₦airaland Forum

Hmmm

ILEMUDA:
Breakdown of 2023 General Election

~North West Region
1. Atiku-45%
2. Kwankwaso-30%
3. Tinubu-20%
4. Obi-5%


~South West Region
1. Tinubu-70%
2. Obi-20%
3. Atiku-8%
4. Others-2%

~North East Region
1. Atiku-65%
2. Tinubu-20%
3. Obi-7%
4. Kwankwaso-7%
5. Others-1%

~South East Region
1. Obi-90%
2. Atiku-5%
3. Tinubu-5%

~South South Region

1. Obi-80%
2. Atiku-12%
3. Tinubu-8%


Now The Decider of 2023 General Election (North Central Region)

1. FCT Abuja
~Obi-40%
~Tinubu-30%
~Atiku-25%
~Kwankwaso-5%

2. Benue State
~Atiku-45%
~Obi-25%
~Tinubu-25%
~Kwankwaso-5%

3. Kogi State
~Tinubu-35%
~Atiku-30%
~Obi-30%
~Kwankwaso-5%

4. Kwara State
~Tinubu-45%
~Atiku-30%
~Obi-20%
~Kwankwaso-5%

5. Nasarawa State
~Atiku-40%
~Tinubu-30%
~Obi-20%
~Kwankwaso-10%

6. Niger State
~Tinubu-40%
~Atiku-40%
~Kwankwaso-10%
~Obi-10%

7. Plateau State
~Atiku-30%
~Tinubu 30%
~Obi-25%
~Kwankwaso-5%

You clearly don’t understand mathematics, you don’t know what a decider is or how elections are won. A region where the votes are split and the difference between winner and loser is a mere 10% or 5 percent is never an election decider…not in Nigeria!!!! trust me 1 state where a candidate gets 80-90%. Will wipe out the entire result of the NC region. Have you ever looked at the past results as a guide before you post. Please do, NC region is the most inconsequential region as far as polls because 1) most of their states have low numbers 2) the results are always less than 10% it means in a state with 700k votes, if you win all you have gained in 70k votes. A small state like Yobe with 500k votes will wipe out the entire result of the NC if I get 90% there.


Even by your own projections plateau is a wash as Atiku and Tinubu are equal it means they gained nothing from Plateau and obi is only 5% behind them, so he hasn’t lost much. 5% of plateau is only 50k votes!!!! how is that a decider?
Seriously you don’t understand the mathematics of elections!!!!

Elections are won not by the number of votes you get but by the gap between you and your opponents. If you are 40% 40% or 35%,35% none of you is winning o even if you have 5 million votes each!

This is why investment in Nigeria is risky. Somebody that has no money to develop land or company will agree to sell to you, You didn’t put a gun to their heads o! You risk your investment and when you are successful they will start forming it is their land….land that you sold?

China ti sa lo! Let Biden be making noise harassing Russia there!!!

Is this not the same man that collected billions for roads under Inasanjo and used it for campaign and built no roads?

[quote author=Zetty177x post=117481128][/quote]You really are daft, I. Asked you to show me where Buhari or the APC manifesto says $1 to N1 you are showing me poster. Do you not know people that don’t even know the candidates or are affiliated with the party print posters? Is it Peter obi that printed the caps or t shirts or posters supporters were wearing at rallies? Is it Peter obi that printed the flag that flag boy was carrying up and down?

If you had any brains the fact that it took you so long to find this poster should have told you it wasn’t from Buhari or Official APC.

By the way that is definitely photoshopped!!!

why do you follow a man to the toilet to ease himself?

This obsession with rallies is petty and lacks intellectual relevance. Once you are able to get a large turnout,, it shows you have support, the extent of that support cannot be determined by the crowd because I doubt any of the crowds of any candidate so far is up to 10,000! Even those commenting on Nairaland from these places were not there so rallies are not a representation of your base! The voters in these places are in the hundreds of thousands if not millions. So in all cases10,000 coming out to rally if you only have 20,000 supporters does not mean you will win if the guy with 200,000 supporters only had 9,000 people come out to rally.

