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PoliticsRe: Boko Haram Attacks Ghumbili, Adamawa, Kills Scores, Destroys 60 Houses by 4Play(m): 9:22am On Aug 11, 2017
ajepako:
I have come to notice that Boko Haram attacks become fiercer and more brazen when Buhari is out of the country and Osinbajo is acting as president..

Is it just me or my imagination that is is a calculated move to discredit a southern Christian?

Let's hope I am wrong sha ...
Like IPOB and Niger-Delta militants who existed when their kin were in power but whose potency increased when their kin lost power. Boko Haram's existence is unconnected to Nigeria's party and ethnic politics, but its potency is increased if there is an increasing sense of power slipping from a Northern muslim to a Southern infidel. Like GEJ, an Osibanjo presidency may lead to less militancy in the Niger-Delta and more Boko Haram attacks.

My thinking is that if you are inclined to be attracted to the idea of instituting an Islamic caliphate: your inclination will be reinforced if the leadership of your country is held by an infidel. There is no conspiracy per se by Northern power brokers to leverage Boko Haram, think of it as a mood affiliation mechanism. Feelings of animosity are aroused or sated depending on the ethno-religious background of the country's leadership. This is why many Igbos suddenly increasingly realised that Nigeria was an unworkable project, and started cleaving to Kanu's IPOB, when GEJ got booted out of power. In the same vein, absent a visible Muslim leader and given Nigeria's deepening economic problems, many in the North will be attracted to the idea that Nigeria needs an Islamist reawakening.
PoliticsRe: 48 Corpses Of UNIMAID Staff, NNPC Drivers, Soldiers Deposited At UMTH by 4Play(m): 9:57am On Jul 28, 2017
cjrane:
This is very very sad.
Nigeria army are just untrained brutes.
Why attack BH when they have civilian hostages? What result were they expecting to get?
It wasn't a kidnap but a hit and run attack by Boko Haram. This was the interpretation I saw in the UK's Daily Telegraph who in turn were citing the Associated Press.

Apart from the security issues, why is Nigeria spending government money looking for oil in the North? This incident highlights the folly of policies driven by sectional/regional motives. Lives are being risked and wasted in a foolhardy mission to find oil in the North.
PoliticsRe: Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala Appointed By Standard Chartered As Director, To Earn £130k by 4Play(m): 8:43am On Jul 28, 2017
YelloweWest:
While we here traded competence for foolishness on the ground of fighting corruption.
There is no comparison between this woman and adeosu
The problem isn't solely Adeosun: Buhari's statist inclinations are a major stumbling block to reforming the economy. Add to that Emefiele's craven acceptance to work within a fixed exchange regime to please Buhari.

I agree that Adeosun is intellectually unsound - see her economically illiterate notion that the economy needs a stimulus in the midst of stagflation. But even a competent person cannot work effectively for an inept person. NOI was also tarnished by association with GEJ's government determination to loot and its earlier decision to award bumper pay rises to public sector workers.
PoliticsRe: Nigeria Out Of Top 10 Most Corrupt Nations – [full List] by 4Play(m): 6:47pm On Jul 27, 2017
False news that exploits Nigerians gullibility. Google same index for 2014: we were 136th out of 174 states (so not in the bottom 10).
BusinessRe: Citing Economic Headwinds, Cbn Holds Interest Rate At 14% by 4Play(m): 8:04am On Jul 26, 2017
wristbangle:
Ah if the interest rate is 16%, do you want to kill people from losing interest to invest?
People will lose investment incentives if everytime Nigerians go to market, the price of goods keep rising fast. Nigeria had a problem of too much Naira chasing dollars, releasing more Naira into the system by lowering rates will increase the loss of the Naira's value and the rate of inflation.

The reduced rates will not filter into the economy in the form of increased investment. It will mainly increase the amount of Naira available to buy dollars.
BusinessRe: Citing Economic Headwinds, Cbn Holds Interest Rate At 14% by 4Play(m): 7:56am On Jul 26, 2017
voiceoftheupcom:
CITING ECONOMIC HEADWINDS, CBN HOLDS INTEREST RATE AT 14%
Source : http://www.eyesoflagos.com/2017/07/citing-economic-headwinds-cbn-holds.html

