₦airaland Forum

dapix:
What is going on with Fidelity bank? Is it preparation for their right issue, that is pushing the price up?

Yes now. Some bulls are released for such things

I predict FCMB playing catch up if it doesn't want to be left far behind once the Q3 audit comes out.

Tpharell:
A lot happening with Oando this morning. Almost 10 million units in 15 minutes…

It's available for those that want to buy at N10.25 right now in small quantities. If one needs more one needs to bring out more money. Some are still waiting, bidding at N8.70

Currently a betting stock as financials are incomplete and minority shareholder buyout still lurking around .

People are careful not to sell. And those buying are doing so cautiously.

unite4real:
Share purchases is a moving bus. Not everyone jumped in at the listed price. Some jumped in along the way. Everyone has their own entry price and break even.

The narration I gave was actually real event on the the sugar investor.

A Stock might be on N30 15 years ago and today it's N10 doesn't mean all investors have suffered losses. It's only the investor who held everything from peak to low that should lament.

I bought GTB years ago at N35. Today it's around N35. But I have also bought at lows and currently average down and I am on almost 70% profit apart from the dividends.

I believe it's also about strategy and not to rule out luck

To make money in the stock market one has to average down or do stock picks when or if prices drop on good stocks. There are also many moving parts that can make a good stock bad and a previously bad stock become good. That requires ones time to monitor the market and take action as needed. I bought Dunlop offer when the factory was expanding. I even averaged down when prices fell. But alas bad government policies (an unfavorable moving part) of anyhow imports with cheap oil forex destroyed Dunlop. Bought PRESCO sat back. Monitored nadding and it has returned excellently. Summary one cannot really sit back in this market or take a rigid position. But to take opportunities as they come. If one has little time, one will be better off with a portfolio tilted more towards bonds.

emmanuelewumi:
Looking at inflation and currency devaluation in the last 15 years most investors have underperformed.

It is even worse with penny and dead stocks that have lost 80% of their stock price in the last 15 years and have not been able to pay dividends for 5 years and above

It is sad to see how so many stocks listed on the NSE have destroyed investors money. It is about a quarter that have tried to correct the loses to bring the overall performance up.

It will be nice to see what analysts state as the annualized return of the NSE over 5, 10, 15, 20 etc years. Plus returns of various sectors.

S&P I think is quoted to have returned 15% annualized. Will need to search for what time frame of decades and years.

emmanuelewumi:
From CSCS price history record, Dangote Sugar was listed on 8th May 2007 at N18.00, the price closed at N18.90k.


Check the stock performance from when it was listed 16 years ago till date.

You got my reference. It was the listing price. I.e. N18. That's 16 years ago to be more precise.

Hedgefunds:
IF YOU HAD TO BUY AND HOLD JUST 1 STOCK FOR THE NEXT 5 YEARS, WHAT WOULD IT BE?

Bonds are the closest to what one can buy and go to sleep while getting a very good yield over a long term. With current yields above 14%, a lot of stocks will not perform more than a bond with a coupon yield of +14% in the long term. For example, Dangote Sugar has not performed better than a 14% bond over the last 15 years.

Thus with this objective of HOLD, plus an assumption of not really monitoring over the next 5 years (perhaps busy with work). A +14% bond yield investment may be the better option than a stock at this point in time.

Ojoboak:
Management response to the bolded will determine the market direction any moment from now. Though it is cautiously trading.

Management response to the two key hot questions.
Dividends will be restored sometime in future. That there will be no problems to pay dividends. (Sounded optimistic )
Some agitating shareholders already exited. However the scheme process will go the whole hog. Only the remaining minority shareholders at the court ordered upcoming scheme meeting will determine the way forward based on 75% majority vote.

My take - body language and comment from Wale suggest those minority shareholders that want to exit have exited. But the comment from a key board member suggest caution, as it's minority shareholders that will determine way forward. That process must be concluded. Umm - Looks open ended - a buy out could still happen. However market has responded with full BID again following these answers. With zero offers. ZERO offers.

Tpharell:
Praise singing and arse licking galore. Where are the people who bought Oando at N50 back in the day to put the board on its toes and sweat a little?

Some hard questions have been tabled also. Like when will dividends start again. And another like is it worth talking about that when management will be buying out minority shareholders. Waiting for management response on these two key questions. Or if management will not give clear response. And further bears will be released

Princkez:
on full bid...OANDO

BabsO2:
Oando AGM is on Monday 06-Nov-2023

Will the AGM release bears or bulls ?

Some bulls have been released.
And meeting never start. Only advertorials with nice background beats.
Meeting started and more bulls released.
Offers drying out. Either bought or withdrawn to be re-offered at higher prices.