What I do know is that very few people are going to change their votes between now and February. So rally or no rally the election has already been won or lost!!!! Any noise rally, insults or manifesto is just to fulfill all electoral righteousness!!

KikBuhari2Daura:
A vote for Obi is an indirect vote for Tinubu.......dont let political nativity destroy this country

It is too late, I have said it many times Atiku lost the day Ibi declared for president and Tinubu won the day he clinched the APC ticket! Elections are not about emotions, they are about numbers. Elections are about arithmetic, elections are about counting votes. Once you split a voter base (I.e PDP) without damaging your opponent (APC) you’ve already lost before the race starts!!!

You can’t take 15m v 11m from 2019, split the 11m PDP votes into say 7m/4m or 6m/5m. No matter how many new votes you are able to add, your 7m6m5m or 4m left over from the split can never catch the person who started with 15m even if he loses 3m votes from his 15m. Total new registrations are 8m, nobody will have more than 50% of those. Even if 50% of new registrations I.e 4m are for the person with the highest number of votes after splitting PDP votes I.e +7m, your 11m will not catch Tinubu even if he loses 3m from the 2019 votes and does not add a single vote from the new registrations!!!!

He has finally realized that All these visits abroad to people without PVCs is pointless

4teenblaq:
He will lose LAGOS state!! No body is changing mouth.


The point is he can only do his gragra in Lagos state(his backyard). He should go to state like Delta state or Anambra state to test his strength!!!

Wetin Concern Tinubu with Anambra or Delta votes when katsina Borno, Yobe Kebbi, etc dey there?

Plus Obi leaving PDP has done more for Tinubu is the SE and SS than anything Tinubu could ever have dreamed possible! Obi is a Godsend for Tinubu!

fridayking:
Attention must time result to greater number...
Even your APC is playing the same game...

That what we call political marketing...

That is what you call coming third. People who know how do win elections spend their time crunching numbers!!!

successmatters:
Look, you must campaign openly for Tinubu or we sack you

The guy knows his people have no chill, he no wan end up like Ifeanyi Uba!!!

phorget:
I would rather think emotionally if that would make me a better man than think strategically so as to be know worldwide.
If election is all about winning at every cost then I don't think it's worth it.

I know this because it is obvious from their actions that Obi and his Obidients are more interested in making noise and catching cruise than winning the election.

The actions of Obi and his supporters are that of people seeking attention and adoration not people serious about getting to Aso rock!!!

phorget:
Influence that doesn't translate to good standard of living...
Come to Sagamu you'll see them abokis moving to Lagos in their hundreds.

Guy stick to the issues. The reason you people always lose is you lose focus and start getting emotional! You have to get to power to implement your “great” policies. You get to power by winning elections, you win elections by having influence on voters! End of story!!!!

The world is full of great visionaries who never won elections and never changed the course of their societies and bad leaders who know how to win elections and ruined their societies.

Awolowo is recognized by all as the greatest visionary to ever come out of Nigeria but he is hardly known internationally and did not change the path of his country because he did not know how to win elections outside his base!! That’s the only reason Mandela is more recognized internationally simply for staying in a comfortable prison than Awo despite his transformation of western Nigeria!!! The whole World knows Mandela but no one outside Nigeria knows Awo despite all his achievements. Obi needs to decide if he wants to be the man on everyone’s lips for 5 months or the man who wrote his name in history. If he wants to be remembered by history it’s not hobnobbing in Harvard or Oxford or Sanusi that will put him in the history books as President of Nigeria!!!!

Moral of the story. It’s not about how good you are but if you can win the election!! It’s all about winning……. History will not remmember how clean Peter Obi is,, history will not remmember him if he cannot win the election. Does anyone remmember the people who contested against Shagari or MKO? No!!! History only remembers/honour the guy who made it into office!!!!

Cavorting with a man who has no political followership and who is banned from Kano May look good as a photo op but he is not the one that will get you votes in Kano of Ganduje, Kwakwanso and the other fellow whose name I forget!!!! That’s emotional thinking not strategic thinking.

phorget:
You mean Ganduje the dollar man?...

