BabsO2's Posts
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emmanuelewumi:That means early birds had a much lower entry point than the equivalent 2013 NASD N17.5 listing price of a share currently sold now on NGX, for the price to have fallen as low as N10 equivalent. A question is how many shares were exchanged at N200 (equivalent of N10 per split shares) currently selling on NGX. That's a x70 bagger for those that bought the low and sold immediately on NGX listing. And the x70 excludes dividends already collected If rate of ARADEL NASD listing drop repeated on NGX it translates to a low of approx N430 in NGX. Traded price on Friday close was N445.6 Looks like a repeat is likely. Perhaps with a higher depth of drop as NGX is more liquid. |
BabsO2:Should ARADEL get to N320, I may take a sit on the bus. But will it drop as low as N320? That's in the hand of the major seller that might have gotten it at lower prices than the listing price in 2013. |
ARADEL started trading in 2013 at N350 on NASD. With the x20 share split, that means a share being sold on the NGX right now was bought at a price of N17.5 in 2013. Current book value per share (BVPS) and EPS of ARADEL based on 2024Q3 are N312 and N25.5 respectively. If it continues at same pace as last 9m, at Full year 2024, EPS should be about N34 while book value may remain flat due to interim dividends pay out or rise further up if further naira devaluation takes place in Q4. The company is surely minting money for shareholders with the way PAT's and resulting earnings per share has been growing. Perhaps TA may suggest a good entry point for those interested. |
emmanuelewumi:Please next time you sell shares like Dangotesugar after talking well of it please alert people that may have joined based on the good they heard about the company from you. Now many got trapped in DS thinking you are there, not knowing you had exited at good profit point. Sunripebble alerted he took profit in Aradel. Should it happen, please do alert us before taking some profits in Aradel or at least immediately after taking some profit and not months after. So that people can benefit and not assume you that marketed Aradel management is still fully with load of shares in the bus. |
emmanuelewumi:NAHCO Q3 earnings may be due to summer holidays. There is usually more international travel in that period. So the earnings may not repeat in Q4 |
megawealth01:We are many in the bus . |
emmanuelewumi:You have already done a lot of analysis on OANDO. Well done. Hearing the pros & cons and follow up arguments (discuss & not slurs) enriches our take. Take a break from OANDO and analyze other stocks like DANGOTE SUGAR. NSEMPA will be delighted to see your FA in DS that just fell into negative equity. How will DS come out, what are they doing? e.g. taking ownership of sugarcane farms. Or is it a capital injection that will wipe out current shareholder is the only way out for DS?. |
emmanuelewumi:You said top insiders sold (dumped) their shares. Now you are saying they increased their shares by converting loans to shares. Your two statements are conflicting. Taking pictures of the shareholding at end year 2023 vs 2022 1. The top three shareholders holding 9,100,189,287 (73.21%) maintained their positions. That is not selling or buying more. 2. Shareholders owning between 50,000,001 and 100,000,000 shares increase from from 3 shareholders to 4 shareholders. With average shareholdings in this category reducing from 79.9 million to 73.7 million. But with overalll holdings in this category increasing from 1.93% to 2.38% There were more reductions of shares at the lower end of shareholding perhaps due to fear. Those that had little had some of their little taken away by those that had more. Nearly a story at the MEGA end where 76 less MEGA shareholders shed some shares to 4 more MEGA shareholders.
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emmanuelewumi:The change in share holders between 2022 and 2023 does not support this your allegation of informed insiders selling their shares.
