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BabsO2's Posts

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InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 12:30pm On Oct 30, 2024
emmanuelewumi:
They cashed out big time, in fact Alhaji was ready to buy the company back from Tiger for less than what they paid him
See real Monkey Hunting. Skilled monkey hunting shocked
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 11:49am On Oct 30, 2024
emmanuelewumi:
Be careful when insiders become monkey hunters, with the purported growth potential of the business they ought to be buyers

Do you know the number of United Capital staff who got loan from UCap consumer finance to buy the company's stock at N12 and below. I know because I have been getting loan from them for the past 3 years
I think MBC securities coming on board to take 14% stake is a good flag. Plus the one director who increased his stake. Plus the one substantial share holder who increased stake. Some investments like UCAP in the period you referenced are at stage of potential ShortTerm appreciation (due to clear huge mis-match between market price and intrinsic value)

I see Ellah is a long-term play with huge uncertainties.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 11:26am On Oct 30, 2024
ndept:
Thanks for the above. These are the ways through which we scrutinize stocks and not by abusing and rubbishing the views of others.

On Ellah lakes issue, someone promised here sometime ago to visit their farm and report back to us and we are still waiting on that report. But in my own views, the palm oil business is not a business that yields returns in the first 5 years, in fact, an average palm tree reaches its peak of fruition from 8 years and above. Therefore, if Ellah Lakes is really into palm oil production like Presco and okomu oil, it will take Ellah lakes at least 5 years to start reaping the gains of palm oil business. That is also depending on when they actually planted the palm trees.

NB: I previously own about 70 acres palm tree plantation and personally bought the palm fruit from Okomu oil in Benin in 2015, planted it in 2016 and sold the plantation in 2023 due to security concern. Therefore, I know exactly what I am talking about.
On CBO capital stake reduction, perhaps Olumide Akpata sold some of his stake to finance his Governorship aspiration.

I hope Ellah Lakes has good title and doesn't have nearby stakeholders that can constitute security threat to its progress.

Uncertainties like these will keep the stock price lower than intrinsic value which can only be clearer after many years.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:49am On Oct 30, 2024
megawealth01:
Na ELLAHLAKES be the next analysis grin
May take up more positions like the 1 in 4 directors or like 2 of the listed substantial shareholders. It will be good to watch the directors if they are selling more or buying more in the coming weeks, months and years. Profitability being a long term thing, some directors may sell now (or in prior year) and later buy in time ahead if price dips and they see (know) prospects.

A long term play.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:35am On Oct 30, 2024
crownprince2017:
I'm not surprised by a man that act like a double mouth surd who once said jaiz bank was a glorified microfinance bank and change his mouth when the reality is about to be done on him that all his praised bank will be bloated above the numbers he once criticized.
I wondered what your investing values are, suddenly you are ok with the potential bloated figures of your praised bank just because you are in the train.. grin grin

As per ellahlakes old results, when you talk negative talk positives too, you will not die being objective. grin grin

Many people in that train knows the reasons they are their so no panic.... angry grin

We are praying for it to come less than 3 to load up...

The money in the balance sheet is enough to go round if the company liquidated today, so why the panic if you know what you are doing...
Why did 3 out of the 4 directors reduce their number of shares in the last one year.

However, it is good to see one of the substantial shareholders - Blackman & Co. Ltd - increase stakes. It is also good to see MBC securities springing up to take a 14% stake in the business.

Since number of shares in the year increased by 753,786,788 shares it means apart from MBC Securities that took a new 383,738,196 share position, most of the other new positions must have been taken by retail investors.

InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:22am On Oct 30, 2024
megawealth01:
VAWULENCE is that you? My hand no dey oooooo grin
It’s due to pains of time past. Pray no new pains ahead.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 7:31pm On Oct 25, 2024
grin
ololufemi:
This egbon called Jubril and all these his deft and creative moves dey give people headache o! Na real wah! Why didn't the company release the information before getting a suspension from the NGX?

Their action looks like they tried to dissuade people from accessing the stock and garner interest into whatever they have to release to the public. 🤔

It also looks like the bew baby, Oando Clean Energy Limited will take advantage of those CNG buses the Federal and State Governments want to purchase in 2025. 🤔
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m):
KarlTom:
We could talk about DIV from FY24 but definitely not FY23... wink
That's fine also.
But Wale paying something before 2024 Christmas is doable based on 2023FY audited if PAT and Cashflow doesn't change materially from the unaudited.
Make we see the auditor's opinion wey dey delay things.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 7:02pm On Oct 25, 2024
megawealth01:
You just wan argue ba? So he said he will pay dividends from 2023 financials ba?
You are changing position. You said he didn't promise. But he did promise. You like vauwlence too much.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 6:59pm On Oct 25, 2024
mikeapollo:
You want Oando to pay dividend with negative shareholders fund/equity?
I would advise that you focus on Oando for price gain; dividends may take some time. But if it happens, good.
At the last AGM shareholders asked him about it. He gave good answer.

