₦airaland Forum

BabsO2:
Though UBA is currently more underpriced than Zenith or GTCO, its CBN mandated capital raise need to be priced closer to Zenith for several reasons.

In 2007 the public offer prices for the banks were
UBA N35.00 (rights was N34)
Zenith N38.90 (rights was N36.90)
FB N33.00 (rights was N31)
ACCESS N14.90
Fidelity N8:00
FCMB N14:00

2023 FY and 2024Q1 Book Values per share
UBA N57.37 & N73.81
Zenith N73.95 & N90.61
FB N47.88 & N52.53
ACCESS N42.34 & N **(looks lower than many quote)
Fidelity N13.67 & N14.6
FCMB N19.4 & N 22.62

Looking at earnings per share UBA, Access, Zenith and GTCO are competing strongly with Zenith in the lead and UBA attempting to drag position with GTCO. But I guess investors will place premiums on consistent dividend payout and growth. Zenith and GTCO are leading here.

I made this earlier post on 23SEP based on 2024 Q1 numbers available back then for the banks.

Interesting seeing the bet come to pass so quickly. UBA capital raise will happen close to that of Zenith as predicted.

Xidget:
It will take him 10months to run out of shares you no dey hear as Unite4real talk am?

They suppose do cross deal with Institutional buyer though

What is the volume the major ARADEL selling investor want to dispose?

designking:
Does it mean if I have 100,000 units of FBNH shares, I will now have 600,000 shares given the ratio of 1 to 6?

1 right for 6 units of current holding. For you its 100,000/6=16.666 or 16,667
If you go on the link below, you would be able to see what's for you and pick it on the portal should you so wish or go to broker or bank.
https://invest.ngxgroup.com/

First Bank 1 for 6 Rights at N25 announcement.

Agbalowomeri:
It is just because you guys are not aware about how those cowboys make their money. Tony has changed now because he has had his fill and want to enter billionnaire list. Reason you see he is pro-shareholders.

These guys make way more money through their chuachua. You think Wale no dey chop for the past 10 years wey Oando no give dividend?

Now that Wale is heavily loaded (money & control), some of us in the bus are betting Wale will change and follow Tony in becoming more pro-shareholders. Which will put on the next gear in riding the billionaire list.
Earlier shareholders that got trampled will be so pained by Tony & Wale rough handling.

Betting Wale will change to next gear. Only him will decide if Oando PLC becomes profitable for common shareholders.

Agbalowomeri:
Abi my eyes dey pain me ni
Why company no get revenue?

Since they are in production, it could be bookkeeping issues that needs some resolution and it will be updated with the Q3. Or wetin you see. Make you talk am now

yMcy56:
@Babs02, abeg share some popcorn 🍿 reach here, I don meet plenty pages for ground and I don dey read am page by page.....😁
On ARADEL, why wasn't someone generous enough to tell us its history on NASD before it was listed?
Na only sweet sweet things we read about it before it was listed on NGX.
Now some got their funds trapped......knowing the history would have made people to make more informed decisions.

Thanks for the pop corn.
Oando has now released Q1 & Q2. It shows their recovery is on course as they have started coming out of negative share capital gradually.

mikeapollo:
Oando's Turnover FY2023: Unaudited (Draft) Accounts vs Final Audited Accounts

When Oando's FY2023 unaudited accounts were released earlier in the year around Jun2024, the turnover was reported as N3.4trillion. However, in the final audited accounts released, the turnover was reduced to N2.98trillion.
Therefore, there is a difference of about N400billion..
If the 400bn had been recognized (or maintained) in FY2023, the profit after tax would have been N460b, all things being equal.

I am suspecting that the difference might have been reclassified as deferred or unearned income.
If this is true, then it means the N400b would be probably recognized/realized as additional income in the FY2024 accounts, thereby boosting the results and performance for 2024.

@Bovali has already given us her take. Look through the long thread from Friday evening.

Over to you all experts and Finance/investment gurus in the house.
Please go call @Bovali et al as we need their analyses now.

Based on the auditors comments, it looks more like the assumptions (or bookkeeping) that supported N3.4T revenue was challenged so was the cost of sales challenged as that reduced from N3.33T to N2.76T
Also note that the Gross Profit between Unaudited and audited increased from N75 to N85b
Thus forget about N400b showing up. '@Bovali has already given us her take. Look through the long thread from Friday evening.

emmanuelewumi:
Capital raising is the better and faster option, see there is no improvement

If they still have cashflow, they just need to accelerate their sugar cane farms. And stop guzzling FX yanfu yanfu to import raw sugar from Brazil. Perhaps they prefer to guzzle forex than farm here in Nigeria The forex guzzling era is gone.

Planted sugar cane typically takes 12 to 16 months to mature from planting to harvesting. The exact time can vary depending on factors like climate, soil conditions, and the specific variety of sugar cane.

