage of the economy ab initio. 3. You are plucking numbers out of the air. For instance re debt-servicing, total FG foreign debt was $9.5bn when GEJ left power with yields of about 5-7% (an upper range of $665m per year). Foreign reserve is not an FG "expense" at all (reserves are accumulated/depleted as part of monetary operations but has no bearing on the FG's fiscal position). The FG's capital expenditure on military operations are abysmal and referring to diplomatic expenses is scraping the bottom of the barrel stuff. 4. The $30 p/b excuse again! This government has been in power for almost 2 years and oil prices made a brief excursion to that price range and quickly bounced up. Oil prices have spent far longer in the $50 range in the GEJ era (its current range) than it did in the $30 range in the Buhari era. Indeed, oil prices are today roughly where they were when the present government was making fantastic promises of free healthcare for all. Contrary to your friend's analogous 70% plunge in government revenue (implied to have happened during the Buhari era), oil prices are close to where they were in Q1 2015 and when Buhari took over power. See image below. My point isn't that the fall in oil revenue has no adverse impact on the government's fiscal health but that the melodramatic claim of a 70% plunge in revenue which the household analogy made by your friend evokes is preposterous. Yes, there has been some adverse impact (at the very least, via the inflation channel and the general health of the economy) but this need not have been and is not as dramatically bad for the FG's budget as some of the Buhari apologists suggest. Again, and this keeps being sidestepped, the supposed uprightness of the Buhari government in accounting for oil revenue (in sharp contrast to the uber-dishonesty of the GEJ government) seems to be ignored as a factor. Surely, if the new government is more competent and honest, this should to a great degree offset some of the adverse impact of the oil revenue collapse?
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ransomed:I don't get this argument at all. When the judicial proceedings involve election disputes between APC and PDP, the "PDP judiciary" are quite willing to deliver victory, several times, to the APC candidate. But when a sensationalised corruption story stalls in judicial proceedings, the judiciary becomes PDP. The bulk of Nigeria's loot is abroad, how many successful court claims for forfeiture have been made by the Nigerian government in Western courts? How many have even been initiated or are Western judges part of the PDP conspiracy? Someone said it's because the EFCC is inadequately resourced with investigators and lawyers but considering what is at stake (billions of dollars in loot), it is inexcusable for the EFCC to be under-resourced. PS: When Buhari's certificate issue was to be adjudicated on, his legal team was well-resourced. Tells you where the priorities lie. |
There is no legal action so the thread title and newspaper headline (as is characteristic of Punch) is misleading. There is a threat of legal action if the allegation is not retracted but no lawsuit. The headline is a bit premature. |
southpole:I have seen this household budget analogy deployed by "BMC" activists but it is crass, fatuous and utterly benighted. It plays on the short memory, dissonance and naivete of the average Nigerian. Here is why: The Nigerian government's spending obligations are largely Naira denominated and dominated by recurrent expenditure (payroll expenses and interest payment on Naira denominated bonds). If the price of a barrel of crude oil falls from $100 to $50, assuming (for the sake of simplicity) that this leads to halving of government oil revenue, the impact would be moderated by the exchange rate effect. By allowing the exchange rate to fall from N160/$1 to N305/$1, the government is able to meet much of its salary/bond payments without breaking much sweat because workers and bond investors are paid in Naira. If oil revenue previously yielded $20bn, the FG would be able to spend N3.2 trillion (at a rate of N160/$1). If oil revenue halved to $10bn, the FG would be able to spend N3 trillion (at a rate of N305/$1). The exchange rate effect acts as a strong cushion re the government's budget against the deleterious effects of an oil revenue collapse. Interestingly, when NOI was queried by the opposition in 2013 as to why she preferred to borrow in Naira rather than in foreign currency (the latter attracts lower interest rate), this point was made and we debated it in the following thread: https://www.nairaland.com/1563336/must-read-reps-50-questions/2#20372749. So your household budget analogy is misleading. The government's revenue doesn't fall by 70% - its