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KarlTom:I think they still have outstanding quarterlies to be released before the suspension can be lifted. At least H1 must be released. Abi what is the rule. |
yMcy56:Make we wait for 2024 Q1, Q2 and Q3 |
mails4funshi:CSL told me to move my account too for one silly reason. Later after they moved it, they started writing me again to please comeback and operate. They appeared confused. Just ignored them. |
emmanuelewumi:Stop taunting us and diverting attention from the Aradel you marketed. Now it feels like MH to those that bought sharp sharp |
yMcy56:NASD is not as liquid as NGX. The seller is not too greedy he wants to give it away at fair price perhaps. And not greedily at N800 to N1,200 that some quoted as fair price for Aradel.And or the seller needs to balance risks and exposure |
phemmie06:Free of subscription? |
Some insights on Sugar from https://punchng.com/fg-seeks-investment-in-africas-7bn-sugar-market/ The Executive Secretary and Chief Executive Officer of NSDC, Kamar Bakrin, said Nigeria’s annual sugar demand sits at approximately two million metric tonnes, valuing the local market at about $2bn, during a recent session with business editors in Lagos. The NSDC boss stressed that recent currency fluctuations have made local sugar production more competitive while presenting challenges for importers. The NSDC announced it has declared 2025 as ‘the year of acceleration’ for the sugar sector, committing to raising the necessary funding and supporting the entry of both local and global investors. “We are taking deliberate action to accelerate local production… Question now is when will Dangote Sugar have sufficient local raw sugar production and have excess for export to generate forex and excellent profits . |
debeey87:I read that online. The question now is when will Dangote Sugar stop importing the raw sugar we can produce locally and source 100% locally and stop the forex waste/losses. It's timing will indicate when a turnaround will be witnessed. Insiders or those in the know will benefit from MH on the information. |
Zagee:Looks like it's Dangote importing raw sugar at the moment, while BUA is producing raw sugar locally in Nigeria. |
ositadima1:And Dangote Sugar is no more getting subsidized forex yanfu yanfu Does BUA produce raw sugar? BUA Group produces raw sugar in Nigeria1 . They have two sugar plantations located in Lafiagi, Kwara State, and Bassa, Kogi State1 . Additionally, BUA operates two sugar refineries in Apapa, Lagos State, and Port Harcourt, Rivers State1 . These facilities process raw sugar and refine it into high-quality products for various industries1 |
nosa2:Doing it improves accuracy of benchmarking with other banks. |
In my own spreadsheet I deducted N500b from GT's PAT as it counted unrealized gains of about that amount in its PAT. Ideally it should be placed under comprehensive income. |
megawealth01:Nah so he MH us with the DANGSUGAR PO that was rated a buy by so so may analyst. But i saw it as a bloated price back then ![]() |
emmanuelewumi:See real Monkey Hunting. Skilled monkey hunting |
emmanuelewumi:I think MBC securities coming on board to take 14% stake is a good flag. Plus the one director who increased his stake. Plus the one substantial share holder who increased stake. Some investments like UCAP in the period you referenced are at stage of potential ShortTerm appreciation (due to clear huge mis-match between market price and intrinsic value) I see Ellah is a long-term play with huge uncertainties. |
ndept:On CBO capital stake reduction, perhaps Olumide Akpata sold some of his stake to finance his Governorship aspiration. I hope Ellah Lakes has good title and doesn't have nearby stakeholders that can constitute security threat to its progress. Uncertainties like these will keep the stock price lower than intrinsic value which can only be clearer after many years. |
megawealth01:May take up more positions like the 1 in 4 directors or like 2 of the listed substantial shareholders. It will be good to watch the directors if they are selling more or buying more in the coming weeks, months and years. Profitability being a long term thing, some directors may sell now (or in prior year) and later buy in time ahead if price dips and they see (know) prospects. A long term play. |
crownprince2017:Why did 3 out of the 4 directors reduce their number of shares in the last one year. However, it is good to see one of the substantial shareholders - Blackman & Co. Ltd - increase stakes. It is also good to see MBC securities springing up to take a 14% stake in the business. Since number of shares in the year increased by 753,786,788 shares it means apart from MBC Securities that took a new 383,738,196 share position, most of the other new positions must have been taken by retail investors.
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megawealth01:It’s due to pains of time past. Pray no new pains ahead. |
![]() ololufemi: |
KarlTom:That's fine also. But Wale paying something before 2024 Christmas is doable based on 2023FY audited if PAT and Cashflow doesn't change materially from the unaudited. Make we see the auditor's opinion wey dey delay things. |
megawealth01:You are changing position. You said he didn't promise. But he did promise. You like vauwlence too much. |
mikeapollo:At the last AGM shareholders asked him about it. He gave good answer. Post AGM, unaudited 2023 indicated positive cashflow and PAT of N75b. Paying N1 dividend will only cost N12b from the profit. It's up to Wale if he wants to start sharing now considering the profile of the turnaround he has achieved and the prospects ahead. |
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