Depending on the current volume of raw sugar the Dangote Sugar invested farms produce and how much cultivation is ongoing. DS should be able to recover in less than 16 months I guess.

emmanuelewumi:
The major seller provided dollar denominated loan to the company.

The loan was converted to shares in 2018 at N500.

I thought they were mad because it was selling for less than that on NASD, should be less than N300 then.

We can say their post stock split cost was about N25

The major seller selling at N750 multiplied their money by x30
Selling at N500 they multiplied by x20
That excludes dividends already collected. However these multiples are lower in dollar terms

emmanuelewumi:
It came down to N200 few years after it was admitted to NASD.

That means early birds had a much lower entry point than the equivalent 2013 NASD N17.5 listing price of a share currently sold now on NGX, for the price to have fallen as low as N10 equivalent. A question is how many shares were exchanged at N200 (equivalent of N10 per split shares) currently selling on NGX. That's a x70 bagger for those that bought the low and sold immediately on NGX listing. And the x70 excludes dividends already collected .

If rate of ARADEL NASD listing drop repeated on NGX it translates to a low of approx N430 in NGX. Traded price on Friday close was N445.6 Looks like a repeat is likely. Perhaps with a higher depth of drop as NGX is more liquid.

BabsO2:
ARADEL started trading in 2013 at N350 on NASD. With the x20 share split, that means a share being sold on the NGX right now was bought at a price of N17.5 in 2013.

Current book value per share (BVPS) and EPS of ARADEL based on 2024Q3 are N312 and N25.5 respectively. If it continues at same pace as last 9m, at Full year 2024, EPS should be about N34 while book value may remain flat due to interim dividends pay out or rise further up if further naira devaluation takes place in Q4.

The company is surely minting money for shareholders with the way PAT's and resulting earnings per share has been growing. Perhaps TA may suggest a good entry point for those interested.

Should ARADEL get to N320, I may take a sit on the bus. But will it drop as low as N320? That's in the hand of the major seller that might have gotten it at lower prices than the listing price in 2013.

ARADEL started trading in 2013 at N350 on NASD. With the x20 share split, that means a share being sold on the NGX right now was bought at a price of N17.5 in 2013.

Current book value per share (BVPS) and EPS of ARADEL based on 2024Q3 are N312 and N25.5 respectively. If it continues at same pace as last 9m, at Full year 2024, EPS should be about N34 while book value may remain flat due to interim dividends pay out or rise further up if further naira devaluation takes place in Q4.

The company is surely minting money for shareholders with the way PAT's and resulting earnings per share has been growing. Perhaps TA may suggest a good entry point for those interested.

emmanuelewumi:
I sell stocks when the financial health start to deteriorate. Reason why I sold all my Oando shares in 2014.I have sold down Dangote Sugar but I still have minimal units left

What I have left is 50,000 units that will be sold next week to buy more of Zenith bank and GTB

Please next time you sell shares like Dangotesugar after talking well of it please alert people that may have joined based on the good they heard about the company from you. Now many got trapped in DS thinking you are there, not knowing you had exited at good profit point. Sunripebble alerted he took profit in Aradel. Should it happen, please do alert us before taking some profits in Aradel or at least immediately after taking some profit and not months after. So that people can benefit and not assume you that marketed Aradel management is still fully with load of shares in the bus.

emmanuelewumi:
The 9 month EPS of Nahco is N4.71. EPS of N3.00 was made between July and September, if the same thing should happen between October and December the full year EPS will be around N7.71k

If this should happen Nahco will get to between N65.00 and N70.00 or above

NAHCO Q3 earnings may be due to summer holidays. There is usually more international travel in that period. So the earnings may not repeat in Q4

megawealth01:
Are you in the Oando team?

We are many in the bus .

emmanuelewumi:
For that Oando account the more you look the less you see.
I no know where to start from sef, my brain no reach to analyze anything because foundation no dey to build on

You have already done a lot of analysis on OANDO. Well done. Hearing the pros & cons and follow up arguments (discuss & not slurs) enriches our take. Take a break from OANDO and analyze other stocks like DANGOTE SUGAR. NSEMPA will be delighted to see your FA in DS that just fell into negative equity. How will DS come out, what are they doing? e.g. taking ownership of sugarcane farms. Or is it a capital injection that will wipe out current shareholder is the only way out for DS?.

emmanuelewumi:
Are you aware of the various loans that were converted to shares which diluted holdings, are you aware of the loan conversion to shares ratio.

That was how their holdings increased

You said top insiders sold (dumped) their shares. Now you are saying they increased their shares by converting loans to shares. Your two statements are conflicting.

