₦airaland Forum

User09:
Can anyone else translate the bolded?

Or am I reading something else. At the end of the day, we all see what we want to see.

But I'll tell you one thing, thinking the CBN governor will tell actual lies to defend something that is already it's core mandate is next level propaganda.

The guy knows speculators are like hawks watching the market. Any unbiased person knows what he's saying but again I'll leave you to your convictions

Now you understand his motivation for not coming out clean


Be it as it may, he said just enough to confirm what we already know.

Bluelines69:
Musiala, what a player he’s running the game

He's such a joy to watch. Hate that I don't get to watch him week in week out.

OasisX:


.....where is your evidence that he is telling lies?! Lord said he has hurriedly borrowed $600m to boost the foreign reserve and you believe?! LOL!

The evidence is in the video

User09:
No he didn't

Please watch it again. Infact from the 3:52 minute, he explicitly said " The shift in the reserves has nothing to do with defending the Naira"

What else do you want him to say again. Perhaps he talked about intention which signals to me that they aren't at the moment but may have to if it calls for it

But he was very clear that the intention is a liquid transparent and a willing buyer and seller market determining the price

Lol, here's your bias coming into play.

Watch it again. This was what he said. "The shift in the reserves has little or nothing to do with defending the naira"

How else do you expect him to spell it out ?

Infact, the overall tone is about what he hopes to achieve and not what is currently happening.

OasisX:


.....Itsrm-sama, did you actually watch it at all?! He clearly mentioned debt settlements as part of reasons for the depletion. Only intervention that has to do with Naira is his dealings with BDCs.

Well, expect to see plus $600m to current foreign reserve. LOL!

What debt settlement?

If he's lying about using 2.1bn to settle debts, what's to say he's not lying about BDCs being his only intervention.

LordAdam16:
Don't mind these folks.
I'm truly taken aback by the fierce partisanship introduced into the economic space.

Dude kept talking about intentions.
Tell us what you are doing, you're yapping about intentions and future.

You're not using the reserves to defend the naira but you went to the US to beg for 600m to add to the reserves "between yesterday and today".
Yesterday's total volume in the NAFEM is less than 250m. Today is less than 200m.
So how are you able to add $600m in two days. Or is there a shadow market besides the official NAFEM window?

He should tell us what foreign debt Buhari and Tinubu took last year to drive up our debt service payments that'd make us expend 2B in less than a month.

We all know what they're doing, but they've sworn not to be truthful.

-Lord

You caught that too. Expected him to mention the specific debt repayment that depleted reserves by 2.1bn in 30 days but he just glossed over it saying it happens all over the world.

Seeing the joy with which Oasisx shared the video, I expected more

"I perceive a future where we really don't need to intervene"

Tells me all I need to hear.

larride:
FPI do not go into the foreign reserves, does it?

CBN has not hidden any of their moves, when they are selling $ to BDC at the lowest previous day rate, they publish a circular to that effect.

March is the end of the 1st quarter, no one is privy to the debt obligations due in Q1 2024 or forward contracts that has to be settled.

Yes, FPI inflow form part of the reserve. My point is, CBN is injecting money into the NAFEM window at any price that pleases them.

[quote author=OasisX post=129493514]


[font=serif]......Itsrm-sama. I told you to wait till next MPC press briefing for your worries, guess what?! Cardoso said no need to wait that long. LOL!

Cc User09.

Arise News carried their bad character to Washington and got suitably schooled.

Anyway sha, Headmaster has spoken on reserves: “the elephant in some room” 😂😂😂😂 pic.twitter.com/GiuHiln92I

— Orekelewa (@orekelewa_etc) April 17, 2024

, he actually just confirmed they are defending the currency and hopes they won't need to in the future.

OasisX:


......alright. let's leave out 2023 part. Which Year and Month CBN cleared $7 billlion forex backlogs?!

They cleared the final 1.5bn in March and also received 1.5bn from FPIs. Where did 2.1bn go?

