₦airaland Forum

patrickmuf:
If that Plateau result is true then Obi is in with a strong chance especially when you consider the fact that Edo, FCT, Benue, Taraba, Cross River, Imo, Anambra, Ebonyi are yet to come but the biggest problem is getting 25% of 2/3rd of the states...

A lot of twist and turns to come.

nihilistjnr:
You're forgetting Shettima is on the ballot. Why do you think Tinubu went for Muslim-Muslim ticket.

Let's not pretend that this election in Nigeria is not voted primarily on Ethnic lines, if not all 3 candidates would not be runnning a North-South combo.

Each party hopes to nab the Principal's ethnic\regional vote first, then the Vice's ethnic\regional vote next.
After that, it's religion on both sides.

You cannot look at the results we're seeing right now, and not see primarily ethnic driven voting patterns.

This is the biggest reason why Nigeria needs to breakup, and give us a chance to move away from North/South, Christian/Muslim ticket permutations to genuinely Issue-based campaigns.

A40:
You dey mind the hypocrites

The funny thing is for me it's not even about tribe or religion. I don't believe anything good can come out of APC or Tinubu x Shettima. They will take Nigeria backward even more than Buhari

Unlimited22:
The guy is just funny. Him and Joezinho.

Like say if everybody vote Along tribal lines anybody South of the Niger and Benue will ever rule the country.

ribbit:
See as dem vote for Enugu.

Woke mumuluabis will be the end of us

chrisooblog:
Surprised? maybe not the feelers I got from people around me indicated it might go that way but I thought maybe APC had a solid base of voters to counter and apparently it wasn't enough.

raumdeuter:
Yebariba samboribobo

Ibime:
A lot will be overturned

raumdeuter:
There was a reason I didn't take Lagos bet from anyone but on the whole of Nigeria

DissTroy:
At exactly 12:53PM Nigerian time today, the INEC Chairman boldly said results from transmitted from polling units are nor as important as the results collated MANUALLY at the State Electoral Commissioner.

Given they have been using soread sheets, what this means is, if the State REC can manipulate the results he/she writes manually, it is more valid than the results you all saw at the polling unit.

EmaPrince , Itsrm , Livelongandprospa and the others, now you know why results are being manupuated in many States.

Donjazet2:
Labor clinches 2 senate seats in plateau!

Omo!!!!
7 labor senators so far.

54 house of reps so far!

But they mocked us and they mocked us!
They said we were a tiny party and worse they CONTINUE to underrate us.

Obi is leading with 450 k votes in taraba state now.

The structureless party!!

liveLongNprospa:
Itsrm... Make we wait INEc

liveLongNprospa:
Hence why u said we wait for INEC.. But what if it's not fake

liveLongNprospa:
My guy.. I say the cooking today..

Last last all of us go accept atiku as president.

liveLongNprospa:
Oasis003 let us wait for INEC sha

OasisX:


Second time an opposition party is winning Lagos in the Presidential election, after 2011 where PDP had 1.2m votes vs 427,000 for the ruling ACN.

afrodoc2:
Danger averted

liveLongNprospa:
APC -502,676
LP- 582,454

LP wins Lagos



This result is freaking annoying and I look forward to the real results

liveLongNprospa:
Lmao how do you think he has been getting his projections nau? 🤣🤣

chrisooblog:
I didn't quite get the names of the 2 they have declared but they just stepped both of them down so they can go and sort out some figures.

nihilistjnr:
He no try for if they are fake sha.

I thought he was posting the results as they were being announced

Oasis003:


I am following one of Wike Aides on twitter.

nihilistjnr:
You dey post fake result?

liveLongNprospa:
Itsrm

Oyigbo

chrisooblog:
I think you might be right o watching the live announcement of result on Channels TV. APC just won another LG.

chrisooblog:
This is funny Tinubu might win the presidential election but won't win Kano, Lagos and Rivers mad o

The opposition really dropped the ball APC was there for the taking.

Almajirihunter:
True he’s marginally just edging Tinubu, when I first read the headline in kaduna pdp took 3 LGA so far and Lp 2 with APC 0, I further went to check and saw that APC despite not winning any so far has higher votes than LP

VoteTinubu2023:
I don tire to explain.

Electoral Mathematics is just flying over their head.

As it stands, Atiku has some big deficit to fill up before he can even think of going on the offensive.

Oasis003:


Do the maths bruh, its basic. 1/4 of total valid votes.

patrickmuf:
In Cross River, they are 3 popular leaders across the 3 Senatorial districts...In the South, it's Prince Otu, in the Central, it's Owan Eno and in the North, it's Jarigbe...It's difficult to beat any of them in a free and fair elections...

Back to your question, Sandy is not a match for Prince Otu but he stands a chance. I will go ahead to give you factors that comes into play for Sandy and against Sandy...

Sandy stands a chances for the following reasons:

1. A lot of folks are not happy with the government of Ayade and in extension the APC so, they believe that a Sandy government will see Ayade face the law for his many attrocities...

2. Ayade just lost his bid to return to the senate. This alone is a moral booster for the PDP in the State.

Factors working against Sandy includes:

1. His emergence alters the zoning formula in the state. Donald Duke (South) did 8 years, Liyel Imoke (Central) did 8 years and Ayade (North) would have done 8 years in a couple of months time so, logically it should return to South but Sandy through Wike hijacked the PDP ticket and this made Liyel Imoke very angry thus Sandy doesn't even control the entirety of the Central Senatorial district as Liyel and his boys are still angry that he denied Sen. Gershom Bassey (South) the PDP ticket even though some of us blame the Southern PDP aspirants for not coming up with a consensus hence they shared their votes giving Sandy the upper hand.

The South is united to deliver Prince Otu (APC) while the Central is split (Sandy has to find a way to get Liyel on his side), the North with Jarigbe will likely deliver PDP as they are very angry with their son (Ayade) and anything that has to do with him.

2. Sandy is also seen as a Wike lackey which might negatively affect his chances if the APC capitalizes on it...

So, you see that when of this factors come into play it is difficult to predict how it will pan out. Sandy will win if he can get all the PDP stakeholders in the Central on the same board because with Jarigbe in the North PDP will easily coast home.