Taking pictures of the shareholding at end year 2023 vs 2022
1. The top three shareholders holding 9,100,189,287 (73.21%) maintained their positions. That is not selling or buying more.
2. Shareholders owning between 50,000,001 and 100,000,000 shares increase from from 3 shareholders to 4 shareholders. With average shareholdings in this category reducing from 79.9 million to 73.7 million. But with overalll holdings in this category increasing from 1.93% to 2.38%

There were more reductions of shares at the lower end of shareholding perhaps due to fear. Those that had little had some of their little taken away by those that had more. Nearly a story at the MEGA end where 76 less MEGA shareholders shed some shares to 4 more MEGA shareholders.

emmanuelewumi:
Because Oando is a religion stock with many faithfuls and worshippers.

And Dangote Sugar always released their results at the appropriate time, did not wait till the stock wss suspended before they released their results and they are not been hyping their stories on social media, so that informed insiders will gradually sell their shares to uninformed retail investors

The change in share holders between 2022 and 2023 does not support this your allegation of informed insiders selling their shares.

KarlTom:
This is massive

10% on Monday?

I think they still have outstanding quarterlies to be released before the suspension can be lifted. At least H1 must be released. Abi what is the rule.

yMcy56:
Egungun don land o

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42575_OANDO_PLC-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_NOVEMBER_2024.pdf

Make we wait for 2024 Q1, Q2 and Q3

mails4funshi:
I was told categorically to move my account cos the value was less 5M. This happened post the 2008 market crash.

CSL told me to move my account too for one silly reason. Later after they moved it, they started writing me again to please comeback and operate. They appeared confused. Just ignored them.

emmanuelewumi:
We would have done the necessary paper before the ban is lifted, after it starts trading CSCS and the registrars will do the needful

Stop taunting us and diverting attention from the Aradel you marketed. Now it feels like MH to those that bought sharp sharp

yMcy56:
I think it's very wrong for the volume holder to be selling on the floor like this!
Why didn't they sell on NASDAQ before listing on NGX?
Or find an institutional investor to cross to?
The price was pumped quite alright but he should have sold there and drag the price down before listing on NGX.
Not fair on those who picked here!
See how he's rubbishing the good stock

NASD is not as liquid as NGX.
The seller is not too greedy he wants to give it away at fair price perhaps. And not greedily at N800 to N1,200 that some quoted as fair price for Aradel.
And or the seller needs to balance risks and exposure

phemmie06:
Download invearn from playstore, it will give you your total portfolio of shares manage by Africa Prudential

Free of subscription?

Some insights on Sugar from
https://punchng.com/fg-seeks-investment-in-africas-7bn-sugar-market/

The Executive Secretary and Chief Executive Officer of NSDC, Kamar Bakrin, said Nigeria’s annual sugar demand sits at approximately two million metric tonnes, valuing the local market at about $2bn, during a recent session with business editors in Lagos.

The NSDC boss stressed that recent currency fluctuations have made local sugar production more competitive while presenting challenges for importers.

The NSDC announced it has declared 2025 as ‘the year of acceleration’ for the sugar sector, committing to raising the necessary funding and supporting the entry of both local and global investors.

“We are taking deliberate action to accelerate local production…

Question now is when will Dangote Sugar have sufficient local raw sugar production and have excess for export to generate forex and excellent profits .

debeey87:
They bought out the shareholders of a sugar plantation in Adamawa state that has existed for a long time. Not sure they're importing 100%

I read that online. The question now is when will Dangote Sugar stop importing the raw sugar we can produce locally and source 100% locally and stop the forex waste/losses. It's timing will indicate when a turnaround will be witnessed. Insiders or those in the know will benefit from MH on the information.

Zagee:
Your fine prints are not even helping matters either.😂
This is unbelievably long.

With this battered naira, he'd have to rely on fx from that refinery. He just has to find that pipeline of fx.

Technically, we're importing sugar
Cost will remain high even to final consumers.

Looks like it's Dangote importing raw sugar at the moment, while BUA is producing raw sugar locally in Nigeria.

ositadima1:
Backward integration will take years and huge investment in land and produce, for now, importation of raw sugar is unavoidable.

And Dangote Sugar is no more getting subsidized forex yanfu yanfu for raw sugar importation. Now he has to face the reality of limited forex earning state of the nation.

Does BUA produce raw sugar?
BUA Group produces raw sugar in Nigeria1
. They have two sugar plantations located in Lafiagi, Kwara State, and Bassa, Kogi State1
. Additionally, BUA operates two sugar refineries in Apapa, Lagos State, and Port Harcourt, Rivers State1
. These facilities process raw sugar and refine it into high-quality products for various industries1

nosa2:
I initially did that but I undid it.

Doing it improves accuracy of benchmarking with other banks.

In my own spreadsheet I deducted N500b from GT's PAT as it counted unrealized gains of about that amount in its PAT. Ideally it should be placed under comprehensive income.

megawealth01:
It is what it is

Nah so he MH us with the DANGSUGAR PO that was rated a buy by so so may analyst. But i saw it as a bloated price back then