₦airaland Forum

socialmediaman:
This election looks like it will end up in a run-off election between Peter Obi and Atiku.

If Peter Obi can hold his lead in the SE and SS, and maintains his momentum in Lagos and NC states, while Tinubu holds most of the SW states, then none of the 3 presidential candidates will meet the 2/3rd majority requirement, and there will be a run-off most likely between Peter Obi and Atiku

Peter Obi is not in the equation. His supporters are the loudest but they are the smallest of the top 3. People talk emotionall but 99% of the obidients have never looked at the stats, the demographics, the figures and the distribution of the electorate across Nigeria. If you do you will know Obi cant even come third!!!

Ask yourself, who are the Obidients identify and profile them, then look at the stats/demographics (they are freely available) and you will come to the only unbiased conclusion...he cant possibly even come 2nd!

let me help you: Obidients are largely the educated graduates/hnd etc and ibos. how many are they
total number of graduates in Nigeria is less than 10million all adults and with pvcs
total number of ibos (children and adults) is 35million

assuming ALL graduates and ALL ibos are obidient, at 45m total, they are less than 25% of the population of 200m. In reality not all graduates are obidient and not all ibos can vote. Let us even assume 50% of all graduates vote for him and 90% of the ibos who are of voting age vote for him, if you extrapolate this to the registered voters, his total expected votes in the election will be somewhere between 10% and 20% maximum

naptu2:
Dr Hakeem Baba-Ahmed is the spokesman of the Northern Elders Forum. He is from the famous Baba-Ahmed Family, which includes the late media giant Khalifa Baba-Ahmed and the former broadcaster, Hauwa Baba-Ahmed (now Hauwa Shuaibu-Galma). He is a former permanent secretary and chief of staff to the Senate President and he is also a columnist. He is also the elder brother of the Labour Party vice presidential candidate, Dr Datti Baba-Ahmed.

wait wait wait, so this man is supposed to screen his brother?

Sanusi is a blue blood, Ivy League educated fella. He is looking at this riff raff trader who has tried to white wash his cv and educational qualifications by listing seminars at Harvard Cambridge etc and thinking who do you think you are talking too, I am not your brain dead suppporters or journalists….“what a slowpoke”!!!’

the guy had wickedness in his eyes. Seriously, there are some people you just have a bad feel about just by looking at them

IntelChief:
My elder sister is around 32 years and still not serious with marriage. Her only focus is on making money and she had been very successful in that aspect. She has a well paying job and is not only comfortable but also supports me financially sometimes.

But I just can't imagine why she is not disturbed about the fact that she is still single at her age. A lot of guys I know had been approaching her but she never accepts even a relationship offer from them, talk more of marriage. (And am very sure that she is not a lesbian or any of that).

As a church guy, I have seen a lot of women stock in this not being married thing and jumping from one church to the other seeking for husbands. Some of them, out of desperation, fall victims in the hands of fake pastors and sharp guys. I really don't want my sister to go through such.

Initially, I wasn't disturbed, but right now, this issue is burning not only me but also my aging mother. My mother had even stylishly urged my sister to go get married on several occasions. But she won't.

What really got me mad was when I was discussing with my sister some days back about her future plans. She told me stuffs like planning on travelling abroad for greener pastures, bla bla bla, but made no mention of marriage.

Honestly guys, I am tired. And as a man in the family, I am thinking of changing it for my sister. Am planning on threatening her that if she doesn't take the issue of marriage serious, I will go physical with her and teach her some lessons. But the issue is that she is my elder sister and I have some respect for her. And my action might end up affecting the bond in the family.

Oga no be woman dey marry man, na man dey marry wife. Focus on your own life so you are not dependent on your sister. !!

"As a man in the family" you are being supported by your sister and you have the gall to write this nonsense....what is wrong with the men of today? shame no catch you?

The man is a buffoon. How can anyone who understands economics and the demands of a developing economy say keep the money and don’t do anything. Does he not understand the concept of time value of money? The interest you earn in th bank is less than inflation so you are losing wealth by keeping money in the bank.

The road you need to build but don’t build and instead keep money in the bank will cost you a lot more when you finally build it and you will have to build that roads one day if you want development.

Seriously this man has no clue at all at all!!!

Pierce008:
More than sorry for him. This useless administration has destroyed everything beyond immediate repair. I can't even point to one substantial thing, this administration has done that is beneficial to the average Nigerian. At the end of the day, no single remorse.

I can speak for the SW
Lagos Ibadan rail, Lagos Ibadan express way, Ibadan to Ilorin express, Apapa oworo express, Siemens power deal, increase in power generation from 8000mw to 13000mw ( note: one trader still thinks generation is still 4000)
Rice production (Nigeria is now self sufficient) among others. However most important is the electoral reform that means it is harder to rig elections such that ApC lost Osun and a certain trader has a chance of becoming president if he can produce enough votes.


