₦airaland Forum

Roger3D:
You cant totally place the responsibility of the concentration of power at the center on Ironsi alone. Remember that the structural hierarchy of the military and its command structure is highly centralized. I doubt if there has been any military government in modern times that can operate a government with a weak center

stcool:
I stopped using this your word in NSE....be prepared to exit anytime anywhere anyhow.

Godlylifeoneart:
MARKETS ARE DRIVEN BY THE EMOTIONS OF THE CROWD
If you can keep your head when all about you

Are losing theirs and blaming it on the Fed;

But make allowance for their shouting dread;

If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,

Or, surrounded by nonsense, don’t deal in nonsense,

Or, inundated [by] indicators, scoff at what they’re indicating,

And cherish the thought that uncertainty is immense;

If you can fill the unforgiving minute

With sixty seconds’ worth of resolve right to the end —

Yours is the market and everything that’s in it,

And – which is more – you’ll be an Investor, my friend!

– American journalist Jason Zweig, with apologies to Rudyard Kipling (inspired by his poem If, written circa 1895)
For most animals, congregating in large numbers is generally a good idea. Large numbers offer protection from adversaries. Large numbers hunt more effectively. In large groups, the strong help protect the weak. The presence of large numbers can also be a useful decision-making tool – after all, if large numbers are eating a particular foodstuff, it’s unlikely to be harmful. Being part of a crowd is a pretty good survival strategy for most animals.

In nature, voting – or collective decision-making – works. The most popular strategies, such as where to live, where to forage and what foodstuffs to eat or avoid, have most likely proven to be winning strategies. Investing is different. Over time, investments do not respond to votes. Popularity does not generally indicate success. Rather, markets are weighing machines. They take information from diverse sources, weight it all up, and come to a conclusion regarding the value of an investment on a daily basis – and then set a price for it according to that judgement.

People strive to make their world comprehensible, predictable, and rewarding, but their locus of control extends only so far. No matter who you are, what you do, or the resources you have at your disposal, you have to learn to live with uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity, and fear of the unknown. That’s the cause of our discontent: we want to be assured of the outcome before we invest.
– Josh Kaufman, author of How To Fight a Hydra
Human beings also instinctively herd together. Human beings hate uncertainty. We like knowing the ‘truth’, and being in a crowd makes us feel like we have discovered it. After all, if there are so many of us here, how can we possibly all be wrong?

In the short term, popularity can set the price of an asset. After all, if the herd decides to buy something, the price/value relationship becomes irrelevant and a higher price is generally taken to be a good sign – it denotes widespread acceptance. And the herd is always right, right?

The problem with this is that the real outcome of our investment decisions is ultimately not determined by what the crowd thinks or says. Rather, the outcome is determined by the difference between the price paid for an asset, and all the future cash flows you will receive in return. In other words, it’s value. So the crowd can set the price of an investment, but once we have bought and paid for the investment, it is the underlying value that will determine the outcome.

If we accept that there is a difference between how prices are determined and what comprises the actual value of an investment, we can then think more clearly about what the determinants of a successful investment decision might be.

Firstly, the cash flows of most assets are reasonably stable. Think about renting out a property. There might be the odd vacancy where no rent is received, but over a cycle rental income is fairly predictable – and not hugely variable. Company earnings might be a bit more volatile, but have a similar pattern. And if the cash flows are fairly stable, it follows that their present value must also be reasonably stable.

What is not stable is the share price, or the crowd’s estimate of the value. More precisely, in the short term, markets are driven by the emotions of the crowds. And emotional crowds are not very rational. It is this ‘irrationality’ that causes share prices to diverge – often significantly – from the value of the investment, on both the upside and the downside.

Good investment opportunities are created when share prices are below the values of the assets.

This leaves us with an interesting conundrum. To be a successful human being, one is well-advised to stick with the crowd. It is safer and smarter. But to be a successful investor one often has to stay away from the crowd, or act differently to the crowd. When the crowd is negative, driving the prices of assets down, it can be a good buying opportunity. Conversely, when the crowd is positive, driving the prices of assets up, it can be a good selling opportunity.

Of course the best buying and selling opportunities don’t come around all that often.

