₦airaland Forum

Oando AGM is on Monday 06-Nov-2023

Will the AGM release bears or bulls ?

robobo:
Above was just after release of half year result when the price was struggling to hold on to the 15-17 price range


If Tony pay anything btw 3-4 in final dividend (which is very conservative at EPS already at 12.94) then be rest assured UBA would definitely go to high 20s / low 30s

I forecast a final dividend of 1.5 or at best best 2.5 max. This is premised on the assumption that UBA will want to continue growing organically as much as possible. The 2.5 max will be to support undue excessive sell-off and volatility in the share price which will not be a good image.

robobo:
i dont see it as mobbing, the total units bought is still under 40-million (for a coy with 34.2b outstanding shares).

i see it more as a signal that the owners of the company see more value in the company going forward at this present price (despite the fact that the price has had a run from 8 to 21 recently)\.

hence it is more of a signalling technique by TOE

It's the way the disclosure alerts cluttered the page. They should just roll up what each director bought in a week or month. Abi it is transparency best practice to report daily as transactions take place. That will lead to too much mobbing of the page

aj8:

What is happening!!!

Directors mobbing the shares. A new word on this page
Or is a new development by directors when they are released to trade in their shares
Let us see how much they can mob.

essentialone:
CHAMS at 2.01
JAPAUL at 1.21

Is the Party over?

Many stocks ceased Monday rally on Thursday. Hope the November bears have not been released.

Zagee:
Well, financial appropriateness(intellectual propaganda) of some sorts.

The Securitization and the expected 2m bbl to Dangote refinery(though not at full capacity) has painted the gov't actionable.

Let's see how fx pressure relaxes on fuel import and the resultant fx market effect.

Waiting to see what translation factor will be apparent in ETI Q3 once it is released. Most likely it should stay fixed like Q2 at 756

Zagee:
Our dollar speculators, its time to reasses your position atleast from now till January. 750 looking feasible.

Looking at ETI Q2 the translation factor used for USD to Naira is N756 per $1.
It is safe to assume 750 or 756 or thereabouts is the rate all the banks used for their forex gains and about what the CBN wishes or projects or targets
Otherwise there will be instability in bank reports.

Locotrader:
Cadbury was once like Nestle.
It was marking Nestle closely until kasala burst.
Nestle to me is a falling knife.Put your money where you will see value in a short time.

Correct advice.
Nestle will likely drop severely in the next 3 months due to the bad results.

aj8:
1. First Bank N53.7bill
2. UBA. N41.7bill
3. Access N30.1bill
4. Zenith Bank N24.95bill
5. FCMB. N12.5bill
6. GTCO. (-N4.bill)

All as at 1st January 2023.

Should influence income statement in H1and[b] if the ratio of First Bank is anything to go by i.e N53.667 to N210.16 bill = x3.916 [/b], the maths could be interesting. Let’s see how the maths plays out with Zenith Bank H1 first.

Trying to update and expand the above old post with Q2 and Q3 and more reserve numbers

For example UBA reads as follows
Foreign Ops Translation Reserves 41.7b -> 308.7b -> 302.1b
Fair Value Reserves 88.7b -> 248.5b ->250.1b
Retained Earnings 429.5b -> 683.0b ->750.8b

ositadima1:
I've already made it clear that if you're going against gravity, you'll need an external force.

For example, if you want to lift a rocket, you need fuel. At 200 meters, the potential energy is higher than at ground level. This same principle applies to osmosis: it has to move from higher concentration to lower concentration. However, unlike a rocket, osmosis is a spontaneous process that occurs naturally.

If you want water to move from lower concentration to higher concentration across a membrane(like in the rocket example), you'll need to make it happen artificially.

Seriously, their definition is wrong and would fail an exam.

Will need to read up on osmosis to refresh its exact meaning as it is more under biology i guess.
But looking at hygroscopic or capillary forces. They cause water to flow against gravity. They are due to net imbalances in other forces at the atomic level. And there are so many forces at the atomic level which physicists say are far greater in value than the gravitational one we see and can easily relate with. That's why a nuclear bomb is possible. Where massive amount of energy (force x distance) is released by a change from one atom to another under the right conditions that are possible.

ositadima1:
You mentioned osmotic pressure. I can tell you that you can't have pressure without a potential difference. You must have a high-potential side and a low-potential side, then pressure begins to push from high to low. The same principle applies in biology, physics, chemistry, and electricity.