I never voted for Buhari but when it comes to infrastructure, he has no equal since 1999.

He has many failings but Give the man his dues.

Vibekiller:
I still have strong hope on PO.

Start to wind down the hope, remove emotion and start to do arithmetic. He cannot win 25% in 24 states. By that metric alone he is doomed.

You thought he had crowd, now you are seeing crowd from both Apc and PDP. I told people countless times the minute Obi left PDP and joined Labour he handed the race to Tinubu. You cannot split an opposition that was less than the majority to start with and expect to catch the majority party. Does that make sense to anybody? You start with 11m votes, ApC had 15m, you split your votes into 6m/5m or 7m/4m. Even if apc lose 3m you can’t catch them. Election is not emotion, election is arithmetic!!!!!

A

If you want to understand Nigeria, understand that it took only 6 years for the good system the British left behind to crumble and yet 56 years after we’ve not been able to right the ship. Not our grandfathers, their children or their grandchildren. That system that worked was not designed by us, we destroyed it! We have not been able in 56 yrs, design a system that works….to me it speaks volumes about Nigerians!!! It says as a collective, we are destroyers and we lack capacity to design a working system! 62 years of history says so!!!’n

Federalism, autonomy, resource control, right to referendum all existed before some people seized power in 1966, thought they would rule forever and removed them all…..they are the same people who on the one hand have tried to bring the country down for the last 8 years fighting g for secession, on the other hand fighting g for the return of these same things which they removed while blaming others and at the same time trying g to manipulate the naive and the gullible to support their tribal agenda packaged as a reformist Obidient agenda. Anyone with a brain will know the problem with Nigeria are Nigerians!!!!

Even the Poorly conceived Obidient movement of the strange bedfellows that are endsars and IPOB that rallied round a man who only left PDP when he couldn’t get their ticket befuddles the mind and hence it’s no surprise they are already crumbling. Showing their bigotry by announcing Ibo state coordinators for Lagos and Sokoto, announcing a spokesman for the Army that they say killed protesters to key position. Consulting with the likes of Obasanjo, danjuma, babangida the same old guard that are the heart of our problems since 1966 but more importantly fighting g amongst themselves on the basis of tribe and who occupys what position before they even get to power.


And yet they claim they want change!!!


Jokers!!!!!

casualobserver:
This building cannot be built with 2b

Like I said. See below

That’s more believable

Rexnegro:
Nice but 2B is kinda much

This building cannot be built with 2b

She is a well known supporter of Biafra but supporting Obi. Go figure!

Obiworld2020:
Can 1 million take me to any meaningful country for hustling aside from African country!!!!

Even ticket is more than 1m

We have been saying it that the guy is a quack. And an opportunist no different from the rest.

He is the worst person the endsars could have picked to spearhead change. He neither has the character, track record or vision to be the figure head for change. He Carrie’s his bag….so what? The irony of Obi and endsars (and I say this for the umpteenth time) is that it was Peter Obi that made SARS what they became. The irony seems lost on the endsars generation. He is the one who gave Anambra SARS the backing to kill with impunity and that’s where it all began!!! The Ibos I can understand, they just want an Ibo president the others are just naive!!!!

He is simply Obidient to his IPOB master

Threesha:
I would not recommend a young lady building with the man. My younger sister built a house with the man only for the man to impregnate another lady outside.

The problem with a lot of people is they enter relationships with their eyes closed and. Then project their experience on all men or women. I always had a rule with girlfriends.

For instance when I was still single, If you are a child of a single mother, or your parents are separated or divorced, I can’t marry you. So if we are doing anything it’s not serious!! Why because that is your frame of reference. My parents were together, which mouth will I say my marriage did not work? But you that are from a broken home you can easily go back and say it didn’t work!

Children from a broken home, children of violent homes or single parents usually repeat the cycle much as they don’t want to…..why? Because that is what they know they have no experience of a stable home and what it took to keep a stable home, they don’t know otherwise.

The problem is people enter relationships with the wrong criteria e.g “he makes me feel good”. “ He buys me things”, “he makes me feel special”. Those are not the things you look for when choosing a lifetime partnership!

Let me r reveal the secret of finding a successful man to you women. It all depends on you and your ability to rank yourself without delusions. Note ranking is not exclusively about beauty, your pedigree social status education values etc play into it. There is a difference being attractive to a man for sex and attracting a man as a potential wife…..many women don’t get this. They confuse sexual attention for true attraction.

