₦airaland Forum

Locotrader:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/39660_CADBURY_NIGERIA_PLC.-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2023.pdf

What a horrible result. What is CADBURY in Nigeria doing with monumental forex loss.
Managed well it should be earning forex from export of value added harvested cocoa from Nigeria. The way PRESCO and OKOMU are doing with harvested palm oil.

Cadbury is the type of company that should be delisted to save local investors from losses due to bad management strategy that looks like zero backward integration/local content.

ositadima1:
Oando and Transcorp histograms covering from 2020 to the day before yesterday. I have also added time elapsed. Although most of the Oando shares over the 3-year period were bought below 6, we see very high interest in Oando at around 10, 12, 13, and 14. Raking in over 550 million units in just 8 days, compared to 1.9 billion units in over 400 days. The possibility of making a new high is there. Regarding Transcorp, the largest block was bought below 1.4. I wouldn't be surprised if the stock falls to the 3 to 4.5 range, as we can see from the histogram that there is relatively large demand there. This is not a buy or sell recommendation, just one way to make sense of the inherent chaos in the market.

Thanks

Mpeace:
Not rhat fantastic but an improvement on precious quarters.
They made in q3, as much profit as they made in q1 and q2 combined.
If they repeat same next quarter then you can expect good dividends since their profit would be more from operations than fx gains. Note that CBN directed banks not to finance dividends and operatuoms from fx gains.

One should not take the Access Q3 profit numbers as cast in stone as they have not been challenged by auditors. Note also, the Access Q3 comprehensive income is negative.

GTCO didn't get a negative experience with Q3 comprehensive income and the market traded slightly down today. Perhaps the market is still digesting the numbers.

It's UBA that dropped seriously today that is worrisome.

onegentleguy:
Update...

ACCESSCORP may likely go on full bid tomorrow.
Her just released Q3 report should lend support to this.
Looks like magt have set out to work on one of the "2 Key things" I referenced above.

Haven't taken an in-depth look at their financial print but it does appear (from a cursory review) that their Nos looks quite promising.

It is well.

CAVEAT; Pls do well to read through my signature below.

Crunch the numbers. I don't think the results will lead to full bid tomorrow. Will trade flat at best.

vacanci:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/39646_NIGERIAN_BREWERIES_PLC.-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2023.pdf

Not doing well. Poor of these businesses for not doing complete backward integration to use 100% local content.

ositadima1:
For Dangote Sugar, I attempted to analyze it using simple statistics and some supply and demand logic. If you look at the histogram (covering 2022 to date) that I pasted below, you will see that the bulk of the volume is in the 12-23 range. This simply means that most of the stock was bought in this range. I hope you see the problem.

A price of 65 makes it a nice three-bagger for those who have been riding it since then. I agree that many are in it for the long term, but many are also in it for several other reasons, such as profit-taking, store of value, and temporary banking. Look at prices above 50. There is not much there in comparison. Breaking out of 70 may not be that easy, and 55 may still be possible.

Remember what someone influential said: "Na statistics we go chop."

Nice histogram. Please over what period is this ? Since PO listing or from when to when ?
Also what are the assumptions. Exact trade price and volume (difficult to get such data) or daily average weighted price and volumes or daily closing price and volumes (data available here and there)

In another news steady offers and accumulations of OANDO ongoing in the price range of N8.95 and N9.00

Those accumulating taking a bet with their money on a turnaround or buyout at a price higher than N7.

And those selling perhaps taking a profit after accumulating at N5.00 and below. And perhaps some longer term major holders selling off some units to balance their portfolio risk in the event of the company ceasing to be a going concern in the worst case scenario.

As more results and information become available, Mr Market will make its judgement in coming months.

ositadima1:
If World War III starts now, some people will rush to argue that their Oracle foresaw the whole thing, lol.

The market is complex, and just looking at foreign charts to decipher what is likely to happen in Nigeria is not enough without analyzing the local climate.

It's been more than six months, and the dollar still hasn't collapsed. The USA has not yet printed itself to oblivion.

Ok nah, continue.

Looks like the dollar collapse forecast is several years old. Even, despite the recent BRICS actions, the dollar seem to just be getting stronger. Predicting the future is not easy. I guess that's one of the reasons investors are advised to use some form of Asset Allocation to hedge against any unfolding scenario.

Mpeace:
FCMB audits q3 resuts and might pay interim dividends. That should be the reason for the CBN approval.
For me, the CBN approval is not the problem. The problem is the lenght of time the said CBN takes to approve.

