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Calebbold's Posts

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InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold: 7:32pm On Jan 28, 2020
millennium2012:
An impressive Result from CAP:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/28676_CAP_PLC_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JANUARY_2020.pdf

No wonder the recent PA.
Which kind of impressive result? The result is just neutral to say the least...

2018 EPS is 2.90 while 2019 EPS is 2.55..
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold: 12:53pm On Jan 08, 2020
FBNH 10% shocked shocked
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold: 12:04pm On Jan 08, 2020
Ewoo shocked shocked.. FIDELITY BANK 10% already!!!!
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold: 6:04pm On Dec 23, 2019
monopolistic:
Hi everyone Any stock to watchout for 2020?

Thanks
WAPCO AND UACN
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold: 2:06pm On Dec 02, 2019
pluto09:
I will not be surprised if our in-house analyst attack proshare as an enemy of fcmb who want the price to fall so they can buy for themselves at a cheaper price cool
grin grin grin...The in-house analyst's that have already sold...

Where do you think those over 13m sold shares came from?

You can also notice the long queue to buy Fidelity shares.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold: 11:49am On Dec 02, 2019
locodemy:
The strength lies on fidelity for now.
If fcmb must close the gap today, Fidelity has to adjust in price let's say 2.15.

But the tension is no more.Market continues.
Mr Loco...are you sure you have not sold?...lolll
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold: 7:37pm On Nov 29, 2019
RabbiDoracle:
Do you remember when companies release good results, stocks fall massively? Now the reverse is the case grin

As they churn out bad results, the stock will even be doing 10%. See Jaiz, Unity going very high. grin

Unity has not paid Dividends for many years o, yet it is gaining 10%. It has negative SHF, yet people still dey buy am grin

Do you want to tell me that people have not peeped the result since? Are you saying they just saw the result today? grin yet the stock did not crash land since.

Buputa ibu gi.... grin
Exactly!!!
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold: 6:15pm On Nov 29, 2019
rebekah2011:
I agree Sir. But with Oga Loco deciding to sell, I cannot guarantee that it will go north oooo
Lollll grin grin grin... I know oga loco is big but he cannot be bigger than the 'MM'.

I absolutely believe FCMB wouldn't trail too far behind FIDELITY.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold: 6:01pm On Nov 29, 2019
rebekah2011:
Oga Loco's exit will create a PANIC in the market. Imagine 1b units trying to exit FCMB on Monday. I suspect we are going to have a bear Monday
I would advice everyone with FCMB shares to watch the direction of the price carefully on Monday before deciding whether to hold/sell.

In q3 2017, FCMB declared a PAT of about 5.5b but yet the price rose till about 3.50 naira. But in this case, the PAT is even better.

So do not rush in taking any decision.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold:
pluto09:
The result is only good to be released on friday grin
A very disappointing one but I expect them to manage the price well, it is their way and they've got a very strong and active MM.
Exactly!! I wouldn't be surprised if the price move up by Monday.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold: 7:09pm On Nov 21, 2019
mendes911:
What if the tap doesn't have up to one bucket of water from the source? Will 3 still get full? grin
grin grin...All things been equal..
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold: 7:02pm On Nov 21, 2019
onegentleguy:
Wrong answer, pls try again !! wink cheesy grin
Now, I got it...bucket 3
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold:
.....
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold: 2:52pm On Nov 08, 2019
Coolcash1:
Abi o e.g. Caverton and WAPCO..... grin
Lol...I no just know who dey sell/buy WAPCO at 14.0 wey no allow the price move...

Although e close higher today sha...let's see how next week go be.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold: 7:58am On Nov 08, 2019
phemmie06:
CardinalStone Research,

CCNN and Obu Cement merger update: Excerpts from the scheme of merger

Cement Company of Northern Nigeria (CCNN) and Obu Cement Company Plc (Obu) have released a scheme of merger document for their impending business combination.

According to the document, Obu’s 40 million ordinary shares of 50 kobo each will be reconstructed to 20.7 billion shares of 50 kobo each of the enlarged entity. This represents a 1 for 518 share conversion ratio. On the other hand, CCNN’s shareholders will be accorded 1 share of the enlarged entity for each CCNN share owned. Thus, the outstanding shares of the enlarged entity would comprise the 13.1 billion ordinary CCNN shares currently available and the potentially reconstructed N20.7 billion new shares in favour of the 40 million ordinary shares of Obu. The implied 33.9 billion shares of the enlarged entity would be 61.2% owned by shareholders of Obu and 38.8% owned by shareholders of CCNN. On adjusting to reflect BUA Group’s 87.4% stake in CCNN, minority stake in the proposed entity is likely to be closer to 11.0% (3.7 billion shares).

Valuation of current CCNN shares.

Going by the scheme document, the total value of shares to be issued for the 13.1 billion shares owned by the scheme shareholders (i.e. CCNN shareholders) is N460.0 billion. This implies that the transaction values CCNN at N35.11 per share, compared to its current market price of N16.40 and our FY’19E BVPS of N25.81. The valuation is also at a significant premium to our 12-month target price of N12.97—which does not capture the proposed addition of the 3.0mtpa Kalambaina line 2.

Based on the provided proforma, the enlarged entity would have had ROE and ROA of 15.3% and 10.9% respectively in FY’18 compared to 1.7% and 1.6% respectively for CCNN. Although the estimated ROE and ROA of the proposed entity are biased by a N26.8 billion tax credit, they would still have approximated 9.0% and 6.3% respectively.