If you are a high ranking lady, the more you are able to attract a man who is already successful as a life partner. The lower your ranking the more you have to hook a man before he becomes successful!!! If you wait for him to be successful he may not come for your type but if you already hooked him before he became successful, he will value you because you are part of his journey to success.

Either way the woman who came after success always has less value In the eyes of a man. My advice to women either way irrespective of your ranking is to get picked by a good man with ambition that matches yours BEFORE he becomes successful!! Instead of always talking about BBN, Davido and Burna boy ask about hiss goals in life. Note I said “good” man! If you don’t know what makes a good man, you are probably not the kind of woman he will be attracted to as a life partner. The risk you take is that he may not make it, it is your job to make sure he does!!! A good man will always value a woman who was part of his journey to success!!!

Two things to understand about successful men is that 1) they have options 2)they know a woman who is an asset and one who is a liability. There is a long queue of women waiting to take your place. So if you marry a ready made man, you lose some leverage In the relationship, whereas when you build with a good man, he will always attributes his success to you and your support so he doesn’t mess with you….like I said if you marry a “good” man. You will always hear tales of woes but it’s not just about marrying a man before he makes it. But marrying a good man before he makes it.

In terms of recognizing a good man, observe his sense of loyalty to those around him, how he treats people, how his father treated his mother, are they together? Many people don’t realize how important this is. Examples are set in the home, every relationship has problems, if the parents did not walk out, the child has no example to use in taking the easy way out….it is also why I warn people to run from children of single mothers, run from children whose siblings have different surnames!!!! Not all successful men are “good” men!

There is a song by King sunny Ade that’s says “ You cannot be annoyed at a child who resembles his father” always investigate the home a person come from before you join together with someone in marriage. No home is perfect but there are certain things you walk away from, no ifs buts or maybes because it will come back to haunt you.

garfield1:
Atiku lost sokoto to buhari by 140,000 votes.he won 4 out of 23 lgas.pdp won one senate and two reps

I have corrected myself

What are they divided over, educated people mousers of the future are divided over obeying court order?

dadabashua1:
yes the state is always almost evenly shared between the two parties.

Ps: I commend you for looking at the figure before you talk and backing your posts with facts. Most of the people on Nairaland just post emotionally and never ever looked at the figures!

You are my kind of guy!

dadabashua1:
not true,Buhari won sokoto not Atiku pls

You are right I got it mixed up, I was just discussing sokoto the other day and I guess what register in my head was that the margin in sokoto wasn’t that great hence sokotonwasnt that important for Tinubu

See my post below:

casualobserver:
What was Sokoto’s net contribution to The APC victory in 2019? Of the over 4m NET votes by which Buhari defeated Atiku in 2019, Sokoto contributed 130k net i.e 3.2%…and less than Kwara! Of the 15 million total votes APC got, Sokoto contributed 490k again about 3%….less than Yobe!!

Contrast those figures with Katsina, Kebbi Yobe and Borno and you will understand it is not a big deal. I will use Borno ,Kebbi, Yobe and Katsina as examples in the following format:
Net votes for APC in the state in 2019, net votes as a % of total margin of victory, total votes in state for APC, total votes as a percentage of total national votes for APC

Katsina: 920k, 23%, 1.2m 8%
Borno 765k, 19%, 836k, 5.5%
Kebbi 427k, 11%, 581k, 3.8%
Sokoto 130k, 3.2% 490k, 3%
Yobe 440k, 11%, 498k, 3%


If you compare these figures you will come to a few conclusions

1) 64% of Buhari’s 4m “NET votes” or margin of victory came from katsina, Borno, Yobe and Kebbi!! For those who do not understand, you win an election not by the number of votes you get but by the number of votes you get over your opponent! That is what is referred to as margin of victory or NET votes. Of the 4 million NET votes by which he defeated Atiku, these 4 states alone contributed approximately 2.7m! Don’t forget I am referring to NET votes!.

2) Sokoto and Yobe contributed similar number of absolute votes 490k v 497k but the Sokoto vote is not a very efficient vote because it is a split state and only contributed
3.2% to his margin of victory whereas Yobe contributed 11%. A vote in Yobe is 3.5 times more powerful, it does 3.5 times more damage than the sokoto vote! Despite being a much smaller state with less voters , a state like Yobe does 3.5 times more damage than a state like sokoto!! That’s the power of having total domination of a state and not sharing votes with opposition!!!

Elections are not about how many votes you have but about how many MORE votes you have over your opponent. Sokoto and Yobe illustrate this perfectly!! BUhari got the same number of votes in both Yobe and Sokoto but because they shared Sokoto voters but dominated Yobe, Sokoto only contributed 130k votes while Yobe a smaller state with less voters contributed 440k almost 3 times. This is why I keep saying the effect of Peter Obi in this race is is as a spoiler to PDP because all he is doing is splitting PDP votes while leaving core APC dominated states intact!!!!

