₦airaland Forum

[quote author= post=115319136]2019 presidential election in Lagos State with voting population of 6.5 million, with crises witnessed in some parts of Lagos then, 2023 the new electoral law and awareness among youths the result will shock many

Lagosians voted for APC 580,825 and PDP 448,015 difference 132,810.[/quote]It is good to see you are now understanding that it is difference that matters in an election and Lagos won’t matter in 2023 for any party! Lagos will only contribute a small lead for whoever wins Lagos, because all 3 candidates will share the votes, same thing in more than half of the states. Like I said the other day the election will be won in states where a candidate has total dominance of votes and hence large differences.

[quote author= post=115289299][s][/s]
Sorry you are wrong[/quote]anybody can say you are wrong, an intelligent man will say why. Thankfully, this is not opinion, this is fact, this is mathematics, this is science. There is no opinion only fact...the figures do not lie. again look at the link I posted sort the results by percentage and you will see, if you do not see, your problem is a different problem because elections are about addition and subtraction and 1 plus 1 is always 2!!!

Most states do not matter, the states that determine the president are the number of states where you control 70% and above. its not the absolute number of votes but your cumulative margins of victory/defeat in the states combined.

I am sure a child understands that if you have 4 million voters in a state and you and your opponent get 2 million votes each, that state is a wash and has done NOTHING for you ...except fulfill the 25% statutory requirement!!! The 4 million voters could just as well have stayed at home!!!!

when all the irrational emotion, name calling, bragging etc of electioneering is over it all boils down to a very simple and basic process.....arithmetic how many votes do you have, how many do i have, who has more...simple!!!! when you understand that you will understand that the winner emerges not because he got X million votes but because he got more votes than his opponent . The name of the game is not the number of votes but the DIFFERENCE in number of votes....difference is what makes you a winner or a loser not the absolute number of votes!!! Anyone who doesnt understand that is not ready to win an election!!!

If you win a state but it is not a big victory it is meaningless. in 2019, Borno alone wiped out PDP's victories in edo, Benue, Adamawa, Taraba, Platawu, oyo, ondo , bayelsa and FCt Akwa ibom and cross river combined!!!!!! ...thats PDP victory in 11 states and the FCT wiped out by 1 state ...should i repeat that so it sinks in?

...and 1 of those states (plateau) actually had more votes than Borno state but it did nothing for PDP because the votes were split! so dont get carried away with absolute numbers...thats for amateurs!!


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Nigerian_general_election

[quote author= post=115285535]Borno they were making noise isn't upto 3 million registered voters, Anambra is even higher than Borno[/quote]you clearly do not understand how voting works and how elections are won. It is not about how many votes a state has but the lead a party will get in that state. if state A has 1 million votes and the state is split between the 3 parties, say 350, 330 and 320K, then state A and its votes are of no real consequence because state B with only 500k votes where your party controls the state 90% will put you into a huge lead even if you came 3rd in state A. in the example above, despite losing state A by 30k, you are ahead of your closest rival by 370K despite him winning the big state because of small state B because State B (450k-50k) has given you a margin of victory and a lead of 400K votes and your loss in state A is only 30k votes.

Thats why states like Borno where a single party is dominant are important, they will always vote 80-90% APC/PDP and they have 1m votes

No doubt 2023 will be different and no one can predict because the result of the peter Obi phenomenon and surge in user registration has not been tested but if you look at the votes from 2019. You will see that lagos was inconsequential in 2019 despite having a high voter population because the votes were split.

the election will be won (as it has always been) not by the number of voters in a state but by the margin of victory in a state that is what contributes to your eventual victory

APC lost Oyo but the damage to the total was only 30k votes, APC lost ground in lagos but it didnt matter because APC won Borno the contribution to the total was close to 760k votes and the 3rd highest contribuor to the gap over PDP. Wheras PDP cleared the SS and SE, it had had no single state where it had a 500k margin over APC!! That is how elections are won, it is not the absolute number of voters but the margin of victory


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Nigerian_general_election

Very few of the APC controlled strongholds (a state where they control 70% of the votes) are under threat but virtually all the PDP strongholds are under threat of dilution by Obi voters. PDP's 2 best states in 2018 were Enugu and Anambra, they are not going to get the 87 and ^4 percent victories they had in 2019 because of Obi, even if they win, that margin is coming down. What this means is that even if PDP or OBi win these states, their margin of victory will be so low they will need 6 or 7 states just to make up the victory of APC in a state like Borno. Thats why Tinubu picked Shettima as his VP!!

