₦airaland Forum

ACCESS back ahead of UBA at close of business today with N17.20 versus N17.10 respectively.

UBA beat ACCESS in price for only 2 days.

Market waiting for audited Q2 results for Access.

Then the Oga will become clearer.

Chai. This Oando at this moment has only bids and no offers. Those who bought this year before the month of September are lucky. Either way they win. If Oando remains on the exchange their win will be extraordinary. Looks like the bus is not stopping to pick passengers. People are fighting to enter the moving the bus.

Chai. And the bus was parked for a long time. With the doors wide open with empty seats.

Streetinvestor2:
Oga I am old enough in naija to know when things are being arranged. I tell you the whole thing is set up by oando and its foreign partners hiding under few minority share holders. That is why they did not object the matter.
If I approach you for something I have made serious investment ,I will definitely present a figure and we may even reach agreement before you make it public. In this case oando is the one offering dubious figure so that you make noise/react so they give you small jara or find another way around it.How many minority shareholders requested this with the number of all minority shareholders. The article claim 14 They are ready to accept the request by this few but refused everything in the past by larger number of minority share holders. Did the larger minority shareholders approve all the stripping of oando asset.

I stand oando and its majority shareholders conceived the idea.The only thing that can stop it is if they are not bent on carrying it out or change of mind.You forget this guy wale sabi the law in criminal way.Thr is big prospect in the future for oando and that is why this criminals want to take it private. Naija is too corrupt. Do you remember adevo got to #24 but still they delisted at #19 plus
If they give room of refusal ,I will go private with them .

If they (The Fat OandO cats) conceived it as you say what is their benefit?. [I see lower short sighted benefits for them]

Why are they releasing good announcements instead of bad ones that will facilitate their quick buyout of all common stock holders?.

Why did they list in exchanges outside Nigeria ? [I think they did that out of a vision of making Oando a big concern]

Who are those that have been selling Oando below N7 ? [Most likely aggrieved shareholders fed up with the current management !!!]
From Jan-23 to Aug-23 12% of outstanding Oando Shares were sold at an average price of N5.27. In the first three weeks of this September, 8% of Oando Shares have been sold so far at an average price of N8.24

I think it is in the best interest of OandO major share holders to keep Oando on the local and international stock exchanges to compete with the likes of Seplat and even with the likes of the major International oil companies that they have bought their assets.

This is not a buy or sell recommendation. But my contribution.

Myhelper1:
You go explain tire...we still gonna buy!

Already spotted UBA and have been accumulating for a long time. That's not hidden on this thread. Just adding my views to the discussion on hand.

babaijesha:
FX revaluation gain and fair value gains on derivatives are the Koko for Q2 2023...
If you deduct FX revaluation gains of about NGN13bn...
And fair value gains on derivatives of about NGN348bn from
UBA’s Q2’23 PBT of about NGN344bn.
We should get a negative PBT for UBA Q2 23
This should apply to Gtco and Zenith too.
There is also probability of future adverse movements in FX rate...
We should be cautiously optimisitc.

The elevated Impairments charge need to also be put in the picture. Think they were prudently entered as precautionary provisions.

As I noted earlier 2023Q3 & Q4 data will tell us more. If net interest income stays at elevated levels as seen in 2023H1, it signals good assets. And if this net interest income stays at elevated levels in 2024Q's it will signal UBA is indeed operating at a higher level. Otherwise it signals red flags.

Also if global down turn starts, there is a possibility of Impairments in the Fx assets if they get impacted.

robobo:
really i dont understand how anyone that is holding this stock would sell it for less than 25 (half PBV)

Although it might look like the current performance would not be sustainable given that the major component ( revaluation) is one off but i beg to differ.