So when talking about defections and figures you must also understand what they mean. While Sokoto is important (every vote is) importance in elections is relative. Sokoto is not that important for APC!!!

ZeroAccess:
Am not against anybody voting for tinubu, am only against the greed nature of the man. if you want to still vote him, ensure you are eating directly from him. Just like Keyamo who once sued him but now singing his praises.

However, if you want to vote tinubu based on tribe or religion take note of this point.

1. Are you voting a man who introduced thuggery in today's Nigeria politics that held down the state till date thug cause havoc everywhere.

2. Are you voting a man who introduced vote buying in today's Nigeria politics, that even inec have been crying over it and it's difficult to stop.

3. Are you voting a man who introduced life Pension for ex govs, there by making other state to emulate he's greedy nature.

4. Are you voting a man who through his greedy nature made his wife a senator, daughter head of all markets and son The direction of signage. What a greed of just one man.

5. are you voting a man who brought the calamity that we are all suffering just because of his selfish agenda. He doesn't care who dies or not, so far he will achieve his aim. That they are even ashamed to campaign with APC they brought, rather saying he built Lagos, without a single bridge to his name.

6. Are you voting a man who since our 1999 he's the only person that have ruled as a gov, that have ensure he select he becomes who in the state. Even obj, Jonathan don't have such greed even as ex president.

Vote wisely, because this man greedy nature will forever hold Nigeria into captive.

EOD#

Tinubu did not introduce thugs or vote buying. Thugs always existed in Nigerian politics from the days of Awo. People like Adelabu were powerful because they controlled transport workers aka thugs in Ibadan. The NURTW or it’s predecessors have always controlled elections in the SW especially in Ibadan.

Excuse me PDP were the ones who normalized vote buying into our politics. Using state funds for politics has always been part of. A Nigerian politics. Even the saints like Awo and Bola Ige did it. Many of the people Buhari locked up in 1984 like Bola ige was because they used state money to fund parties.

Anenih made his wife women leader and his son tried to contest. How many Kennedy held office in the US, 2 members of the bush family became president. Shagari son was deputy gov of sokoto, awolowo son was house of rep member in Lagos Ojukwu wife no hold office? I can go on and on.

3 all this effort against Tinubu, Not a single sentence about what your candidate offers!!!


Face your lane and sell your candidate if you actually have anything you can sell other than it being a part Ibo part IPOB agenda!!!

general111:
Tinubu to wim sokoto
Bunch of jokers

Tinubu and Atiku will share Sokoto, Atiku will win…he won sokoto last time, . The Ibo man coordinating for Peter Obi will coordinate Ibo votes and they will not get 25% constitutional requirement.

She should never have been given the award in the 1st place, there are people more deserving.

Disgrace of a daughter! From what I hear of her father he will be rolling in his grave!!

Them never even enter govt things are already falling apart.

campaign director lagos-....ibo, campaign director Sokoto .....ibo

FreeStuffsNG:
Even the person he appointed to coordinate his campaign in Lagos is from his tribe and probably one of those MC Oluomo suggested where the ipob members behind the coordinated arson in Lagos

Same with Sokoto!

budaatum:
I'll spray that new grass with Gamalin20 so their cattle love it more!

They will still sell the dead cows meat and you or nsomeone you know will eat it. Leave wickedness for the wicked!

HarlequinLekex:
Is lobster a food?

No it’s a campaign poster

ILEMUDA:
Breakdown of 2023 General Election

~North West Region
[b]Now The Decider of 2023 General Election (North Central Region)

1. FCT Abuja
~Obi-40%
~Tinubu-30%
~Atiku-25%
~Kwankwaso-5%

2. Benue State
~Atiku-40%
~Obi-30%
~Tinubu-25%
~Kwankwaso-5%

3. Kogi State
~Tinubu-35%
~Atiku-30%
~Obi-30%
~Kwankwaso-5%

4. Kwara State
~Tinubu-45%
~Atiku-30%
~Obi-20%
~Kwankwaso-5%

5. Nasarawa State
~Atiku-40%
~Tinubu-30%
~Obi-20%
~Kwankwaso-10%

6. Niger State
~Tinubu-45%
~Atiku-40%
~Obi-10%
~Kwankwaso-5%

7. Plateau State

~Tinubu-35%
~Atiku-35%
~Obi-30%

even from your own example if you look at Atiku v Tinubu, Niger and plateau no gain, nassarawa cancel Fct, Kwara and Kogi gains face similar loss in Benue …..total gain maybe 100k for the whole region for whoever wins….inconsequential!!!! 100k is hardly going to be a decider is it?