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BabsO2's Posts

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m):
emmanuelewumi:
It came down to N200 few years after it was admitted to NASD.
That means early birds had a much lower entry point than the equivalent 2013 NASD N17.5 listing price of a share currently sold now on NGX, for the price to have fallen as low as N10 equivalent. A question is how many shares were exchanged at N200 (equivalent of N10 per split shares) currently selling on NGX. That's a x70 bagger for those that bought the low and sold immediately on NGX listing. And the x70 excludes dividends already collected shocked.

If rate of ARADEL NASD listing drop repeated on NGX it translates to a low of approx N430 in NGX. Traded price on Friday close was N445.6 Looks like a repeat is likely. Perhaps with a higher depth of drop as NGX is more liquid.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 11:58am On Nov 03, 2024
BabsO2:
ARADEL started trading in 2013 at N350 on NASD. With the x20 share split, that means a share being sold on the NGX right now was bought at a price of N17.5 in 2013.

Current book value per share (BVPS) and EPS of ARADEL based on 2024Q3 are N312 and N25.5 respectively. If it continues at same pace as last 9m, at Full year 2024, EPS should be about N34 while book value may remain flat due to interim dividends pay out or rise further up if further naira devaluation takes place in Q4.

The company is surely minting money for shareholders with the way PAT's and resulting earnings per share has been growing. Perhaps TA may suggest a good entry point for those interested.
Should ARADEL get to N320, I may take a sit on the bus. But will it drop as low as N320? That's in the hand of the major seller that might have gotten it at lower prices than the listing price in 2013.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 11:42am On Nov 03, 2024
ARADEL started trading in 2013 at N350 on NASD. With the x20 share split, that means a share being sold on the NGX right now was bought at a price of N17.5 in 2013.

Current book value per share (BVPS) and EPS of ARADEL based on 2024Q3 are N312 and N25.5 respectively. If it continues at same pace as last 9m, at Full year 2024, EPS should be about N34 while book value may remain flat due to interim dividends pay out or rise further up if further naira devaluation takes place in Q4.

The company is surely minting money for shareholders with the way PAT's and resulting earnings per share has been growing. Perhaps TA may suggest a good entry point for those interested.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:05am On Nov 03, 2024
emmanuelewumi:
I sell stocks when the financial health start to deteriorate. Reason why I sold all my Oando shares in 2014.I have sold down Dangote Sugar but I still have minimal units left

What I have left is 50,000 units that will be sold next week to buy more of Zenith bank and GTB
Please next time you sell shares like Dangotesugar after talking well of it please alert people that may have joined based on the good they heard about the company from you. Now many got trapped in DS thinking you are there, not knowing you had exited at good profit point. Sunripebble alerted he took profit in Aradel. Should it happen, please do alert us before taking some profits in Aradel or at least immediately after taking some profit and not months after. So that people can benefit and not assume you that marketed Aradel management is still fully with load of shares in the bus.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 12:25am On Nov 03, 2024
emmanuelewumi:
The 9 month EPS of Nahco is N4.71. EPS of N3.00 was made between July and September, if the same thing should happen between October and December the full year EPS will be around N7.71k

If this should happen Nahco will get to between N65.00 and N70.00 or above
NAHCO Q3 earnings may be due to summer holidays. There is usually more international travel in that period. So the earnings may not repeat in Q4
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:57pm On Nov 02, 2024
megawealth01:
Are you in the Oando team?
We are many in the bus grin.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:55pm On Nov 02, 2024
emmanuelewumi:
For that Oando account the more you look the less you see.
I no know where to start from sef, my brain no reach to analyze anything because foundation no dey to build on
You have already done a lot of analysis on OANDO. Well done. Hearing the pros & cons and follow up arguments (discuss & not slurs) enriches our take. Take a break from OANDO and analyze other stocks like DANGOTE SUGAR. NSEMPA will be delighted to see your FA in DS that just fell into negative equity. How will DS come out, what are they doing? e.g. taking ownership of sugarcane farms. Or is it a capital injection that will wipe out current shareholder is the only way out for DS?.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:32pm On Nov 02, 2024
emmanuelewumi:
Are you aware of the various loans that were converted to shares which diluted holdings, are you aware of the loan conversion to shares ratio.

That was how their holdings increased
You said top insiders sold (dumped) their shares. Now you are saying they increased their shares by converting loans to shares. Your two statements are conflicting.

Taking pictures of the shareholding at end year 2023 vs 2022
1. The top three shareholders holding 9,100,189,287 (73.21%) maintained their positions. That is not selling or buying more.
2. Shareholders owning between 50,000,001 and 100,000,000 shares increase from from 3 shareholders to 4 shareholders. With average shareholdings in this category reducing from 79.9 million to 73.7 million. But with overalll holdings in this category increasing from 1.93% to 2.38%

There were more reductions of shares at the lower end of shareholding perhaps due to fear. Those that had little had some of their little taken away by those that had more. Nearly a story at the MEGA end where 76 less MEGA shareholders shed some shares to 4 more MEGA shareholders.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m):
emmanuelewumi:
Because Oando is a religion stock with many faithfuls and worshippers.

