₦airaland Forum

Raider76:
This makes sense. However, not sure it's worth the hassle. Assuming you sell at 27 and buy at 25 for just about 5% margin, and you wait forever to be allocated.

The margin pass 5% but e no reach 10%. It’s long term things. Better than nothing

Raider76:
Someone doesn't want FBNH to cross above N27 yet.

Looks like more are coming out to sell in order to take up their rights. Sold some last week at N27.6 Thought by now it will be N28, only to see 26 right now. Abeg make the major buyer resume buying operations.

Mpeace:
q3 results expected

It better come out well to help the price stay comfortably in three digits before year end and throughout the coming year

Bagwa:
Very soon , I will quote this 6th Dec 😁

What’s happening by then ?

ProphetUtuocha:
Those who've ignored the beautiful one
Will soon feverishly run after her

Mark this!

When it crosses 3 digits, some will start asking is it okay to buy at N1xy

Abeg not a buy or sell mandate o

megawealth01:
E be like we go start another round of Oando discuss today as Proph don show? Let's be a little civil this time around because Oando discuss always leads to VAWULENCE

Some will make 0 figures or loss sef. And some will make 10 digit profits. And some in between. Na so. No wahala

yMcy56:
GTCO Vs. STANBIC
Now trading at same price range.....
We see what the next move looks like......

OANDO, do this accumulations/consolidations fast and let's enter fast lane abeg.....

Waiting for the bus to enter fast lane

GeeKudi:
Please, does anyone know what is going on with African Prudentials, the registrar for TRANSCORP? All the units of TRANSCORP I had before the reconstruction is missing. I keep sending messages without any satisfactory response

You most likely have more than one broker. Have you checked your various stockbroker CSCS statements?

KarlTom:
DIV payment won't prove the bolded as much as a massive reduction in outstanding loans and borrowings...

My bet is on 2025 for DIV

True. Massive reduction in outstanding loans especially the relatively more expensive ones is better than dividend payments . As it will make them grow eps faster and come out of negative equity faster.

Mpeace:
They can just chip im small dividend like geregu. N8 or somthimg like that

50 kobo or N1 doable out of 2024 EPS that stood at N5.04 in H1, to demonstrate their recovery is on course and to appease shareholders that asked the question last year at the AGM

2024 EPS should be greater than N10

robobo:
This is the good side to it if it can be pulled off.

Whether retail pick it up or the deep pockets i think it shouldn't matter.

They are all being pulled off. Fat cats will just get unduly fatter in the process as they are buying and diluting heavy volumes of the shares at great discounts.

peperempe:
Uncle T and his gang know what they are doing. Don't forget that he said he will use all his interim dividend to buy the RI. In my opinion, he and his gang would wish small shareholders don't claim their rights so that he and his gang can accumulate more.

The capital raise is a forced one by CBN. I hail uncle T. He has safeguarded shareholders from undue dilution from a low priced offer as best as he can.

yMcy56:
I think the N35 price for RI is a little bit high....
I was expecting something like btw 25 and 28, this way he would have easily achieve the target....
Defending is an uphill task.

All the fund they're now using to defend the share price could have gone into the recapitalization itself.
They sure know what's there for the bank anyway....

Current book value per share for UBA has already crossed N100 per share. The N35 rights price is about a third of book value per share - a give away price as a result of the way shareholders selling shares anyhow not knowing its value. Deep pockets will just grab whatever rights are not taken. More bullion vans are needed by MM to push the market price above N35.


Disclosure: I am bullish on UBA. Loaded more in the last six months at N23

nosa2:
Please what is CIPS?

Comprehensive Income Per Share
Note: for shareholders o.

jonnysessy:
That stingy back will in no distant time outshine UBA that is manipulating their share price for right issues. Let's see how they will sustain it.

Please compare the two book values per share for common NGX shareholder and you will see UBA is a far ahead. Already ahead of GTCO but behind Zenith. UBA is also ahead in EPS and CIPS.

BabsO2:
Though UBA is currently more underpriced than Zenith or GTCO, its CBN mandated capital raise need to be priced closer to Zenith for several reasons.

