₦airaland Forum

Kwakwanso to collapse structure for Tinubu, you heard it here 1st!!!!

Gunayo:
So the people that killed Christians in owo are Igbos Abi? The people that attacked communities in Ibadan are Igbos right? That you are benefiting from a corrupt leader in Lagos does not mean you should not have conscience. I am a Yoruba Christian and l reside in the north, but l and many other like-mind Yoruba Christians will vote A Christian candidate in person of Obi.

Did I say they were Ibos? Keep putting words into my mouth. The Owo killings were actually a business deal gone wrong, that has been confirmed, the perpetrators have been apprehended. There are a lot of crime going on in Nigeria that have nothing to do with religion, many are just criminals, a lot of it has to do with illegal mining. It is no coincidence that many of these things happens around hotspots for illegal mining!! Muslims are also victims. Someone who claims to live in the north should know. Muslims kill Muslims in the north just like Ibos are killing Christians in the south. There is a legitimate problem of I swap and boko haram but besides them, the rest are just criminals be really it has nothing to do with religion.

In any event did t all this happen when Osinbajo not just a Christian but a pastor is the VP?

Gunayo:
l laugh at this your comment. So if Christians are killed in other part of the country and not Lagos is not a big deal to you. May God help you.

That is not what I said, and if you want to play that card, the people beheading and killing Christians in the east are not Muslims but SE Christians ! Peter Obi who gave shoot on sight order to SARS in Anambra and under whose authority SARS committed untold atrocities and who is responsible for countless Christian bodies dumped in a river is a Christian!!! Don’t play the religious card here! The irony is that endsars protesters are backing a man who is one of those responsible for SARS becoming what it became!!!

dre11:
https://www.thecable.ng/sources-atiku-to-cut-short-europe-trip-to-attend-osun-pdp-rally/amp

Excuse me when you say cut short? He didn’t know There was election in Osun before he booked his holiday?

Gunayo:
Vote whoever you wish to vote. Let me tell you, Christians including you will suffer more persecutions if Tinubu becomes the president. That was how we warned people like you that Buhari is not a good choice but you all turned deaf ears. So look at the level we are now. These will be child's play compare to what will happen if the Muslim Muslim ticket succeed. If you think Tinubu will be different, you must be joking. Let's vote out both APC and PDP. Let's fix this country by voting competency. A vote for Obi is a vote for liberation.

Issokay, this is a democracy, vote as you like and we will vote as we like. But I’ll tell you for free, if you want to convince anyone who isn’t already Obidient to vote Obi you won’t achieve it will doom mongering and fear mongering!! You all left your Christian states to make a life in A Lagos state controlled for years by Muslims and nobody killed you!!!!

Nonsense!!! People that were never going to vote for Tinubu concerned about his running mate!!! Why are you worried, Shebi Obi us the next president?

The problem with educated urbane Nigerians on social media, is that they feel their views matter or that they represent the majority or that the majority should think like them or that they are qualified to speak for the majority!!! First of all we represent at most 20% of the population and of the people who vote. What this means is that if you are lucky the best you can get is 20% of Nigerians who think like you and we know even amongst ourselves we have varied views. Secondly the 80% that determine elections don’t think like us. For example, issues like Electricity, price of gas, exchange rate, etc that concern us aren’t their problems. What concern them are very basic needs, food, water, borehole, kerosene. schools for their children. (They don’t know the difference between good education and bad education. Just that their children can attend school), health and roads, that’s why governors are always keen to build roads!!!!! A former governor told me this many years ago, the masses like things they can see like roads!!!! You are I are worried about simplifying customs clearance, airport wahala, ease of doing business, these things mean nothing to the 80% who matter and determine elections that’s why they don’t get fixed!!! We don’t have enough numbers and hence votes to matter!!!! That’s why subsidy has not been removed despite the damage it is doing to the economy. The 80% will feel it and they do t u see stand the implications of the continued subsidy regime!


80% of Northerners are going to vote for a northerner or a Muslim, 80% of Ibos will vote for an Ibo , 80% of yorubas are going to vote for a yoruba man. We should stop deceiving ourselves, we the 20% don’t determine elections! That’s why market women, NURTW, farmers, okada riders etc are more important to politicians that the educated English speaking 20%. Not only that, the 80% turn out to vote, the 20% make noise but on the day many don’t show up!!! have you ever wondered by it is so difficult to get rid of okadas and all those Agberos and Nurtw that cause more traffic and a nuiscance to society than benefit? because they matter to the 80% and they are part of the 80%. You wondered why we dont get modern roadweeping machines to sweep the streets and instead sweep the roads with brooms? Go and ask Ambode what cost him his 2nd term...the 80% didnt like his new modern refuse plan that was taking away their livelihoods from them, they complained to the party hierachy and to avoid a revolt, Tinubu had to sacrifice him.

