₦airaland Forum

mikeapollo:
I heard the Court has adjourned Oando's filing of Scheme of Arrangement to Nov 28

Looks like that may be the reason the big bids dropped. Leaving offers to out number bids.

mikeapollo:
Peddling anti-Oando news?
These are inconsequential matters.

Easy. All real news and events (bad, neutral and good) affecting the company need to be shared to give bargain hunters more info on their bets. Todays OANDO trade has been choppy. Moving from more bids to more offers when the big bulls pulled out during trading session.

Phlinx:
Thank you for advising on a book that offers strategy on how to invest in stocks that increase in value. However, it hardly answers the simple question: what makes a stock significantly rise on the NSE?

Many things make stocks to significantly rise on the NSE.
The fundamental thing that makes a stock rise on the NSE and any where in the world is sustained rise in earnings per share over time and an outlook that earning levels will be sustained and not be cut short.

KayOn1:
I am currently looking at averaging up on Transcorp come Monday at current price or below. For Oando, sold off 70% already as got in at avg of N5 per unit though Naira depreciation has swallowed all the profit.

Any contrary opinion on Transcorp?

*** NOT A BUY RECOMMENDATION !!!

I have no clue on where Transcorp will end in the short to medium term like a year or two. For me I will not buy more at current prices as I am more of a bargain hunter. Transcorp has long term growth prospects but there are many ifs in its prospects especially with an entry on current price. But follow your instincts plus other good advice after due DD I may be biased because based on current valuation Transcorp moved from 5% of my portfolio to over 15% without raising a finger and is in the three stocks making up 80% of my current portfolio valuation.

KayOn1:
Thank you Boss. I appreciate your response. Looks like there's accumulation going on in 1 of the companies you highlighted if not both but will do my DD over the weekend and see if I can pick up some Afolabi units come Monday.

Respect.

UBA and Transcorp are currently highly priced based on prior year prices. But UBA current book values still look unbelievable. If the number s are correct it is bound to continue rising. But if bloated, there could be surprises if we enter a generational low. So I have no clue of what lies ahead. But in terms of stocks to enter UBA seems still better than many on currently available data and prospects, Except for OANDO which is for qualified investors. High risk and potential high rewards. Couldn't help the urge to average down this week on OANDO. An oga here said one should not play more than 10 or even 20% portfolio investments on such bets. My bets are even lower than these

KayOn1:
Thank you everyone for all the good work being done here.

I am trying to prune down my portfolio and am looking at exiting at least 6 from the 31 below. Any suggestions?

Access, Afriprud, Berger, Caverton, Champion, Chams, Custodian, Cutix, FCMB, Fidelity, Flourmill, Honyflour, Interbrew, JAIZ, Lasaco, Linkassure, Mbenefit, Mbaker, Multiverse, Nahco, Ngxgroup, Oando, Reg Assure, Sterling, Transcorp, UBA, Unilever, UPDC, UPL, Wapco & Wema.

I will do my DD.

Cc: Current price, Wanaj0, EmmanuelEwumi, Customs street, Mcy56, Locotrader, Mcy56, Ositadinma, ObaGadaffi, allhouse.

I can be PM'd if need be.

Thank you everyone once more.

I am not an expert. But I have similar issue. What I have done in the last couple of years is just to hold action on most of my holdings while placing more bets on only a select few like UBA and Transcorp on this you list which made me average down to N5.0 and N0.95 respectively. Sold off BUACEM at about N95 (formerly CCNN for me). I missed averaging down on CHAMS in the last couple of years. But averaged down in some prior years. I plan to exit DANSUGAR should it ever fetch +N100. I bought the PO and have been holding ever since without averaging up or down. Will be interesting to see what the house experts recommend for disposal. For right now it's a hold for most of them and an accumulate for some of them.

mikeapollo:
No updates on Oando today?
What's happening?

The bull took off with full strength at N10.35 (Took off with a full gain of 90kobo from the previous close of N9.45)

The the bull took a break to eat and drink (reload cash as there were too many bears). Bears lurking around quickly stepped in and started knocking the price down in the absence of the bull. Knocked it down in steps to Km9.45 before the bull resurfaced again and started mopping but with less strength. Maybe the bull drank too much water or there were too many bears to chase or it was getting tired. By close of business the bull was able to push the price only up to N9.95. Which means the bull still won todays match but at a big cost.

Will bank impairments continue to rise when Q3 results get issued and start eroding profits of earlier quarters.?

Something to look out for. Especially for banks like Access who did not record much impairments in H1.

Mfunkynation:
Another PnP is happening

Perhaps pumping. Perhaps not. But mere bear bull bets.
Perhaps the first trades at 10am at N7.0 where previous offers not withdrawn promptly. And replaced with Bids for N8.6. Or just different people doing their thing. After all a major shareholder dumped 15.9% total shares of Oando in 2021 at N6.0.

What a major reversal this morning.

