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Nigerians will be poorer. We will be confined to Abacha era growth rates: weak GDP growth which will be less than population growth. Buharists, the ones left, will hail forex reserves growth (reserves grew 1700% under Abacha too from $500m to $9bn at one point) and tokenist anti-corruption moves whilst ethnic divisions are amped up. Not going to be fun. |
zombieTRACKER:Some people still support him because they don't want to lose face. They are emotionally invested in the decision to support him. Acknowledging Buhari's failure is an indictment to them of their knowledge, intellect and judgement. Their usual go to card is to assert that GEJ would have been worse! A vacuous whataboutery that elevates opinion to the level of fact. |
PDP simply by sheer longevity. APC is still a new party but are rapidly making up for lost time. |
It is clear GEJ bears a big chunk of responsibility for the lack of savings as he and Yar'Adua supported the tripling of public sector wages which is the main source of the increased strain on public finances and the forex reserves. However, the governors could have saved more. Some states managed this. The CBN governor did not need to expend so much forex in a vain attempt to keep the exchange rate stable. Pressure on forex manifested as a result of the tripling of public sector wages which increased consumption of imported goods. Lastly, Nigerians lacked the will to save as one can see in the fuel subsidy protest (subsidy is a drain on resources). |
omenkaLives:I think Omohayek's query on education undermines the premise of what is being argued which in crude politically incorrect terms is that Yorubas are better off than Igbos. University education in Nigeria is self-funded costing a fortune (relative to the income of the typical Nigerian) and data that suggests some ethnic groups like the Igbos acquire university education more than others is a better proxy for the concentration/distribution of wealth/income by ethnic origin than data proxying for population like number of phone/internet subscriptions per state. Remember that in Nigeria, you are required to provide your state of origin when filling education-related application forms (NYSC, JAMB, WAEC e.t.c). No similar requirement exists when purchasing an MTN line. Just a bit more on proxies for wealth vs population. Note the data on bank deposits by state[url] https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/nairametrics.com/bank-credit-and-deposit-by-states-in-nigeria-2015/amp/[/url]. We know in Nigeria that 90% of retail deposits belong to 2% of the population: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.vanguardngr.com/2016/06/2-nigerians-90-bank-deposits-ndic/amp/. So again, higher bank deposits in Anambra may reflect higher wealth concentration amongst Anambrians (In this case, the data underestimates the concentration as it's gathered by location not state of origin). One last wealth proxy is FAAN's air traffic stats. We know the average Nigerian cannot afford air travel so air travel, being costly, might be a decent proxy for wealth concentration. Owerri airport had 104k flights in Q4 2016, Ibadan 17k, Ilorin 18k and Akure 4k (This disparity is same for other quarters). Please search for: Q1 2017 AIR TRANSPORTATION DATA.cdr - National Bureau of Statistics PDFnigerianstat.gov.ng › download Stats in Nigeria are not great and what we have are proxies which we interpret as we prefer. Gross total of IGR/GDP/phone lines/internet subscription per state are touted as signs that the natives of the states with higher numbers are better off than the inverse (Kaduna indigenes are better off than Ondo indigenes according to this logic). My takeaway is that GDP is much higher in the South West than the South East. The peripatetic natives of states like Anambra, Imo and Abia may have more substantial minorities with high income/wealth concentration (It's possible that this reflects income/wealth disparities across the various ethnicities' entire populations on a per capita basis and assessed by state of origin). So Igbo braggarts like EternalTruths, as bigoted as he is, may be closer to some truth: not exactly that Igbos developed Lagos and Abuja all by themselves but that their dispersed population may have a higher wealth concentration. |
Nigeria was due for hard times before Buhari took over but Buhari's actions and inactions compounded the difficulties. For instance, the decision to fix the exchange rate exacerbated the dollar scarcity problem, accelerating capital flight. According to the government's own data, the economy started contracting in 2016, almost a year after Buhari assumed the presidency. Having taken over leadership, he exercised no sense of urgency in dealing with the dire economic situation and took months to appoint ministers who help set and implement policies. The list of issues the OP has made were already known when Buhari was promising heaven and earth to Nigerians (stabilising exchange rate, reducing unemployment, e.t.c). It is no good coming now to state that Nigerians have too high expectations when Buhari and his supporters were at the forefront of setting sky high expectations of what he can accomplish. |