The 80% are who matters in elections, they are the delegates that determine the candidates, they are the ones who vote, it is their issues that matter to our leaders and the 20% speaking English upandan never seem to understand this. The quicker Obedients realise this the quicker they channel their energies where it really matters because as things stand, Tinubu is heading for a landslide and all the Obedient movement has doen is to decimate and damage the real challenge to Tinubu...Atiku!!! The people they are abusing and insulting on social media only control 20% of the vote!!!!

Gunayo:
Sorry is your case then. You can be a Christian for mouth but not a true follower of Christ. A true Christian will not choose evil over good.

You are the problem of Nigeria so anyone who is Muslim is evil abi, is that what th Bible teaches? You will claim to have Muslim friends!!! I am a Christian and I will vote Tinubu!

EmekaMD:
Tinubu is in for a big loss.

Choose a muslim and loose 50% of the Nigerian population
choose christian and loose the muslim north who dont see you as a true muslim.


In any case Tinubu wont make it out..

In that case, you should be happy!

Odingo1:
I pity the Christians in Nigeria if they allow a Muslim-Muslim ticket to rule Nigeria. Can Muslims allow Christian-Christian tickets without going on rampant killings.

This thing is not hard like this o! Feel free to vote for Atiku or Obi and leave us in peace!!

People who were never going to vote for Tinubu and people who claim he cant win and that their candidate will win are here crying more than the bereaved. You would think Obi and Atiku supporters would be happy at this news...no?


When Obi left PDp we were happy, We are happy Obi is gaining momentum because we know he cant win and he can only damage our main rival. The more Obidients the better!!! So i cant understand by people who dont support Tinubu are unhappy that he chose a Muslim VP!!! What you are effectively saying is that he made a good choice and he will win!

VoteObi2023:
You guys underestimates the power of herd mentality.

Do you think a lot of people joined the EndSARS because they wanted, they joined because of what we call FOMO in marketing

Herd mentality works on you people because you are not capable of thinking independently, the yoruba man has always been capable of thinking independently, that’s why even before Tinubu announced his running mate there are yorubas for APC, PDP and LP! We are not like you!!!!!!!

VoteObi2023:
You should take some time to study the new electoral guideline. It's not business as usual.

If you are not accredited, just go home and cry. No manual voting

Jesus wept!!!!! You really need help!!!!

VoteObi2023:
Like I said, keep deceiving yourself.

A pastor has more than 1 vote in Nigeria and we listen to him. We are voting for the FAITH.

You mean a VP that supervised the kidnapping of Christian Chibok girls?

You are not yoruba, you were never going to vote for Tinubu. I have told you you don’t know how to debate because you are clouded by emotion. Your view and that of others in the church who aren’t yorubas is irrelevant to the discussion because you were never going to vote for Tinubu. There are yorubas who are going to vote Tinubu, Atiku and Obi because the yoruba man is an independent thinker. At this stage a pastor is not going to persuade a yoruba Christian who has decided to vote for Tinubu to vote otherwise. Is Osinbajo who is himself a pastor or Tinubu’s wife or all the yoruba Redeemed pastors who have benefitted from Osinbajo being the VP going to vote against Tinubu because he chose Shettima? Learn to stay focused!!!!

VoteObi2023:
Throwing tantrums won't change the electoral guideline.



Yes. It will disenfranchise many people by failing to authenticate a lot of PVCs.



Old electoral law.

In the new law, INEC declares inconclusive election based on number of collected PVCs not total registered voters.



It's seems you don't understand how Nigeria election works.

If the BVAS accredit only 100k people out of the 3 million Borno registered voters, only that number will vote. The rest will go home and cry.

If these 100k people vote and Peter Obi wins Atiku with just 100 votes but voided votes is less than 100, let's say 50, INEC will declare the election as conclusive.

INEC will only call for rerun if the number of voided votes is more than 100.

Only those accredited by BVAS will vote and some device will definitely malfunction.

You really shouldn’t be debating. you are all over the place! Because you are guided by emotion not objectivity. Maybe in your quiet time you will realize the error of what you just posted..

VoteObi2023:
Keep deceiving yourself.