When you understand what I have just said you will understand why Obi's entry to the race has only served to help Tinubu and damaged Atiku. Atiku cannot win any state by a significant margin thanks to Obi, so his victories will be hollow (small margins) and will not contribute much to his cause, like I said he may need 6 or 7 states just to make up the damage in a state like Borno!!!

Ebubu3:
i dey in bed with your mama as i dey type am. Na because she cover my face with her huge breast na why I no read wetting u posted earlier on.

No vex dear

It’s no surprise someone with no brain cells is a grave digger who spends his time with dead people. I can’t imagine a living female would want anything to do with anyone with your IQ. You are brain dead, naturally you keep company with the dead!!

Naija4love:
dose people are fools? They never pray for better things to happen for this country.

Their thinking is so blinded by hatred

Ebubu3:
same way there are rice mills in Nigeria before imported rice was banned but what happened despite ?

20k extra on a bag of rice cos the mills were insufficient and weren’t in full capacity.

Idiot

You are clearly an eediot.. there is a difference between an existing SIM card plant that can manufacture more SIM cards than the country consumes and rice mills or rice farms that are not enough for the needs of the country.

Engage your brains if you have any!!!

Ebubu3:
The way they banned rice without being self sufficient.

Fake sims to takeover. Price of sim to increase by 3k extra.

To do Welcome back go become more expensive

Naijanascam:
Always banning without alternate plans

Clearly you Eediots did not see where he said there is a plant in Nigeria that is capable of manufacturing SIM cards? Is it Telcos that will supply fake cards?

4ward4:
Section 134 subsection 3b, is most likely to apply in this election...which will be a rerun and take us back to subsection 2

No it will take us to section 134 (5). Which is a 2 horse rerun and like I said, Obi cannot win a 2 horse race….full stop.

If you know the inside story of why Obi had to settle for Datti, you will understand why Obi cannot be president. It will be an achievement to even come 2nd.

4ward4:
Section 134 subsection 3b, is most likely to apply in this election...which will be a rerun and take us back to subsection 2

No it will take us to section 134 (5). Which is a 2 horse rerun and like I said, Obi cannot win a 2 horse race….full stop.

4ward4:
where do you get this From from?Last I checked you don't need to win a certain percentage in every states. But a certain percentage of the total Nigeria State..I think 2/3 of 36 , if I can still remember, which makes it 24. and currently you no party will be getting a full 24 states in next election because we having 4 major contenders...the winner with more states be it 15 or more will will be declared the winner.

I suggest you go and read sections 133 and 134 of the constitution. If you don’t have 25% of 24 states, you can’t be president irrespective of the number of candidates. Obi cannot get 25% of 24 states full stop!!!!

In the event that nobody has the required 25% in 24 states AND the FCT, it goes into a run off between the top 2 candidates and Obi can NEVER win a 2 horse race against Atiku or Tinubu! He cannot get 25% of core northern votes in a 2 horse or 4 horse race. There is a reason he couldn’t get any high profile Northerner to be his VP, I know what I know!

X

Coolsperm:
Even We Yoruba Christian's will never vote Tinubu on this his useless ticket, we are not fools

Speak for yourself! Because someone shares my faith does not mean he has my interests. Obasanjo is a Christian what did he do for the SW? Buhari a Muslim built Lagos Ibadan rail and express way, no one can take them away. It is a foolish yoruba that thinks that because Obi is a Christian, he will have the interests of the SW or will not favour the SE over the SW. Even in Anambra they will tell you how Obi discriminated against anglicans in favour of Catholics. Tell me how many yorubas are still Catholics? Understand that to a core Ibo Catholic, Pentecostals are fake Christians. Yorubas are now mainly Pentecostals, all Catholic Churches in the SW are full of Ibos.

