₦airaland Forum

BTC dominance chart... simply put, the percentage total crypt0 market cap fue to bitc0in

The green candles are when betece bullies the market (either by a pump or dump), the red ones are when alyts come to play...

Been observing it for sometime... on the weekly, last weeks close wasn't bullish for betece and it's beginning to bleed this week. Makes me think alyts may get a relief.

Only issue is that on the macro level, it's close to the lowest it has ever been. Definitely, soon enough, it'd start to rip.

Hamzashaf99:
With the hype around SL.P, it won't be bad to pick some. But will betece behave and not nuke again?

Hehe.... hype can be a double edged sword... can make or mar

OffsahBoye:
One thing I've learnt is that
It's easier than done

Many people think of TA,FA they don't consider emotions in trading
When it's going down,you're confused
When it pumps, you're still confused

Confused geng.... confusion all the way

nonut:
Whenever a greedy modafocker loses money in crypt0, he comes here to yap about how crypto is ponzi scheme or gambling. No one cares about what your whiny little ass thinks. Ponzi or gambling, we're making money.

You dey follow dem tok?

The simple thing is to ask them what coyn they bought.... Na there you go hear different odd names....

Ibime:
I jumped on various ALTS but sadly played them for swing profits before the big move of couple of days ago instead of staying in my seat.

Now looking for those that haven't moved majorly in comparison to others. Have taken a seat on CRV. Any other suggestions?

I rebalanced some of my crv portfolio into matic. After I discovered that the going apy for crv on convex is about 50%. Such high apy on coins usually put me of as I see it as inflation.

Also waiting for One... it's yet to move but its last month close against betece wasn't good.

I'm still largely playing sensible alyts on a larger swings. With bitc0in still below the weekly support, most will struggle to make new ATHs. I just see it as an opportunity to compound as I've been doing for a while

My betece I sold at 40k dey look me...

nna777:
Lol. I closed my betc and atom shorts and converted to longs. I think these coming rate hikes have been priced in though. So my best guess is that it will pump and consolidate to higher lows and then higher highs with little dips (the kind we experienced btw Friday n today) except when FOMO kicks in on the high.

I will keep my eyes on the fear n greed index, once it tops 75, I take my profit and prepare for another round of shorts.

Yeah... Bitc0in had been in a downtrend since November... it's likely the rate hike is already priced in....
At this point, whatever the coyn does will not surprise me

ThisisIkemefuna:
It's an experience for me.

Thanks brother. I go apply DCA 'fortunately'. Infact this is the time I really need bad news in the market. (Sheesh!)

Easier said than done.... When the bad news comes, folks will be screaming 10 at the bottom

EmmanuelScott1:
The 28k and 30k shout really make some people miss out, we learn sha

apply DCA

Funny thing is that if bitc0in starts retracing to 33k, u still no go buy. You'd say lower high and still wait for 28k

temitayomie:
That is crypt0 for you

You are scared to buy the dip, you can't resist the temptation to buy the pump.

And the cycle continues...

Operation buy high sell low.

✌️

ThisisIkemefuna:
I can't believe I didn't buy anything in 33k mark.

This is beyond trenches. I'm so disappointed. Come and see analysts confusing human being. Smh

Lol.... Greed exists both ways... Asking for 100k at at 70k and also asking for 25k at 33k....

With bitc0in, it's best not to assume that it has lost support until it does... Same also with resistance.....

If your target was 28k, best DCA spot would have been from 35- 25k.

Mk I shock u small.... Do u know that if bitc0in retraces to 33k next week, u no go buy?

Landowner101:
For the bolded, the money was entrusted in my hand to start up a business (which crypt0 is actually a good business)

Secondly, i sold 50% percent of the coin after posting here yesterday, has the coin still have a lot of potential.

Thanks though, for your wonderful advice.

Kudos for buying on a red day..
One advise that has helped me in crypt0 is this ... When I feel the urge to share wins, then perhaps, that is the time to start taking profits ..

alphaNomega:
Dude I understand Blockchain very well. It does not mean it can't be taken down

You have no idea what blockchain is. That you compare bitc0in to liberty reserve just shows that

alphaNomega:
I don't deal with crypt0currency

You don't know the half of it

Do you know how big liberty reserve and e-gold were before they got taken down?

I don't think you know about them because these were the top ecurrency platforms back in the day. Veterans will know.

Enjoy your transactions while it last

Good man, why are you bothered about folks in crypt0?

Don't worry, they'd lose money and you'd become Dangote.
Are you happy now?

[quote author=AngelicBeing post=110011641][/quote]It's not all party... with significant institutional presence and a mcap of 1 trillion usd, it'd take significantly more to move the market....
For example, a move from 55k to 110k would be a 2x in price but would need an extra trillion.

cherryCola:
Why not use one century candle stick .

ya'all be confusing newbies in this cry.pto game,
how will he know when to buy the dip on a one year
chart .