Even my pastor in LFC is OBIdient. We are voting for the FAITH

Clearly you were never a member of the debating society in school. You argue pointlessly!!!! A pastor has only 1 vote! So what if a pastor says he is obidient?

I have said all I need to say on the matter. Yorubas are 50% Christian, 50% Muslim. The people who were not voting for Tinubu have already made up their minds not to vote for him, whether he picks Christian or Muslim VP. Those Christians that were going to vote for him, will not say because of religion, they will vote for Atiku or Obi. In any event Yorubas like I said are 50% Christian, 50% Muslim so he has a 50% block in his pocket!!!

The race for the presidency was never going to be won in Lagos. That is why he chose a VP from a state with 90% loyal votes!!!

VoteObi2023:
Keep deceiving yourself.

Each BVAS is loaded with about 64 GB before you take it to the polling unit. If the device malfunctions and you call INEC, their response is always:

Connect the device to the internet and refresh.

If you like refresh, if you don't have 4G, it will be slow. Some machines won't even authenticate.

If the machine doesn't need network and can read downloaded data seamlessly, why is it malfunctioning.

If the machine fails to authenticate you, just go home and cry. Nothing else

You are clearly not very enlightened, informed on how elections work. I am not going to engage you any further on BVAS because I know your type, you will continue to argue….without facts or evidence.

So let me show the futility of your unsubstantiated claims from the point of view of the law. Your argument if I recall was that the huge numbers in the North will not count because they won’t be able to vote because of BVAS. I have been telling you throughout this thread to talk like an educated man but since you have failed let me educate you.

To educate you, I will take you back to Osun state elections if 2018. The results were close and a some areas in Ife were unable to vote. What happened?….the number of voters in that area was significant enough to alter the result of the election such that a new election had to be ordered in those affected areas. Apc did a deal with Onisore before the rerun and Omisore delivered those voters and Oyetola became governor.

The relevance you ask? If voters are disenfranchised and the number of voters in that area are large enough to alter the result of an election, a winner cannot be announced until elections are held in those areas!!! So rest assured bogus BVAS claims or not, elections will be held in the North, either on the day of general elections or they will be rescheduled. The numbers you are afraid of voting WILL vote, one way or another because they are large enough to affect the outcome!!!!!

VoteObi2023:
At the moment, most of the pastors preaching against Moslem Moslem ticket on their pulpits are Yorubas.

Wait till Tinubu unveils Shettima and the noise will deafening.

.

I don’t know how many times I will tell you this, they are preaching to people who were never going to vote for Tinubu even if he chose a Christian vp. As for noise, the noise coming from the SW is coming from non indigenes living in the SW. again these people were never going to vote for Tinubu.

sotall:
Who be the we?

Better go back to your mosque and do salat.

The pastors of SW Christians have started mobilizing against Tinubu.

They are even the most vocal amongst Nigerian Christians e.g Bishop Oyedepo.

Like I said they are noise makers!!!! A yoruba Christian that was previously going to vote for Atiku or Obi will vote for them whether Tinubu chooses a Christian or Muslim VP. A yoruba Christian that was going to vote for Tinubu that is that bothered will look at his options.... Atiku or Obi, borrow himself brain and vote for Tinubu. FACT!!!! Any yoruba man telling you otherwise was never going to vote for Tinubu!!!!

You are clearly not a yoruba Christian, because if you are, you know this already and the only reason you are posting this is because you were never going to vote Tinubu!!!!

sotall:
Why did you exclude the block vote of RCCG,WINNERS CHAPEL, MFM,DEEPER LIFE AND OTHER Huge Christian denominations in the Southwest?

You think they will vote Tinubu after picking a Muslim vp?

They are noisemakers, we the SW Christians, we know these pastors for what they are!! Dont try and tell a man about his own household. You are not a Northerner, you are not a yoruba but all I read from you is you trying to talk authoritatively about the habits and mindset of people you do not know based on the mindset of your own people. I know my house and my people better than you.

VoteObi2023:
Of course, it should be clear.

You are only holding your stance and pushing the Tinubu will win in the North narrative because you are a Yoruba man.

If Tinubu VP ticket fails to go to NW, he will lose NW woefully. It it goes to NW, he will lose NE woefully.