Nigeria is operating a-year-old regime of high official interest rate at 14 per cent (since July 2016), with double digit inflation rate of 16.1 per cent.
The monetary authority has consistently rebuked advice from some international organisations like the IMF to further tighten the interest rate to attract foreign investments.
Many, including the Minister of Finance, Mrs Kemi Adeosun, had asked the MPC to lower the interest rate in order to enable government access more loans domestically without expanding its debt servicing costs.
That suggestion by Adeosun to reduce rates so that the government can borrow more is the reason why I assert that the inadequacy of the economic policy regime is not solely down to Buhari. Here you have a finance minister calling for fiscal and monetary stimulus in the midst of a currency crisis!
BusinessRe: Citing Economic Headwinds, Cbn Holds Interest Rate At 14% by 4Play(m): 7:46am On Jul 26, 2017
wristbangle:
U mean is too high?
Interest rate is too low and should be higher than the rate of inflation (the latter is officially at 16% but is probably higher).
BusinessRe: Citing Economic Headwinds, Cbn Holds Interest Rate At 14% by 4Play(m): 7:43am On Jul 26, 2017
APCLyingBastard:
Banks are lending at 30% for mere consumer loans and the short term commercial loans are going for as high as 35%!

Tell me, which economy can grow in this environment?

During the US recession years, the Feds reduced interest rates to 0% in order to shore up liquidity and that helped to pump cash flows to SMEs as well as help bailout big companies.

Nigeria is being run by idiots.
During the US recession, the US was facing deflationary pressures with the threat of prices falling. This necessitated the Fed reducing interest rates.

Nigeria faced an inflationary spiral. You don't reduce interest rates in such a spiral.

There is a tendency in Nigeria to look for easy solutions and to invoke inappropriate analogies with Western countries. Recent recessions in the West have not involved the sort of stagflation we are facing. To find a more appropriate parallel, look at the periods in the West in which they faced stagflation - 1970s and early 80s.When US inflation hit 14% in 1980, the Fed under Volcker increased rates to 20%
BusinessRe: Citing Economic Headwinds, Cbn Holds Interest Rate At 14% by 4Play(m): 7:31am On Jul 26, 2017
The interest rate of 14% is too low given where inflation is. The low interest rate is a contributory factor to our currency and inflation problems.
EducationRe: Sodiq Wahab Oladejo Graduates With First Class In UK University by 4Play(m): 3:17pm On Jul 25, 2017
deeone10:
im beginning to feel that first class is easy outside Nigeria
More UK universities and colleges are awarding the top grade to students, figures show. One-third of UK universities and colleges awarded a first for 25% of degrees granted in 2015-16 – four times as many as in 2010-11. We asked students and academics about why they think this is. Here are a selection of your responses.

Ali, 45, a humanities lecturer from the south of England: Pressure mean academics err on the side of generosity. There is intense pressure on academics from university management to gain high scores in the National Student Survey, because this feeds into university league tables. Added to this, there is an increasing expectation among students, who pay £9,000 per year. They feel they should receive high results for their degrees because they pay so much for them. Students obsess about gaining a first-class degree. In many cases they are more focused on the grade than upon the actual subject that they are studying and this sabotages their results. Their view of higher education has become instrumentalised; many see it exclusively as a path to employment and they forget to take an interest in and enjoy the subject that they are studying.
https://www.google.com.ng/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/21/why-students-more-first-class-degrees-university
PoliticsRe: Nigeria Agrees To Lend Total Of $360 Million To World Bank, IMF! by 4Play(op): 12:41pm On Jul 25, 2017
One of my old favourite threads. We went from a net lender to the IMF and the World Bank to a difficult structural adjustment programme within close to a decade. Don't think we have learnt much about the dangers of spending an oil boom on consumption goods and the explosive nature of debt.
PoliticsRe: North East: Nigerian Military Liberated Over 25 Towns During Jonathan by 4Play(m): 1:17pm On Jul 23, 2017
If GEJ was doing his job, there wouldn't be 25 towns to liberate as those towns should not have been lost in the first place.
PoliticsRe: Supreme Court Sacks Dorawar-Sallau, Orders Swearing-in Of Abdullahi Mohammed by 4Play(m): 5:44pm On Jul 20, 2017
JasonScolari:
It has been victory for the PDP this month and that's how it's going to be come 2019.......




God bless the PDP..........




God bless Chief James Onanefe Ibori.



God bless Nyesom Wike.