The one that has more influence on Kano votes than Sanusi

TonyeBarcanista:
Audio #75bn that Obiano is yet to see...

Don’t waste your time with these people. If you look at where the votes came from in 2019, factor in new registrations and sit at homers and do the math, you will realize Obi can’t even come second. He just doesn’t have the numbers!!!!

Trinitycian:
PDP has come to rescue us from the maladministration inflicted on us by the Asiwaju Peoples Congress (APC)

What was Sokoto’s net contribution to The APC victory in 2019? Of the over 4m NET votes by which Buhari defeated Atiku in 2019, Sokoto contributed 130k net i.e 3.2%…and less than Kwara! Of the 15 million total votes APC got, Sokoto contributed 490k again about 3%….less than Yobe!!

Contrast those figures with Katsina, Kebbi Yobe and Borno and you will understand it is not a big deal. I will use Borno ,Kebbi, Yobe and Katsina as examples in the following format:
Net votes for APC in the state in 2019, net votes as a % of total margin of victory, total votes in state for APC, total votes as a percentage of total national votes for APC

Katsina: 920k, 23%, 1.2m 8%
Borno 765k, 19%, 836k, 5.5%
Kebbi 427k, 11%, 581k, 3.8%
Sokoto 130k, 3.2% 490k, 3%
Yobe 440k, 11%, 498k, 3%


If you compare these figures you will come to a few conclusions

1) 64% of Buhari’s 4m “NET votes” or margin of victory came from katsina, Borno, Yobe and Kebbi!! For those who do not understand, you win an election not by the number of votes you get but by the number of votes you get over your opponent! That is what is referred to as margin of victory or NET votes. Of the 4 million NET votes by which he defeated Atiku, these 4 states alone contributed approximately 2.7m! Don’t forget I am referring to NET votes!.

2) Sokoto and Yobe contributed similar number of absolute votes 490k v 497k but the Sokoto vote is not a very efficient vote because it is a split state and only contributed
3.2% to his margin of victory whereas Yobe contributed 11%. A vote in Yobe is 3.5 times more powerful, it does 3.5 times more damage than the sokoto vote! Despite being a much smaller state with less voters , a state like Yobe does 3.5 times more damage than a state like sokoto!! That’s the power of having total domination of a state and not sharing votes with opposition!!!

Elections are not about how many votes you have but about how many MORE votes you have over your opponent. Sokoto and Yobe illustrate this perfectly!! BUhari got the same number of votes in both Yobe and Sokoto but because they shared Sokoto voters but dominated Yobe, Sokoto only contributed 130k votes while Yobe a smaller state with less voters contributed 440k almost 3 times. This is why I keep saying the effect of Peter Obi in this race is is as a spoiler to PDP because all he is doing is splitting PDP votes while leaving core APC dominated states intact!!!!

So when talking about defections and figures you must also understand what they mean. While Sokoto is important (every vote is) importance in elections is relative. Sokoto is not that important for APC!!!

Before you start getting excited

1) We all know Tinubu will lose some Northern votes because a) Buhari is no longer on the ballot and b) Atiku is on the ballot.

The questions are

1) Who are Northern APC votes going to and the answer is Atiku not Obi.
2) Are the votes Atiku is picking up from Tinubu in the North enough to make up for the votes he is losing to OBi in the SE and SS? IMHO the answer is no!!!

Finally is sokoto an APC stronghold? The answer is no. In 2019 APC only got 490k votes in sokoto compared to 1.4m in Kano, 1.2m in Katsina, 830k in Borno, 1m in Kaduna, 800k In Bauchi. Considering Somoto is Tambuwal territory losing a ward or 2 is no big deal. Apc even got 120k more votes in Niger than Sokoto…. Despite the 490k votes from sokoto to ApC in 2019, the net contribution (which is what really matters) of sokoto to Buhari’s victory in 2019 was only 130k votes!!! For context Borno’s net vote contribution in 2029 was 790k and katsina was 1m NET votes. Net votes I.e the gap between you and your opponents is what matters!! Even Kebbi’s net vote contribution to APc in 2019 was MORE than twice that of Sokoto. Sokoto (130k net) only contributed about 3% to Buhari’s net margin of victory (over 4m votes) in 2019 So don’t over dramatize things.