No I am telling you that religion is not and has traditionally never been a divisive issue for us in the SW. There is no family in the SW that doesnt have christians and muslims. I have very close relatives that I didnt even know their father was a muslim till I was a well grown adult, in fact until when he died and they buried him according to muslim rites. i have classmates that are muslim, weve mixed together, drink together, chased women together all our lives in peace until you people brought your religious disharmony. We eat Salah meat together and eat christmas chicken together, infact we yoruba christians ldont mess around with ileya meat....whose house are we going!! You probably can't fathom what i am saying because you are not yoruba.

VoteObi2023:
You don't know and you are still arguing.

Do you expect INEC to tell you that their machine needs 4G to work properly? You are funny if you expect that.
I
Ifou don't connect that machine to a 4G it will malfunction. If it doesn't malfunction, it will take long to read the cards.

Please talk like you education has taught you how to reason properly. For the umpteenth time, a network is only required to download polling user data, software updates prior to the beginning of voting. Once voting starts, users are verified against data that has already been downloaded on the BVAS. When election is finished, BVAS requires a network to transmit. Is this so difficult for you to process?

VoteObi2023:
Wait till he announces his moslem VP first.

If you think a typical Moslem Northerner will vote Tinubu because he chose a Moslem VP over Kwankwanso and Atiku, then it means you have been to the North before.

Again, Moslem NW will never leave Kwankwanso and Atiku to vote for a Moslem VP from NE.

Tinubu has a Christian wife he has refused to convert and this will count.

Most of the Northerners who will vote for Tinubu are those who will still vote for him if he picks a Christian VP.

Tinubu can never win more Moslem votes than Kwankwanso and Atiku. Now with the Moslem-Moslem ticket, he will lose Christian votes in the North.

He will also lose some SW Christian votes.

It's here I always hear religion don't matter in the SW. I live in Lagos and I can tell you it does.

Some Yoruba Christians don't even trust their Moslems 100%

It is clear You are not a yoruba man.

VoteObi2023:
If this is true, why is the BVAS recording less than 90% success rate?

The BVAS can verify with internet but to work hitch-free you will need to connect it to a 4G network.

During Anambra election, many of the machines malfunctioned until connected to the internet.

I still stand on my words, with the BVAS, the North will not be able to return their huge numbers again

My friend I have told you I don’t know much about BVAS but from what I have read in the last few minutes. Network is not required for verification and voting. A network is only required to download PU data before election and for transmitting.

I am not interested in your words, like I have said previously , you talk more out of hope than (with due respect) facts logic and common sense. I deal in facts and logic. An electoral body cannot deploy a system that disenfranchises voters, common sense would tell anyone with common sense that. It is grounds for cancellation or invalidating an election!!! Giving examples of pilot rollout where teething problems are expected is clutching at straws

VoteObi2023:
Says someone who believes that Tinubu will win with Moslem-Moslem ticket.

Thanks God for BVAS that will stop their rigging.

The difference between you and I is that there is logic and reason to my assertions and none to yours but blind hope!

Tinubus voters are mainly in the SW and in the North. SE and SS are not voting for him so he is not going to lose any votes there because he chooses a mulsim.

That leaves North and SW.


SW are liberal, (by SW I mean Yorubas) we grew up with muslims, we have family and friends that are muslims, we have hard core catholics/pentecostals married to muslims, religion is and has never been an issue until certain people started to use it for politics, I am a christian!!! He will lose a few votes but not that many. Nobody in the SW is going to withdraw his/her vote against Tinubu because he chose a muslim-muslim and then cast their vote for Atiku . As for those in the SW who will vote Peter OBi, mostly the English speaking youth and some of theeducated elite, they have already made up their minds to vote Peter Obi whether he chooses Muslim or Christian. Also dont get carried away by their presence on Social media, these people are the loudest but they are a minority!!! 80% of the electorate in both the North and the south vote based on criteria different from the English speaking educated/ Twitter elite. if you put together in a crowd all the yorubas supporting peter Obi, I doubt you will fill a 60,0000 stadium!! Dont confuse SW with yorubas, there are many people who live in the SW who arent yorubas, many were never voting for Tinubu to begin with, most are PDP voters who will vote Obi. So no need to appease them!!!

that leaves the North

Tinubu is losing no votes in the North because he chooses a Muslim muslim ticket. If anything he gains votes in the North. He will lose some Northern Christians but he will gain/ retain more Northern muslims that may have ported to Atiku.

Thats how you come to a logical conclusion, not by pipedreams and fantasy!!!

VoteObi2023:
Go read the electoral act and new electoral guidelines.

Votes in a polling unit will be cancelled if the result in the incidence form doesn't match the one transmitted by electronically.