Oando AGM is on Monday 06-Nov-2023

Will the AGM release bears or bulls ?

robobo:
Above was just after release of half year result when the price was struggling to hold on to the 15-17 price range


If Tony pay anything btw 3-4 in final dividend (which is very conservative at EPS already at 12.94) then be rest assured UBA would definitely go to high 20s / low 30s

I forecast a final dividend of 1.5 or at best best 2.5 max. This is premised on the assumption that UBA will want to continue growing organically as much as possible. The 2.5 max will be to support undue excessive sell-off and volatility in the share price which will not be a good image.

robobo:
i dont see it as mobbing, the total units bought is still under 40-million (for a coy with 34.2b outstanding shares).

i see it more as a signal that the owners of the company see more value in the company going forward at this present price (despite the fact that the price has had a run from 8 to 21 recently)\.

hence it is more of a signalling technique by TOE

It's the way the disclosure alerts cluttered the page. They should just roll up what each director bought in a week or month. Abi it is transparency best practice to report daily as transactions take place. That will lead to too much mobbing of the page

aj8:

What is happening!!!

Directors mobbing the shares. A new word on this page
Or is a new development by directors when they are released to trade in their shares
Let us see how much they can mob.

essentialone:
CHAMS at 2.01
JAPAUL at 1.21

Is the Party over?

Many stocks ceased Monday rally on Thursday. Hope the November bears have not been released.

Zagee:
Well, financial appropriateness(intellectual propaganda) of some sorts.

The Securitization and the expected 2m bbl to Dangote refinery(though not at full capacity) has painted the gov't actionable.

Let's see how fx pressure relaxes on fuel import and the resultant fx market effect.

Waiting to see what translation factor will be apparent in ETI Q3 once it is released. Most likely it should stay fixed like Q2 at 756

Zagee:
Our dollar speculators, its time to reasses your position atleast from now till January. 750 looking feasible.

Looking at ETI Q2 the translation factor used for USD to Naira is N756 per $1.
It is safe to assume 750 or 756 or thereabouts is the rate all the banks used for their forex gains and about what the CBN wishes or projects or targets
Otherwise there will be instability in bank reports.

Locotrader:
Cadbury was once like Nestle.
It was marking Nestle closely until kasala burst.
Nestle to me is a falling knife.Put your money where you will see value in a short time.

Correct advice.
Nestle will likely drop severely in the next 3 months due to the bad results.

aj8:
1. First Bank N53.7bill
2. UBA. N41.7bill
3. Access N30.1bill
4. Zenith Bank N24.95bill
5. FCMB. N12.5bill
6. GTCO. (-N4.bill)

All as at 1st January 2023.

Should influence income statement in H1and[b] if the ratio of First Bank is anything to go by i.e N53.667 to N210.16 bill = x3.916 [/b], the maths could be interesting. Let’s see how the maths plays out with Zenith Bank H1 first.

Trying to update and expand the above old post with Q2 and Q3 and more reserve numbers

For example UBA reads as follows
Foreign Ops Translation Reserves 41.7b -> 308.7b -> 302.1b
Fair Value Reserves 88.7b -> 248.5b ->250.1b
Retained Earnings 429.5b -> 683.0b ->750.8b

ositadima1:
I've already made it clear that if you're going against gravity, you'll need an external force.

For example, if you want to lift a rocket, you need fuel. At 200 meters, the potential energy is higher than at ground level. This same principle applies to osmosis: it has to move from higher concentration to lower concentration. However, unlike a rocket, osmosis is a spontaneous process that occurs naturally.

If you want water to move from lower concentration to higher concentration across a membrane(like in the rocket example), you'll need to make it happen artificially.

Seriously, their definition is wrong and would fail an exam.

Will need to read up on osmosis to refresh its exact meaning as it is more under biology i guess.
But looking at hygroscopic or capillary forces. They cause water to flow against gravity. They are due to net imbalances in other forces at the atomic level. And there are so many forces at the atomic level which physicists say are far greater in value than the gravitational one we see and can easily relate with. That's why a nuclear bomb is possible. Where massive amount of energy (force x distance) is released by a change from one atom to another under the right conditions that are possible.

ositadima1:
You mentioned osmotic pressure. I can tell you that you can't have pressure without a potential difference. You must have a high-potential side and a low-potential side, then pressure begins to push from high to low. The same principle applies in biology, physics, chemistry, and electricity.

Remember also hygroscopic pressure.