The letter mentioned audited in one paragraph and unaudited in the last. Perhaps a typo on the letter's last paragraph. It will be nice if they catch up to Fidelity in issuing interim dividend.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/39628_FCMB_GROUP_PLC-OUTCOME_OF_FCMB_GROUP_PLC_BOARD_OF_DIRECTORS'_MEETING__CORPORATE_ACTIONS_OCTOBER_2023.pdf

So Bank unaudited quarterly reports need CBN approval too, before release to NGX.
I expect FCMB BVPS to remain ahead of Fidelity's. And for FCMB EPS to catch up with Fidelity's

robobo:
UBA is finding a twin to pair

It is moving towards joining Zenith and GTCO to form a triplet. By mid year book value per share, UBA has surpassed GTCO. It is inching towards catching Zenith. We need full year results and more results next year to see if UBA has joined Zenith/GTCO club

Tony is doing well. He will be chairing two critical meetings next week Thursday and Friday - UBA and Transcorp respectively. Waiting for the good results that will propel the share prices comfortably above N20 and N7 respectively.

UBA has dusted FBNH and ACCESS behind for good.

Let the major shareholders collect all the FBNH rights at N15.5. That will be a new price resistance level for FBNH till a proper turnaround takes place there.

Locotrader:
Na so so so notice of board meetings we go chop?

It has reduced traffic here.

Abeg, we are waiting for good Q3 numbers to spice the lull.

BabsO2:
Oando dropped to N8.35 today

By noon, Oando now on full bid with no single offer. Last traded price N9.15.
Abi result one come out. Or the market maker just doing his thing.

Some offers started coming in small bits at N9.15 and N9.10
Large bids set up to mop offers at N9.0 and below.

PETERiCHY:
After LOADING afolabi units of UBA 4weeks ago @#13.60k some of us are COMFORTABLY sitting on 2m PAPER PROFIT after pocketing #225k INTERIM DIVIDEND.

Today UBA closed @#17:95 we should EXPECT it @#40 junction after release of their 2023 F/Y results in April 2024.

Better join the MOVING TRAIN 🚂 now else you go EXPLAIN EXPLAIN EXPLAIN tire without EVIDENCE like LOCO

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

Oando dropped to N8.35 today

arasayar:
The real question is do you have sufficient forex to sell to all the dealers of the listed categories. Clearly not, currently even before the ban was lifted companies whose imports were approved would apply for say $1m forex and would be given $5-10k, hence they are majorly in the black market. The real issue is $ liquidity and until we increase inflow unbanninng makes no difference to fx issues.

The flipside will be an increase in customs revenue due to more import duties, cheaper commodities at the expense of employment for locals, while killing local production rather than resolving the issues faced by local producers. Yes we may not have competitive advantage in rice but is that same for toothpick, wheelbarrow, headpan and a whole others, we cannot as over 200m people stick to importing everything, this is not sustainable as we will just keep expanding the unemployment bracket and fueling insecurity.

We need to balance things and see the big picture but this cut and paste approach will lead us no where.

I think we have the comparative advantage for rice production. We have the type of land / water / weather combination that is good for rice production. But Nigeria is a high cost production area for many reasons. Insecurity and cost for security is one of the costs reducing competitiveness amongst many other issues.

Also with a large population it is the right thing to get the people productive instead of waiting to import everything.

emmanuelewumi:
So when will we acquire enough capacity to meet up with local demands, probably when N5000 will buy $1

This policy reversal by CBN is not good for the fragile economy in view of limited national $$$ incomes.

Dunlop failed because of tire importation. Nigeria remains a high cost production area for businesses for several reasons.

mikeapollo:
As per Oando and its de-listing, I did a few checks to find out the NSE/NGX rules and procedures that guide the de-listing of equity securities.
The rules may help investors appreciate the situation better, and possibly inform further investment decisions.