[quote author=Omicron007 post=115258506][/quote]Peter Obi cannot win for 1 simple reason: he cannot get 25% in 24 states……impossible!!!!’

twentyfivekobo:
On the other hand, voting for corruption because experience is not the way forward.

You are free to vote as you choose, but don't complain about the effects .

I shall vote for Tinubu and I am prepared for the consequences good or bad, thank you very much!!! Don’t waste your time or mine try to to persuade me otherwise, if you cared to read or understand what what written, I already told you the others IMHO are worse or will be worse. If there was a better alternative I wouldn’t be voting for him. The only way I won’t vote for Tinubu is if there was a better alternative and there isn’t!!!! End of discussion!!!!!!

twentyfivekobo:
Right.



Whose K-leg is quite big.....mind you.

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So after complaining about K-Leg...you mention the guys with the biggest K leg of the lot....



I'm not with the obituarists...but let's be frank, TInubu and Atiku are a part of the reason why the youth are frustrated...keep that in mind. And when a youth is frustrated, it is rational that they won't vote for the cause of their frustrations...which include APC and PDP...the parties of one Tinubu and one Atiku.

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So, at one point, you rightly admit Nigeria needs change, but then you end up justifying voting for same old, same old. That's why things are as bad as they are ten, twenty, thirty years ago.....



Whose regime included a lot of TInubu appointees, including one who was put in charge of revenue generation...where he failed woefully.



So? Buhari was voted in based on change...and spent 6 months figuring out what to do. Buhari was brought in by the Tinubu YOU support.



So, vote corruption because ...experience? After you guys will come and complain about how they are stealing money again, and how the government is corrupt...and then with your own hands, vote a corrupt person into office?

You better not complain when the problems get worse.




I'm not an Obituarist...honestly Obituarists have blasted me well well, and yes, he is not that spectacular But...Obi did do a lot in infrastructure. Very much so. And Lagos, upon all the shouting about Tinubu..the tax to gdp ratio is still below the national average of 8.1%..plus he was not that spectacular either. His power project failed (in fairness, no one knew Enron was going to collapse a year later), and Lagos town is still a dump, outside the middle class bubble.

Obi too is not that great...I will give you that..



Yah, we made the same excuses for GEJ and Buhari...and see where we are now?

Nigerians awake..

I really hate people who say things like Nigerians awake….what makes you think your views are superior to mine? If you are going to tell me to awaken at least have someone with a spectacular tmrwck record to wow me!!!! We have a difference of opinion, I respect your decision to not vote for Tinubu, please respect my decision to vote for Tinubu. Let’s leave it at that. I do t have time to do this with every person who quotes me. I am tired of all this intolerance and nonsense. I’m voting for Tinubu, I’ve stated my reasons which is what this thread is about. I am not interested in converting any Atiku or Obi supporters…vote as you wish and leave me in peace!!!

The real problem if Nigeria are those intolerant people who in a democracy think that their views are the right views, must be shared by others and can’t respect that this is a democracy.

imustsaymymindo:
Well, I'd like to agree that we need someone that can hit the ground running asap in this current situation. However, none of the candidates has been in the Federal space for a while. Which federal matters has Tinubu been? He is only famous in the past years due to this current campaign, EndSars, Lagos, and Ambode's politicking. I see all of them finding it hard to hit the ground running when they eventually win. So, voting for a minority political party just like you wanted to do for Obi is a good one at the moment. A sort of change we can't afford now is a Muslim-Muslim ticket change in Nigeria's peculiar and dangerous time. If religion and ethnicity didn't matter and competent matters, why didn't Tinubu choose Osibanjo or a Southerner as the Vice President? That's too much of a change than a change in a political party. Not like many are devoted to the party anyway. Watch how many would defect to the Labor party if Obi wins.

I NEVER told you I was voting for Obi, I specifically said he is the worst and most dangerous option if your goal is development.

I have stated my reasons why I will be voting Tinubu. I am not here to convince anybody, I am not a campaign spokesman, I am not here to waste my time chest beating or making predictions on a landscape that is dynamic. I am also intelligent enough to know nobody is changing their minds based on interactions on Nairaland. It is your democratic right to vote as you wish for whatever reason.

