₦airaland Forum

yeddy99:
How do you reconcile figure of almost X4 when naira only did approx X2?

I thought over this too.
But maybe some metrics we are not aware of… we are not even sure what rates they used for the initial translation.

aj8:
Guess which big banks rank the top 3 with the highest Foreign Currency Translation Reserves and their order as at 1st January 2023 ?

1. First Bank N53.7bill
2. UBA. N41.7bill
3. Access N30.1bill
4. Zenith Bank N24.95bill
5. FCMB. N12.5bill
6. GTCO. (-N4.bill)

All as at 1st January 2023.

Should influence income statement in H1and[b] if the ratio of First Bank is anything to go by i.e N53.667 to N210.16 bill = x3.916 [/b], the maths could be interesting. Let’s see how the maths plays out with Zenith Bank H1 first.

aj8:
Big banks Foreign Currency Translation Reserves could predict what to expect with respect to the FVC boost in their income statement. I will first share that of First Bank group and subsequently those of the other big banks to give some insight into what we might possibly expect. Here we go:

First Bank Q1 vs H1

Guess which big banks rank the top 3 with the highest Foreign Currency Translation Reserves and their order as at 1st January 2023 ?

Big banks Foreign Currency Translation Reserves could predict what to expect with respect to the FVC boost in their income statement. I will first share that of First Bank group and subsequently those of the other big banks to give some insight into what we might possibly expect. Here we go:

First Bank Q1 vs H1

Boshins:
anyone that picked japual at 1.47 is a learner. He will learn with time.

Research! Research!! Research!!! A must to minimize risks. Caution ⚠️ Need to filter noise.

lostinHeaven:
Morgans BID/OFFER table for UBA makes no sense

Do kindly share a snap shot.

I am buying more Stanbic @57.1500. The other banks are responding positively to the prospects . Target now N90.00

aj8:
Net gains or losses on financial instruments held at Fair Value Through Profit or Loss (FVTPL) refer to the overall changes in the fair value of these instruments over a specific period. Financial instruments held at FVTPL are assets or liabilities that the company chooses to measure at fair value, with changes in fair value recognized in the income statement.

Here's a breakdown of the key components:

Financial Instruments: These are assets or liabilities that are categorized as "held for trading" or are designated as FVTPL by the company. These instruments can include stocks, bonds, derivatives, and other marketable securities.
Fair Value: Fair value represents the estimated market value of the financial instrument on a specific reporting date. It is the price that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants.
Net Gains or Losses: Net gains occur when the fair value of financial instruments increases over the reporting period, while net losses occur when the fair value decreases. The net gains or losses are calculated by comparing the fair value of the financial instruments at the end of
the reporting period with their fair value at the beginning of the period.
Recognition in Income Statement: The net gains or losses on financial instruments held at FVTPL are recognized in the company's income statement. They contribute to the overall profit or loss for the period.
It's important to note that holding financial instruments at FVTPL can lead to greater earnings volatility, as the fair value changes are directly reflected in the income statement. This is in contrast to other accounting categories like "Available for Sale" or "Held to Maturity," where changes in fair value may not immediately impact the income statement.

The treatment of financial instruments, including those held at FVTPL, is subject to accounting standards and regulations, such as International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), which may vary depending on the country and the specific circumstances of the company.


Credited to chatGPT.

In simple terms
E.g a company that holds $1,000,000 bonds @Naira value of N450, must if now the USD is valued at N800 , must reflect the difference as gain on the income statement. That would in the above example, add N350,000,000 as gain thereby affecting the final income statement

Net gains or losses on financial instruments held at Fair Value Through Profit or Loss (FVTPL) refer to the overall changes in the fair value of these instruments over a specific period. Financial instruments held at FVTPL are assets or liabilities that the company chooses to measure at fair value, with changes in fair value recognized in the income statement.