Some of the main points are as follow:

1. the Board of Directors (BOD) of the company (Oando) would pass a resolution to delist
2.. the company (Oando) would notify the NSE/NGX of the Board's recommendation to delist
3. the company (Oando) would apply to the court for necessary legal requirements for delisting its shares
4. the company would organize a Court-ordered Meeting of shareholders (AGM/EGM) to approve or reject the Scheme,
5. the company shall invite the NSE/NGX to the Court-ordered Meeting by a notice not later than 21 days before the meeting.
6. notice of the Court-ordered AGM/EGM shall be published in at least 2 national dailies.
7. the Quotations Committee of NGX shall consider the company's application to ensure the interest of minority shareholders are sufficiently protected
8. the share price at which the dissenting shareholders interest shall be bought shall not be less than the highest price at which the company's shares traded over the six (6) months immediately preceding the date on which the notice of the AGM/EGM at which the resolution to de-list the company was issued ( THIS IS THE REAL ISSUE THAT NEEDS TO BE TACKLED PROPERLY BY THE NGX and SHAREHOLDERS)
9. A company that delisted its shares cannot re-list until after 3 years.

Please Note:
Oando management have only complied with items Nos.1 to 3.
Items Nos.4 to 8 are yet to be achieved.

If the rule per Item No.8 (share price) is strictly adhered to, then Oando would have to pay every minority shareholder the highest in the previous 6 months before the AGM/EGM (which has not yet held).

As per the NGX rule, the 6 month period is counted prior to the exact date of the AGM/EGM. If the AGM/EGM has not held, then there is no valid 6 months to count. So Oando is being mischievous and tricky by trying to make reference to some 6 months and fixing a price of N7.07!

Hence, the higher the share price goes, the higher the potential exit or buyout price that minority shareholders could get as per NGX rules. This is where the NGX and minority shareholders need to exert their powers. It also serves as an opportunity for speculators to see how they could still buy and make profit.

The highest price of Oando was N16 in September

This is just my personal observation and does not translate to investment advice.

The bets I guess in the market right now are
1. The company will turn around
2. The company will tow the path of not being a going concern again and shareholders will be wiped out (the 2021 AFS noted the possibility of the company not being able to meet its debt obligations).
3. The company will go private at N7.0 or at a new higher price.

Also it is worth to note:

A major shareholder exited in Nov 2021 with nearly a 5th of OANDO shares at N6. Perhaps the delisting brouhaha originally was triggered by this shareholder and similar aggrieved ones that tussled for a management takeover. Perhaps not.
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/131_OANDO_PLC_-.pdf

The Audited 2022 AFS was due since end of Aug 2023
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/37413_OANDO_PLC%20OANDO_PLC__CORPORATE_ACTIONS_JANUARY_2023pd.pdf

Adinije:
But it looks like Oando crusaders are shoving it down on people's throat

Please share your take on the stock you are looking at.

I think people talk about stocks they are looking at for various reasons and bets. At one time it was Dangote Foods that overloaded the airwaves. With smaller waves on the other stocks people were looking at.

Please loud it on the stock or stocks you are watching if any abeg.

Nigerialabalaba:
All of una worst pass d wale una dey yab. Na all of una get all dis yeye fraudulent newbie monikas wey una dey take drag beta people hia. On top of dat, una go still dey lie, big fat lie o

Na members of una

Una see dis 3 we...

Looks like you read by comments upside down with special lenses. Easy. Read them again without abuses. My comment on today's trading were based on market watch launched live from broker's software link.

essentialone:
They deliberately shifted the date to after Supreme court Presidential election judgement. Because they are not sure of where Atiku is dragging Tinubu and his Certificate to.

Perhaps also to give more time to release 2022 audited and 2023 quarterlies.

megawealth01:
That was opportunity for short timers that wanted to run for their lives...

OANDO has both gamblers and investors... You are either one of the two or the two...

Choose yours wisely...

I still dey with balablu

The big bids that pulled out were bidding lower than current trading prices. The biggest bids are currently at N8.30 Perhaps those that want to speculatively invest don't want to pay off gamblers, traders and whatever too much profit. As the coast is foggy.

mikeapollo:
I heard the Court has adjourned Oando's filing of Scheme of Arrangement to Nov 28

Looks like that may be the reason the big bids dropped. Leaving offers to out number bids.

mikeapollo:
Peddling anti-Oando news?
These are inconsequential matters.

Easy. All real news and events (bad, neutral and good) affecting the company need to be shared to give bargain hunters more info on their bets. Todays OANDO trade has been choppy. Moving from more bids to more offers when the big bulls pulled out during trading session.

Phlinx:
Thank you for advising on a book that offers strategy on how to invest in stocks that increase in value. However, it hardly answers the simple question: what makes a stock significantly rise on the NSE?