BlueRayDick:
LMAO

Minister for peteroleum for state was asked if FG is paying subsidy and his response is " If Anybody is saying subsidy is being paid , it is left for the person to bring out the facts " even in the face of overwhelming and damning evidence . Almost immediately after that statement he had to admit the pump price is not determined by market forces but he's not willing to discuss what then dictates the price if not market forces .

This just tells u all u need to know about APC government , propaganda and gaslighting . They are inseparable triplets.

The funny thing is, even if you bring Mele Kyari, that's the best you're going to get

Why is it so difficult admitting something that's so obvious? Okay, lets say it makes Tinubu look like a clown after famously declaring subsidy gone. Is that the first time he has gone back on things he said or did?

Maybe they are scared of IMF and the likes not granting them loans if they admit it.

Is the government paying subsidy?

Minister:

Is it true the Tinubu administration has started paying subsidy on petrol as alleged by Nasir El-Rufai? I asked the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil) on #Beyond100Days on @tvcnewsng and here’s what he said. pic.twitter.com/g7bNYeGg9Q

— Nifemi Oguntoye🇳🇬 (@nifemioguntoye) April 16, 2024

OasisX:



.....Yes PBAT administration met $34 billion in our foreign reserve [June 2023], but do we really care whether its being properly managed or not?!

The Administration has made many settlements in Dollars, yet foreign reserve just depleted by $1.2 billion. By the way, Bloomberg is finally a credible source to all parties?! Halleluyah. LOL!

In case una need to know wetin don sup so far;

- This administration paid $500 million Eurobond in July 2023.

- Paid external debt in Q4 - $900 million.

- Paid CBN legacy debt of $7 billion.

- Paid ways and means debt of $4 billion.

- Paid $1 billion to the USA government for weapons in November 2023.

You can google search any of the above for confirmations. Una suppose dey hail PBAT walahi. LOL!

This is from Opebee and it makes no sense. Foreign reserve has gone down 2.1bn IN ONE MONTH.

What has all the payment in 2023 gotten to do with it?

User09:
Hi Itsrm,

I made a mental note to come back to provide more clarity on the bolded and you can see it in the link below.

Take a look at number 3 and you'll see why I'm bringing it up. CBN has no reason to deny the obvious given that it is a major part of its core mandate. Until that claim is made and any evidence is provided, then we can make the association.

So far so good, market participants are yet to see them interfere in the fx rate dynamics

https://www.cbn.gov.ng/aboutcbn/

Thing is, there's nothing else that explains the foreign reserve depleting by 2.1bn in one month. The backlog they paid was 1.5bn. Remember they also claim to have received 1.5bn from FPIs. If 1.5bn from FPIs nets off 1.5bn used to clear backlog, where did 2.1bn go?

Yes, it's their core mandate to use the reserves to defend the currency so the question is why they are hiding it.

My guess, they know the implication of coming out clean which is, people will know the exchange rate is only headed in one direction-downwards.

iamoyindamola:
One or 2 is too small for such investment
I understand paying high for university because of connection and mingling with high profile
But toddlers, nah

These creatures don't have brain of their own yet o

It's more than that.

They can also network with parents, get contracts from the school e.t.c

Ellexy:
No na, they're no longer defending the naira. Our reserve is growing day by day. You obviously don't like the progress this administration is making.

It's only a matter of time before an El Rufai lifts the lid

Make we dey watch

User09:
Did you read the article?. They are also speculating just like most people plus it's a sensational article.

If you read through, you'll realize it's the FX backlog payments which the CBN has already extensively talked about. Like I said, CBN may need to publish it's reserve payment data to set minds at ease.

Bloomberg require subscription to read their articles. If you have read it, you can share screenshots here.

iamoyindamola:
Why pay so much for education of toddlers

Some parents say it's networking and I can't fault their argument.

One or two of those children will become another Seyi Tinubu tomorrow.

One day, the truth will come out.

User09:
Again I have said it or referenced it in my post. If you wanna be headstrong and keep saying the same thing despite no evidence, then by all means continue.