On a back of the envelope basis, my take is that UBA EPS going forward would sustain the upward of N8 per share going forward even without revaluation. The revaluation alone add over N800b to the bank asset which if invested in TB at average of 13% is over N100bn profit per year (without any cost) to the bank bottom line i.e. about 3.50 per share which if added to the normalised EPS (before revaluation) of about 4.5 per share would give about N8 per share going forward even without revaluation. Please note that this view goes beyond 2023 to as much as 3-4 years ahead (bar any major mishap from the management)

if 35% of the N8 per share is paid as dividend one would expect a dividend of at least N2.50 (both interim and final) which at N25 per share is a yield of at least 10%.

so i dont understand how any one would want to sell below N25, but to each mallam his kettle.

Selah

Going forward the EPS in Naira terms should be higher if the FX assets are working and not impaired. So if we do not see a step up in Q3 income streams it should suggest something is not right. If the income streams stay up from Q3, Q4 and 2024Q's then UBA has turned into a new beautiful chapter.

ProphetUtuocha:
With a H1 EPS of 10+, UBA is in a class by itself!

Comprehensive income per share which ends up in shareholder funds was even higher at N23.43 per share

UBA BVPS jumped from N 25.494 to N 48.58 (Dec 2022 vs Jun2023) !!

leparj:
Good one from uba.
Makes me feel a bit better not
loading Sugar.
Next up Access.

Suspect Access will try and match UBA in interim dividend.

But don't think Access will be able to match UBA in eps.

In the UBA Access race, I see UBA catching and overtaking Access.

This UBA is super outstanding. Look at how shareholder funds nearly doubled. Just remaining small to catch up with Zenith. That means UBA's African Branch Network must be substantial !

Shalom428:
Nigeria stocks are ridiculously cheap. Long term investors who has holding power and are patient will be massively rewarded when the Nigeria economy finds its balance.

All I see is opportunities.

Shalom

Looking at how MTN is dragging with NCC on being limited to repatriate only about a 3rd of profits only after approval. Going forward all future major FDI's must be made to have substantial Nigerian Equity Participation of even more than 50%. So that there can be enough sustainable pool for pension income streams of pension funds and for individual pension income investors to invest in. So all this upcoming $16b investment coming from India should be partly funded by Nigerian Banks, Pension Funds and Individual Investors. I hope this message gets passed to those that can make it happen.

.

Princkez:
UBA......,50k dividend

Access now has no option but to pay 50k to level up

.

emmanuelewumi:
Yield on long term bonds should get to 18% by December

If this happens, it will mute a Q4 stock rally. And may drag share prices down gradually for the rest of the year.

Sep Bond Auction:
29s 14.50%
33s 15.45%
38s 15.55%
53s 16.25%

I hope this trend up in rates in the bond auction today is not the cause of NSE dip today. As fund managers attempt to lock in long term high yields by selling some shares to buy long dated bonds.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/Northern_Nigeria_Flour_Mills_Q1_June_2023.pdf

This is good result from NNFM. Let me put it in my radar.

Their business size looks small. Their profit will just be +/- N1b
Do they have prospect for growth ?

Mpeace:
So Gtb has overtaken Zenith eps

That's what the half year per share says in their reports.

But in terms of Bank size, Zenith is about double the size of GTCO based on Financials.

Streetinvestor2:
make sure you use price limit then add thrr commission. They should be sending you contract note which shows the break down to your mail.You can demand that if they are not doing it

That's true. If price limit is not used. The broker can use his discretion to even buy at the highest price for the day.

Labdi69:
I noticed that whenever i buy shares on the Meritrade platform, the price paid is always higher than the last quoted price i saw, leading to automatic initial loss. Is this normal?

Rounded up to a whole percent 2% is charged. Hence if stock price is N100. You will be charged N102 rounded off to the largest whole number. The real charge is actually less that 2% just trying to make it simple to understand. That's why I rounded it to the higher whole number.

emmasoft:
GTCO and Zenith will always try to match themselves when it comes to dividends generally.

Both are really competing seriously in the game of returns per share. From the mid year reports the following EPS were recorded
GTCO = N 9.94
Zenith = N 9.29

Mfunkynation:
my pillow says N0.35k

That will be fair in view of how GTCO & Fidelity have raised the bar.