The only thing I will say is APC lost Osun they didn’t bring the house down. Let the losers not bring the house down if they lose in 2023.

TheBeat:
You really can't hide your bigotry man. You probably hide in your village in osun and be making statement about a place you've never been to.
Tinubu made which Lagos?
What did he achieve with the huge resources in Lagos. He can't even stand Fashola and people like you would credit Fasholas achievement to the criminal. Collects Lagos revenue, install wife as senator, daughter as market head and even boots Ambode who your likes were praising as the best Governor then until the criminal rejected him. Tinubu was not better than Jakande and not better than Fashiola yet you call him father of Lagos. Lagos was the capital of Nigeria.

First of all, I will like you to show where I said Tinubu made Lagos? I have never said Any such. I am a big disciple of Awo, no Awo disciple can call Tinubu the messiah. Awo is the standard and Tinubu cannot lace his boots in terms of development.

However if you are capable of comprehension and are not the bigot you tag others, you will have noticed that the 1st thing I said was they all have K leg but IMHO it is a question of whose l led is less K and who can hit the ground running. It is IMHO a testament to the POOR caliber of opposition candidates that Tinubu despite his NUMEROUS FLAWS is still the best of the options. . It’s a testament to how poor the others are. To be frank, the only one I think stands out in terms of having both integrity and competence is Kwakwanso but he can’t win and I really don’t know what his economic blueprint is.

I am not here for an argument. You are free to state your reasons why you are voting for your candidate This thread is about why you will be voting for who you will be voting for. Tinubu is a flawed man, they are all flawed but IMHO he is still the best.
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You can state why you support your candidate without resorting to insults. Resorting to insults is usually a sign you have nothing rational in your candidate to sell. I am not going to get into the gutter over Tinubu, all I have said is he is IMHO the better option.

You are free to list the development achievements of your candidate if you feel any of the candidates are not bottom of the barrel options. However whenever I see someone who attacks others for their views and spends his time attacking without stating why he supports his candidate it’s usually because his reasons for supporting his candidate are rooted more in emotion, sentiment and not clarity of thought!!!

Many of you also need to understand that democracy means people will not agree with you and in fact that is the whole point!!!!!!!

A winner will emerge and we will all live with the consequences for good or for bad. Democracy is about the will of the majority…..many of you don’t understand that!!!! Your views and my views are irrelevant if they are not the views of the majority. Stop insulting people who don’t share your view and put forward logical arguments if you feel they are wrong. You certainly have done nothing to convince me not to vote Tinubu if you feel I am so wrong. If you feel I am so wrong, you should be convincing me of my error not insulting me. I have never seen anyone who changed his vote because he was insulted on social media!!!

nikky5:
The days are drawing nearer each passing day for the expiration of 2022. In 2023, who will you vote for? Why your preference for that candidate?

All of them have K-leg so my choice is simply who’s K-leg is least K and who can manage Nigeria in what will be a very trying period post 2023.

I’m voting for Tinubu. He has the experience and track record and has demonstrated a capacity to identify the issues, identify talent, put round pegs in round holes, a capacity to raise revenue which we will need, a capacity for innovation and thinking outside the box. He is not a tribalist or a religious bigot. Nigeria needs someone who can hit the ground running, Only Atiku and Tinubu have that quality. My major problem with Atiku is PDP and the type of characters in PDP.

Peter Obi IMHO is simply a con man taking advantage of Ibo sentiment and youth frustration, neither of which is rooted in rational thinking. His track record is mediocre at best, he has no meaningful or signature achievement as a 2 term governor during an economic boom!! If Nigeria weren’t in such dire circumstances I might have been tempted to vote for Obi/Datti just for change sake, just to send a message to the political class but Nigeria cannot afford amateurs and the inexperienced at this point . You don’t solve a problem by creating a bigger one….you only have to look at 8 yrs of Buhari, Nigeria cannot afford another president who will spend 4 yrs just figuring out how things work and what to do. IMHO Obi is the most dangerous option of the 3 for the future of Nigeria. A corrupt man who knows what he is doing and can grow the economy is 10x better than a so called clean man who hasn’t got a plan, a clue or the experience or the support in parliament to hit the ground running. Nigeria needs someone with a plan who can hit the ground running. I do not advocate corruption and embezzlement but I am a realist. A man who in 8 years increases IGR by 300% and steals 10% is better than a man who steals nothing but cannot raise IGR.
Whereas the former has created more money for public projects, the latter has done nothing.