I have said it many times. Those who understand the importance of net victory/loss and truly understand election mathematics know that this election will be won in states where you control 70% and above of the votes. Most states, the votes will be shared with inconsequential net gains or losses that will cancel each other out. It is states like Borno where Asiwaju will get 90% of 1m votes for example that will determine the results of the election not states where the difference between winner and loser is 150k or less votes. If you are sharing votes, you are not in the race, if you don’t have states that will give you 500k plus net votes, you are not in the race. I have said it many times but people don’t understand, you can lose 7 states and make it up with 1 state where you control 90% of the votes!!!! 50% of the gap between Buhari and Atiku came from just 3 states katsina, Borno and Kebbi. I have not mentioned Kano with contributed another 25% because Kano is up in the air. When you start hearing of defections in Borno, katsina Yobe or Kebbi, let us know until then no shaking!!!! Because unless you can eat into the APC domination in those states, it is mathematically impossible for the divided votes of the opponents of to catch the APC.

Headlines sells but everything in its proper context!! If and When people start to defect in Katsina and Borno let us know

pleasureosondu:
This revelation is coming just days after Obi revealed that government officials are involved in oil theft. Interestingly, the Minister For Petroleum and Natural Resources is APC's Buhari


Pic 1
The oil rig platform which supports the illegal pipeline. It is owned by Shell.

Pic 2
An operative explains how the illegal pipeline works within the rig including loading the crude oil on ships

true but it was done before Buhari came to power under PDP, your articles says so.

Tinubuadvocate:
I have said it time without number that peter obi is senseless and dull.

Sensible people know this. it really has gotten to a point where to be an OBi supporter you must be reallly dull!!!

Beckham14:
Make this guy rest.... Nor be wetin the gods of the land send am make he do be dis.

Wetin them send an make e do as Oyinbo don collect him Kingdom?

IfnobeGod20:
You're now changing the narrative because you can't win the discourse. When you know he can't win while saying he won't function with populated other parties' members. Double faced human being.
Whenever you guys see superior argument, you changed it to another language. To engage intellectual mind, you need to prepare yourself because we are never in your class. We also don't play politics with right thing, we put issue in perspective.

I shave not changed the narrative. My post oabout his ability to get anything done and fulfill his manifesto was hypothetical. I.e assuming he even wins! I have always said if you read my posts that he doesn’t have the votes to win, it is mathematically impossible!!! Like I said it is futile arguing with people who are not rational but are here to argue ad infinitum and insult people with different views.


Please do not respond to me again!!

It’s my fault for trying to enlighten idiots!!!

IfnobeGod20:
And you think impeaching a president is just like tea party. It doesn't start and stop at the hallowed chamber, many factors outside the hallowed chamber are involved.
Check the procedure for impeaching a president in Nigeria, very high mountain to climb.

Is the impeachment of a president so easy as some people thought? Very huge mountain to climb.
The impeachment doesn't start and end at the National Assembly. It requires many actors outside the Senate.
This lady and many proponents of the message are ignorant . It's one thing to go to school, it's another thing to allow school to go through you.
The below article will clear many people's ignorance.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://lawpadi.com/process-impeaching-president-nigeria/&ved=2ahUKEwjHxsrVo875AhUGOewKHZv8D1QQFnoECAYQAQ&usg=AOvVaw3mxrEPi15QBppBECk9A1qk

i dont have time to argue with irrational people. I have said my piece, i expect you to argue ad-infinitum. it doesnt matter and it is not worth my time because he wont become president in the 1st place!!! it is one thing assuming executive office without friendly faces in parliarment and maintaining the status quo, its another attempting to disrupt the system with a hostile parliarment, if you cant see that its not just a recipe for failure, i.e grid lock, it is a recipe for disaster, then there is nothing I can say to you.

