₦airaland Forum

emmanuelewumi:
We still have 3 more MPC meetings in 2022.

My base forecast is a hold on rates for the remaining 3.

What do you forecast ?

Mpeace:
Oil prices got to $90 today. Highest since 2014. Hmmmm

Coupled with the CBN monetary policy of not increasing interest rates there is hope NSE will not pull back this year.

onegentleguy:
Pls read through the post below...

No thanks to the policies of the Central Bank of Nigeria, the Nigerian fixed income market now operates in four segments – the NTB market, the bond market, the money market, and the OMO market. Each market has its different pattern and the direction of yields across these markets are not the same.

To start with, the local debt stock is about N35trn. Using an assumption of a 10% cost of debt, that’s like N3.50trn spent on servicing local debt. By the time you add external debts, the entire revenue generated by the FG is nearly gone (as we see in reality). Therefore, we should all be clear that for as long as this CBN is there and this administration is still in charge, we should abandon the idea of high yields. To avoid high cost of debts for the FG, the CBN will continue to implement policies to keep interest rates low.

It is for this reason that yields in the Nigerian treasury bills market and bonds market will not materially move past current levels. Yields in the NTBs market will likely be within 5% - 7% band in 2022. In the FGN bonds market, yields (on 10-year) would likely be within 12% - 14%.

Some would say that the estimated government expenditure and fiscal deficit could drive yields upwards. While this should be true in an ideal situation, that will not be the case in Nigeria. This is because the CBN has now gone deep in monetising the FG’s debts. And no, it is not exactly printing money for the FG (if it was, the inflationary pressure we have today will totally go out of hand). The question now is, ‘where does the CBN get the money to support FG excessive spending (a very terrible economic bad behaviour)’?
The answer is in the CRR deposits. On the surface, the CBN is telling the markets that it is pro-growth (they will harp on this again tomorrow after their meeting). Meanwhile, their unorthodox approaches have resulted in excessive CRR debits from banks’ deposits. They will take those monies from banks at 0% and lend to the FG at 9%. This transaction benefits both the FG and CBN (the CBN earns over 900bps spread, clean!).

Meanwhile the banks are the ones at the receiving end. These excessive CRR debits have resulted in liquidity crunch for banks. To stay afloat, banks have been offering high yields to shore up deposits. Mutual funds and even PFAs have been putting funds in bank placements. By implication, banks are faced with rising cost of funds. In summary, the money market yields are most likely going to be high in 2022. I see money market yields trading within the bands of 10% - 12%.

#Copied

MPC holds all policy parameters. Excellent outcome just read out live by CBN governor.

As the big banks meet next week, CBN should expedite approving their results.

emmanuelewumi:
They might i have to dip hands into their reserves in order to pay the dividend paid last year if their earnings cant support a final dividend of N2.70k.


Dividend cut is a red flag and the company will be futher punished by the market, i dont think GTB will want that

All things being equal last year's dividend with be retained by all means

Going by their YTD at Q3 they have EPS above N3 and a loss in Q4 is very unlikely. Hence they will not need to dip into reserves to pay a final Dividend of N2.7. The only issue is dividends are always subject to approval of CBN. I don't know how the CBN approval works. I know in past they have limited how much Dividend can be paid for various prudential reasons.

emmasoft:
They can only pay what their earnings support. If the earnings come out fine they will do as usual otherwise they have to stay within their earnings and more so the regulators are their to checkmate them.

Based on their Q3 results their EPS will likely drop from about N7 to about N5 in 2021 full year. Even if it drops to N4 will CBN stop them from paying total dividend of N3. As the drop is most most likely temporary.

emmanuelewumi:
Foreign Investors and pension fund managers

Interesting. Foreign investors have left many Nigerian banks. If they are pulling out much from GTCO for now, it will pull the price down significantly.

One was able to see percent holdings of foreign investors on FT website freely before. Where can one see such info freely this days ?.

Zegra:
Yes

Interesting. More than a decade ago.

dharpzee:
,

Guessing between, 10k or 20k dividend

If they pay up to 10k that will be great. They like 1k to 3k dividends

Based on Transcorp Q1, Q2 and Q3 results that showed increased income to shareholders I estimate the following full year numbers for Transcorp for full year 2021

Total comprehensive income of N 17.5 billion
That attributed to Shareholders = N 9.3 b
That to Non Controlling Interest = N 8.2 b
Giving EPS for Shareholders of 23 Kobo. How much of this will be paid to Shareholders as dividend is a big question and will contribute to determining if the price will continue to go up or fall back.

Not extraordinarily strong results. But positive change in direction.

Valueinvestor:
My brother Gain is gain, 10% of 100k is 10k, 10% of 100M is 10M, depends on what you're looking at. Am Just happy for those in the bus

I pray they start paying a sizeable and increasing dividends as a policy. That is the only way to grow (The GTB and ZENITH way)

I pray Transcorp gives at least 5 kobo dividend this year if not 10 kobo.

The only way they can grow is to have a good dividend policy of about 50% of shareholder earnings to be paid as dividends yearly.

kolaish:
for loco & others who are interested

Best Penny Stocks to Buy in Nigeria in 2022 - Buy Transcorp Shares Now


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ib1SLsfRjyY&list=LL&index=1&t=151s

Excellent video analysis.

wanaj0:
Otedola did not buy at 8-9 Naira. He bought at a much higher price I think

FBN is currently over priced though.

Eku market o

FBNH is currently under priced. It's only relatively over priced when compared to the other massively under priced bank stocks.