Some of you are annoying. If you do not understand whatever I wrote and cannot search it out, then ask.

That you're new is not an excuse to be d*mb and not learn the phrases associated in an industry you want to trade. If I want to actively trade stocks and I done know the meaning of PE ratio, divedends or how to valuate a stock. Or I want to go into real estate and I don't know what deed of assignment e.t.c mean.

If you plan to be active in crypt0, then learn the lingua. If you plan to trade passively, then no need... You can buy bitc0in at whatever price and go to sleep

alphaNomega:
What makes a shitcoin?

You'll be surprised when it happens.

I hope it doesn't but I won't be surprised when it does.

Jokes apart, if you're this scared, you should reconsider being in crypt0.

BTW, what people are you worried about that control bitc0in?

Rizin:
I like your explanations. It's well detailed and nice too. But you are giving remadies to the wrong people. The people that can implement them are not on nairaland.

Never say never. A number of times, things have been discussed here (e.g the CBN giving cheap forex to BDC operators) and soon after, its carried and popularised by mainstream media. This then forces the hand of the Government. Eitherway, as patriotic citizens, we should at least be vocal if we believe our Government has stepped out of line

AirBay:
What do you guys think of eith? Is it a good buy at the moment?

It's just off the back of a 50% rally and now at a resistance zone... I wouldn't be in a hurry to bid. I'm holding out for another dip to the 2k zone to form a double bottom before a more sustained rally....

One scenario would be a capitulation wick to say 1700. That'd clear this whole 2-4k range and give the much needed breakout impetus....

All said, it can still pump from here... Though I'd rather some more consolidation

You trade this market long enough and sometimes in dicey situations, you ask yourself what's the best way the market can leave majority offside?

With this current pump, it's obvious that very few number of folks waiting to buy the dip actually bought the lows. But then, bulls seems to have got too euphoric too soon.

So I ask, what if the coin starts a slow bleed from here or first pumps a bit to say 43-45 k to further convince folks that the bottom is in. That'd make people on the sidelines to either fomo or place bids at 40k hoping on a retest. A slow bleed from that level downwards will kill whatever conviction is left of bulls. While the few bears who are still on the sidelines will start calling the pump a bull trap/lower high and ask for sub-30k numbers.... If this bleed continues over the next weeks into the 30-33k range then whatever pump that happens after this will leave majority in disbelief... An illustration below

Mk una no mind me... I'm just playing the devils advocate.

Putting the numbers in perspective, I'd highlight some facts with the hope of putting the matter to bed.

1. The GDP growth has averaged about 4%
2. The annual population growth is 2.5% which eats up most of the GDP growth. Hence the effective growth is just over 1%

3. Over the last year, money supply increased by 13.8%. This is effectively new money pushed into the system.
4. Our revenue and effective GDP growth are less than 2%. This means that this new money is not backed by economic activity or demand.
5. Law of economics states that supply outstripping demand = inflation. Also in this case devaluation.

6. The nation last year spent about 76% of income servicing debts
7. Despite spending most of revenue servicing debts, the government has continued to borrow locally at exorbitant rates of about 13%.
8. As projected economic growth and revenue cannot keep up with the borrowing rates, the only way the government can keep up is by printing new money.

9. New money being streamlined into non-productive sectors will only make infllation worse

10. Lastly, excessive new money being printed takes us back to stage 3

Repeat stage 3 - 10 fast enough and you get a Venezuela. So far, the government has shown that it intends to keep borrowing rates high as inflation rises. This will only serve to fertilize the process above...


This is not me whining... I'm just stating facts. Some of these are why the naira has devalued by 300% to the usd over the past 7 years alone. As individual investors, we invest to beat inflation. When we're done, all we can hope for is that what's left of the nation will enable us spend our profits in peace.

Olaide1295:
Boss, why would repaying domestic debt not be an issue? Because the CBN can print new money to meet the obligations?

Seems to me like there is no easy way out. Any solutions?

Hehe.... You answered the question... What's more detrimental is that the new money is not being tied to capital expenditure or productivity rather, it's spent to keep borrowing rates high.

Of course, buying government debt of a weak currency can many times be detrimental unless macroeconomic measures have been put in place to reverse inflation. Foreign portfolio investors who rushed to buy CBNs TBs in 2014- 2016 cos of the 'juicy rates' we're burnt badly. Most were practically begging to leave with about half of their initial investment.

Regarding solutions, a number of things can be done
1. Government waste needs to be cut down significantly, this will allow the masses accept tightening measures down the line
2. Petrol subsidy removal/Dangote refinery- self explanatory
3. Borrowing rates should be cut down to help stem inflation. Bond rates shouldn't chase inflation.
4. New money should be tied to production
5. The tax base could still be improved in sensible ways....