Post AGM, unaudited 2023 indicated positive cashflow and PAT of N75b. Paying N1 dividend will only cost N12b from the profit. It's up to Wale if he wants to start sharing now considering the profile of the turnaround he has achieved and the prospects ahead.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 6:52pm On Oct 25, 2024
megawealth01:
He didn't promise dividend but promised a turnaround SOON without mentioning WHEN
Listen to the AGM again. Turnaround is not a promise but a completed milestone !!!!!.
He promised dividend. I already shared this before. Listen to the AGM again look at the transcript time below of his dividend promise.

Make we no miss inform people on what he said or didn't say abeg. grin

InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 6:14pm On Oct 25, 2024
BabsO2:
This is a very very very good sign grin
It's the review of the materiality of the new acquisition that causing the auditors to need more time.

So the CFO is okay. It's the complexity of additional acquisition that needs to be factored in that caused the delays plus the auditors needing extra time to assess the materiality of this additional information before concluding the audit opinion. Great grin

Hopefully the Oando rally will resume first week of November.
Make Wale remember the question shareholders asked him about resumption of dividend payment and the answer he gave.

N1 dividend from the 2023 PAT and cashflow will be a good start and serve as a proof in the hands of shareholders that he as indeed turned the company around grin.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 6:02pm On Oct 25, 2024
Mpeace:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42408_OANDO_PLC-OANDO__PRESS_RELEASE__CORPORATE_ACTIONS_OCTOBER_2024.pdf
This is a very very very good sign grin
It's the review of the materiality of the new acquisition that causing the auditors to need more time.

So the CFO is okay. It's the complexity of additional acquisition that needs to be factored in that caused the delays plus the auditors needing extra time to assess the materiality of this additional information before concluding the audit opinion. Great grin

Hopefully the Oando rally will resume first week of November.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 3:52pm On Oct 25, 2024
yMcy56:
UBA
Closed @30.10!
Nice job by the MM cheesy
..
My bet is UBA will not fall below N30 in the short to medium term.
I still maintain my prediction (bet) that its capital raising price cannot be below N30 but will tend towards that of Zenith or even close to GTCO sef.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 1:37pm On Oct 25, 2024
megawealth01:
Let there be no vawulence na

Which one be corporate wizkids? Just call them by their names grin
You too like vawulence.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 1:20pm On Oct 25, 2024
phadriz:
I know, just for those who will gain from it ni.
Intercompanies is the middleman for major shareholders to cheat other stakeholders
Abeg continue sharing better insights joor. It enriches forum members. Insights should not be through fear mongering and incomplete info some dish out. But by the way you are going about it. Appreciate your posts grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 1:15pm On Oct 25, 2024
emmanuelewumi:
You no suppose to dey give unsolicited counsel. Experience is the best teacher
Why this gang up to gag someone dishing out better knowledge. Abeg stop it shocked
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 1:06pm On Oct 25, 2024
megawealth01:
You GERRIT. He should just step one side
grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 1:05pm On Oct 25, 2024
emmanuelewumi:
The purchase of Unipetrol was an anomaly. He is one of the billionaires created by Obasanjo. Used to work with late Chief FRA William law chamber and was on the desk that handle oil and gas contracts and law.

The company which he promoted was less than 10% of Unipetrol, reason why the purchase was highly leveraged and they went on asset stripping when they took over the company.

The company was the least among those that bidded for FGN shares in the company
This money they shared. Some try do business with it. Others just hid their own offshore and didn't grow the economy. Overall the economy looks worse off angry sad shocked
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 12:53pm On Oct 25, 2024
phadriz:
Dey play!

CFO report in manner that the CEO & the board want it to be.

Any company that has so many intercompany transactions is a fraudulent company.
ENRON is a good example of a company that used so many intercompany transactions to hide it was in a deep hole.

There is a possibility of incompetent CFO. Also the CEO gra gra and bad boy ways could stud a CFO in his/her tracks. Perhaps that's why he wanted to even go private. I pray that doesn't raise its ugly head again shocked.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 12:43pm On Oct 25, 2024
ghm:
If this is true, for the company to get to the next level, then it is time for him to become the Chairman and hire a CEO that will take the company further and make Energy money for him and the other shareholders.
Wale's business has grown very big. He indeed needs all these people you are mentioning. While he sits back as Chairman. SEPLAT and Dangote have few expatriates at top positions to help pull the businesses towards good success.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 12:34pm On Oct 25, 2024
Sunrisepebble:
Those not in Presco already, I think this alongside naira depreciation are good signals for stellar Q3 and FY results.

https://www.malaymail.com/amp/news/money/2024/10/25/malaysias-palm-oil-surge-whats-driving-prices-to-biggest-highs-since-2022/154752