In 2007 the public offer prices for the banks were
UBA N35.00 (rights was N34)
Zenith N38.90 (rights was N36.90)
FB N33.00 (rights was N31)
ACCESS N14.90
Fidelity N8:00
FCMB N14:00

2023 FY and 2024Q1 Book Values per share
UBA N57.37 & N73.81
Zenith N73.95 & N90.61
FB N47.88 & N52.53
ACCESS N42.34 & N **(looks lower than many quote)
Fidelity N13.67 & N14.6
FCMB N19.4 & N 22.62

Looking at earnings per share UBA, Access, Zenith and GTCO are competing strongly with Zenith in the lead and UBA attempting to drag position with GTCO. But I guess investors will place premiums on consistent dividend payout and growth. Zenith and GTCO are leading here.

I made this earlier post on 23SEP based on 2024 Q1 numbers available back then for the banks.

Interesting seeing the bet come to pass so quickly. UBA capital raise will happen close to that of Zenith as predicted.

Xidget:
It will take him 10months to run out of shares you no dey hear as Unite4real talk am?

They suppose do cross deal with Institutional buyer though

What is the volume the major ARADEL selling investor want to dispose?

designking:
Does it mean if I have 100,000 units of FBNH shares, I will now have 600,000 shares given the ratio of 1 to 6?

1 right for 6 units of current holding. For you its 100,000/6=16.666 or 16,667
If you go on the link below, you would be able to see what's for you and pick it on the portal should you so wish or go to broker or bank.
https://invest.ngxgroup.com/

First Bank 1 for 6 Rights at N25 announcement.

Agbalowomeri:
It is just because you guys are not aware about how those cowboys make their money. Tony has changed now because he has had his fill and want to enter billionnaire list. Reason you see he is pro-shareholders.

These guys make way more money through their chuachua. You think Wale no dey chop for the past 10 years wey Oando no give dividend?

Now that Wale is heavily loaded (money & control), some of us in the bus are betting Wale will change and follow Tony in becoming more pro-shareholders. Which will put on the next gear in riding the billionaire list.
Earlier shareholders that got trampled will be so pained by Tony & Wale rough handling.

Betting Wale will change to next gear. Only him will decide if Oando PLC becomes profitable for common shareholders.

Agbalowomeri:
Abi my eyes dey pain me ni
Why company no get revenue?

Since they are in production, it could be bookkeeping issues that needs some resolution and it will be updated with the Q3. Or wetin you see. Make you talk am now

yMcy56:
@Babs02, abeg share some popcorn 🍿 reach here, I don meet plenty pages for ground and I don dey read am page by page.....😁
On ARADEL, why wasn't someone generous enough to tell us its history on NASD before it was listed?
Na only sweet sweet things we read about it before it was listed on NGX.
Now some got their funds trapped......knowing the history would have made people to make more informed decisions.

Thanks for the pop corn.
Oando has now released Q1 & Q2. It shows their recovery is on course as they have started coming out of negative share capital gradually.

mikeapollo:
Oando's Turnover FY2023: Unaudited (Draft) Accounts vs Final Audited Accounts

When Oando's FY2023 unaudited accounts were released earlier in the year around Jun2024, the turnover was reported as N3.4trillion. However, in the final audited accounts released, the turnover was reduced to N2.98trillion.
Therefore, there is a difference of about N400billion..
If the 400bn had been recognized (or maintained) in FY2023, the profit after tax would have been N460b, all things being equal.

I am suspecting that the difference might have been reclassified as deferred or unearned income.
If this is true, then it means the N400b would be probably recognized/realized as additional income in the FY2024 accounts, thereby boosting the results and performance for 2024.

@Bovali has already given us her take. Look through the long thread from Friday evening.

Over to you all experts and Finance/investment gurus in the house.
Please go call @Bovali et al as we need their analyses now.

Based on the auditors comments, it looks more like the assumptions (or bookkeeping) that supported N3.4T revenue was challenged so was the cost of sales challenged as that reduced from N3.33T to N2.76T
Also note that the Gross Profit between Unaudited and audited increased from N75 to N85b
Thus forget about N400b showing up. '@Bovali has already given us her take. Look through the long thread from Friday evening.

emmanuelewumi:
Capital raising is the better and faster option, see there is no improvement

If they still have cashflow, they just need to accelerate their sugar cane farms. And stop guzzling FX yanfu yanfu to import raw sugar from Brazil. Perhaps they prefer to guzzle forex than farm here in Nigeria The forex guzzling era is gone.

Planted sugar cane typically takes 12 to 16 months to mature from planting to harvesting. The exact time can vary depending on factors like climate, soil conditions, and the specific variety of sugar cane.