He looks at face value a decent candidate, as decent as one can get within Nigeria's flawed political environment. Certainly better than some of the laughable reprobates we keep hearing about like Atiku, Rochas and Fayose. The problem is that he hasn't got the name recognition to compete with Buhari. A Sanusi, ex-CBN governor, presidential candidacy would have been better but improbable in reality. |
smirn:Your post encapsulates why Nigeria is doomed. Economically illiterate and full of pie in the sky exhortations divorced from reality. The strange thing is that many "educated" Nigerians share this mindset. Your solution is that fuel sellers should stop selling fuel and Nigerians should stop buying fuel. No amount of suasion would address the fundamental point: the price of petrol rises with the price of crude oil. If I may ask, what do you do for a living and what do you think would happen if the government decided to fix the price you demand for your labour below the cost of supplying it? |
Local refineries are not the solution to Nigeria's chronic fuel scarcity problem. A local refinery will still have to buy crude at roughly same price as say a refinery in Texas (anything else would amount to a subsidy). The primary benefit of a local refinery is not having to transport refined fuel from abroad into Nigeria, so a saving on transport costs. However, business costs in Nigeria are high due to poor infrastructure and having to provide your own electricity, water, security, e.t.c. So it's not clear Dangote's refinery, for instance, will solve the problem. |
Surely his ex-teammates can help him. The likes of Henry and Drogba, the latter his national team mate, are still wealthy. I don't think the courts help matters by awarding all assets, as this article claims, to an ex-partner following divorce. A 50-50 split seems a fairer deal unless they thought he was hiding assets in Ivory Coast. |
Eleven years ago he was lining up to take part in the biggest club match in world football.https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/arsenal-emmanuel-eboue-skint-bailiffs-11746303.amp
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Sapiosexuality:Spot on! Don't be surprised that when the fuel scarcity is over, Buhari will be congratulated for ending it. It's like being punched in the head and congratulating the puncher when the punches stop. A week ago, there was a thread celebrating Nigerian Customs revenue for hitting the N1 trillion mark when the revenue is a function of the official exchange rate. They were in effect celebrating the collapse of the Naira's value. Nigerians have weak memories and arguably weaker intellect. |
This is yet another fuel scarcity thread but I thought I create one to make a point on a topical issue. In previous posts, I have noted what I see as a fundamental misdiagnosis of Nigeria's problems: the notion that Nigeria's difficulties stem mainly from corruption. In my view, Nigeria's primary challenge is policy ineptitude, corruption ranks a distant second. The present fuel scarcity crisis, caused by the foolhardy policy of fixing fuel prices by government fiat, illustrates this vividly. Like we have had with the collapsing Naira until rising oil prices bailed us out, the government's insistence on fixing the pump price (a supposedly people-friendly idea) has resulted in a scarcity of the commodity whose price the government is regulating. This is not a corruption issue but a classic illustration of the downside of command economics. The rise in oil prices, whilst good in stabilising the Naira, requires that fuel marketers sell fuel at a higher price, or the government increases the subsidy it provides. This is what happened in 2011 as rising oil prices meant that the government faced an escalating subsidy bill. Unfortunately, Nigerians with a penchant for morality-based analysis saw the issue then as a simple corruption story. Today, we are faced with paying more for fuel than was contemplated in 2011 and 2012. |
Mofe72:What these people don't get is that the build up of the reserves is not necessarily a reflection of sound economic management. Reserves went up from $500m in 1993 to $9bn in 1997 (an increase of 1,900%) during the Abacha era as the currency lost value and oil prices stabilised. The exchange rate is the "price" at which reserves are built up and oil prices/forex inflow is the income which pays for the price. It is cheaper to build up reserves at N360 to $1 than at N220 to $1 so comparing the total stock of reserves at significantly different exchange rates reflects economic illiteracy. More importantly, and as you allude to, economic growth is weak to non-existent for most Nigerians. Reserves are meant to act as a buffer against sudden economic shocks, hence focusing on them is a bit of red herring when the economy is barely growing. |