Will the market react to the Tribunal Victory of PBAT or the victory is already priced into stock prices. ?
Think more like the victory is already priced in and the gradual journey up will continue.

How will the touted upcoming investments lining up from India affect the market. ?
I think it will support the economy and the gradual recovery of the Stock market. I see Naira bonds going down gradually in the coming months in yields as the government borrow less especially at unsustainable high interest rates. A dilemma between allocating funds to lock-in high bond income levels right now and the opportunity cost of missing on the gradual rise of the stock market

currentprice:
similar thing is going on in banking stock right now.. valuation of bank like Access/uba is above N50 how and when will it get there is the issues

can the valuation be consistent? what will move it there i dont know all i know is the bank is undervalued at cp

Many banks over the last ten years have grown faster in book value per share than share price. And players in the market seem locked to prior low market prices and ignoring the increased earning capacity of the banks that currently exist. A N50 valuation for Access/UBA is not an overstatement if the economy becomes more buoyant. However Banks can also lose money and get their shareholder funds seriously eroded. And that fear seem to be more in the market at the moment.

phoinix:
To me, it was a smart move by the parent company. The depressed exchange rate has made many businesses denominated in naira very cheap. Many people don't understand the full impact that the exchange rate and subsequent crazy inflation have had on the naira. It's like buying a business for one-third its original price. A good deal for the buyer, and a bad deal for the seller who gets a bunch of naira bills that are now worth far less. LOL.

Thought of that. How companies tend to be underpriced in real terms on the NGX due to naira devaluation.

Also thinking further - If a business needs to inject cash to take up new opportunities. With the way shares are currently undervalued it suggests current shareholders will not be able to bring the funds to take up such opportunities. And raising money afresh will be a huge dilution to current shareholders. But if the opportunity is strong majority shareholders with deep pockets can always fund it.

unite4real:
If you haven't been selling, it's not yet an income. Still on paper.

In the stock market, you don't really loose or gain until you sell.

Congratulations though

In the stock market dividends are gains you see without selling. My dividends from PRESCO are extremely high when compared to my cost price.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/39357_PRESCO_PLC-_NOTICES_OF_ANNUAL_GENERAL_MEETING_(AGM)_-__ANNUAL_GENERAL_MEETING_(AGM)_AUGUST_2023.pdf

Presco proposing a dividend of N6.8 to be paid 03-Oct-2023

Looking back at the 2006 PO of Dangote Sugar. The book value per share was roughly N2 and the PO was N18.

If one projects with this x9 price book value. DSR should be + N120 now.

Not a buy or sell recommendation.
Just a recall of the kind of premium Dangote Sugar fetched back in 2006 based on Book Value benchmark.

BabsO2:
Assuming a rights price of N16.7
Market mark up of N+3 in view
Let's see if Ote$ will deliver N+6 mark level.

Not a buy or sell recommendation. Just watching the market.

Ah, some last minute sellers eroded the N+3 opportunity today.

locodemy:
No need to put much attention.
The stock is not for minority.
They are even regreting the move that took it to #4 self.
I am beginning to avoid stocks that has something with Tony.
I expected the market to react positive to yesterday's news but it was a sluggish move.
The bears will soon descend on the stock and I am expecting the 4% MTO from them at sub #3.

Mr Market raised Transcorp up 4% today.

yMcy56:
FBNH
Otedola's tenure will favour me and my family.....
N4.6B spent so far.....

Assuming a rights price of N16.7
Market mark up of N+3 in view
Let's see if Ote$ will deliver N+6 mark level.

Not a buy or sell recommendation. Just watching the market.

Looks like August will not witness major declines like some other years. However the bull seem to be taking an August break. Waiting for the next stimuli to act. The market acted unconcerned with the declaration of Ministers and announcement of their portfolios. The bulls and bears are now waiting for mid year audited results of the banks that will pay interim dividend and other major political developments.