Great investing requires a lot of delayed gratification. It’s waiting that helps you as an investor, and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait. If you didn’t get the deferred-gratification gene, you’ve got to work very hard to overcome that.
– Charlie Munger, vice chair of Berkshire Hathaway
The market is filled with information that ultimately doesn’t directly impact the underlying valuations of companies. We all quite enjoy discussing the latest GDP or inflation numbers, complaining about the most recent political faux pas, or even analysing arcane numbers like US non-farm payrolls (what is that, even?). But does this really assist us in making better investment decisions?

These ‘talking points’ all effectively amount to one thing: noise. We may feel that trying to wrap our heads around them reduces uncertainty, but all this amounts to is a false sense of comfort. They are all thinly veiled attempts to forecast or anticipate the future, which is unknowable and impossible to determine. The fact that this truth makes us human beings uncomfortable does not make it any less true.

Instead of speculating about what the future may look like – something that is unduly stressful because it is so hard – surely it makes sense to focus on the things we know to be true already? Things like currencies depreciating in line with inflation differentials over time, economies growing at low single digits above inflation over time, earnings growth of companies being quite closely linked to economic growth over time, equity returns being closely linked to the long-term earnings growth of companies. Instead of focusing on the variation of share prices, which is extremely hard to anticipate, we should focus on the things we know to be fairly stable – and use oscillating share prices as an opportunity to capitalise on this knowledge.

If that sounds simple, it is.

It is not our inability to understand what we need to do that gets us into trouble, it is our inability to implement Munger’s concept of delayed gratification. The difficult thing is to do nothing while we wait for these inevitable opportunities.

I spend about half of my time wondering why I have so much in stocks, and about half wondering why I have so little.
– Jack Bogle, founder and retired CEO of Vanguard
The fact is, no one knows what the future holds. But allocating assets in a sensible way more often means investing away from the crowd, being patient, not having unrealistic expectations and not letting market noise distract or upset you. If you stick to these principles, you have the formula for a successful strategy to get through volatile and uncertain times. Of course, in the short term, it might feel like you are incorrectly positioned for what is going on in the market – take comfort that even Jack Bogle feels uncomfortable most of the time! But a sensible strategy will work out just fine
culled from cnbc... Modified by me

GonFreecss1:
Thank you very much. I used to think people in the cryptocurrency world are pure speculators, but coming here has shown me that speculators are everywhere. Of what use is TA, if an announcement or rumour about a company good or bad news comes out? How will TA help?

If a company is making money or a good business, I don't care how bad things want to get in the stock market, it's the smart thing to buy more.

I mean does it make sense? A company averages 50Kobo EPS when it was 2 naira. Then it becomes 1 naira, and still maintains the 50Kobo EPS. Lol! Of course I would fucking buy more if the other metrics are okay.

I will say this again, perspective is your friend. If land was sold like stocks on a screen, people would behave the same way they behave with stocks. Emotion, especially fear is a very funny thing. Greed and elation is another funny one. Lol, everyone quotes the Warren Buffet stuff like it's easy. (Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy), but the truth is it is easier said than done. The problem is many of you invest your whole life savings. How will you sleep well when you do that? The best time to have invested was in that 2016/2017 period, beginning of this year was a bad time. This same thing happened in the cryptocurrency world, they kept warning people, but they never listened.

The truth of the matter is people are more comfortable investing their money when everything is going up, but get scared and sell when everything is going down. Typical buy high, sell low.

Forget all the TA stuff. People who make money here are the emotionally balanced people. Not people who react to fear or greed, or people who follow the crowd or trend. You will never make money doing what everyone else is doing.

There is a reason Warren Buffett is one of the richest guys out there. He was not a trader, he is an investor. Has he made mistakes? Yes, but he has consistently beat the market overall.

rebekah2011:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/24364_UNITY_BANK_PLC_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_NOVEMBER_2018.pdf

CBN is culpable in the banks that fail in this Country. Unity is gone.

Mpeace:
this is not good at all. Eps drop from 34k to 25kobo. Hmm

onegentleguy:
A very good morning to u all.
Today marks the 1st working day of the last 3 days of the month of October. But it also marks the day I was born.
...it's my B^{Oct 29} DAY !!
Pls help me thank GOD for his grace and mercy in my life.