Also, you are disenfranchised if the BVAS fails to accredit you for whatever reason.

Now inconclusive election is based on collected PVC not registered voters

I think youve got it all wrong. BVAS only needs a network to download the polling unit data for voter verification and software updates on to the device, these would clearly have been done before voting. BVAS does not require a network for verification because the data it is veryfying against is already on the device. The only time BVAS requires a network is after voting when it will require a network to transmit the results and the scanned EC8 form.

VoteObi2023:
SE

SS

NC

North Christian Votes, including Southerner Kaduna

Already in the bag. With the BVAS, Kano and Katsina will struggle to release their dubious 2m votes.

A lot of Nigerians talk out of hope rather than facts and empirical evidence. You clearly fall into the latter!!!

VoteObi2023:
Accreditation is only via BVAS and it uses 4G network. The device transmits automatically the number of accredited votes.

If you are not accredited, go home. That the new guideline.

I need to research this because it makes no sense!

VoteObi2023:
It's already in the bag

I won’t argue. But to expect him to win any state outside the the SE is delusional. Maybe at the next cycle but not 2023.

VoteObi2023:
You are the one that don't get it, only voters accredited by BVAS can vote and the device requires 4G to work optimally.

MTN the largest network provider in Nigeria has 60% 4G penetration.

A lot people will be disenfranchised in the North.

Also, the main election rigging don't happen in the polling unit, because of the open counting system and the fact that most of the voters know themselves.

The main rigging happens during collations. With electronic transmission, voting padding will be eliminated as the results are transmitted from the polling unit together with scanned copy of the signed results.

My friend I do not understand BVAS but common sense dictates that INEC cannot deploy a system that disenfranchises voters. If there are areas where BVAS does not work, an alternative must exist by law. you cannot say because there is no signal in my area I cannot vote

VoteObi2023:
Taraba is already OBIdient

let him win his SE states first, if he manages that he would have done well!!!

sotall:
Wike work for APC?

What did you smoke when writing that?

why has he been wearing yoruba cap since he was snubbed as VP?

Like I always say, I urge people to look at the results of the last elections and analyze the data.

The mathematics of elections:

1. Most states are won by a victory of 51-60%. In terms of numbers that usually translates to a gain of between 10k and 150k. It doesn’t matter if you get 1m votes in a state, if your opponent gets 950k in that state, all you have gained is 50k!!! A state that gives you 400k votes but only 40k votes to your opponent has done more to make you president. If Kano with 2m votes decides to share its votes 600k, 700k, 700k, then it becomes less important in determining the presidency! Anambra with less than 600K votes in the last election was more important to PDP than Plateau or Admamwa because it gave PDP almost all it's votes (535K) whereas Plateau and Adamawa shared it votes and only contributed net votes of 80k and 32K respectively.

2. Most of these results in these type of states, cancel each other out. For instance a 10k victory for APC in Osun is wiped out by a 10k victory for PDP in Benue, A 70k APC gain in Kogi is wiped out by a 70k gain for PDP is Plateau. And so on.

3. Presidential Elections are won in the states where you have a 70-90% victory especially when those states have numbers in the millions. Those are the states that give you an unassailable lead!!!! The more of them you have the quicker you start writing your victory speech!!!!

4. The SE has been a stronghold of PDP and they are in danger of losing votes and their margin in Anambra, Enugu and Ebony. These were states where they got 70% and above. Delta, cross River and Akwa Ibom are the only states where Atiku had over 70% and they could be in play for Obi( he can’t win but he will damage their lead).

5. Atiku had only 6 states with a 70+% victory compared to Buhari’s 10, and he will def lose that margin in 3 due to Obi before voting even starts. Therefore Atiku certainly cannot win the election because he has lost his stronghold of the SE. that is a major voting block is his assault on APC that has been taken from him. If Wike does a deal with APC, he might as well stay in Uk or Dubai or wherever he is. Most of his other victories will be marginal as described above. Even in his own state of Adamawa he won by only 50% and 30k votes.

6. The states that will determine the election are states where parties control more than 70% of votes especially if the votes in those states are more than 1m.

See below, in 1st picture, from Jigawa to Borno are APC states with more than 70%, 2nd picture are PDP states with more than 70%, 3rd picture are from Abia to Kwara are either marginal states that cancel each other out or the victory in those states do not make a huge difference. Abia for instance cancels out Kwara, Ekiti cancels Taraba, Bayelsa cancels Ogun, Osun cancels Benue, Kogi cancels Plateau etc etc etc!!