At this point in time a thief who can build a road or send my child to school is better than a clean man who cannot improve my lot because he hasn’t got the ideas to raise revenue or a concrete plan. Nigeria is maxed out debt wise, if you cannot raise revenue you will have no money to execute your promises.

Mayeldah:
Conspiracy theory, that's all I can say.

There are facts and there are conspiracy theories.

OBJ installed Shagari, yaradua, Jonathan,Buhari. How did they do?

OBJ opposed Awo and Abiola and is now opposing Tinubu. Irrespective of your views on these 3 men, it’s supports the long held yoruba murmurs that OBJ will not support anyone especially a yoruba that will outshine him

Sunday2021:
oh my God! So Benue and plateau are not northern States? Pls just list the 6 geo political zones we have in Nigeria. Pls just give that your empty skull to skull miners since there is no brain in it.
Just mention the six geo political zones.

You are a slowpoke!!! Benue and plateaue. Are predominantly Christian states. So predominantly Christian that in both states both their governors and deputy governors are Christians. Why do t you give examples of Bauchi and Adamawa where the people in question are from? My advice to you is not to have any children so you don’t pass your inherited dunce gene to your offspring and populate the world with retards!!!

Sunday2021:
now I know iam talking with an idiot. tell me who endorsed Lalong before he won two terms, how many Muslims endorse Ortom before he won. Some of you sit down in one village of ekiti state but can come online to argue with us about what is happening in our zones. I believe you had never been to Jos, Jalingo, southern kaduna, Benue, Gombe etc.
we shall see! Tinubu will realize his mistake when it was already too late.

Now you are proving you really should have been aborted. Are Benue and Plateau predominantly muslim states? Are Plataeu and benue Northern states or Middle belt states? How daft can you get? Even if your father failed to wear a condom and your mother failed to abort you at least try for yourself and educate yourself.

Wike is no fool. Right now Wike is looking for soft landing and whomever or whichever party will protect him once his immunity expires in 2023. He knows these 2 jokers can’t help him, people that can’t even win their own polling units!!!

Sunday2021:
I hate arguing with fools like you. you trying to tell your fellow idiots that Dogara was not chosen by Tinubu because dogara don't have enough votes in his local govt. now I ask you how many votes did Osinbajo local govt give to Buhari that made Buhari to pick him as VP.
the whole south west gave Buhari less than 3 million votes but Buhari still pick a Yoruba man as his VP.
I don't know if your foolishness will allow you to Google the 2019 election results, you would have realized that Buhari doesn't need your Yoruba votes to win his election.
next time you want to insult online, first go and ask your mother who is your real father.

You are a slowpoke because you don’t have the intellectual capacity to realize that Osinbajo’s importance in getting southern votes is not important whereas Dogoras ability to get Northern votes is critical. SW did not vote for Buhari because of Osinbajo but the north will vote for APC based on who is his Northern VP candidate. They are not the same. You are arguing against yourself, if you cannot see that you need to go to your mother and tell her off for not using a condom when she had sex with your father because. I don’t know what else can explain your lack of intelligence!!!!

Osinbajo is irrelevant politically as was displayed in the primaries. He couldn’t even come 2nd. Even Amaechi trashed him! So using Osinbajo as an example is senseless and stupidity. It is arguing against yourself and just highlights Dogora, and Lawal as political lightweights just like Osinbajo!!!!!

All these Northern Christians are political lightweights. That’s the reality of our politics like it or not…they can’t win elections in their own zones without the endorsement of their Muslim counterparts !!!!