Am not a very fanatic fellow but pls permit me to dedicate this song to all October born here;

Amazing grace, amazing grace, is the story of my life.
is NOT by power, is NOT by might, is by the SPIRIT of the lord !!
is NOT by hard work, is NOT by skill, Devine help is what I enjoy !!
Am not afraid, of tomorrow, I have grace, grace grace. Everywhere that I go, everything that I do, all I see is grace.
Everywhere that I go, everything that I do, all I see is grace.
Grace grace ...I see grace. Grace grace ...all I see is grace !!
Grace grace ...I see grace. Grace grace ...all I see is grace !!

Grace grace !! ...Grace grace ...oooh !! Grace grace ...all I see is graaaaaaaace. ALL I SEE IS GRACE.

Cheers !!

Favor99:
@Autojosh
Exactly! There are so many roads worse than this throughout Nigeria, but because its Edo State, some wicked set of tribalists want to put this front page. Why not show the bad roads in other parts of Nigeria and put that front page. Whats so special about this.
An ordinary armed robbers that burgle houses and rob people throughout the 36 states, if it happens in the other 35 states they don't put it front page, but if it happens in Edo this wicked tribalists will paste it front page.

The kind of negative news about Edo that they put front page is too ordinary and is common across many states.
They just want to put a disporportinate amount of negative news about Edo.

Nigeria you are being divided anyhow by a wicked set of people and co-consipirators and Nigerian lackeys to the enemy

gidgiddy:
Then that means that Nigeria is illegal. It was a military man called Feredrick Lugard who created Nigeria in.1914 without the permission of the people. The 36 states of Nigeria and Abuja were the creation of the military. Nigeria and it's structure is a creation of military men. It is time to call for Nigeria to be dissolved

gidgiddy:
Aburi accord was illegal? Why? Wasn't it the military leaders that met in Aburi and decided on the future? If confederation is strange to Nigeria because we never practiced then so is the current system we practice now. There was a time there were no 36 states and Abuja but we survived.


The Aburi agreement is a reminder to anyone who is a student of Nigerian history that the North will never agree to Nigeria being restructured

ItsMeAboki:
It is funny how southerners, who were the architects of the Unitary System they are currently complaining about, would shamelessly turn around and blame northerners for unduly benefiting from it - as if to say northerners wrong to have adapted and excelled better under a system which southerners had violently thrust upon them.

Yes indeed; southerners were and still are chronic goalpost shifters, often chopping and changing the rules whenever they fail to grab power at the centre:
- they ditched our nascent democracy, when they couldn't win through the ballot box, in favour of military dictatorship; introduced geopolitical zones which effectively accommodates and legitimises their obnoxious tribal politics.
- they also introduced rotational presidency at the expense of free choice (of candidates) in a true democracy.
- as if that is not enough, they now want to take us over 50 years back to the 1962 constitution, which they had earlier destroyed and rejected in their 1966 coup - apparently, because northerners are fairing better under the current system (talk of spitefulness).

ItsMeAboki:
Typical southerner and southern hypocrisy; saying one thing and meaning another.

How can you suggest that the proponents of the 1962 were considering the current 36 states as direct substitutes for the former 3 regions in their proposal; knowing fully well that a constitution is a very specific and highly technical document, intentionally designed that way to protect it from loose or glib interpretation.

Tanko Yakassai was aware of the absurdity of this proposal and therefore correct to draw attention to the practical limitations of adopting it; while pointing out the alternative route towards it - which is constitutional amendment, an ongoing functional process already in place from the creation of this country till date; but which our dishonest southern co-travellers wish to circumvent in their usual pattern of shifting the goalpost by changing the rules midway through the game.

The real beneficiaries of One Nigeria know themselves; neither is the north desperate for the country not to break up (it was the 1st region to want to opt out in 1966); recently the Lamido of Adamawa maintained that position for the north when he spoke at the 2014 National Conference; again Tanko Yakassai is currently hinting the same when he recommended for the north to start consulting with its neighbouring border countries e.g. Niger, Cameroon etc.
.

justtoodark:
you sound so silly to me.....

justtoodark:
you are still talking rubbish...shey somebody shitt in your brain....??

Ovamboland:
I just had to point out the fallacies and inaccuracies in your nicely written story at to set the record straight.