DeRuggedProf:
https://www.proshareng.com/news/People/Governance-Issues-in-FBNH--Remi-Babalola/60507

The governance issues more than what he can handle. Okay o.

DeRuggedProf:
We go borrow money equivalent or more to our investment in a once powerful, but now feeble animal and invest in a chromatographic sibling. This means we have two investments with the same cash.
Pump the feeble animal to look healthy, sell parts at bubbled prices, then offset our debts. Las las, na late comers go technically pay our debts .

Interesting scenario. Can see many potential permutations (scenarios). Will be interesting to see which one will play out (especially the bubble) to profit the watchful ones in the bus.

BabsO2:
He raced on to accumulate more aggressively despite the apparently bad audited Q3 bottom line incomes. Singlehandedly pushing the price up against the sell pressure from some shareholders.

What is pushing Ote$, is it in the interest of common shareholders And or what is he seeing that those selling are not seeing

https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2021/12/16/otedola-i-have-no-interest-in-holding-any-board-position-in-fbn-holdings-first-bank/

Ote$ says he is simply taking position in FBNH that he sees as a very good investment. Interesting.

yMcy56:
FBNH
200M additional units @11.52 Av. Price.
Whosoever have Ote$'s number should tell him to come see his fan oh.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/65_Notification_of_Insider_Dealing_-_Mr._Otedola.pdf

He raced on to accumulate more aggressively despite the apparently bad audited Q3 bottom line incomes. Singlehandedly pushing the price up against the sell pressure from some shareholders.

What is pushing Ote$, is it in the interest of common shareholders And or what is he seeing that those selling are not seeing

PETERiCHY:
SHARPEN your CUTLASS for SANTA CLAUS RALLY

Venue = NSE

Date = 23rd & 24th Dec 2021

Time = 9.30am to 12pm

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

And fat Santa Claus 1 (or 2) sales is expected in the next six trading days on a few stocks. Get your money ready to buy with very short notice of the sale event.

Is Ote$$ still mopping FBNH

emmanuelewumi:
Better to chill and buy on the floor

MTN has a P/B of 18.3. Oops original promoters of MTN must be making and taking a hefty profit. The PE of 12x and DY of 6.3% not too attractive in the current market.

emmanuelewumi:
It is an offer for sale

Fingers crossed will MTN fall below the offer for sale price tomorrow.

Why is MTN prize not frozen on NSE like other PO's of the past ? It closed today at N169.2 That is 20k above PO price.

This means if one buys more than 5000 shares the accruing bonus shares will be limited tp only 250. What is the reasoning behind this limit ?. It should just simply be 1 for 20 no matter what quantity is bought.

klas:
MTN retail offer price is N169

Offer opens 1st December, closes 14th December

Minimum subscription is 20 shares and additional in multiples of 20.

There will be a bonus of 1 share for every 20 purchased, subject to maximum of 250 bonus shares provided you retain your purchased shares for one full year before selling.

faoogoke:
Must have foreseen NGX GROUP going to around N11 and hovering around that price range for a long while.

Meanwhile, I am also waiting.

He is not done offloading.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/236_Share_dealing_Notification_-_Mr._Faruk_Umar_Indirect_Holding.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/236_Share_dealing_Notification_-_Mr._Faruk_Umar_Direct_Holding.pdf

.

emmanuelewumi:
The man is all over with Investments in about 90 companies on NGX and a number of private companies


He was a director at Union Homes with about 100 million units of shares, learnt he used the proceeds from Union Homes to buy apartments at 1004 Estate at about N12 million per unit

Knowing when to sell and leave a lower margin (lower reward) opportunity for a higher margin (higher reward) one spotted is the way to grow fortunes faster.

Sometimes the higher reward opportunities are glaring (often not available to everyone and sometimes available to those who look well). While many get complacent with their investments and hardly reassess if they are still worth holding in the face of better opportunities out there.

OBAGADAFFI:
Can someone explain what is meant here.
Since MTN shares are already listed on the NSE, is there any need for this



MTN Group Limited has announced plans to offer for sale, the shares of its Nigerian subsidiary, MTN Nigeria Communications Plc.

The Group has disclosed its intention to proceed with a public offer for sale of 575 million shares in MTN Nigeria.

Taking some further profits. Perhaps for use in new greenfield (higher margin) ventures in other countries.

emmanuelewumi:
Dr Faruk Umar na smart Investor with PhD in Educational Psychology. He also understands Investment and money psychology.

A popular stock market activist from Kano.

Remember when he sold 70 million units of his Union Homes Savings and Loans share for N6.00 many years ago, the rest is history.

Interesting. BIG jijo. That must have been a very fat loot with Union Homes Savings and Loans. And a small loot this time on NGX

sonofElElyon:
Yes but for how long? I'm in the bus.. seems driver and all passengers "no know road yet"

Driver dey do like danfo driver wey dey move forward small small like him one go. Then after a while reverse small as him never ready to go. Some passengers will rush in with the small small move forward thinking the bus is about to take off. Some will later get impatient and get down as they perceive the driver is not ready to take-off and other passengers take their seat.

Looks like N1.0 may be the new low resistance for Now.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/236_Share_Dealing_Notification_-_Sale_of_Shares_by_Faruk_Umar.pdf

Non executive NGX director sells 800,000 units at N20

Transcorp resisted falling below N1.0 today. It instead bounced back from the N1.0 post Q3 low of yesterday.