Yungmakaveli01:
Just take a glance on the piece of shit you wrote here.
All the candidate OBJ has ever supported might have failed not excluding himself. But you see the only one Tinibu ever supported at national level which i believe you know, was a collosal failure, and if you think Tinubu at his present age would perform any better than Buhari then i want u to think again.
I won't throw shades at you because you're not supporting the candidate i'm supporting but i believe you want a better Nigeria. And i know for sure that though nothing is guaranteed that one of the candidate is more qualified to rule Nigeria and i know u know who that candidate is and he is the person i'll vote for.
I'll choose the candidate that has taken a bold step not to bribe any delegate in aquisition of his presidential ticket.
I'll choose the candidate that never held the state he governed to ransom even after leaving office.
I'll choose the candidate that choose to run for the presidency not just because he believes that it's his turn to be president.
I'll choose the candidate that majority of Educated Nigerian youths are all glamouring for.
And lastly i don't want to be among the 50m youths that will be recriuted into the army and been fed cassava and agbado on a daily why the children of the proposer of this plan are not even residing in Nigeria.
Imagine recriuting 50m youths into the army at this age when other countries are already thinking of ways to build robots that will serve as armies.

Try and stay on point, I simply said an endorsement from Obasanjo has historically spelt doom for this country, this is a fact, every bad president since Obasanjo left office has had the endorsement of Obasanjo, even Buhari. If there has been a good president endorsed by Obasanjo please feel free to share his name otherwise I am not interested in who you are supporting or here to talk about who I am voting for. Stay on topic, the topic is Obasanjo!!! Obasanjo has endorsed EVERY civilian president since 1979 that actually ascended to power and they have ALL been failures!!!

The reality of the 3 front runners is that no supporter is in any position to criticize any of the other candidates so just support your candidate and let us have peace. All I said is it is a historical fact that anyone Obasanjo endorses always fails. And by the way he had this reputation in yoruba land even before the return of democracy in 1999.

They can’t win elections

Sunday2021:
how many votes did Osinbajo local govt provides for APC? how many votes does the whole south west give to Buhari when he gave you VP?
since he thought that sidelining the northern christians will make him win, we shall see.

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If you had any brain cells you would realize you are arguing against yourself and making my point for me.

The atm should have the pictures of whoever cleared her account

Sunday2021:
You are confused. Our problem is not about Muslim president but about balance in the presidency. you cannot expect us to be happy with a candidate that says we are incompetent.
if Tinubu succeed Buhari it will mean a Muslim handling over to another Muslim, that is not a problem but in a situation where the president, vice president, CJN, Senate president, speaker of the house, party chairman are all Muslims shows that evil is coming.

Abeg commot. It is not a problem because you are a PDP supporter. You have to be able to win elections to show your competence. The job of a political party is to win elections, just like Obi supporters will soon find out, if you can’t win elections all your noise is just that….noise! Below are the 3 most influential northern christians in APC, compare with Shettima and it’s a no brained except for the brain dead. If you cannot even win in your ward why would anyone choose you as VP?

Tinubu chose Shettima for the same reason PDP chose Atiku… it is the responsibility of a party to put forward your best option of winning. Nigeria is the most religious country on earth but look at it….is this a country of God fearing people? Awon Ode jati jati!!!!

Mayeldah:
Trash! Who told you Awo and MKO would have done better?

If you don’t know what Awo did in just 5 years in office that still endure 63 years after he left office, then you are not worthy of any further responses. As for MKO, the thought of a fellow Egba man surpassing him is unfathomable to OBJ. Like I said you are not yoruba, if you are yoruba you won’t be asking. There is a reason Obasanjo built his house at the hilltop of Abeokuta overlooking the town, if you know you know. As far as OBJ is concerned no yoruba man will surpass him!!!!

Anything OBJ is a curse!! Go ahead and vote whoever OBJ is endorsing, I am not trying to stop you but his record of leaders/ successors he endorsed is there and don’t say you weren’t warned!!!!

Obasanjo has never suppported anyone he knows will outperform him. In 1979 he supported Shagari….he was a disaster! In 2007, he supported Yaradua, we know how that ended, in 2015 he supported Buhari, now he is supporting Obi. He did not support Awo and he did not support MKO.


If Obasanjo is supporting anyone be rest assured that person will be a disaster. Obasanjo will not see someone who will perform and suppprt him because to do so will be to support someone who will outshine him.

You may think this is BS but we in the SW have always known this about OBJ, that’s why we didn’t vote for him in 1999.

Bush illiterates, that is not a camera!