Leystra:Economic illiterates use the US debt as an analogy without understanding that the US is borrowing in its own currency, that the US is a superpower with a currency which acts as the world's reserve currency. Nigeria is borrowing in a foreign currency with the intent of paying back with local currency tax revenues. By doing this, it risks significant problems in the form of currency depreciation. |
Typical command economics which ruined Venezuela. Why would Aso Rock think it knows more than credit market participants like banks about the optimal interest rate to charge farmers? Given the persistent and undoutable history of market-intervention failures by the Nigerian government, these things are best left to the private sector to decide. Sometimes, there are market failures which the government can help remedy. But the high rate of interest rate in Nigeria is a reflection of structural factors: poor infrastructure, low investor confidence manifested in weak currency values, excess money supply, e.t.c. Simply decreeing low interest rate for a sector isn't the solution. I suspect such low interest loans will largely end up in the hands of the politically connected. |
Don't forget that with a rise in oil prices comes a rise in subsidy costs for Nigeria. |
massinola:To the contrary, this is good for their line of work. The more negative issues/newsflow there are to deal with, the more their services are required. If the government was a spectacular success, there would be no need for BMC. Failures provide nourishment for this line of work. |
This is a fabricated story: it's unlikely the US will question an ambassadorial nominee on grounds of age. For those who blame Buhari, this choice most likely reflects the preference of the Foreign Minister - Godfrey Onyeama. |
Professor Osinbajo said this after the Minister of Labour and Productivity, Dr Chris Ngige, interrupted his speech to pass him information.This is more likely miscommunication. Nigeria's Sovereign Wealth Fund only just hit the $2bn mark: Nigeria’s sovereign wealth fund stood at $2 billion this month with the investment agency seeking further growth through agriculture and the addition of asset management, its chief executive officer said.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-06/nigerian-sovereign-wealth-fund-now-at-2-billion-ceo-orji-says |
raker300:They post the same flyovers within 10 minute drives of each other. |
domchike:If you read the article it says the debt is the cost of road construction/reconstruction projects. Such costs are not normally included, in calculating the size of a government's debt, as they can choose to discontinue the contracts. If we were to include such debt for every government, the debt stock will multiply astronomically. |
ikp120:Your 3.5 trillion Naira is just for the FG's wage bill. State governments will also have to pay the proposed wage increase. |
ikp120:It should be obvious that both state govts and the FG are struggling to pay current wages, yet we are hearing calls for a quintupling of wages. They seem to think that there is a bottomless pit full of money that our govt can access. None of the recent debt-financing news, such as the plan to borrow $5.5bn, has shaped their reasoning. For those who talk about corrupt legislators and govt officials, such talk is a red herring. Ending the greed of our rulers would not be sufficient to balance our books. What this hints at is the flawed belief Nigerians have that corruption alone explains our underdevelopment. Nigerians think once you end corruption, everything will be fine. It is this way of reasoning that paved the way for Buhari to become president. Reality is more nuanced: corruption is just one of many obstacles. Policy ineptitude is a bigger problem and yes, awarding significant increases in salary that strain govt finances is a good example of policy ineptitude. |
My main gripe with CBN appointments is the lack of appointees with a PhD in Economics. The central bank's responsibilities are intellectually tasking and should not be left to people with passable CVs - usually a career with a local bank. My understanding is that she has replaced Sarah Alade who had a PhD in Economics. I think there is a tendency to fill these roles with people who don't have the gravitas or the intellectual chops to execute what is a fiendishly complex set of responsibilities whilst resisting political pressure. |
