₦airaland Forum

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sky2891:
OANDO

Suit No: FHC/L/CP/494/2021

sky2891:
Please, what if this court case is not concluded on 10th October? Maybe adjourned after the 10th October court session till a later date.
How will the market possibly react?

Which case on 10th Oct?

DeRuggedProf:
Those who trade Oando are those who used this means of transport to school..

Nothing like school bus back then. I think they mostly trekked, some on bare foot.

That picture na bo le ka ja.

All eyes on OANDO
Na wah

This PRESCO forecast looks good. It will sustain current dividends payment comfortably with lots of change when it materializes in the 2023 audited end year report.
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/142_Presco_PLC_Fourth_Quarter_Forecast.pdf

BabsO2:
It's the growth aspect of stocks I like.

Buying PRESCO at N16 in 2008. Getting a 1 for 1 bonus bringing the effective entry price to N8 since initial purchase.
Collected dividend of N8.8 last year. And already collected another N6 this year. Finding and owning stocks that create value is really nice. They create money for an investor without the need of dumping losses on other investors.

Will banks continue to create value like they did in the last 10 years and sustain their dividend payments. ?
I think this depends on the trajectory of Nigeria's economy. If the economy grows it creates the opportunity for the banks to grow. And for banks invested in other African countries, if those countries grow it will help. But any pull backs could be devastating. Generally Africa should be a growth play as it is under-developed. But with bad leadership this growth may not materialize. That's an area to watch for the long term investor interested in value creation.
Apart from growth from the economy. Each bank will answer for mis-managements and excessive risk taking. One needs a close eye on management.

unite4real:
How do you expect an investor who took positions in UCAP and fidelity bank at around N2 few years ago to understand what you just said. The one in UCAP who is still holding will be getting nothing less than 75% dividend yield today and it will get to 100% the moment they started paying dividend of more than N2 per unit. To your tents O' Israel.

It's the growth aspect of stocks I like.

Buying PRESCO at N16 in 2008. Getting a 1 for 1 bonus bringing the effective entry price to N8 since initial purchase.
Collected dividend of N8.8 last year. And already collected another N6 this year. Finding and owning stocks that create value is really nice. They create money for an investor without the need of dumping losses on other investors.

mikeapollo:
It is painful. and I agree that the Oando management has not been very proactive in releasing and managing information about the company.
But something still tells me that something drastic could still happen that would favour Oando shareholders....like a die minute positive news!

A clear message from management that they do not want to pursue delisting but prefer to remain listed on the Stock Exchange pending minority voting will be a positive signal. But stuff like not wanting the scrutiny of issuing reports as required for listings sends a very negative message.

mikeapollo:
The Oando market is like what the Yoruba people call '' igbo o da ju'' ....... a thick scary forest that only the brave and bold can enter!

Many have entered OANDO in time past with the offers (Rights and PO). Some with serious Odaju (boldness) with their money. Management seem to have destroyed their funds and is not giving good information on progressive use of their funds.

Market Snapshot - OANDO
Comment: Unless a market maker or strategic buyer or new news (uplift breeze) comes up it's a free fall.

Market Snapshot - UBA
Comment: Near balance in bids versus demand volumes. With an upwards price push at the moment.

Market Snapshot - ACCESS
Comment: Dumping of shares ongoing. With light mop up. A resultant sharp price down at the moment.

OANDO
A key benefit of delisting is the freedom for the company to focus on investing for the long run without the pressures (& wranglings over poor/bad management) from some strong shareholders. The company also still needs a lot of funds (common shareholders may not be ready to foot this bill again) for the aggressive expansion it is embarking on and may not be able to deliver substantial profits in the short term. The delisting does not augur well for Shareholders who participated in all the various offers (rights & PO) at higher prices, injecting more valuable naira in years past, only to be given a highly devalued N7.07 Also the management does not seem to have used investor funds well (as inference from all the brouhaha) but is still somehow acquiring more strategic assets which can benefit shareholders on the long run if properly managed. Management need to be clear on the their position with respect to delisting. None clarity means delisting is likely. What is the position of top OANDO management with delisting ?

sky2891:
Copied:

*Summary*

*UBA*
PBT - N403.6B
PAT -. N378.2
EPS-. N10.96
CIPS- N23.43
Total OCI - N821.03
Interim Div - 0.50k

*GTCO*
PBT -. N327.3B
PAT -. N280.4B
EPS- N9.94
CIPS- N11.92
Total OCI -. N358.9B
Interim Div -N0.50K

*Zenith Bank Plc*
PBT - N350.3B
PAT -. N291.7B
EPS-. N9.29
CIPS- N15.73
Total OCI -. N494.09B
Interim Div- N0.50K

*Access Bank Plc*
PBT -. N167B
PAT -. N135B
EPS- N3.74
CIPS- N13.97
Total OCI -. N556.78B
Interim Div - N0.30k

Since it's the comprehensive income per share that usually ends up in shareholder funds, I added the CIPS - Comprehensive Income Per Share to the picture. This makes ACCESS Bank to still rank ahead of GT & Zenith from the perspective of rate of accumulations to individual shareholders from the fx revaluations of these banks. Thus I see no need for dumping of Access Shares. More of a HOLD, except one has other strategic plans.

customstreet:
• As OANDO Plc’s litigation hearing nears, (scheduled for October 10, 2023) it can be observed that investors interest is receding, as the stock traded about 60 million units today losing 9.89% in price, to close at NGN11.85.