God bless the Niger Delta Republic.
Maybe it's good news for PDP as, given Buhari's health, PDP offers a good route for obtaining a Northern president in 2019.
PoliticsRe: U.S Prosecutors: How Madueke, Omokore, Aluko Blew Billions On ‘lavish Lifestyle’ by 4Play(m): 4:20pm On Jul 15, 2017
vingeophysicist:
rubbish no evidence.party politics!!!
This one is actually true. I recognise that there are a lot of fake corruption stories but this case is following US investigations on the matter.
PoliticsRe: Top 50 Lies Of Lai Mohammed (study Report) by 4Play(m): 7:20am On Jun 29, 2017
Xeedorf:
Can you see how names influence Oga LIE destinies.
Lie continue till.....
There are studies that support this. Read about nominative determinism.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nominative_determinism

Nominative determinism is the hypothesis that people tend to gravitate towards areas of work that fit their names.
PoliticsRe: Female IPOB Supporter Knelt Down For Nnamdi Kanu (picture) by 4Play(m): 7:06pm On Jun 28, 2017
ESDKING:
Leadership is not all about going to Abuja to get corrupted like those you perceive as Igbo leaders. Leadership is all about influence
Abubukar Shekau is influential, would that make him leadership material? Influence can be malicious and its presence doesn't necessarily equate to leadership.

A further point is that even if a significant number view Kanu as leader, to what end is his leadership going to take Igbos?
PoliticsRe: Female IPOB Supporter Knelt Down For Nnamdi Kanu (picture) by 4Play(m): 6:37pm On Jun 28, 2017
Airforce1:
We respect our leaders /elders
Who made this guy an Igbo leader? If Kanu is representative of Biafra, then the Biafra dream ought to be forgotten.
CrimeRe: Man Arrested For Having Sex With A Goat In Katsina Pictured by 4Play(m): 12:49pm On Jun 23, 2017
ExAngel007:
sir, immorality is found everwhere.
The guy you are quoting forgets the ritual killing, drug smuggling, prostitution, armed robbery and kidnapping in the South.
PoliticsRe: Baseless Lies About Property In Igboland by 4Play(m): 6:23pm On Jun 22, 2017
Afam4eva:
I just can't imaging the lies that have pervaded this tread. Everyone just keeps lying about some phantom experiences about buying lands in Igboland.

First you have to makeup your mind about your lie. First, you say there's nothing attractive about investing in Igboland and then you turn around and say that they have refused to sell land to you. If there's nothing in Igboland, why then do you want to buy land. Are you building an orphanage?

The truth remains that among the big 3 ethnic groups, it's mainly the Igbos and Hausa/Fulani that invest wherever they go as long as they have the resources to do so. There are thousands of Igbo investments for example in Lagos and thousands in the north.

Yes, SOME Yorubas (I mean some) have some investments outside Yorubaland and outside the capital of Abuja but these investments you can count and i'm not talking about companies such as GLOBACOM and co. I'm talking about small and medium size enterprises. In port-hacourt where i grew up partly, there were loads of Yorubas working in SHELL and most of them did not have their own house in port-hacourt. They stayed in the accomodation provided by shell (Shell camp) at Rumukrushi while some of them rented houses. As soon as they were done with their jobs, off they went to wherever they came from with no recourse to give back to the community or something. And this is port-hacourt, the 3rd most important city we're talking about here. If they can't invest massively in PH while then will they invest in the south-east? I think it's better to argue that the south-east is not viable, atleast to you than to use the cloak of indegenes not selling lands to you. It's a vwery weak argument and like some people have said, if the south-east is not welcoming to strangers. How about the south-south or middle belt? How many houses or investments do you have in places like Calabar, Uyo, Asaba, Warri and co? The very few Yorubas that have houses in the south-east how did they get their own land if Igbos don't sell lands to outsiders. On one side, you say Igbo like money too much, on another part you say someone that likes money sees your money and rejects it because you're not Igbo. Like i said, stick to one lie.
Ethnic hatred doesn't have to be coherent. It draws strength from the inherent contradictions. Igbos love money excessively but won't sell property/land to non-Igbos, thereby depressing land and property values.

It tells you a lot about the intellect, or lack thereof, of ethnic warriors. The idiocy is Olympian, bordering on imbecility.
BusinessRe: Banks To Resume Dollar Loans As Naira Appreciates by 4Play(m): 1:58am On Jun 19, 2017
masonkz:
But then what sense does it make for a bank to issue Eurobonds to repay their debt? Eurobonds still come with its own interest repayment, hence they'll not only be repaying on past loans but also on the new lonas. Seeing the state of Nigeria currently, I'm sure such funds will come at a high rate to the banks.