Princkez:
Game of OANDO has started this morning oooo

Looks like there are now only bids and no offers. I thought it would trade steady with offers at N7.10 today. As offer was plenty last week. But alas the price has moved from N7.85 to N8.60 as of this moment and no sellers again. What game is playing out ?

.

sky2891:
OANDO

Suit No: FHC/L/CP/494/2021

sky2891:
Please, what if this court case is not concluded on 10th October? Maybe adjourned after the 10th October court session till a later date.
How will the market possibly react?

Which case on 10th Oct?

DeRuggedProf:
Those who trade Oando are those who used this means of transport to school..

Nothing like school bus back then. I think they mostly trekked, some on bare foot.

That picture na bo le ka ja.

All eyes on OANDO
Na wah

This PRESCO forecast looks good. It will sustain current dividends payment comfortably with lots of change when it materializes in the 2023 audited end year report.
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/142_Presco_PLC_Fourth_Quarter_Forecast.pdf

BabsO2:
It's the growth aspect of stocks I like.

Buying PRESCO at N16 in 2008. Getting a 1 for 1 bonus bringing the effective entry price to N8 since initial purchase.
Collected dividend of N8.8 last year. And already collected another N6 this year. Finding and owning stocks that create value is really nice. They create money for an investor without the need of dumping losses on other investors.

Will banks continue to create value like they did in the last 10 years and sustain their dividend payments. ?
I think this depends on the trajectory of Nigeria's economy. If the economy grows it creates the opportunity for the banks to grow. And for banks invested in other African countries, if those countries grow it will help. But any pull backs could be devastating. Generally Africa should be a growth play as it is under-developed. But with bad leadership this growth may not materialize. That's an area to watch for the long term investor interested in value creation.
Apart from growth from the economy. Each bank will answer for mis-managements and excessive risk taking. One needs a close eye on management.

unite4real:
How do you expect an investor who took positions in UCAP and fidelity bank at around N2 few years ago to understand what you just said. The one in UCAP who is still holding will be getting nothing less than 75% dividend yield today and it will get to 100% the moment they started paying dividend of more than N2 per unit. To your tents O' Israel.

It's the growth aspect of stocks I like.

Buying PRESCO at N16 in 2008. Getting a 1 for 1 bonus bringing the effective entry price to N8 since initial purchase.
Collected dividend of N8.8 last year. And already collected another N6 this year. Finding and owning stocks that create value is really nice. They create money for an investor without the need of dumping losses on other investors.

mikeapollo:
It is painful. and I agree that the Oando management has not been very proactive in releasing and managing information about the company.
But something still tells me that something drastic could still happen that would favour Oando shareholders....like a die minute positive news!

A clear message from management that they do not want to pursue delisting but prefer to remain listed on the Stock Exchange pending minority voting will be a positive signal. But stuff like not wanting the scrutiny of issuing reports as required for listings sends a very negative message.

mikeapollo:
The Oando market is like what the Yoruba people call '' igbo o da ju'' ....... a thick scary forest that only the brave and bold can enter!

Many have entered OANDO in time past with the offers (Rights and PO). Some with serious Odaju (boldness) with their money. Management seem to have destroyed their funds and is not giving good information on progressive use of their funds.

Market Snapshot - OANDO
Comment: Unless a market maker or strategic buyer or new news (uplift breeze) comes up it's a free fall.

Market Snapshot - UBA
Comment: Near balance in bids versus demand volumes. With an upwards price push at the moment.

Market Snapshot - ACCESS
Comment: Dumping of shares ongoing. With light mop up. A resultant sharp price down at the moment.

OANDO
A key benefit of delisting is the freedom for the company to focus on investing for the long run without the pressures (& wranglings over poor/bad management) from some strong shareholders. The company also still needs a lot of funds (common shareholders may not be ready to foot this bill again) for the aggressive expansion it is embarking on and may not be able to deliver substantial profits in the short term. The delisting does not augur well for Shareholders who participated in all the various offers (rights & PO) at higher prices, injecting more valuable naira in years past, only to be given a highly devalued N7.07 Also the management does not seem to have used investor funds well (as inference from all the brouhaha) but is still somehow acquiring more strategic assets which can benefit shareholders on the long run if properly managed. Management need to be clear on the their position with respect to delisting. None clarity means delisting is likely. What is the position of top OANDO management with delisting ?

sky2891:
Copied:

*Summary*

*UBA*
PBT - N403.6B
PAT -. N378.2
EPS-. N10.96
CIPS- N23.43
Total OCI - N821.03
Interim Div - 0.50k

*GTCO*
PBT -. N327.3B
PAT -. N280.4B
EPS- N9.94
CIPS- N11.92
Total OCI -. N358.9B
Interim Div -N0.50K

*Zenith Bank Plc*
PBT - N350.3B
PAT -. N291.7B
EPS-. N9.29
CIPS- N15.73
Total OCI -. N494.09B
Interim Div- N0.50K

*Access Bank Plc*
PBT -. N167B
PAT -. N135B
EPS- N3.74
CIPS- N13.97
Total OCI -. N556.78B
Interim Div - N0.30k

Since it's the comprehensive income per share that usually ends up in shareholder funds, I added the CIPS - Comprehensive Income Per Share to the picture. This makes ACCESS Bank to still rank ahead of GT & Zenith from the perspective of rate of accumulations to individual shareholders from the fx revaluations of these banks. Thus I see no need for dumping of Access Shares. More of a HOLD, except one has other strategic plans.

customstreet:
• As OANDO Plc’s litigation hearing nears, (scheduled for October 10, 2023) it can be observed that investors interest is receding, as the stock traded about 60 million units today losing 9.89% in price, to close at NGN11.85.