For me, I still believe that there is nothing Wale Tinubu want to get on this delisting that he can not get. He has hunted the regulators down, more so that one of his own is now in power.

In a nutshell, I believe the delisting would still go ahead. Since most company getting delisted have alternatives trading their shares, I mean NASD. I am 70% sure that the company would be delisted. This is my own personal opinion

Aaaah.
A key benefit of delisting is the freedom for the company to focus on investing for the long run without the pressures (& wranglings over poor/bad management) from some strong shareholders to deliver substantial profits in the short term. This delisting does not augur well for Shareholders who participated in all the various offers (rights & PO) at higher prices, injecting more valuable naira in years past, only to be given a highly devalued N7.07

Frangel:
I totally agree with you. Herbert has significantly increased his indirect holdings in H1 through his offshore interest.

I will want to buy more if investors are generally dissatisfied with the low interim div and the price falls significantly lower.

It's a HOLD for me. Till signs of jump in interest income or Jump in Trade/Other income are reported. There is a high likelihood of the price dropping next week if no market maker (& or insider who know more) mops the shares dumped next week. I guess subsequent TA will give a good guess of what's up.

Frangel:
Fx gains was included to arrive at PAT (Notes 11+12).

My fear is they are expanding too fast (mostly inorganic). Could be catastrophic if not well managed. Anyway, the higher the risk the higher the gains, all things going well. Reason why I have some for the great future potentials.

Yes they have borrowed forex to use for expansion. I noted that earlier in this thread (several pages back). The load of the fx additional tier 1 capital will surely reduce fortunes of common Naira shareholders, especially if the growth they deployed the fx to is currently not yielding fx income. The tier 1 fx instrument holders will always get their returns first in fx before the common shareholders get the left over. And this will tend to reduce the earnings per share to shareholders till their fx assets start bearing fruit. However should their expansions bear good fruit in months and years ahead, common naira shareholders on NGX will reap bountifully. This reward may be round the corner or may be far off who knows? Since management have been acquiring shares perhaps it may not be far off.

lancee:
Access bank .. Ahead of uba now ..Is result coming soon

With respect to Access and even FBNH,

UBA closed higher at N17.45

Perhaps in readiness for dividend markdown next week.

onegentleguy:
On OANDO...

As I stated earlier, a price of N20--25 is feasible though not without "bumps" every now and then as the stock pricing looks to respect technicals.
Pricing of assets in the financial markets does not necessarily respect Newtons 1st law of motion.

Technically, trend remains positive across key time-frames. (DWM)

Week 25-29 will be key. As long as pricing reproduces a W&M candle close above the red line as indicated, the probability of a short term trend reversal would be near zero, so long term holders have nothing to worry about.

Next trading activity (Monday) will likely herald the "battle for survival" as buyers wait around that support zone of btw N10--11.
I'd love to see a bounce to btw N10.35--10.50 post rejection at the low band of support then... and from where it could witness a few days of consolidation before another push up to within and then above that N13.3--14.6 now resistant range.

A close at or above the green line as indicated (ref: N12.10) may result in a bit of hesitation on the part of sellers while buyers will need to markup their bargain next week.

It is well.

Similar read out with the TA from BullBearMkt.

In my own words:
High probability for target accumulations from dumpers may occur between 10-11. Depending on size of bid forces and offer forces that play in this range a fall further to about 8.4 possible or a rise to +13

BullBearMkt:
Let me attempt to answer your question with TA. IF TA is not your thing, kindly skip the post.

Attached is the monthly outlook of Zenith Bank stock chart. Here:
1. Sellers are located above 34.20 corresponding to the 5 year high
2. Price may either rise or fall. 50-50 chance! There are equal buying and selling pressures ongoing.
3. Both weekly and monthly structures remains bullish (good radiant)
4. Not expecting "great fall in price", but price potentially can fall below 32!
5. 28.50 - 31 is a good bargain at current price.

And for Oando please what does TA say

Willie2015:
Na to pick at N8 naira again
if it comes down to that level..
Ride again till N16....
No love for Oando....
Na for JIJO...

People are waiting for it at various points. Let's see how low it gets. It will likely resist sub N7 and some will rush it before it gets to N8 and prevent it from reaching that junction. Which one will play out. Over to the market - Fund managers or fat cats wanting to dump, traders, speculators etc.

ACCESS back ahead of UBA at close of business today with N17.20 versus N17.10 respectively.

UBA beat ACCESS in price for only 2 days.

Market waiting for audited Q2 results for Access.

Then the Oga will become clearer.