Olaide1295:
I have learnt a lot from this forum over the past years.

.....

Its been discussed at length before. Repaying domestic debts would not be an issue and foreign debts are still within sensible limits. OTOH, that over three-quarter of revenue generated is used in servicing debt is a comcern.

To put things in perspective, money supply (i.e new money) increased by over 13% last year. While this was not uncommon around the globe, what's rather unique is that our government has also shown that a significant proportion of this new money will be used to continue borrowing at high rates.

From economics, we know that in a population, the first recipients of new money benefit the most as they get and utilise their share before the resulting inflation eliminates the buying power of those down the line. So for an individual, the bond offering presents a safe and sensible investment. For the nation, whether that's the best way to spend is anyones guess

One thing I've noticed is that people underestimate what bitc0in has achieved and it's corresponding potential.

To give a perspective, let's take away the controversial name 'bitc0in ' and replace it with asset A.
Asset A came into existence roughly a decade ago promising to revolutionise how value is transacted and held. Of course, many took it to be a joke initially. It has progressively exploded in adoption and within 10 yrs is now traded 24/7 in hundreds of countries around the globe. It has challenged the concept of fiat as we know it forcing central banks and governments worldwide to either try to replicate, adopt, regulate or control it. Right now, it has an ever increasing institutional backing with many looking at how to extend adoption.
I might not own such an asset but wouldn't be betting against it.

Bitc0in is not given enough credit for what it has achieved. In 12 years, it has grown from zero to a high of 1.3 trillion USD.....
Today at almost 800 billion USD, it sits at number 9 on the list of traded assets by market capitalisation. To put things in perspective, the traded market cap of all the companies listed on NSE was valued at about 50 billion USD as of the last time I checked. That was why when folks attributed a previous bitc0in dip to the CBN ban, I just smilled. The total naira in circulation is far less than the current mcap of bitc0in

skydiver01:
All valid points. That is what some investing is about - taking risks with the objective of making money. One concern I have is not bitc0in as an asset class but the vulnerability of bitc0in/crypt0 wallets to theft. Plus I still suspect most global central banks will not allow any crypt0 asset to be used as an alternative to their currencies as a means of payment. As such, I expect crypt0s will fade out in the coming years following more regulation. Right now and up till now its been a cowboys markets. India & China have banned crypt0s and I expect more large countries will follow. Nevertheless, I wish all investors great fortunes from whichever assets they to invest in.

First, if your concern is about theft, there are hardware wallets that are very safe. You can withdraw your bitc0in into them and only transfer out when you want to sell.

If bitc0in was going to fade out, it'd have done that in 2017 and not now. The understandable knee-jerk reaction for some central banks like ours have been to ban crypt0 and when they see how ineffective that is, they turn around and regulate. This is the case with India who have now legalised crypt0. Western nations have made it clear that they're interested in regulating the space. That has been a big win for crypt0 as due to the regulatory clarity, institutions have poured in billions into bitc0in.

You might not have been following the news, but adoption of crypt0 and blockchain over the past year has been staggering. Many US banks now offer crypt0 services to clients, Facebook (now Meta) is betting its future on blockchain and is testing a payment remittance service powered by crypt0. Twitter, PayPal, Visa, Mastercard e.t.c have all ventured massively into the space. A number of companies, investment funds and councils/local areas now own bitc0in as part of their balance sheet. The U.S. has been clear that they have no interest in banning bitc0in and even want to make some transactions tax free. The UK has been keen on generating revenue from the industry. Spanish banks have petitioned their central bank to provide clarity and allow them offer crypt0 services. There are loads more that I can’t even remember

ojesymsym:
Using your graph, its seems it has a 4 year cycle. If that pattern is correct then there should be a pull back or loss in value this year. Right?

The approximate 4 year decline is due to the issuance of new bitc0in being halved in an approximate 4 year pattern. With a rising global demand and falling supply, this makes bitc0in deflationary hence the rallies result in that pattern.

Of course this pattern wouldn't continue forever and last year has shown that. The last rally was not as intense as most had projected. Also, there are an increasing number of institutions in the space who invest wisely and an increasing number of retail folks have gone past the stage of wondering if crypt0 will go to zero or not and are investing with a longer time frame hence are willing to hold through dips.

In summary, so far, there has been not been an intense rally to warrant the kind of 4yrly decline we say in the past. But irrespective of what happens over the next year, the important thing is that bitc0in will generally trend up with time

On bitc0in, one phrase I've seen alot recently is something like if x price is not hit, then I'm bearish below x. When I look at the range they're quoting, it's usually between 50-100%.