DesChyko:
Yes. Yet, he won back his mandate every single time because they were based on frivolity and fuelled corrupt actors. Corruption always fight back and if there's something to learn here, it is that it takes the purest of intentions to scale through.

Relax and enjoy organic good governance.

Vote wisely.

Yes but you are missing the point, they are going to fight him and he cannot pass budgets or laws without them so his entire presidency is dependent on the cooperation of people whose interests are not aligned with his. I am sure you will say he can do it but. those of us who are realistic and unemotional know it is impossible!!

DesChyko:
He was once a public servant at the helm of affairs. He completed a double tenure.

Can you tell us how many House members he had before he pursued his anti-corruption agenda?

he was impeached twice and has nothing memorable to show. Are they not the ones going to pass your laws or approve your budget?

Massiveglory:
With the senators and hor majority that you have had, what have you done with it?
Dullness is in your DNA. I am 200% you are an agbadorian cos almost everyone of you think and talk alike.

Let me school you.
What the Nigeria needs is not who is majority or minority. What we need is an Head of state with the right state of head, leading by example.
Every person will fall in place. Only a fool will see honey and choose death.

You are not schooling anybody, you are merely showing your ignorance!!! the same senators padding budget will agree to do Obi's bidding so he can succeed and they can be voted out? Get real!!!! This is a man who was impeached twice in Anambra by an opposition house, he will be impeached if he tries what he is saying!!

Theory and practice are 2 different things. You are the ones who are dull because you cannot see the big picture and emotion has blunted any brain cells you may have!!

Massiveglory:
Articulate. Inclusive. Achievable.

[b][/b]
For me, @ bold is the key to restoring Nigeria to the path of honor. That is main key that holds the password to other areas.
Peter obi did it in anambra. I believe it is doable nationally.

I see hope. I see truth. I see a bright future.
Nigeria will be great again. God bless the incoming president and vice president of the federal republic of Nigeria.

use your brains, you want to fight corruption but you dont have senators or House memebers to pass the necessasry laws. do you not see this is dead on Arrival. the people that are corrupt will help you to remove corruption?

Jesus wept. I often wonder who is more clueless, Obi or his supporters?

the manifesto of a clueless cowboy!!!

nlfpmod:
https://akelicious.net/2022/10/07/prospects-of-transformative-governance-in-nigeria-peter-obi-releases-his-manifesto/

And you will do this without any senators or house members, with the speaker and senate president from the opposition party….fantasists!!!!!

Zetty177x:
Afonja, I de wait u o. U don run?

I asked you to provide proof that Buhari or APc promised 1 to 1 dollar to Naira in their manifesto. I even promised to give you 10k if you can provide it. I further told you if you are right, it will be on the internet so I have told you where to look, in case you dont have the brain cells to use google. Do not divert from the topic, that was the basis in which you engaged me. Do not quote me again until you have the evidence because I will ignore you!!!

I would have thought you would be eager to make a fool out of me and make 10k in the process. I would have thought you would be eager to embarrass me on Nairaland but so far you are the one proving to be the fool!

All this diversion and abuse, I am not interested in. I already know you Obidients are mostly intellectually empty inside and have no brain cells. Provide the proof of the allegation that started your unsolicited interaction with me or STFU!!!!!

I dey my lane, I don’t engage fools on Nairaland, na you come meet me thinking you are dealing with a fellow dullard with your post below and I merely asked for evidence of your claim.

Zetty177x:
So why did they promise to change 1 dollar to #1 naira ...at least they should have left it at the #180.. now its #700

Let us be a lesson to you not to argue with people above your level of intellect! Because we will take you to the cleaners! Not everyone on Nairaland is like you a product of a failed education system!!! if you are coming for me better come equiped because trust me I am not on your level!!!!

Diffdeef:
This is obviously fake

Definitely fake the only numbers at obi rallies are

IPOB commander, IPOB lieutenant, IPOB secretary, ESN commander area 3, UNknown gunmen look out. Etc etc