Chai. This Oando at this moment has only bids and no offers. Those who bought this year before the month of September are lucky. Either way they win. If Oando remains on the exchange their win will be extraordinary. Looks like the bus is not stopping to pick passengers. People are fighting to enter the moving the bus.

Chai. And the bus was parked for a long time. With the doors wide open with empty seats.

Streetinvestor2:
Oga I am old enough in naija to know when things are being arranged. I tell you the whole thing is set up by oando and its foreign partners hiding under few minority share holders. That is why they did not object the matter.
If I approach you for something I have made serious investment ,I will definitely present a figure and we may even reach agreement before you make it public. In this case oando is the one offering dubious figure so that you make noise/react so they give you small jara or find another way around it.How many minority shareholders requested this with the number of all minority shareholders. The article claim 14 They are ready to accept the request by this few but refused everything in the past by larger number of minority share holders. Did the larger minority shareholders approve all the stripping of oando asset.

I stand oando and its majority shareholders conceived the idea.The only thing that can stop it is if they are not bent on carrying it out or change of mind.You forget this guy wale sabi the law in criminal way.Thr is big prospect in the future for oando and that is why this criminals want to take it private. Naija is too corrupt. Do you remember adevo got to #24 but still they delisted at #19 plus
If they give room of refusal ,I will go private with them .

If they (The Fat OandO cats) conceived it as you say what is their benefit?. [I see lower short sighted benefits for them]

Why are they releasing good announcements instead of bad ones that will facilitate their quick buyout of all common stock holders?.

Why did they list in exchanges outside Nigeria ? [I think they did that out of a vision of making Oando a big concern]

Who are those that have been selling Oando below N7 ? [Most likely aggrieved shareholders fed up with the current management !!!]
From Jan-23 to Aug-23 12% of outstanding Oando Shares were sold at an average price of N5.27. In the first three weeks of this September, 8% of Oando Shares have been sold so far at an average price of N8.24

I think it is in the best interest of OandO major share holders to keep Oando on the local and international stock exchanges to compete with the likes of Seplat and even with the likes of the major International oil companies that they have bought their assets.

This is not a buy or sell recommendation. But my contribution.

Myhelper1:
You go explain tire...we still gonna buy!

Already spotted UBA and have been accumulating for a long time. That's not hidden on this thread. Just adding my views to the discussion on hand.

babaijesha:
FX revaluation gain and fair value gains on derivatives are the Koko for Q2 2023...
If you deduct FX revaluation gains of about NGN13bn...
And fair value gains on derivatives of about NGN348bn from
UBA’s Q2’23 PBT of about NGN344bn.
We should get a negative PBT for UBA Q2 23
This should apply to Gtco and Zenith too.
There is also probability of future adverse movements in FX rate...
We should be cautiously optimisitc.

The elevated Impairments charge need to also be put in the picture. Think they were prudently entered as precautionary provisions.

As I noted earlier 2023Q3 & Q4 data will tell us more. If net interest income stays at elevated levels as seen in 2023H1, it signals good assets. And if this net interest income stays at elevated levels in 2024Q's it will signal UBA is indeed operating at a higher level. Otherwise it signals red flags.

Also if global down turn starts, there is a possibility of Impairments in the Fx assets if they get impacted.

robobo:
really i dont understand how anyone that is holding this stock would sell it for less than 25 (half PBV)

Although it might look like the current performance would not be sustainable given that the major component ( revaluation) is one off but i beg to differ.

On a back of the envelope basis, my take is that UBA EPS going forward would sustain the upward of N8 per share going forward even without revaluation. The revaluation alone add over N800b to the bank asset which if invested in TB at average of 13% is over N100bn profit per year (without any cost) to the bank bottom line i.e. about 3.50 per share which if added to the normalised EPS (before revaluation) of about 4.5 per share would give about N8 per share going forward even without revaluation. Please note that this view goes beyond 2023 to as much as 3-4 years ahead (bar any major mishap from the management)

if 35% of the N8 per share is paid as dividend one would expect a dividend of at least N2.50 (both interim and final) which at N25 per share is a yield of at least 10%.

so i dont understand how any one would want to sell below N25, but to each mallam his kettle.

Selah

Going forward the EPS in Naira terms should be higher if the FX assets are working and not impaired. So if we do not see a step up in Q3 income streams it should suggest something is not right. If the income streams stay up from Q3, Q4 and 2024Q's then UBA has turned into a new beautiful chapter.

ProphetUtuocha:
With a H1 EPS of 10+, UBA is in a class by itself!

Comprehensive income per share which ends up in shareholder funds was even higher at N23.43 per share

UBA BVPS jumped from N 25.494 to N 48.58 (Dec 2022 vs Jun2023) !!

leparj:
Good one from uba.
Makes me feel a bit better not
loading Sugar.
Next up Access.

Suspect Access will try and match UBA in interim dividend.

But don't think Access will be able to match UBA in eps.

In the UBA Access race, I see UBA catching and overtaking Access.

This UBA is super outstanding. Look at how shareholder funds nearly doubled. Just remaining small to catch up with Zenith. That means UBA's African Branch Network must be substantial !