Reminds me of last June/July at 30k with all the post saying I'm bearish below 55k .... Imagine not buying at 30k but later buying almost a 2x move at 60k...

People trade differently but with bitc0in I wouldn't want to wait until bitc0in has done a 100% move before I buy....

Many people want to trade bitc0in like they'd trade alyts. With bitc0in its all about risk to reward.

My rational for buying weeks back at 40k was simple- even if that level didn't hold, it's likely that bitc0in will bounce off 30k to retest it before any further continuation downward. I can then sell if I'm not comfortable with the market. Same goes for averaging in at say 30k rather than waiting for 20k

jedisco:
Seems this space is divided between those who are waiting for any small pump to take their money and run... and those who are patiently waiting for 20-28k...

Let us settle it via a poll.

Like if you can'twait for a pump to exit some positions...

Share if you're well seated in stables and waiting for capitulation

Hehe... I don't think we're done with the lows but for those largely sitting in stables. If your target was to buy bitc0in and you hadn't started averaging in around 33k, chances are you'd not have bought even if your 28k target was hit... It'd be much more difficult to buy bitc0in at 23k than 33k...

I consciously stayed off discussions on this pullback here as I didn't want to go repeating most of what I said in late May last year. At that time we had multiple threads on fp on how bitc0in wrecked folks, same also here mostly by those who didn't own bitc0in. I said something then and I'd repeat it now,

At 30k usd, the way I see buying bitc0in as a Nigerian is simple. If I buy 0.5 bitc0in for about 10 million naira, I can put that bitc0in in a savings account and earn interest of between 5-8% apr on it.

Add that to the fact that devaluation of the naira has been ongoing. If the naira devalues at 10% per annum against the dollar (as has been the case) and the value of bitc0in remains same, then thats about 16% per annum on my bitc0in naira value.

Finally, if within the next four years, bitc0in sells for 70kusd (an extremely modest estimate), I can decide to liquidate my holdings for a handsome profit.

Same will hold true whether bitc0in goes to 20k usd tomorrow or not. To me, the risk comes with not owning bitc0in

skydiver01:
Meanwhile, Bitc0in is down ~50% over the last 3 months. Russia announced a few days ago that it intends to ban crypt0currencies (trading and mining) like China and India who have banned crypt0currencies resulting in Bitc0in falling from ~$68k in November 2021 to currently ~$35k. Ouch... I imagine the party will truly be over when Europe implements its intention to ban them all.

The last selloff wasn't due to a supposed Russian ban (which never happened). It was more due to response to macroeconomic policies by the us govt to fight inflation. Effect can be seen across most global markets. Russia is actively working towards a framework to help bitc0in miners operate in their country. Bitc0in has been made legal in India. Western nations are fine-tuning regulations around bitc0in so that folks who own them can pay taxes and institutions can offer them as products. Already, an increasing number of western banks now allow folks to buy bitc0in in app.

If I put 1k away anytime someone predicted bitc0in will go to zero, by now I'd have over a million in that box.

This is the bitc0in returned ROI over the past 10 years, for a market moving that quick, volatility is bound to occur. And guess what? That volatility is what many see and new opportunity and why some of us are in crypt0

Awon 20keks gang... abi 28k....
Finally, the 28k trade was overcrowded.
I was targeting 30k and above and if 30k failed, then 25k and below.

Jokes apart, though many missed this move, I don't think we're out of the woods just yet.

jedisco:
Finally, it's good to be safe...

I was torn between Ada at 1, Luna at 60 and Avax at 60... Went with Avax cos of its market cap... Either way it's a swing trade with a stoploss in place

Later removed the stoploss from this and let it be as 60 was a good entry on Avax. Hoping to take most profit at 80 and the rest close to 90... Plan is to hopefully buy back at 60 in the coming weeks for a longer-term hold.

Most alyts look broken on HTF... Until bitc0in start closing above its weekly support, I expect most to struggle

jedisco:
Watched this pattern on betece hourly chart today.

It's not a classic bull flag but after a first rally up, and consolidation, a second rally to the upside usually ensues. If this resolves to the upside, then the target would be 40k.
At that point, I'd like to shave off some of the betece I bought earlier at 40k until market conditions become clearer.... aim would be to rebuy lower... Market is choppy and many trapped folks are looking to escape the market. I imagine many are targeting 40k to sell or short. Some would already be selling at a loss...

I'm unsure if 33k is the bottom or not. Either way, even if it is, it'd be tested multiple times. In these market conditions, no need to fomo. Just target coins that have had a good bounce and aim for them on the next red market day....

The hourly didn't resolve as expected- became choppy but 40k has been hit.

Closed my earlier buys for little profit as planned. May seem too early but that was my plan and I'm riding it.

All said, It's not everyday bitc0in pumps or sells off over 10%. Reason why following the crowd on such days is usually fatal