And Dangote Sugar always released their results at the appropriate time, did not wait till the stock wss suspended before they released their results and they are not been hyping their stories on social media, so that informed insiders will gradually sell their shares to uninformed retail investors
The change in share holders between 2022 and 2023 does not support this your allegation of informed insiders selling their shares.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 9:00pm On Nov 01, 2024
KarlTom:
This is massive grin

10% on Monday?
I think they still have outstanding quarterlies to be released before the suspension can be lifted. At least H1 must be released. Abi what is the rule.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 7:11pm On Nov 01, 2024
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 7:04pm On Nov 01, 2024
mails4funshi:
I was told categorically to move my account cos the value was less 5M. This happened post the 2008 market crash.
CSL told me to move my account too for one silly reason. Later after they moved it, they started writing me again to please comeback and operate. They appeared confused. Just ignored them.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 4:09pm On Nov 01, 2024
emmanuelewumi:
We would have done the necessary paper before the ban is lifted, after it starts trading CSCS and the registrars will do the needful
Stop taunting us and diverting attention from the Aradel you marketed. Now it feels like MH to those that bought sharp sharp
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 12:28pm On Nov 01, 2024
yMcy56:
I think it's very wrong for the volume holder to be selling on the floor like this!
Why didn't they sell on NASDAQ before listing on NGX?
Or find an institutional investor to cross to?
The price was pumped quite alright but he should have sold there and drag the price down before listing on NGX.
Not fair on those who picked here!
See how he's rubbishing the good stock huh
NASD is not as liquid as NGX.
The seller is not too greedy grin he wants to give it away at fair price perhaps. And not greedily at N800 to N1,200 that some quoted as fair price for Aradel.
And or the seller needs to balance risks and exposure shocked
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:34am On Nov 01, 2024
phemmie06:
Download invearn from playstore, it will give you your total portfolio of shares manage by Africa Prudential
Free of subscription?
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 7:11pm On Oct 31, 2024
Some insights on Sugar from
https://punchng.com/fg-seeks-investment-in-africas-7bn-sugar-market/

The Executive Secretary and Chief Executive Officer of NSDC, Kamar Bakrin, said Nigeria’s annual sugar demand sits at approximately two million metric tonnes, valuing the local market at about $2bn, during a recent session with business editors in Lagos.

The NSDC boss stressed that recent currency fluctuations have made local sugar production more competitive while presenting challenges for importers.

The NSDC announced it has declared 2025 as ‘the year of acceleration’ for the sugar sector, committing to raising the necessary funding and supporting the entry of both local and global investors.

“We are taking deliberate action to accelerate local production…

Question now is when will Dangote Sugar have sufficient local raw sugar production and have excess for export to generate forex and excellent profits .
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:29am On Oct 31, 2024
debeey87:
They bought out the shareholders of a sugar plantation in Adamawa state that has existed for a long time. Not sure they're importing 100%
I read that online. The question now is when will Dangote Sugar stop importing the raw sugar we can produce locally and source 100% locally and stop the forex waste/losses. It's timing will indicate when a turnaround will be witnessed. Insiders or those in the know will benefit from MH on the information.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:11am On Oct 31, 2024
Zagee:
Your fine prints are not even helping matters either.😂
This is unbelievably long.

With this battered naira, he'd have to rely on fx from that refinery. He just has to find that pipeline of fx.

Technically, we're importing sugar tongue
Cost will remain high even to final consumers.
Looks like it's Dangote importing raw sugar at the moment, while BUA is producing raw sugar locally in Nigeria.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:05am On Oct 31, 2024
ositadima1:
Backward integration will take years and huge investment in land and produce, for now, importation of raw sugar is unavoidable.
And Dangote Sugar is no more getting subsidized forex yanfu yanfu shocked for raw sugar importation. Now he has to face the reality of limited forex earning state of the nation.

Does BUA produce raw sugar?
BUA Group produces raw sugar in Nigeria1
. They have two sugar plantations located in Lafiagi, Kwara State, and Bassa, Kogi State1
. Additionally, BUA operates two sugar refineries in Apapa, Lagos State, and Port Harcourt, Rivers State1
. These facilities process raw sugar and refine it into high-quality products for various industries1
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 9:10pm On Oct 30, 2024
nosa2:
I initially did that but I undid it.
Doing it improves accuracy of benchmarking with other banks.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m):
In my own spreadsheet I deducted N500b from GT's PAT as it counted unrealized gains of about that amount in its PAT. Ideally it should be placed under comprehensive income.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 12:36pm On Oct 30, 2024
megawealth01:
It is what it is
Nah so he MH us with the DANGSUGAR PO that was rated a buy by so so may analyst. But i saw it as a bloated price back then sad
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 12:30pm On Oct 30, 2024
emmanuelewumi:
They cashed out big time, in fact Alhaji was ready to buy the company back from Tiger for less than what they paid him
See real Monkey Hunting. Skilled monkey hunting shocked
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 11:49am On Oct 30, 2024
emmanuelewumi:
Be careful when insiders become monkey hunters, with the purported growth potential of the business they ought to be buyers