Here's a breakdown of the key components:

Financial Instruments: These are assets or liabilities that are categorized as "held for trading" or are designated as FVTPL by the company. These instruments can include stocks, bonds, derivatives, and other marketable securities.
Fair Value: Fair value represents the estimated market value of the financial instrument on a specific reporting date. It is the price that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants.
Net Gains or Losses: Net gains occur when the fair value of financial instruments increases over the reporting period, while net losses occur when the fair value decreases. The net gains or losses are calculated by comparing the fair value of the financial instruments at the end of the reporting period with their fair value at the beginning of the period.
Recognition in Income Statement: The net gains or losses on financial instruments held at FVTPL are recognized in the company's income statement. They contribute to the overall profit or loss for the period.
It's important to note that holding financial instruments at FVTPL can lead to greater earnings volatility, as the fair value changes are directly reflected in the income statement. This is in contrast to other accounting categories like "Available for Sale" or "Held to Maturity," where changes in fair value may not immediately impact the income statement.

The treatment of financial instruments, including those held at FVTPL, is subject to accounting standards and regulations, such as International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), which may vary depending on the country and the specific circumstances of the company.


Credited to chatGPT.

Mpeace:
They had to release this result early to end the closed period on time before Oba takes up all the shares. If not, when last did fbnh release results this early.

First Bank is just being smart. Element of surprise. Most banks will issue similar results because of Net gains or losses on financial instruments held at Fair Value Through Profit or Loss (FVTPL) . Watch out for Stanbic IBTC.

Mpeace:
Jesus, see result.
Eps from 1.55 to 5.19.
You no go see this one buy tomorrow
If they replicate this accross the othe remaining quarter, fbnh might just climb to 100/share.

Expect similar results from all the banks. A huge chunk were from Net gains or losses on financial instruments held at Fair Value Through Profit or Loss (FVTPL) . Probably recalibration on the new exchange rates. Expect extreme volatility. Need for extreme caution ⚠️.

Agbalowomeri:
You came in late probably

It’s all about entry. Timing. Understanding the market you are in is key. Whether stock market or crayfish market all are markets. Buy when cheap or on sales… technical analysis or not. Understanding is key. Keep it simple.

vacanci:
From 770 to 860 is 12%.

meaning if you brought in $1000 and you want to take it back as it is, you have lost 12%.

Now the question is, what was your profit in the NGX? Your statement is only valid if you have neither lost nor gained in the NGX.

If you have lost in the NGX, then your overall loss is more than 12%
If you have gained in the NGX, then your 12% loss claimed is not valid.

example, let's convert the $1000 at 770, that will give us N770,000
N770,000 invested in the NGX must have been during this bull run going by the rate. so lets assume you had 20% (excluding charges). This gives N924,000.
N924,000 converted back to $ @860 gives $1,074

So your asertion is not right pls

For completeness, also factor the opportunity cost of holding the funds in a US bond market ( 3-5%) . The Ngx is still a good market to invest nonetheless buy at the right price. E.g assuming you had bought UBA @ 7.85…..the lyrics surely would sound different

The beauty of My COMPOUNDING STRATEGY
FROM N1,000,000
Step 0..N1,000,000
Step 1…N1,200,000
Step 2…N1,440,000
Step 3…N1,728,000
Step 4…N2,073,600
Step 5…N2,488,320
Step 6…N2,985,984
Step 10..N6,191,736

Roll over from stock to stock. Make provisions for charges too. You can hold unto any purchase you adjudge capable of another 20% price appreciation or else find another good one to roll over to. Best for those who want to build up capital or may not want to expose themselves to greater capital risks. ONLY GO FOR STOCKS WITH GOOD FUNDAMENTALS AND TRACK RECORDS . YOU CAN USE THE NGX ASI OR SECTOR INDEX TO GAUGE MOMENTUM. BUY ON DECLINE WHEN BEARISH.

You can scale up or down according to your pocket and risk appetite. Pay attention to both local and foreign news so that events don’t catch you unawares

I believe we are here to help one another. N’est pas?