dollar income does fall significantly but little of the government's expenditure is dollar denominated. But the impropriety of the analogy doesn't end there. You ignore that only 60-70% of the government's revenue is oil derived. There are a range of taxes - Income tax, VAT, Corporation tax, e.t.c. - that are not derived from oil. We also ignore the elephant in the room (this is where my reference to short memories and dissonance arises). We were told that the previous government was stealing a huge chunk of the oil revenue (have we forgotten Sanusi's $20bn allegation?). If the previous government was stealing significant proportions of the oil revenue, the mere fact of having a new and more honest government should offset some of the downside of the oil income collapse. Sanusi's claim was that oil export proceeds were not being remitted back to Nigeria. Surely, there would be some upside now that those proceeds are being remitted. Overall, the argument citing the collapse of oil revenue as an excuse belies all we have been told about the wanton theft of the GEJ government vs the honesty/uprightness of the Buhari government. It ignores basic understanding/knowledge of how exchange rate depreciation works to protect a government whose spending is largely denominated in its local currency. It is a tedious and ignorant argument which should be read its last rites by the BMC crew and all Buhari apologists. Find another argument that doesn't insult our intelligence. |
There is nothing extraordinary about the suggestion that corruption discoveries are not actually discoveries. Who remembers last year all the talk of N3 trillion recovered to the TSA (a case of double-counting)? See here: https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2016/06/05/keeping-his-promise-buhari-announces-recovery-of-n3-4-trillion-in-one-year/ Check out this thread here where the claim was that the EFCC had recovered $3.1bn over a 6 months period - https://www.nairaland.com/3102491/efcc-recovers-3.1bn-6-months Has anyone heard anything about the N2.5bn discovered in Stellah Oduah's housemaid's bank account: [url]http://saharareporters.com/2016/07/03/efcc-finds-n25b-former-aviation-minister-stella-oduah%E2%80%99s-housemaid%E2%80%99s-account[/url] Here is a claim of recovering $10bn: http://mobile.apanews.net/en/news/nigerian-govt-recovers-over-10bn-from-looters-minister This is just a brief snapshot of a number of stories that have no follow-through. No new news exists pertaining to the Sanusi $20bn claim. The tragedy is not that there is nothing to recover - loot stolen by Nigerians may run into the hundreds of billions of dollars over multiple decades. The tragedy is that the desire to see corruption tackled is exploited in sham claims of discoveries for propaganda purposes. |
The fact that she got into Stuyvesant High School is remarkable in itself. It is highly selective in its admissions and as a result, has a pronounced racial skew in its student population: The paucity of Black and Hispanic students at Stuyvesant has often been an issue for some city administrators. As of the 2014-15 school year, Asian students made up 73% of the school's population; White students, 20%; Latinos, 3%; Blacks, 1%; and unknown/other, 7%.https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuyvesant_High_School |
The airport project is a publicity stunt that will not see the light of the day. Nigeria is a country where government officials spend an inordinate amount of time concocting fake projects/achievements. |
This being Nigeria, there is a strong possibility that there is no actual $43m. Who did the counting and verified the said amount? |
This being Nigeria, there is a strong possibility that there is no actual $50m. Who did the counting and verified the said amount? |
Who remembers this story last year. Died quietly like a mouse: Agents of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) have discovered the sum of N2.5 billion in a bank account opened in the name of a housemaid to former Minister of Aviation, Stella Oduah, who is now a senator representing Anambra State in the Federal Republic of Nigeria.[url]http://saharareporters.com/2016/07/03/efcc-finds-n25b-former-aviation-minister-stella-oduah%E2%80%99s-housemaid%E2%80%99s-account[/url] |
My view is that both premises are true: The government uses past corruption for propaganda activities today. Even Abacha had his failed bank tribunal which he used as one of his covers whilst incompetently running the economy and looting with reckless abandon. OBJ exposed Abacha's corruption - indeed it was during OBJ's era we got to hear about Buhari's mismanagement of PTF money. But OBJ's government still embezzled. At state government level, it is quotidian for each new government to state that the predecessor left an empty treasury and so the new government cannot accomplish its campaign promises. So yes, tales of past corruption provide the nourishment for today's propaganda and excuses for government inaction and ineptitude. |