Depending on the current volume of raw sugar the Dangote Sugar invested farms produce and how much cultivation is ongoing. DS should be able to recover in less than 16 months I guess.

emmanuelewumi:
The major seller provided dollar denominated loan to the company.

The loan was converted to shares in 2018 at N500.

I thought they were mad because it was selling for less than that on NASD, should be less than N300 then.

We can say their post stock split cost was about N25

The major seller selling at N750 multiplied their money by x30
Selling at N500 they multiplied by x20
That excludes dividends already collected. However these multiples are lower in dollar terms

emmanuelewumi:
It came down to N200 few years after it was admitted to NASD.

That means early birds had a much lower entry point than the equivalent 2013 NASD N17.5 listing price of a share currently sold now on NGX, for the price to have fallen as low as N10 equivalent. A question is how many shares were exchanged at N200 (equivalent of N10 per split shares) currently selling on NGX. That's a x70 bagger for those that bought the low and sold immediately on NGX listing. And the x70 excludes dividends already collected .

If rate of ARADEL NASD listing drop repeated on NGX it translates to a low of approx N430 in NGX. Traded price on Friday close was N445.6 Looks like a repeat is likely. Perhaps with a higher depth of drop as NGX is more liquid.

BabsO2:
ARADEL started trading in 2013 at N350 on NASD. With the x20 share split, that means a share being sold on the NGX right now was bought at a price of N17.5 in 2013.

Current book value per share (BVPS) and EPS of ARADEL based on 2024Q3 are N312 and N25.5 respectively. If it continues at same pace as last 9m, at Full year 2024, EPS should be about N34 while book value may remain flat due to interim dividends pay out or rise further up if further naira devaluation takes place in Q4.

The company is surely minting money for shareholders with the way PAT's and resulting earnings per share has been growing. Perhaps TA may suggest a good entry point for those interested.

Should ARADEL get to N320, I may take a sit on the bus. But will it drop as low as N320? That's in the hand of the major seller that might have gotten it at lower prices than the listing price in 2013.

ARADEL started trading in 2013 at N350 on NASD. With the x20 share split, that means a share being sold on the NGX right now was bought at a price of N17.5 in 2013.

Current book value per share (BVPS) and EPS of ARADEL based on 2024Q3 are N312 and N25.5 respectively. If it continues at same pace as last 9m, at Full year 2024, EPS should be about N34 while book value may remain flat due to interim dividends pay out or rise further up if further naira devaluation takes place in Q4.

The company is surely minting money for shareholders with the way PAT's and resulting earnings per share has been growing. Perhaps TA may suggest a good entry point for those interested.

emmanuelewumi:
I sell stocks when the financial health start to deteriorate. Reason why I sold all my Oando shares in 2014.I have sold down Dangote Sugar but I still have minimal units left

What I have left is 50,000 units that will be sold next week to buy more of Zenith bank and GTB

Please next time you sell shares like Dangotesugar after talking well of it please alert people that may have joined based on the good they heard about the company from you. Now many got trapped in DS thinking you are there, not knowing you had exited at good profit point. Sunripebble alerted he took profit in Aradel. Should it happen, please do alert us before taking some profits in Aradel or at least immediately after taking some profit and not months after. So that people can benefit and not assume you that marketed Aradel management is still fully with load of shares in the bus.

emmanuelewumi:
The 9 month EPS of Nahco is N4.71. EPS of N3.00 was made between July and September, if the same thing should happen between October and December the full year EPS will be around N7.71k

If this should happen Nahco will get to between N65.00 and N70.00 or above

NAHCO Q3 earnings may be due to summer holidays. There is usually more international travel in that period. So the earnings may not repeat in Q4

megawealth01:
Are you in the Oando team?

We are many in the bus .

emmanuelewumi:
For that Oando account the more you look the less you see.
I no know where to start from sef, my brain no reach to analyze anything because foundation no dey to build on

You have already done a lot of analysis on OANDO. Well done. Hearing the pros & cons and follow up arguments (discuss & not slurs) enriches our take. Take a break from OANDO and analyze other stocks like DANGOTE SUGAR. NSEMPA will be delighted to see your FA in DS that just fell into negative equity. How will DS come out, what are they doing? e.g. taking ownership of sugarcane farms. Or is it a capital injection that will wipe out current shareholder is the only way out for DS?.