Bought Stanbic at 54.1500. My COMMON SENSE BUY POINT IS N55.00. Will buy more if it falls below my entry point. Target N75.00

MY COMMON SENSE ENTRY POINT for Berger Paints as at 19-07-2023 is any price below N10.00 . TARGET above N12.00 with an upside target above 20%. I bought some units and will add more to my purchase if it falls below my initial buy point.

veecovee:
Loco, I took the risk of buying some of your japaul this morning.

Readers who can't take it should not join oo

My COMMON SENSE ENTRY POINT for Japaulgold as at 19-07-2023 is 0. TARGET NIL

Any comments?

Deadlytruth:
Exactly.
Otedola's name might just be the SA fuel. Imagine a volume of over 4bn in just a day.

Who offloaded is also important. Some of these transacts are actually rescue missions. TRANSCORP is no exemption. If the buyer has an eye for value, the buyer can transform the company positively, then magic can occur. Sometimes the magic takes a while to happen or may never happen. We must be guided by the F/ value of any stock.

RabbiDoracle:
You seem green in this field and want to learn. We have been investing since 2006. We saw the euphoria of 2006 till March 2008. Many people lost money. I lost some too especially on IPOs, PO but I had a good paying job that made me not bother about the loss.

People made huge money pumping NSE index in 2008 to 66,200 or so. 2008 was a wave 5 of the bullish trend that started in September1999 when NSE index was at 4,900. From that time till 2008, NSE index rose 1,250%.

Once you have a parabolic rise as seen between 2006 to 2008 on NSE INDEX chart, it is usually followed by a sharp decline/corrections. For such corrections, you should hardly invest in them. You should trade them because they are bound to reverse.

And since 2008 till date, NSE index has not touched the 66,200 made then.



In every of such correction, the price makes ABC moves using Elliot Wave. Wave A ended around 2012 when NSE index was at 19,400 during Sanusi Lamido saga. Wave B should go high enough but the peaks seen in 2014 and 2018 doesn't match the specifications described in ELLIOT wave. And the trough of 2018 wave did not clear Wave A (made in 2012).

Then comes the rise after pandemic. The peak hit almost 56,000 in 2023 which correctly describes a Wave B based on the calculations. And coincidentally as could been seen today, all the negative news started coming out around the world about Moody downgrade of Nigerian banks, German recession, crude oil price drop, US defaults, US banking crisis, Chinese downgrade of US AAA ratings, virus resurgence in China, deadly fungi in US and Mexico blah blah blah.

This tells one that we still have a downtrend to go. Wave C needs to clear 2012 low of 19,400. Hence I had to estimate a drop to 18,900 to have a completion of the correction that started in 2008.

If this dares happen, then one can say where the next wave will take us to. We wait to see.

Note: Wave C is usually vicious just like the type we saw in 2020.

"It is not the hunter who spends the most time in the forest that catches the biggest kill."

Scary scenario!!!!

OBAGADAFFI:
Before selling off, I always keep a few units of my shares i.e 5 units.

Keeping a few units will keep your account active with the registrars, no need e-dividend.

But zero units make your account inactive after a while, you might need to do another e-dividend.

Thank you 🙏

Mfunkynation:
Could it the reasons why people are selling it off

Probably the huge impairments for credit losses. Quite troubling.

aremso:
Anyway, it depends on you as an individual. Just look at whatever works fine for u and stick to it, to me the best sector to grow your investments funds is banking sector so it depends on you. If i get zenith at 17 to 20 and i will get 2.80 net dividends and the stock get to 26 for me i will not wait for the dividends i will sell and go back to patience mode till it comes down again till i grow my investment funds to my targeted level before i finally settle for the dividends. Just check the price history of all of them.