1st bold, Ibos have aligned with the North at least 4 times in national elections where a Southerner could have come out winner or actually came second. All that was needed to win was Ibo support and it was withrawn on the four occassions. 1960, 1979, 1983 and,1993 are those occassions.
The only times Yoruba aligned with North that could deny south of anything was during the civil war and 2015.

2. You are the first Ibo man I would encounter on Nairaland arguing from this perspective. ibo left Ahmadu Bello who called his party Northern people's Congress and did not bother to campaign outside the North, to attack and label as founder of tribal politics an Awolowo who wanted to take his new party nationwide and campaign as such. Bello had so much disdain for Nigeria that he refused to be it's first Prime Minister but choose his boy to occupy the position, but most Ibo see him as more nationalist than Awolowo. It seems you just threw that in to support you coup to install Awo theory.

3rd bold, there's no evidence Azikiwe was ever a target,
That he had foreknowledge is not in doubt but chose to save only his own skin is treasonous enough. Non of his high ranking party members or associates was arrested or questioned not to talk of elimination.

justtoodark:
insult......

justtoodark:
you cant tell me that many knew what was going on in the world after independence......thats rubbish talks.....

justtoodark:
back then we were still fresh...very few even understood what was going on around them....the more people know,the more they will get angry....life is not fair to anybody.....

justtoodark:
well...i still think its a dangerous idea....central maybe slow but they steadily move to the problem....

regionalism can be dangerous than you think.....

we already have boko haram to combat,who are actualy our brothers and sisters too....the conflict started because of a simple borehole in the north.....conflicts will always be their between human beings,but how we settle it is important....

our old african model of settling disputs is damaged.....better dont risk giving power to unhappy people now....

justtoodark:
i think central is better for nigeria....giving states more power is dangerous......

we witnessed how quick the south east jumped on the ipob wagoon.....

its too dangerous to try.....

if weapons fall in this type of peoples hands,then good night nigeria........

justtoodark:
i still think its a bad idea.....its tempting though.....

regional works very well with other nations,but am not sure it will work well with nigeria.....

we have too much fractions in nigeria....

its a big risk....

ItsMeAboki:
Quite on the contrary; that accolade seems to belong to you, because Tanko Yakassai was very clear in what he said and in equally making a clear distinction between them by drawing attention to the constitutional/practical dilemma of reverting back to the 1962 constitution.

His words:
“Some people are advocating we should adopt the 1962 Constitution. To the best of my knowledge, the 1962 Constitution recognised four regions. Now we have six geo-political regions. But they failed to explain which regions should be retained or merged.”

Icon79:
Restructuring is a Yoruba agenda? Is this man for real

Restructuring is the Igbo agenda presented during the Aburi meeting by Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu. And these ignorant uninformed mugus are the people running things in Nigeria? Can you see why Nigeria would forever remain a zoo


O pari

omoharry:
Oga the present system sulks...you want me to start telling you how restructuring will work..? really?..please go back to all the conferences that have be held in the past and you will find fantastic ideas of how Nigeria be restructured and even a break down of it was in the last concluded conference..even if it need some amendment..it shows how we can come out of the hell hole you and your peopel still consider as normal thing..it is only a northerner than will say what you just said.."Restructuring means different things to different people and will never solve the problems of Nigerians".. let every federating region start controlling their resources and manage their affairs such as power, security,health,education etc.. then pay some percentage to the federal govt..the purpose is to reduce the power at the center which is not effective...it breed laziness..state governors do not think of any other ways to generate IGR than to wait for monthly handout year in year out without any vision and purpose in life for the people of their state..security nko..we go wait for Buhari to give a nod before IG of police can heed to the call of the governor in his troubled state.by then, terrible damaged must have happened.while the perpetrators are left off the hook.yet you are telling me restructuring means different things to different people..you know all these things but you are just pretending and following the backwagon of your kinsmen...who don have the interested of the masses..and would rather they remain uneducated, ignorant and poor..in their life time...
Oga. weither you guys like it or not..it will happen and when it does..if your people feel you dont want to restructure then you can join your brothers in the Sahel regions...because the south really need to move forward and we do not want people that do not understand us to pull us back.hiding your head in the sand all the time when development issue are on ground is not smart at all..that is what you guys do.