I will say it again, There is no evidence of any intervention in the market by CBN and I still dont know why you keep looking at the drop in reserves despite no known association so far.

You keep looking at news articles without a fundamental understanding of the market. I'll help you just this one time cos i'm getting bored with you regurgitating the same tosh. 2 reasons why the reserves are going down.

1. Debt Repayments - Most of them fell due in the referenced period

2. (Forward) Contracts which are also falling due and being repaid .

You see how easy it is to conduct research and not just take the lazy approach by looking at the reserves data and tying it to the drop in exchange rate.

They will never be open about it. The BM is not just moving the NAFEM by market signaling, I strongly suspect they are still the largest supplier of FX at the NAFEM window at any rate they want but then, like you said I have no evidence. CBN has said they are floating the currency, they will die on that hill.

It's the same with NNPC. They will never publicly admitting to paying subsidy. And you'll never have any evidence to prove otherwise.

Leyqute:
Palmer is on a hattrick already. It would cost him nothing to release the PK so others could score.

Probably learnt from the last one he gave sterling to take.

Besides, Chelsea being 4-0 up means nothing. Can easily end 4-4 at FT and we will be blaming Palmer for not taking the penalty.

OasisX:


......its still a matter of time. ₦800 or ₦750 is the target.

Even lower if possible. That's all we ask for

LordAdam16:
The propaganda was birthed here.
https://nairametrics.com/2024/04/15/naira-opens-shop-below-n1000-against-dollar-at-some-segments-of-black-market/
Zero substance.

-Lord

Junk journalism.

LordAdam16:
It's not yet there.
But if recent history is any indication, this pre-emptive propaganda means the CBN is about to peg the rate at 900/950.

-Lord

Possibly. When it gets there, we will know. For now, it's propaganda

GloriousGbola:
I sold dollar on friday for 1100.
guy first said 1000 or was it 1050

so it is possible imho

Exactly what I explained in my response to Oasisx. If you had been desperate, the first guy would have bought it off you at 1050 and sold at 100 naira premium.

What I do is ask them how much they are selling. Then I remove 10-20 naira and call another I want to sell.

OasisX:
.....its all over X. Ahmad Bashir, former Media Aide to PMB, also confirmed it.

Lol, propaganda

Someone I know desperately needed naira on Friday for some expenses. He reached out to Abokis. Because it was late Friday, Abokis refused to buy since they were not sure what will happen over the weekend due to the current volatility.

Eventually, he got one Aboki who said he will only buy below 1000 for his own safety. He was desperate and went for it. The aboki would have sold it today at more than 200 naira profit on a dollar.

Thing is, if you are desperate or not smart, Abokis will use your head.

Always ask how much the Abokis are selling. That is the true indication of the current price.

OasisX:


.......when Dollar was ₦1900, a bag of rice is sold at ₦80k. Now that Dollar is less down ₦1000 at black market, I guess a bag of rice should be sold at ₦40k before first week of next Month.

Dollar is less than 1000 in which black market?

Jodera:
I still dey vex why we no start Jorginho sef

He will start on Wednesday

Ibime:
Kovacic will be the one winning the league, a more deserving player than Jogginghoe trying to win league off Rice, Saka, Odegaard and Martinelli work

I'm having flashbacks of that Liverpool game where he lost the penalty to give us a chance back into the game. There was another match against Liverpool where Robertson(I believe) brushed him aside like a two year old and raced on to provide an assist.

There's no way anyone with functioning eyes watches Jorginho and thinks he's a good player


I pray for Liverpool resurgence. Don't want Apari near that league again.

Ibime:
Don't cry for me Argentina

Na Jodera I just dey pity. Putting his head on the line for useless players like Jorginho and Harvetz.

WhoDeyHause:
Baba please pray for me.

I never even pray for myself

No special ability is required to know that assnal is a useless team and will always bottle opportunities.

Itsrm:
The assnal I know will bottle it.

Nothing will ever change about Assnal.

If Liverpool should fumble this, Apari will win the league again.