I totally agree. I look for an entry close to the previous 52 week low and target a price = 10x probable dividend as long as the quarterly results show continued growth. Alternatively, just settle for dividends YOY again as long as the stock shows continued growth in their quarterly results. Any signs of weakness would of course call for a reassessment of one’s holding.

essentialone:
#Recommendation

UNILEVER

Buy more, Hold on, or Sell off?

It’s a Sell for me
1. EPS =1.10 ..even if they payout 80% of earnings, still not good enough based on the current price of the stock 12.20 Naira
2. Inconsistent earnings and revenue
3. No recent insider trades

Already overpriced for me.

Solidprof:
Looking at between 5 to 7 years. Just planning to gradually build a stock portfolio.....

Sounds good. However from personal experience, I would like to point out the following: 1. Buy when the stocks are “on sale” ..a good analogy would be buying a shirt from M & S Marks and Spencer. You would agree that the best time would be when the shirt is on sale when the price is the cheapest. A price around the 52-week low is good enough as long as the company has good fundamentals. For UBA, this is 6.55 Naira. 2. Once I hit 20% above my purchase price, I reappraise. If the stock can make a further 20%, I hang onto it provided it’s below my set target price as discussed in 3. Set a target price to either offload stocks or to reappraise to hang on further…(see 2) or To determine a good target price, I compute roughly based on what I consider a good return, which for me is at least 10% beyond my initial investment ( stock price x number of shares) + fees. For EPS I simply multiply by X4-5 to fix a target or X10 for Dividend to fix a target and go by whichever is lower. Eg if UBA EPS is v, so computed target based on this would be 10 x v=10v. , which for UBA is approximately 3.39 x 4———3.39x 5 = 13.56-16.95 and (or) 10 x dividends ( use the final not interim) which for UBA would be 10 x 0.80= 8.00 Naira. I use the lower which in this case is 8.00 Naira in anticipation of dividends of 80 kobo or 10.00 if in anticipation of 1.00 Naira final dividends. allowing at least a 10% return on my investment should I buy below 8.00 for a dividend of 80k or below 10.00 for dividends of 1.00 Naira. However, you can anticipate higher dividends if insider trades suggest something brewing and compute based on what could seem possible till the results are released. You would easily see from the above that buying low and selling around the above guidance is immensely profitable. You need patience. Don’t jump into every price, wait till it’s “on sale”. Any price above these figures is simply overvalued for me, not unless I am willing to settle for lower than 10% or pray that investors would continue to overprice the stock and I will be able to profit from price appreciation. This is in no way financial advice, please do due diligence and research before you commit your hard-earned money to anything. I would be happy to illuminate further should you consider this useful or just dump it into the nearby bin. Cheers.

Solidprof:
For a long term investment, if you are to pick 2 out of these 3 banking stocks, which will you go for; ZENITHBANK, GTCO and STANBIC ?

How long do you plan to hold the investment?

Wapgod:
Lol. You are wrong.
It's undervalued, yes.
But it's a useless reit in more than one way.

Overvalued.

I am new to this forum. Currently reading old posts from page 1. Thank you to the initiator of this forum and all those that keep the information flowing. Big thumb up. Forgive me if my questions have already been addressed, guessed I haven’t gotten to the answers yet. Question
1. Where can I buy an aerator ? Ship to Umuahia please. Solar powered preferably. 10x10x4 tarpaulin pond. 1000 fish

“The child waits for a raging fire to go off, but the wise will douse it with water”

peteregwu:
Be careful selling gold for now. Gold is hot cake all over the world now.

Noted.

@Saxy4L, when are we selling Gold? What’s your analysis?

peteregwu:
Buying gold @ 1869 tp 1900

peteregwu:
Buying gold @ 1869 tp 1900

peteregwu:
Buying gold @ 1869 tp 1900

peteregwu:
Buying gold @ 1869 tp 1900

peteregwu:
Buying gold @ 1869 tp 1900

I think there may be a fall to 1833/18 before this happens once Gold hits 1888. But ask the gurus though. I still be novice .