Do you know the number of United Capital staff who got loan from UCap consumer finance to buy the company's stock at N12 and below. I know because I have been getting loan from them for the past 3 years
I think MBC securities coming on board to take 14% stake is a good flag. Plus the one director who increased his stake. Plus the one substantial share holder who increased stake. Some investments like UCAP in the period you referenced are at stage of potential ShortTerm appreciation (due to clear huge mis-match between market price and intrinsic value)

I see Ellah is a long-term play with huge uncertainties.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 11:26am On Oct 30, 2024
ndept:
Thanks for the above. These are the ways through which we scrutinize stocks and not by abusing and rubbishing the views of others.

On Ellah lakes issue, someone promised here sometime ago to visit their farm and report back to us and we are still waiting on that report. But in my own views, the palm oil business is not a business that yields returns in the first 5 years, in fact, an average palm tree reaches its peak of fruition from 8 years and above. Therefore, if Ellah Lakes is really into palm oil production like Presco and okomu oil, it will take Ellah lakes at least 5 years to start reaping the gains of palm oil business. That is also depending on when they actually planted the palm trees.

NB: I previously own about 70 acres palm tree plantation and personally bought the palm fruit from Okomu oil in Benin in 2015, planted it in 2016 and sold the plantation in 2023 due to security concern. Therefore, I know exactly what I am talking about.
On CBO capital stake reduction, perhaps Olumide Akpata sold some of his stake to finance his Governorship aspiration.

I hope Ellah Lakes has good title and doesn't have nearby stakeholders that can constitute security threat to its progress.

Uncertainties like these will keep the stock price lower than intrinsic value which can only be clearer after many years.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:49am On Oct 30, 2024
megawealth01:
Na ELLAHLAKES be the next analysis grin
May take up more positions like the 1 in 4 directors or like 2 of the listed substantial shareholders. It will be good to watch the directors if they are selling more or buying more in the coming weeks, months and years. Profitability being a long term thing, some directors may sell now (or in prior year) and later buy in time ahead if price dips and they see (know) prospects.

A long term play.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:35am On Oct 30, 2024
crownprince2017:
I'm not surprised by a man that act like a double mouth surd who once said jaiz bank was a glorified microfinance bank and change his mouth when the reality is about to be done on him that all his praised bank will be bloated above the numbers he once criticized.
I wondered what your investing values are, suddenly you are ok with the potential bloated figures of your praised bank just because you are in the train.. grin grin

As per ellahlakes old results, when you talk negative talk positives too, you will not die being objective. grin grin

Many people in that train knows the reasons they are their so no panic.... angry grin

We are praying for it to come less than 3 to load up...

The money in the balance sheet is enough to go round if the company liquidated today, so why the panic if you know what you are doing...
Why did 3 out of the 4 directors reduce their number of shares in the last one year.

However, it is good to see one of the substantial shareholders - Blackman & Co. Ltd - increase stakes. It is also good to see MBC securities springing up to take a 14% stake in the business.

Since number of shares in the year increased by 753,786,788 shares it means apart from MBC Securities that took a new 383,738,196 share position, most of the other new positions must have been taken by retail investors.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:22am On Oct 30, 2024
megawealth01:
VAWULENCE is that you? My hand no dey oooooo grin
It’s due to pains of time past. Pray no new pains ahead.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 7:31pm On Oct 25, 2024
grin
ololufemi:
This egbon called Jubril and all these his deft and creative moves dey give people headache o! Na real wah! Why didn't the company release the information before getting a suspension from the NGX?

Their action looks like they tried to dissuade people from accessing the stock and garner interest into whatever they have to release to the public. 🤔

It also looks like the bew baby, Oando Clean Energy Limited will take advantage of those CNG buses the Federal and State Governments want to purchase in 2025. 🤔
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m):
KarlTom:
We could talk about DIV from FY24 but definitely not FY23... wink
That's fine also.
But Wale paying something before 2024 Christmas is doable based on 2023FY audited if PAT and Cashflow doesn't change materially from the unaudited.
Make we see the auditor's opinion wey dey delay things.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 7:02pm On Oct 25, 2024
megawealth01:
You just wan argue ba? So he said he will pay dividends from 2023 financials ba?
You are changing position. You said he didn't promise. But he did promise. You like vauwlence too much.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 6:59pm On Oct 25, 2024
mikeapollo:
You want Oando to pay dividend with negative shareholders fund/equity?
I would advise that you focus on Oando for price gain; dividends may take some time. But if it happens, good.
At the last AGM shareholders asked him about it. He gave good answer.

Post AGM, unaudited 2023 indicated positive cashflow and PAT of N75b. Paying N1 dividend will only cost N12b from the profit. It's up to Wale if he wants to start sharing now considering the profile of the turnaround he has achieved and the prospects ahead.

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