The raised funds better be for something else.
I suspect they don't have enough in reserves to pay the debt upon maturity.
PoliticsRe: Biafra Will Be Land Locked And Over Populated. by 4Play(m): 11:59am On Jun 17, 2017
Just thinking of this as a thought exercise, high population density tends to foster economic growth. This is because of network effects and scale economies. This is why urban areas tend to be more dynamic than non-urban areas.

Think about infrastructure for example: it costs less to deliver transport connecting people living in close proximity than people living far apart. This is why accusations that, for instance, Buhari provided more infrastructure spending as PTF boss to the North misses the point: the North's land mass justifies such a skew.

If low population density was good for the economy, living standards in the North of Nigeria would be higher than in the South.

Access to the coast would be helpful to growth for Igbos and so lacking direct access would not help. There are studies which show that distance from the coast has a correlation with economic growth. But I don't think this would be a major factor here as the actual distance from the coast for Igbos is hardly significant.

It's not the economics of Biafra that is worrying. It is the politics which trumps the economics. There is no easy way of delineating boundaries amongst the various ethnic groups in the South who would want to secede once a major ethnic group in the South leaves. There is little logic in staying in a Nigeria once either the Yorubas or the Igbos leave as the rest of Nigeria would be skewed towards Northern dominance. This would be Yugoslavia x 10: bloodier and messier.
BusinessRe: St. Louis, Other Foreign Packaged Sugar Brands Remains Banned In Nigeria – FG by 4Play(m): 7:00am On Jun 16, 2017
dominique:
It's been long since I saw the St. Louis brand in the markets. Its better it remains banned. The last time I used it, its quality had reduced. I had to put up to four cubes in a mug of tea before I could taste it. Is that one a sugar?
When we develop our local products, foreign companies will come to realize that Nigeria is no longer a dumping ground for their inferior products.
Banning imported products is not a good way of developing Nigeria's economy. The implication of these bans is that you pay more for either illicitly imported sub-standard imports or locally produced versions.
If the latter, the producer takes the "excess profits" out of the country having converted it to dollars. So you get all the downsides - higher prices and currency depreciation - without necessarily developing a strong economy.

It's not today that we started banning imported products, we have been doing this since independence, but all it achieves is line the pockets of the highly connected like Dangote who keep most of their wealth abroad.

To develop a strong economy, we need export competitive industries that bring in forex through their exports not protectionist policies that inflate prices for Nigerians. Protectionist policies work only if they are part of an export strategy: industries are protected only on the strong condition they generate export proceeds. This is not what is happening in Nigeria and we should not be applauding schemes to impoverish Nigerians.
PoliticsRe: The Challenges PMB Is Likely To Face In His Administration by 4Play(m): 1:19am On Jun 16, 2017
The idea that it is the Nigerian judiciary that is the main obstacle to anti-corruption investigations is preposterous. It is this same judiciary that often rules in favour of APC candidates in electoral disputes.

Also, most of Nigeria's stolen wealth is abroad. What litigation has been commenced by the present government, or on its behest, in foreign courts to recover stolen wealth?

The reality is that much of the vaunted anti-corruption fight exist for the propaganda value. Stories are circulated to tittilate, relying on our short memories and are not followed up. As an example, no one today talks about the $20bn supposedly pilfered over an 18 month period. You will think a government facing financial difficulties will prioritise the investigation of such obscene theft.
BusinessRe: Naira Declines By 0.82%, Settle At N370/$ by 4Play(m): 12:26pm On Jun 15, 2017
SeniorZato:
How far about the signed budget
The signing of the budget can make matters worse if it means an increase in money supply (increase in Naira supply). Any injection of Naira not offset by an increase in forex inflow can often lead to Naira depreciation.

Only a sustained oil price rally or improvement in investment climate will enable the Naira gain strength in the long run.
Education18 Year Old Nigerian Student Accepted For Phd Study - USA Today by 4Play(op): 9:02am On Jun 10, 2017
I thought this is quite impressive. Had she been in Nigeria, she might still be taking JAMB preparatory to undertaking a 4 or 5 year sub-standard undergraduate education. Not to mention one year of NYSC servitude:

While many students have just graduated from high school, 18-year-old Nigeria native Nkechinyere Chidi-Ogbolu is not your typical teen.

Chidi-Ogbolu just graduated summa cum laude from Howard University with a degree in chemical engineering — making her the youngest person to graduate from Howard this year, and one of the youngest in Howard’s history.

But that’s not all for Chidi-Ogbolu.

She’s now preparing to start a Ph.D. program at the University of California-Davis after the summer ends. She’ll be studying biomedical engineering with a focus on creating and discovering new medicines.