Many things make stocks to significantly rise on the NSE.
The fundamental thing that makes a stock rise on the NSE and any where in the world is sustained rise in earnings per share over time and an outlook that earning levels will be sustained and not be cut short.

KayOn1:
I am currently looking at averaging up on Transcorp come Monday at current price or below. For Oando, sold off 70% already as got in at avg of N5 per unit though Naira depreciation has swallowed all the profit.

Any contrary opinion on Transcorp?

*** NOT A BUY RECOMMENDATION !!!

I have no clue on where Transcorp will end in the short to medium term like a year or two. For me I will not buy more at current prices as I am more of a bargain hunter. Transcorp has long term growth prospects but there are many ifs in its prospects especially with an entry on current price. But follow your instincts plus other good advice after due DD I may be biased because based on current valuation Transcorp moved from 5% of my portfolio to over 15% without raising a finger and is in the three stocks making up 80% of my current portfolio valuation.

KayOn1:
Thank you Boss. I appreciate your response. Looks like there's accumulation going on in 1 of the companies you highlighted if not both but will do my DD over the weekend and see if I can pick up some Afolabi units come Monday.

Respect.

UBA and Transcorp are currently highly priced based on prior year prices. But UBA current book values still look unbelievable. If the number s are correct it is bound to continue rising. But if bloated, there could be surprises if we enter a generational low. So I have no clue of what lies ahead. But in terms of stocks to enter UBA seems still better than many on currently available data and prospects, Except for OANDO which is for qualified investors. High risk and potential high rewards. Couldn't help the urge to average down this week on OANDO. An oga here said one should not play more than 10 or even 20% portfolio investments on such bets. My bets are even lower than these

KayOn1:
Thank you everyone for all the good work being done here.

I am trying to prune down my portfolio and am looking at exiting at least 6 from the 31 below. Any suggestions?

Access, Afriprud, Berger, Caverton, Champion, Chams, Custodian, Cutix, FCMB, Fidelity, Flourmill, Honyflour, Interbrew, JAIZ, Lasaco, Linkassure, Mbenefit, Mbaker, Multiverse, Nahco, Ngxgroup, Oando, Reg Assure, Sterling, Transcorp, UBA, Unilever, UPDC, UPL, Wapco & Wema.

I will do my DD.

Cc: Current price, Wanaj0, EmmanuelEwumi, Customs street, Mcy56, Locotrader, Mcy56, Ositadinma, ObaGadaffi, allhouse.

I can be PM'd if need be.

Thank you everyone once more.

I am not an expert. But I have similar issue. What I have done in the last couple of years is just to hold action on most of my holdings while placing more bets on only a select few like UBA and Transcorp on this you list which made me average down to N5.0 and N0.95 respectively. Sold off BUACEM at about N95 (formerly CCNN for me). I missed averaging down on CHAMS in the last couple of years. But averaged down in some prior years. I plan to exit DANSUGAR should it ever fetch +N100. I bought the PO and have been holding ever since without averaging up or down. Will be interesting to see what the house experts recommend for disposal. For right now it's a hold for most of them and an accumulate for some of them.

mikeapollo:
No updates on Oando today?
What's happening?

The bull took off with full strength at N10.35 (Took off with a full gain of 90kobo from the previous close of N9.45)

The the bull took a break to eat and drink (reload cash as there were too many bears). Bears lurking around quickly stepped in and started knocking the price down in the absence of the bull. Knocked it down in steps to Km9.45 before the bull resurfaced again and started mopping but with less strength. Maybe the bull drank too much water or there were too many bears to chase or it was getting tired. By close of business the bull was able to push the price only up to N9.95. Which means the bull still won todays match but at a big cost.

Will bank impairments continue to rise when Q3 results get issued and start eroding profits of earlier quarters.?

Something to look out for. Especially for banks like Access who did not record much impairments in H1.

Mfunkynation:
Another PnP is happening

Perhaps pumping. Perhaps not. But mere bear bull bets.
Perhaps the first trades at 10am at N7.0 where previous offers not withdrawn promptly. And replaced with Bids for N8.6. Or just different people doing their thing. After all a major shareholder dumped 15.9% total shares of Oando in 2021 at N6.0.

What a major reversal this morning.

Princkez:
Game of OANDO has started this morning oooo

Looks like there are now only bids and no offers. I thought it would trade steady with offers at N7.10 today. As offer was plenty last week. But alas the price has moved from N7.85 to N8.60 as of this moment and no sellers again. What game is playing out ?