For me, I still believe that there is nothing Wale Tinubu want to get on this delisting that he can not get. He has hunted the regulators down, more so that one of his own is now in power.

In a nutshell, I believe the delisting would still go ahead. Since most company getting delisted have alternatives trading their shares, I mean NASD. I am 70% sure that the company would be delisted. This is my own personal opinion

Aaaah.
A key benefit of delisting is the freedom for the company to focus on investing for the long run without the pressures (& wranglings over poor/bad management) from some strong shareholders to deliver substantial profits in the short term. This delisting does not augur well for Shareholders who participated in all the various offers (rights & PO) at higher prices, injecting more valuable naira in years past, only to be given a highly devalued N7.07

Frangel:
I totally agree with you. Herbert has significantly increased his indirect holdings in H1 through his offshore interest.

I will want to buy more if investors are generally dissatisfied with the low interim div and the price falls significantly lower.

It's a HOLD for me. Till signs of jump in interest income or Jump in Trade/Other income are reported. There is a high likelihood of the price dropping next week if no market maker (& or insider who know more) mops the shares dumped next week. I guess subsequent TA will give a good guess of what's up.

Frangel:
Fx gains was included to arrive at PAT (Notes 11+12).

My fear is they are expanding too fast (mostly inorganic). Could be catastrophic if not well managed. Anyway, the higher the risk the higher the gains, all things going well. Reason why I have some for the great future potentials.

Yes they have borrowed forex to use for expansion. I noted that earlier in this thread (several pages back). The load of the fx additional tier 1 capital will surely reduce fortunes of common Naira shareholders, especially if the growth they deployed the fx to is currently not yielding fx income. The tier 1 fx instrument holders will always get their returns first in fx before the common shareholders get the left over. And this will tend to reduce the earnings per share to shareholders till their fx assets start bearing fruit. However should their expansions bear good fruit in months and years ahead, common naira shareholders on NGX will reap bountifully. This reward may be round the corner or may be far off who knows? Since management have been acquiring shares perhaps it may not be far off.

lancee:
Access bank .. Ahead of uba now ..Is result coming soon

With respect to Access and even FBNH,

UBA closed higher at N17.45

Perhaps in readiness for dividend markdown next week.

onegentleguy:
On OANDO...

As I stated earlier, a price of N20--25 is feasible though not without "bumps" every now and then as the stock pricing looks to respect technicals.
Pricing of assets in the financial markets does not necessarily respect Newtons 1st law of motion.

Technically, trend remains positive across key time-frames. (DWM)

Week 25-29 will be key. As long as pricing reproduces a W&M candle close above the red line as indicated, the probability of a short term trend reversal would be near zero, so long term holders have nothing to worry about.

Next trading activity (Monday) will likely herald the "battle for survival" as buyers wait around that support zone of btw N10--11.
I'd love to see a bounce to btw N10.35--10.50 post rejection at the low band of support then... and from where it could witness a few days of consolidation before another push up to within and then above that N13.3--14.6 now resistant range.

A close at or above the green line as indicated (ref: N12.10) may result in a bit of hesitation on the part of sellers while buyers will need to markup their bargain next week.

It is well.

Similar read out with the TA from BullBearMkt.

In my own words:
High probability for target accumulations from dumpers may occur between 10-11. Depending on size of bid forces and offer forces that play in this range a fall further to about 8.4 possible or a rise to +13

BullBearMkt:
Let me attempt to answer your question with TA. IF TA is not your thing, kindly skip the post.

Attached is the monthly outlook of Zenith Bank stock chart. Here:
1. Sellers are located above 34.20 corresponding to the 5 year high
2. Price may either rise or fall. 50-50 chance! There are equal buying and selling pressures ongoing.
3. Both weekly and monthly structures remains bullish (good radiant)
4. Not expecting "great fall in price", but price potentially can fall below 32!
5. 28.50 - 31 is a good bargain at current price.

And for Oando please what does TA say

Willie2015:
Na to pick at N8 naira again
if it comes down to that level..
Ride again till N16....
No love for Oando....
Na for JIJO...

People are waiting for it at various points. Let's see how low it gets. It will likely resist sub N7 and some will rush it before it gets to N8 and prevent it from reaching that junction. Which one will play out. Over to the market - Fund managers or fat cats wanting to dump, traders, speculators etc.