From my understanding of this article, to put the ongoing practice of debt-financed recurrent expenditure on firmer legal footing, the Federal Government is seeking a new law to explicitly authorise this: ABUJA, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Nigeria’s government has asked parliament to amend its spending law to enable a debt program to settle 2.7 trillion naira ($8.6 bln) worth of obligations including pensions and salary arrears, according to a letter from Vice President Yemi Osinbajo.https://uk.reuters.com/article/nigeria-economy/update-1-nigeria-asks-senate-to-amend-law-for-govt-to-settle-2-7-trillion-naira-debt-idUKL8N1M75UC |
There is an argument that this is not as alarming as it looks as given TSA which meant FG's deposits being stored with the CBN, the CBN's lending to the FG is backstopped by the FG's deposits. There is a good article on this on Nairametrics. See extract below: As the banker to the FGN, and following the implementation of the Treasury Single Account (TSA), the CBN is the natural domicile for FGN deposits. Gleaning through the numbers reveals that FGN borrowings look like a cash backed loan as effectively the FGN borrows against its own deposits with the CBN. Looking at trends, after holding steady then declining in 2014-16, FGN deposits jumped in 2015 as the TSA effectively sequestered all deposits from the banking system into the CBN to N5.26tr. Hence, the FG is merely taking an overdraft facility against its own deposits.Source: https://nairametrics.com/analysis-cbns-deficit-financing-fg-not-thought/ Government finances in Nigeria are quite opaque so it's difficult to get a true picture but there is a clear legality issue with what the CBN is doing. I am not too worried about the crowding out effect per se: in a currency crisis, reducing private sector credit growth is not as damaging as it looks. If I was a business person in Nigeria, I would be quite open to borrowing in Naira simply to buy forex so curtailing private sector credit growth may in perverse sense be beneficial as it reduces the amount of Naira available for currency speculation. The glaring problem here is the FG's dogged insistence on "fiscal stimulus" in the midst of stagflation. By running an expansionary fiscal policy, the trajectory of growth in government debt is unsustainable preparing the grounds for a future crisis. It is this attempt to engineer a stimulus that forces the CBN to break the law and provide funding to the FG. |
buygala:You are preaching to gullible ignoramuses. Yes, we should celebrate our high achievers but we shouldn't do so by indulging in exaggerated and dishonest narratives to generate internet traffic. Grade inflation in the UK and the US makes first class/distinction scores more common place than is the case with Nigerian schools. We should stop claiming that Nigerians have broken academic records: does anyone wonder why these tales of record breaking only appear on Nigerian sites? This is like the Emeagwali phenomenon: we take something that has an ounce of truth but spin it beyond recognition in the service of a bragfest. |
ndidibabe:UK universities are businesses that earn money via high fees. The business model encourages grade inflation: The number of first class degrees being handed out to graduates at British universities has soared to make up almost a quarter of all degrees awarded.[url]https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/News/education/education-university-grade-first-numbers-soar-grade-inflation-warning-a7849936.html%3famp[/url] If you know enough about universities here, you will quickly realise that scoring above 70% in all your degree courses is actually relatively common in the UK. |
I don't think the University of Hertfordshire uses a 5.0 CGPA scale (I stand to be corrected) to grade graduates and it's unlikely she has "broken" a record. Universities in the UK are generous with marks for a number of reasons: academics is a lucrative fee generator. So it is relatively normal, relative to Nigeria, for some students to graduate with A grade (70% gets you an A) in every course module. This is a phenomenon known as grade inflation. You should take any claims sourced from a blog with a pinch of salt. |
Capital inflow was $2.67bn in the last full quarter of GEJ's rule: It said, “Capital importation totaled $2.67bn in Nigeria in the opening quarter of 2015, giving the lowest value observed over the last two years of review.http://www.nigeriacommunicationsweek.com.ng/news/nbs-pegs-1q2015-investment-inflow-declines-at-267bn We are now celebrating significantly lower levels of investor inflow than was the case under the previous government. This is nonetheless a much needed improvement than what we have become accustomed to. |
The NBS has a penchant for nonsensical statistics. |
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... Not to talk of the ones who grabbed their 1st class degree from OAU by the whiskers... 4.51... 4.57... but still bagged distinctions in Harvard or Cambridge