Jejebabaa:
I laughed in Chinese when people compared some quotes written by an American who invests purely on USA stocks and applied such quote to Nigerian stocks who happens to be an emerging market with currency risks despite the same Warren Buffet warning investors about investing in Emerging markets. If your portfolio/stock is down by 50%, u will need 100% gain to break even and not to even talk of back to profit.
It's best to run first and ask questions later if a war is coming.

mandarin:
I've always been an advocate of regionalism in which the current geopolitical zones will form the foundation. I advocate for ten regions which will function as federating autonomous states and a unicamera parliament in Abuja led by a Prime Minister elected by Parliamentarians.
With the exception of Southern Kaduna, all states in Northwest can form a region and evolve internal structures for themselves, fix their headquarter wherever and engage in their own form of developmental programs.

The Northeast can also involve into a state with head quater wherever and emerge as their own economic force.

The Northcentral can emerge as two to cover all the minorities, the western and eastern areas of the north central including southern kaduna.

The southwest and come Yoruba kinsmen in Kogi, kwara and Akoko Edo, itsekiri can evolve as one region/state too.

The southeast states and igbo kinsmen willing in the south south can evolve into a region just like the Bendel region of Edo and Delta while the rest of Niger Delta can also be a region.

I believe this is one of the critical keys to political and socioeconomic growth of Nigeria.

6Ebisco:
Primate Elijah Ayodele, founder and spiritual leader of INRI Evangelical Spiritual Church, Lagos State, has described the All Progressives Congress, APC, as an occult.

He said the ruling party was deceiving Nigerians, adding that its style of democracy will break Nigeria.

The Prophet who spoke in an interview with the Sun, also said the country was on a time bomb, adding that those who joined the APC did so for favour.

He said the 2019 election will be dicey, urging Nigerians to pray that it holds.

His words, “Nigeria is sitting on a time bomb, Buhari cannot fight corruption; if he is not corrupt one way or the other, he has followed a corrupt party. I don’t want to mention anybody’s name.

“If you’re saying a particular person is corrupt and because of that you send EFCC after that person or if somebody does not support your agenda, you send the anti-graft agency after him, that is not the best way.

“Nigeria is sitting on a time bomb; let’s hope that the election will be conducted the same time, next year, because the election will be a bit dicey, more so, President Buhari cannot take Nigeria to the promised land.

“This is because the ruling party is creating tension; They do not want anybody that criticises them; they are bitter on any one that talks about them; they try to weaken the PDP; when they were in opposition party, they were criticising, and doing all sorts of things but because somebody is trying to put them on their toes, even from the Senate, they start fighting.

“I am not saying that they should like me, but they are not laying any precedent for the youth; what they are showing the youth is bitterness and they are not ready to help the youth to grow. They just wan to re-circle leaders.

“Anybody defecting to the ruling party is doing so because he wants favour, either because he is corrupt, and wants to be protected.

“The ruling party is deceiving Nigerians, and its style of democracy will break Nigeria. Resource control will break Nigeria and tribalism will fuel our wrath.

“People defecting to APC do not like the party, and the party itself is creating more problems for themselves, so Buhari’s second term is not too certain.

“The ruling party is an occult. If I were the President, anybody that defects to my party will be the first person to be sent to jail. The ruling party will destroy this democracy; our democracy is at risk.

“Whoever that wants to contest against them, they frown at it because they don’t want anybody to contest against them; these are the things they are doing.

“I don’t think God is happy with Nigeria, nor its leaders; because of the blood that has been used as sacrifice, the country is not moving forward.”

http://www.mcebisco.com.ng/2018/09/2019-election-what-apc-will-do-to.html

Agbalowomeri:
He is referring to the original mercy

perfectgen:
Such is life; I somewhat liked the guy and saw him as an astute business man and being a keeper of stocks, I guess the haircut fits me well. FO better now; what will you say of Intercontinental and Oceanic bank that turned full Afro to bald head; I am learning never to do long term stock investment anymore inasmuch it us NSE

arduino:
Aside few people in this thread many of us were on the NSE pre-2007/2008 and also share the same experience as you. I still have plenty units of Multiverse Resources, Daar Communication, Beco Petroleum, Equity Assurance etc. in my portfolio as evidence that I fully participated in the 2007/8 madness.
I have counted my losses (NSE Tuition Fees according to Oga wanaj$$$) and moved on.