Other key information.
1. The enlarged entity would have an 8.0mtpa cement capacity, comprising CCNN’s 2mtpa capacity and Obu’s 6mtpa plant in Okpella, Edo state. This compares to Lafarge Nigeria’s 10.5mtpa installed capacity
2. If approved, the merger will see Obu absorb all CCNN’s assets, liabilities, and undertakings
3. The deal will also lead to the delisting of CCNN from the Nigerian Stock Exchange and listing of the enlarged entity on 8 January 2020
4. This deal is strictly a share for share transaction. No cash consideration is involved
5. This transaction is subject to the approval of shareholders and court sanction.

https://trwstockbrokers./2019/11/07/company-update-ccnn-and-obu-cement-merger-update-excerpts-from-the-scheme-of-merger/
If I understand correctly, the installed capacity of CCNN after merger would be 8.0mtpa, while the current installed capacity of WAPCO is 10.5mtpa

Wapco outstanding shares: 16.11B

CCNN outstanding shares after merger: 33.9B

In my opinion, CCNN is trying to rip off their minority shareholders.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold:
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold: 9:31am On Oct 28, 2019
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold: 9:34pm On Oct 21, 2019
Mpeace:
The way WAPCO dey fall these days eh. I just weak
https://thenationonlineng.net/sec-probes-lafarge-africa-over-alleged-abuses/amp/

This could be the reason
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold: 4:31pm On Oct 18, 2019
aremso:
Words of consolation all the time!
I think oracle is right; he is actually speaking from experience. Q3 result would gradually be released from next week.. market would gradually become stable as heavy pockets key into sound stocks of their choice in expectation of FY result.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold: 8:29pm On Sep 27, 2019
DOLLARTEX:
did you factor border closure?the impact might be massive.
Hmmm...I doubt it would be that massive. As at 2018, wapco only export to Ghana...
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold: 6:49pm On Sep 27, 2019
maishai:
18+ months of averaging down and I just kissed breakeven point in my journey @ Wapco..... In retrospect this was a stock begging people @ #10 earlier this year......... I still have a holding period of another 24 months....... I feel this year being an election year did not favor heavy weight producers..............Lots of bonds are being entered into by this govt and majority of this cash will go into infrastructure......ccecc is giving Julius Berger(heavily here too) big head ache but both have cement producer as customers........Also majority of normal construction works were paused to see the outcome of the elections........also great timing for wapco to use in clearing their books



My target is #44 after all some investors majorly foreign bought at this price




Any news on the progress of the new plant construction @ Ashaka........


This steady but subtle increase in price of wapco get as e be o........
Wapco would likely be the stock of the year in terms of % price increase.... already doing 33% with the current price.

I just hope Q3 doesn't disappoint.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold: 8:55am On Sep 19, 2019
leo1234:
I received UBA dividend despite not having a single unit at the beginning of the year. It seems selling all your shares does not actually prevent you from receiving dividend when you buy back.
Yep...you are right...had similar experience with cardinalstone registrar. I think once u have been mandated electronically by a certain registrar, your details remains with them permanently.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold: 10:29am On Sep 16, 2019
Agbalowomeri:
Oracle I think you win grin
Chairman...u don raise white flag? grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold: 3:08am On Sep 06, 2019
Mcy56:
Guess you referred to the payment period.
Yes...
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold: 8:24pm On Sep 05, 2019
Topson88:
Sorry in advance to those my question will irritate....please how many times does zenith pay dividend in a year? Thanks
Twice in a year

1) Between march/April
2) August/September
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold: 2:42pm On Sep 02, 2019
bigjay01:
Biko nu oo

O gini na-eme na UACN?

This one appears to be beyond the current bearish investment climate in the country
This stock be won frustrate me... Move e no gree move...I don leave them though at a loss...but no shaking...we go still make am up before year end in other good stocks.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold: 4:33pm On Aug 28, 2019
Mcy56:
Agba, I think this new acquisition is going to increase their stake from 74.02% and not just 500k.
If they can buy at 66.25/share and own such high stake, with time FO price might be more than double of the currentprice cos they're out to make profit as well.
Just trying to get a picture of the whole thing.

"Ignite Investments holds 970,166,694 Ordinary Shares representing 74.02% equity stake in Forte Oil as at 24 June 2019. Ignite Investments hereby offers to purchase, subject to the terms and conditions described herein, all or part of such Qualifying Shareholder's registered holding of Ordinary Shares (as registered to such Qualifying Shareholder in the Register of Members of Forte Oil on the Qualification Date) subject to the following:
They are increasing their stake from 74.02% to 74.06%... that's why they require only 500k extra shares
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold: 3:53pm On Aug 28, 2019
The reason why FORTE OIL price closed higher today...

Take over bid of 500,000 extra shares at N66

https://www.proshareng.com/news/Stock---Analyst-Updates/Forte-Oil-Plc-Releases-Document-On-Take-/46804
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold: 2:35pm On Aug 28, 2019
Agbalowomeri:
Wapco very good for medium to long term grin
You don dey come small small ... From long-term now it's medium to long-term... Maybe by next week u go switch to short term grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold: 7:34pm On Jul 30, 2019
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Calebbold: 7:59pm On Jul 26, 2019
Bomboclad:
The 75% increase in EPS is based on the effect of 1Q PAT which went up 170% from 2018. QOQ PAT increase for 2Q is actually 37%, of which i expected 50% or more.

In toto, Caverton is a high flyer, just not sure why their stock price is a dullard!
You shouldn't expect Q2 PAT to equal that of Q1. The high PAT for Q1 was as a result of the increase revenue made from the 2019 election campaign. If you recall, their services were in high demand.

Infact, check their revenue from when the electoral campaign started(Q3 2018) till after the general election (Q1 2019). There was huge increase in their revenue which inturn translated to higher PAT.

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