“I’ve always been interested in the medical field,” she told USA TODAY College. “But I want to have a broader scale of impact than in treating patients one-on-one.”

Chidi-Ogbolu said she’s always been the youngest person in her classes. While most students from Nigeria graduate high school at the age of 16, Chidi-Ogbolu finished high school particularly early, at 14, since she skipped 5th grade and attended an accelerated high school.

After high school, she left Nigeria for America and enrolled full-time at Howard University, a historically black university and her first-choice school.
http://college.usatoday.com/2017/06/01/she-just-graduated-college-and-is-starting-her-ph-d-and-shes-only-18/

BusinessRe: Akwa Ibom Govt Gives Traders 31 Day Ultimatum To Reduce Price Of Foodstuff by 4Play(m): 8:12am On Jun 08, 2017
Normally, I will be against all manner of government-mandated price fixing but it looks like the government here is trying to curtail price fixing by a cartel. If the government can pull it off, that will be excellent.
Foreign AffairsRe: South Africa Slips Into Its Second Recession In 8 Years by 4Play(m): 12:58pm On Jun 06, 2017
9jakohai:
No....just to show both of them have the same issue...reliance on one resource....which in South Africa's case is its diamonds and platinum.(I.e...both are badly managed).

South Africa does have a viable industrial sector...but thanks to years of arphateid...there aren't enough black technicians to man the industries.(And its steel industry has lost out to cheap steel from China).

Then add corruption (Jacob Zuma has a lot of cases on his head) and an economy based on sharing money in the name of welfare....and you get the picture.

The leader of the Opposition Democratic Alliance was talking about diversificaiton a few months ago...which shows you what's up.
Pseudo-intellectual twaddle.

South Africa has barely cracked the 4% GDP growth mark in the last 20 to 30 years due to a failure to liberalise their economy. Growth has averaged 3% in the post-apartheid era so it doesn't take much to go into minus territory.

This is not a mono-resources story. Mining is a major sector of their economy but they are by no means solely dependent on it (not even Nigeria is solely dependent on oil). Their economy is at a much higher level of development. This is more of a loss of investor confidence story - in this way Jacob Zuma mirrors Buhari.
Foreign AffairsRe: South Africa Slips Into Its Second Recession In 8 Years by 4Play(m): 12:33pm On Jun 06, 2017
I am sure they have put this to front page to make it seem the Nigerian economy is well managed by the Buhari government by comparison.

South Africa's GDP growth has lagged Nigeria's in the post-apartheid era. This is like the Venezuela analogy that Buhari apologists trot out where most don't realise that Venezuela went into recession in 2013.
PoliticsRe: Nigeria’s Debt Rises By N7.1tn In Two Years - Minister of Finance by 4Play(m):
The rise in the FG's debt mirrors the rise in Ogun state's debt under Adeosun's stewardship. For those who attribute Nigeria's present economic malaise solely to Buhari, this is wrong.

You can blame Buhari for the lack of structural reforms, e.g., exchange rate policy and failure to privatise as key examples. But the fiscal policy reflects a view amongst the likes of Adeosun and Udoma that you can "reflate" the economy in the midst of a currency crisis and that Nigeria's infrastructural needs justify a massive debt expansion. This will prove misguided as any debt expansion must be sustainable and anchored on a policy framework that allows the private sector to take a leading role. There is no reason why our railways, air and sea ports ought to be run by a government that has proven incapable of managing anything efficiently.

The government bears the default risk on debt used to finance projects which will be delivered, if at all, way over budget.

All this actually assumes the debt is used to finance capital expenditure, in reality much of it goes to recurrent expenditure which makes prospects much worse.
EducationRe: Where Are The Dullards In Your Class? by 4Play(m): 4:14pm On Jun 03, 2017
This thread should be called "Dullards strike back." You can find examples of some "dullards" that struck it rich and academic prodigies that are dirt poor. But overall, if you are going to invest time and resources in acquiring an education, you are better off making a success of your academics.

I suspect if we can do some research on this, instead of relying on anecdotes, you will find that the academically gifted on average had more life successes than the stunted.
PoliticsFG Spends Two-thirds Of Tax Revenue On Debt Servicing - Business Day by 4Play(op): 10:29pm On Jun 01, 2017
The Federal Government of Nigeria’s fiscal deficit ran at a 12-month high in the month of February, according to data provided by the Central Bank, as actual revenues flunked budget targets and officials overshot spending.