Apart from gravitational and momentum (motion) induced pressure (force/area) there are other causes of force (pressure i.e force/area) which may work against gravity or any other force as long as it is of a greater value. I can take the fundamental physics component of this BA
Osmotic pressure may be related more with Chemistry and Biology and cannot comment on how it works at the moment. I am sure it will have some explanations using physics. There are so many forces in physics apart from gravitational. Strong Force, Weak Force etc. May need to go back to Engineering Physics to refresh

aj8:
To understand what’s happening you need to peruse UBA’S report. Check Note 5. Expect even more of such for FBN

Looks like you mean note 9 leading to 23c

aj8:
UBA and FBN have significant offshore presence and hence earn foreign exchange via interest rates abroad. FBN likely to outpace UBA’S foreign exchange earnings by about 20%.

Are you saying FBNH understated FX gains. That more gains will be delivered in FBNH full year than currently reported in Q3. While UBA already reported the all z gains and by full year FBNH FX gains will exceed UBA gains.

If so that could explain the rally in FBNH, as some vested money bags mop up available offers since they know the value. This will make them also mop the rights in full.

Locotrader:
Today's market better than yesterday.
More funds coming to the market.
More strength to Japaul

Indeed today's bull looks stronger than yesterday's, making October close with a nice bull run.
May the Tinubull run you talked about, be the story for November .

Locotrader:
Few stocks I have seen with good numbers will propel a general rally.Today's trading wasn't bad.Tomorrow will be better

Today's number was really good based on Stanbic IBTC daily report. Abeg make the rally run through November.

Sector Update

* The NGX Banking Index gained 120bps on UBA (+4.47%), WEMABANK (+1.26%), ACCESSCORP (+1.18%), and ZENITHBANK (+0.60%). JAIZBANK (-5.95%), STERLINGNG (-1.42%) and FIDELITYBK (-0.61%) lost points.

* The NGX Consumer Goods Index gained 44bps on NNFM (+10.00%), NB (+5.27%), HONYFLOUR (+3.57%), FLOURMILL (+3.45%), and DANGSUGAR (+1.19%). NASCON (-2.76%) and INTBREW (-1.19%) lost points.

* The NGX Oil and Gas Index closed flat.

* The NGX Industrial Index gained 299bps on DANGCEM (+5.77%), CAP (+3.96%), WAPCO (+2.65%). CUTIX (-2.17%) and MEYER (-9.87%) lost points.

yMcy56:
UBA
The so much noised UBA Q3 is out!
Over 250% PAT compared to Q3 2022.........around +287%
Year to date January 01 to September 30......

A good one from UBA

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/39778_UNITED_BANK_FOR_AFRICA_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2023.pdf

This should propel the rally seen today into November. Excellent Numbers from UBA.

emmanuelewumi:
The rate fluctuates, it signals where interest rate is going and what we should be expectings in the stock market.

I know the rate fluctuates.
My discuss in other words,
means
At this moment of 17% on a +20 year bond.
An investment in the bond will likely outperform an average stock or property investment over the next 20 years considering the past performance of average properties and stocks.
And a bond investment also comes with less risks than stocks or property.

Tomorrow or a years time that opportunity should not be there again as bonds need to go back to single digit we hope.

Mpeace:
So if I place 100m in the 2053 bond, I stand to get 17m per year for the next 30years.
No be small thing oh.
Its like this people dont believe Nigeria will ever get better.

If one does a stock (or property) portfolio analysis using time value of money for every invested money and also applies time value of money for every income stream from dividends (or rents) some how or by assumptions (e.g. re-investing the money in stocks). Only a few shares in the portfolio (or few properties) can achieve 17% annualized returns in a 10 to 20 year period.

Like buy and invest in a property in year 2010. With todays valuation on the property and income streams from it less maintenance costs. It is unlikely the property compounded in accretive value to the tune of 17%.

A nation cannot run on such high interest rate without MAJOR problems down the road.

Payment date don land
PRESCO N2.00 Interim dividend
Closure date to earn Dividend 13th November
Payment date 17th November

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/39761_PRESCO_PLC-CORPORATE_ACTIONS_ANNOUNCEMENT_ON_PAYMENT_OP_INTERIM_DIVIDEND_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_OCTOBER_2023.pdf

lasisi:
What actually is wrong with Zenith, UBA, DS and NAHCO wey to release result after board meeting dey hard them?

Even without the result in the market UBA did well today moving from N19 to N19.85

The result coming must be good and is already being priced into the market with this kind of move.

Hogwarthtrades:
Okomu don vex finally, dutty december in motion .. Days like this, you wish Morgan capital offer instant deposit

The way him double PRESCO dividend add jara join no be small vex.

Why has UBA not posted Q3 since management meeting held yesterday. Abi the result needed little correction.

They better release good Q3 numbers to pull up the YTD. So that the November rally can start.