DYOR
I am picking more Ellah. I wish them good success as the Agric space is over under-exploited.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:10am On Oct 25, 2024
Agbalowomeri:
But foreign reserve is foreign reserve. Obligations no join for the matter. Even the US is in a large negative. Let them keep building the foreign reserve. At least, it is a positive in one direction
Wrong to compare with US that can print the $ as it pleases. If FG loans were all in Naira no wahala. If push comes to shove it will just print to pay bond owners. Not the same case with Naija and FX loans/reserves. Severe dislocations can be created if FX income just dries up. Like Crude oil price just dropping to $10
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 9:58am On Oct 25, 2024
megawealth01:
Make I give you my usual emoji grin

Founder nko foundee ni

But on a more serious note he can still be Wale without being actively involved in Oando stuff. Come to the West many founders of companies allow them to run without unnecessary influences...

Wale is a badt boi grin
At the last AGM in November shareholders like us asked questions and gave suggestions aimed at moving the business forward. That's all we can do. We can ask questions like, why are reports late or why should the CFO not be fired for late presentation of audited accounts etc grin.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 9:47am On Oct 25, 2024
emmanuelewumi:
Go back to history.

Unipetrol is older than Wale
Unipetrol purchase is just one of the achievement milestones of his entrepreneurial journey.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 9:44am On Oct 25, 2024
phadriz:
Don't mind CBN Governor with his misleading information, he was asked Net-foreign reserve, he couldn't give the information. They said they will work on it and disclose it Q1 2025. I know the net will be negative figure. How can you be declaring assets and ignore the obligations?
Like a man shouting I have 40 million naira in my bank account when at the same time he has a debt of 100 million naira.

I think foreign reserves as a standalone number doesn't paint the picture of economic health. Some other numbers like annual FG FX Income and current FG FX debt need to be quoted along with it each time its quoted. And a trend of the three is needed.

InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 9:32am On Oct 25, 2024
megawealth01:
Wale should just step down
He founded the company. He decides how things should go. Investors are free to sell their shares or start their own company grin.
Nigeria is still extremely under-developed and needs many more entrepreneurs to set up big businesses like Wale shocked.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 9:22am On Oct 25, 2024
ghm:
Truth be told, OANDO needs to sit up, a listed company with over N 1T market capitalization should not be having these type air about defaulting in scheduled reporting around them. We are talking about a multinational, highly capitalised company in one of the most established sectors in the world.

The management should start by firing the CFO and replace him with a professional who is ready for world/best-in-class standards.
Great comment. If the CFO cannot maintain bookkeeping practices that can be audited quickly without back-and-forth delays, he or she should be replaced with a more competent person.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 12:02pm On Oct 24, 2024
mikeapollo:
It is a fact that there has never been a single oil and gas upstream company in Nigeria's history which commands the quantum of oil and gas reserves that Oando has acquired, that has been declared bankrupt or liquidated because it was no longer a going concern!
Oando is having cashflow problems, but they have assets that are worth more than their total liabilities! How quick they are able to generate the necessary liquidity to settle their liabilities is the challenge here!
That's in prior years?
The unaudited 2023 showed positive free cashflow after paying interest due on loans.
I suspect they may have poor bookkeeping practices. And or their new auditors are slow (thinking about your prior comments on how some audit frims are slow)
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 11:05am On Oct 24, 2024
emmanuelewumi:
Referring to Dangote Sugar that made a loss but released their result, compared to Oando that might have made a loss and didn't not release the result.

10 months after 2023 result is not out, 6 month 2024 is not out.
Monkey Hunting get different levels
If not because regulators stopped the merger, DS investors would have been further ripped off by over allocation of Dangote Food shares to Dangote Rice shocked
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:39am On Oct 24, 2024
emmanuelewumi:
Because they are not Monkey Hunting.

It appears some people are paid Monkey Hunters, so that people with privilege information can easily sell at a premium.

Reason why old favourable news are being recycled
The PO for Dangote Sugar was Monkey Hunting. But so many brokers praised it in the same way some praised Aradel and gave it a N1,200 valuation (NB: DS is a bigger MH than Aradel shocked) . Alhaji ripped off those that bought the Sugar IPO so don't mention because they are not Monkey Hunting. Aradel would have done the same on a lower scale than Alhaji, if not because of it's prior listing on NASD with many already in the know of the relatively bloated price.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BabsO2(m): 10:31am On Oct 24, 2024
yMcy56:
GTCO @53!

The banks seems to be looking up...


Make Una rest from OANDO discussion small.....😁
Once results are released, the suspension will be lifted....
If results are good, it will come back stronger, so I Blvd.
Those that rushed to buy yesterday may know something, we don't know the reason for their actions.
It will be interesting to see how the bet goes.

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