hysteriabox:Suffering from cancer is no impediment to criminal prosecution though it can have a major impact on sentencing. The simple truth is that the Nigerian government is not seriously interested in investigating her thoroughly. How many of her co-conspirators in Nigeria or abroad are in custody today? The government likes the story for its titillating and propaganda effects but not sufficiently enough to get to the root of the looting. |
Dan Etete acquired the oil bloc in 1998 when he was petroleum minister under the Abacha government and the chronology gives you an idea why corruption allegations rarely gain traction in Nigeria. A full investigation will implicate several people across successive governments. Some of these people are highly connected to today's administration as well as past administrations. So the story dies in Nigeria albeit kept alive by the international media. The DSS and EFCC are more interested in "mickey mouse" corruption allegations involving relatively low level allegations. Has anyone heard anything about Sanusi's $20bn? |
I am sure Bayo Ogunlesi would be embarassed to read these stories as his compatriots use his name for ignorant chest-beating. GIP is not his personal firm - it's a joint venture involving a number of founders including CreditSuisse and GE as the principal founding investors. |
Truth234:Can you provide reference to where the IMF predicted N1000 to $1. |
Leicester City footballer Ahmed Musa has been arrested on suspicion of attacking his wife.http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4384734/Leicester-City-s-Ahmed-Musa-arrested-wife-beating.html
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The problem is that the government uses anti-corruption investigations as a tool of harrassment against perceived government enemies. It's very likely Orubebe is guilty of corrupt misdeeds but once the government feels it has sufficiently "taught" him a lesson, they discontinue their prosecution. |
capatainrambo:With those BMC names I am reminded of the statement by Upton Sinclair, "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it." http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/21810-it-is-difficult-to-get-a-man-to-understand-something Paid posters make a living from being obstinate, pretending not to grasp the apparent unsoundness of some of their arguments. |
wristbangle:Oil prices in the last quarter of 2016 were in the same price range as they were in the first few months of 2015 and before Buhari's govt too power. Oil prices made a brief fall in the first quarter of 2016 to $28 p/b but it rapidly rallied and has been in the mid-40s range - where it was in Q1 2015. Remember Buhari campaigners used to argue that N216 to $1 was umacceptable. The problem is that we have used the oil price fall as an excuse to defend indefensible ineptitude in policy making. The point isn't that the GEJ govt was competent - it was incompetent. But that the Buhari govt is even more incompetent. And this nonsense about the economy not being diversified - it already is. Agriculture is the biggest sector and oil & gas are probably less than 1/5th of the economy. What you should say is that oil is the biggest source of forex inflow but Buhari's policies have discouraged other sources of forex inflow. Foreign investment has declined to a large extent because of the exchange rate policy mayhem. |
wristbangle:This una argument: oil prices were already low as of May 29, 2015. Besides, with all the fantastical tales of corruption involving the previous govt, one would have thought the emergence of the present govt, with its ultra-honest accounting for govt revenues, would have offset the impact of the oil price fall. If the GEJ govt was looting all our money, and the Buhari govt isn't, why would an oil price fall be so painful for Nigerians when they were not benefiting much in the first place? |
Qmerit:Borrowing money in foreign currency at high rates is your definition of "trying". Please how did her borrowing spree work out for Ogun state government? This is the same people who told us they recovered billions of dollars in loot and have "recovered" N3.2 trillion into the TSA. If this is a bond with 15 year maturity, like the previous one, it will cost $562.5m ($37.5m x 15 years) to service plus the principal of $500m. So the total cost of the loan will be at least $1bn. God forbid the Naira falls again as this will make the cost even more prohibitive. |
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