Remember also hygroscopic pressure.

Apart from gravitational and momentum (motion) induced pressure (force/area) there are other causes of force (pressure i.e force/area) which may work against gravity or any other force as long as it is of a greater value. I can take the fundamental physics component of this BA
Osmotic pressure may be related more with Chemistry and Biology and cannot comment on how it works at the moment. I am sure it will have some explanations using physics. There are so many forces in physics apart from gravitational. Strong Force, Weak Force etc. May need to go back to Engineering Physics to refresh

aj8:
To understand what’s happening you need to peruse UBA’S report. Check Note 5. Expect even more of such for FBN

Looks like you mean note 9 leading to 23c

aj8:
UBA and FBN have significant offshore presence and hence earn foreign exchange via interest rates abroad. FBN likely to outpace UBA’S foreign exchange earnings by about 20%.

Are you saying FBNH understated FX gains. That more gains will be delivered in FBNH full year than currently reported in Q3. While UBA already reported the all z gains and by full year FBNH FX gains will exceed UBA gains.

If so that could explain the rally in FBNH, as some vested money bags mop up available offers since they know the value. This will make them also mop the rights in full.

Locotrader:
Today's market better than yesterday.
More funds coming to the market.
More strength to Japaul

Indeed today's bull looks stronger than yesterday's, making October close with a nice bull run.
May the Tinubull run you talked about, be the story for November .

Locotrader:
Few stocks I have seen with good numbers will propel a general rally.Today's trading wasn't bad.Tomorrow will be better

Today's number was really good based on Stanbic IBTC daily report. Abeg make the rally run through November.

Sector Update

* The NGX Banking Index gained 120bps on UBA (+4.47%), WEMABANK (+1.26%), ACCESSCORP (+1.18%), and ZENITHBANK (+0.60%). JAIZBANK (-5.95%), STERLINGNG (-1.42%) and FIDELITYBK (-0.61%) lost points.

* The NGX Consumer Goods Index gained 44bps on NNFM (+10.00%), NB (+5.27%), HONYFLOUR (+3.57%), FLOURMILL (+3.45%), and DANGSUGAR (+1.19%). NASCON (-2.76%) and INTBREW (-1.19%) lost points.

* The NGX Oil and Gas Index closed flat.

* The NGX Industrial Index gained 299bps on DANGCEM (+5.77%), CAP (+3.96%), WAPCO (+2.65%). CUTIX (-2.17%) and MEYER (-9.87%) lost points.

yMcy56:
UBA
The so much noised UBA Q3 is out!
Over 250% PAT compared to Q3 2022.........around +287%
Year to date January 01 to September 30......

A good one from UBA

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/39778_UNITED_BANK_FOR_AFRICA_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2023.pdf

This should propel the rally seen today into November. Excellent Numbers from UBA.

emmanuelewumi:
The rate fluctuates, it signals where interest rate is going and what we should be expectings in the stock market.

I know the rate fluctuates.
My discuss in other words,
means
At this moment of 17% on a +20 year bond.
An investment in the bond will likely outperform an average stock or property investment over the next 20 years considering the past performance of average properties and stocks.
And a bond investment also comes with less risks than stocks or property.

Tomorrow or a years time that opportunity should not be there again as bonds need to go back to single digit we hope.

Mpeace:
So if I place 100m in the 2053 bond, I stand to get 17m per year for the next 30years.
No be small thing oh.
Its like this people dont believe Nigeria will ever get better.

If one does a stock (or property) portfolio analysis using time value of money for every invested money and also applies time value of money for every income stream from dividends (or rents) some how or by assumptions (e.g. re-investing the money in stocks). Only a few shares in the portfolio (or few properties) can achieve 17% annualized returns in a 10 to 20 year period.

Like buy and invest in a property in year 2010. With todays valuation on the property and income streams from it less maintenance costs. It is unlikely the property compounded in accretive value to the tune of 17%.

A nation cannot run on such high interest rate without MAJOR problems down the road.