At N404.9 billion in February, the deficit is almost four times the monthly provisional budget estimate of N185 billion, with the government amassing debt at a frantic pace to shore up ailing revenues.

Retained revenue came to 58 percent of the budget estimate, at N194 billion, as opposed to N337 billion, while total expenditure was N599 billion, 14.7 percent more than the budgeted N522 billion for the said month.

The biggest shortfall came from non-oil gross revenues, which flunked estimates by nearly 50 percent, the CBN monthly report showed.

Pressed to spend its way out of an economic slump, the first such slump in over two decades, Nigerian lawmakers approved a 2017 spending plan of N7.4 trillion in May. The budget has a N2.36 trillion deficit to be plugged through borrowing.

The government has now missed revenue targets for the second month running, after January actual revenues turned out 50 percent less than planned.

To implement the budget, disappointing revenues will cause government to borrow more than planned and some capital expenditure may suffer, according to Pabina Yinkere, head of institutional business at Lagos-based Vetiva Capital. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the 2017 budget deficit will hit 3.7 percent of GDP from 2.8 percent last year.

“In the first quarter, government sold bonds at record pace to make up for the shortfall,” Yinkere observed.

The Debt Management Office (DMO) raised N750 billion in bonds in the last five months, according to data compiled by BusinessDay. At its last auction of FGN bonds, however, it struggled to raise the total amount it wanted, as investors looked away in search for higher yields.

“More attractive returns are available for almost all NTBs,” said Gregory Kronsten, head of fixed income research at FBN Quest.

“Additionally, the step-up in fx interventions by the CBN since March, has reduced banks’ free funds to invest in debt markets,” Kronsten said by email.

The DMO sought to raise N140 billion but managed just N105 billion. For the three-year benchmark (Jul ‘21s) it collected N10 billion, rather than its target of N40 billion.

“Such is the DMO’s determination to contain the FGN’s borrowing costs,” Kronsten said. “Its successful front-loading of issuance in the first quarter has given it some welcome room for manoeuvre.”

Various analysts, and more recently, the World Bank, have expressed concerns over Nigeria’s debt profile, citing the inadequacy of current revenues to sustain interest rate payments. At the recent IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, Catherine Pattillo, Assistant Director and Head of Fiscal Policy and Surveillance Division of the IMF, pointed out that Nigeria’s interest payment to tax revenue has more than doubled to 66 percent.
http://www.businessdayonline.com/revenue-shortfalls-push-fgs-fiscal-deficit-12-month-high/

The 3 things in bold stand out: N750bn debt added over a 5 month period, debt servicing costs equates to 66% of tax revenue and the disappointing fall in non-oil tax revenues.

If debt servicing costs rise faster than tax revenues, it will make the debt profile unsustainable. The upside is that it might force the government to do what they should have done ab initio - reduce spending. Applying fiscal stimulus in a currency crisis is counterproductive.
PoliticsRe: Will Igbos Be Deported From Nigeria If Biafra Is Declared? by 4Play(m): 10:25pm On May 31, 2017
This thread hints at something but it misses a larger picture: in a hypothetical scenario where Biafra is actualised for Igbos it will fundamentally change the calculus for other Southern ethnic groups. Whether Igbos get to visit the rest of Nigeria in a post-Biafra world is a bit of a red herring.

Assume, for the sake of simplicity, that Nigeria has a population equally distributed among the 6 geo-political zones with the North having 50% of the population. A Biafra for Igbos could mean 1/6th of the Nigerian populace but, more importantly, 1/3rd of the Southern populace leaving Nigeria. This will radically skew political power to the advantage of Northern Nigeria (yes, not a cohesive region but exhibiting some degree of coordination by comparison to the South).

The North will constitute 3/5th and come close to (if not now but eventually with higher birth rates*) 2/3rds of the rest of Nigeria. The rest of Nigeria would be unquestionably a Northern and Muslim majority nation. In such a scenario, many of the Southern ethnic groups would not want to remain in Nigeria and this would accelerate further disintegration.

In reality, Biafra independence would cause absolute mayhem for everyone and to me would be impossible to execute (at least peacefully). It's clear that most intelligent people grasp this: indeed, anti-Biafra sentiments (amongst Igbos and non-Igbos) is driven not by any great sense that the Igbos or Nigeria will be a great loss but the apprehension that Biafra will precipitate chaos for the whole of the South.

*There is an argument that with higher birth rates, the "North" will be a more entrenched hegemony over time. Remember the saying, "demography is destiny."

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