Payment date don land
PRESCO N2.00 Interim dividend
Closure date to earn Dividend 13th November
Payment date 17th November

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/39761_PRESCO_PLC-CORPORATE_ACTIONS_ANNOUNCEMENT_ON_PAYMENT_OP_INTERIM_DIVIDEND_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_OCTOBER_2023.pdf

lasisi:
What actually is wrong with Zenith, UBA, DS and NAHCO wey to release result after board meeting dey hard them?

Even without the result in the market UBA did well today moving from N19 to N19.85

The result coming must be good and is already being priced into the market with this kind of move.

Hogwarthtrades:
Okomu don vex finally, dutty december in motion .. Days like this, you wish Morgan capital offer instant deposit

The way him double PRESCO dividend add jara join no be small vex.

Why has UBA not posted Q3 since management meeting held yesterday. Abi the result needed little correction.

They better release good Q3 numbers to pull up the YTD. So that the November rally can start.

Locotrader:
Market going up from Monday oooo.
Don't let anyone bias your mind.
Make sure you lay your hand on any of the stocks with good Q3.Xmas is coming earlier than expected.

A strong November rally will be good. Many stocks are still relatively under priced looking at simple PE & P/B ratios. Also Nigeria and Africa still remains a strong growth area compared to the developed world.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/39689_NASCON_ALLIED_INDUSTRIES_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2023.pdf

Another good one for the market with wealth creation.

Ginalex:
when is Qualification date?

Market is waiting for that information. It has not been released.

essentialone:
Flourmills Plc.

Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Not a buy for now. Perhaps a hold for some shareholders or a sell for savvy shareholders who have spotted other better accretive opportunities.

Not a buy or sell or hold recommendation. Just a quick take. DD required for actions taken.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/39680_FLOUR_MILLS_OF_NIGERIA_PLC-_QUARTER_2_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2023.pdf

More reports like this can pull the market down

PRESCO giving N2 interim dividend .

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/39672_PRESCO_PLC-BOARD_RESOLUTIONS_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_OCTOBER_2023.pdf

Waiting for announcement of payment date. This one is just letter to notify management has approved an interim dividend payment.

Locotrader:
Can you take a look at July to sept revenue?
Does it mean there was no business for the period?
I expected the revenue to surpass the previous yr revenue but it retarded.

Anyway, the overall result not bad.There are 2 persons appointed to the board according to the report.I think there is restructuring going on now.Japaul is also expected to rally as I am very much bullish on it.Also my 100% portfolio for now

Looks like their revenue is not steady. Perhaps business was just low this last quarter. Or the revenue is on the way but they do not want to accrue for it. Only management knows. What is the source of their revenues this year ? That may help in explaining your questions further.

Having 100% of portfolio is a risky bet. However high risk higher rewards. It's OANDO I am betting on at the moment, hoping their SHF will turn positive soon like Japaul's. But i don't think my bet is even up to 5% of my portfolio.

essentialone:
Japaul is on Full Bid.

What is the Fair Value price of Japaul?

Japaul SHF moved from negative to a solid positive with the Q3 numbers.

BabsO2:
What a horrible result. What is CADBURY in Nigeria doing with monumental forex loss.
Managed well it should be earning forex from export of value added harvested cocoa from Nigeria. The way PRESCO and OKOMU are doing with harvested palm oil.

Cadbury is the type of company that should be delisted to save local investors from losses due to bad management strategy that looks like zero backward integration/local content.

See results of PRESCO, a company with strategy of exploiting local comparative advantages to create wealth. See how shareholder funds is growing. See how profits are growing.
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/39678_PRESCO_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2023.pdf

While useless companies like Cadbury are leaning on oil and gas forex instead of growing their own forex. Cadbury in its Q3 eroded more than two thirds of Shareholder funds due to their bad strategy of not exploiting Nigeria's comparative advantage in Cocoa production.

Yoast:
Are we having another TinubuBull over the supreme court ruling?

Market released TinuBull over the last six months. Yesterday verdict already priced into the market. Market now needs to assess unfolding developments on economic growth measured by rising CBN Fx reserves, GDP growth, improved security for Agric etc will be the next set of signals to release bulls or even bears.